 Good morning and welcome to the Monday market update with me, David Madden. Today's date is Monday, the 9th of December 2019 and the time it's just gone 10 and 25 GMT And it's been a fairly subdued start to the European trading sessions today European equity markets are a little lower, nothing massive just showing modest losses You know looking at the last few days trading we had a We had a fairly positive, you know, if you're very impressive non-farm payrolls update On on Friday just gone the headline figure was well above expectations There was a positive revision to the premiums most number unemployment drop dropped back to a joint 50 or low Earnings ticked up earnings are pumped to be above inflation rates So in America workers in America are in jobs and they're getting a real increase in wages So we have seen a bit of those gains cool that look obviously the US China China trade Situation is still very much in focus As things stand the United States is still due to increase to slap tariffs on Chinese goods on December 15 Goods that you know worth in excess of 150 billion dollars unless things change between now then of course So that's kind of lingering over the markets over the weekend. We had a few economic reports We had these trade figures out of China and they came in Not as economists were predicting on the imports front Imports increased fractionally by 0.3 percent which is much better than expected because economists were expecting a decline of 1.8 percent and keep my the previous months in imports reading was a decline of an excess of 6 percent on the exports front The decline by 1.1 percent, which was a big miss considering that columns were predicting an increase 1% So the increase in x imports tells us that internal internally domestic demand to China is strong Results are good for the Chinese economy, but on the flip side exports is weak X-mas artwork rather and with that it's a sign that maybe the US China trade war and the tariffs are impacting Chinese economy But then again China really can play the long game In relation to trade with the US overnight we heard from Yet some growth figures out of Japan the third quarter revised GDP show growth Of 1.8 percent on the third quarter on an annualized basis much better than expected that helped list, you know Broadly lift stocks in Asia overnight but nothing massive And here in Europe it's been a fairly quiet morning in terms of news on the economic data front We had trade figures out of Germany Imports were flash, you know 0.0 percent growth. So basically, you know, it's very clear that demand in Germany is flatlining It's not growing. Um, it ties in with the fact that you know manufacturing and industrial orders and what what have you are all in a fairly weak position Whereas German exports increased by 1.2 percent. So obviously Germany exports a lot to the rest of Europe North America and Asia. So obviously the demand externally is very positive I take a quick look now at the week ahead and then I look to cover some charts And the weekend article can be found on our website if you go to cmcmarkets.com Under insights under news analysis, you'll find the bulk of the articles that we write posted to there Um, so I always cover the Chinese trade figures On wednesday is the federal reserve Industry decision, which it's highly likely the federal reserve will keep mounting policy unchanged You know, there are three interest rate costs between June between June and October And at the last meeting the Fed made it pretty clear I dropped the big hint that there won't be Moving rates at four or four for some time and especially in light of the fact We had a great job the number jobs reports just gone Also wednesday, we have ted baker Third quarter figures that's going to be in focus given that the recent weakness in the share price In terms of the the sell-off we saw last week A big day for the uk on thursday the general election the most, you know The opinion polls that I've seen have all been important to a conservative win And some of some of the important to be conservative majority as well. So hence why we've seen Uh, a pretty elevated elevated british pound in the last week or two On thursday, we have uh, the european central bank Interest rate decision, you know, once again respecting no change to policy, you know We're in renown december it was last month november when the ecp restarted their government bond purchasing scheme We might hear Some some calls for fisco stimulus from the From the governments of various europeans eurozone economies and we've heard that from the outgoing The well the old Previous, uh, ecp head mario draki and other christina guard has taken over this is going to be interesting to uh to find out What the new set with a new chief has to say On thursday, we have first half figures from private bricks here in the uk and we've q4 results from mcado And on thursday, we have our first half figures from super dry So as promised looking at some of the major markets starting off with the foxy 100 Broly speaking Between october and into late early october to date november as brody was moving higher But the latest kind of setback in terms of uh, you know trumps kind of tantrum in relation to trade Uh, you know early at the beginning of last week Really sent, uh, but knock knock the foxy 100 lower. It's back below What they will both the eternity moving average 150 moving average things are looking not so impressive for the foxy 100 But we seem to have in the near term seem to find a bit of a floor in around here of the zone At 71 32 and if you can hold above lash and we can hold and we can keep above 7200 we might look to kind of retest and back up towards this red line here the eternity moving average at 73 18 And if you go beyond that we're going to be looking at targeting this zone here of 7400 up to 7400 and 70 This sort of a zone in around here But on the flip side if you do manage to turn over on ourselves again I would take off the recent nose here. We could then be heading back down towards the psychology portant 7000 mark Taking a look at what's going on over in germany with the tax So the tax, um Pro db moving higher since mid mid august. We had a very decent rally It wasn't too long ago. Well, it was a few weeks ago now in mid november We hit levels. They're about 22 month highs. There were levels not quite two-year highs But they weren't too far away from it on the backs of things. We're looking fairly strong on the backs Granted, we didn't have a fairly sharp sell-off last tuesday when that went when now, you know, sorry last monday rather But the market has been recovering since it's recovered the bulk of those gains And you know, we see a steady Decline in now momentum second firms the upward move we're seeing in the actual market itself If you can't press on higher from here, you know, we could be looking retesting the recent highs in around 13,374 Should the market turn over on itself and we take off the recent lows here We could be looking at it back down towards this blue line here the 50 moving average in a 12,861 Or possibly down to this this for this line here is Uh, a 12,800, you know, it's it acted as both resistance and support natural go so that metric could be important in the near in the future But obviously there are no guarantees We'll take a look now on what's going on over in the over in the u.s on the On the dow Jones. So as you can see u.s markets are in much better shape. It was not long ago late november We were at record highs for the dow Jones Very sizable sell-off early last week, but we've recovered the bulk of those losses in the market You know, we could be like you're retesting the all-time highs in around 28,194 there they're about so, you know, we could be looking at retesting record highs for the dollar in the near term And of course the video print at record highs we think you're looking towards 28,200 300 400 so on and so forth Uh, if the market does manage to move lower support could be found from this this line here in around the 27,400 mark We can see that that area It's a zone on a few occasions actually that's enough about support and resistance in the past And if a metric has been like I said, it's been important in the past. It makes it more likely It'll be so in the future, but obviously nothing is a nothing is a done a done deal If a dude to drop below that, uh, we could find support for this this yellow line here One of the moving average and that comes into play You can see that I support not too long ago in in a bit late october And that metric comes into play in around 26,918 I take a look at the s&p 500 similar picture in the s&p 500 to the dow Jones whereby Late november it was it was at a all-time highs fairly size will sell off You know in the first couple of days in december, but you know a lot of ground has been recouped Uh, so we could make a retesting, you know, 3,155 there They're about kind of recent record high in its own and if you go beyond that we could be end wars 3,160 3,170 and so on Uh, if the market does manage to get a drift lower spoke We found from this area here in around 3,100 or perhaps in this this this this line here in at 3,066 notice how That metric we saw through this consolidation in that area at the beginning of november And even if we did have a very sharp sell-off every last week the market didn't actually quite get as low as if it there they're about And if you go if you happen to go below that that would you know We still the upper trend the wide rubber trend will still be very much intact So if you drop below that metric we could really get headed back down to this zone here in around 30 25 I take a look now at what's going on on the currency markets starting off with the euro versus us dollar Like I said, we have you know We're talking about euro dollar now and we have both the Fed and the ECB update this week Isis as I suspect given that The Fed and reserve made it pretty clear that that they won't be moving rates any further and given that the european central bank Uh, I just recently began Recently restarted their EC their policy their monthly their loosing policy I think we could see some potentially first and you know further kind of downside moves They do euro dollar because the wider trend very much at the downside Granted, I know we had a big bounce back in october But if you notice since then we have seen a couple of lower lows and lower highs Granted the highs of early december took off the highs of late november But we're still in the kind of wider downward trend and should we press on lower from here We could look at retesting the kind of 110 area an area that is Don't maybe just south of it. We have some pretty decent support from it So if you do a size of break below 110 you could take it back down for this zone one or nine down to one spot. Oh wait 79 If you manage to push out higher from here and look to kind of bounce back We could be we could potentially a bunch of resistance at this area here in around one spot 11 79 I think I'll be on that. We could target this zone here in at one spot 12 49 Uh, take a look at the pound versus the euro dollar So this this is potentially big week for the british pound Uh, I gave him what's going on with the general election. So after a massive sell-off between uh for for quite some time In early september the pound dropped to a 30-year low against the u.s. dollar But then since then the market managed to kind of bounce back This this this move we're seeing along here was what was the enough that we saw in You know october 10th 11th thousand when the announcement came that that the tori parity had struck a deal With the eu And then obviously the opinion polls since then have been quite strong Strongly in favor of the conservative party the pro-visit party getting getting uh willing to winning up the up and coming election And looking possibly getting a majority as well All the mp's who were contesting Uh, this this general election for the conservative party have all pledged to back Boris Johnson's deal So they're going to view with that if the tori party get a majority It's likely it's like, you know, it should look it's actually should be the case of That should be the kind of final stretch of the uk leaving the european union on that on the terms of that deal that Boris Johnson struck. So it will be in an orderly manner And that is likely to kind of add potentially push the pound even higher from here So if you press on higher from here, we could be taking out the early May highs of in at one spot 30 31 78 this zone here and if you go beyond that you can make your turn in this area here um in at one spot 33 16 if you do have any kind of um Narrowing of polls or looks like the the leader party, uh, they were not so pro-business If any kind of sign that they're creeping head in the opinion polls We could see some downward pressure on the British pound versus the US dollar So we could look head back down for this zone here in around kind of, you know, one spot 30 12 down to kind of 129 the potential area Of support should we actually push lower from here? And even if you do drop, you know Below that we could be like heading back down toward this blue line here The 50 moving average when she comes to play at one spot 2804 I take a look now what's going on on the oil market Starting up a Brent crude So broadly speaking Since earlier tour would be kind of grinding higher on the on the energy market Slowly, but surely kind of edging Eeking out higher highs and higher lows And that's only on the last Friday Could be a level last seen in late September But you know, we're the kind of incremental moods are making the upside are exactly huge But nonetheless the kind of direction of travel is to the upside So if you can press it higher from here We could be like you're targeting this area here in a 65 spot 79 And if you go beyond that we could be like you're heading towards 66 bucks per barrel on Brent crude Any move to the downside could find some support from this yellow line here The one already moving average in a 61 spot 46 And if you have a fairly size of break below that we could be head back down towards 60 bucks per barrel Take a look now what's going on WTI WTI as you can see it's a fairly similar similar looking chart for buy the market Since early october has been pushing a lot of attitude to the upside Similar scenario whereby the highest that we saw on friday with the highest levels we've seen since mid september So things are moving along to the upside and we're currently in around 58 spot 52 55 there they're about So the next big number to keep an eye on for on the WTI is 60 bucks per barrel A big psychological number and we haven't seen that level since mid september If the market does manage to drift a bit lower We might see some fresh buyers end of the fold because as you can see Buying that it has been a proper strategy in the last few weeks and months. So if you manage to drift lower Some work can be found from this red line here the 50 200 moving average which comes to play at 57 spot 51 And drop below that even could take us head back down towards this yellow line here One of the moving average which comes to play at 55 spot 86 And even if you go below that this trend line here If you draw a low a low between the lows of early october and mid october you get this trend line along here We haven't even really even really retested it since then but if you do move If you do drop drop even further down this area which comes to play there. They're about at 55 26 They're there about 55 spot 26 in that region we could find some support from the area as well Thank you all for tuning in this week and please tune next week. Thank you very much