 Good morning and welcome to the weekly market update with me David Maddon. Today's date is Monday of the 11th January 2021 and the time has just gone 8.59 GMT and it's been a reasonably negative start to the European trading session With a mixed session in Asia overnight We've had a pullback in European extra markets today in the grand scheme of things The the losses that we're seeing in the Europe in the European market and the in Europe are relatively small It compares into the very impressive gains that were wrapped up last week last week. We saw the footsie at a cash aid Ten month high with an all-time high on the backs the major US indices They they said all-time highs the back end of last week the Nikkei 225 Had its highest in three deck in 30 years. So, you know back in the back in the last week. We did have a very strong Sentiment full of sentiment was very strong at new markets now. We seem to have a bit of a pullback it seems to me that Treasure a little concerns about the COVID-19 Coronavirus crisis back a bit to the forefront But you know keep my there's gonna be ebbs and flows in relation to this The really kind of story of the last few days has been that The full of sentiment has been fueled by the belief that the future of Biden Administration is going to introduce additional stimulus packages as a way to kind of boost the economy No, keep in mind the back end December the Democrats and the Republicans Agreed a nine hundred hundred on nine hundred billion dollar COVID-19 crisis relief package But before the before the deal was struck back in the October November The Democrats are pushing for a much larger amount to the view is that We're gonna have we tend to we're gonna see further stimulus coming from the Democrats now that the Democrats Have control not only of the activity that the presidency they already had control of the lower house and They now have a tiny majority in the upper house. So David control of the US government Hence why we saw a major moves in a global stocks quickly US stocks at the back in the last week Also at the back in the last week in a reasonably mixed US known from heroes report the headline figure was very disappointing But the positive revision to the to the November trading and the unemployment rate remained You know people the report was one hand. It wasn't so bad That would if we can already spur on we need more stimulus But the same time it wasn't so good to say, oh, you know what the US economy doesn't need extra stimulus So it's kind of somewhere in between clean as always with this video. What I'll do is I'll take a look at the week head article I run to the major economic and corporate stories of the week And then I go through the major major markets indices currencies and modern East face No, the week at our article can be found on our website Giving off under a CMC markets calm under insights and then and if they're latest news and analysis so overnight we had CPI figures and also keep you I figures from China both show all came in better than expected So it would seem that demand is a touch as ever so slightly on the rise in China All these coming from a very low base Later this week on Thursday, we're gonna have trade data from China and that's gonna be really important because It's gonna give us indication the imports component We'll give us an indication of what in turn the man is like in China now in many regards China has made a decent recovery from the COVID-19 crisis They can a huge economic collapse that happened in the back of it But you know, for example retail sales aren't earned I'm back to get a free COVID levels and this would be good indication of What is internal demand like in China on the extra and the exports component of Chinese Chinese trade numbers? That's obviously the kind of global external demand, but keep in mind China is a major manufacturer supplier of personally protective equipment PPE so the last few months a lot of the Good Export readings are often down in the fact that governments around the world are buying in healthcare or medical and health care items from China JD sports those figures were actually brought forward. They were announced this morning They were they were originally penciled in for Tuesday. It's quite annoying how companies do that It makes planning calendars quite tricky But nonetheless, they had a good set of numbers today and that they were optimistic that they can exceed The current market expectations of their share price hit a fresh all-time high this morning, but it's ever so slightly pull back since sticking with the retail theme a Sauce and first board numbers coming out on Wednesday on Wednesday We will we have a person in the house building company. They have their over the fourth water numbers Following on we'll have four quarter numbers also coming out from Taylor Wimpy the homeowner during the week We've a number of in US and economic reports this week with US CPI with the beige book We also the retail sales and the retail sales is going to be probably the one that's going to be most in focus You know, it's coming for the month of December Therefore people are going to be looking where American consumers in the year of the cold with 19 crises where they have to go out And spend money at Christmas. That's going to be the real kind of litmus test for our consumer activity Speaking of consumer activity associated British foods you own the owner of Primark They have their first quarter numbers coming out on on Thursday Primark is a very successful business They do do quite what they do very well the problem is they don't have an online section I'm with that there and other on the front line when it comes to lockdowns Whereas ASOS who already mentioned and boo who will be coming out in a second are very prominent on the online fashion sector Speaking of boo who they also have third quarter numbers coming out on Thursday They're one of the companies like ASOS that have cleaned up during the pandemic in that They're online fashion house. So funds and business that have ordinarily gone on the high streak is directed towards the at the online business Donnell have second quarter numbers coming out on Thursday. Thursday. We get the preliminary reading of German GDP for the entire year of 2020 Tesco have third have third quarter numbers coming out on Thursday. Keep in mind that you know just gone The last few days we've heard from M&S. We've been saying grease and we've heard from Morrison's and you know Common theme is that you know food sales surprise surprise has been I think what has been quite has been quite good Coming on to the end for the other week on Friday We have UK GDP for the month of November and also the services output for the month of November As you post very end of the week We will be kicking off US reporting season the major US banks JP Morgan Well, Spargel and city group will all be posting their forward numbers and just keep in mind In the most recent quarter the third quarter the size of the bad death's provision dropped considerably in comparison with the second quarter The US bank so that may be kind of a common theme clearly wondering are we going to see a continuation of that? Or was it the case that the relatively low numbers for bad deaths penciled in in the second in the third quarter was actually a mistake? Excuse me starting off with the indices that take a look at the footsie 100 That's I mentioned in the video at the very beginning The footsie 100 has been in a solid upper trend like other global stock markets Last week towards the back end the last week I racked up a 10 month high Friday session was relatively muted and today it's a bit lower and So the charting point of view is that exactly a surprise that we're seeing a relatively small range? The last couple of sessions the long wait on Thursday's candle indicates a bit of indecision Now not to say that the mark is going to completely turn over on itself But it could just mean that we might see the market trade sideways or the the upward trend could continue, but at a slower pace Nonetheless the markets remains in its upward trend if it continues to press on higher from here because we're currently trading around 6,848 if you continue to press on higher from here We could really looking at retaking 6,900 and if you go beyond that and if you take out the last week's high You know 6,957 if you go beyond that because every head looking up looking up towards 7,000 And he moved to the downside could find support for this general zone here 6,600 or north of it up towards 6,678 so this entire belt here could act as support Should we see a move lower? And even if you go below that you could likely heading back down towards this blue line here the fifth Moving average which comes into play at 6,386 and notice how it actually nicely is both Resistance and also support in early November. So if a metric has been important in the past it makes it more likely It'll be of importance in the future As I mentioned the top of the video that the DAX in a record high Back in the last week of Friday It's not a huge surprise they were seeing a bit of a pullback today and I think really focusing on this particular candle We can see here on Monday's candle. Obviously today as in Today's candle hasn't finished yet because today's training session hasn't finished yet But it looks if you look at the shape of this candle so far so far This candle this place candle has the potential to be a daily bearish reversal in that We can see that the body of the candle here This kind of red rectangle completely engulfs So far as in pretty engulfing Yet the positive candle that we saw on Friday So should that be the case should be getting a couple of clothes further below the open of last Friday I'm sure they should the red rectangle entirely in golf but maybe the previous day is positive Candle we could that could be the indication that we're going to see a bit of a pullback in the near term And should that be the case because like heading back down toward this zone here down around 13,600 And if you have a fairly decent move below that you can take us back down towards But back down towards 13,000 itself So if you head back lower, we could be heading towards 13,600 and you have a pretty decent move for the downside You could look a heavy back down towards this blue line here the fifthly moving average at 13,221 Keep in mind the broader train is very much the upside upside like I said we posted a record high on Friday So, you know, let's not forget the wider train is very much to the upside So if you continue to move on higher front here, you could be looking at retaking 14,000 and if you go beyond that we could then be looking at retesting the kind of the all-time highs kind of up around 14,134 and then beyond that looking towards 14,200 300 and so on and so forth Take a look now what's going on over the US similar scenario very bullish very bullish moves recently seen in US indices all-time highs were achieved on Friday We can see here on Friday's candle We did it and an all-time high was hit with the relative given that they the week on Friday's candle is fairly long It could have not have been a decision Once again, not to say that the market's going to really turn over on itself But it could be a sign that we might see that a slight bit of trading for a while or Could be the case that the upward drinking continues, but just at a lower pace But then again, there's also the possibility it could have a bit of a pullback and should a pullback It could look heading back down toward this area here around 30,271 and if you go below that Keep an eye for the kind of cycle and she born 30,000 Well, you know, let's not lose sight of the fact that the markets in a very strong upper trend Record high will see it only in the previous trading trading session. So Let's let's keep that in mind So if you're going to move higher from here and if you retake Friday's high We know would then be in the territory of New all-time highs and when you're in the territory of getting new all-time highs more More all-time highs you hit the more likely you are going to continue to keep writing up record gains It's the same situation with the s&p 500 All-time high was achieved on Friday. We've pulled back ever so slightly in today's session And if you continue to press on that from here and if you retake Friday's side, we're going to be, you know Heading up towards, you know in the more kind of medium term in the direction of 3,900 Any kind of decent pullbacks that we see in the s&p 500 Could find support from this zone here that run 3,700 And if you do have a fairly size of a pullback You could look ahead and back down towards this blue line here If you have to remove the average in a 3,637 and even if you go below that the lows of Give a look at retesting the lows of late november in a 3,594 So one of the kind of themes or one of the kind of big kind of themes in the currency markets in the last few sessions Has been a turnaround in the u.s. Dollar Probably best shown here on the on euro dollar whereby It wasn't that long ago only last week We saw euro dollar hit its highest level in over two and a half years And then we've had a couple of we've had a few negative days in a row and if you look at the candle On thursday, we can see that that the body of this red candle here this red rectangle engulfs that of the the positive body Of the daily candle on wednesday So it could be that this this seems to me this could be a bearish daily reversal We have been moving lower which is is going to add weight To the view that it is a daily bullish reversal And if you continue to move lower from here We could be looking at retesting the lows of early late december in one spot 21 29 And if you ever break below that you can look ahead back down towards the lows in early december In around one spot 20 58 and then below that keep an eye out for the kind of psychology for one spot 20 mark no The market has been in a fairly strong upper trend the last few months. So this isn't to say that you know You know Daily bullish reversal is may not necessarily to a completely turned around to the currency pair It could just mean that we were the size of the poll deck before the broader trend continues and should have been the case We could then be looking at retesting the highs of the only last week at one spot 23 49 And if you go beyond that we could then be looking at heading up towards one spot 24 80 and keep in mind We haven't seen one spot 24 80 since march 2018 Take a look now at pound dollar low. It's a similar situation in that a pound dollar hits highest level in over two and a half years And then we've been drifting lower, but the move to the downside in pound dollar hasn't been as aggressive as the move to the downside In euro dollar house. So similar situation here We're by only this day last week in its highest level in over two and a half years It's been moving lower ever ever since If you continue to drift lower, we could be looking at retesting the lows of late december in a one spot 34 29 If go below that you could be looking at target is blue line here the fifth of the movie average in one spot 33 55 and notice how on a couple occasions In december and the 11th and also the 21st Fifth of the movie average acted nicely as support now granted The currency pair interested every source slightly below it and nonetheless acted nicely as support And as I said before if a metric has been significant in the past it makes it more likely it'll be of significance in the future But once again, let's not forget the broader up for trend that's been in play So if you continue to if the kind of upward trend continues and it resumes if we if we manage to retest and retake The highest that we're seeing in january, we can then be looking at targeting one spot 37 92 and similar situation we haven't seen one spot 37 92 since We haven't seen that metric since April 2018 and if you go beyond that level of one spot 37 92 we could then be looking at heading up towards 140 Tying in with the strength of the u.s. Dollar And also recently the very strong strong move seen in global stock markets I would take a look at gold because gold is trading us dollars lately Gold like other major commodities oils Those copper platinum palladium are trading dollars, but more recently be there's been a strong inverse relationship between gold and the u.s. Dollar So whenever there's been a decent move in any direction in the dollar that's often impacted gold And part of the reason why gold has such a negative day on friday was partially because of the overall Risk concept and stock markets are doing well as we just saw so traders were less interested in assets that are deemed to be low risk But on top of that the turnaround and rebound that we've seen in the u.s. Dollar Maybe as um has made dollars more extensive therefore has made it more expensive to buy gold So we've seen extra pressure put on the u.s. Stock on the gold market on friday We had a very aggressive Move to the downside You can see that it closed above us to a degree of the average today's session So far there's a very long week on this candle which indicates once again indecision So it seems to me like a market trying to figure out which way do we go If you hold above the 30 moving average in 1837 because we're currently at 1850 If you can hold above that, you know, they can off trend that we've seen since december Is likely to continue and should we can move higher from here? We could be looking at targeting this yellow line here What are the moving average at 1892 and if you take all that level and if you take that 1900 We can then be looking up towards the highs in early january in an 1859 It is worth noting though that we've you know the broader trends the last few months You know go to a record high in august, but ever since there's been trending lower what you've seen Excuse me a lower low a lower high Excuse me a lower low a lower high So the trend for the last few months has been to the downside although in a more near term the trend has been higher So if gold doesn't move lower have you take out say The take out 1800 we can then be looking at retesting the lows of late november In an 18 sorry 1764 and if you go below that we can then be looking at targeting the lows of late of late of late june which come into play In at 1747 And lastly coming on to Oil starting at taking a look at brain crude oil So brain crude oil has been strong upward trend The overall kind of bullet sentiment of the market has been a factor in it, but the real driver I was the recent announcement last week at south arabia a volunteer to cut off In march circuit February march by one million barrels per day. So that really jolted The energy market to the upside Only on friday a fresh 10 month line was achieved and in fact an evening today's the early hours of today's session Looks like the new 10 month line was achieved. So we're sort of very much in the upward trend Currently we're kind of off the highs of the session. It's not been turning a shock to see a bit of ebb and flow, but The overall trend is positive. We're currently trading at 55 spot 32 If the broad upward trend continues, we could be looking at targeting 60 bucks per barrel Don't really the next big cycle on chicken number to keep and keep an eye Keep in mind We haven't seen that metric really since the middle of february. So just around the time the covid-19 crisis was becoming a major factor for the west If you do drift lower in the oil markets, we could look ahead back down towards 52 or the lows of early january in around 50 spot 57 50 spot 53 Thank you for listening. I have a good that's all from this video. Have a good training week and good luck You