 it. We are finally here. It is the 2021 NFL Draft and it's shaping up to be a big one with all the buzz that's been going around for today. Twitter, a glow throughout the entire day, which normally mean great things for tonight's draft. So let's settle in, get set and enjoy, which should be a fun night. Welcome here to the Fandal YouTube, Twitch, Facebook and Twitter pages. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for numberfire.com joined here by three fantastic analysts here to break down the draft for you. You're on the YouTube, Twitch, Facebook and Twitter pages of Fandal throughout this entire draft. Both today and tomorrow we'll be breaking down the DFS, betting and season long implications of the NFL draft, hopefully giving you some good actionable takeaways as you try to allocate money in the coming months. We're also giving away an NFL jersey to get entered for the NFL jersey of your choice. Go to YouTube. YouTube and the Fandal video is the name of the page there. Go to the description and check it out there. There is a King sumo link in the description. You can go there, get yourself entered for an NFL jersey of your choosing. Let's meet our analysts now starting off with the newest analyst at numberfire and Fandal. That is Ryan Williams. You can find him on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W Ryan. What's up man? Welcome to numberfire. How's it going? What's going on fellas? I'm happy to be here. It's been a long time waiting, I guess. I was able to go on vacation before starting. That's awesome. No, it's awesome. I mean, this is like Christmas for fantasy guys, right? Getting into the draft, seeing these landing spots. So what better way to start off than with this show right here? Absolutely. And because our audience does not know you, but Bethany Peters on YouTube already saying her new favorite analyst, Ryan. So you've already got fans in the crowd here. That's great. But Ryan, introduce yourself to the audience. You know, what's your background? Where are you coming from? And what are you specializing in when it comes to this this NFL draft live stream? For sure. For sure. Yeah. So Ryan, I mean, yeah, you got my Twitter handle nice. It's nice to be not in the driver's seat. That's usually what I do. I've been doing fantasy for years now, it seems like, but for the past five, six years, I've been with the Fantasy Authority doing DFS stuff for them and hosting that show, the Degenation Pod. So happy to be here doing DFS and best ball with the draft here tonight and hopefully chopping it up and winning people some money throughout the year with Fandals. So that's great here in Chicago. I'm curious to see what the Bears do if they keep the number 20 pick or trade up or trade back or just let people get fired tonight. I mean, we'll see what happens. So it's never a dull moment here in Chicago. But yeah, happy to be here with you guys, Jim, Brandon, JJ, let's ride, man. So Ryan, I asked you before, are you excited or afraid? What's the sentiment for a Bear's Fan on draft night? Jim, you just got to put me on the spot, man. The sentiment is always anxious, right? You never know what's going to happen, especially in the Ryan Pace era. I mean, who are we going to get? We're going to get Ryan or Kevin White. We're going to get Roe Kwan. We're going to trade up for Mitchell Javisky. I mean, it's nice to not be in that quarterback controversy this year. Let somebody else deal with it. Let San Fran deal with it. That's nice. So expectations aren't high, so hopefully they can do something to write the shit. Low expectations, the best thing in NFL draft or in NFL franchise could possibly have. So make sure you follow Ryan on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W. Also joined here by JJ Zachary, editor-in-chief of Number Fire and Fandle. And JJ, Ryan mentioned Kevin White's fun guy to bring up because you've been doing it. You've been researching a lot about guys who are not early declares and all that. I'm sure you're glad to stop thinking about that. Stop thinking about BMI and finally get this draft underway. Yeah, man. I want to see where these wide receivers end up going. It's a pretty interesting class overall. It's kind of deep like last year's class, I would say, but it's not the same kind of wide receivers that you're getting. So I think that you can make the argument that it's not that deep because there are a lot of smaller slot guys and those are more replaceable than the Alpha types that we saw last year, but there are some good wide receivers, especially at the top of the draft. So it's going to be a lot of fun to see where these guys finally land after analyzing their high school profiles, essentially, going all the way back there over the last couple of months. Hey, we have another Chicago one in the YouTube chat. It says, very afraid. So afraid versus excited. We've got, I think, two for afraid as of right now. Let's go to Brandon Gedula, managing editor of numberfire.com. My co-host on the heat check fantasy podcast, talking DFS and Brandon today. We got some dueling wind total projection. So are you prepared to lose this head to head for our wind total projections here? Uh, it's funny you phrase it that way, because the hat I'm wearing, I won off of you in a bet. Nice. I have no comeback. How are you doing tonight? I'm good. You know, there's a lot of ways to cover the NFL draft and growing up, what we had access to, what I had access to was film coverage. If it was like an offensive lineman or a linebacker, you'd see some tackles or some blocks with the highlight funnel. I got bored, but I'm excited to talk wind totals, fantasy projections, DFS angles. That's what I'm most interested in. That's why we're doing this. So I think that we got a lot of good information coming for those of us more interested in the fantasy angles than the hip swivels and things like that. Does that mean you were not grinding the Dylan Raiden's tape that I had asked you to watch? Did that not happen? I don't grind the tape. Okay. Well, we'll get back to this and we'll have some words for sure. Now, the NFL draft obviously very impactful because we're playing fantasy. We're playing DFS and we want to know who's going to produce in the NFL. And JJ, you've done a lot of research on this and the importance of draft capital. What does it mean for a player's fantasy outlook? What happens tonight here in the first round? Yeah. I mean, look, so draft capital, I have a model. I prospect running backs and wide receivers in this model and draft capital is a big input in that model. So at the running back position, it's more important than it is that the wide receiver position draft capital is. And I think that you can think of that sort of intuitively where a running back that gets drafted early, let's say in the first round, a team is going to throw him on the field ASAP and want him to get a lot of touches, et cetera, et cetera. And volume is much more driven at the running back position via coaching decision than it is actual talent. That's just the fact of the matter. I'm not saying that the guys who are getting a lot of volume in the NFL level at running back aren't talented. It's just that if a wide receiver is getting a target, it's more earned than a running back, seeing a touch on the ground, because a wide receiver has to actually get open in order for the quarterback to throw him the ball. So draft capital matters more at the running back position than it does a wide receiver, still matters a wide receiver. But just to give you an example though, since 2011, so after over the last decade, we've had 14 running backs drafted in round one. The average attempts for those running backs in year one, so as rookies, has been over 205. And that's with players who get injured, not playing a full 16 game schedule, now obviously 17 game. So yeah, draft capital matters a lot, especially at the running back position. So the guys that are going tonight, and we're going to be live tonight and tomorrow night, there's going to be one player in particular, Cadarius Tony, who profiles to be not very good analytically. And I'll go over all that when he gets drafted, but a guy like him who doesn't profile that well, but teams seem to like him. Film scouts who watch more film than I do seem to like him a lot. And he's athletic and he has that dynamic, but he's just an awful route runner and didn't have a good analytical and prospect profile. But if he goes in the first round, then you have this dilemma where you're staring at someone who has that draft capital, who you know first round wide receiver should do something, but then has this horrible analytical profiles. There's some dissonance that you have to figure out from a fantasy standpoint, but overall draft capital matters, matters a lot more running back and does that at wide receiver, but it matters for all players. And we have to put our opinions aside at some point, which is unfortunate because some of us still cling to those Marcus Mariota priors, not naming names. And it's definitely not me. I want to talk to you, Brandon, because you wrote a piece for Number Fire last week talking about the impact from an expected points perspective that guys can have right away when they are taken early on the draft. And both, I believe your win total projection model and mine rely on projecting net expected points. At least mine does. I don't know about yours, but what kind of impact can we see? Which positions drafted early on have the biggest impact and what's the overall impact we can expect from these first rounders as far as efficiency goes? Yeah. So my Sims are partially based in net expected points. That's where my subjective analysis comes in trying to project each offensive and defensive unit. But I also regress things like Super Bowl odds and win totals to try to get like a consensus vibe. That way it's not just all what I think is going to happen. So I feel I kind of check myself there. But yes, net expected points, which is Number Fire's expected points model, there are numerous expected points models out there nowadays. But I wanted to see, should I be overreacting? Should I be reacting heavily to what we see tonight in tomorrow and like these early round picks? And it was a high level approach when I looked into stuff. You know, yeah, if there's a complete overhaul, you would want to approach things a little bit differently. But those are pretty rare to see a team be completely, you know, indistinguishable from what they were a year ago. And I didn't really want to find like outliers and make excuses, but just kind of see overall trends. And realistically, what I found was, it's not a whole lot of reason to react to early picks. Surprisingly, teams that took running backs early in rounds one through three did improve their offensive efficiency, which kind of goes against what we say in the analytics department. But it makes sense because if you look back, teams that generally are taking running backs, A, yes, there are some running backs who make a difference. And that's, I don't think anyone really in the analytics universe is saying no running back can make any difference at all. So it's either the game changers or teams in good spots. And so they see their offense improved. But realistically, what we see is in this something similar to what you found years ago, teams that got banned from Dallas Cowboys Reddit for this. So they're subreddit for this. Teams that take offensive linemen generally see boost 60% of teams that took an offensive linemen in the first three rounds saw their year over year offensive efficiency improve. Now quarterbacks, it's kind of a coin flip whether you're going to improve or not. But it's one thing, teams that are taking quarterbacks early probably had a bad offense the year before. So you can kind of improve there. Surprisingly wide receivers though, and this is kind of a big one because there are going to be a lot of big name receivers taken early. They kind of don't really make a big impact in year one based on the whole, like the high level offense. And as far as defense goes, kind of forget about that. So I'm not going to overreact to too much of what we see updating my win simulations. You can keep the level head. I will overreact. That is okay by me. Now, Ryan, I want to go to you here because there are a lot of big storylines that we're going to be watching throughout this draft. See where players go. But if you had to pick one storyline that you're really focusing on honing in on for this draft, what stands out to you for tonight? Oh gosh, again, put me on the spot. No, I mean, the biggest storyline in football or fantasy, it starts with the San Francisco 49ers. I mean, you're looking at that team that has a ton of weapons and talent around them. And like thinking about Mac Jones going there is just disgusting for fantasy purposes, like that does not make me excited about Brandon Ayuk, who was an awesome rookie rod receiver last year coming onto the scene, does not make me excited about George Kittle. And I just can't, I just can't believe, I just refuse to believe that that is the pick that they traded up for. And it changes the whole state of everything, right? What they do with their number three pick that they traded up for to get. So it's kind of, I guess, in the DFS community, we call that chalk. Like, I guess that's kind of a chalk answer. But it really is what it comes down to is what the 49ers do at number three. Well, that is my big thing I want to see tonight too. I want to see where the quarterbacks go because when you look at quarterbacks who succeed and quarterbacks who fail, it's often like it has nothing to do with their talent. A lot of times it's based on the circumstances they enter. Like I have no idea if David Carr ever would have a good quarterback because the circumstances around him were so terrible back in the day. It does matter a lot. And whatever quarterback goes to San Francisco is probably going to succeed because I have my offensive line rankings are very rudimentary and they're not finished yet. But I want to have something to talk about here. And San Francisco number one right now, an offensive line based on the rankings that I have here. Again, rudimentary, they'll update as things go along, but they're the number one offensive line. George Kittle, Debo Samuel, Brandon Iuk, that's a good supporting cast to have. So they'll be the number three overall pick with good surroundings. No matter who goes there, you boost your view with them because they have a good situation. But there are also other good situations in this draft, like maybe the Denver Broncos take a quarterback. Maybe they don't because they're trading for Aaron Rogers after June 1st. I don't really know the way things will work, but landing spot matters so much for quarterback. That's what I want to see tonight, where these quarterbacks wind up, because not just for like, you know, betting, you know, trying to decide who will be good there, but also for like Dynasty, if Justin Fields goes third overall, which probably won't happen. But if he goes third to the 49ers, I think he's the 1.01 in Superflex Dynasty League. So there are a lot of things that will change here based on where these quarterbacks go for tonight. It looks like they are getting the draft underway. No pick as of yet, but Joe Thomas on the screen, we can all appreciate that for sure. JJ, what are you keeping your eye on for this draft here tonight? Yeah, you know, I think that, you know, we've, we're in this era where, you know, the running backs don't matter era. And there's, you know, a lot of evidence and I've written content around it and done studies on it of running backs really not mattering much in real football, as they do in fantasy football or as much as they do. But I am interested in this particular class and the situation right now across the league, because there are a lot of teams that don't have true bell cow backs across the league. And then on top of that, you have a running back draft class that's really thin. You really have three, you know, true bell cows coming out that we can feel fairly confident in with Najee Harris, Travis Etienne and Givante Williams. And so what I think could end up happening is we're going to see teams potentially reach a little bit for that position in fear that they're not going to get one of the big, one of the big three, you know, even though, you know, whether that's smart, whether that's not smart, that's not what I'm debating here. I just think that people see a supply and demand issue. And look, those three running backs are good running backs. They would be right there in the conversation with some of the top guys last year, like a DeAndre Swift or, you know, cam makers, etc. But at the same time, you know, do you, should you be spending a premium pick on them? I don't know. But I do think that, you know, there are teams tonight that we're going to see potentially take one, you know, we'll be talking about them while they're on the clock that they could hypothetically take one. I think there's one in particular that likely will. But I think a lot of it is probably driven by the supply and demand issue of this running back draft class. Yeah. And that is an issue because that could inspire teams to take that running back early knowing that the falloff occurs after that third player potentially Givante Williams or others. So that could be a motivator there. Jaguars are on the clock. But Brandon, I want to get quickly. What's the thing you're watching for tonight? The big takeaway for you? The big thing you're monitoring for this draft? I think pretty much everyone touched on it to some degree. But it's really because I'm coming at this mostly from like a betting and daily fantasy angle, not even a dynasty angle or anything like that. It's basically where the quarterbacks go, which teams get quarterbacks, what the fit is. Because again, that you can probably do a pretty good job of projecting team efficiency based on who your quarterback is and just team expectations, things like that. I'm not saying that's the only thing that you would consider, but we'll learn a lot. But realistically, it's kind of does a quarterback fall to a team that's in a better spot or has a lot of weapons like Denver? I know there's a lot of rumors about Denver and quarterbacks right now. But if New England trades up, I think that's going to tell us a lot. So realistically, it was just mostly trying to figure out where these quarterbacks go, what the fit is, because that's going to have a lot of impact each and every week for daily fantasy purposes, but also trying to project out team-wide efficiency for some wind simulations. All right. So we have eight minutes left before the Jaguars are done on the clock. So I do want to get our first round bets in based on the ads of Fandall Sportsbook. These were as of 7 o'clock tonight. I believe things are closed now. I mean, fresh here because I think they're closed during the draft. I guess they're still open right now, at least for some of them. So Brandon, you had one bet to make based on the odds of Fandall Sportsbook. What was the favorite prop to you? Trevor Lawrence, number one overall. Why do we let you be here? I went with the Eagles to take their first position that they draft to be a wide receiver. That's plus 155 on Fandall Sportsbook. I think it makes a lot of sense for just a lot of reasons, the picking 12. It's firmly in the range where one of the big three being Jamar Chase, DeMonte Smith, and Jalen Waddle probably not Chase. I'm aware of that, but one of the big three could be there, depending on how things go. I've seen that pretty frequently in the mocks, but Philadelphia was 27th in reception at expected points generated by their receivers last year, 24th in the percentage of expected points coming from the receiver. So just kind of low all over. And I've heard this like a thousand times already, but they passed on Justin Jefferson last year. If anyone didn't know, the Philly fans are, they won a receiver. So I think that just makes a lot of sense. We're getting some pretty solid odds without it being completely off the radar. Yeah. I think that one makes a lot of sense for sure. Picking 12. So we'll see if the Giants decide to take that pick off the board at the NFC East rivals there, but I think that one does make sense too. See what Jalen Hurts has and you can't do that with the supporting casts they have right now. What about you, Ryan? What's your favorite bet based on the odds of Daniel Sportsbook? Yeah. Well, if I'm going to start with the San Francisco team and what they're dictating everything, let's just go with the exacto, right? Shout out to the Kentucky Derby that's coming up. Four in a row going on. So yeah, I saw that to get the exact four picks to start it off, Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance and Kyle Pitts plus 230. I just said, why not? I think Trey Lance just fits that system and scheme of what the 49ers want to do and can do with the weapons there. And he's just so dynamic. And I have to believe that they want some type of mobile quarterback to fit in that system there in San Fran. And then Kyle Pitts to Atlanta, that's all the talk that it's been. They're going to keep that pick and take them. So that seemed like a surefire one if I could get number three, right? Yeah. If we look at the mock drafts from Daniel Jeremiah, Mel Kuiper Jr. and Todd McShea, two out of the three, have you winning that exacto? So if you get plus 230 odds in that, sounds pretty good to me. JJ, what is your bet for this first round of the draft? Yeah, you know, I was going to go with over four and a half wide receivers taken, but the juice changed on that one a little bit. And so, you know, because, you know, you have Waddle, Devontae, Smith, Jamar, Chase, they're locks. And then I think that you could look at, you know, Rashad Bateman, Elijah Moore, Kaderious Tony, even like Rondale Moore could hypothetically slip. I don't think Tarris Marshall is going to be in the first round anymore because of his medicals. But regardless, I was going to go in that direction, but the juice isn't big enough. I'm going to go with what I was just talking about the running back position. And I'm going to pick Pittsburgh to take a running back at plus 125. You know, if you look at what's ahead of the Steelers in this draft, because I do think Najee Harris, you know, ends up being that pick. And I think he's going to be the first running back off the board. You know, a lot of people, you know, if you look ahead of them, you know, you look at like Miami, Miami is probably the one team that, which by the way, if you guys recall last last year on this live stream, I became, I became a Miami Dolphins fan last year on the show. So, but the Steelers, my hometown team, if you will, I don't really, I'm not as much of a fan as I used to be because I can't, but the Steelers, you know, if you look at Pittsburgh media and you listen to Pittsburgh media, everyone's talking about them getting Najee. If you listen to Kevin Colbert, their GM, he basically said this past week that he doesn't care much about positional value. It's more so that, you know, he, if you're a good football player, you're a good football player, which to me is a bunch of BS. But I mean, that's, that's the way that they're thinking, you know, the way, the way that they go about their, I was why I was listening to this, the way they go about their board is that they don't pay attention to mock drafts. They don't pay attention to what's going on around them or anything. They literally are just ranking players. And so, you know, if you're going to throw away a positional value in that, that layer, you know, with your, with your player evaluation, and you're just going with the best players, Najee Harris is a really good prospect as a running back. And if you're not going to pay attention to the positional value aspect of things, then it's very easy to see a team like Pittsburgh, who has Benny Snell basically leading the depth chart right now, taking Najee Harris in the first round, despite the fact that they have probably the worst, if not one of the worst offensive lines in the league. So I do think Pittsburgh ends up going running back and to get back to the Miami thing, you know, there, Miami's a very analytically driven front office now and analytically driven front offices don't usually go in that running back direction. I do think they're going to add a running back at some point in this draft, but I would be even though they have a couple of first round picks, I would still be somewhat surprised if they get a running back at what 18 overall. Yeah. So JD, you were talking about how the Dolphins became our team last year. And that was partially because they picked, they made smart picks. I think the smart pick for them is my bet for this year's draft, that they will take an offensive lineman first at plus 340. That's a prime position to potentially get Panay Suwel. We saw Jamar Chase wearing the Cincinnati Bengals, you know, shoes on the red carpet, potentially he's going to Cincinnati. And if he does, that would likely leave Suwel as being the top guy left on the board from Miami. They took three offensive linemen last year, but that offensive linemen still not fixed. They've already said they're moving Robert Hunt to right guard. They have Austin Jackson to left tackle, but there is an opening at right tackle. We just saw them trade Eric Flowers as well. They've got needs on the offensive line. We talk a lot about getting skill position guys for Tuoh, but like Mike Kosicki, Will Fuller, Devonte Parker, not a bad trio. If you can add Panay Suwel to that group as, you know, right tackle, left tackle, whatever it may be, that's a pretty, uh, pretty salty little pairing there. So I think the Dolphins go offensive line. That's plus 340 if annual sportsbook. Those are our bets. And we'll see how things break during this first round. The other thing too. Sorry, I was just going to say, Brandon was going to make some sort of sarcastic comment. I'm sure that's what Brandon does. But here's the other thing to that bet, Jim, that I like. Number one, you're getting pretty good juice on it. But number two, I do think that Miami traded to six with Jamar Chase and Kyle Pitts in mind. And those guys are likely, you know, what we just talked about are likely not going to be there. I mean, seems like Kyle Pitts is going to go for if Atlanta doesn't trade back. And it seems like Jamar Chase. I mean, Jamar Chase is reportedly wearing a black and orange and white shoes to the draft. So like, sounds like Jamar Chase is likely going to Cincinnati. And if they don't, you know, if those were their targets, then it makes sense that they pivot a little bit if they do stay at six and go offensive line, because, you know, maybe they're not as in love with the with the Jalen Waddle or Devonte Smith. Yeah, I think that they seem to run things efficiently. And I think the smart move here would be to go offensive line, especially when it's a guy as solid as Panaceo. Well, definitely in favor of that. In YouTube, Ryan, my dad says you beat me for best beard. So I just I'm taking loss after loss on this show. I can't take that. I can't dig myself out of this hole. Jason asked any ideas why there seems to be a lot of shade for Justin Fields relative to other quarterbacks among media perceptions of the draft. I think that for me, it's confusing. I think that if I were to look at Justin Fields profile, the one red flag you could say is that he did have a high sack rate in college. But part of that's because Ohio said a lot of COVID issues this year, they're missing for their top six offensive linemen, I think Michigan State or the Penn State game. That could be the one red flag. I don't know if that's the reason why people are talking down to Justin Fields, but it's confusing is what I'd say. All right, the pick is in for the Jacksonville Jaguars for the first pick in this draft. Let's get this thing popping. Oh, they went Trevor Lawrence. Who could have possibly anticipated this? Trevor Lawrence going first overall to the Jackson Jaguars. And, Brandon, I'm going to go to you first because I'm assuming you've had time to account for the fact that Trevor Lawrence is going to Jacksonville within your wind total projections. What do they say about the Jaguars in year one under Trevor Lawrence Durbin Mayer? All right. So they're over under on FoxBet is six and a half winds. I have them at 5.4 winds. I think there's a lot to be worried about still. And again, looking back at historically what we get from rookie quarterbacks, it's not a big hit rate of performing above the NFL average in year one. Realistically, we're looking at maybe top 20 efficiency. That's not enough to project a team. When you account for their schedule, just kind of simulating out the season thousands of times. I don't have them as a very strong team. So I don't know what you have. I feel like my gut is that you are high on what he's going to do and that he's going to revolutionize the offense. Precedent is a little bit more temper than those expectations. You said 5.4. I have 5.3. So we are 0.1 winds off in our projections for the Jaguars. It's for the same reasons like that offensive line is not hideous. They have usable players at each position. It's not a standout offensive line. I don't think they're past catching you. Even with Marvin Jones being there, I don't think it's like a standout type thing. So I am skeptical that they have a lot of success in year one. And that's not because of Lawrence, like you said. I mean, his statistical profile is amazing. He is young. He's efficient. He's experienced. That's the big three for a first round quarterback. He checks every box there. He's athletic. I think that there are a lot of the reasons to like him. But this Jaguars team has a lot of work to do. So I think, I don't know if I'm betting the under and six and a half, but I'm not betting the over. That's the way I'm doing that right now. But JJ, I know you have your projections cooked up for this year. And I believe you had Lawrence already in there. What do they say about Trevor Lawrence's fantasy outlook for year one? Yes, I'll be doing projections while these skill position players are drafted. So I won't have them this quickly probably throughout the night. But I already had Trevor Lawrence in there because we knew that he was going to go first overall. Now, keep in mind, the one thing that's kind of obnoxious while building projections this year is that there's a 17 game schedule. Whereas, historically, we've projected for 16 games. So some of these numbers sound a lot more insane than they actually are. So I'll give you a points per game at the end. But right now I have Trevor Lawrence for 43, 56 passing yards, 27 touchdowns, 27.2 touchdowns, 264 rushing yards, 1.4 rushing touchdowns, 14.4 interceptions. And that again, just to give you a little more context of what that all means, that's 17 fantasy points per game, which is not bad. It brings him to QB 15 right now in my projections. So I do think because the rushing element that he can bring and a lot of the quarterback rushing touchdown projections are going to be conservative just the way that I build projections generally. So they're going to be, I mean, you could easily see Trevor Lawrence with three or four or five touchdowns this year. It wouldn't be shocking at all. And so I think that he's actually not a terrible late round quarterback target because he does bring that rushing element a la and Andrew Luck and what Andrew Luck was able to do. And projection wise, he still comes out as QB 15. So I'm actually fairly high on him this year. QB 15 may sound pessimistic, but when you're not like a heavy rushing quarterback, you're a rookie, that's actually, that's, I was not shocked, but I was surprised at how high he was in those projections. Yeah, absolutely. All right. So we have three minutes and 30 seconds left for the jets with the second overall picks. So Ryan, I do want to go to you. We have Trevor Lawrence now in Jacksonville, DJ Chark is there. We've got Marvin Jones, James Robinson, tentatively the number one running back. How do you feel about this team from a DFS perspective now that they have Trevor Lawrence as their quarterback? Yeah. So the nice thing about DFS is that the wind models don't matter. Like the worst the team is the better it is for DFS when they have a competent quarterback. And you're looking at Jacksonville and like, yeah, they got weapons. They just, you know, got LaVisca Chanel last year, who I think is actually going to be good in this offense with Trevor Lawrence because a lot is made. I'm looking at watching NFL Network, their stream here and a lot's been made of his deep past and his deep balls because those have been great throughout his career, but he actually had like a nine adot in targets, like very shallow. So that's right up LaVisca's wheelhouse. I think Urban Meyer is going to try and garner touches to get him. And he should be good. He's going like real late in best ball. So I was actually looking to see where exactly that was. I had it up because he's going to be a target for me, but I definitely think, yeah, this offense is going to be one to target. I think Trevor Lawrence will definitely help keep them in games, keep them competitive. And that's definitely what you like to see from the wide receiver standpoint. Now, not sure with James Robinson what that's going to mean for him, so to speak, but yet to be seen. And that could be wills up for him, too, if they don't go out and get him somebody to compete with. Yeah. The good thing for him is if they can be more efficient, they'll generate more touchdowns. And I think that that's a positive for all running backs. The fun thing too with LaVisca is that Urban Meyer is the guy who coached Percy Harvin in college. He post he coached Curtis Samuel in college. He can have some fun with guys who have a unique skill set. So if we're going to get anyone to get LaVisca to take off, I think Urban Meyer might be that guy. All right. The pick is in for the New York Jets, and it seems likely this will wind up being Zach Wilson. I mean, like the props on this one were just absurd across board. I think it was minus 5,000 or so to close. All three of the Daniel Jeremiah, Mel Kuiper, Jr. and Todd McShea, final Mock Drass, did have Zach Wilson going to the New York Jets. My personal win total projection number does already have Wilson in there under the assumption he would be the pick. They're at 5.7 wins. Now, they have Corey Davis there. That helped quite a bit. Also, Carl Lawson helped them out. It's not the best situation yet. It's not the worst. They're kind of similar to Jacksonville because the offensive line, I know it gets ragged on a lot, but right now they're projected to have continuity along the offensive line. That matters quite a bit. They don't have any glaring holes along the offensive line. They could definitely improve it with the 23rd pick, and I'd love them to do that, but no massive holes there as of right now. Roger Goodell walking over the podium to announce the second overall pick. While he does that, make sure you get yourself entered into the drawing for the NFL jersey of your choice. That is the King Asumo link in the YouTube description. Goodell announcing the pick right now, and it is indeed Zach Wilson going second overall to the New York Jets. Like I said, 5.7 wins my projection for the Jets this year. It's not very high, but again, a lot of issues to work out there for sure. Ryan, I actually want to stick with you because I think this team, I lost a lot of money on them in DFS this year trying to chase the Denzel Mims empty targets didn't go so hot, but now they got Zach Wilson, Corey Davis is there. Do you have a height of opinion of Zach Wilson to think that Corey Davis and Denzel Mims can be DFS relevant right away? Or are you going to be approaching this offense conservatively? I'll definitely approach conservatively, but you have to look at the situation last year with the quarterbacks that Sam Darno did not play a full 16. They were bringing in Joe Flacco who just looked dead. I mean, couldn't move the ball at all. So even with that Denzel Mims was showing some flashes. I had him in a couple like dynasty leagues. I ended up trading him in one and regretting that immediately after I did so because I do think he's an all-world talent. But you're looking at a guy like Corey Davis coming in too who was the wide receiver 30 in PPR last year. I mean, really took on a resurgence there and Tana Hill is not like the all-world passer that we know, very conservative, very just efficient with his passes. So if those guys can be explosive for him and a guy like Jameson Crowder too, you're thinking about who, when Sam Darno was a rookie, Sam Darno leaned on him as well too. So, and they don't have any running back situation to really go home to at this point in time right now. My Michael P. or I in dynasty shares would like for that to be incorrect. I should say share because shares would be very, very conservative for multiple reasons. That's very scary. No, so you're thinking about that situation there bringing in guys like Tevin Coleman, I believe, and then only having Ty Johnson. So they really could be in a situation where they're passing a lot too with that division getting a lot better, see what the Patriots do. So definitely like getting some shares of the wide receivers in this offense with that pick. We got the Zach Wilson Jersey swap on the screen, looking good, looking swaggy, looking very young. Yeah, looking like my son. Like we talk about like skincare routines. I feel like he needs to like go the opposite way, like have worse skin care regimen. So he looks like he's older than 12. We'll work on that, Zach. Working in New York, we'll probably do that all for him. Brandon, I want to go to you quick. What is your wind tunnel projection say for the jets this year? So FoxBed has them at six and a half. They came out 6.3 for me hitting the over and 57% of the simulation. So not really anything amazing, but it's a fair number. Again, it like JJ mentioned with the 17 game season for fantasy projections, you got to think like in eight win seasons, not like an eight and a half win season. So it's a little bit different, especially for these teams kind of on the lower end where that's a big jump in a win to get seven wins compared to six. So not really anything that I would chase, but definitely not the worst line. Yeah, for sure. JJ, Corey Davis is there. We got Denzel Minz there as well. Can you feel okay about them in this new offense under Zach Wilson? I mean, I think longer term you're going to feel better. I still have some fear about year one that I'm going to have that same fear with basically any quarterback prospect that's not Trevor Lawrence. So I play it more conservatively. My projection for Zach Wilson right now is like 37, 31 yards, 24 passing touchdowns, 170 rushing yards. He doesn't have the rushing ability quite like a Trevor Lawrence does. One rushing touchdown, 14.6 interceptions is QB 29 right now. And that's really, I mean, that's just how projections work out with this much ambiguity and a rookie quarterback who doesn't necessarily have the mobile ability that we're going to see from a Justin Fields or a Trey Lance. It's just hard to really buy into him right now in year one in redraft as a dude that you want to target in fantasy football. Best ball, maybe you want to get him as like a QB three if you go with the three quarterback build. But yeah, he's not someone I'm really looking for here in year one. I like him in dynasty, though. Jim, you did great work on obviously your quarterback stuff and all the stuff that you look at points to him being a pretty good prospect. So I'm into him longer term and I think that he has a great ceiling with his arm. But I do think there's going to be some growing pains in year one, especially with a lot of just moving parts in that Jets offense. Yeah. So what you're referencing is I look at quarterbacks based on the analytics behind them, the numbers behind them. And what you want to look for is like we said with Trevor Lawrence, young, experienced and efficient and Zach Wilson, not experienced 27 games with 10 plus pass attempts in college, but would have gotten there if not for injuries during his sophomore year. I think we can say, you know, reasonably experienced two and a half years as a starting quarterback at a decent college. And we talk about the schedule a lot. It was it was very easy. It was it was an easy schedule. However, quarterbacks of the easy schedules who go in the first round are just as likely to succeed as guys with tough schedules based on what's happened in the past. And also when he did play tougher competition, he measured up well. He had a 10.8 adjust yards per 10th and they faced top 50 defenses by SP plus. So he played well. That's the actually as of now the seventh best mark of all drafted quarterbacks since 2010. But he might be moved down because the 49ers are on the clock now with pick number three. All right. I'm going to ask you all who you got final moment of truth here going third overall at the 49ers. Ryan, are you sticking with Tre Lantz? Yeah, I'm going to stick with Tre Lantz. I was going to ask if I could take the field against Matt Jones because I would love that. But stick with stick with Lance. All right. Ryan's got Tre Lantz JJ gut call. Who is it at pick three? I'm going to go with Tre Lantz as well. I just I have a really hard time thinking a team gave up that much equity to get. Look, I think Matt Jones is fine. I think that he's going to have he can have a Kirk cousins like career, but it's hard for me to see that ceiling giving up that much for that, you know, for that kind of ceiling. And Tre Lantz has the ceiling. There's no doubt about that. So I'm going to go with Tre Lantz. Brandon, who you got third pick? Tre Lantz. I think it's just everything's pointing to it. The line movement. I agree with what JJ said and what Ryan said. I think it's it's just inevitable. Yeah. The third overall pick. It was plus 370 at the time at the time we recorded covering the spread our betting podcast yesterday. It was like plus 200 this morning and was minus 130 when I was looking or minus 160 this afternoon. So it moved a lot in favor of Tre Lantz. If it's not Lance, we'll be able to play back what I just said and make me look like an idiot. That's going to happen all night long, baby. We're going to look very dumb throughout the entire night. We're going to also see if Ryan's trifecta stays alive here with the first year two for two so far. I'm sure there's a lot of suspense between those two. We'll see if you can stay alive here. And I'm anxious. Are you guys like nervous right now? I'm nervous about this. Like this is like this is like I'm about to like give a speech or something nervous. I just I need to I need to chill for a sec. Yeah. I mean like Tre Lantz. I think the way the way to analyze him is that it's like a cone. It's a range of outcomes. And if we're talking like Mac Jones, the range of outcomes is here. Tre Lantz, yeah, it's off the screen. Whoops. Tre Lantz, the range of outcomes is here. But that means you get this into the range of outcomes. The top end is really good. And who's drafting for floor like that at the quarterback position? You should never draft for floor because no quarterback has a good floor. Yeah, right. Exactly. It just doesn't exist. All right. Here we go, boys. All right. Pick is it for the 49ers at the third overall pick. I bet Ryan's happy. That's what I'm going to say. I bet Ryan's happy. This is this is my thought. It is Tre Lantz. Tre Lantz goes third overall. So Ryan, three for three. How you feeling based on those first three picks? Listen, now this is what will happen. And you know, my fiance always jokes with me because I get Matt Ryan a hard time. She's like, why do you play him in DFS? You hate him. But so now the Atlanta will come up and they have a new regime. So they'll do something to mess it up. But no, speaking of Tre Lantz love this. I mean, this is this is just what it should should be. He's he just fits the profile. He fits what Shanahan and Co want to do there in San Fran. This makes a ton of sense. Mobile quarterback, you're looking at the numbers that he had. It's awesome. I saw that there were some comparisons that he's taste some hill with an arm. It's just going to be awesome. It's going to be awesome to see this offense kind of explode with a quarterback of his caliber. And this is absolutely wills up for this entire offense. I mean, George Kittle, Debo, Ayuk, you get you love to see it. So I'm very excited that this is the pick. And I just can't wait to have a conversation when this is all said and done about what it means to have, you know, three weeks going into the pick, everybody saying that it's going to be Mac Jones and people being sure and so much fodder on Twitter that it is the pick. And then we get to the the night and, you know, they were playing us. Yeah. I think it's hilarious personally. Like I feel bad for people who like because the people who were talking about it are reliable people. Daniel Jeremiah, Adam Schefter, Adam Schefter is the best in the business. Like so much respect for what he does. And I mean, it's very possible it just changed and people, you know, made their their bets based on relying on those guys. I've done the same thing. I believe in Adam Schefter wholeheartedly and it didn't work out. So a tough outcome there. I think the thing with Trey Lance that I love is the top comp you hear about Trey Lance all the time is Josh Allen because there are accuracy issues, but he's a big arm guy and he's athletic. That was the same thing as Josh Allen. The thing you love about Trey Lance though is even though he has those those traits that Josh Allen had, he was actually good in college and Josh Allen wasn't. So that's a fun differentiator obviously is at the FCS level, but a lot of that production came in the postseason. He was used to playing good teams North Dakota State. They're not just I mean, they're they're the best team, but like the same thing as Alabama. So I think that Trey Lance a wide range of outcomes, but high ceiling. And that's what JJ said wholeheartedly agree with that. Excited to see what he does in San Francisco. But now JJ how we rank in Trey Lance in Superflex Dynasty because he goes to San Francisco. However, there is a very real possibility he doesn't start in year one. So how we feeling Superflex Dynasty drafts with Trey Lance? Yeah. So speaking of which, you know, that ambiguity with us not knowing if he's going to play year one or not, I don't know how you really build that honestly into a projection at this point because Jimmy Garoppolo is still there. So what I did was I basically split it out. I did give Trey Lance a little bit of an edge just because we almost always see these quarterbacks who are drafted in the first round, see the field a lot sooner and more often and more frequently than we expect. So Trey Lance right now is getting I think I think I had him at 52% of the team attempts, maybe a little bit more too. So it's cute. His line right now is like 2,300 yards, 14 passing touchdowns, nine interceptions, a QB 30 rank. So he's like, you know, if he were to play a full, if we knew that he was going to play from the start, full 17 game schedule, he would be almost a more attractive late round quarterback option than Trevor Lawrence would be just because of that rushing ability and what he was able to do in college. Now to your question, Jim, about Dynasty, I think given this landing spot and given the fact that he's got Kyle Shanahan, and you would think that Kyle Shanahan is going to be around for a decent bit, the weapons there are great. The other thing too is that they're going to be able to craft an offense and morph an offense around him where they're not going to have to ask him to do that much because the entire San Francisco offense is predicated on yards after the catch. I mean, you have Debo Samuel, Brandon Iuk, George Kittle, three guys who are incredible at that. And then obviously they have a great running scheme to open up lanes there. And then I mean, now they have one of the most mobile quarterbacks in football. So it's not going to even be fair. So I think in Dynasty right now, you know, we don't know where Justin Fields is going to land and he's the other quarterback that's left that has that true upside. I don't think you can put Zach Wilson ahead of Trey Lance from a Dynasty standpoint, from a fantasy standpoint, because of what Trey Lance does with his legs. So I think Lance is the 102 right now. I think that that Trevor Lawrence is clear, the clear cut 101 in super flex leagues. Trey Lance is the 102. What will be interesting is if Justin Fields goes in the top 10, and if he goes to Denver, then I think all of a sudden you have a clear second tier of quarterbacks where you could go either direction. You know, if you need to win now, maybe Justin Fields sees the field first. But if you need to, if you can wait a little bit or if you're rebuilding, then Trey Lance is a little bit more attractive. But I mean, I think, you know, depending on where Justin Fields goes, I think Trey Lance is at least in the top three in the super flex rookie draft conversation. So Brandon, I am not altering my projections for San Francisco this year, because I still feel like Garoppolo is most likely starter. Are you in the same boat there? Yeah, that's that's pretty much the way that I'm trying to play it. It's kind of just the assumption. And for me, I mean, Foxbat has them 10 and a half win team. There is minus 167 odds on the under for me. They came out at 10.6 wins. So, you know, right online with their over under, but they rated they rated with a top eight schedule in terms of ease. That's kind of one of the one of the few things that I'm trying to look at. Because again, you know, we have a similar process, but you know, my 10 points, you know, so I'm right there with you. You can look at a team and say, oh, this is this is like a 10 win team. But it's like, what's their schedule look like? Don't base it off of last year's win loss records, obviously. It's just like, how does this team match up week after week with their expected opponents, things like that. So, you know, over thousands of simulations, hopefully, I get in the right ballpark. Yeah, I'm at 10.0. So we're in the same same spot there. I feel really good about that team. They're they're good. Okay, so the pick is in for Atlanta. The semi closing odds, these were as of like this afternoon when I was pulling stuff, because I had stuff to do later on. Kyle Pitts to go fourth overall was minus 210. Justin Fields was plus 430. And Mac Jones was was 22 to one. So I mean, I don't think they're going to go Mac Jones, but Kyle Pitts minus 210. And importantly, if this is Kyle Pitts, that means Ryan hits is as that is exact. Easy for me to say already and go plus 230. That's not too bad. All right, Roger Goodell slowly making his way towards the podium to announce the pick here for the Falcons. The other options, it seemed like we're a trade down or go the quarterback. And obviously, they have not gone the trade down route. They are sticking to pick number four. Justin Fields over under was seven and a half. Mac Jones is over is already hit it plus or minus 198. So that one's already in the book. Does not matter for this pick, but Atlanta is going to go with Kyle Pitts fourth overall. So Ryan winner winner chicken dinner. At least the first winner tonight. You got it. Kyle Pitts here at the fourth pick. Yeah, no, love that. Sorry, I was doing multiple things at once. That's great. Love Kyle Pitts here. This is going to be awesome for Atlanta and for people that can trust Matt Ryan that aren't myself because I think that this is just going to skyrocket his value. I guess we'll see what happens with Julio Jones. I know there were trade rumors happening last week that they were going to move on from him. That's kind of tough for me to believe, but a new regime there in Atlanta that's taken over. So that that's possible, but you definitely have to love what he's going to be able to do here in this offense with with Calvin Ridley as well to not really doing a running game as well. I mean, we're looking at the options here for these first couple of teams and not having a running game. It just is speaking volume. So you're looking at Mike Davis being the lead back there. That's not going to scare you at all. He's definitely and if Julio Jones leaves, I mean, we could be looking at a rookie tied in seeing triple digit targets. That's that's just kind of the talent that he is. And so it's going to be really interesting as JJ, you were talking about what people are doing in super flex, you know, with Trey Lantz going to San Francisco, like, what are people going to do in super flex with Kyle Pitts being here in this situation? Because I've seen people talking about taking him at the one oh one, you know, overall, not in super flex necessarily, but outside of that. And I think people will start to have to question that at a position that's tied in, that's thin, but you've got to love Matt Ryan here in best ball. Definitely in DFS, they're going to be attacking the field. They were like in one point games, I believe the most one point games or one possession games might have go back through my notes last year. So that's definitely something to look at too, when you're thinking about targeting this team for DFS and such. JJ, Ryan, some of the projections for Kyle Pitts in year one. What are you seeing with Kyle Pitts with the Atlanta Falcons offense? So people are going to think this is like a hot take that I'm that I'm reading this and that I'm just I'm just falling into the hype with Kyle Pitts, but that's really not the case. If you look across the Atlanta Falcons offensive roster right now, it's really just Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley that are going to absolutely gobble up some, some target share in that offense. Now you have Kyle Pitts and what I think is going to happen with the with the new offense there, Arthur Smith there. You're going to see a lot of 12 personnel, a lot of two tight end sets. We saw that with Anthony Firkser and John O's Smith in Tennessee last season. I think we're going to see that a lot this season. And what that means is that the person who gets probably hit the most, aside from Hayden Hurst, I mean, he's going to get hit in some way, but Russell Gage is probably going to get pretty destroyed from a projection standpoint as a result of this move. Now even still Russell Gage in my, in my projection still has like a 10 and a half percent target share. So he's still going to be involved in some way. Kyle Pitts, I have it a 16 and a half percent target share, which is pretty high for a rookie tight end, but we've never seen a rookie tight end really like this before. So with that being said, when it's all said and done, you know, you have Atlanta a team that's likely going to have to pass a good bit because their defense is atrocious. They don't have a high wind total. So the, the past rush ratio, you know, looks high for Atlanta, even if they want to be run, you know, even if they were to land one of the stud running Max's class and they want to be run heavy, they're not going to be able to. So all of that combined guys, Kyle Pitts, you know, Ryan mentioned the, uh, the fact that he might hit triple digit targets. I think he will hit triple digit targets. I think, I think we're looking at a tight end prospect, a rookie tight end who is going to hit a hundred targets. That's also with the 17 game season to be fair, but who is going to hit a hundred targets this year. If he stays healthy, I haven't for, and I won't read the decimals because that's obnoxious, but I haven't met 67 receptions, 771 yards and six points that I'll do for touchdowns, 6.7 touchdowns, which puts them at tight end six in, in, in 2021 projections, which, you know, look, you can, you can look across the tight end landscape and realize that this makes more sense than it probably sounds. Uh, looking at a rookie tight end, you know, tight ends don't do much as rookies, uh, but the tight end landscape sucks. Uh, there's not many good tight ends at all. And I think, you know, there's going to be a lot of hype surrounding him ADP wise and cost wise when you're drafting your fantasy teams this year. But I think it's warranted because that projection still has room for growth. There's still room for growth within that projection. So he's tight end six right now in my projections. I think he should be drafted as such. And I can understand if people see a higher ceiling than that. Yeah. Tight end six. Like I know that, like we joke about how thin tight end is, but that's still a very strong projection for him in year number one. Okay. So Brandon, I want you to give me a sanity check here because I put a Kyle Pitts in Atlanta in my wind projection model and I got a number that was kind of high and kind of scared me. So eight and a half. Is that egregious or are you kind of in line with that? No. So my simulations like Atlanta, they're over under seven and a half on Fox bet. Uh, the under the unders minus 125, the over being minus 105. So easy. Let's go. Yeah. Uh, my Sims have them as, uh, like an 8.6 win team. Uh, so I'm with you. Like they were actually one of the higher teams, uh, because, you know, and I would hope this is the case, but a lot of my simulations are close to the bookmakers. If they're, if they're completely different, that's probably an issue. But they were one of the highest teams, uh, in terms of the over. So I kind of like Atlanta, uh, for, for the over bet, uh, this year. Yeah, eight, seven and a half is that's a good number. Uh, so if I've got eight and a half, a full win. I have, and I have them with the bottom, like a top three schedule in terms of fees. That helps too. We'll take it. Uh, I think that having New Orleans be lessened potentially, that helps a decent amount. Carolina, a lot of question. I don't have a super optimistic projection for Sam Darnall there. So, uh, I think that's playing a role in this as well. Um, okay. So Brian asked over on YouTube, how much does Mac not going there, swing the draft all the top picks go one spot higher assuming Mac falls. Is there a fight for fields now? Yummy. I think the big question is where does Mac Jones fall to you? And I have no idea because Carolina has a quarterback in place. Denver has a quarterback could use, you know, do they view Mac Jones being an upgrade over the tandem of drew lock and Teddy Bridgewater? I don't know. Personally, I think the adjustment fields would be, but Mac Jones different discussion. So we will see where Mac Jones winds up falling. But now, uh, this pick is going to swing a lot of things because I have the dolphins taking an offensive lineman and plus 340. If Penae Suel goes to the, to the Bengals, it's a very bad bet. But Jamar Chase, as of this morning, his total was five and a half. Uh, the under was minus 178. He was also minus 1500 to be the first wide receiver taken. Penae Suel was, uh, his over under was six and a half. And the under was a plus 100. I thought that was a pretty interesting one. So it had gotten me both Cincinnati and Miami, but just wound up going with the, uh, the other route with that and going with the dolphins there, uh, the Bengals at pick number five, it says the pick is in. We'll see how this goes. Personally, if I were making this pick for the Bengals, I would go with what we discussed before where got to protect your quarterback. Uh, we have, I mean, they have decent guys in, in Tyler Boy and T Higgins. Like that's not a bad set of wide receivers. So I personally would go offensive line, but we'll see where they wind up going here. Ryan, we know Joe Burrow, we back a quarterback for the Bengals this year. What's the outlook as of now before we know what this pick is for you and them in DFS because that Taylor loves to throw. That's a great thing for us in DFS. How are you feeling about T Higgins heading into year two and Joe Burrow in year two? Yeah, this would, this would definitely kill my soul because I love T Higgins. So I wanted him to get all the targets. I have already like, I think of six best ball teams. I have them on four currently right now. Um, but I mean, regardless it looks, listen, Joe Burrow, when he was healthy, um, and I guess that goes along with this, but when Joe Burrow was healthy, he was able to keep these guys afloat. Tyler Boyd and T Higgins both, um, just with his ability. I mean, they were, they were past heavy offense. I think that he was a top 10, uh, fantasy quarterback from weeks two through nine going into their buys. So you love to see that. Um, and I think both Tyler Boyd and Higgins were in the top 14 in PPR. So Chase definitely changes things, would love to see Penet there. Um, just because like you said, it's Jamar Chase. It's Jamar Chase. Okay. So that, I mean, Chase is going to be awesome in this offense. I mean, you're hoping that he stays healthy. He's coming off of a, uh, Joe Burrow that is coming off of that gruesome knee injury, tearing the ACL and the MCL and, and they got it. They got to do something to get hit, to get him protected because if he's not protected, you're talking about him starting the 2021 season, it wasn't even a foregone conclusion. He was going to start the 2021 season, um, when the injury happened. So, you know, maybe they're thinking that you add weapons and it could be explosive and maybe he won't get sacked because he'll be getting the ball out. So these explosive guys, um, it definitely affects T Higgins and Tyler Boyd, both, um, in the sense because Chase is reuniting with his guy from college. You got to think he's going to be asking for the ball. Um, I can't wait to see the Odell Beckham outburst from Jamar Chase when he's not getting the ball, but this will be great. This will be great for him in that offense. If Joe Burrow can stay healthy for sure. Yep. Absolutely. So JJ, I believe you had Jamar Chase as your first overall ranking pre-draft, correct? Among wide receivers? I did. Yeah. I think that he's, he's in the top tier with, uh, Najee Harris and Travis Etn from a prospect standpoint. I think he's in his own tier. If you just only look at wide receivers, he has an incredible breakout age, you know, at LSU, he outperformed Justin Jefferson. Uh, when, when he was a sophomore, Justin Jefferson was a junior and then Justin Jefferson comes the NFL and breaks the rookie receiving record. See the guy who played better in college who had, who was a year younger, uh, you know, uh, uh, age wise than Justin Jefferson. Um, and he outperformed him and Jefferson obviously did what he did this past year. So I did get a projection done then for, for Jamar Chase as well. Um, and look, T Higgins, I think will be fine. Um, I, what, the way that I generally view teammate competition and what I've noticed through years of doing projections and just analyzing this stuff is that it limits a player's ceiling more than it does his floor. So a player like T Higgins is going to see a pretty strong target share regardless of his situation, right? Unless they have just like, you know, pro bowler after pro bowler after pro bowler, but that's not the case. So T Higgins and I think it's in year, since it's year one, I don't think Jamar Chase is going to out target T Higgins if they're both healthy, uh, throughout the whole season. So I have Higgins at a 22% share and Jamar Chase at a 20% share for year one. And since Cincinnati is already a pretty, uh, pass heavy team, I actually didn't change the projected passing outcome for them volume wise because, uh, you know, you add a piece like Jamar Chase, you become a better team. So they might want to throw more in neutral game scripts, but overall it's probably more of a wash. So overall, if you look at Jamar Chase's line, I have him at, again, this is 17 games, not 16 games, about 76 receptions, almost a thousand yards, 996 yards, five touchdowns, positional rank, wide receiver, 36 as a rookie. Now it's not bad. You know, I think in, you know, just building out these projections and looking at their depth chart, I think this is going to end up hurting Tyler Boyd more than T Higgins, just because Tyler Boyd is someone who's been very, very, very volume dependent throughout his career, because of the position he plays, he plays in the slot. Slot guys are more dependent on that volume piece than other players are because they're not as efficient, they're not scoring as many touchdowns. And so I think Tyler Boyd also in two wide receiver sets, Tyler Boyd is not going to be on the field. So we're going to see a lot of Jamar Chase and T Higgins, you know, Cincinnati doesn't utilize their tight ends much at all, which is great for Tyler Boyd and for the other wide receivers as well. But I think overall, this is going to hurt Boyd way more than it's going to hurt T Higgins. Yeah. And given how well T Higgins played last year, I think that that's the way it should be to Jamar Chase, tremendously talented T Higgins also very good. And it'll be fun to watch the Bengals next year, hopefully they address offensive line early in the second round. Okay, the Dolphins pick is in, we'll see what they do there. We do this still a bit of time here, but Brandon, I know you're a T Higgins guy too. So any thoughts for you from a DFS perspective on the Jamar Chase selection? It's going to make it tough to stack. So I think we're probably going to have some weeks where we like Joe Burrow, but the right stack might be a little bit frustrating. Just have two lineups, one of each, then you're set. I mean, that's my philosophy. The pivot lineup, assuming that they're similar salaries. But that was the kind of one of the first things that came to my mind was like, that's great for Joe Burrow. There might be a lot of weeks where it's like naked Joe Burrow, not necessarily naked, but having a really difficult time. Well, I mean, we say that all the time. Like having a difficult time knowing who the right stack is, and that's that could be a, I'm already feeling some, some, some tilt there for like a big, big Joe Burrow week, but maybe it's like Tyler Boyd, not the type where it doesn't score touchdowns, but yeah, you know, I'm just preventing because I can see that being a bit of an issue this year. Don't use Boyd, like use the guys who actually have juice and go go with go with the fun players. Okay, so the Dolphins pick is in. Tyler Boyd is fun, Jim. He's fun. He's from Pitt. So you're going to, you know, I got to get some love. Yeah. Oh, we can, we'll have to ask outside sources here, but Dolphins pick is in main contenders, Jaylen Waddle, Devontae Smith, hopefully Penae Suwel, we'll see. I'm kind of shocked Suwel might be falling to seven here. Probably a good thing for Detroit. But if we look at the props, I think a fun one was a match that between Jaylen Waddle and Devontae Smith at close, Jaylen Waddle was minus 270 to go ahead of Devontae Smith. And as someone who, you know, when I was not in New York, I would play some college football DFS. I was a little bit surprised by that because obviously Jaylen Waddle was very good when he was healthy. But Devontae Smith was disgusting. We'll talk about Devontae Smith once he's drafted about the ills of a wide receiver who does not declare early. The size stuff is an issue for sure as well. But just watching him play football, like I had to watch a lot of Mac Jones to try to figure out why the 49ers are going to take him third overall and then didn't. Every time I watched him, I was like, wow, Devontae Smith is really freaking good. So it was shocking to see Waddle at minus 270, but maybe we'll get an answer on this right now. As Dolphins pick is in Roger Goodell, is that the podium for Miami, we'll see what they do here. See how they help to it. They're going to help to up. We'll just find out how with this pick. And it is in fact Jaylen Waddle of Alabama going to Miami. So Waddle minus 270 over Devontae Smith catches. His total was nine and a half minus 110 in the under. He was minus 130 by the go top 10. So Jaylen Waddle going to Miami. And Brandon, I want to go back to you here actually, because this is a very different Miami team than we saw last year. We talked a lot about, we talked a lot about upside at quarterback and Tua, although I have a high opinion of Tua, wasn't a high upside quarterback for DFS, but now he adds will fuller Devontae Parker is healthy. Jaylen Waddle is there too. That's a heck of a lot of speed. Can we now use Tua Tonga Vilo and DFS now that he has all these weapons? Yeah, probably, but it feels, you know, similar because stacking such a big part of daily fantasy and we got Micah Sicki in there as well. So, you know, just trying to figure out each and every week, like the right stack, I feel like again, it's kind of pre pre tilting, but it's going to help Tua, and that's going to make him more viable. But the stacking is going to be a little bit problematic. And as far as sheer upside goes, I mean, just with the profile, like what we saw from Tua, there are reasons to, you know, question like the high end weekend weekend, like week out upside. But, you know, overall, this is going to be really, really positive for Tua, which I'm excited about, because Jim made me a very big Tua fan last year. Because Tua is the best, of course. We're not going to write off Tua because of a couple of bad games. Not when he was, when I already played as well as he did at Alabama. How about you, Ryan? How are you feeling about this Dolphins offense with Jaylen Waddle being down now? Yeah, it's tough because I think the Tyree kill comparisons for Jaylen Waddle definitely hurt, or hurt, definitely helped his stock tremendously. And you're thinking about, you know, also what helped him too is he exploded to start the season in those four games. He went ballistic with, you know, 500 yards and four touchdowns. So that's the last memory that we have of him. So I think that's what gets people excited. I would have loved to see Devontae Smith go here. I think he's going to, you know, just help out a quarterback like Tua a lot more. I mean, if Tua is not able to get him that ball downfield, and you're talking about, he's got an ankle injury. Devontae Parker's got injury history. Preston Williams got injury history. So he got a lot of injury history here at the wide receiver position. But I hope he can stay healthy. Hopefully that helps stretch the field. But I am interested to see what Miami does from a running back standpoint, especially from DFS, because Miles Gaskin was being utilized in the red zone a ton. So you think about a guy like Jaylen Waddle. Yeah, yeah. No, I am too. So you think about a guy like Jaylen Waddle who could stretch the field. And if he gets them down there into the red zone, it could be, you know, awesome for Miles Gaskin work. So curious to see how that shapes out. All right. So Jaylen Waddle goes six. JJ, it's a very different team. So it is a lot of extrapolation on your part to build a projection for them. But what are you seeing for the past catchers in Miami now that we know kind of what the situation looks like? Yeah, you guys remember Preston Williams? You remember him? Oh, yes. Remember Lynn Bowden? Yeah, we can say bye-bye to them. Someone trained for Lynn Bowden in my Dynasty Leagues, please. I'm accepting all offers right now. Yeah. So, I mean, now you have a really good trio of wide receivers where, Jaylen Waddle can play in the slot. He can play on the outside and be a burner, but you also already have that burner in Will Fuller. But the trio kind of works together in a fun way, where you have Devonte Parker, Jaylen Waddle, Will Fuller. I think of those three, just because he's a rookie and that's just the way that things generally go, Waddle's going to have the lowest target share of the three. I haven't met 16.5% target share this year, which really isn't bad. But that ends up being, let's see, 55, reception, 760 yards, 4.7 touchdowns. He's wide receiver 52 right now in my projections, which is not terrible, realistically. I think that he's a better best ball asset, just given the fact that he'll probably have some unpredictable production, the fact that he's a big play waiting to happen. He's a really interesting and tough prospect for me. A lot of people will peg him to be just like Henry Rugs, what we saw last year with Rugs being the first wide receiver off the board, a speedster similar to Jaylen Waddle. The difference that Henry Rugs objectively and analytically was a worse prospect than Jaylen Waddle. A lot of people made excuses for Rugs as to why he didn't produce in college because he played with great teammates and the teammate competition was there. But like I said earlier, that matters more for floor rather than ceiling. If you look at Jaylen Waddle, his freshman season, he outproduced Henry Rugs. He outproduced Devontae Smith. Jerry Judy was the only player on that Alabama team that had more receiving yards than Jaylen Waddle did. Sophomore season doesn't play as many snaps. I think someone that had to do a seniority and had to do with the fact that you had Jerry Judy, Henry Rugs, Devontae Smith, all his juniors, and he was a sophomore. Then this past year happens where up and through those first four games before he got injured, he had more receiving production than Devontae Smith did, who won the Heisman. It's a small sample size that you then have to extrapolate. I'm not saying that Jaylen Waddle would have won the Heisman or that Devontae Smith wouldn't have won the Heisman. But there's a lot of what ifs with Waddle. A lot of film guys like him and that has to go into our evaluation. That's part of the reason why draft capital matters is because teams are looking at that stuff and teams are there's talent evaluation embedded in that draft capital. He's sixth overall. He's going to look great in my model despite the fact that my model is very production based. He didn't have the best production in the world because he was hurt during his explosion year, didn't play as much as sophomore year, and he was a freshman. You can't expect him to be Rondell Moore his freshman season. I like Waddle. I think the fit is interesting and fun, him going back and playing with Tua. I think it's a strong enough pick, but I still stand by the fact that I think Miami traded up thinking that they were going to get Jamar Chase or Kyle Fitz. I'm pretty sure they thought that the Bengals were going too well and didn't happen. But this has been such a fantasy friendly draft. Oh, yeah, yeah. No defensive players. Lions pick in seven. Could they go quarterback? Justin Fields is there. They're not super committed to Jared Goff. I need to break well reactions, Jim. Yeah. Devontae Smith is there at seven overall. They didn't trade back, which we thought was possible. Jim, what do you have for Miami's wins? There we go. Panaisoel going to Detroit. Jared Goff throwing to Tyrell Williams for Shad Perriman, but with a rockstar offensive line. I mentioned before I have my offensive line rankings rudimentary ones cooked up. Right now, if I put Panaisoel as our starter right tackle, because Taylor Decker is a left tackle, they are ranked seven, the seventh best offensive line in football. So although the passcatches are rough for sure, they can still address that later on. They're going to have a good offensive line. They have a competent quarterback and they have DeAndre Swift. So I think that's pretty enticing. Do you want to go back to Miami here quickly? Because it is an offensive line and we can linger a bit longer on Miami. Brandon mentioned my win projection. Do you want to do like a three, two, one? We spit it out at the same time or should I just tell you? We've been pretty close. I think it's going to be too hard to do a three, two, one. 9.4. I had them at 9.4 as well. Wow. This is really weird that we're alive. We are working out the same model. This is really great for our listeners. We were half a win off on San Francisco. Like, you know, that's that's all. Yeah. See? So yeah. I mean, FoxBot has them eight and a half, but they came out about 80% likely to go over. They have the 20th ranked schedule, but according to my matchups, they should like be favored with the two point home advantage. It should be favored in like 12 and 12 of their 17 games, which you can look at like average or total opponent. But for wins, you could look at like how often how frequently they're favored. And I think that's a big advantage for Miami. So going back to like the two a thing, it's going to help to us for this offense to be better. It's going to be very relevant for betting. Maybe a little bit less relevant for DFS. It's still going to be difficult with that DFS stacking. But again, again, it speaks to the advantage for Miami getting their offense moving up the board. And I should note that like, I have a very optimistic projection for the Buffalo Bills. Like it's not expecting regression for Josh Allen, just because I think the dolphins are good. That defense combined with upgrades pretty much everywhere for Tua. I think that bows well for them. So 9.4 for Miami, not quite as optimistic for Detroit. There are 5.4. Maybe that's too high. I think their total is like right around there. So 5.4 for Detroit that is after adding in Sue well, good offensive line, not a lot of skill guys. So JJ, can you are you going to bother making projections for Detroit yet? Or do you think it's situation where like you just wait to see because they have to get a pass catcher at some point, right? Yeah. So in my projections right now, I have a line that just says rookie because it's coming. I know that it's coming. So yeah, I mean, like right now, if you look at their wide, I mean, obviously the backfield is locked up. Deandre Swift, you know, we'll see a good bit of work. I don't think Deandre Swift is going to be a back who sees, you know, 250 plus carries in the season, but his target share numbers could be bonkers just given the kind of running back that he is. So the backfield is pretty much locked up. Tight ends obviously locked up. But I don't know if people have looked at their wide receiver depth chart. But it's it's currently for I believe, I mean, it could have changed. I don't know your muffs for everyone. Yeah, it's currently for shod pyramid, Tyrell Williams and Quintez Cephas. That's what they're working with right now. And so they're going to have to go after some wide receivers in this draft. The problem is they didn't get one here, right? And I mentioned earlier, I do think that from a true alpha standpoint, there aren't many of them in this class. And if you look at what they have right now, a wide receiver, they don't have that. They have two burners with brashad, Paramount and Tyrell Williams to Y guys, basically. And then you have, you know, their Cephas is more of a slot guy. And so I don't know if they will get that true, true X in this draft, maybe, maybe terrorist Marshall, maybe, you know, in the second, I think they still they have their second, right? So maybe terrorist Marshall. But that's that's where they're at right now at the wide receiver position. It's just really, really not good. Yeah, it's rough. So they've got to be there at some point. We'll see what they do to address that eventually. Now the Panthers pick is in. I find this one very interesting because the overs already hit on Mack Jones and Justin Fields. So, you know, from a betting perspective, that's already happened. But Carolina has Sam Darnold, not a whole lot invested because they have not in the I don't think they picked up his fifth year option yet officially, which means they could move on David Tepper, their owner is analytically minded. And we hear a lot of analytically minded people talking about the importance of quarterback where you throw stuff at a wall, see what sticks, get guys in the room, see who pans out and then figure it out from there. I feel like it wouldn't be outrageous for them to potentially go with Justin Fields here at pick number eight. I don't know if they will. I think they should personally. Ryan, what are your thoughts on Carolina here at pick eight before we know what the pick is? Yeah, I while I'm looking at Ian Rapp for here on NFL Network talking about how Justin Fields is the only quarterback that they are interested in at all so that that would definitely be intriguing. I currently love Robbie Anderson right now being reunited with Sam Darnold just because of what they were able to what he was able to do with them when they were at the Jets. And you're talking about, you know, still having a guy like DJ more there and Christian McCaffrey obviously. So I mean, whoever the quarterback is is going to have weapons to utilize. I would love to see them just, you know, take care of some of these other needs that they could, especially since they just traded for Darnold. But I really have no feel for what Carolina is going to do here. And, you know, you got those college guys there and Joe Brady and Matt Rule, that could really shake things up here at number eight. I kind of want them to I want this to happen. We talked about the landing spots for San Francisco and Denver earlier, but like Carolina is pretty good too. Given the play callers you were talking about the what they showed last year, I thought was really impressive. You know what they did with Teddy Bridgewater quarterback. And it's not like Bridgewater is a bad quarterback, but I thought they did pretty well. So pick is in for Carolina. Let's see what they do. I think that Rashawn Slater is very much in play here. Nope, it's not. The pick is in for Carolina and the first defensive player of the draft has taken JC Horne. So the Panthers now eight straight defensive players taken in the draft. So that means that JC Horne is the first defensive player taken. Let's see if I had the odds on that pulled up here. He was minus 105 to go in the top 10. He was plus 170 to be the first quarterback taken, which he was here. So we have JC Horne eight overall to Carolina. That means they don't go quarterback, which means Justin Fields still on the board here for the Denver Broncos at pick nine, kind of regretting the fact that I didn't go with the Broncos state quarterback at plus 340, which was my initial bet, but I got scared by all the Mark Slater there and Rodgers reports and dumped out of it. So I didn't want to go in there, but I'm going to go back to the Lions here quick because Brandon, I didn't get your take on their win total for this year. I have them at 5.4 after adding Sue L. Are you as low as I am on them? I'm lower. Foxback has them at five and a half wins. I did upgrade them a bit because again, consistent with my findings, like offensive linemen do typically have some positive impact. You talked about their offensive line overall, but they came out at 4.7 wins for me on top eight. Scheduled difficulty, not going to be favored very frequently. So factoring all that in, not looking super hot and like Jay-D mentioned, they're wide receivers. When I first looked at them a couple of days ago, refreshing my mind, it was concerning. So I was laughing there because Shocker, the guy who at one point was a huge Jarrett Goff truth. There was a point eight wins above you on the Detroit Lions who could have possibly predicted that. Okay. So I added in JC Horne to my Panthers number. So Brandon, the difficulty I had with the Panthers is when they made the San Darnold trade, I didn't move them at all. I had moved them down with Curtis Samuel being gone because like the whoever's getting third in targets there is probably going to be worse than Curtis Samuel. So I downgrade for their overall offensive efficiency with no Samuel. And I can't really view Sam Darnold as an upgrade. If I were to go anyway, I'd feel like I'd probably downgrade their projected passing efficiency. So I've been at seven and a half. That feels kind of high still. Where are you on Carolina based on the all season moves they've made? So you said you had them at seven and a half? Yeah. That's what they are on Foxbat. They came out at 6.9 for me. They're actually very nice. But their efficiency kind of like I have a kind of convoluted process, but you know, I can see what their efficiency sort of says they should be. I haven't like a 6.3 win team. But then once you would account that, you put it in the simulator and play the season out a bunch of times, almost seven wins, but still, you know, on that under, not really a team that I would be expecting to win eight games this year, though. Yeah. They're an easy stay away from me personally, just because like it's partly because I'm right on the number at Foxbat, but also because I just don't know what to expect out of Sam Darnold. It's an upgrade for him from a fantasy perspective, but you know, it's still not the, I don't know how much faith I should have in him overall. Do you want to set a quick reminder? We're going to be giving away the Jersey for the random Jersey giveaway. You get to pick who you want in the Jersey. We're going to give that way after pick 10. So you got a couple of minutes left here still. Go to YouTube, check out the description on this live stream, click expand, click the King Sumo link, enter your email there. That'll get you entered to win the NFL Jersey of your choice. As a reminder as well, we are back once again tomorrow at 7 p.m. Eastern, right here on the Fando YouTube Twitch, Facebook and Twitter pages will be going live for rounds two and three, breaking down the fantasy implications there and a lot more wider receivers going to go than as well, probably potentially depending on how the running backs go. A lot of that as well. So make sure you come back tomorrow, 7 p.m. Eastern, just subscribe on the Fando YouTube, Twitch, Facebook or Twitter pages and make sure you tune in tomorrow once again. Also, we do have time to take some questions specifically. I have YouTube pulled up. So if you want to ask a question, I would go over there and ask that. We have a question from Serp Funkyton. Funkyton, I probably messed that up. Does Denver go Mac Jones? And Justin asked, please fields to Denver. I would love fields to Denver. I think that'd be tremendous. I think that the, so an answer Serp Funkyton, I don't know if that's right, but we're going to go with it. I don't think Mac Jones goes to Denver because what is the difference between Teddy Bridgewater? Oh, he said it. He said it. I mean, like, I don't know. I mean, to be fair, to be fair, though, Mac Jones going to Denver would be like him playing in Alabama where you have, you have a good offensive line, pretty good offensive line. You have weapons, incredible weapons, right? He'd be back with Jerry Judy. I don't even know if they, I guess they didn't even like play together, right? No, yeah, they did because, because Jones played for Tua when he was here. True. True. Yeah, exactly. So he'll be back with Jerry Judy, you know, Cortland Sutton's there, no offense. Alberto K. J. Hamler. I mean, this is a good set of weapons that basically what I'm saying is you have to be pretty bad at the position to not be able to do something. So I can understand. That's not a very poor drill on too much. The guy's been through a lot. I do hope it's Justin Fields though. I really, really hope it's Justin Fields, because again, we talked about this earlier. If this is Fields, all of a sudden in Super Flex, start at rookie drafts, you all of a sudden have a one, two, three where, you know, there's a lot more depth there. You don't have to like, you know, feel weird if you're chilling there at the three spot, and there's like a clear one and two. And I'm not saying that as someone who has multiple one of the threes this year. I have one in a league that has copies with you. I think I had the 1.03. One of the 1.03 is I think you have one of the 1.02s in that one. Yeah, but it's the start to tight end. So I'm probably going to, I might lean pits there. I drafted Jared Goff in the startup. So I need to draft a quarterback. So I'm hoping for a good landing spot for Justin Fields. The pick is not yet in for Denver. I really don't think that Denver expected to be in this situation without trading. I think they did either, but I feel like if you, if you are given a gift, you should accept the gift. The gift is Justin Fields being available for you at pick number nine. You should be okay to take that. The pick is in. We have a couple seconds here. So Ryan, I do want to ask you about Carolina. No changes as far as the personnel. We have Sam Darnold, Robbie Anderson, DJ Moore, Christian McCaffrey, good supporting cast. Can Sam Darnold be good enough though to make them still be DFS relevant? And Jim, you're bearing the lead. He gets away from Adam Gase. Everybody gets away from Adam Gase goes on to do great things. So yeah, no, you're not going to really sell me on Darnold, so to speak, but definitely the weapons as in Robbie Anderson and DJ Moore still love them. I think they should be able to scheme some touches to them. And then also, I just wanted to mention real quick with the Detroit Lions, it's a DeAndre Swift season. I mean, this guy is going to be incredible. Anthony Lynn is there now as the offensive coordinator who was able to get Austin Eckler all the touches that we not all of them because he loves them on the field for sure, but definitely was able to manufacture touches for Austin Eckler too. So love DeAndre, especially if they're not going to address wide receiver until their next pick, which I believe is 41. So yeah, well, no, I think that you're spot on like Anthony Lynn is the reason. So I have this this this take that I try to not vocalize because like I know people will shred me on Twitter and I get shredded and I don't need this. But like, I think Anthony Lynn is a very good offensive coordinator. That is the take I will take to my grave. And I think it's a good thing for DeAndre Swift that they went offensive line. They need to pass catcher so that they can generate enough touchdowns so that the under system have a ceiling for fantasy. But the floor is very good. And Anthony Lynn is part of the reason the floor is good. Okay. Pick is in for Denver at pick number nine. They got a lot of ways to go with this. There's been a lot of Justin Fields around defense. They couldn't go off in the line, I think. Never know. And now they're pulling up a Jersey Patrick Sartan. Okay. So the Cowboys get sniped. I can't you can't hate. I can't hate on teams though that address important positions and dress important positions. Exactly. I get more tilted when they're going after positions that don't that aren't important. And I talk about this all the time with with Rando's on Twitter, where I'm saying, you know, I just just random people that hit me up where they hit me up and they start yelling because next time JJ say, okay, because because they say, oh, but Najee Harris is so good or oh, but this this player who plays this position is so good. What you should really be doing is is doing your best to enhance the pass and stop the pass period. And so you're looking at offensive line. I can't fault any any team going offensive line and trying to build offensive line. We know how important the O line is. Quarterback obviously wide receiver. And then on the defensive side, that's edge rush. You don't have the edge rushers in this class like we've seen in historical classes, but it's edge rush. And that's cornerback. And, you know, to me, team building, you know, Denver, I mean, Denver's cornerbacks are now pretty freaking awesome. But, you know, team building wise quarterback is still a very big question mark. And I actually think Denver is not that far away. Technically, I mean, the offensive like we already talked about the offense. If you plop a quarterback in there, he's going to be able to do fine. Defense is not that bad. You have good good players on the line. You have good you had good cornerbacks even before this pick. You enhance that sure. So I mean, maybe they're doing something that we don't know. I still think quarterback was the more logical choice for that team and where they're at because you could realistically went, you know, you could start to be competitive in a year or two. Yeah, I think the quarterback in general was not a not necessarily the biggest need. I would say quarterback when Justin Fields is on the board becomes a need. So it's like, oh, if you get a gift, you should accept it. That's where I'm at with them. But it's going to be looks like as of now, unless an Aaron Rodgers deal does come on later on. Yeah, would you think quarterback would be relevant for that for the Packers? No, I would guess not because I think that if maybe this is because I didn't have a high opinion Jordan Love, I feel like if they were going to make a move, they would have gotten a piece they could have sent back a law a.k.a. Justin Fields, like get a quarterback you can trade to Green Bay in that scenario if you wanted to do it. So I feel like that actually might lower the odds that happens. I'm not totally sure, but two things that I want to add here. Number one, how pissed off are the Cowboys that two corners? I know. So pissed. Like every mock draft was Patrick Sertan to Dallas, Patrick Sertan to Dallas, Patrick Sertan to Dallas. And then number two, how annoyed are we going to be when Justin Fields is a New England patriot? Oh gosh. I was actually I was going to lead off with that when Jim asked me like what my what I was watching for. I was like somehow some way Justin Fields is going to be a patriot and then it's going to start all over again. Well, or or the Patriots can just they're going to be able to be in a position to get a ransom for that pick. Yeah, you're looking at who's up. I mean, Dallas, the Giants, Philly Giants, I'll say that as well. They really should. Yes. Please, I would love that. Yeah, it's it's it's insane. I'm pretty sure I said a while ago that the Lions, Panthers and Broncos should be contracted if they didn't draft Justin Fields. I might have been a little bit harsh in that. But you know, that's fine. Not harsh. Here's the other thing. The other thing. Does this not feel somewhat like it felt when Deshaun Watson fell? I don't know. That's interesting. It doesn't for me, JJ, because we kind of knew that it was a potential possibility because all of this talk behind him was like, how are these GMS and people who are supposed to be doing this for a living, like not seeing what the public is seeing, you know? And that's kind of how I feel sometimes. And we'll see what happens because you have a guy who's here in Denver, Elway, who, you know, we have a trade, by the way. Oh, here we go. The Eagles just moved up to 10. So they jumped. They traded within the NFC East. They're not going to jump the NFC East as well. They jumped. Yeah, but they're jumping the giant. They're going to get Devontae Smith here. This has to be Devontae Smith because because Smith is the last part of that tier. And a lot of people were mocking the Giants, which was kind of bizarre to me. It didn't make a ton of sense. I think this has to be Devontae Smith. It has to be Devontae Smith. So as someone who had Devontae Smith under 11 and a half, that would be good. Helping make up for my Justin Stilts. They're not going. They're not going fields right now. No, no, no, no. I mean, like, no, they should. I think it probably should. Yeah, but I was like, yeah, we have a Siriani who's who's saying that there's a quarterback competition, right? Yeah. It's not between Joe Flacco and Joe and Hertz. I'll tell you that. So why not bring in fields and just, you know, make it a three man? This has to be Devontae Smith. I think you're probably right. Although I would say Rashawn Slater is not totally out of their own possibility because that offensive line is aged and old. That is for sure. Devontae Smith is very much a need for someone who doesn't know this stuff. Would the Giants be looking at offensive line? Yes, they should. They need to. They are interior line especially. They have other issues. So I didn't know if that was like their number one issue. Actively bad. They traded Kevin Zitler, who was, he thought off a bit last year. But so the trade here is the Eagles gave a pick 84 to move up two picks to pick number 10. They swapped first though. Yes, they saw first. So Dallas will pick a pick 12. They moved down a couple of spots. I think there were, I think all three of these teams are Rashawn Slater contenders. I do want to see the the prop bets on Rashawn Slater coming into today. Actually, his total was nine and a half. So the totally overs already hit for him. I'm getting ready. I'm getting ready to make a Devontae Smith projection boys. I think it's going to happen. Okay, so we're going to get that the Eagles trade up, which I think was interesting because everything about them this off season has said 2021 doesn't matter. So Brandon, when I look at my wind total projections, they don't like the Eagles at all. Are you in a similar boat with the Eagles right now? I think we're going to differ there. Oh, no. By how much? By how much? Well, what do you have them at? Because their wind total is, what's that? I don't want to say it. Now you got to tell me. Just tell me the wind total first. So they're over under six and a half on Fox bet. Oh, okay, cool. That's fine. I have them at 7.6 wins. Okay, we're off. We're fighting and I'm five and a half. I just like with, I know the offensive line gets guys back like Andre Diller missed the entire year last year. Lane Johnson was never fully healthy. Brandon Brooks is healthy. They have a lot of guys who are coming back, but the core around Jalen Hertz is not one that is positioned right now to allow Jalen Hertz to succeed. And because so much of my projections revolve around projected passing offensive efficiency, it's really rough. So that's why I'm low here. I'm assuming you have the offense overall ranked? Where are you with Phillies? Probably the better question right now. So overall offensive efficiency, Philadelphia projected 28th. Okay, yeah, that explains a lot then. Yeah. So here's the details on the trade with the Cowboys getting picked 12, the Eagles getting pick number 10 as they trade up here. So let's see what they do. I feel like JJ's probably right that it is Devonte Smith going to Philadelphia. A question from Bethany Peters over on YouTube for Ryan. She's asking, how would a tight, drafting a tight end like pits alter your strategy and best ball for how many of the position you would roster? So pits probably going to be like not a super late round tight. I assume people will be pretty on to him. If you get pits, are you drafting more to safeguard yourself against like the potential issues with the rookie tight end, or do you feel pretty good about that position because pits could be so good in that offense? Yeah, I mean, it's going to be tough because he had an ADP of around 76.4, I believe the tight end six before this happened. I mean, but again, everything was talking about of him going for so I think people were expecting him to land in that situation. For me, it makes it tough to buy into him in a best ball situation as a rookie at that high. If it happens to where he falls to me and I'm making my picks and I'm able to get him in a round where I feel comfortable and he falls in my lap, I'll take him, but I'm not going to go out of my way. People are going to reach on Kyle pits. I could see him going third, fourth, fifth round given this scenario, especially with the speculation of Julio still swirling around. We don't know what's going to happen. So little rich for my blood, but if he's there after five rounds and I could still get him five or six, I'd like that. I mean, sure. You know, with that projection, why not? Okay. The Eagles pick is in at pick number 10 after the trade up with the Dallas Cowboys, and it is in fact Devontae. I got a projection ready, boys. I got a projection ready. This is why he's a pro. It is the editor in MF and chief of Fandolin number fire because he got that projection ready to go before the pick was even in JJ hit us. I got Devontae Smith actually. So he, he bumped Jalen waddle from wide receiver 52 to 53 because they're basically identical doing it in different ways. The Devontae Smith 57 catches seven hundred and six, seven hundred and seventy six yards, 4.8 touchdowns, 9.6 PPR points per game. Now, you know, there's the reason I say it's two different situations. I think with waddle, you're looking at probably some bigger playability than Devontae Smith and he's not going to see the same type. I mean, he's not going to play the same type of position as Devontae Smith will. Devontae Smith is probably going to be a lot on the outside going to play a lot on the outside as he did at Alabama. But the difference is that, you know, this is probably going to be a more run heavy offense than what we're going to see in Miami as well. But the difference is that there's just more target share up for grabs in this Philadelphia offense with Jalen Rager being the only other wide. I actually think that Devontae Smith outtargets Jalen Rager this year. You know, just what I've studied historically is that rookie wide receivers who I know Jalen Rager was hurt and I liked Rager coming out. He was my wide receiver four. But historically what we found is that, you know, wide receivers who don't do a whole lot their rookie season, you know, generally don't become studs very often. So Jalen Rager can, sure, I think he's going to be a fine piece, but not the piece. And I wouldn't be shocked at all if Devontae Smith right away is the guy in Philadelphia getting that 16, 17% target share, kind of a flat distribution throughout that offense, you know, because they utilize their tight ends and Zach Hertz is still there, the corpse of Zach Hertz, I should say. And so, you know, Devontae Smith not a bad landing spot. I didn't, you know, I like him enough as a prospect. We can talk about that in a second, I'm sure. But I don't think it's a terrible landing spot for him to see volume right away and be an integral part of that offense. It's just that, you know, there's question marks on how that offense is going to run. I think Philly's going to end up having one of the lower pass to rush ratios this year given how they ran the offense with Jalen Hertz. And so that's going to limit his upside just a little bit. Well, I do want to hear your thoughts on Smith as a prospect overall, because he's a fascinating study, given the production, but also some of the red flags in being an older commit. Before that, though, there is some fun here because we get Joe Burrow reunited with Jamar Chase, Jalen Hertz, reunited with Devontae Smith, the guy who caught the game winning touchdown pass in the game, where Hertz got benched for two at Tunga by Loa. So everything coming a full circle. But talk to me about Devontae Smith. He does go 10th overall. There are concerns with, oh, the bears are on the clock, Ryan, just so you know. Oh, Ryan, you're about to get him. Oh, Ryan, while you compose yourself, I just tweeted to you. You got to go change pants. Go ahead. Totally. Oh, it's a good J. J talking about Devontae Smith that I'm going to ask you, Ryan, if it's Mac Jones or Justin Fields. Oh, man, if it ends up being Mac Jones, I'm going to die laughing. So Devontae Smith, a lot of people are going to be concerned about his BMI matters to some degree in my model. BMI does, but don't overstate what BMI does. And, you know, by BMI, for anyone listening, I'm talking about body mass index. I'm just talking about the thickness of the wide receiver. Devontae Smith has a BMI that's like 22, and we don't see that ever. You know, if you look at first rounders historically, the lowest in my database is like Hollywood Brown and Calvin Ridley, which were closer to 25. But Devontae Smith is skinny. I'm not as concerned about that. I'm more concerned about his non-early-declared status, which, you know, we can talk all day about how he went back, he won the Heisman. But being an early-declare, only playing three years in college and then going to the NFL has signal because it tells us that you're talented enough to get out of college and go to the NFL early. And so if he went back to college, that signals us that he wasn't ready to be a first round pick in the NFL, and that teams weren't going to pick them there. And so that's the reason their signal. We've seen 53 wide receivers drafted in the first round since 2006 before tonight. Of those 53, there were 13 of them that were non-early-declars, and of those 13, only five of them posted one 1,000-yard season in the NFL, and only one of those wide receivers posted multiple 1,000-yard seasons. That was Dwayne Bow. So I'm more concerned about the lack of good breakout age for Devontae Smith, the lack of early-declare status. I'm more concerned about that stuff than I am, the BMI and the stuff that usually doesn't matter. And I would argue that Devontae Smith's BMI, if it were higher, he wouldn't be the same prospect that he is and the same player that he is. So I still think he's a good wide receiver. He's probably going to be my wide receiver, two or three post-draft depending on what happens with Elijah Moore and Rondell Moore, or not Rondell Moore, Rashad Bateman. And you know, Tarris Marshall, I think he's going to drop, so he's going to drop in my rankings. But Devontae Smith from a dynasty standpoint, I got Jamar Chase as the wide receiver, won. And then there's a big group still, even with these landing spots where you got Devontae Smith, Jaylen Waddle. And again, we'll see where Elijah Moore and Rashad Bateman end up going. All right, Ryan, talk to me. How are we feeling? What's survived? Are you good? I've not felt this anxious since 2017. And, you know, of course, San Fran was involved in that. And now, you know, by not taking Mack Jones, I guess they could be involved again, depending on who this pick is. You know, they traded, so you trade your 20 fifth round pick. And they, I think they gave up a 22 first rounder. So basically hedging everything. This has to be for fields. I mean, there's J.J. Doney, I can't even look at J.J. because when it's not for fields, I'm going to feel salty and just like I should have, I should have thought that. But either way, they definitely believe in, you know, all that stuff that they said about Andy Dalton, not true, that he's not the quarterback of the future. And they did not age well. So we will see. I would not be shocked to see it be Mack Jones because Mack Jones was the favorite from all of the higher ups. So I could see them thinking they got one off on people by getting him here. But this has to be fields. I hope that somebody in that room is saying we can't pass up on this guy. He's falling right into our laps. We didn't have to do much to trade up for him. When people didn't think they were in a position to make a big splash like this. So all right, the pick is in the Chicago Bears after trading up to pick 11 are taking Roger Goodell is stalling, making us wait for the 11th overall pick in this year's draft. The details of the trade on the screen. This is so good. I'm so glad we have a Bears fan right now in this change the graphic. What is happening? Oh, we're talking about there's a there's a marathon. They're raising money for something. Wow, this is just painful. Well, I'm trying to build out. I am Ryan. I don't want to jinx it, but I'm starting to build out the Justin Field projection. Okay, well, that's that's risky. Build it out. Build it out. That's good luck. The Giants gave up next year's first round pick a fifth round pick this year and a fourth round pick next year. And they gave that up to select with the 11th overall pick. Potentially we're finally going to know Dave Gettleman traded back by the way. Oh, it happened. Wow. Oh my gosh, save the day just passed off to another guy. Okay. Take the mask off and let's get it. Come on. Show me the graphic, baby. Show me the money. The suspense. Bears fans are happy. Yeah, it's Justin Fields to the Chicago Bears. They trade up the Chicago Bears have their actual QB one Justin Fields goes 11th overall. Sorry. Nine or so picks too late, but he comes off the board. So, Ryan, going back to you one more time. Justin Field is a Chicago bear. What is your outlook for this offense? Your offense headed by Justin Fields. That's that must sound fun. All the Darnell Mooney because he's, you know, he's the one who's going to be around for a while. I mean, this is awesome for Alan Robinson and best balls. I'm so excited that I took a chance on getting him when there was rumors that we were going to be landing Russell Wilson here. So I wanted to, you know, go ahead and get some shares of him there. This is great. I mean, I can't remember any time in my lifetime, we've had a franchise quarterback that we could, you know, talk about of this magnitude. You know, of course, the Ohio State talk and the narrative of, oh, you know, I can already see the narrative tomorrow is going to be, well, so many teams didn't want to take Justin Fields. And of course, Ryan Payson, the Bears do take them. So what does that say? But this guy is so talented. I mean, this is going to be so exciting. My fiance has already texted me that she's happy we renewed the Bears season tickets. That was a conversation. So this, this is awesome. This is exciting. It's exciting for the offense. I mean, he's going to, Matt Nagy is going to have a guy that he can mold. He left before he was able to do that with Patrick Holmes. Now he gets a Justin Fields guy. This is kind of what we've been waiting to see is what he can do with a quarterback like this. And you're talking about the way they can scheme things with him to kind of, you know, run and maybe build out a West Coast offense there in Chicago. This is going to be awesome for guys like, like I said, Darnell Mooney, late in drafts, please snag him up because he is going to be awesome. Even a guy like Cole Comet, you know, I tied in late. If you want to punt tied in, getting a guy like him, but I'm actually shocked that they were able to somehow do this. This does not feel real. And I will, I will be taking this time now to go on the website in order jersey. I am proud of you. Very good selection. Now you can get entered in the drawing. Maybe I guess that's probably dumb. Okay. The Justin Fields Jersey swap already on the Chicago Bears. Andy, who did that already, but good job on the graphic side over at Fandall of getting a Justin Fields up there already. The reason we are excited about Justin Fields is he is a tremendous quarterback prospect. He doesn't have the experience factors we talked about with Trevor Lawrence, but tremendous efficiency. He is a runner, but also look at that efficiency. He was a number two in total QBR in the nation behind Mac Jones this year. And that's a number that accounts for schedule. That is important because Justin Fields faced the toughest schedule we have seen for a quarterback probably ever. The average ranking of the defense he faced in SP plus was 24.63. The second toughest ranking for a quarterback drafted since 2010 was 33.00 by Sam Bradford in a year where he played like five games before he got hurt. The second, the second toughest one for a guy who played a full season was Jake Locker at 35.83. So a full 11 spots gap between Justin Fields and the field. So yeah, we can talk about struggles against Indiana and Northwestern. Northwestern is a good defense, obviously, but also he faced a lot of good defense. If you face enough good defense, you're going to struggle eventually. And overall, he still had a 9.4 adjusted yards per attempt against top 50 defenses by SP plus this year. He was very good. That's why we are excited to see Justin Fields finally get picked too late, but he did get picked. And we are very happy about that. Guys, JJ, let's let's let's raise a glass to Alan Robinson, his best quarter getting the best quarterback that he's ever played with periods dating back to ever. I mean, ever, right? Like ever because college was awful, too. So yeah, projection wise, it's a little difficult for Justin Fields. I think that he has a better chance to play a lot of games than Trey Lance does. I could see a scenario where like Dalton starts the first game and they're like, what are we doing? Why are we doing this right now? So like a Tom Savage, Deshaun Watson. Right, right. Exactly. So Fields right now, though, with all that being said, I have met about 35 50 passing yards, 21 and a half passing touchdowns, which probably should be higher. 367 rushing yards, which again, it's at that right now, not because he's not projected to play everything, three to four touchdowns on the ground, 12.7 interceptions, 15.3 PPR points per game. I don't know why I said PPR doesn't matter for quarterbacks, but again, that's that's his projection divided by 17. So it's not actually what I would expect him to. I would expect his points per game number to be closer to like 17 to 19, as opposed to, you know, that that 15 number. I think he's another good late round quarterback option this year, as long as, you know, reports are positive and that he does end up, you know, getting that starting job, which right now I think we should feel fairly confident in, even though Chicago told Andy Dalton that he was, he was the guy, poor Andy Dalton, man, poor Andy Dalton. I mean, he got 10 mil, right? Yeah, that's true. Who's this going to who's this going to be, though? Is this is this Slater, Jim? Yeah, Rashaan Slater, because he's a versatile offensive lineman, you can plug him in a guard right now. And then if Tyron Smith, you know, Tyron Smith is tremendous, but he has neck injuries. It's been, you know, he's had a rough go of it. Maybe you can move Rashaan Slater left tackle after, you know, Tyron Smith's time is up. So let's see if they do wind up going offensive line here. I do want to go to Brandon because he's cooked up a prospect model that has like top comps. His one for Justin Fields is pretty fun. So we'll get to that here after the the Cowboys get their pick in the Cowboys. I believe we're just like everyone had them taking a corner, but now that both Jaycee Horne and Patrick Sir Tanner off the board, that changes the equation quite a bit, as far as them. But like if you look at my wind total projections, they love the Cowboys, they're currently actually tied for fifth in wind total projection for this year, that is despite having a pretty rough projected past defense. And we'll see that changes here once they announce the pick for the Dallas Cowboys. Okay, they are going to announce it now. We'll see what the Cowboys do here at pick number 12, following their trade down with the Philadelphia Eagles. The person announcing this seems epic. I wish I had volume on. She's very excited. I would be to be in Cleveland watching the draft. What better thing than that? Michael Parsons. Hey, so it was not my school, it was Brandon's school. Michael Parsons, at least at a time. Michael Parsons goes to the Dallas Cowboys. They do get a difference making defensive player in Michael Parsons. I think they said Keanu Neal is going to be playing linebacker there as well. So Sean Lee retires. Michael Parsons come in, but I think that it's kind of like a pit situation where he's not necessarily a linebacker, kind of like a defensive playmaker. So that's why I do him there. But Brandon, I want to go back to you. Let's talk more about Justin Fields going to Chicago. You have this prospect model where you can put in inputs on different players and it'll spit out a top comp for the player. Who is your top comp in that for Justin Fields? Now that he is a Chicago bear. Yeah. So, I mean, all throughout draft season, we get what player this reminds me of, and that's the way that most people have their comps. And that's awesome. That's fine. That's not what I can do best. What I can do is look at the most predictive inputs, the most important things, wait things certain ways, looking at things like efficiency, rushing production in college, your age adjusted experience, which is something I learned from Jim, just kind of stole that right from him. But his top comp now is a lot of this has to do with the fact of the similar draft equity to Patrick Mahomes. Now is number one. So he's 89.2% likely or similar. And, you know, the rest of his comps are pretty good overall. Trey Lance, Zach Wilson, so we don't know, but very similar prospects, which kind of goes into, you know, the whole discussion that we're having of why, why, why him, why is he falling and not these other guys. Dwayne Haskins, but also Joe Burrow to Johnny football, Kyler Murray. That took a dark turn. So, so I mean, there, there are some guys who didn't pan out, but you couldn't ask for a whole lot better of a profile. Right. And so I think for people who look at this from like an analytic standpoint, sure, I don't know why he was the one who fell necessarily, but very promising overall. I think that what were we just talking about? I have no idea what I was going to say. It's going to happen a lot on the show. By the way, did the bears pick him at 12? Is that what? Oh, yeah. So the key thing to note there with Mahomes being the top comp for Justin Fields is that it's Patrick Mahomes coming out of college and Patrick Mahomes hit like he was awesome, but he also had Andy Reid. He had this great supporting cast. We don't know what the outcome is. We're saying there are a lot of similarities between those two guys. And I thought there were a lot of similarities between it's not a comp, but there were similarities between Patrick Mahomes and Zach Wilson as well because off platform throws coming from a school that didn't face the best competition. Two and a half year starter, both of those guys started as true freshmen at their respective schools, very young Mahomes, a bit more experienced. He had 30 games of 10 plus attempts. Wilson had 27. They were very similar and both had good efficiency numbers in college. So that's what we're saying is that their prospect profiles are similar. That does not mean they will pan out the same. I think that that is, I would say the way that I phrase in Brandon, you can disagree at this, but I think that what I would say is something Patrick Mahomes asked is within the range of outcomes for Justin Fields. Do you buy or sell that phrasing of it? I mean, that's a, I mean, like I think that if he's your top comp, you got to say it. No, you have to say he'll be. No, no, no, I don't have to say that. What I can say and what I have to say is that based on the most important factors in college quarterback profiles, Justin Fields has a similar profile to Patrick Mahomes. He also has a similar profile to other players, obviously. But to say that he has Patrick Mahomes in him, I can't say because Mahomes is like, do the hot take. No, but I think that like the Zach Wilson Mahomes thing from like a film standpoint is like, we hear that a lot. We hear things like that. But what I think is most like intriguing is like, we don't know who's going to pan out. So we might as well look at what matters and look at like, what do players like Justin Fields, like who are they? Who have they been? And then we go from there. So I'm not going to say that he has Patrick Mahomes in his range of outcomes because we know what Patrick Mahomes has become. And Patrick Mahomes has become someone you can't compare anyone to. You know, fun, you know, fun, not just disappointed. JJ, Brandon wouldn't give me a hot take. Someone asked you, Dynasty, Superflex, quarterback rankings, we now know the landing spots for the four relevant guys, I'll say. Okay. How are you ranking Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance and Justin Fields now that we know where they're playing? Yeah, I mean, I think that we can rank the top five now because I would assume that Mac Jones is just going to be the fifth. I mean, he would be the fifth probably regardless. Yeah. So I'm going to Trevor Lawrence first. I think I'm going to go Trey Lance over Justin Fields still, but same tier. I think, you know, it's not as attractive as Denver, but it could be worse. Organizationally, no offense to Ryan, you know, you kind of wish it would have been a little bit better of a landing spot there. But yeah, I mean, look, I think that Trey Lance and Justin Fields are sort of in their own tier now, given the, not only that, there's a draft capital gap there, at least some, right? And then Zach Wilson would be fourth probably in the next tier. And then I would put a new tier then again, going to Mac Jones. I'm assuming Jones finds a spot here in the first round. But who knows? I mean, we'll see. But the Chargers here, I assume it's going to go and get Rashawn Slater, right? Plug them in the left tackle and log out and forget it. Ryan, what are your rankings for Superflex, Dynasty, Quarterbacks, taking, not literally, because you're wearing a bear's hat, taking the bear's hat off for a second. Don't not again, not literally. But how are you ranking these quarterbacks? Yeah, you definitely have to go Lawrence number one. I would go Lance too, as well. And then, yeah, then I think it's a toss up. I mean, listen, what we like, what you would like about this from a Dynasty standpoint is there's only room for this to grow for Fields. You know, for Lance and Lawrence, they're coming into situations right now where they're going to be surrounded by a plethora of talent. I mean, the bears are in this position because they haven't had talent on the offensive side of the football for a while. So it is going to be, this is not just a play-and-play, it's going to be growing pains for Justin Fields here. But because now they have the quarterback, you have Alan Robinson, maybe you can, I don't know, maybe you convince him to stay, you know, you work out a deal if you're here, you let him go, and then you have Darnell Mooney and you start all over. But at least you have the quarterback position now where people want to come to the team and play for. So I still would like him at number three, but the other two guys are leaps and bounds there. I like them above a Wilson with this pick. I think I'm in agreement with you, both of you, where I think Lance is two. I wanted to put Fields ahead, but the two most important things are surrounding talents and draft capital and both those things favor Trey Lance. So I have a higher opinion of Justin Fields and Trey Lance. So I want to put Fields higher, but the things that matter the most, both favor Trey Lance. So I will also go Trevor Lawrence won Trey Lance two, despite the fact that he might not start right away. Justin Fields three, Zach Wilson four, but I think Zach Wilson is a very respectable four because he's going to have a good play caller there. He's got some decent pass catchers. I don't think the offensive line is a train wreck. So I actually think it's a decent situation. I would say that he's like, I think he's in the same tier as Fields and Lance. I feel very good ranking them ahead of him, but I would say that he is in the same tier. And if I needed a quarterback and super flex dynasty and Zach Wilson was the one guy left, I'm not going to complain. I would take him. But I think that I, I feel like he's in the same tier that could just be because I have a very high opinion of Wilson. He did go second overall as well. So I don't know that's it makes sense to me. Yeah. I mean, I would, I think what we're really getting at here is if you're in a super flex league, dynasty league, get your quarterback this year. Yeah, you're going to get, you're going to, if you have a top half pick, you're going to get a great quarterback. And if you have a bottom half pick that hopefully means that you were competitive, right? And you probably have a good quarterback situation. You're going to have your choice of some really, really good wide receivers. And then, you know, it's going to go into like the mid second round, similar to what we saw last year really. And so, you know, unlike last year, you know, this quarterback class is probably stronger overall, but like you're, you're looking at, you know, and then last year's wide receiver class was a little bit deeper. Running that class was definitely deeper. That's really what pushed things that down. But, you know, if you're, if you're sitting in like the top nine, eight or nine in a super flex draft, you're probably feeling pretty good right now, just because you have four good landing spots for these quarterbacks, pretty good landing spots for these quarterbacks. You're going to have Jamar Chase, good landing spot in Cincinnati. You know, you have, you have the three running backs and hopefully they find, you know, these destinations where they need workhorse backs. And then all of a sudden, you know, it's just, it's, something's happening. Our producer, Cal, just went absolutely because the winner, the winner of our random Jersey giveaway is a regular viewer, Bethany Peters. Oh, wow. Yeah, Bethany got it. You have won the Jersey draw. So congratulations. I assume, I assume it's going to be a nice, fresh Chris Conley. So congratulations to Bethany, the winner of our Jersey giveaway. Congratulations to the city of Evanson, Illinois, because Rashawn Slater is going to the Los Angeles Chargers, baby. The Northwestern Wildcats have their first, first round pick since I think the least Castillo has been a hot second. Pat Fitzgerald is there with Rashawn Slater. Good day. Yeah. Coach Fitz, go cats. Rashawn Slater. My wife said that she didn't like Rashawn Slater's suit. I agree, but I can't say that even though I just did. It's a pretty bad suit. But yeah, as Rashawn Slater is wearing it, I'm feeling good. So we're feeling good. But again, congratulations, Bethany. I'm winning the Jersey giveaway there. I'm going to put Rashawn Slater into the this. What I have is I have a projected production thing based on where a player goes in the draft. Okay. So I have the production for Rashawn Slater based on that. Let's scroll down here to the Los Angeles Chargers. I'm just going to talk you through this because why not? Okay, we put Rashawn Slater left tackle over Trey Pitkins. So I'd assume that he's going to tackle. Wow. Okay. So they were ranked 23rd. And if I put Rashawn Slater in there rank first, I sent some Northwestern bias here. They move up to 15. This is this is not based on my personal opinion of Rashawn Slater, which is that he should have been the first overall pick. It's based on past production of tackles who have gone 13th overall, effectively, you know, but they move up to 15th of my offensive line rankings. And the reason they do that is because they've done a lot of work there. Corey Linsley at center, big upgrade there for them over Pouncey was there last year. Matt Filer comes over from your Pittsburgh Steelers JJ. He will likely be playing left guard. They like Odea Boushee quite a bit, Robushi. He's with the Jets back in the day with the Lions last year. It's not a bad offensive line. And now you give Justin Herbert a good offensive line or at least average offensive line, which is better than it was previously to go with Keenan Allen to go with Jared Cook, importantly, to go with Austin Neckler, Donald Parham. He needs to stay out of the pace. Like you, my Jared Cook shares going, but JJ, Justin Herbert has a pretty good supporting cast. How are you feeling about him heading into year number two? Let me pull up his projection. I mean, I'm feeling good. I think Justin Herbert's great. And I would, I would love to have him on my fantasy teams. I have him on some dynasty teams right now. I have him as QB nine. And that's mostly because he's not running the football as much as other quarterbacks are. But I will say with Herbert, I think that we have some untapped potential with his legs that we haven't seen yet. You know, I don't think he's going to be like Josh Allen necessarily necessarily, but I think he has that kind of dynamic to his game that he didn't really show last season. And so that's intriguing. But, you know, you're not going to get a lot of like the typical more pocket passers, you know, the non like Kyler Murray's and the guys who are going to run the ball for, you know, 700 plus yards. It's tough to get those players in those quarterbacks to be high end QB ones, unless they have some sort of outlier season, which will happen. I mean, there's going to be some pocket passer like Aaron Rodgers last year. And I say pocket, I understand that Aaron Rodgers can escape and do things. Jim is raising his eyebrows right now. Jets has tried it up to 14. Okay. Well, I'll finish my thought really quick. So, you know, with Justin Herbert, he's probably the best pocket. I say that and quote because he's not, I mean, he has athleticism in fantasy football that you can draft. He's just after that tier, which basically ends at like Russell Wilson when you're no longer getting those cheat code rushing quarterbacks. So the jets move up to pick 14. Also, we forgot Jones, baby. Oh, gosh. So we forgot the most burn at all. We have Joe Burrow reconnected with Jamar Chase. We have Jalen Hertz reconnected with Devonte Smith and Rashawn Slater reconnected with Justin Jackson, the carrier. Yes. Our political king. He's, he's risen. This is great. I have Austin Neckler would like for that to not happen. But like, you know, Justin Jackson is great. So we can all root for him there for sure. Okay. So the jets trade up. I have not seen the details on what they gave. They were 23rd. They traded up with the Vikings. So they were 23rd. They move up to 14th. It looks like they gave up two third round picks. Are they, they're not like reaching for a running back here or anything? Are they? I would have to assume not because I mean, there was a lot of buzz around the Cardinals and Najee Harris. Yeah, I don't see. I don't think the Cardinals are going to do that because they don't have enough draft capital on this draft in general. I thought that about the bills last year and that didn't work out very well. I haven't seen the details on what this wanted. Yeah, I still don't see anything here. I would bet it's Elijah Vera Tucker personally. Yeah, there were there was a lot of reporter buzz around Elijah Vera Tucker from people who are very well plugged in before the draft. That was the 23rd. I'm guessing because Slater went 13th, they realized that, you know, there were other teams picking in the pretty near future who might be going offensive line. There was also a lot of buzz leading in that there could be a massive massive run on offensive line. Vera Tucker could slot in their left guard for the Jets might be an upgrade there. Okay, so I'm going to read the details of the trade here. The Jets traded number 23, number 66, and number 86 for number 14, number 143. So they traded two third round picks, including a high third round pick to move up to number 14, and then dig it one pick back as well. So we'll see what the Jets do here. But I want to go to you, Ryan. We do have a pretty decent sample on Justin Herbert with the Chargers, but they've made good moves this year. They do lose Hunter Henry, but they've got a good supporting cast. So how are you feeling about this offense for DFS heading into 2021? Yeah, love Justin Herbert. The guy is just awesome. I mean, just talk about swag that he just exudes out of his body. Keenan Allen is a guy who always gets slept on. I think this is going to be an awesome team to stack because they're showing up everything. They got a new new coordinators coming in and a new head coach coming in. So I definitely like Herbert here. I think it's going to be awesome to stack them with the healthy Keenan Allen, get Mike Williams out there. Even a guy like Jalen Geithen, depending on what they do, later on in the draft, who they're going after. Jared Cookie never excites me, but I do think that Justin Herbert is going to win. How dare you? I was waiting for you, Jared Cook, our beautiful boy. Has to be done. Has to be done. He's getting older. Get Parham some reps. No, but I think Justin Herbert will definitely win a lot of people money when you're talking about stacking and being able to stack the running back as well, who is receiving back there in Austin Eckler, having two dynamic weapons there on the outside. I think that's awesome. And then Keenan Allen always gets slept on. I feel like I don't know what it is. He gets no respect. I don't feel like in fantasy circles from a general standpoint, not anybody here from a general standpoint. I hated him last year and missed out completely. That's fair. But no, I think he'll be a good target in best balls as well too. And the best thing about teams where they do the right things as far as football moves go and not the sexy fantasy move is that people start to forget about those guys. So nobody's going to be thinking about the Charger's offense when they're taking offense of tackle to sure up the things that would make Justin Herbert's life better. It's all about the sexy picks and where they go and where they land. So if it stays this way, I think we can definitely buy low on the Charger's offense. And that's a huge help for Austin Eckler. They have quite a bit invested in him from a money perspective going forward. You see the trade details here for the jets on the screen now, but that's a that's a big upgrade for Eckler who had some, you know, didn't have a lot of running room last year. Brandon, it seems like you're down on stacking. How are you feeling about the Charger's heading into next year? You feeling okay with going Keenan, Mike Williams, Austin Eckler with Justin Herbert? Yeah, I mean, toward the end of the season, we do like two weekly shows for, you know, looking at DFS toward the end of the season, I was just kind of like playing Justin Herbert. We'd always give our picks for the week, guys we love them. I just started like trending toward like, why not Justin Herbert? He has had a ceiling, clear stacking candidate in Keenan Allen, 26% target share in the games that he played. Just makes it kind of simple whenever you get that target share, target shares like, you know, target share is not always there whenever we're looking at some of these, you know, teams that we were talking about earlier, but now we're getting into the team like the Chargers where Keenan's going to get peppered with targets, and that makes for a great stack. So they just showed the Jets fans celebrating. They also showed Matt Jones, he's laughing. Is he going to New England? He's got to be going to New England. Like, it's going to happen. Matt Jones was meant to go to New England from the start. Like, it just felt like it was going to be his spot. They get the the pocket passer that they just lost in Tom Brady. Okay, so the Jets did go with Elijah Vera Tucker, probably going to play left guard for them. So he goes alongside Mackay Bekton, offensive linemen and back to back years. Joe Douglas loves since and big boys. Okay, so they put Elijah Vera Tucker in a left guard for the Jets. They were previously ranked 22nd, which honestly is not bad. They do move up. They leapfrog one team moved to 20th in the offer. They were 21st moved 20th in offensive line ranking. So they don't move up all that much because it's a guard had an okay prior and then to begin with. But I think the overall thought process of getting good impactful players at positions of importance around Zach Wilson is the way to go. I kind of wish they would address right tackle instead of left guard, but beggars can't be choosers. So I guess they do go with the left guard there. The Vikings trade down to pick number 23, which puts the Patriots on the clock here with pick number 15. Brandon, I want to go to you because the Jets, they get Zach Wilson. They have better supporting cast than they had previously. Do I ask you for their win total projection previously? I may have. I don't remember. Okay, well, let's do it right now again just in case. So they're over under on Fox bet is six and a half. My most recent simulation has them at actually 6.7 wins. It's kind of weird to think about the Jets is in over at all ever just because of what they've been over the past few years. Borderline top 12 schedule, which is not ideal. But you know, we're looking at six and a half wins in a 17 game season, investing in the offensive line, getting a big quarterback upgrade. It's pretty nice. Okay, so we'll see what the Patriots do here at pick number 15. Ryan final call. Do the Patriots go Mac Jones at the 15th overall pick? Yeah, I'm going to say they do. I'm going to say they draft their first quarterback in the first round since drew blood. So I believe like 93 or 92 when that was, and they just, you know, maybe let him sit for a little bit. I'm not sure. I think they were, they don't have the offense right now to kind of take care of what Mac Jones wants to do. I mean, he's going to be out there, you know, throwing to Kendrick Bourne and Jacobi Myers and I mean, Hunter Henry and John Doosmith, you got to like that for sure. So I guess, you know, Titans, Titans are going to get peppered there in New England if he, when he gets the chance to start, but you know, bringing back Cam Newton, I think they might let him kind of, you know, ride it out for a little bit. And then if he starts to struggle again, like he did towards the end of the 2020 season, put Mac Jones in there, but I don't know how good that would be until, you know, they get more weapons for him. Yeah, I mean, like it is, it is better than it was previously, but Nelson Aglauer is like, how much of an upgrade is that really outside of the tight end? Tight end is definitely an upgrade, but like, you know, questions around the other stuff. Okay. So the pick is in here for the Patriots, potentially Mac Jones finally ending his fall here at pick number 15. And kind of funny that there's much buzz around Jimmy Garoppolo being traded to the Patriots, because they were going to draft Matt Jones at number three. Instead, they go trade Lance, Mac Jones, falls to number 15 and is taken there by the New England Patriots. So Mac Jones goes to New England. And we've made some, I've made some jokes on Mac Jones. They are jokes. I actually think Mac Jones is fine. You know, you watch him play. You don't put up the stats he put up unless you are a competent quarterback, no matter how good the supporting cast is around you knew it was very good. The reason I was skeptical about him from a quarterback prospecting perspective is that he is in a bucket of quarterbacks that doesn't tend to be very successful. So let's pretend for a second, Mac Jones had been a top five pick. He wasn't, but let's pretend for a second that he had been there are, I think like, is it five or six other players who have been older and less experienced? So the bucket for that for me is coming off your age 22 season or older and with less than 34 games of experience, Mac Jones had just 19 games of 10 plus pass attempts coming out of Alabama. So he missed that cut off by a pretty wide margin. This is not cherry picking. He missed it by a lot. The quarterbacks who have fallen in that older, less experienced bucket have been guys like Sam Bradford, Mitchell Trebisky, sorry, Ryan, Mark Sanchez, Carson Wentz. It's been a lot of busts. Joe Burrow is the kind of the one guy you could point to. I mean, Carson Wentz is a successful pick, got a second contract, had a good year for them. But Joe Burrow is kind of the one exception. Now he falls to 15. The number of times the hit rate on a quarterback taken with the 15th overall pick is very different than a quarterback who goes much higher in the draft. So that's scary for Mac Jones. But he does go to a team that generally has, I would say, pretty smart play callers. He did have great efficiency and college mention before that Zach Wilson was a guy who had very good numbers against top 50 defense or top 50 defenses by SV Plus. Mac Jones actually is the best number in that group of all drafted quarterbacks since 2010. So there were good things with Mac Jones, and that bodes well, but less experienced older quarterbacks don't tend to pan out. Like there have been 69 total seasons, very nice, nice quarterbacks taken the first round who were older and experienced. Only two of those 69 seasons have been top 10 by total unexpected points. That was Ryan Tannehill this year and Carson Wentz in 2017. That is not a great track record. So that's the concern of me with Mac Jones is older, less experienced. A lot of question marks there. Brandon, when you plug Mac Jones at pick 15 into your database, who comes up as a top comp for him? Well, you joke that he was going to be very similar to Dwayne Haskins. And Haskins remains his top comp for me. But you talk about the experience and the age being somewhat of an issue. Some of his other comps include Brandon Whedon, Tua, Rex Grossman, Sam Bradford, Josh Rosen, Matt Leiner. So not exactly what you want to see. But again, context matters a ton. And he's going to a situation where he should be able to thrive. The Patriots should be able to get the best out of him. So factoring in that, it's probably more promising than what we see here. But I think honestly, it's not the worst fit. It's kind of intriguing, although I don't know about Ryan. We haven't talked about this. But I think we're probably all in the campaign where Cam Newton was pretty good until last season after he got COVID. So I don't know. I mean, it's going to be interesting to see how that exactly shakes out. But I was not on like, they got to move on from Cam Newton for sure. So if we take Draftstock to be similar to Mac Jones, so let's say older, less experienced first round picks since 2000, who went outside the top 10. That list is Christian Ponder, E.J. Manuel, Rex Grossman, JP Losman, Brandon Whedon, Patrick Ramsey. Not great. That is gross. So good for him. I'm glad that, you know, I think that Mac Jones deserving of being a first round pick, I will say that deserving of being a first round pick. JJ, what are your projections say about Mac Jones now that he is a new England patriot? Yeah. So I think Cam Newton is still going to get work in this offense to start the year and probably for a big chunk of it, you know, especially given the way they built the offense and, you know, just wanting to make sure that, you know, it's logical for Mac Jones to step in when he steps in for the offense to fit him. So right now I have him for just 1200 passing yards, seven passing touchdowns, 0.3 rushing touchdowns. As we know, he's not one of the best at. I mean, to be honest, though, he tested athletically like similar to like Josh Allen. So like it's could be fine. Arizona is picking right now. So I'm okay. Xavin Collins, the worst kept secret in the entire planet. Xavin Collins was going 16th overall in everyone that didn't have Najee Harris. It seemed like they were going with Xavin Collins that I guess actually only Daniel Jeremiah had him, but like there were a lot of mocks had Xavin Collins. So keep going, JJ. Xavin Collins going to Arizona. Yeah. So, you know, I wouldn't expect Mac Jones to be, you know, the starter right away in New England this year unless Cam Newton like gets annoyed or upset or whatever and doesn't want. And I'm not saying that because it's Cam Newton. I'm saying that because he's a starting quarterback in the NFL and he, you know, and, and players are like, you know, yeah, exactly. Because, you know, you're realizing Cam, Cam is so underrated as like a human and like a player and teammate and stuff. And it's very frustrated whenever he gets that kind of slack. But yeah. So I, you know, from a dynasty standpoint, again, we'll go back to Super Flex because I think that's more intriguing to talk about. If you're in a non Super Flex league, Mac Jones is like a very late round pick and rookie drafts. But if you're in a Super Flex league, I'm still taking, you know, we're taking the four quarterbacks ahead of him as we noted. I'm still taking, you know, the big three running backs, Jamar Chase ahead of him probably, unless I'm very quarterback needy. And then once you get into these wide receivers like Devontae Smith and, you know, Jalen Waddle and all, you know, this next tier of wide receivers, I think you can start to make the argument that he should be drafted, that he should be picked there only because quarterbacks are currency in Super Flex leagues. You know, I don't think he has a true QB one ceiling really in fantasy football, just given his lack of mobility. But if you're in a Super Flex league, you know, he can give you some, some QB two seasons and be fine. And that's really what, you know, what you're, you're getting at there. He's going to be like a, from a production standpoint, what we saw out of like Andy Dalton for a lot of seasons, where it was fine and he had some spike seasons, but it's not anything that you're going to, you know, write home about. Yeah. I think that for me, I would go with the receivers over Mack Jones in that situation, just because I have concerns about job security, given how far he fell, given the track record of guys who are very similar to him. You know, I think that Ryan's concerns around the supporting cast are valid too. So like, I think that there are enough concerns where I'd rather, I'd go Devontae Smith for sure. I would go to Jalen Waddle pretty easily. And depending on where the running backs go, I think easily going with them as well. So like a late first round pick, is that fair for Mack Jones? Yeah, it feels honestly, like, let's be honest, this feels like a, a Danny Dimes, like we had Josh Allen or like a late first or only second, right? And we have these quarterbacks every year where they go under and it just so happens that like Josh Allen hit like crazy. And then Danny Dimes, we thought that he did, then he didn't. And he's still like fine enough from a dynasty standpoint, like super flex standpoint, but he's not someone that you're targeting. So like he fits in that like category of these, you know, you can make the case like, I could sit here once the draft is over and probably make the case for like five to seven wide receivers to be drafted over Mack Jones in a super flex league. But if you're quarterback needy, or if you want to play that game, or if you like Mack Jones a lot, then I can understand putting him in that tier with these first round wide receivers that are going off the board. Yeah, I think that's that's where I'd be sitting there personally is in a similar mold to them. I still think the Giants should have taken Justin Fields, but you know, maybe just me with that one. Ryan, I want to go to you. The Patriots were a cross-off for me in Daily Fantasy last year. I didn't want to use them. I think that can was like a defensible pick because the rushing was so good. But like the ceiling wasn't there outside of early on and then in week 17 didn't have a ceiling. Now you bring Mack Jones there. Is that going to change your view of this offense from a DFS perspective? Do you feel good about this offense or because for me personally I have a hard time getting very excited for DFS. Yeah, no, it's going to be an avoid for me. That's a no for me dog, Jim when talking about DFS. But the only intriguing thing that I could say would be, you know, Cam Newton being there, you're rushing upside. I mean, when they get inside the 20, inside the 10, inside the five, that guy's taking the ball. But they didn't play a lot. Him and Damian Harris didn't play a lot of games together because of Damian Harris not being starting the beginning of the season there. So if Damian Harris can get going, he's an intriguing piece for me because he was really seeing some red zone usage there towards the end when he was getting going and can break off some runs. He's a pretty stellar back and Sonya Michelle is not a guy you can trust. And so I would be intrigued from that standpoint of it, you know, especially when you're talking about touchdowns being king with FanDuel and putting him in there as the running back. So that's the only thing that I could really see. It's going to be hard to trust, you know, John new or Henry, at least to start the season. We'll have to see how things play out. But from that standpoint, yeah, you're like Brandon was saying, you can play him naked in good situations and then maybe the running back and that's about it. It's tough to go beyond that. Brandon, I want to talk to you about the Patriots in general because they have been a very buzzy team this year, given the free agency money they put in and now they have Mac Jones a quarterback. I am not super high on them personally from my wind projections. Where are you out at the Patriots right now? So Fox bet has them as a nine and a half win team. I'm also very glad that you're doing this. Jim freeze. Yeah. Okay. Jim first for a little bit. So I was like, wait, because you're literally asking me a question. Jimmy froze for a sec. You're back now. You're good. Go ahead. You don't need me. What was your I wasn't we need you actually. We do. I was saying thank you for pulling the wind total numbers from Fox bet because I forgot and then my internet died. So you're saving me double, I guess. Well, I mean, yeah, I'm just out here like looking at these overrunters. But yeah, I was surprised to see that number at nine and a half. I don't know. I feel like they're just getting that Patriots respect. But for me, I have them as an 8.3 win team. So they hit the over just 22% of the time, 78% then likely to go under. The under is minus 143 for what that's worth. But yeah, nine and a half seems really high. Middling schedule for me 17th should be favored in seven of their 17 games. So I don't know. I think the numbers too high. I would definitely be inclined to go with that under. I have 7.4 is the number I have. So I'm actually a little bit lower than you. So I would be inclined towards the under as well. It's largely because I still don't have a super high projection of their passing efficiency. The Raiders just went with Alex Leatherwood, the tackle or guard potentially from Alabama. So he goes pick 17. I think that with the Patriots, I just like it's tough for me to expect like this massive, massive uptick right away given the occasional importance of continuity. All that stuff. It makes it makes it tough for me to get super excited about them from a win total perspective. So I'm still pretty skeptical. Yeah. I mean, it's a 17 game season, but they got to win 10 games to get hit that over. That's from what we see. But what we saw from them last year, that seems pretty high. Okay. So let's put Alex Leatherwood in here on the Raiders. Obviously the offensive line very different for them now than it was previously. They got rid of Rodney Hudson, got rid of Gabe Jackson. They do still have Colton Miller at left tackle and Richie and Cognito as of now is going to be at left guard. They did resign in, but that's always a very fluid situation. So we put Alex Leatherwood at right tackle here. Go over here. That's actually a pretty impactful move. So they were 27th in my offensive line rankings. They're 24th. They moved up a decent amount, but JJ, I don't think that's going to be enough to make their backfield tempting for season long because they had Josh Jacobs, they bring in Kenyon Drake. It's still a net negative for the offensive line. It still seems like a nightmare to me. Do you disagree? Let me, I'll pull up my projections because to be honest, I don't think I've actually looked into what my projections said about these guys. Because you don't want any piece of them. Yeah. I mean, you know, to be honest, Josh Jacobs still came out as like RB 20, it looks like in my projections. So it's not as bad as I thought it would be. And Kenyon Drake is like RB 30. And that's really mostly because Kenyon Drake is probably going to have an interesting receiving role in that offense. You know, Jacobs to me, though, doesn't have that ceiling that I look for. You know, he's like, he's going to be, he's going to end up being in that like dead zone of running backs that I generally avoid every year. And especially now, because he doesn't have the receiving upside, you need, you need, you need running backs to have that true receiving upside with Kenyon Drake there. And with how they've utilized Josh Jacobs up into this point, it's hard to be and it's hard to feel optimistic about Josh Jacobs all of a sudden becoming this awesome receiver. You know, we thought that we were going to see that to start last season in that game against Carolina. He goes off, he blows up and everyone's getting excited. He saw like a 15 or 18 percent target here or something in that game. And then it just didn't continue. And so it's really hard to back Jacobs, which is weird too, because him coming out of Alabama, you know, we thought that he was, oh, he would be a receiver at least, like at least he has that skill set, but they're just not utilizing him that way. And now they're definitely not going to with Kenyon Drake. Yeah, it's not as bad as it seems, I guess, because I think we kind of get in the LOL Raiders mode, and that will make Josh Jacobs look worse than he actually is based on that, but it's still, it's not fun by any means. So I have Las Vegas and Brandon, I think I'll probably be low on them. If I had to guess, actually, Sabrina's going to step out for a second, but we'll get back to you in just a bit. But for me, my wind total projections, I have them at 7.2. Oh, go ahead. No, I mean, my cat's going nuts at the door. That's all. Oh, okay. I thought you were like, she's been going crazy for a while. Here's Miami's upper art. My Miami Dolphins are picking right now. I need everyone to be quiet. Tevin Jenkins. It's better not be a running back. Tevin Jenkins. Okay. So they go with the edge player. Was that the first defense alignment taken? It honestly might have been because I think it was. Yeah. Okay. So Jalen Phillips to be the first offensive line taken defensive line. Thank you. Where do I have my sheet? I could just control left, but that'd make things far too easy. I am going to control left. Miami does not go, does not go running back, which is what we were talking about earlier. So if you need evidence that John Sheeran, one of the guys over Fandall sports book is sharp with the draft, the overrunner for Jalen Phillips, 18 and a half goes 18. He was plus 115 to be the first defense alignment drafted. So hopefully something you made some money there. The dolphins do not go running back. As you mentioned, JJ, they still have a lot of picks though. So what's your level of comfort right now with Miles Gaskin? Because it seems like there are just a lot of obstacles to left to dodge here. Yeah. Look, I mean, again, this front office and the way they're running this team, they're fairly analytically heavy. I mean, that's why they go after a wide receiver earlier to boost that passing attack. And they're not going with the running back here, even though running back is technically a need. But like we say that running back is a need for Miami based on what teams have done historically at the running back position, right? Whereas Miami could be sitting there saying, yo, we just got production out of Savon Ahmed last year, right? Like when Miles Gaskin went down, Savon Ahmed was fine, right? And so they might be sitting there saying, why do we need to go out and get Najee Harris in the first round or even spend a second round, a high equity pick in the second round on a running back when they got this production out of these guys because their scheme is good. They feel good about it. They feel good about their line enough. Like it to me, I think they just realize the positional importance. And this is why I never bought into the idea that they were going to get one of these running backs in the first round, because it just didn't make sense based on what they've told us and what they've shown us, not told us what they've done via their actions. That's really what we need to be looking at whenever we're analyzing these teams. Yeah, I think that we need to take teams at their face. When you tell me what you are, I should believe you. And the Dolphins have told us that they are a smart organization, wish they had gone offensive line personally, but you know, 0 for 2. That's fine. But I think that they're investing in the right positions. They spent big a cornerback in free agency last year. They get a defensive lineman now to hopefully rush the passer. I have high opinions of this organization. We talked about their wind total projection earlier. I'm at 9.4 with them. I think it makes a lot of sense to be in on Miami here, right? And I want to go to you and talk to Miles Gaskin, because he talked to me before. He avoids another bullet. I guess for me, my bigger concern with Gaskin still lies later on. But I guess what was your overall vibe on Miles Gaskin last year as a DFS asset? Were you in on Gaskin at times? And would you be willing to go back to him this year if they decide to keep on ignoring this position? Yeah, I was definitely in on him. He was a DFS darling towards the latter half of the season when they were coming off of their buy. He was a Swiss Army knife. He could trust them in the run. He could trust them catching passes out of the backfield. And like I said, the red zone area was a field where they utilized him. And so when you're looking at a team, I love JJ bringing out Akamed because it was like just plug and play with these guys kind of, which I guess doesn't help Miles all that well. But I think they feel comfortable in what they have, right? And so you're talking about, like I said, field stretchers and it really didn't go into Will Fuller being here, but like Will Fuller and Jalen Waddle, like that is going to make life so much easier for Tua. And like I said, just moving the ball down there. And I just think that they, you know, you're looking at Miles Gaskin probably getting, you know, no more than 15, 17 touches a game, maybe. And that'll be fine, I think from a DFS standpoint, depending on where those touches can come from. So I love this for him. And if you have him, I would say hold him because I do think that this situation for Miami is going to be Will's up. Absolutely. I can also tell you that in my projections right now, I have Miles Gaskin at RB 21, which, okay, that's not bad. You know, like, like if nothing big, if nothing significant happens throughout this draft, Miles Gaskins, not only that, but like that has room for growth, right? That's still only with two, that's 213 rush attempts that could go up a little bit. That's a target share. That's not, you know, dramatically high. And the one thing I will say is they did get Malcolm Brown this off season. And so he's someone that can serve as that like more of a bruiser and that short yardage guy. And that really does match up well with what they have in Savanna Ahmed and Miles Gaskin who are smaller guys and might not be able to handle the huge workload or, you know, coaches might not see them as being between the tackle runners close to the goal line. That might limit his upside a little bit, sure. But at the same time, it might also be telling us, Hey, maybe they're just cool with these like very average running backs and sweet. Miles Gaskin, by the way, Miles Gaskin was not a bad prospect. He had insane production throughout college. I don't think he's that bad. I just think that, you know, if you're thinking like a long term, he's obviously not going to be like a stud from a dynasty standpoint, you know, you're not put, he's never going to likely be in any sort of elite tier. But if you just need like a bridge running back, if you will, you know, throughout your, for your dynasty squad, Miles Gaskin works. And right now, the direction that they're going without getting that running back in the first round with this class being as shallow as it is, I think that he's going to come out of this draft looking decent. You know, I don't want to, I don't want to just make it concrete and say that he's going to be the RB 21. But I do think that with this class in 2021 and how things are looking and what teams could do here in the twenties at running back and in the early second round, he might be fine. He might be fine. I think I hope so. Cause he's fun. It was enjoyable to watch him last year and benefit from it in dynasty leagues where he was available on the waiver wire after week one. So that was enjoyable. Washington takes Jamie and Davis out of Kentucky. And I want to talk about Washington's offense. Another one defense here, but like, you know, it's our show, our rules. I want to talk about the offense here because Ryan Fitzpatrick is in town now. He joins Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and just a really solid team with Antonio Gibson that running back as well. I am worried about the left tackle situation, but that's kind of the one check one red flag I have with his team remaining. So JJ Ryan Fitzpatrick seems more solidified as a starter north Washington because none of the quarterbacks fell. What is your outlook for them this year with the new weapons? What if I told you that my projections right now have a wide receiver one and RB one and a tight end one in this Washington offense. You've Terry McLaurin projected right now at wide receiver 11. It's just, I mean, it's a good spot form in general. You have Antonio Gibson who's projected at RB 12 right now. And then I have Logan Thomas who's projected at tight end nine, which tight end nine, it's really whatever. You know, it's not that amazing, but you know, Logan Thomas had a strong season last year and was able to capture a nice target chair. Curtis Samuel, you know, what I think is going to happen with Curtis Samuel is they're going to utilize him similarly to how they utilized him in his final year in Carolina with this coaching staff. So, you know, with the Ron Rivera coaching staff. And that because that year they utilize them more downfield, whereas he then went back to this like, you know, the way he used them at Ohio State, the way that they used them, you know, when he first entered the league, that's how they utilized him under Joe Brady and Matt rule this past season. But I think he's going to be more of that vertical threat for Washington, which will be, which will be solid, especially from a, from a best ball standpoint. He's still though, I mean, he's still wide receiver 46 in my projections. And so, you know, I mean, it's not like he's not, he's not an incredible asset, but he's fine. You know, there's a massive group. You know, when you're looking at projections at wide receiver, I should say this too. I know that I'm rambling a little bit, but when you're, when you're looking at projections for wide receivers, the difference between like wide receiver 27 to wide receiver 50 is not really that significant. Like there's, there's not that much differentiation between those players, whereas you're, you're going to see the differentiation at the top for sure. But there's just a giant, giant cluster there with those kinds of wide receivers. So, you know, you look at a wide receiver 46 ranking, or you look at like where I'm putting Devontae Smith and Jalen Waddle and such, or Jamar Chase, a lot of those guys are like the same. What you really should be doing is chasing where there's room for growth and whether that offense is going to be good or not. I think that you can at least make the case for Curtis Samuel. So I don't mind Curtis Samuel this year either. I think being high on Gibson is smart, given the way they used him, especially like down the stretch last year, when he was healthy, they showed that they thought like, again, take teams at their word when they show you what they want to do. They showed us they viewed Antonio Gibson as being a three down back. We should believe them. Brandon Washington got some buzz from a wind total perspective because of the Ryan Fitzpatrick move. I like it for, for fantasy. I don't know how sold I am as far as Fitzpatrick being like a hyper efficient guy from a wind total projection perspective. So what are the numbers saying a Fox bet on the wind total? And what are your numbers saying about Washington? Yeah, so Fox bet has them as an eight and a half wind team, which is really now an eight wind team. What what has historically been like an eight wind team with the 17 game season minus 150 on the under, which is about, you know, that's my projections, my simulations are leaning on the under 7.9 wins for them, which makes them about 59% likely to go under. I'm with you. Uh, projecting out this offense is not necessarily a situation where I'm super optimistic. I bucket kind of just bucket the teams into expectations. They're in the in the bottom tier. Good defense project like projecting defense year over year. It is very hard. Typically, we see just like regression to simplify it. We see teams that really excelled take a step back just because of the way that defense works. So with all that, I do have the under as about 60% likely for Washington. I have 8.0 for Washington for this year. And that has two implications. The first one is not taking the over on them. But also, I feel like Dallas is a pretty good bet to win the NFC East. That's kind of the bigger takeaway for me because I have in my numbers a very high opinion of Dallas and not a super high opinion of literally anybody else in the NFC East as of right now, the Cowboys plus 105 to win the NFC East. Now that's not a short number. Like that's that's not a long number. That's a very short number plus 105. That's a little bit concerning. I don't know if I can go there, but I have then two wins better than ever the team in the NFC East. How are you doing Dallas relative to Washington in the East right now, Brandon? Yeah, so Dallas is their lines nine and a half wins. I have them at 9.8. I have them with I believe the easiest schedule. Yeah, the easiest schedule, they should be favored in 14 of their games, assuming all my numbers are correct, which, you know, at this point, I feel pretty solid with how things are coming out again. You know, it's not the most exciting to say I have this team for 0.3 wins above or below what they're projected, but you want it to be somewhat close. And so for Dallas, 9.8 wins. I think that they're pretty easily the class of the division. So I feel pretty good. I'm with you in favoring Dallas. So we're not super high on the wind total with Washington, but Ryan, I think we can be high for DFS because Ryan Fitzpatrick, despite all his flaws, potentially because of his flaws is very fun for daily fantasy. We talked about McLauren, we talked about Gibson. They're all DFS relevant. So what's your vibe on this team heading into this year? Yeah, this is again, this is going to be another team or guy who wins people a lot of money because you're going to be able to get the stacks right in certain situations, possibly against this team that we're talking about in Dallas, if they don't do anything to show up the secondary two times out of the year. So no, I think that Ryan Fitzpatrick, listen, he's a boomer bus quarterback, right? He's good and best ball, especially if you're taking the approach. If you don't get one of your top guys at the quarterback position and you want to have three guys to kind of choose from, he's a good late round target. But in DFS for sure, stacking in with guys like Logan Thomas and Terry McLauren or Terry McLauren and Curtis Samuel or even Antonio Gibson at times, if he's still catching passes out of the backfield, as we saw him do last year, target Miles Gaskin in that same way, it's going to be nice to target this team for sure. Absolutely. So it's a mixed bag for sure. Hard to be high on a journeyman old quarterback from a wind total projection perspective, but I'm okay with him in DFS until he proves me otherwise. Okay, the Giants pick is in at pick number 20. Oh my gosh, are you kidding me? Go ahead, JJ. Tell us your thoughts on this pick. Dave Gettleman. Dave Gettleman finally does something right. He trades down in a perfect position to trade down, and then he takes Kaderius Tony, who sure, he might have some sort of high ceiling if everything comes together. He has a good athletic profile. He's probably one of the best players in this draft with the ball on his hands, but you got to get the ball on his hands. He's one of the worst route runners you're going to find in this class. And his production profile is absolutely atrocious. It's not good. So here's the thing. I'll go back to what I talked about earlier. Non-early declares and guys who don't have good production in the first round have historically been not very good. And so I already mentioned the non-early declare stuff. Now I'm going to read off. Hang on. I didn't expect Kaderius Tony to go right now, so I got to find this. Troutman. Yeah. So if I look at in my model, first round picks who had negative stat scores. So I look at certain production metrics to get the stat scores. So less than or equal to zero. All right. Here we go. Let me read you. You guys ready for this? I'm very ready. Let me read you. Hit me. First round wide receivers with negative stat scores in my model since 2006. Rashad Perriman, Philip Dorsett, Kelvin Benjamin, Cordero Patterson, Darius Hayward Bay, Ted Gin, Craig Davis, Anthony Gonzalez, who's a fricking politician now, and Henry Rugs. That's the company- He's Craig Davis. That's the company that Kaderius Tony is in right now with this pick. Now I will say, I'm sorry. I got to do a projection. I know. I don't really care though. We're fine. This is better. This is great. I will say right now, New York has three very obvi- you know, Sterling Shepard can play the slot, Darius Slayton can play Flanker, and then you have Kenny Galladay playing the traditional X. And those three make a lot of sense together, right? I will say Sterling Shepard, I believe, can be cut next season. And so if you're giving Kaderius Tony a year to sort of learn how to play football, because by the way, he only played wide receiver for one season at Florida. He was like a utility guy through the first three years, which I generally shy away from those kinds of players too. He just has so many red flags in his profile. You can't deny what he can do with the ball in his hands, but that's really tough to translate, to flawlessly translate. You can't just assume you have a tirey kill. You know, I work in probability. I think there's a massive, massive gray area for these guys, but I will say that if there's one player in this first round, one wide receiver who has bust potential, it would be Kaderius Tony. And now that he's going to the New York Giants, I feel even more confident about that. I think the tough thing too is it's not just they took Tony, it's that they didn't address other positions that I feel are of need. And I think the Giants offensive line is an area of need. Andrew Thomas got better as the year went along last year. You know, it was a dumpster fire to start, but things did get better, which you expect for a very young guy left tackle. But even with that, they still rank 30th in my offensive line rankings. That's with Slater coming back too. So like, it's not a good situation for them. And they got rid of Kevin Zeitler. That's a part of the reason why they're so low in these line rankings. I feel like if they were going to address offense, if you're trying to give Daniel Jones a guy who loves taking sacks more than anybody outside of Carson Wentz, if you're going to try to set him up to succeed, give him a good offensive line, they chose not to do that. And that's concerning to me. And like if we're talking, we're updating our wind total projections live throughout the day, I'm not changing my projection of the Giants. They don't think it changes anything, honestly. I just, I don't see how it moves anything. So that's where I'm at. Brandon, does Kaderius, Tony, do anything for you as far, because I know you said receivers don't like moving the needle as much to begin with. No, from what I found, early receivers, this is probably just noise, but actually coincide with a decrease in year over year offensive efficiency. And that offensive, offensive efficiency for this study comes from Number Fires net expected points metric, which is adjusted for opponents faced. So kind of like what we we either see receivers taken in the first round or, you know, early, whenever teams, like if you if you need a quarterback or like a left tackle, you're not really taking wide receivers. And so we typically see receivers either be like game changers, and it doesn't really like it's different, or they're going to a good situation. And that team just naturally might take a step back anyway, because they're drafting based on what they did last year that was typically good. This is not going to bump up the Giants for me at all. If anything, you know, maybe a slight down tick, but you know, I'm with you, I'm not really going to change things for the better. And I've, you know, I do some prospect work a lot of the, a lot of what JJ said, much more passionately than I would. I see a lot of the same stuff. So, you know, maybe if it was a different receiver, but I, you know, Tony doesn't really rate out as someone who I would anticipate being like a day one game changer for the Giants. So a funny tweet I saw from Stephen Ruiz of for the win. Jason Garrett trying to figure out how to use Cadarius Tony should be good for some laughs. Yes, exactly. So JJ, with that in mind, what's your projection for Cadarius Tony in New York? If it matters. Yes. So this year I have Cadarius Tony at three receptions minus 45 years. No, I'm just kidding. I have him at 23 and a half receptions, 285 yards. And I believe I have him at four. I had to edit that was a screw up. It should be like two touchdowns in about two touchdowns. I actually, I actually had an edit with, with the touchdown portion that was attributed from Kenny Galladay to Cadarius Tony, which was not correct. So basically he's going to be like wide receiver 90. I mean, he's not someone that we need to really care about in a redraft league. Like I said, this is a move where they're not thinking about this year. I can guarantee you that I would not expect Cadarius Tony to be anything but a gadget player this year. And so that's kind of how I'm viewing him. Then if you can grow into something, you can grow into something, he has the athleticism. That's, that's for sure. I'm just very concerned about him just being a real wide receiver. This is not like even a Curtis Samuel situation. I think this is, this is even like, like more raw than what we saw at a Curtis Samuel coming out. I should also note that we're getting close to the total on offensive linemen in the first round. The total at Fandola Sportsbook was 18 and a half. We're at 14 through 20 picks and teams that have been rumored for offensive linemen like the Vikings are picking. We've got the Titans who could go wide receiver. The Steelers should go offense in some way. We might get to 18, over 18 and a half by like pick 27. It's going to be, it's a fun night for sure so far. Okay. The Colts pick is in. While we're waiting for that, Ryan, I want to go to you. We have the Giants here with Kenny Galladay, Sterling Shepherd, Darius Slayton, Saquon Barkley, Daniel Jones. But it's also Daniel Jones in a rough offensive line. So are you worried about target distribution with this team given how many mouths are out of feed now? Or do you think that Jones can be good enough to support more mouths in this offense? No, you're exactly right, Jim. That's the first thing I thought about was just, well, damn, where who's the ball going to go to? Because, you know, we, you look at last year, but it's hard to even project because Saquon Barkley gets hurt two weeks since the season, I believe, three weeks since the season. And he's a pass catching back. So this is going to be a pure avoid for me. You know, I was going to be excited about Daniel Jones, potentially late, if they drafted line to protect him. I mean, they don't have any pass blocking whatsoever, you know, to protect this guy. So it makes it really hard to kind of trust this offense in general from anything. I mean, I'm not excited about them from a best ball standpoint at this point, not excited about using them in DFS, not excited about using them in redraft. So it just kind of just sucks because I got like Kenny Galladay, I was very excited when he hit free agency to see where he goes. And it's like he might just go to die. It's rough. It is definitely rough. Quitty pay going 21st overall, the Colts, I was kind of hoping they would have gone with an offensive lineman. They need to have tackled pretty badly with Quinton Nelson sticking at left guard. They decided not to do that. They go Quitty pay and actually had a decent fall for pay. His total at Fandall Sportsbook was 16 and a half. The overall is minus 126. It was juiced up a bit there. He's also minus 115 to be the first defensive lineman taken. That did not happen. And this Colts team is a buzzy one Brandon because they got Carson Wentz. If I'm looking at their projected offensive efficiency next year, I have it going down because Phillip Rivers actually was really efficient. Carson Wentz was not. Now they lose Anthony Costanzo left tackle. I don't have the highest opinion of the Colts. I don't have the highest opinion of anyone in the AFC South personally, like I had the Titans first by default almost. But what do your internal projections say about this Colts team heading into 2021? Yeah, so I do have them taking a step back as well. They're over under on Fox bet is nine and a half, which makes sense. I have them at nine and a half. It feels a little high, but again, I like to make sure that it's not just based on what I'm projecting. So even with that step back in offensive efficiency, I don't think they're going to be bottom tier by any means, although based on what we saw from Carson Wentz, you never know. You know, I'm trying to adjust for expectation, not not overreact to, you know, a smaller sample. So I have them right at nine and a half. I would stay away from that. They got a lot of love last year. I know they were one of the most public teams them in the bills for the over last year, but middling schedule. Like I could kind of go either way. I don't really want to back this offense. I'm just glad you didn't make me talk about them from a DFS standpoint, because that was a nightmare this year. Yeah, outside of Jonathan Taylor, it was a nightmare for sure. But what did you say the juice was on the under at nine and a half? Oh, it's minus 143 in the over. Oh, because I have 8.9. And that might be high enough to tempt me to go with the under there, actually. So for the under, the under is plus 110. Okay. I don't find for that. I don't think that's too bad at all. So I'm actually kind of intrigued by the under for the Colts. And I mean, I think I would have jacked up their projected offensive efficiency a bit. Had they gone left tackle here, I did improve their defensive efficiency, but that doesn't factor in as much because it's harder to predict. So they're at 8.9. And the Titans are number one in the AFC South from me. They are at 9.3 wins. So 0.4 ahead of Indianapolis. The reason I can't feel super good about Tennessee winning the AFC South is that they've lost a lot of really good skill position guys. But JJ, you've been talking on Twitter this week about how they might amend that here with the 22nd overall pick. So what do you see in here with Tennessee at 22? Yeah. So I think that they're in prime position right now to either go Rashad Bateman or Elijah Moore. And I think the pick needs to be Elijah Moore. I tweeted about this earlier in the week that Tennessee is a perfect fit. I plugged in the 22nd overall pick into my model for Elijah Moore. And he actually came out as a 98th percentile wide receiver in my model with that 22 spot draft equity. And the only other wide receivers in my model that were drafted in the 20s, really in the first round. But if you remove the guys who were drafted early in the first round, but the only guys who were drafted in the 20s in the first round since 2006 that had that high of a percentile ranking Des Bryant and Demarius Thomas. So we're sitting in a position right here where if the draft capital is there for Elijah Moore, given his production profile, because pre draft, I don't really look at my model from a pre draft standpoint and say, this is how I'm going to rank these guys because draft capital is an input there. But it's just very, very, you know, you need the draft capital component. But with Elijah Moore pre draft, he actually was the top rated product from a production standpoint, the top rated wide receiver in my model because his production was that insane. So if he goes to Tennessee here where there's no wide receiver to really is Josh Reynolds right now. Yeah. I mean, it's a huge need for them. You have two really good wide receivers and Michelle Bateman and Elijah Moore. I just think that Elijah Moore makes a little bit more sense. And by the way, you would then have another reunion with AJ Brown and Elijah Moore. Can we get DK Metcalf there, too? Or is that not allowed? Probably probably wouldn't be smart. How did how are they not that they won like five games with with DK Metcalf, AJ Brown, Elijah Moore. There are reasons. Who was the quarterback that we used in you and XFL the FS Brandon? Who was it? Oh my goodness. I can't remember the name, but there were reasons also didn't all miss have some recruiting violations. What's that? Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. I don't know if that was man. I wiped XFL from my memory for the best. Good grab. Good. Good grab from the brain. I just really I want this to be Elijah Moore really bad. I even tweeted at the Titans to draft Elijah Moore. I just hope it's him because all of a sudden if it is him, you can make the case for him being honestly, you can make the case for him being the wide receiver to a dynasty. I really, I really think that and the reason that I especially worry about the Titans specifically losing out on playmakers at their past games because Ryan Tane Hill has not always been the most fishing quarterback. They lost their play caller and Arthur Smith. There are multiple paths to this being a disappointing season. So I want to be low on the Titans, but because they're in the AFC South, my, my numbers still wind up liking them kind of by default because like, who else am I going to have graded? Well, they're not Houston, not Jacksonville yet. Indy's tough with Carson Wentz. So it's a tough situation overall. Roderick Adele walking up now, Elijah Moore, just be Elijah Moore. What does have this gift? It makes so much sense. Just like make it easy on me. I already started building it out in my projections. You might have seen it. I might have seen it. Don't tell me, Jim. I need to be. Can you erase it? Is it a wide receiver? Nope. Oh my gosh. Another position to need though, at least. So there's that. Wow. But we'll see what they do here once it's official. This will put the Vikings on the clock after this with a couple of good offensive linemen still lingering. So they are pretty happy about that. We'll see what the Titans do at 24. Roderick Adele getting the photo op. So it's my take of it. Brandon, while they're doing their, their stuff, what do you have on Tennessee's wind total projection? Some actually rerunning things right now. Initially, initially I had them at 9.1, but I did want to bump down their offense a little bit more. It's probably going to change drastically because I'm not going to, you know, take them to. So I bumped them down. I have them at 9.3. 9.3 wins. Yeah. This is a joke. I mean, it was, you know, so they came out at, okay, 9 for me. They're over unders, nine and a half, minus 143 on the under. So, you know, more likely to go under. That's kind of where the bookmakers are leading. So I have about 60% to be under that. So probably would be not, not really inclined to bet that once more. They went with Caleb Farley, the cornerback from Virginia Tech who had a lot of injuries. And there was top 10 buzz, like ESPN and NFL Nation did a mock draft this week where he went eight overall the Panthers. They didn't go corner. They didn't go Caleb Farley though, likely seeming because of the medical stuff. So they do go cornerback and I'm going to bump up there. I know they lost Adory Jackson, but wasn't like the biggest contributor to them last year anyway. And they did add some other guys defensively. They got Bud Dupri to hopefully rush the pass a little bit. So once I add Farley, and they're still at 9.4, but like, I think that their pass defense should be a bit better this year than it was last year, partly because they were so bad. How could they not be? And I think that helps partially offset the losses on offense, but I think that the bigger implication of this and JJ, this kind of ties into what you were saying is I think that there is concern that they didn't address the skill position guys with this pick. Like, again, it kind of comes down to what they could have done instead. And that's where I get worried. Here's my thought on not going wide receiver there. I definitely think they should have, they could have gone Rashad Bateman too, who can play more all over the place. You know, Elijah Moore is, is profiled right now to be a slot guy to start his career. I think he could go down like a Tyler Lockett, you know, career trajectory. But with, with, if they were to go with Rashad Bateman instead, then, you know, he can play on the outside and that would probably fit just as well. The one thing that I will say is this class has a lot of slot guys and they do need that. They lost Adam Humphries. So they don't really have that presence. So they, they realistically could just put Josh Reynolds as their, you know, the other outside across from A.J. Brown, let A.J. Brown gobble up 2,500 targets this year. And then, you know, throwing that, like there's a lot of slot guys. There's like Jalen Darden, who's that, this guy, like a shifty dude from North Texas with a lot of production. There's just, there's slot guys that you could find later in this draft and feel fine about. And the slot is more replaceable. To me though, Elijah Moore has more upside than just being that slot player. Like I said, my, my top comp for Moore is Tyler Lockett. I was really, really hoping that he would go to that offense because I mean, we've seen Tyler Lockett in a run heavy offense throughout his career. And we know that he can be efficient enough to still be fantasy relevant. And that's sort of similar to what we would be seeing then in Tennessee. Okay. So Ryan, J.J. set the over under 2,500 targets for A.J. Brown this year, which upgrades out to like 170 per game over under 170 targets per game for A.J. Brown this year in DFS. It's going to be tough. I'm leaning over, but I'm going to have to take the under there. No, yeah, but you're looking at, I mean, who are we talking about? The Lions with their, their wide receiver core. I mean, definitely atrocious because no A.J. Brown there. But like, I'm looking at this team and it's just like, what is going on with after A.J. Brown? Like who are you throwing out there? The only other guy that I actually trust is Anthony Firks are tied in with this, with this core. I was with J.J. 100%. I thought Elijah Moore just made such a good replacement pick for Corey Davis there with them. But yeah, this is wheels up for A.J. Brown until they do something else that you're talking about slot receivers, J.J. I mean, maybe we see like a guy like a Mari Rogers go later to them. And I would feel good about that. But at this point in time right now, it's all the A.J. Brown with this current situation. And I will say too, I think A.J. Brown deserves to be in the conversation. I mean, he has the wide receiver one ceiling in his range of outcomes this year. And he's like, my projections have met like wide receiver six or something right now and his ADPs probably like six to eight or whatever. But realistically like that, again, the way I approach this is I look for guys who have some sort of ceilings that's not just embedded into their projection in some way. And with A.J. Brown, I have met like a 28% target share. Don't get me wrong. But you know, in an offense that lacks any other real locked in guys, skill guys outside of Derek Henry, obviously, but I'm talking receiver wise. In an offense like that, that's when crazy ceilings can be hit. And I'm talking like 33% target shares like we saw to Michael Thomas a couple of years ago, like we saw out of DeAndre Hopkins when he was in Houston, when Will Fuller would get injured or, you know, where you don't have this competition, that's where ceiling can really get hit. So if there is competition, good wide receivers will see a floor no matter what, when there's no competition, that's when those crazy ceilings, Devonte Adams last year, that's when those ceilings can be hit. Yeah. And another thing too is like, for a while, Jim and I would talk about this like kind of week in week out, Corey Davis was awesome. He was like their wide receiver one, you know, it was like a one A one B, but like Davis had a higher, you know, downfield target share overall target share. So like that's a big piece. So, you know, sometimes you can get a little bit rusty and not really remember how involved Corey Davis was, but it was, you know, it wasn't AJ Brown's offense the entire season. No, I love that point there, Brandon, because I was he was like interchangeable and he would be like $2,000 cheaper than AJ Brown, and you would get those boom weeks from him. And it would be awesome. He'd be like 16% owned in DFS because of AJ Brown just carrying that name, wait, but yeah, he's going like wide receiver, I believe, for right now and best ball, which makes a ton of sense when you're thinking about the given situation. You know, ahead of the Andre Hopkins and Justin Jefferson and McCaff and Ridley. So unless something drastic changes, I think that he's going to stay around that with an ADP of like 18.4 right now. Okay, so we have the Vikings pick in here, they traded down from pick 14 with the Jets and offensive line, definitely a need here for Minnesota, given that they have some some concerns, some question marks on the left side. They do address those by taking Christian Derisaw out of Virginia Tech, 23rd overall, I thought he could have been their pick at 14, honestly. No, he's coming. No, she's coming. It's official. No, no, Ted and Jenkins, man. They get 23rd round picks. They move back 23. They get an upgrade along the offensive line. I think the Vikings played this one really well. So kudos to them. I want to stick with Tennessee for a second here. Ryan, I want to go back to you. Do you worry at all about Derek Henry? Because Derek Henry is a run first running back, which means he's being positive script. And with the lack of skill guys around him, the odd sees in a negative script do increase a bit. Does that worry you at all about Derek Henry? Or is it just Derek Henry and we're good? Jim, all this offseason, we're going to see the workout videos Derek Henry is working on his pass catching ability. So I mean, if he can add that facet to his game, that would be and it's not even like I don't think Derek Henry is he's not a pass catching back, so to speak, but I don't think he has terrible hands. They just don't target him. They don't they don't design anything for him. But there might be a situation here where Derek Henry is going to need five or six targets a game to move the ball. He's getting to that point where the wear and tear does start to worry. But man, I've been so down on Derek Henry year after year after year. He keeps just breaking the mold. You got to talk to Brandon about this because I wouldn't know anything about fading Derek Henry at all. It was on the wrong side of week six. I was I was not I was not on the right side, but I was you know, it was it was rough for sure. It worked for about four and a half quarters. Yeah, four and a half quarters and then overtime happened. It wasn't good. Yes, but he's a great DFS target when he's not popular. The Colts game was perfect because no one was on him there. Projected tag game script. They're not going to fall behind. I wouldn't think there. It was the perfect scenario to use Derek Henry. And like a lot of times on stretcher was too, but like that that game especially goes to what you said where he was not that popular web berserk, which is always within his range of outcomes. Yes. Okay, JJ, the Steelers pick is in pick 24. You have the Steelers to take a running back plus 125. That is our final bet I lost. Brandon was right. Ryan was right. I suck. So we'll see if we go three for one or three for four with me, the lone anchor on the lineup, you stick with Najee here. Yeah, I think it's going to be Najee. I mean, like I said at the top, you know, all these Pittsburgh media people have been saying it's likely going to be Najee. You know, Kevin Colbert came out and said that he doesn't really believe in positional value. And you know, if a player is good, a player is good, that kind of mentality a very Dave Gettelman like mentality. It's just it's mind blowing to me that that people in those positions can think that way because I don't think it's logical at all how you don't look at positional importance first and have that layer at least before you dig in. They need running back. They definitely need a running back. I think that like, let me put it this way. The Steelers do likely you should try to get one of the big three running backs because they don't have anything on their depth chart right now. And it makes sense. Like I get it. My frustration and I don't really care that much from a Steelers fandom standpoint. Like, yeah, I grew up loving the Steelers. It's not really there anymore. The way it used to be. I just don't like the journey they took because this this this should have been seen. They should have known that this was happening. Let me just see what they do here though. All right. Pick 24 Steelers. Najee Harris over under was 24 and a half minus 110 on the both ways. He is the pick. So Najee Harris goes to Pittsburgh. JJ has left us and I guess the three of us. So JJ wins his bet. But it's a first round running back. I lose. I suck. So why am I here? Najee Harris goes to Pittsburgh. JJ your reaction to that. I mean, I got up for a reason. It's just like it's it's not logical. It's not logical. The Steelers have so many holes across the offensive line. Jim, I think you might have had them ranked as the 32nd offensive line in the league. I moved it because the Dolphins traded Eric Eric Flowers. So it pulls up here. They are they're actually 29th. I had something. They're bad. The offensive line is bad. They're bad. The offensive line is bad. So bad in fact that last season they had to tailor their passing offense also to this bad offensive line, which was a key reason why Deontay Johnson had this low a dot and they kept throwing these quick slants because they had to make up for this horrendous offensive line. Now Ben Rothenberger wasn't perfect. I'm not not not blaming him, but the offensive line was terrible. They got no push for their running backs. It's just a bad pick to think that Najee Harris that a running back is going to transform this backfield and this team and make them be able to run the football well. Like is it in their range of outcomes? Sure. And when Najee Harris, let me just put it on the record. Najee Harris will put up numbers. He's going to put up numbers. He will produce because he's going to see a lot of work in that backfield. I'm going to make his projection here in a second and I'm sure he's going to be like a low end RB one or a high end RB two. That's not the argument against this. The argument against this is what you could have had otherwise and what that production could have looked like with a more replacement level running back in that backfield and getting that kind of volume instead of Najee Harris. Now, I don't think it's as bad as some other first round running back picks that we've seen in the Pat Reese industry. This is 24 overall. It's different than Seyquan Barclay. It's different Seyquan Barclay. It's different than even like to me, it's it's different than even what we saw with like Rashad Penney and Josh Jacobs. Like Josh Jacobs didn't really make that much sense. They weren't a win now team. They just had an extra. You know, it was their third first round picks. They were like, sure, we'll get this running back at least for Pittsburgh. They have an absolutely horrendous depth chart. And this is a shallow class where they likely weren't going to be able to get one of these big three backs. So I can at least understand the logic. I just don't think I think that they would have been way better off by going online here and a month ago, signing Leonard for net or something, like getting it, getting just a bigger body guy who can carry the workload and be maybe averaged to above average and then see if a guy like Trey sermon falls in this draft to them and then get a guy like sermon as well. But this is obviously the direction they went in. I'm going to make a projection. He's going to look good to my projections. That doesn't mean that he was a good real NFL pick. I think you misspoke. It's it's Lombardi Lenny. He's not Leonard Ford. Sorry. Sorry about that by the proper name. Yes. Brandon, I had a pretty drastic change with Pittsburgh and my wind total projections. They went from 8.6 to 8.6 with Najia Harris being the pick. Where are you out on Pittsburgh right now? Yeah. So again, you know, when I looked into stuff over the past 10 years, I guess with nine years, you do see like offenses improve when they take a running back early, but this doesn't really feel like one of those situations where it has happened 64% of time. It doesn't really feel like this is something that's going to make them significantly better. They might increase a little bit. They weren't a bad offense by any means. But yeah, for me, I'm not really going to make much of an adjustment there. They are an eight and a half win team according to Fox bet with minus 125 on the over. I have them at nine wins. It was a little high, you know, based on my expectations, I figured they would be closer to that eight and a half. But, you know, if you look at their schedule, I have them with the toughest schedule in the NFL. But I just added this on the fly. But they have eight games projected to be within three points either way. I use a two-point home field advantage. So, you know, it's kind of a lot. Could kind of kind of go either way. But even though my simulations say over, you know, I think it's a no bet. It's no bet to me. Pretty easily. Ryan, we have Najee Harris now. He goes to Pittsburgh. Like JJ said, probably going to get a lot of work. Where do you think Najee Harris shakes out in the best ball ADP once we have the dust settling here after the draft? Do you think that he will go appropriately or are you worried about him being overvalued with his new team? I'm worried about him being overvalued right now. I think he's going at the running back 19 spot before this started. So, I could see people talking themselves into taking him, you know, closer to a running back one or, you know, first in the running back two scenarios because of this landing spot. Just being the Steelers and how they how running backs produce, you know, under this regime, so to speak. So, he's in a good spot. And listen, the thing that worries me about Najee Harris is that he had one of the best O-lines in college and now goes to, he does not. It's often 20 college might have been better than the one he is now. Exactly. A lot better. The 29th, as you said. So, and, you know, the Castro could be gone next year. So, it's going to be real tough for him potentially. But, you know, he is a otherworldly back. I think that he, you know, definitely does make some sense as long as Ben Rothesberger is still there. As we've seen, you know, even with him getting older, he can do some things with the football when he's on. So, you know, hopefully they can address something on the line, you know, maybe later on and try and get this figured out. I still like getting him. Where he is right now is fair. I think later on in the summer, once the dust settles down after the draft, I think he'll go back to maybe being closer to the 19 range in some drafts. And that's when you can feel comfortable about it. But right now, if you're studying best balls, you know, next week and excited for them, I think that Najé will go way overdrafted than he needs to be. So, RB 19 sounds like the pre-draft ADP. JJ, where do you have Najé Harris settling out in your projections? Yeah. So, I have it a little bit conservative. You know, I'm not, I don't think that he's going to be projected to be an RB one. And you have to keep in mind that when you go into a season, we're working with perfect information where all these running backs are healthy, right? And so, there's a lot of good running backs actually out there, just that guys get hurt, et cetera, et cetera. My fear with Najé is that the Steelers in neutral game scripts over the last seven years have been very past heavy. And I don't know if that changes dramatically. It's going to change to some degree with Najé. But I, you know, we see natural regression with defenses every year. And that's likely going to happen with Pittsburgh. They're probably not going to be as good defensively as they were last year. So, that could put them in worse spots. You know, Brandon mentioned the schedule. So, there's reasons to believe that Pittsburgh won't be as strong. So, they won't see these like awesome positive game scripts for a player like Najé Harris. So, my projection right now has him at 1,012 yards, about 10 touchdowns on the ground, 40 receptions, 300, because he is a good pass catcher too. Everyone thinks he's kind of like a bruiser, but he did a lot of good stuff through the air at Alabama. 319 receiving yards, one and a half touchdowns through the air. Positional rank right now, I have met RB-18. So, right smack dab in the middle of that RB-2 range, which I think is fair right now. Like I understand that the ceiling could potentially be there, but I'm still giving him a 59% rush share in this projection. I'm still giving him an 8.5% target share. You know, if there's more to that as we, you know, move through the summer, I do think there's more of a ceiling than what his projection is showing right now. But, you know, from a projection standpoint right now, draft night day one, that's where Najé Harris is at. So, we have the 25th pick in for the Jacksonville Jaguar. It's a very important time because Trevor Lawrence's brother Chase is, oh, the Jaguar is from Travis Etn. Oh, okay. So, James Robinson gone. Chase Lawrence, as you can see on the screen here, loving his life. He is someone who does not have James Robinson on his dynasty. I got to say, I got to say, guys, I traded James Robinson for a first like a month ago in the Dynasty League and I'm loving life right now. Oh my God. I'm loving life right now. That's amazing. But we also get Trevor Lawrence reunited with Travis Etn, which is great. That's fun. You know, we're not going to be jumping up and down for a first round running back, but I love a good story. Travis Etn, fun player. I would say a guy who can potentially actually increase your offensive passing efficiency a tiny bit. So, you know, it's kind of fun. JJ, what did your model say about Etn coming into the draft? Like him a lot. You know, he's part of the big three after his weigh-in actually, because he weighed in. He drank a ton of water clearly before he weighed in and he weighed in at 215 instead of like the 205-ish 210 that he played at. So, he weighed in at 215 and that's the objective measure that I have to use my model and my model cares about BMI or running back. So, when he weighed in there, he actually became the RB1 in my model pre-draft. You know, landing in Jacksonville versus Najee and Pittsburgh, you know, since it was so close between those two backs, I actually had Najee as my RB1 pre-draft rankings wise. You know, I'm still going to have Najee RB1, but you know, Etn's RB2. And I think, you know, what we're seeing here is James Robinson is not a thing. And this is something that I really, I mean, I'm not just saying this in hindsight. I've been talking about this throughout my podcast literally all off season where we have to recognize that with new coaching staffs and with the fact that coaches are the ones who are throwing running backs on the field. And you hope that the best, most talented running backs, you know, rise depth charts. But at the same time, James Robinson, who I loved as a prospect, I thought he should have been drafted, you know, I gobbled him up everywhere last year. Again, I'm sounding like I'm just patting myself on the back, but I'm letting you know that I like James Robinson. But when you have all of these changes going on to an organization, you have to fear that a UDFA at running back, despite the fact that he did as well as he did, is going to see some competition of some sort. Right. And so I thought that maybe they would get like a Kenneth Gainwell, like a pass catcher on the team to compliment James Robinson. But they, they did get a pass catcher, but they also got a guy who could carry the ball 200 plus times as well and Travis Etn. So James Robinson stock way, way down, Travis Etn's fairly strong, you know, pretty good. I don't think it'll be Najee Harris like, but I'll make a projection now and we'll see what happens. Yeah. I mean, the reunion tour continues too, because the Clemson guys back together as well. Ryan, you were talking about about James Robinson before and this offense being kind of fun for DFS. And I think the fun thing about about Etn specifically is that he's going to catch passes, which means either the Jaguars fall behind, he's still going to be involved. So what are your thoughts on Etn going to Jacksonville from a DFS perspective? Yeah, I like it. I mean, you know, we're talking about draft capital and landing spots. And so we got to believe that this guy's going to be on the field and going to make life a little bit easier for Lawrence having played together for the years now and then being reunited at the NFL level. So I think that he's going to get work, you know, right out of the gate. James Robinson, when we're talking about best ball here, this guy's ADP was around 31, I want to say. So that is just shot for anybody who took James Robinson prior to this. And I believe Etn was going as RB 21, if I'm not mistaken, in best balls. And so you got to feel good about that. They're probably teams that have both. Sure, right? Yes, definitely. And not even knowing what the situation was going to be. But yeah, from a DFS standpoint, especially, you got to think like rookie running backs too, they're real cheap to start the season. So we could get, you know, a good deal on Etn to start the season. I'm into it. I'm into it. I like it for sure. Should be a lot of fun. The Browns, their pick is in right now. They I believe had Greg Newsom and a lot of the mock drafts going to them pull up the mock drafts here for Cleveland. Actually, that Jamie and Davis, who's gone and Christian Barmore, Christian Barmore could be the guy they cut Sheldon Richardson, but we'll see what they wind up doing. But Etn's pretty fun. I think I can definitely get behind this. Jim, what's her line look like? Did you talk about that? It's not. It's like, it's like a bunch of okay guys. Like that's that that's the best way I'd phrase it. Like there's no one who's a dumpster fire. No one who's great. 20 second to me. Okay. So yeah, I mean, I started bouncing things off of you when it comes to offensive line. JJ, what do your projections say about Etn? Yeah, my TV just went out. I'm trying to figure that out. So so Etn I have 8888 rushing yards, 4.8 rushing touchdowns, 55 and a half receptions for 423 receiving yards, two receiving touchdowns. That gives them a positional rank right now of RB 22. That sounds a lot like Deandre Swift. That is my comp actually for Travis Etn is Deandre Swift. That's that's the kind of role that I think I haven't for a 12% target share in this offense. I think that's the kind of role that he's going to play for Jacksonville. Yeah, I think that that makes a lot of sense. And Etn, I know like again, we're not supposed to get super jacked about running backs in the first round, but Etn's fun. I think I can get more excited about him than other ones. Bethany Peter says the ice bath narrative lives. Love it. There's a lot of there's a lot of school connections in this draft, I feel like. Okay, so who are some Oklahoma guys and get a baker? We'll figure that out and see what we can work with there. But the pick is in for the Browns. Could use some past defense help. And they go, Greg Newsom, go cats, baby, two Northwestern Wildcats in the first round, Greg Newsom, the cornerback. And when I was making my win projections for Cleveland, the big, like if I have, uh, with conditional formatting, because I have to, there's no obligation to give a spreadsheet. Yes, be conditionally formatted. The only like big red marks for Cleveland are past defense. They were really bad there last year. Part of that's because you had the injuries, Sidenza, Warden, greedy Williams, and a great Delpit as well. But now you add some great help at safety in free agency. You add Greg Newsom, just an absolute burner who was awesome in the big 10 as always. And I feel like that's actually a reasonable way to address a thing that I deemed to be a negative for them last year. So I had Greg Newsom into this defense and change the past defense. The wind tunnel projection stays the same, but it actually is decently high at 9.3. That's what I have for Cleveland right now. Brandon, I'm guessing that's probably in line with Fox, but I would guess they're not a nine and a half type team. Is that correct? Exactly. Okay. With minus 143 on the over. But I'm with you exactly over then, which stinks. Yeah, I'm with you. The 9.3 wins is what I got for me. So 56% likely to hit the under not enough to really want to go after that a lot, but they do have the 30 easiest schedule now. This is all adjusting. I think I said someone else had the 30 easiest schedule, but it all adjusts throughout. But they should be favorite in 12 games, which is pretty substantial. And just five three point game project, three point games projected. So maybe some some easier wins for Cleveland, which makes sense with the juice on the over, but I'm thinking with you, 10 wins. Yeah, I'm probably not there yet. No, I can't I can't bet the over, but I think I buy into the hype around the total there. Like I think that that's a very fair number is the way I phrase it. So not going to the over, not going to the under either. And I think that's worth saying when it would not in the half is a big number. And if I'm not going towards the under there, I think that does say a lot. Now, Ryan, they're kind of running it back here because Jarvis Landry is there. We've got Odell Beckham coming back. Nick Chubb is there. Cream Hunt is there. It is a lot of mouths, but it's also a lot of fun. We saw Baker may feel get better down the stretch last year. So what's your view of this Browns offense heading in 2021? Draft Nick Chubb everywhere because it's so tough to trust Baker. But no, it should be fun. I mean, listen, they definitely see a window of opportunity. I think in the in the division that they're in, I think they believe that they can compete. So it's going to be exciting to even see what this offense can do with Odell Beckham. I mean, Odell Beckham, people are, you know, treating him like he's done, you know, and I think being able to scoop him up late in some best balls makes makes a ton of sense. Jarvis Landry was dealing with some injuries, so to speak. And outside of that, the wide receivers, there's no real competition for him at all. But I do think that it starts, you know, especially with Stefanski being there. It starts and ends with the running back situation. So I love getting Nick Chubb as a part of this offense and what they're doing because as when the defense gets better, that means that they're going to have, you know, more possessions and that's going to lead to them just being able to take control of the football more. And that was the concern with Nick Chubb was that they would fall behind and Cream Hunt would take away some of the passing game work. And obviously Cleveland fans, including a fan to his own Gab Gowdy or Gabby Gowdy, very excited about Greg Newsom going to Cleveland. Always love to see that for sure. Brown's fans, Northwestern fans lockstep on this one as well. JJ, let's go to you. I always had issues with Nick Chubb because of the split with Cream Hunt. I will say, though, that down the stretch last year, I'm not sure if this is because they needed to win games. They were more willing to commit more to Nick Chubb, but I became much more willing to go towards Nick Chubb because it seemed like they were using it more in the passing game, which is just, it's huge for his projection. But now you will add Oda Beckham. What is your view of Chubb heading in 2021? I mean, you're really hoping for, you know, Derek Henry, I should say this, I'm saying you're hoping for Derek Henry, but Nick Chubb kind of is a Derek Henry type running back where the efficiency is going to be there. He'll probably see goal line rushes. I know there were times last year where they just decided to use Cream Hunt a lot at the goal line, which was obnoxious. But, you know, like you said, Jim, it slowly became more and more Chubb's backfield as, as a, you know, he came back from that injury. Right now, my projections have him at RB nine. So he's right there. That's actually higher than I would have. Like if you'd give me an over under, I would have said it was higher than I expected to whenever I saw it. But again, this is, this is assuming, you know, he's able to play 17 games, you know, those kinds of running backs, maybe he's not able to because he's going to carry a bigger workload than some of the more receiving backs. But, and that's only with like 22 receptions. So like he's sitting there with like a 13 rushing touchdown projection because again, extra game, it's a run heavy scheme. It should be an effective scheme. So I'm cool with him. I like him more probably in best ball a little bit just because you're not getting that receiving floor each week. But yeah, he's good. I'm sweating this Ravens pick right now like crazy because I do not want them to get a wide receiver. So I want them to get Tevin Jenkins. I've said Tevin Jenkins for six or so different teams by now and it hasn't happened. So I should probably give up, but they did just trade away Orlando Brown, Orlando, I almost said Orlando Bloom, Orlando Brown Jr. to the Kinston and cheese last week, which gives them an additional first round pick. They can go wide receiver and offensive line and JJ we saw. I think I saw a lot of a shot Bateman ties to Baltimore early on that became terrorist Marshall, but now a terrorist Marshall's medical concerns. Those seem to have gone down a bit. So what are you thinking here with with ball? No, they showed Elijah Moore. I know I don't need this in my life. This is this is so I went on a rant on the late round podcast that published today talking about why landing spot at the outliers does matter. And with Lamar Jackson being the starter for Baltimore for the next three years or plus, right? Like you would, you would assume from you safely could project them to be the starter for the next three years or so they're going to still be a run heavy team. Like we can say, Oh, they'll add a wide receiver. So they're going to be more past heavy. Number one, why they've been a top 10 offense both the last two years and number two, Jim's, Jim's giving me a smirk. Like they went with a wide receiver. Here we go. They're picking right now. Sorry. Did they really just know, but it's, it's, it's got to be Bateman. Yeah. So they showed Rashad Bateman's like his, his watch party. There was someone there and a Carson Wentz Eagles Jersey. I feel like the NFL should have given Rashad Bateman like an advance on his first paycheck so that they wouldn't have to wear the, the Carson Wentz Eagles Jersey. Like get him like a Kirk Cousins Jersey. I don't know. He's in Minnesota. Like let's, let's get something other than Carson Wentz on at least the, uh, the over five or over four and a half wide receivers just hit. True. There is that. Okay. Like, so, so before I get to the projection and stuff, we know they're going to be a run heavy team. John Harbaugh has come out and said, we are going to, we're not going to change our offense because Kurt Warner says we should change our offense on NFL network. You know, they're going to probably be a little bit more past heavy, but they don't change their offense, but you teams don't change their offense so drastically based on one player. Now everyone's going to sit here and say, well, what about Josh Allen and the bills last year? They got Stefan Diggs and they became this past heavy team. Sure. But the bills were not doing what the Ravens are doing right now before last year happened. Sure. They were run heavy and they also saw the biggest jump in quarterback efficiency that we've really ever seen in NFL history. So it's not a comparable situation to me at all. Like if you have Lamar Jackson, you're not going to ask him to drop back to pass, you know, at a middle of the road rate in the NFL, you're going to want him to use his legs and gain expected points, gain points. I shouldn't be that nerdy while talking about this, but gaining points with his legs and being efficient with his legs because that's been effective for Baltimore. So it doesn't make any sense to me to not ding a wide receiver in this case for shot Bateman, who was my wide receiver to entering this draft. Now, depending on landing spots, he could easily fall to my wide receiver six or so. And I know people are going to say, I'm sorry, I'm ranting so much. But like people will sit, people have said, you know, well, AJ Brown a couple of years ago, everyone dinged him in his situation. Number one, AJ Brown in hindsight hit, right? We know that AJ Brown is a top five to 10 wide receiver in this league. And so AJ Brown hits. If I were to know for a fact that Rashad Bateman would be AJ Brown, yeah, he would be probably my wide receiver one in this class. Right. And so we have that information now. And then on top of that, you know, when AJ Brown went to Tennessee, Marcus Marriota, Jim's boy was quarterback. How dare you? We knew that I will mute you. I don't know if I can, but I'll try. We knew that a change could happen, right. And it did happen. But instead of that change, that ambiguity being a plus for AJ Brown, it was a knock, understandably so. But the quarterback situation is not changing in Baltimore. We're going to have this situation likely in the foreseeable future. And that's why landing spot can and will and should matter for Rashad Bateman. I'm going to make his projection. It's probably going to look like crap. But that's my that's my rant. Well, I think the good thing is that it benefits Lamar Jackson to have Rashad Bateman there because that's a separate issue. It increases his projected offensive passing efficiency. And Ryan, we like Lamar Jackson and DFS when he's throwing to Willie Snead. Now he gets to throw to Marquis Brown, Rashad Bateman, Mark Andrews and Sandy Watkins. I feel like even though it's a bad landing spot for Rashad Bateman, Lamar Jackson is a winner in this dynamic. Yes, absolutely. 100% he is. And so, you know, you're looking at a guy who's, you know, the passing numbers aren't great, but he's going to be explosive on the run. And he's going to make, you know, life harder on DFS to come after him. And so, Rashad Bateman gets open. That's just going to be even better. I mean, surround this guy with weapons. That's what we've been begging for, you know, instead of running out Willie Snead and Nick Boyle and two tight insets with Mark Andrews, like give him somebody who's dynamic. It's going to be tough. It's going to be tough to trust this offense outside of Lamar Jackson. I mean, the running back situation can't trust it because Lamar is there. Wide receivers can't trust it because Lamar didn't necessarily can't throw, but he's a dynamic enough player where now that he has another surefire weapon on the outside that he can trust, I think this even furthers his upside ability when we're talking about DFS. Well, I'm glad that you mentioned running back too because I felt like I was going insane last year because everyone loved JK Dobbins. I didn't. I could never really talk myself into it because the targets weren't there and targets are so big for DFS. I felt like I was just going nuts because everyone liked him so much and I just couldn't quite get there. Brandon, I know you were in that same boat as well. I want to talk to you about wind projections though because Baltimore, I think gets a boost up because again, he's not throwing to Willie Snead anymore. They get Kevin Zitler along the offensive line as well. They did lose Orlando Brown, but they could address that here in a couple of picks. So I actually have Baltimore at 9.8. That might be under their total because they're probably pretty high, but I don't want to bet the under regardless. You've been at 9.8 wins? Yeah. Yeah, that's under. By a lot? Yeah, it's 11.5. Oh. The under is minus 143, but it's a pretty substantial gap. 11.5 is big. Yeah, it does feel big, even with that extra game. Where do you have them? I have them. So they have a bottom five schedule, not a whole lot of close games. I have them with a really good offense, obviously. And I scale back defense to the league average, but they'll give them a better defense overall. And so for me, they did come out at 11.5, which was really surprising to me. But again, a big part of that is going to be factored into the bookmakers like them to the point where they've got good super boards, high win total. That's not the whole equation. I'm not just trying to match that, but I use that to make sure that I'm not completely off base with my assumptions. So I was surprised to see them match that 11.5. But again, with the schedule being what it is, it makes some sense. And again, if I was projecting a team, when I'm manually adjusting things, if I see a very efficient offense and a defense that we should probably assume is not good in a flukey sense, it's the best combination for me. So again, a little high, but that's where I am. I'm confused why I'm so far from the number on this one, because I have them as the eighth best offense and sixth best defense. And somehow I wind up way under the total. It's weird. Right. Like they're one of the few teams that I feel good about saying, look, their offense is not going to be terrible, even though they're a run heavy team. And that's not usually what we look for with efficiency. But they are an outlier. They run the ball efficiently. And we're not against, like when we talk about this on the heat check, we're not against teams that run the ball. Right. We're just against teams that run the ball very inefficiently. So that's the difference. Like LeGarret Blunt is different than Lamar Jackson slash JK Dobbins. Right. So yeah, I mean, it's surprising to me to find that we're rating them similarly, but that you do project them differently. So it might have a lot to do with how you project their schedule on the teams that they play. I'll dig into it overnight to see why, because I feel I'm confused by that. The Saints are the defensive linemen. Peyton Turner, a guy that Adam Schafer tweeted about this morning. If Adam Schafer tweets about it, I know like the Mack Jones thing happened. But again, if Adam Schafer tweets it, you should believe him. But that's a defensive guy. So JJ, let's go back to you. Let's talk about this projection here for Rashad Bateman. With the Ravens, what do you see him doing in a run first offense? Yeah. So I mean, look, I gave the Ravens a little bit of a bump from a pass to rush ratio standpoint. It wasn't overly significant. They're still an under, you know, they're still going to run the ball more than they'll throw it this year, because they've done over the last two years, but it's more aggressive towards throwing than it has been over the last two years. So at least take solace in that. And then I gave him a pretty aggressive target share number only because, you know, I want to see what that, you know, this is with an 18% target share, which is a pretty strong number for a rookie. And that's within an offense with Mark Andrews, Mark East Brown. Mark East Brown takes a hit from this. You know, it's really tough to buy into Brown in general, just because, you know, we saw him last season have a 35% target share down the stretch and he still didn't give you a single wide receiver one performance, but projection wise, Rashad Bateman 54 catches 677 yards, five and a half touchdowns. Again, this is six or this is 17 games. He's wide receiver 55 for me. And that's with a fairly aggressive target share number. That's with, you know, me assuming that he's going to be the number two target behind or number three, I guess if you count Andrews too, but, you know, Hollywood seeing a little bit more volume and then him seeing significantly more than Sammy Watkins, who's now in Baltimore too. So to me, I just don't see the ceiling. I think that that he'll give you spiked weeks and he's a very good wide receiver who can line up all over the field. He was my wide receiver to pre draft, but it's very, very hard for me to see him have like a true wide receiver one ceiling in that offense. I just don't think it's possible in that offense. So JJ Packers pick is in. How excited would you be if it were Elijah Moore, cybernetically? Yeah, I mean, or Terris Marshall or Rondale Moore. I mean, if they want to go Rondale, I mean, I think Elijah Moore is an obvious, obvious pick here because he can, like I said, he can play the slot. They have a slot need right away. You know, you could still throw MVS out there or Alan Lazare to stretch the field and then have Devonte Adams play the X and then you can get Elijah Moore to play a little bit more on the outside when Devonte Adams goes in line. I think Elijah Moore would make a ton of sense to Green Bay and it would totally redeem the fact that Rashad Bateman just went to the freaking Baltimore Ravens. Well, we'll see what happens here with the Packers. We'll see if Aaron Rodgers can be appeased because there was a lot of buzz earlier today that Rodgers maybe wants to be traded by the Green Bay Packers. Maybe this is not going to happen, but maybe they go quarterback. They're not going to quarterback, but pick 29 here for Green Bay. We'll see how things shake out. We do have just a couple of picks left in this draft for tonight. Again, we're back here tomorrow at 7 p.m. Eastern, Fandle, YouTube, Twitch, Facebook, and Twitter, 7 p.m. for rounds two and three. A lot of impactful stuff is happening then. We'll have plenty of time to discuss how we're seeing things shake out from a dynasty ranking perspective. We talked about the quarterbacks before. JJ, we know the landing spots for ETN and Harris. Just those two not counting the wide receivers. I'll give you more time to formulate that. How would you rank ETN and Harris for dynasty right now between the two of them? I'm going to go Harris and then ETN, I think. You're going to get more immediate impact and more of an immediate ceiling probably with Najee Harris. I liked Harris more as a prospect beforehand before the draft, even though my model did give ETN the slight edge. It really wasn't that significant or meaningful. I would go Najee over ETN. Here comes the Packers pick. I think Greenback could go wide receiver here. They could also go corner because they clearly had some issues at corner. Elsie just loves sticking it to Aaron Rodgers and Harris. Yeah. We'll see what they do. Gidele is announcing the pick right now. We'll see if Aaron Rodgers is a happy man. It would be nice if it was Elijah Moore, but I don't think it's going to be. Eric Rodgers is not a happy man. It's Eric Stokes, the cornerback out of Virginia. It is an impact position, which is good because drafting a backup cornerback and a backup running back last year, the first couple of picks, not exactly making the biggest impact there. Let's put this in here for a enough greater cornerback for them. This is before the Aaron Rodgers stuff. This is a similar Aaron Rodgers plays, all 16 games for Green Bay. Brandon, this is where I actually do find a pretty high wind total projection. I have 11.6 for Green Bay. Where are you at with them? Yeah, so they're a 10.5 wind team according to FoxBat minus 143 in the over. I have them at 10.7 winds. Not a whole lot in the division that is rating out super tough overall. That was before Justin Fields was there, baby. It's true, but one of the eight easiest schedules in the league should be favored in 14 of their games. Only four games rating out to be close, like within a field goal either way. So schedule rates out pretty well. I think there's still a lot to like. Again, the teams with projectable good offenses that just flow through a good quarterback, those are the teams that I feel most confident in. And that's what we have. Obviously, we need to get Aaron Rodgers gruntled, but at this point, assuming he's there, they should be a pretty solid team. Yes, we'll assume that he's there. And Ryan, that means that the Packers did not add a wide receiver. So we have Aaron Jones, Devonte Adams, Robert Tungian, Alan Lazard, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, all kind of still seeing it. I don't know. Devin Funches is coming next year. I don't know. I haven't read much about him. Is he still in the NFL? I mean, he opted out last year to sign with the Green Bay. So it's allegedly in theory, sure. But they were fun for DFS last year. I feel like we kind of have to be high on them once again this year, right? Yeah. And hopefully we get a non-disgruntled Aaron Rodgers that can throw these guys the ball, but it doesn't matter. I mean, you pay up for Devonte Adams in DFS. People always try to argue that it doesn't matter. I mean, his target share is absolutely through the roof. And if they don't do anything to help them out, I would imagine they have to on day two to get somebody in there. But then even then, it's like, it's going to be Devonte Adams and then Lazard and VS and Tungian. So you got to love that upside in. And I guess Aaron Jones, to a certain extent, being back there. But I just think it's Devonte Adams is the alpha in this offense. And this once again proves that they haven't taken a wide receiver since Javon Walker in the first round. I believe that was 2002 when they did that. Man, remember Javon Walker? You know what's funny? So a little story here. I have a jersey collection. Right now, I'm going through a move in my house. I have a jersey. Jim, you knew this. I have like 70 jerseys. I do have like random college shirts. I have a jersey collection. And I was going through it the other day because I'm moving soon over the next month. And I have a Javon Walker jersey, but a Broncos jersey. Remember, he went to the Broncos. Oh, yeah. Yeah. I have a San Antonio Homes Jets jersey. Does that count? That's pretty obscure. It's not. It's not great. It's not great at all. I was going to say I have a real quick as the Buffalo pick is coming in. I have a Patrick Mahomes Bears jersey. Oh, no. From a fantasy. I won my fantasy league and with my buddies. And the point is to get a jersey for the winner that relates somehow. It could be good or bad, but just relates to them. So you don't know what's coming. So I get my jersey. I was under. I was for sure that I was getting Cody Parky. Like I was just going to open it up and see Cody Parky. And I opened up and I see it. So Mahomes Bears jersey. You said you don't have season tickets. Do you wear that to the stadium? So we actually got the season tickets from my future father-in-law last year. COVID year was supposed to be the first year. So there was a debate on whether we re-up them. And I'm like, you know what? Let's just re-up them. This was around the Russell Wilson thing. I was like, if we don't go and we sell them, it's fine. I think Justin Fields is. So we had to do these draft videos for FanDuel Twitter. My top comment for Justin Fields was Russell Wilson. So you kind of get the same thing. There we go. And younger. Yeah. And younger maybe. Rookie deal. Rookie deal. Again, disgruntled, less disgruntled than Russ. Maybe a chip on his shoulder. More gruntled. More gruntled. Thank you, Michael. Yes. But I think that worthwhile to trip out to Soldier Field. Absolutely. Absolutely. I had my most obscure jersey though because I'm a big obscure jersey fan. I have a Selvin Young jersey. Do you remember him? He was a running back for the Broncos in like the 2000s. I do. Yeah. I have a lot of Broncos jerseys you got, JJ. I have. I guess it's those two. Hey, Broncos guy. Apparently. I'm a big Lions guy. But do you have a bunch of Broncos jerseys, but none of them are Nosha Moreno? You're messing it up. True. True. By the way, do you think there's a chance Buffalo goes Javante here? I think there's a possibility, but I have a lot of respect for their front office. So if I mean, They were tied. They were tied to like ETN. Which is different. I get it, but. But if I had to pick yes or no, I'd say. I'd probably lean no. But I'd give it like a 5 to 10 percent chance. Oh, yeah. For more than 5 to 10, because it's such a glaring need for them at running back. Like teams, we talk about how running backs don't matter. But we talked about the exception to that is when you have really bad production. Devon Singletary wasn't great last year. Here we go. Okay. So the pick is in for the Bills at pick number 30 here in the first round. And they went Gregory Russo. The defensive end out of Miami opted out and Jalen Phillips got a lot of production there. So Russo, I think had a really bad pro day as well. Falls to pick 30 and goes to Buffalo. So Buffalo does not go to Javante Williams. And he's actually on the board for Tip Bay at 32 because Baltimore is not going to take him. What if Baltimore gets Elijah Moore here? Do you know how? Do you know how? I mean, I have a lot of like back end in the first round rookie picks in Superflex this year, not because I was good because I traded for them. I would be a little mad too, because like that's where these guys might wind up going. And like that lowers the value of that pick if we get two guys in low volume passing often. I was really hoping like, I don't mind because I wasn't likely going to draft much Cadarius Tony, even though here's the thing too, just a little like tip or like thing that I try to factor in with my dynasty stuff. You have to recognize that if you're working off of ADP or if you're looking at other analysts and how they're ranking guys, the fantasy football community is numbers driven, is analytically driven. So Cadarius Tony, despite having this first round draft capital projection was still being labeled as like the wide receiver nine in this class by different dynasty sites and different rankings and stuff like that. So you really were never gaining this like massive edge by saying, oh, I'm fading Cadarius Tony because you were never really spending much to get Cadarius Tony anyway. And so that's why I sort of, you have to always factor that in but I likely still wasn't going to get Tony based on the stuff that I talked about earlier. It's nice that Tony went to a place where, you don't have to like feel like you need to get them based on the situation. I was kind of hoping that would happen. And him going to like Baltimore and be really easy to fade them. But then obviously Bateman goes there but if they burn two wide receivers. They're going to have in Jenkins. If it doesn't work the first six times, try, try again. So I say to have in Jenkins goes 31 to Baltimore. They trade Orlando Brown, Jr. They fill that gap right away with having Jenkins who would be the second bespectacled offensive alignment to go in the first round because we're Sean Slater glasses guy, Tevin Jenkins glasses guy. We're pro glasses here on the stream. So I feel like as a, as a collective, we should manifest Tevin Jenkins to the Baltimore Ravens. If we can make that work, I'll be very good. So we're getting towards the end of this first round here. Again, we're back in tomorrow. We'll talk more about, you know, overall dynasty rankings then. I don't want to do like non super flex dynasty rankings kind of bore me. I'm not going to, not going to lie. So I'll probably have it with a, a super flex type tinge. But JJ, the receivers, we have Jamar Chase with Cincinnati. We have a Jalen waddle with Miami. We have Devontae Smith with Philadelphia. And I think is Tony, the only other one, or is there one other one? Tony and Bateman. Tony and Bateman. Okay. So Tony and Bateman. I feel like it's, it's the top. Is it just Jamar, Jason, the tier of his owner wide receiver? Or do you put waddle and Smith up there too? I would put, I would go chasing his own tier, then probably still go Devontae over waddle. And then, because that's what I had pre-draft and I, I think it's logical still. And then I'd probably go Bateman than Tony. That's how I, and I would have Bateman still ahead of Tony in a tier, basically tier of his own. Because I don't think Bateman is necessarily in that Alabama wide receiver tier right now. I agree. The, given the landing spot, just the low volume. I would agree with that as well. Rich over on YouTube asked, what's the grade on the Giants pick? Rich, I'm going to take this, alter your question and say, what's the grade on the Giants night? Because I will grade it more favorably if we include the fact that they traded down and picked up, but we think got a first round pick next year from the Bears in that trade. So they get a first round pick next year. And if you ask me, what's my view of a pick when it's Cadarius Tony plus a 2022 first round pick? Pretty favorably. I don't feel great about the Tony pick, but you get a first round pick in addition to that. So I feel good rich, because when you're a Giants fan about the overall night, because they picked up a first round next year, the individual pick was lacking. I feel like they should have gone again, broken record, offensive line, or gone a different wide receiver. They were going to go wide receiver, but the overall process of trading back for the first time in Dave Gettleman's history, getting a first round pick next year, the overall process there was sound. So I feel good about the move, just not the pick itself is the way that I would phrase that. Okay, so we have Baltimore and Tampa Bay left. We have some higher impact skill guys who are still yet to go. We have Givante Williams. We have Elijah Moore. JJ, anyone else you're still keeping eyes on? You know, as we wrap up round one and get set for rounds two and three, next week, or tomorrow, God, next week. I mean, look, it's almost been a year on these ghosts. My bedtime was two hours ago. Yeah, so I'm interested in seeing where, in particular, Elijah Moore goes, obviously, because he was, you know, he was apparently rising up a lot of boards. People were saying that he was like the consensus, wide receiver four in this class going into tonight. Obviously, that's not the case. I think it'll probably be the next wide receiver pick, but I'm interested in seeing who gets him, who gets Ron Dale Moore, who is, you know, a little bit more gadgety than Elijah is, but he's still a beast. I mean, he had an insane freshman year production. And then Terris Marshall. Let's not talk about that freshman year, specifically his first name, please. I'd really like to get that. And then there's Terris Marshall, who I think is one of the few alpha potential wide outs in this class, but he had pretty bad medicals. He'll be drafted tomorrow. So I'll get into him and his profile and why I like him tomorrow. But those are three that I'm really interested in. And then the top running back is Trevante Williams, who is looking like he's going to be a day two guy. Because I don't think Baltimore is going to get him. And then, you know, the Tampa Bay backfield is incredibly packed. You know, they could hypothetically go that direction, but I don't think it's going to happen. Even though there were some mocks that had Tampa Bay getting a running back. I just said someone with quarterback, which was. Interesting. Wild. Yeah. I just, yeah. I don't think Tampa Bay goes running back. I mean, maybe they surprise us, but. So Trevante Williams looks like he's going to be a day two guy, but he's definitely the best running back available. Yeah. I think that it's not that Tampa Bay shouldn't consider a quarterback. It's the quarterbacks they'd be taking at the back of the first round that were a little dicey, to say the least for sure. Okay. So Baltimore's pick is it. Go ahead, JJ. Yeah. No. So there's a tweet that I found while looking, just reading about the Travis Etn stuff. And it says that Urban Meyer says that he sees James Robinson, Carlos Hyde as the one, two punch and Travis Etn as the third down back. What? Yeah. So, so again, drugs. Yeah. So guys, like, like this is the kind of coach speak that you can take with a grain of salt. Like you can, you can look at this and say, okay, they want to utilize James Robinson and Carlos Hyde still in this offense. But when you're building projections and you're looking at Travis Etn's outlook, you have to understand that a guy that you're picking in the first round is more than likely going to see some sort of rushing share in that offense. Now, you know, my, even my projection for Etn, I had him, you know, not seeing like a 60% rush share in that offense. It was more like the 45 to 50% range. But even still, like, I would be shocked if James Robinson or Carlos Hyde outrush Travis Etn this year after they just spent a first round pick on him. I mean, like, again, it goes back to what we talked about before, where you have to let teams tell, you had Adam Schefter on your podcast a couple of years ago and he talked about you need to read into what teams do. What the Jaguars did is use their second first round pick on Travis Etn and you don't take a guy in the first round to make him a third down back. Yeah, Carlos Hyde is a depth signing. They needed help at running back. They had nothing back there. And then James Robinson, again, just to reiterate UDFA, was he a special back? I don't think so. Was he good? Yeah, he was good, but I don't know if he was special. And so as a result, you know, Travis Etn, much, much better prospect is a much higher ceiling. Ravens are on the block. The Ravens pick is in. There was something weird going on back at the stage. I have no idea what's going on there, but the pick is in for the Ravens. Two picks left in the first round here. Let's see if they go offensive line. They go defensive line. I guess Edgerush or Jason Oway, the guy who has been, every time someone has mentioned Jason Oway during this process, they have been obligated to mention to Neil Hunter because Neil Hunter knows, or not a lot of sack production in college. Jason Oway, the exact same thing, but he's the first round pick, goes to Baltimore. Tampa Bay's pick is already in apparently. So Bruce Arians passes that time as well. Thank you, Bruce. Which means we can kind of start to put a bow on things here. Because again, when we back tomorrow, we'll plenty of time to, I'll actually, I'm going to rank out my top picks for Superflex Dynasty because I had to fill them out for myself anyway. We can go through those tomorrow. So we don't need to go through that now. But I do want to go through overall takeaways. And Tampa Bay could change something here, but I feel like, given their running back room with Geo there, and they just re-signed Antonio Brown too, I feel like it's probably not going to be a, you know, super fantasy relevant guy. So we can start talking about overall takeaways from the first night of the draft. J.J., let's start with you. What's your overall takeaway from night number one here? I don't think that the wide receiver landing spots were very strong. You know, I don't mind Waddle in Miami. I don't mind Jamar Chase and Cincinnati. I think Chase and Cincinnati is going to be fine because they're a very pass-heavy offense. Joe Burroughs, a nice young quarterback. And Jamar Chase will get his just because he's talented and good. But even like Devontae Smith going to Philly, they could be fairly run heavy just because of Jalen Hertz. I mean, I know they had sort of funky splits with Jalen Hertz where they did throw a decent amount. But, you know, if you think logically at how they would want to approach that offense, you know, it's not like the best fit in the world. Cadarius Tony, going to the Giants, that's not a great opportunity or situation. And then obviously Rashad Bateman going to arguably the worst spot for a wide receiver for fantasy purposes. It's just not a great night for wide receivers in fantasy, I think. I think that rookie drafts took a slight hit with those landing spots. Yeah. So I think it is pretty tough. And we did get a question here from Tyler on YouTube asking, which rookie wide receiver has the most production this year? JJ, is it Jamar Chase, like by a wide margin? I think so. I think Devontae Smith probably has the second highest ceiling. Just because there's not a lot going on competition-wise in Philadelphia, he could easily capture a 24 percent target share if he hits. So I'd probably put Devontae Smith's second Jamar Chase in his own tier. OK. So Brandon and Ryan, I want to get your thoughts on the overall takeaways here. But the Buccaneers pick is in with pick 32, the final pick of the first round of this draft. And they went with Joe Tryon out of Washington. So again, not a fantasy-relevant guy. So let's finish up here with the takeaways, Brandon, from you. Talking mostly betting and daily fantasy. Anything takeaways for you from this draft and any big movers for you from a wind total projection perspective? No. Like I said, at the top of the show, I wasn't going to overreact to a lot of stuff. I will say I bumped up a few teams a little bit, maybe more than I thought. Surprisingly, and this is the subjective part, felt pretty good with the ETN pick for the Jaguars. So I kind of bumped up their offense a bit. But every team that took an offensive lineman, I just bumped up their offensive efficiency because that's usually what we see. I'm very happy. I think the biggest takeaway for me is that I'm just very happy for Alan Robinson. Yes. Alan Robinson and happy for Ryan because Ryan gets a roof or a good quarterback. Ryan, is that your top takeaway tonight? You get to watch Justin Fields play at Soldier Field this fall? Yeah. I mean, that was awesome. But we won't go chalk because I'm excited and people can follow me on Twitter for all of that reaction. But no, I think the biggest takeaway for me is just the Lions here with DeAndre Swift. I mean, I really will just be beating the drum for him all offseason with the way that that offense is currently designed. And from a negative standpoint or yet to be seen standpoint, it's just really surprising that the Broncos are not addressing the quarterback position unless they have some type of card up their sleeve or something like that. I'm really just shocked that they are comfortable with going into what would be Teddy Bridgewater, I assume, starting in 2021. Well, discount double check back on the Broncos later on and see what they decide to do with their quarterback situation. For me, the biggest takeaway is we just know the landing spots of the quarterbacks. I thought it was a... So the bad landing spots for the wide receivers, I think that the quarterbacks actually got pretty good landing spots. Trey Lance goes to a dream spot. Trevor Lawrence gets to have, I think, okay, supporting cast with Jacksonville. Zach Wilson, not a bad supporting cast. And Justin Fields goes to a spot where he can succeed. So although we were bumping down the wide receivers, I think we bump up the quarterbacks and feel very good about them where they went in this draft on night number one. That is all that we have for today. We're going to be back here once again tomorrow, though. We're going to be on air at 7 p.m. Eastern to talk the second and third rounds. We'll see where Givante Williams goes, Terrace Marshall, Rondale Moore, a lot of big names. Still to come off the board. We'll talk about the implications of that tomorrow and we'll go through more concrete rankings for these guys in Dynasty. Talk about where things shook out. Now we have time to digest all that went down. So make sure you follow Ryan on Twitter, Ryan Alexander, underscore W, Brandon is Acadula 13, and JJ is at late round QB. I am at Jim Sonnis. We want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Also a tremendously big thank you to Calvin Theobald, our video producer on air with us the entire four hours. Cal, we'll see you again tomorrow, man. We appreciate it. It's going to be a fun ride. We'll see all of you again tomorrow. Make sure you are subscribed on the Fando YouTube, Twitch, Facebook, and Twitter pages. We'll see you again. Talk rounds two and three here on the Fando YouTube, Twitch, Facebook, and Twitter pages.