 All right, so welcome to our webinar on the feature of media Ross Dawson is joining us from Sydney, Australia So it's quite late there for him Nighttime inspiration, I suppose Rossi want to do a short greeting Welcome everyone great to be engaged. Sorry for the delay and look forward to having a great conversation about the future of media Great. So again the way we're going to do this is we're going to do a short presentation trying to not make it too long About eight to ten minutes each maybe even less Then afterwards we're going to publish all the material on Ross and gird and Ross calm Good and Ross Thomas a tumblr blog. We just started For some of the new stuff that we're doing together with the futures experience and helping companies sort of shape their future in media We're also going to publish the entire audio track and the slides here from from the seminar. Okay, so Have you said that I'm going to jump right in if you have questions use the question box, please If you do want to actually say something we can give the microphone to you after the presentations. Okay The sound is okay, I suppose Okay, please use the chat box if you have any feedback or questions and Ross is going to be Active the whole time as well in terms of the audio so he can also chime in. Oh here. We got More questions. Okay. Good. Good. Can you post the is a question? Can you post the links in which you're referring? Yes, we can we'll do that all now. So let's get into it I'm going to switch to full screen on the slide if it's not looking right then, please let me know This is the first time we're actually doing this and should be fine. So Anything else you want to add Ross? No, no, it's comfort and a little bit make it a conversation. Okay, great. So You see the slide full screen now, I guess right nothing else Yeah, okay, good start here. Okay. So Ross Dawson is at Ross Dawson on Twitter. I am G Leonhardt Let's explain briefly what we do and we're basically dealing with four sides We're not making predictions as futurists We're we're trying to build future scenarios for our client to reinvent what they do in publishing and media technology Telecom, you know record labels music publishers magazines Broadcasts and so on you can see it at Ross Dawson dot-com and media futures dot-com and of course on Gordon Ross dot-com We'll launch you a whole bunch of new stuff future experience seminars Starting September will be going on the road together Ross and myself to help companies all over the world Trying to figure out scenarios for the future of media So I'm gonna get right into the next slide shows you basically what's happening in the future of media I think we're shifting starting with music and also with motion pictures now from A world of ownership owning CDs and DVDs to a world of access which is a huge fundamental shift You know starting if you look at news for example owning a newspaper and looking at the ad in the newspaper is whole different Proposition than having an app Ross feel free to chime in if you You're always on here, right? So the biggest trend here is the social local mobile You know the the Facebook doctrine and cloud and video and this changes the entire equation of who creates content Who pays for content what we pay in general? We can say that having access to content reduces the value of a unit sale like DVD or Or CDs to almost 80 to 90 percent the different Different embodiments for example if you buy a book it's 15 euros if you buy a Kindle book right now It's maybe 12 euros or so. It's a lot cheaper, but very soon. It'll be two euros because of the The friction that occurs in this of the non friction rather than a course in this new chain Next slide shows you the how I look at it. It's basically connecting the crowd in the cloud You've helped me speak about this before it's this is a crucial business model is that basically all our media is moving into the cloud Some of it will be printed and made into physical products, you know for quite some time But that's not a real growth area you can imagine so connecting the cloud to smart devices is a huge business I think we can all be very hopeful for this because all of a sudden our cost of distribution are Going towards zero, but of course then again the cost of attention is higher. So This is a challenge Connecting the crowd, but I think there's a lot of new business models like making sense out of stuff sense making curation filtering packaging Next slide shows you how I look at I think that basically we're heading into a multiple screen future Where people are using best screen available wherever they are to do whatever they want Whether it's a Ted video or a bank transaction or look at my health records or or watching a video or blogging And that's going to be the next five years is going to see that You know when smart devices become something like ten dollars to buy Like we can already buy the our cash tablet in India for thirty five dollars, which is an Android tablet So that's going to be a huge opportunity to figure out how to monetize will really take some ingenious doing because Clearly the business models of selling copies are pretty much unsustainable not not in general terms everywhere But in many other terms the next slide is also very important You know we have to really as if you meet our business You have to get out of the silo of thinking yourself as being in content or publishing and the other guys are the telco guys And you know the opponents are Google and the others. That's really no longer true. We don't live on silos anymore In fact, I think the biggest opportunity in the future is teaming up with telcos technology internet companies and creating new licensing standards if I has have proposed for digital music many times So good on that one. So I guess what in what way or where are you seeing that? The telcos are becoming media companies that's happening in quite a few ways I mean where are you seeing the most interesting parts of the telcos? moving to become Media companies and publishers. Well, you know, I call this a telemedia thing Basically, what's happening is is that in Europe and America? It's quite hard for telcos to change what they are because of regulation and because they're so traditionally ingrained and make it so much money But in developing countries, you know Brazil, Russia, India, China and Indonesia All telcos are realizing that if they if all they do is connect people for phone calls and data That business model is not sustainable SMS will die All right, because clearly if we have a data plan, why do we need that SMS? That's just a question of habit. So you see companies like Telcom Indonesia that I work with you see Singapore telecom You see oil in Brazil looking at ways of bundling content media Advertising and creating a whole new business model, which doesn't mean that they're going to become studios, you know Film studios, but they're going to become platforms for content And this is a huge opportunity provided that we are able to find sort of public licensing standards That are not going to be subject to jumping through hoops, you know as the music industry has proven is a bad model I mean, I think you see this in Australia happening with Telstra, right? Are they heading in this direction as well, don't they? Yeah, absolutely and I guess more and more Telcos have you know media or content divisions by name and This was one of the critical aspects here is Whoever controls the access to the home in terms of particularly well the pipes and the interfaces So the interfaces are critical the connectivity So the set top box or whatever it is that's can channel Content through to the home entertainment or the multiple screens in the home is an enormously powerful Situation so depending on the country we're seeing either The telcos or the cable providers or sometimes the ISPs Well, certainly all of them You know tried positioning themselves to be that Conjured to be that hub that which can then be the aggregator of the content providers And that's where telcos are a very strong position But some have been better and more successful than others in putting themselves in that Yeah, I mean, you know there Yeah, they're in a strong position, but of course on the other hand, they're really worried about the content industry basically Stipulating really licensing deals that just can't be fulfilled as we have seen again in music, right? So so the main thing is I think for the content industry is to realize that a 3.5 trillion dollar industry Which is telco, you know Is the perfect vehicle to promote and sell content and find new business models because after all when you have five billion people Connected to smart devices, you know, there is money in there, right? So the the critical thing that is here has the power and so this is So for example we're seeing that because you know Apple's iTunes is Base well, it's you know, they do have Not quite pricing power over the content providers though It is they do have a certain, you know In certain categories they do and so they're supposed depending on the content category and on the types of media We're seeing this different play between the amount of power of the content provider and the aggregator And I think we're seeing the shift more towards video where the aggregator or the distributor of content has far more pricing power whereas we still haven't seen that erosion certainly in the Hollywood or You know, there's certainly the contemporary music yet that the interface that play of power and pricing power is Shifting in more and more towards that aggregator of those who are flowing that through to the final buyer Yeah, I mean the pricing power is clearly shifting towards the consumer, you know, what are they willing to pay? You know, which is the freemium stuff, of course and of course the platforms But at the same time, you know, Apple isn't a telco, right? So I mean Apple Apple has succeeded in creating a fake empire of fake solutions, you know That some of us really like including myself, you know But it's not really a solution to the issue of media delivery, right? Because they sell hardware in the back of the offering. We'll get back to this later Let's go on the next slide, you know, I think very important is that selling digital content really means that that there's a Significant value reduction in unit sales, you know, that's basically suck on the money down the down the pipeline here And as the as Rory Shutherland has quoted, you know, what we are prepared to pay It's completely subjective and incredibly contextual So we have to find models that work in a digital environment because if we if we compare the CDs and DVDs And even cable TV, you know the the revenues are one-tenth So so there needs to be a new Generator and Kevin Kelly talks about the new generatives and and Ross will talk about that in a slide later creating value around the content Paywall I there's a short slide here taking from click surf, which I find really good You know the the problem is my view not the pay It's the wall in other words if we find smarter ways to upsell people into paying they will make a payment I mean look at Dropbox look at Flickr look at LinkedIn which people are paying for I mean look at all the stuff that we're seeing in the content arena whether it's the various apps like the the one that I like to use which is the Borneo Bonnier app It's popular mechanic or the economist or so on you know, it's not really the the people aren't willing to pay Is that we haven't found a really smart way to get them to the payment process as you see in the slide And the next one has a summary basically. I think we need to think about pay will not pay wall And that is the sure way to money I mean if people are paying for firm bill, they are paying for Netflix They're paying for even for Google the cloud servers now. I mean they're paying for lots of things So it's about pay will not pull pay wall and I think pay walls may work in very few situations But by and large, I will not and I predicted the New York Times For example, we'll have not much success with it despite the current 900,000 subscribers Next slide shows you what I call reason to pay. This is taken from Tech Dirt The most important thing is if you're going to ask for money online, you have to have reason to pay Why are people paying? You know, is it more convenient? Is it quicker? Do you love the brand like New York Times, you know has the highest price of all the paid services? It's basically about finding a reason to pay and then and then converting it at the highest possible number But if you don't have a reason to get paid then it's extremely difficult I think many ways newspapers for example I realize you know when they switched to digital that they weren't that relevant to begin with some of them at least And that's where they can't convert. This is a real issue because you know when you have a market monopoly like broadcasters or many newspapers Then when that's blowing apart all of a sudden you're realizing you know that people were there because of the monopoly This short slide here premium feels like free new generative. That's sort of my marching order here for the content business Creating access based model that feels like free In many ways that is Spotify or Pandora and then upselling to other values Ross will talk more about that as well great list in the next slide from Kevin Kelly talking about the new Generatives and and I know that lots of these things have to be created. You know, they don't really exist yet You know folks up, but how do you package stuff that people are paying for it? How do you crew right? How do people pay for curation? That is all sort of future stuff That is really really powerful and I think in fact these added values can possibly make more money than the content itself in other ways Say meta content makes more money than content Not to say the content isn't important because that it is but the new generatives are basically the sort of cracking point A couple of things that we're seeing in general and then I'll pass over to ross into our questions Maybe we can take a couple of questions in between A going direct is becoming totally real. You can go direct on Kickstarter on google singles on kindle kindle singles On youtube and you know, I mean there's lots of examples on this page It's still very early and obviously we can't all be funded by Kickstarter Because you know that'd be a bit too many people pitching for money But going direct is becoming very real the next slide kind of shows how louis ck is doing this Really great comedian. He's selling his tickets directly on the web now and he's selling his downloads to his videos And he's extremely successful this and of course if that becomes a model You know not everybody is as good as louis ck, of course But you know this becomes a bit of a digital Darwinism here but uh, basically as a middleman some of your publishers are saw on the list or A middleman, you know, you have to add a lot of value Or you actually become irrelevant because your position is melting Um Next slide basically shows how I look at it. I think in the media business you have to disrupt What isn't really working or you're going to be disrupted Uh, and if you look at disruptive stuff like naps originally did but now simphiles, Spotify, rdo Xbox life, you know that disrupting how it works And content will go over the top Next slide is about uh, how kindle has solved this issue of being a disrupting You know, they have essentially made a market if you're looking at those two curves, right The kindle books that were sold are now Actually more than the than the regular books and so market making is really what we're looking for and you know That's sort of the direction that I would point to towards creating new revenue streams And lastly, I think most importantly is that we're now at entering an age of hyper collaboration I call this the trend from ego to eco Eco in the sense of connected not in a sense of green only Example being spotify and tele if you have a tele which is a mobile provider in Sweden If you have a tele subscription that spotifies free So rather than competing, you know, I think it's all about hyper collaboration now And that goes especially for the content industry and the telcos And so I think this whole discussion about you know culprits and people who are To blame for what happened including the constant conversation about google and youtube and so on We need to look for collaborative models not for competitive models So far so good. Let me go back to this here. Okay All right, so let me see. Do we have any urgent questions ross any comments on what we have so far I think there's a few themes be good to come back to When perhaps we'll have to have gone through some of my things I think curation and some of the models for curation and the roles of curation. I think are particularly interesting and I suppose coming back to you know, obviously what was one of the Themes of the title of the the session today, which you've talked about a lot, which is the The payments and get the mechanisms I suppose the different situations where you can build and getting some people to pay so Some things seems that next to come back to Yeah, there's a question actually here that relates to this, you know a question about apple, you know There's a question here from ronda lorry. Hello, ronda um Talking asking a question about why apple is creating a fake fake empire And I don't know if you agree with this ross But basically my my view is that apple has created an empire of unit sales, you know You buy one song at a time you buy one Movie at a time which works great if you're okay with these big terms like, you know Watching it for 24 hours or so and it works for people who don't really care about the terms or the money But it only covers a very small fraction of the of the world that is interested in content It's very much like, you know, if you buy a kind of a book for the same price in the print You kind of feel cheated, you know, so those are not really solutions They work to some degree and they have made money, but they are not a final solution Now they are essentially creating a reason to buy apples hardware And if you're looking at apples revenue streams, you know, apple only makes four percent of the entire revenues with content Right, the rest is selling stuff So my view is that uh telcos would be a much better place To leverage the power of content than apple would be because apple will always look To make the hardware more valuable by basically bundling content in a way that makes the hardware interesting Ross, what's your view on that? That's really interesting perspective. Uh, the Uh, the I mean the the reason why I mean if you look back on the history of it It was because they saw lots of iPods that they were then able to set up iTunes Which means in terms they're able to Have a home where They can, uh, you know, again, as you say link the hardware link the devices to the machine So I change, you know, you essentially need your Apples devices to access that they try to try to tie them in very closely so the It wouldn't quite call it a fake empire, but it is predicated on the desirability of the The the hardware of the devices. So at the moment that's looking very very solid Uh, if you start to look, you know, sometime into the future that that could be more questionable But yes, it is interesting that it is I suppose, you know, to varying degrees a gated Uh community in terms of having to opt in into other other forms, including the devices If you want to access the content through iTunes Um, but because they do currently have that extraordinary play particularly in uh, phones particularly in tablets or in more so tablets That does mean again that the content holders do have to significantly go through them. They do have pricing power Um, the issue of exclusivity and the degree in which they're able to get exclusive content is still not quite there Um, so I think that they they're in a very solid position, but it does mean that they do have to maintain their The desirability of the market reach of their Devices which you know pretty safe for the next few years beyond that. It's more of an open question Yeah, I mean don't get me wrong on apple on this everyone. Uh, I love apple. I'm an apple cultist obviously Uh, but you know having said that apple is a beautiful world garden And and in my view the beautiful world garden will not scale beyond what we have now So it's not going to be a solution to buy one song at a time on apple And even if apple was offering a subscription for you know 10 or 15 or 20 dollars a month, you know, that that would have to be bundled so it can be subsidized and apple Doesn't bundle apple doesn't collaborate, right? So Um, let's go to the other question here from steven room. He's talking about asking the question Aren't the japanese players like ntt dokomo in soft bank already content players and and the answer is clearly yes Uh, and in japan that is of course the culture, you know, most of music is bought on the mobile phone in japan Uh, and and clearly, you know, we're seeing this in all kind of countries that are non traditional You know europe it's very hard because they're making so much money with calls and sim cards, you know that that they're Looking at staying clear of the discussion about content Not all of them, but to a large degree um Okay, uh, there is another question here, uh Again from ronda about the first generation of hyper collaboration Um saying that the early 2000 models with content providers were there, but the model didn't hold What's different now? Good question ronda. Um Ross do you want to you have an answer for that or? No, so it's It's very good I can't read the question Well, the question was about you know, the hyper collaboration model was already there in the first phase of the internet, right? How to create mutually good business models for content and it didn't work So the question is what is different now? Why would it work now? It's it's a I think it is interesting question the I mean, I think generally that It's a lot of the models of today or what we're seeing today were perfectly possible You know quite some years ago five or even 10 years ago and part of what changes obviously degree of connectivity You know bandwidth, uh, but it is to a certain extent attitudes of how people use the web and how Businesses are collaborating. I think it's interesting. We look back just for example apis As a foundation for the net of today It was you know, it was a very significant because google started to introduce a bunch of apis around Some of their services that started at the time to set a trend as it were for a lot of other companies were starting to Release apis and now it's de facto, you know, it's it's standard You know, it was very hard to create new service unless you were using apis or opening up apis So what that that was almost an accident of how the Systems have developed. So now we start we do have a very richly interconnected lattice of services and Companies and how things are created and this is Part of the attitudes which have somehow been shaped. I mean they It's it's interesting. We can preach openness and transparency and honesty and these things And I think that a lot of these things have been rewarded and have been Brought to reality in various ways by a lot of these moves and uh open flows of information Yeah, yeah, I think there's substantial difference now is that you just have a lot more people connected at much higher speech Uh, and and we're finally actually collaborating online all the models we talked about in the 90s weren't wrong they were just way too early because people couldn't connect it was too expensive And when you see this in the curve in five years from now when you have very cheap mobile high speed devices for 10 dollars for 20 dollars in developing countries and bundled internet access Everybody can chime in and collaborating create movies and do all these things and it'll be quite chaotic in many ways But you know, this is really a difference as to what it was You know in 10 years ago when only the privilege to online Um, let's switch over to ross. Okay. I'm going to see if the Presentation changer here works. Okay. I'm going to switch over to ross dawson as presenter. Okay Okay, ross. Are you there? Okay, hello Ross are you still there? Okay, hold on here Okay, ross are you still there? Okay, I don't hear anything Maybe ross are you there? Yeah, okay. Is here is here slide up Because you're the presenter now great okay, so for um the Those have followed my work for a long time. We'll remember this framework from many years ago I created and I suppose the reason I was putting this up is that If we look at the future of media and changing media landscape that you know A lot of the foundations and the platforms are the same as they have been its content format revenue distribution And you know increasingly this whole interplay between, you know, what we can Characterize as mainstream media and social media which are feeding off each other So these are the what we're seeing today has been We've been able to anticipate and see coming and now it's just different configurations that we're able to To see in terms of how these Different elements come together. That's what we're still playing with same elements somewhat involved over time So this is my what you know one of the frameworks I'm best known for is the newspaper extinction timeline, which is um Let's see it's around well more than 18 months ago now that I put this out and since then particularly over in fact the last few months I am I mean, I suppose one of the concepts I should always make about this framework is that I don't really believe in if you In making forecasts I think that what any forecast you make is going to be wrong and I think these are Forecasts can be wrong. They're my best estimates The best estimates at the time that I put these out and the reason is to try to provoke some more Structured thinking so for example, if people disagree with me that hopefully they will think through why they disagree with me and but anyway the for in fact over the last years I have started to think that These are going to shift earlier in many cases so I One of the things I was in Moscow recently and was able to experience a little bit The landscape there and I suppose as suggested by my frameworks There's quite a big difference between metro Russia, which is mainly mainly Moscow degrees St. Petersburg as well as rural Russia but What one of the key variables in the second page of the framework should I draw out is people's variation between countries around how much people are willing to pay for different things including news. I think that Russia's perhaps not the only country where people are generally don't like to pay for much of the thing news I think that they're seeing the challenges there and the pace of change and the pace of behavioral change Suggest that we could see Certainly metropolitan Russia and you know Moscow and so on be somewhat earlier in terms of the existential death of news on paper I live in sydney and a few weeks ago. We had some pretty interesting news from both fairfax and news limited major well predominant and very heavily dominant news organizations here basically Announcing very significant layoffs major cost cutting shifts to digital first by fairfax Which has been very much a newspaper. I think a pretty safe forecast is that the sydney and melvin major newspapers city morning held on the age will shift to Weekend only In the not too distant future. Basically the weekend editions do extremely well, you know, they're still quite fat They still got lots of advertising. They're still very well read The it is very difficult to make money on the weekday ones. We've always seen obviously the New Orleans ties pick a you and do a similar move to publishing three days a week So we're starting to see some quite different dynamics around I think acceleration of some of the timelines I'm seeing and I think 2022 which was the forecast for Australia is looking pretty optimistic right now if you're on the newspaper front so Part of the thing is that this is that newspapers become You know irrelevant or you know insignificant and the news on paper will exist in a few forms I think it's interesting to get more shapes around that I think two of the areas we look to Aware news on paper will remain which is a tiny fraction of what they are today. One is in highly community based so sometimes some of them sometimes local areas where you know, it's not necessarily published every day There's a lot of local Advertises the local community. So you're intrinsically targeted Advertising and there is You know the dynamics stack up far better. We're likely to see them Last better than in In general metropolitan areas. There are obviously a few landmark papers such as New York Times arguably some other major Metro papers that will last and the other part is the very interesting one is free newspapers. It's interesting so the last dozen years The newspaper industry is sort of leapt on board free papers as the savior and and some cases gone a little too far and Had them closed down So there is a role for free papers though. I believe that the value of advertising with free newspapers is Uh lower than the cost of the advertising in many cases. I think it is going to be a lot harder I think we will still see free papers. There is still a role for them, but I think that that will significantly shrink in coming years Can I chime in for a second Ross? Yes, a short comment on this, you know, there's a lot of really interesting technology Recently including a thing called lair, which is creating augmented reality Applications that go on top of newspapers So we're now seeing this combination of print and digital coming for example with this With this app is called lair with it with an a you can actually just scan Any icon or so on on a regular newspaper without any electronic stuff in it? And you can you can find augmented reality content like videos and links and tweets and whatever With your mobile phone while you're reading Uh, and this will really be a saving grace for print, you know Because now I can read the new york times and if it was lair enabled, which doesn't take much You know, I can find extra content by connecting directly from the newspaper page to my to my mobile I think that's that's useful though to a point Which is starting to move into the technology Access in a way the paper is starting to becoming redundant in any case So it's it's it's an interesting move and I think that's you know There are a few technologies that enable that sort of technology layer or additional content layer on print What one of the other I think very interesting technologies which we researched on in the uk university which I blogged about recently which Essentially gives a technology digitally enables paper So I've I've long said that it is digital paper and you know, which will you know, truly replace it But we start to have all of the positive characteristics of paper, you know, you can fold it and roll it and passive light and all of these wonderful things As well as all the qualities of digital, but there if we can actually take paper as we know it and be able to find various ways to be able to digitally enable it touch enable it and to You know bring up Data and so on that that affects we also provide so that that's basically takes into a digital product I mean, it's no longer that the new result paper that we have to think of it as today There's a question here by the way, ross you're going to publish the link to your slideshow later That will be a good thing because it seems like people want that later. So yeah, go ahead so Crowdsourcing is one of my big themes of my most recent book getting results from crowds was on You know on this theme, I think which is critically important. So if you look at the intersection of crowdsourcing So so a lot of uh, I think people misunderstand What how this will play out and people as most journalists the vast majority of journalists sort of poo poo the idea of crowdsourcing the idea of crowds or the Uneducated In the ways of journalists being able to replace them I think in almost every case that it is The pro-am the professional amateur the collaboration of the professional the amateur And so this is where one of the things which addresses this point of the quality of journalism So the reality is newsrooms around the world have smaller and smaller staffs. That is a fact and The way in which to be able to shift this so this does not Have a negative impact on the quality of journalism I believe that we have the potential to move to higher quality of journalism is using crowds effectively Which means that the professionals who understand the processes and can engage and do that so also The point of this slide is that There's journalism has many elements and parts of the more can be done by crowds So reporting must obviously by things like, you know, twitter or CNN our report or many other things where people who are on the ground or where things are happening to report information That's clearly value There is researching and so, you know, for example You know the guardians empty expenses most most obviously where more and more you say Let's do some research. Let's uncover some information where people individuals are tasked by journalist or editors Filtering that's more one more more done by social news services like get prismatic and post post and You know zyte and many other ones validation I think it's an interesting one because that valid because twitter is unvalidated When usually if it appears on cnn or new york times, it has been validated and that still is largely a You know editorial or journalistic task. So I think there's elements of that that can go out to the crowd Analysis again, there's lots of things you can slice up and to ask people to do for you in the crowd to contribute Copy editing. There's lots of mechanisms to be able to throw that Metadata is interesting BBC just has an initiative out to be able to help the crowds to generate metadata to make their Information more findable searchable and so on But reputation is critical and I think that I'm very interested in reputation of journalists reputation of news sources And now again, we can start to look for reputation of citizen journalists And this reputation is intrinsically crowdsourced as many people are Contributing to be able to generate that and that's what enables to filter Many contributions to make sense of that to be able to create what's valuable and clearly we are getting crowd funding where you know, for example matt are the New technology magazine is being funded by the crowd so crowds are really relevant together with the professional That's where they create value Yeah, it's interesting, you know, I think this is a very powerful list, you know the the main issue here is going to be about Finding a way to deal with the noise issue, you know, because obviously the crowd the crowds are more noisy Uh, and this is uh, you know, if you look at the last three weeks They have been at least a dozen features around the web including the new york times about how we're getting distracted by all the noise, right So this to me is like if there is a tool that cuts down the noise and increases the value And gets our brain to be lined up, you know with the mission, which is to learn something To understand something, you know, that's worth real money Uh, and this I think your next slide here the revenue model obviously speaks to that Yeah, there's a question. I don't know if you want to answer that now later, but jonathan marx is asking What do you think will happen to radio as part of the question? What happens to to media and journalism? Do you want to go on that later? um, you know, don't just announce a radio is In fact, one of the channels which I think is going to last the longest and close to its current form and one of the reasons is simply that We have the broadcast stations in place the shift to ip distribution to moving vehicles is, uh Harder, you know is harder than to fix points or even to people who are, you know sitting sitting in a room somewhere But what we will start to do is slice the what is currently done over radio into more and more segments So one of the really important things on radio, which is mainly local is Traffic another is weather Uh, another is local news And then you start to get more city or regional based commentary and a lot of the I suppose breakfast shows and so on are largely around engaging with we are what our communities And music can be global so we can start to then move to radio being sliced into just a single channel to people who are Very often in cars sometimes at home has been able to slice up and create their own show Where you get a global component, which may be their favorite music It dispersed with some of their commentary from a person in their city Uh dispersed with if they're in a car They would choose to get some of the traffic news Or more generally they could get choose to get with the weather news So we start to get this slicing down of different Pick components of radio, which still can To you know, and if you're in you know at a home or in a car Or moving around you can actually find some ways to intersperse IP streams of digital content through to traditional broadcast of some of the You know more more traditional radio content. So I think that's an interesting Uh direction I mean I have a slightly more pessimistic view on on radio because with the way I look at it and the way I see it You know pretty much anywhere I go as soon as you can connect another device to your car radio Which is now becoming a standard usb in bluetooth and and just plug in your device and you know kids don't listen to radio anymore Uh, and that becomes a real problem I think you know if you're looking at apps like dar.fm by michael robinson where you can actually record that stuff You know all that stuff should be done by the by the radio stations themselves I mean they My view is that if they don't push the envelope and get more licenses and make it available in a in a way They'll they'll be insignificant very very quickly apart from weather and sports and talk You know, but music radio or you know that sort of thing. I think basically That is going to be a challenge but uh talk about the media revenue models. I think this is an important slide. So Yeah, we don't don't have too much time. So um Just talking a big brush. I mean part of the point of this Framework is to show that there there are many revenue models classically You know content and advertising of the other models, which the vast majority are You know me you're a tap into yet. There are many other new forms And so the part of it is being able to not just look at them individually But also look at how these all combine together Um as part of a whole set of revenue models some of which can provide reasonable revenue in the short term some of us which will build over time become You know part of a broader media franchise and looking at the how value is created Make sure the value is added which relates to another framework on the new scheme So I just just want to say a couple of words on community because I think that almost every Media channel what it's really significant Business model set of business models in the future are based around community and Almost every media Organization will say, you know, we we are we are a community organization. We are uh, You know that that's the heart of our business That's talk more than reality in almost all cases because it is still a hub and spoke model It is all about broadcasting. Yes to a lot a lot of people that are a community But they are not enabling the community. They are not they are not the community They are simply broadcasting to that community. So community business models I think in a great example of the next example that is desert news in uh, solid city which Is Has done a lot of things in enabling its community and it's it has a very cohesive community around it Which obviously helps but it's you know And one of the key elements of that is in terms of the contributions of its of its Its readership and its audience to the content and so on But another one which they are looking for which is around the monetization Is it essentially around offering? I don't want to correlate too closely to the group buying syndrome But that's a lot of what it is. Essentially a community part of what a real community Uh platform can do is to enable more revenue to go to local suppliers Be they restaurants or be they hardware stores or be whatever they may be And at the same time be giving value to their community and providing better value So great advantage of this this truly is a community style Value and there is monetization in it those ways of making money So ways where you're not getting a large corporation being able to skim off some of these Values, but you are helping money to stay within the community and taking some of that money for yourself So I think this this idea of building community business models Which create value for the community and where there is value, which the media organization can take out Are really important so We do only have a little time left to sort of you know speak on Either the themes which I've raised or good has or others So are there any other questions now or anything good? Do you want to sort of bring up out of what I've run through? Yeah, there's a couple of questions here First I want to see if scott evans is still on the line because scott has a question Let me see if I can actually get scott on the microphone here scott Are you still there? I'm going to put you on the microphone here a sec so you can ask your question. Okay And scott are you there? Yeah, can you hear me? Yeah, you're there. Okay. Let's let's put this is scott evans from from the uk here. He works for social vibe He has a question. So can you just Bring forth your question and we can discuss it Yeah, hi guys. Yeah, it's just a quick one really obviously much like you guys I've been in this arena for many many years and from I guess from a media perspective a content driven perspective I think the way the market's maturity I mean maturity is is such that I just wondered what your perspective was in terms of Given that consumers are becoming more media aware on a daily basis In terms of a future. Is there a sort of What is your kind of approach in terms of do you think that it's about time that brands Realize this and chose rather than bullying consumers for their attention by Using traditional disruptive means of display advertising such as digital display If they should start to look towards models whereby with ward gardens and payment walls as you talked about earlier They they help consumers in terms of maybe Offering them something in exchange for their attention in terms of giving them I don't know access to article bundles music content And that kind of thing and have I guess an open contact Contract with people who are aware that their attention is valuable and give them something in exchange for that Yeah, I respond to this quickly. I mean the and then we could put over to ross but you know, you can already see that branded content and and Brands and advertisers sponsoring content is a major trend, you know in the us pendora.com Which has 75 million users interactive radio is mainly sponsored by Bex beer And Bex says this is the best thing they've ever done in terms of reaching people and and they're not intrusive So this whole idea of being not intrusive of adding value of facilitating commerce That's a huge thing for brands and that will be in my view be a very large Piece of online advertising will be presented in this way The second thing is that however, I think that many Consumers will also opt not to see any ads or be left alone with advertising and just pay the money instead You know, this is a trend that we're seeing people getting tired of being pitched stuff, right? So we're going to see both. I'm sure I don't know ross, you know, what are your thoughts on this? Yeah, and it's I mean it's an important question and I absolutely Concare, I mean firstly that's brands will increasingly pay to create content rather than pay for advertising and it's obviously all sorts of issues around the credibility or Of the content and how well they can do that. But I mean, this is a very obvious trend which not out will go further The other thing is you know, when I when I look at paywalls I I call it the grand experiment as in the Anybody that is trying to put up a wall around things that have previously been free or largely free will You've got to try different things. You've got to keep on trying. Well, you know, is it the bundles? Is it the? You know time of day thing is it the way and is it the quality of the stream or whatever it is? And I think that those who are trying to put up ways of pricing content that are more flexible Which enables them to do lots of experiments and see how people respond to them. The ones are more likely to get to a point that is Where they're they're able to sustain and to get paid content and this Point those that are trying to just sort of say this is the way it should be and Pretty trying to charge that basis More likely to fail We're going to have to continue experiment people's attitudes will continue to evolve and so that's As we continue to refine them and find out one of those many many possibilities of Creating more value for the consumer works in getting them paid and we we will get to some Some value All right. Thanks for the question scott. I had to unmute you because there's too much background stuff going on See who else wants to ask a question is is jonathan mark still there? He has a few questions If you want to ask the live question, just give give me a quick chat up here There is another good question here from Simon add Simon anderson Simon says that in his view the content driven mobile experience will redefine how we interact with information and marketing Can you speak to the impact of the recent introduction of the mobile 3.0 capabilities? Oh in qualcom, you know, I don't really have any news on qualcom, but Simon in my view and this is as far as the 3.0 is concerned This goes back to what I said earlier about the solo mo social local mobile We're essentially now in a whole different reiteration of of What's happening with mobile devices because finally they're useful. They're connected at very high speed They're not long longer going to be very costly They have social and location built into the whole thing So my view is that only in the last 12 months we have really had this possibility of connecting social with content And with and now with advertising And this is why we have all the major issues about privacy, right? Because it's really becoming possible now so I don't know if I would call it mobile 3.0, but In many ways one could argue that the web really has only become useful in the last year or so Given all the possibilities Ross you want to comment on this and then we have a question from Jonathan here on the microphone the It's it's the The mobile has come a long way and it's coming a lot further. It's it's I think it's extraordinary It's I you know, I still sort of you know, you sort of look at the how much in developed countries anyway tablets And the smartphones have come and how much they have become where we access things I still think that things like video glasses or other other rich forms of being able to access You know to interact with these devices and we're around about will continue to help that But also voice as a as a controller so we can really make the most of mobile platforms, but it's We've come a long way with mobile as a dominant becoming a Significant almost dominant platform. It's going to go further. It's this is the the big shift, which we're in the middle of now Great, so we have Jonathan Marx who wants to ask a live question So I'm going to turn over the microphone if I can hear the Jonathan Marx Jonathan. Are you there? Hello, is it working? Yeah, it's working. This is Jonathan Marx. He is an expert on radio and the future of radio on media Good friend of mine a colleague from the Netherlands. So welcome Jonathan. What's the question? Actually the question is about Whether you know any good examples of crowdfunding in Asia I've been looking at How people have been trying to write books and make both radio and tv productions In western europe and north america and I see some people are actually being quite successful in terms of raising Let's say 10 to 50,000 pounds to Make a production, but I'm just curious about whether anything like that is happening in Asia I mean, I see a lot of people making videos I see a lot of people making entertainment But is anybody making factual content? Yeah, very good question. I haven't really seen much of that. I think part of the You know the willingness to try these models is a sort of you know, of course americans jump on on new stuff very quickly And and this is why we're seeing that first with Kickstarter in the u.s. And now in the uk, right? and Singapore is one of the sites places where these have taken off the most. There's a number of crowdfunding sites in out of Singapore eight squirrels Together asia firecracker. So we are um So these these have you know taken a similar form to what we've seen in some of the us and so on for crowdfunding the There is a crowdsourcing week happening in April next year in Singapore and then that's with a large liaison focus I suppose that there is Number of sites in the markets So I think it is still a bit patchy, but Singapore is one of the hubs where we've seen more There's a lot of interest in japan that i'm aware of Hey ross, can you can you mention again? What what is the title of the book and where where can people get it? Uh getting results from crowds Is my recent book on crowdsourcing. Okay, great. I I muted you again jonathan There's a question. Thanks for the question jonathan There's uh, do you want to say do you want to say something else? I'll turn you off too early Let me put you back here. Do you want to say something else jonathan? No, no, but okay Okay, sorry All right, vincen lugger nearer has a question for at about a half an hour ago saying how do you see the business of kickstarter in 10 years and You know, I'd be interested to see what do you view on this as ross because my personal view is yeah I love kickstarter and what they're doing and indiegogo and all the other places You know, I think that the issue is of course that If this becomes a default then I'll I'll be asked from all of my friends every single day to chime in somewhere Um, I'm not entirely sure that it could scale and that sort of fashion. What what's your view? It's I think it's interesting. I know that the explosion of kickstarter this year is staggering the first million dollar Kickstarter project was on the 12th of february, I remember rightly and Already we've obviously had a 10 million dollar project and I think there's another five million dollar project this week and So so it's it's just You know taken off to an extraordinary degree. So these are largely pre-sales the large Kickstarter project are pre-sales. So this is you know, people are buying things You know, they are not sort of funding out of the goodness of their heart They're saying I'm going to commit some money because I know that I'm going to get something on the outside Where I have confidence that they're going to create something which will Um, you know build something good. So there will be some hiccups along the way. I think but it is I think we should think of the crowdfunding of the kickstarter model as Very significantly a pre pre-sales model and that's the the bulk of the money which has been funded that way What is going to be really interesting is the rise of equity crowdfunding in the wake of the uh, of others jobs act on signing to effect on the uh, april the fifth but that is There's still some way until it actually becomes reality And interesting kickstarter said we are not going to do equity crowdfunding for the foreseeable future They're happy with their model and they're going to let others do the equity crowdfunding Which I think is hot quite a different space And I think that it will have a lot of impact will take quite a while to be significant in this crowdfunding as very significantly pre-sales Um, yeah, and obviously just you know to a significant as well some good will is You know proven to be a solid model and I think we're going to see a lot more Yeah, what I like about kickstarter and excited as well is the fact that we don't just donate money Like to greenpeace or something. You know, we we actually get something back like a custom made book or Dinner concert or whatever. I mean and this is actually for the creators Is a good thing is because they have to create some sort of product Oriented choices, you know, I'm doing a kickstarter thing Or probably an indiegogo thing myself from a new book very soon in the summer my new book will be called from eco to eco So there you're you're welcome to then book a dinner with me if you if you feel like it Okay, we have a few more questions. Here was a question about telcos from paul bruny. I don't know if Paul is still on but he's he's asking if telcos have such a big potential in content Then why are they struggling so much to move beyond the dump smart the dump pipe smart pipe debate? Uh, and I think it's a great question because in my view again because of telemedia You know, we're heading into a future to where that's becoming inevitable because the only way to make it work In my view with content the future is a combination of the shipping and the pipeline And the content value creation because everything else is sort of fighting one against the other Ross, do you have a comment on that or? um, yeah as as many large organizations It's uh, the telcos have You know proven that it's difficult for them to change their sets and mentalities And the other is that it is very difficult to build a content business that Rivals the scale of their, you know existing pipe Uh revenues, so it's hard for them to pay attention for what yes Maybe the core part of their their model and their revenues down the track But it's you know, just classic any large organization You know, it's it doesn't hit the uh next quarter or next few quarters You know revenue or profitability in fact it costs money Well, yeah, of course to be able to build it. It's it's a it's a takes uh vision and it takes uh courage and it takes, you know Yeah You know big picture thinking which is not always the case Well, this is one of the big challenges, of course in the entire Content and media and telco businesses that we're all thinking on quarterly instances, you know, and this I mean, this is a real issue I mean with telcos because they have huge potential But they're always calculating return on investment with a bunch of spreadsheets that are based on You know, uh, whatever data they have but you know, the more sort of Visionary views that that people have like Jeff Bezos have done with amazon And taking a leap into a new business. It's extremely difficult for them But in my view is totally inevitable and and you'll you'll see this in asia First I think by the likes of talcum Indonesia and singtel and and others Paul bernie is still there. So i'm going to see if I can I get paul to actually say something in person paul are you there? Okay, do you want to do you want to chime in on this question that you just asked about the telcos you have Yeah, well, I mean I As you probably remember good. I work for the MMA. So I spend a lot of my time with with with telcos Um, and I'd agree with the comments you've made about the the difficulty of breaking them out of the the short-term thinking That that they have um And you know, I I'm I'm watching The the struggles that many of them are having to to break into Mobile marketing mobile advertising as as being as being a you know a business line That generates significant enough revenue for them to Continue to to work in it. I can't say that I've seen any that I can think of at the moment who are Making a success of of either content creation or content distribution Yeah, it's funny. You know in a way it's if you think if you think there are examples of people who are at least at least making a Start in that space. I'd be interested to hear who you think I think orange and front telecom has done some really interesting stuff There even though they can't be considered to be fast in that sense But at least I have a choir deezer and make it work And telephonica is looking at this now with telephonica digital, right? So so there's a bunch of things happening. I think in general the You know the the telcos are a little bit like the oil companies in which that they've made so much money with their existing infrastructure And because they were largely monopolies for a long time Is now that they can't perceive of the next business, you know, clearly for the oil companies The next business is wind, water, solar and other things But this is completely in a different side of the planet for them, right? And can they make that believe They're almost the classic case of of marketing may appear on there. They can't They can't see the the the businesses of the future because they're stuck in the One vision of the of the current business. This is why you may you know, it's still immensely profitable for them as well Yeah, we may see companies like google and stuff to take to take over that That empty void, you know ross. Do you have any comment on that or? Yeah, it's it's it's going to be a real challenge Yeah, I mean is it's I mean, we're of course, we're facing this every day We have to head towards the end here. There's one more question from andre andre pre-surn How's the telcos interest in content different to that of a hardware company like apple? I think this is a good final question Ross, do you want to go on that first? Sorry about it again How is how the telcos interest in content different than that of a hardware company like apple? Well, that's I think it's a great question. I have a user often use the flow economy framework, which First described in my book living networks. So the six major elements to this the flow economy. So most importantly Standards relationships content services connectivity and interfaces So everyone's trying to reposition across that landscape from whatever their starting point is So if you're in the connectivity business, which the telcos have been that clearly is becoming commoditized in various ways you're trying to shift to those other other parts of the Ecosystem including content including services including Relationships that you can then span into other domains. For example financial services at most prominently If you're in hardware business, then if you've done that, well, that's an interface Part and from there again, you're trying to shift over to any other parts of the business Apple is almost is distinct in the hardware business and that it still has very strong margins there. So I think the more most recent data I've seen as the camera of the actual numbers but Apple has close to 90 percent of the total profitability in the smartphone handset market And the this is So it's not just a hardware manufacturer It is a very distinct one one which has able to make very strong margin and is escape commoditization but telcos Have so Apple is moving from a very strong profitable position where it is using as we discussed before It's other the content and the services and the relationships itunes basically relationships play to be able to get more margin on particularly the hardware which is the interface's piece Whereas the the telcos are moving from position of weakness as it were they do have the pipes But that doesn't give them The margins and it doesn't give them a place to be able to easily shift into those other positions So that's the challenge that they face Yeah, you know my my short answer on this is why are they different is basically to me the content is in the cloud It's not in the device and nokia tried this with ov and comes with music and failed miserably because the content is in the cloud And who runs the cloud, you know, it's not the hardware guys who run the cloud At least for now that they run part of the system, but they don't run the network So it's the network guys who run the cloud and therefore the logic of building the content business Which is moving into the cloud Into mobile devices and so on is really a logic that that goes with the network providers and the enablers And the people who run the connectivity between the cloud and the crowd That's why I think there's a substantial uptake there because there's a reason why you would use T-Mobile or or o2 in germany or so if there was a flat rate for books and music There's a reason that this would all come together because the numbers are very large You know the numbers of users and so on and there's a question here That's rated from luke magnuson He said could you elaborate on why you think it's inevitable that telcos are made for media and more importantly? How do you think this will materialize customer proposition wise? Short answer on that and then we really have to wrap up You know from my point of view is that it's inevitable that telcos add value Because just having a good data plan and a smart device isn't going to be enough for us very soon It already really isn't We want stuff included and we want convenience and we want sense making and curation Because we want value for our time and money So they they're going to have to add add extra values and the likes of the over the top players like facebook and twitter They're always adding values and really competing taken away from the attention of the telcos So that to me is forces them to go to the content guys and say come on Let's figure out a standard that we can collaborate and the same goes for the content guys who are saying You know if content moves over the top like spotifies m5 rdo and so on You know, there's no other solution than to figure out a commerce model That gets five billion people to be part of it rather than you know A couple hundred a couple ten million people buying from itians Um, so that doesn't solve the problem. It creates a basically inadvertent privacy Because you know if you live in a country where you don't have itians, what are you going to do? You know go to youtube, I guess So I think it forces the telcos to realize that without that they're going to be marginalized is my view In a very short time depending on what country you live in It may be quicker than others. So ross. Do you have a final word on that? No, let's let's probably turn a wrap up. Yeah So we're going to publish this webinar in the in the audio version on gert and ross.com gerd and ross.com And also we're going to publish the slides including ross's slide on the on the website. It's a tumblr blog Thanks very much for joining us if if you enjoyed this, please do retweet The tumblr post which is going to go online in about an hour And send it around to people We're going to have a bunch of different shows on this and and again Ross and me are hitting the road sometime later this year For seminars that we're doing for some of our larger clients To help build the future of of content around this rather Thorny and sometimes convoluted issues Ross is ross darsen.com and what's your youtube channel also ross darsen, right? uh Thank you It's actually a haro ssd a hd heat too Okay, maybe just google ross darsen And i'm very easy to find i'm i'm if you just put in to google or yahu for that matter Put in a gert futurist You'll find all my stuff more than you probably read in the next five years. All right. Thanks very much for joining us. It's been a real pleasure And ross, thanks to you again as well. It's great to do with you good and fantastic Thanks for everyone for attending and all your great questions of conversation Oh, by the way before i forget it for all the intent is you know, we do have A bunch of youtube videos that you can see if you just put in good and ross into youtube You can find like i think we made about seven or eight right on various topics last year in beautiful, sydney So you can see what we actually look like and You know not that it's going to be a pleasure, but anyway, thanks very much for tuning in. We'll see you down the road Bye