 Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen and welcome to this Middle East Outlook session at the World Policy Conference in Abu Dhabi I'm Terry Martin. I'm a Berlin based broadcast Journalist and some of you may remember me from yesterday when I chaired the Ukraine session Today I'm jumping in for Stephen Erlinger Stephen Erlinger I understand is a regular at this conference He was originally scheduled to chair this session, but was called back to work So my apologies to any of you who were expecting to see Stephen Erlinger up here. There's no way I can fill Steve's Big shoes, but I assure you I will do my very best to make this panel worth your while I'll introduce our distinguished guests in just a moment, but first I want to say If this conference had been held one month ago We would be having a very different conversation than the one we're about to have right now the attack by Hamas on Israel on October 7th and Israel's response have shattered the status quo and Put a big question mark over the immediate future of this region The repercussions, of course, have been global. It's being felt around the world Over the next hour and a half. We'll explore What has changed since October 7th so far and what hasn't changed? What's at stake in the coming months and how the conflict might shape the region moving forward now We're not going to talk exclusively about the conflict, but there's a good chance that 98% of it will will be related to it now Understandably public attention right now is focused very much on the suffer on the profound suffering and risks Inherent in this war, but I will encourage our panel to explore To also reflect on the possibility for exploring a viable solution to the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict because obviously such a solution Can be regarded as essential to the future of peace and stability in the region Now we do have a great panel on this topic. I'm gonna just quickly introduce them now Starting from my left Muhammad Bahroon, I got that right as director and co-founder of the Dubai policy Public Policy Research Center before that. He was editor of the Gulf Defense Magazine and worked for multiple media outlets. So a colleague in that sense He played a key role in the United Arab Emirates national identity initiative I understand and he's a founding board member of the of a busola the busola Institute Which is a Brussels based think tank focusing on the ties between the EU and the Gulf Cooperation Council states. So, yeah Nabil Fahmi next to him and I'm sure that Understand that you've been here also time or two yourself Is Dean emeritus at the American University in Cairo or he founded the school of global affairs He's also a career diplomat. He was Egypt's minister of foreign affairs and Also ambassador to the United States and Japan before that He also worked extensively with the United Nations on disarmament and international security Renaud Girard is senior reporter and international columnist at the French Daily Le Figaro He covered global political crises and armed conflicts for 40 years He's a journalist or also a colleague in that sense, but you know very accomplished much more accomplished than I am He's written several books on the Middle East and diplomatic issues. So he's well-versed in these topics Polka Pautas someone I've known for quite a while in Germany when he was head of Stiftung Wissenschaft and Politique that's international in the Institute for international and security affairs SWP some of you may know He is currently under secretary general and head of the strategic review team of the United Nations assistance mission in Iraq He formerly served as special representative of the secretary general For Sudan and head of the UN's transition assistance mission in Sudan He was also UN assistant secretary general and senior advisor to the UN special envoy for Syria And was previously director of the as I mentioned of SWP So we've got someone very with intimate knowledge of a couple of the signatories of the Abraham Accords as well It's a mar Rabinovic Was supposed to be be joining us. He couldn't travel here. He's going to still try whether we're trying to reach him right now He was planning to visit us remotely. We're hoping that he'll be here He's professor emeritus of Middle Eastern history at Tel Aviv University And president emeritus and counselor of the Israel Institute with offices in Washington and Tel Aviv Distinguished fellow at the Brookings Institution and so on he served as ambassador of Israel to the United States and chief negotiator with Syria in the mid 1990s that that experience would be very valuable to have with us today I'm hoping that we will still be able to contact him Remotely, I'll keep you up to date on that and at the other end of our large stage here We have Dorothe Schmidt. She is head of the Turkey Middle East program at the French Institute of International Relations if free which behind this her work has focused on European policies in the Mediterranean and the Middle East on the Dynamics in these regions and on the Arab policy of France She's done extensive work tracking the emergence of Turkey as a global power So thank you to all of our panelists for being with us today It's an amazing group of speakers that I think are going to be able to Give us some real insights on on where we are and where things might be headed We'll start with each of our speakers delivering some opening remarks Remarks will be delivered partly in English mainly in English partly in French So if you need some headphones, please please get them now I will then get the discussion going along the way I plan to integrate some input from from the floor from all of you So during the last third of the of the session We're going to try to I'll be calling on you for questions or if you just raise your hand when we get there So let's let's see who wanted to be first. I think not be a family wanted to be first. There you go floor is yours Thank you. Thank you very much. I'm not sure I wanted to be you Nobody wanted to be first that was the point Kindly offer. Let me first thank Terry for the kind invitation to be back here It's always been in very informative event for me. I've learned a lot from many of the panels. I want to also start by repeating what you just said a Month ago or a little bit more when I first got the invitation to come Look at the topic and I frankly would have given you a completely different presentation Because as an Egyptian Looking westwards. I see a failed state on my right in Libya I See a failed state in Sudan southwards Was no peace process. There was no there was no violence But there's no peace process looking eastwards between the Palestinians and the Israelis Syria is still coming out of a nightmare and then all the way down to Yemen and the tensions with Iran there were a lot of problems. I Won't focus on any of them, but let me simply say that I actually expect what happened in Gaza They have negative effects on all of these Because on the one hand there is clearly a regionalization of conflicts in the region with the major powers Trying to figure out what role they want to play and there's going to be an opportunity for Players in all of these conflict conflicts Try to get as much more leverage of their positions than in the past when We weren't focused on the Gaza issue second point. I'd make is And I've gone horse trying to make this over the years is Never assumed that the Arab Israeli conflict is over Only because there's no active bloodshed occurring And it's something that we kept hearing over and over again the Palestine issue is not important It's not a pressure point. It's not a priority It always breaks out Unless we solve the problem between Arabs and Israelis The question will never be Whether or not there will be violence it will be when is the next cycle of violence Whether it's on the previous conflicts I mentioned or on the most recent conflict countries in the region have to Have better governance and when I mean that I mean not only domestically and regionally But also in terms of respect for international law in their international relations unless that becomes the focus of How we operate and how we move the idea of a balance of power that's always a variant and The problem here is that it's not always a balance of power between nation states It's a balance of power between who's ready to to cause more damage and more pain on the other side when One looks at what happened recently clearly There is a higher profile for non-state parties and clearly There is an argument being presented. I don't agree with it that irrespective of the issue revenge and Collateral damage in you may encounter damage is acceptable in order to respond to what is considered to be the initial source of conflict my We my point really here is we need to have an Arab Israeli Process that leads to Arabs and Israelis living peacefully in the Middle East and at the core of that is the Palestinians and the Israelis That will require Ending of occupation and it will require to be able to have the national identity for Israelis and for the Palestinians in Viable sovereign states. I've heard very frequently that Two-state solution is dead or difficult. I I argue it's difficult much more now than in the past. I don't think it's dead and I Though I hope it's not dead because I don't see a one-state solution as a viable alternative to solve the problem one state solution means that the Israelis and the Palestinians Or go their desire for a singular national identity and Decide on a common identity between them and I don't see that happening peacefully. It may become a one-state reality But then you will have continuous conflict between these two peoples because it can't be a reality That ends up giving priority to one state versus the others. Now. Let me just for a very few minutes My country started the peace process with Israel after embarking on a war which was intentionally started with the Explained objective of starting negotiations. That's I'm talking about the 73 war And we were the first to sign a peace agreement That being said even back then in the 70s part of our agreement with the Israelis had a framework agreement or To create a threshold for an agreement between Palestinians and Israelis What happened in the last five weeks four weeks? Is really going to the core of Arab-Israeli hatred and anger and if we start to light that fire again We will all pay a very severe price for nation-states as Angry as they may be have to respect international law have to respect international humanitarian law and including the laws that govern war and We need to go back to trying to establish a two-state solution now. Is that possible now? I'll sum it up in very few words we need to deal on an emergency basis with a Crisis management situation the continuous deaths of civilians every day destruction of Gaza About 25 if not 30 percent completely destroyed cannot be the basis for Relationship between Arabs and Israelis or every combatant That is killed you are planting the seeds for 10 more who have lost family and will want revenge and retribution in the future, so The we need to get a ceasefire not for the ceasefire's sake but just to control the Viciousness of the combat with the objective of ultimately then moving on to a conflict resolution phase Which has to be essentially a two-state solution? I would argue that this requires an Arab initiative We need to take the issue in our own hands and it also requires responsibility of the major states Globally be there the Americans. I just came from China the Chinese or anybody else to go back to How do we bring the parties the Israelis and the Palestinians in particular back to a negotiating table if they don't believe in the end result This is be my closing comment Having done these negotiations for most of my career This is not the best time to start this project By any standard whether and whether it's respect to the leadership paradigm on the Palestinian side or the Israeli side But we can't afford not to and I therefore suggest that Dealing with the crisis situation is imperative, but then What we need to put to the Israeli and Palestinian Center to the public is Not an interim solution. We need to actually offer them. What are the elements in as much detail as we can of closure? Where will the two-state solution actually be? How do we deal with the different components of that and that will ultimately? achieve for Palestinians what they want in terms of national state and it will achieve for the Israelis what they are even calling for in the midst of combat, which is security For Israelis in the future. So let me just throw out those two points. This is not the time for Continued violence there. We're planting the seeds of Non-state party violence for the future and it's not the time for incremental proposals Because they aren't enough to bridge the pain and get over what's happened over the last few weeks. Thank you very much Now be a family think thank you very much You've touched on a number of points, which I'm sure we're going to be picking up on over the next hour or so What's what came through for me most importantly? It's not just an Israeli Palestinian issue There's the Arab Israeli issue that needs to be addressed as well And there may be room within this and seeking solutions and in these processes that you've suggested need to be pushed forward There may be a role for other actors outside the region from around the world To play a diplomatic role. Thank you very much We're going to move to Dorothy now Dorothea Schmidt the floor is yours Thank you Terry So I think it's not an easy moment for us all because we lately we were mainly commenting on the Deconfliction in the region Speaking about the Saudi Iran normalization about the Abrahamic Accords, of course prospects of normalization with Syria that had been ushered back into the Arab League and now we've just been Drawn back again backwards in history to this Israeli-Palestinian conflict that we all Wanted to forget or we it seems that we miss something something very big because now we see the consequences consequences are sort of spreading within all of these conflicts That we were trying to solve just like Nabil Fahmi said I must have speaking as an as an EU citizen Who's been an observer? Rather fascinated observers of the efforts that the EU's done to establish and stabilize the Palestinian Authority all of these efforts that felt totally into the Hamas trap in 2006 after the elections When the EU decided to turn its back on on Raza and we are now Against as I said drawn forcibly into this trap So the three points I want to make is first that I think we're going through a moment of flu that has been described more less by Nabil Fahmi in the beginning of his speech saying that Most regionals actors are still struggling with where they should stand and what how they're going to coalesce or not to find a solution But my concern is that this moment of flu could freeze into a sort of again the West against the rest and Raza will be the sort of symbolic points that would catalyze this divide of the West Explicitly said the US the EU and Israel against a very Heterocrit sort of a group of countries that have stood against What they feel as blatant injustice against the massacre in Raza that have been are being perpetrated by by Sahel currently as a sort of revenge operation for this horrendous attack that they've gone through in early October So my problem is how do we avoid? Falling into again this narrative that I see emerging Against this flu and the flu is because we work on the backdrop of the collapse of state structures Most of the countries in the region. We've seen that in CIR arguably Lebanon is becoming sort of face-state as well war are spreading None or unresolved conflicts and we have also this flu between what is a conflict? What's the war that was alluded to by a theory this morning and I see I heard the Rasan Salami saying now you don't declare war these days We slide into war. So this is this is the concern we have is that we've been drawn into war everybody's wondering about Potential escalation with Lebanon the Hezbollah says they don't want to go to war the limit Lebanon is exhausted but they might be sort of sliding into war without even realizing it so This this emerging Rational of the the West against the rest on Gaza specifically Goes with this idea that the the area of conflict is enlarging in the mines There has been a historical effort to sort of constrain the conflict to Palestine against Israel After the Arab-Israeli conflict, but I think this is totally failing now On the contrary lots of countries now feel Concerned for the situation there, but the other side which is also a lot worrying for our own societies Western societies is that through migrations and diasporas? We see the divide operating in our own societies now and threatening order peace In our own societies and in France. This is particularly a clear so Who is the rest if we have the West on one side the rest is you have two very big Opportunistic actors Russia and China clearly Russia now turning its back on Israel, but also Israel turning its back on Russia So this is sort of mutual soft divorce currently China who is now expressing interest for the they have they have always said that they were in favor they were in favor of the Two-state solution. I mean if you if you go to the sort of very Classical consolidated rhetoric of the Chinese they may have been the last defenders of the two-state solutions in the world Maybe but I see Africa and Asia a lot as I said now standing against The humanitarian massacre, but also whether they feel as a political injustice in Gaza The second point is in that context. I think I think three countries are especially interesting to look at The three countries to me. I know of course Israel Iran You know some protagonists that we will have to dwell on to speak about more later But for me what's more interesting nowadays Egypt Why because it was the first Arab countries to make peace with Israel and now As Jordan actually there's a question mark about how to proceed When large the zone of peace the second interesting actor protagonist is Saudi Arabia Because there is a lot of pressure on them to revive the peace plan And the idea is that maybe there could be a sort of coming of age of the Saudi diplomacy now And as Nabil Fahmi said we need an Arab solution for this We need an Arab plan anyway, so they may have the symbolic material resource But do they have the political maturity to do it and the third country which I know and I'm following on a daily basis is Turkey Which actually moved from the status of outsider to a primary actor in this conflict also with Taipeh Dohan having pursuing a very consistent pro-Palestinian, you know stance and Being extremely vocal against Israel for the last 15 years And proposing to mediate and the beginning and now again escalating rhetorically against Israel But my my concern is that you should think in terms of military escalation I mean everyone has also said many times that he thought Sahal was behaving in a very un-moral way and that they should not go too far etc. And we know Turkey is the one Military power that is extremely active in the region currently and they already had an skirmish with Israeli forces in 2010 that led to the breakup of relations with Israel So to conclude how do we avoid this scenario and sorry I'm insisting on these three countries also because they're on both sides I won't say that they're private countries, but they're friends of the West, but they talk to the rest They're part of the rest if you want So how do we avoid this scenario of an isolated West against an angry global South as the Americans would frame it? I think it is very clear that we have to take political responsibility for the Palestinians and not economic responsibility The matter has become political again And there of course Americans are the ones who everybody will turn to to make peace and I think again They are the number one and we see blinkin has a very hard time now traveling to the to the region and rebalancing from week to week how to operate with every protagonist of the crisis The EU that has been rather silent Has stood with Israel, but clearly there is this Deep historic regret of having failed on the Palestinian solution But I think the the country that we have to speak about also is clearly there in terms of responsibility Israel Because first thing is that I think you have to make peace with the countries you are all you are at war with I mean the Abrahamic Accord are a very interesting device diplomatic device But the countries that are involved are not the ones that have to make real peace with Israel. In fact, they're not Primarily concerned with the conflict and then I think of course we have to Find a way to make the Israelis look at at the at the Palestinians political partners again and not only as a sort of a leftover of a of the the grand quest for the consolidation of the Israeli nation-state So is it wishful thinking of course we will be struggling we now we know it now it's time for war clearly But it's also time for the humanitarian operations as had been said all for these three days also but working towards a Sustainable solution I like totally agree with them if I mean that it now it's time to close this file Otherwise it can escalate So we have to close it It means we also have a historical opportunity to take care of this This requires political patronage clearly from the US according to me and this will not be easy With maybe the next administration. We don't know what the future brings it needs political will But it also needs economic resources, of course, and this is where the Abrahamic Accords rational has its place clearly Thank you very much Dilatate I You know you've covered again a lot of ground did all of the points that are being made here are hugely germane to our Discussion you mentioned Turkey. It's my understanding that President Biden is planning to meet with Turkish president Reguptav Erdogan tomorrow. I believe he's traveling to the region that that should be an interesting meeting to keep our eyes on The points you were making about the potential the risks inherent in this conflict that it has the potential to Freeze over into a conflict between again this term that's been popping up here The West against the rest and you were you kindly helped to define what the rest might be and Where we had a bit of an issue on that yesterday, but you also pointed out the risk of this you know of countries Who in the region sliding into war thinking particularly about About has Bola and Lebanon on this the risk of that but you then emphasize the the importance of of trying to expand the Zone of peace as you put it which I think is a nice phrase to describe the some of the surrounding Arab countries that have made peace with Israel and potential for doing that forward So your question about how to get the Israelis and the Palestinians back working on a on a common political project for their own Mutual benefit would indeed be the the challenge. Thank you very much the I'm I can see now on my screen that we might be able to bring in our Our participant from Israel. Yeah, look at that. I do see something great. Excellent. I'm really happy about that Just just tell you guys I'm wearing my my headphones Maybe this is for the technical crew because the monitors it makes it very difficult for me to Understand what people with the other end to even write you know next to me are saying so I'm just wearing this for my own benefit Thank you very much now Ita Mar Rabinovich, can you hear me? Yes, I can Excellent. Oh, and you hear me we can and we're so glad that you're with us because your voice in this conversation is essential Can you tell us where you're joining us from we can see you're in a in a vehicle? I'm in a vehicle We had some understanding about the panel, so I'm not At my home as I plan to be I'm in my car, but Speaking on my phone And Excellent we can see and hear you very well, and it's just fine that you're in that car We're very glad that you can join us today Would would you like to offer a few comments? We've just been getting underway I did an introduction of our guests including yourself with the hope that you would be joining us and We've heard from a couple of speakers so far. We've touched on some of the themes You know, we've been in email contact with one another So we're staying pretty much on track with what we discussed. Would you like to offer some comments to the plenary? At this point over the next couple minutes and then before we move on to the next speaker Yes, yes, I think that you need to look at the so-called the day The day after the day after We must have a vision of where where we want to take the region and the Arab-Israeli relationship to which means dealing with Larger Palestinian question in the Israeli relationship with the Palestinian Authority and I I heard the reference Before to the West against the rest. It doesn't have to be that And I think there are several countries in the Middle East that do not see the problem with the West but see the problem with Iran And our host itself Saudi Arabia and others have been the targets of violence by proxies of Iran. I see that the current war is Not just a war between Israel and Hamas, but between Israel and Israel is targeted or threatened by five Iranian proxies and In order to organize the region to deal with these issues They will have to be a plan for dealing with the Israeli-Palestinian relationship It's difficult to envisage it. We're in the middle of a war We have The wrong government the wrong Israeli government for doing that, but the need is there the debate inside Israel today is do you deal with the Political issues domestically in the middle of a war. Do you wait for the end of the war? Whatever that and Maybe But I hope that at the end of it there'll be in government in Israel that would be willing to look at the larger picture and to fit into a scheme that would help organize the region Including dealing with the larger Palestinian question Thank you very much If you don't have anything to add we'll move along That sounds it didn't take you very long to get to Iran and Iran's proxies The role that they're playing in this in this war. I think that's a hugely important part of this of course We need to discuss that. It's also important what you mentioned about the political context within Israel itself and the Ability of the Israeli government or willingness of it to To address this problem in a constructive way. These are question marks that you've raised Thank you. Thank you for now. If you don't have anything else to add. I don't want to interrupt you Okay, our our our connection seems to be stable. I hope it will stay that way So we'll continue then here on on the panel bringing in voices Let's go now to Volker Pertes. You're next Sure, thank you. Thank you, Terry. Let me first say I have to say that I'm speaking here in a In a purely private capacity I have colleagues in the UN system who are working day and night on the conflict and they are the ones who should speak officially for the For the United Nations, but of course, I'm a colleague of them and I I support the great works they're doing both on the humanitarian and on the political front When I thought about this panel, I thought that I I hope that this great group of people Would probably come up with two things a with with lessons which we always need lessons From where we go from here what we have learned from from the current crisis and what went wrong before and then of course avenues for Diplomacy avenues for diplomatic actions blows both to protect civilians and to reach an end to the conflict and to open a new path to peace and Security in the Middle East which would include of course that Israel can live in recognized and secure borders and that's a Palestinians can live in dignity in their own state and in peace with in peace with their Neighbors, maybe I should start with a comment what actually Happened or how it looks to me on 7th, October. We had an unprecedented horrific terrorist attack Targeting mainly civilians more than a thousand killed more than 200 abducted taken hostage and I Think that not only in Jewish eyes This Does not look Like an act of resistance against occupation, but it looks like a pogrom it looks like mass murder and nothing else and it was followed by a Horrific counter-attack on the Gaza Strip Which has been creating a humanitarian disaster unprecedented for the Gaza Strip at least the victims again being mainly civilians and the order or The advice to one million Palestinians from the northern part of the Gaza Strip to evacuate to the south Brings up for many Palestinians the trauma or the memory of forced Displacement placement and exile I can only underline here what my secretary general secretary general of the United Nations Said that nothing Not even the grievances of Palestinians Over decades can justify the appalling attack by Hamas but also That this appalling attack by Hamas cannot justify any Collective punishment of the people in Gaza Even wars have laws we call them international humanitarian laws Today and in our international humanitarian law has to be upheld any time we need an immediate and Unconditional release of all hostages We need immediate Sustained humanitarian aid and we need at least a humanitarian ceasefire to make that possible Let me add that the Secretary General of the United Nations also And he was heavily criticized for that by some actors. He also spoke of context or He said that this horrific acts haven't happened in a vacuum and yes He was criticized for that but let me make clear that if you speak of context and Context as such Does not justify Anything Certainly not actions against our deepest human norms But we do need to know The context in order to understand the chain of events and even more importantly We need to be aware of historical contexts in order to lay out a Strategy and a path for the future if we try to strategize without context We will not get very far So let me come to the lessons. I Think the main lesson and Nabil has has basically said it in different words and Anwar Gargash spoke about it yesterday is That it is not possible Achieve peace and stability in the wider Middle East Without an acceptable solution Choose a Palestinian issue or put it differently. We cannot substitute regional peace Or peace between Palestinians and Israelis. I think the Government of the United Arab Emirates was aware of that When it signed the Abraham Accords because it linked its signature at that time to Israel abstaining from Annexing parts of the West Bank. So the link was was very very Here I think the second lesson again and again and it's not a new lesson is that You cannot separate humanitarian political and security issues or put it differently again if people are left in utter humanitarian distress also after this crisis and this will only breed more desperation more hate and probably also New terror So where to go other avenues for diplomacy. I think we have to distinguish between the immediate and the midterm in the immediate Future in the next days in the next weeks Of course, I repeat we need a humanitarian ceasefire or humanitarian ceasefires and we need to prevent the wider war or sliding as Dorotus had Into a wider war, which means a lot of responsibility for regional actors not only For the United States or United Nations or other international players, but particularly for Actors in the region Now speaking of Arab states here who have made peace with Israel at the same time. I'm looking to this country here Who have also normalized relationships with Iran which actually gives a chance to work for de-escalation region was a midterm I Guess we should not ignore The date of sihamas attack, which was exactly 50 years after the October war or Yom Kippur war of 1973 and that I think raises a challenge to international diplomacy to In a way try to make this another 1973 moment Now, I know historical analogies only go so far and they are always limited in value, but 1973 war With the effort of strong American diplomacy at that time led to peace between Egypt and Israel and it led to a stabilization between Syria and Israel which held for decades and It let the PLO Palestinian Liberation Organization to embracing political engagement and focus on statehood and Statehood at the side of Israel in the West Bank of Gaza Now, of course, I know that the history of Middle East peace efforts in the 50 years had passed Was full of failures and setbacks and people who wanted to undermine it. I don't want to go through this history It would also take us much beyond our panel time here however, I would in this context say That diplomacy after this war Needs to restart serious comprehensive peace efforts and I totally concur with my friend Nabil that if it doesn't look as very realistic Probable to achieve in the next couple of weeks or months or years. We still have to make an effort. There is no alternative to that And what does it mean? I think it means in the first place that diplomatic efforts to Find a solution or find a series of interconnected solutions Cannot be about recreating the status quo ante in Gaza Which is about or has been about in the last couple of years managing or as Anwar Gargash said yesterday containing the conflict that has not worked I think that's a UN Security Council has to decide on security arrangements for Gaza Rather soon and if I take up what Nabil said about an Arab initiative or an Arab plan I think security arrangements could or probably should include a UN mandated temporary Arab military presence in Gaza in order to maintain security and Keeps a peace after this Israeli operation or war and then we need a well prepared New peace conference comprehensive peace conference that will certainly not be for 2024 because it needs time For preparation It may arguably be co-sponsored by the United States and China under UN auspices, I hope and it should clearly define The two-state solution as an outcome not sort of be too open on Outcomes as some of the other speakers said the two-state solution is back because the alternatives to the two-state solution have not worked and it needs to include social economic dimension Which also builds on the Abraham Accords As well as the normalization between Gulf Arab states and Iran So looking at the conditions here We are actually in a slightly better place than we were in 1991 There are other dimensions where we are not in a better place But let us look to those conditions Which we can use or exploit productively to actually go forward On a path out of this catastrophe And into a peaceful or more peaceful future of the Middle East. Thank you Thank you very much Focupetez Some excellent points there both reviewing the where things are now and how it relates to What has happened in the past looking at At wars in the past that have indeed led to Opportunities windows for pursuing peace with at least some of of Israel's neighbors What I found particularly interesting that the point you made about the The need for a UN mandated temporary Arab military Presence in Gaza at some point to to as a stabilizing temporary Transitional period also is something I'm hearing more and more about Also at this at this conference. So I mean, thank you also further for the UN reviewing the UN perspective and also the Importance of context that this is the context here is hugely complex and important very good Sitting right next to me I haven't forgotten you and I'm I remember you being a very polite host saying that you you don't want to be first And so I'm we're going to get to you. You're going to be last So you will meanwhile though we're going to give the floor to Renault Girard The floor is yours Merci October The consequences are evidently quite different From the terrorist attack on September 11 The terrorist attacks on October 7 Will have, I think, a considerable impact On not only on the region but I even think on The entire world. So in fact, if I were to give a summary my conference would be a local conflict A world price And it's not the case of all the conflicts Recently We had a conflict In a territory about as big as La Sigeordanie La Sigeordanie is a French department like Superficies, it's about 6,000 square kilometers It's called the Haut-Karabas And all the population of Haut-Karabas ended up being hunted In a conflict If we take the conflict of September 2020 and the last days of the conflict Who, in the number of deaths is about what this conflict of this October has done It went completely like a letter to the post Nobody spoke to us much more in English in the world that is happening at the moment like the conflict between the Tigrayans the Eritreans the Amaras, the Oromos, the Ethiopians Nobody speaks and it continues with a number of deaths and refugees much higher Why do we talk about the time of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? First, because in international relations the feeling is much more important than reality It's the feeling of reality that is important and the feeling is that there was an abominable crime in Europe and the West especially the Americans who didn't do much to save the Jews because of the Royal Hotel where they refused to take the Jewish refugees from Germany the great power of the time and the Soviet Union for other reasons wanted to repair a a crime the crime of choice by an injustice or what was resented by an injustice the problem is much more complex than that because in fact in Palestine you have two legitimacy the Arab legitimacy since in 1880 there were 500,000 Arabs for 30,000 Jews in Palestine which was an Ottoman region and the Zionist legitimacy because the Jews came from Europe they built a state when they arrived in Tel Aviv there were marais there were moustiques they built this state so you have two legitimacy which is opposed but the feeling of not only Arab nations Arab peoples I'm not talking about governments I'm talking about populations because we repaired a crime by an injustice but it's the same for non-Muslim populations of other continents we saw very strong reactions for example in Latin America to these images to feel in Latin America while in Latin America there is nothing with the problem of Israel and Palestine so this October there will be consequences first, local local conflict and global consequences local consequences it's very simple in Israel we now have the proof that the security right is less good than the progressive left to protect the citizens Israeli citizens no left government had 1400 massacred citizens and the mistake it's ideological is that we have disbanded the southern front to send it instead of protecting the internationally recognized borders of Israel we have been sent these Israeli soldiers to protect illegal colonies and colonies that have been very bad since the beginning of the year killing more than 200 Palestinians with a sort of license to kill given by the government of right and extreme right Israeli this is the proof and obviously the government will have to pay to not protect those who were more pacifist and who wanted peace with the Palestinians on the side of the Hamas there will also be a problem that we didn't quite remember is that the feeling in the Arab population it's true that in the social networks we have saluted the Hamas military to have used these these little helicopters but there was still a very big problem of a discipline and of crime against babies against old people and all the movements and resistance movements are not in the story of the Middle East I personally attended after the Israeli retreat of 2000 which had not been announced where the Israelis betrayed their Christian allies of the south at the take of this territory by the Hezbollah not a gif not a flight not a rape the discipline and this discipline which proved the Hezbollah there are some officers of the Melaad who were but they were not released I brought it to justice and I think that the Hamas there will be consequences for the Hamas in this incredible discipline of the soldiers who committed all these horrors then of course we have a polarization accrued between the West and the South two measures because the feeling is that we have heard the West giving a lot of lessons especially during the destruction of Mariupol in Russia in Vladimir Putin and there not only the Muslims of the world who are behind the Hamas banner but also in Latin America but the American bombs in Gaza are exactly the same it is Mariupol who is doing it so it was an incredible gift which was made to Putin other economic consequences the First Minister had announced the Constitution of a new economic corridor between so he said the India the Emirates the Saudi Arabia the Israeli Jordan he had to compete with another route project China Iran Iraq Syria attacked Greece I think today the new corridor announced by really like Abraham's agreements really the Dutch plan so to conclude there is a good news there is a world consensus maybe not within the Israeli society but even in the Israeli society there are many people who agree you have to fix the Palestinian problem you have said it is absolutely wrong to say it is impossible to do it is difficult but it is absolutely possible even it is enough to look at the agreements the negotiation of Taba of course we can have Jerusalem as capital of a Palestinian state because it is enough to walk port of Damascus only Arabs who live there for the Palestinian state to face the 22% of the Palestinian people who were accepted to Algeria by Arafat in 1988 but as Eli Barnavi said who was an Israeli historian who is the former ambassador of Israel to Paris in fact Israel for its good must be imposed a solution because Israel is too strong and therefore only an international conference can impose a solution to Israel this international conference is not very difficult to organize because in fact it is a subject where you have a convergence the Americans, the Russians, the Chinese the English the Saudi the Arabs have the same idea the problem we have is that these great international actors agree on the solution for the Israeli-Palestinian problem but it is tripping on other subjects is the meeting possible it is a technical question I finish here it is a technical question the people of WCSI are the best and so I am waiting your suggestions I think repercussions are indeed being felt all around the world there is no doubt about that we feel it in Western Europe where I live it is being felt in Latin America as you pointed out in many different parts of the world so there is a lot that is dependent on what happens next thank you very much for now and I have to apologize I think most of our speakers my apologies to the audience for not leaving as much time for our discussion at the end as I would like but we are going to move towards that last phase of the program and it is my great pleasure to have Mohammed Baharun now give his observations thank you very much I will try to get to the seven minutes mark hopefully first of all thank you very much for having me it has been a long way to be here in the UAE to be part of this discussion the title of the discussion and this is a sort of a warning I think we have heard is the Middle East in the next five months that is right next few months that was the title Middle East warning nothing about this region is regional everything is global and I think we have just heard that so there is always global implications five months we have already a few months we have already heard that a month ago things could have changed and I think this could stay but let me talk about Gaza as an example and this is when it comes to the operation it is a local operation we have got Israeli troops and they are conducting an operation in Gaza which is so it is a local war supposedly but there is also a lot of regional fears we have heard the fear about Iran or its proxy being involved in this war could spill out and that is one of those fears but there are also international realities part of the international realities is that there is about 40,000 American troops assembled in the region and we have got warships from the US, from the UK from France, from Greece in the region and we have also heard calls to turn the international coalition against ISIS to fight Hamas so there is a reality here that this is already internationalized we are afraid of regionalizing it but in reality it is internationalized and that is going to affect us now if we want to talk about what could happen in the few next months and I think the current progress of the operation and we have seen to the extent how many times the ground operation has been either delayed or changed over the week can tell us that this is going to be a lengthy operation and with that length of time will come casualties in people and that casualty of people would have an impact not only regionally but also internationally also the objectives of the military which is eliminating Hamas is very difficult to say at this point of time we can call this mission a success mission accomplished it is very difficult to draw lines on when that mission has been accomplished again that would draw a lot of time and would also affect the casualties but also there is this concept of those bridges of cooperation is now regressing so we have already seen the impact on countries like Turkey already mentioned countries like Egypt has been warning that if people have been driven into Gaza an operation across the borders to Israel a response from the Israeli could take us back to the time when there is war we are going back to the 1973 so those bridges of cooperation are now being hugely challenged and what it tells us that the clock in this region is ticking backwards we are looking backwards when the terrorist organization that was considered the terrorist organization today it is very difficult to discriminate it from the Palestinian people and you can see people going out in the streets calling for free Palestine no one says down to Hamas so that area between what is right and what is wrong and it is not because of the virtue of what Hamas did it is because of the virtue of the reaction to Hamas and I think the concept of international law when it comes to wars come to mind but it is the sheer understanding that what do you do for peace and I think this is the role of the armed struggle I think is coming back and Hamas is possibly now in the same position where PLO used to be during the Munich attack and you know this is now people are saying again that this is ISIS is different from Hamas because ISIS has occupied land but Hamas did not occupy land it is occupied those type of comparisons are now becoming common ground which hasn't been two months ago or three months ago and what we've heard several times here and I think as Excellency Fahmi was talking about the national identity this is going back to become an identity conflict and unfortunately it's not a nation based it's a religious identity it's a Jewish identity and it's quite you know difficult when you see for instance Secretary Blinken coming to Israel after the attack and say I'm Jewish I know what he's doing but for the rest of the world what they see is that this is now turning into a Muslim's conflict and that is a very difficult position to be in because it will bring back all of those identity conflicts that we have seen in the past so if you want to look not only to the next few months because it's you know really very limited what are the long term impact in the next few years so I think one of what we've here is the attraction of the west of the global west in front of the expansion of the global south it's not the north versus the south it's the south versus the west and we've here this very clearly before and I think this is a reality if you look at the pattern of voting in the UN this is quite obvious and I think we shouldn't be slipping into that type when whatever is always connected to international community to international norm we just looked at this as just the western norms and it does not apply all the time it applies in certain times I mean people would say you want Iran not to intervene but the US is already intervening on the ground and that's contradictory when it comes to principles and we're also looking at the rise of the middle powers middle power states are now taking lead because international leadership is not being regarded as something that is going to take us somewhere and it's quite interesting to see for instance countries like Saudi Arabia or the UAE celebrating the G77 over the G7 because they see that the future of the world order is to the middle and small powers organizing together, galvanizing a position together but there is still opportunities opportunities is the analogy made on what happened after 1973 which is the peace because any war conducted is a tool, it is not an objective and the objective of any war is peace so how could we peace be looked at in this so I think one of the major concepts that we can see today is that there is a failure in the concept of security at gunpoint weapons do not buy security security concept is changing we have seen this here in the UAE after COVID-19 we've seen that with all of the military mind that you might have it's not going to stop your people from dying and we realize that walls is not going to buy security it is roads that will create security I don't think that this is a concept that has been seen inside Israel today I think Hamas is here in this region I think Hamas is in a position to do exactly what the PLO did at a certain point of time exactly what the Saudis did recently is turn from a resistance group into a state and I think this is where we need an investment in statehood the statehood not only of the Palestinian state but also the statehood of Israel because Israel is our partner in peace Hamas was not our partner in peace at most of the time it is difficult to have partner in peace who does not do their due share when it comes to peace and I think I'll stop there I might say something later on about what Iran could be looking at but I'll stop there I really appreciate you pointing out the fault lines that are associated with this conflict that extend to different regions but to other parts of the world it was interesting to me how you set up an opposition between the west and the south in this case when we talk about what is the rest when we talk about the west versus the rest we've had that located in China and Russia we've had it located now in the south I presume the global south you're referring to there by that probably emerging nations I also found it interesting your reference to Iran and it's the contrast with the United States Iran of course has its proxies in the region so they're not official forces but I found that interesting parallel but we are going to be coming back to this we only have like 13 minutes left in this session and I'm told that I need to be on time I'm only going to ask one question I've been preparing this for some time as you might imagine so I have lots of questions here but I'm only going to put one question to the panel and we don't need answers from everyone but maybe someone who wishes to jump in on this before I open the floor and that is the question so what next we've talked about this possibly indeed creating conditions that would allow the pursuit of a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict which would have great value, Falka Pautas suggested steps that could be done in that process but the question is under the auspices of whom how would that process be started how would it be organized who would take the lead on that would it be the United Nations the United States, the EU the EU has offered to host a peace conference we've seen Egypt host a peace conference very early on that didn't get too far but how do we begin to work on a solution under what construct any ideas from any of you what would be most promising may I say that any solution should start in Israel and in Palestine which means we now need a good will capital from Israel saying I am in for a two-state solution because unless that is clear any effort we're doing is going to be momentarily building this of course would need to be there on both sides that's clear but I'm just wondering under whose auspices Falka Pautas one of the things the auspices is an easy one you can have it under the auspices of the United Nations but the question is who leads the conference and I think if you don't have the heavy weights in it will not lead to anything I mean remember 1991 if at that time the US hadn't been there together with the Soviet Union which was on it last breath it wouldn't have gone forward so it's very clear that the US has to be at the head table and leading it and putting all its weight behind and then you have to ask who are the main associates which the United States needs in the current geopolitical and regional situation and here would say China has to be at the head table there is no I mean you can add others but China has to be there and yet then you have to have the Arab states who already have peace with Israel at the head table we don't have to make peace between Israel and the Emirates or between Israel and Jordan or Israel and Egypt or Israel and Morocco but these states have to be there as key mediators when you say the main players in that would need to be at the head of the table in dealing with this what about the elephant in the room what about Iran the elephant has to be at the table but not at the head table so Iran does need to be part of this and that would imply direct talks with Iran which would be an interesting prospect in itself I saw there was you wanted to intervene quickly or not just quickly and then I'm going to open the floor yes very quickly it's impossible to take a step deal with Gaza if you don't also link it to where you're going after Gaza Arabs will not create a force or be responsible for Gaza after all the devastation that occurred on the ground unless they can argue this is a step towards the two states solution so there has to be not only a statement also a linkage to where we're going towards the end of this and let me just make again one of my last point you should not be surprised why the Arabs are looking at the west as being biased you are biased but the what surprised people in the Arab world isn't your bias it is how far that bias is when you stand up against a ceasefire against even the humanitarian ceasefires when you attend a war cabinet then you can only blame yourself for the perception you leave okay that was a reference to Joe Biden's visit to Israel okay we are going to open up their floor now I see many questions on both sides we'll start from we'll go one in the middle then to the right and then to the left so sir I'm Stan Kozman from Capgemini one observation and a question observation is that to my knowledge the last time there was a serious attempt at a two state solution was 23 years ago in 2010 Eud Barak and Yasser Arafat trying to translate that today clearly it can't be Netanyahu and Hamas so it has to be a change in governance on both sides to make this happen with the support of this conference that you have been talking about now my question is assuming fast forwarding to let's say March next year assuming that this conference takes place with intent to have a two state solution blessed by this community what would that look like it can't be Gaza plus Jordania so what could be the border between two states under this scheme thank you very much I'll just comment before we pick up one more there was going to the lady here and then to the gentleman in the third row and then sir we'll come to you but not quite yet we'll come to you in a moment so the lady I just want to point out that in the year 2000 during Camp David when Eud Barak and Yasser Arafat met in the United States I was working for CNN at the time and it was one of the most poignant moments of my life when we got Saib Erekat on the phone walking out of the White House and I put the question to him why are you walking away from this deal which seems so close to a two state solution and he told me the right of return of refugees there are multiple issues and also I'm sure would have to be addressed along with the future of Jerusalem and the West Bank yes ma'am thank you sir I enjoyed the remarks that Itamar Rabinovich said which is let's talk now about the day after I have followed lately the comments of what he calls himself next leader of the Palestinian authority once Mr. Abbas passes away which I don't think would be very far so he believes that there is no such thing as a two state solution that Netanyahu has killed it so now we have to talk about the one state solution that's what he says and he thinks that the beginning of this is to get Mr. Netanyahu out I think that Mr. Rabinovich says exactly the same thing because they can have a new government with a new government it will probably be the people who are now demonstrating against Netanyahu who will form this new government and who will be much more amenable to speak about the solution of the Palestinian question please ask your question because we only have five minutes left please ask your question if you have a question or if you have one quick comment because we do want to allow other questions I have a comment, not a question what I just said that this Palestinian leader lives here he's called Mohammed Dahlan he has excellent connections with Israel with Egypt with the ruler here and I think that he should be put at the table and discuss what could happen because he has supporters inside Raza thank you very much he's been giving some interesting interviews providing some insights so now to the gentleman who has his hand up if we could get the microphone there and then we're going to get some responses from the panel thank you very much just two quick questions about long term geopolitical landscape question one what is the prospect of Abraham accord paradigm it seems to make sense to achieve Abraham accord paradigm seems to make sense before October 7 but now Abraham accord paradigm will get suspended unless two state solution will get realized and second question is if Abraham accord will be suspended Abraham accord trend will be suspended for maybe in the meantime how will Gulf state coexist with Iran thank you thank you very much all relevant points and questions we're going to just take these three first get a response and if we still have time we'll get to you anyone on the panel like to take any of those points that were made we've got a couple of things on the table very very well please join us yeah okay so the key is to bring the Palestinian Authority back into the picture first if there is an interim arrangement in Gaza be Arab, be international it has to be temporary and the Palestinian Authority that was expelled from Gaza violently by Hamas should return to Gaza and administer it this should invigorate the Palestinian Authority and make it again a viable partner for Israel to discuss the long-range two state solution put it on the agenda again this would enable other Arab states or the Arab states to join it we don't have too much time remember it's an election year in the United States and we don't have too many months to wait until that happens so action should begin quite immediately thank you very much yes sir there was a question about what kind of two state solution if I take you back not only to the Camp David negotiations between Israelis and the Palestinians and ultimately the Clinton parameters but I even take you back to what you said earlier the Taba talks all of the details of every single item are dealt with there there was no formal approval of these items for different political reasons so my point really is it's not about that somebody have to come up with a new formula for the border it's 67 possibly with some minor exchanges or refugees that's in the the Arab peace initiative which talks about an agreement on return of refugees and so on and so forth including East Jerusalem it's about the lack of political will so what I was trying to say at the beginning is let's put the essence and as much detail as we can of what the package will look like to resolve this once and for all if it results in a change of leadership on one side or on both sides ultimately that's not my concern my concern is the change moving towards peace between Arabs and Israelis particularly the Palestinians rather than moving towards a new cycle of violence there is no permanent security if the conflict continues great thank you then we will take one more question from the gentleman here in the second row and that will be our last question for today then we're out of time there were people several conferences several meetings to mention that as of Madrid Oslo who didn't have a solution of peace as stated by the Palestinians to have their right that is a Palestinian state with a capital and this process has failed because of the government of the Israeli government who didn't follow now my question to Mr. Brahimovic is that the Gaza crisis will make a price of conscience in Israel to end a political power that would accept the Palestinian right to a state thank you very good Mr. Ibrahim I can answer that go ahead public opinion polls in Israel show that 80% of the Israeli public lost their faith in the government and there is a debate whether you go through a change of government in the middle of the war whether you want to wait to the end of the fighting this could happen either through a new election or through other mechanism that the Israeli constitution constitutional arrangements I'm sure that sooner or later there will be a different government in Israel hopefully but on the other side thank you thank you very much I'm afraid we are out of time I've been told not to go over and I also know that some people have to catch a plane so we're going to leave it here ladies and gentlemen thank you very much for being with us thanks to our panel warm round of applause for a great discussion