 The big checks are coming out this week with the players championship down at TPC Sawgrass They're gonna be giving away a whole lot of money to whoever wins this weekend We're gonna break things down from a PGA DFS perspective with some big contests up in the lobby and a really good field in store But this week we'll break it down and get you sets try to win some money over on fandewald.com Welcome on into the heat check fantasy podcast powered by Number fire that's right here on the fandewald podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joint here as always by Brandon Good new law he is the managing editor of number fire calm Brandon the players is on tap for this week So how are you doing today? It's the players. How can I not be doing doing great? You know I? Mean easy question. I think that were there a lot of ways, you know, there's Lots of stuff going on the world. I don't know like yeah, I don't know your life. I don't pretend to know you yeah, I mean Yeah, well now that you put it that way. Well, no, I didn't mean like that I didn't mean like that didn't you know the bring the vibe down But like you know, maybe you were not in on like, you know not feeling the scotty shuffler vibes last week Maybe you had a head-to-head bet on sung jammer methods Patrick. I don't know, you know hypothetically. I don't know what's going on Why would I not be feeling the scotty shuffler vibes whenever He was a win pick on your podcast. Yeah. Yeah, he was a he was a gym win pick too Where I didn't really like him from a DFS standpoint because the salary was out there But the odds were still pretty decent. Mm-hmm. So I pulled a gym and I said scotty shuffler 19 to 1 So I didn't talk about a lot from a Fandall standpoint, but who made a lot of sense I was honestly a coin flip Pretty sure I said this. I think it was like a coin flip between Sheffler and Hovland for the win pick segment Hovland being 16 to 1 sheffler 19, and I just went I want shuffler and You know worked out Technically you didn't pull a gym because you ever would pick right so I would beg to differ on that But I think that what that means is we're well positioned to try to win some money this week But the players championship and there is a lot of money to be won by the good a lot of good markets over at Fandall sportsbook and a lot of them contests over on Fandall calm our job for today is to break down TPC sawgrass stadium course break down our thoughts on what you got to do to win their favorite options You need salary tier roster construction and much more But as you're playing along head over to Fandall comment check out this week's eagle Contest because for the players at TPC sawgrass over on Fandall You can create your best six player roster and follow along to determine folds as some of the best players in the world showcase They're talent head over to fandall.com today and start building your PGA eagle lineup Details on that are not directly in front of me. Don't pull up the contest right now. I'll let you know some details on The eagle I'm slow over here. I didn't do this beforehand. Anyway eagle is $300,000 in total prizes And of that pulling up the prize pool a hundred K going to first place so you can turn what is the entry fee? Really good stuff here Really good stuff. I wouldn't help to fight if I had any Entry fee is $7.77 again a hundred K to first play $300,000 in total prizes Just go look for yourself fandall.com into the lobby, you know, you know what to do You're better at this. I am it's a good That would be a good read fandall.com check it out. See what you see next week. You're gonna like see like Fandall's gonna like me and they can put like black tape over like the logos like we don't visit this guy anymore So like if you tune in next week in the background looks a little bit different. Just just don't be surprised That's the way I'll phrase that here. So let's talk here about TPC sawgrass stadium course it is 7,256 yards in a par 72 and If you're looking back at past history here, you'll remember that back in 2020 They played one round at this event before was canceled due to COVID-19 So you get around to data at least you don't look at that you can there's some guys who played pretty well for that one round Didn't get to finish it off But you can look at that so some funky course history there There are a hundred and forty four golfers in the field and the regular cut rules apply top 65 plus ties Make the cut after the first two rounds. So Brandon, we know what to expect at TPC sawgrass We've been here a lot of times. We've had good golfers here. So we kind of know what to expect What should we expect at TPC sawgrass for this weekend? Yeah, yeah, I know we should expect but you know just money tells me what we should expect Yeah, I know but for the people who don't know let them know Yeah, so one thing before I dig in It's worth noting that this event had played in May for Like a decade and it's back to March obviously If you subscribe to the the calendar that the world operates on but With the move back to March We see this course playcuffer. So a lot of the sample you're probably digging into with past results TPC sawgrass and what stats matter a lot of it's going to be based on performance in May So it's a little bit hard to adjust for that. However I'm sure most people who were listening know Justin Ray at Justin Ray golf on Twitter He's got all of the stats. I'm always envious of the stats He has but he has a piece up on PJ tour calm talking about how this course plays differently in March in May and The the TLDR is basically that it's more of a ball striking course in March. It's a little softer In terms of scoring in May And you see since since we've had this back in March the two winners have been Roy McElroy and Justin Thomas who are both shorter than 20 to 1 to win in each of those years We see a little bit more of the long shots back when this was in May. So just keep that in mind I'm gonna kind of treat this more as a major because I expect it to play a little bit tougher for this week, but With all that out of the way, I think it was important to discuss because it's you know You don't want to be looking only at May performance here, but for the course itself it's a little bit short for a par 72 and It's just honestly tough all around data golf ranks TPC sawgrass inside the top 15 And the most difficult courses out of 74 on their course table page so it's difficult top 15 difficulty in stroke scan off the tee Stroke scan approach Stroke scan around the green and stroke scan putting which is all four of them all four of the stroke scan stats So it's it's tough and it should play tough, especially with this back in March You don't really want to miss the fairways. So you'll probably see a lot of Driving accuracy talk this week, and I don't think it's wrong I think that stroke scan off the team makes a little bit more sense for this week because Just accuracy alone is never enough I have some more detailed notes on past finishes for Where guys to finish inside the top 10 and where they finish in terms of driving distance and driving accuracy, but I think I'm gonna go stroke scan off the tee here over driving accuracy I'm always interested to hear what your process brings you to with the driving stats But greens regulation rates are about as average as could be however Again going back to data golf. It's the seven most difficult course to pick up stroke scheme from approach And the reason for that is because there's water lurking everywhere waters and plan 17 holes Only harbour town best that with all 18 You can get you'll see penalties. We're going to see volatility if you look back You'll see some big names miss the cut just because it's how this works some bad bounces things like that so Difficult course where we need irons We need driving and we need just all around play. So my key stats for this week are stroking an approach Stroking it off the tee stroking around the green birdie or better rate and actually a little bit of course history because it is pretty predictive here Yeah, uh going back to the the driving discussion. So looking back at last year, you know Looking at where golfers who finished inside the top 15 ranked for the full year on the pga tour in various stats Their average rank for driving distance was 72nd Average rank for accuracy 81st average rank for good drive rate is 68th Average rank for stroking off the tee is 42nd So like a massive massive gap between off the tee play like stroking off the tee And every like individualized off the tee stats So good drive rate was better than the other ones. But off the tee play overall was far away the best That's why I went as well with stroking off the tee like I think that one way if you were to make like an alteration could be like Like a map that's Patrick type if guys gain strokes off the tee without being long. I think that that is More valuable this week than usual But if you're looking for like one stat, I would say Just going with stroking off the tee is going to lead you the right way more often than not Yeah, I mean it's almost always the best stat to go with I make this joke sometimes but like whenever you see a course where people recommend driving accuracy You can't sort the like the field by Highest percentage of fairways hit because there's a lot more that goes into it Whereas with distance at least if you sort it by the longest hitters like that's actually much more of Like a viable approach, but all that said, um, I always get a little bit wary whenever accuracy pops up because You can often see The best golfers get dinged too much. Um, the longer hitters because there's like They're not always trying to club down hit fairways. Um, that doesn't mean they can't do it Right and of course, it's a worthwhile trade-off for them to get the extra distance Maybe not get a fairway game there Like being the rough of it that or we're looking at data from courses where it doesn't matter if they miss a fairway And just because they're at a course where they need to hit fairways It doesn't mean that they can't hit those fairways and um something that's really eye-opening It's something that I point to a lot is data golf's course fit tool They adjust each golfer's baseline expectations based on their play style And some of the worst fits For tpc sawgrass because there's such an emphasis on fairways gain rory mackler always fourth from the bottom Getting penalized point three six strokes per round which is wildly high like Uh djs at point three one djs his own conversation But jesson thomas is a point three because their play styles don't really fit what what the stats sort of say matter however If you were really listening to me and I forgive you know, if you didn't that that's fine But rory and jt are on that list and like the bottom 10 and they're the past two winners here because It doesn't necessarily again Longer hitters can can club down they can hit fairways Shorter hitters can't club up and hit it farther. So anytime driving accuracies on the list I try to be a little bit cautious not to weight that too much I think it's also important to note the guys who may be Perceives being like big gainers in terms of like the course too like I mean nothing against like cala morcao and like the buzzard He's gotten but like he's been like the the prototype of like everyone like oh, okay Like cool It's a course where our distance doesn't matter as much above of more cala like an absurd amount and like I think where he's viewed is like fair. He's a very very good golfer, but like you want to make sure you don't go too far in that Um, we're making tweaks not overhauls based on course fit. I think that that's a key thing to keep mine that's true always, but I think like Especially in this good of an event where you have so many good alternatives to keep mine that like It's tweaks not overhauls based on The way a golfer fits the course like you may bump Rory or jt down a bit But like they you can bump it down a bit and they can still win I think that's a a key thing to keep in mind for this week with that in mind Let's dive into golfers who have done well at tpc sawgrass in the past and with dustin johnson He's 11-2 and I think there's a lot to break down with him in terms of like you wouldn't think of as being a prototypical course fit also If he form I guess uh could could phrase that way But he's 11-2 so like you're getting a bit of a discount in that regard So what do you see with dj both at tpc sawgrass and and uh recently here Yes, I've seen some buzz on dj on twitter Because the the win odds are pretty long. He's 36 to 1 to win on vandal sports book. Sometimes they're just as a breaking point I almost got there with brison with the us open. He was 28 to 1 and I was I almost got there But sometimes there's just a breaking point where like You say, okay, this is just probably too long over number for a golfer this good speaking of that brooks is 48 to 1 but um I don't know. I don't know But i'm seeing dustin johnson's name discussed because Of the betting odds being long and that might inflate his popularity on vandal Also with the salary being low for what you'd expect for dj long term Pretty low again dj as I mentioned doesn't fit the the narrative of being the like a fairway finder doesn't really fit What we should be looking for if we're really elevating Driving accuracy, but he still played well at the players. He's made 10 of 11 cuts here with uh, if we exclude a withdrawal He's been 12th 17th 5th and 48 in the past four finished years at tpc sawgrass again He's not gonna like pop as if you look at the past five or like who's the just the absolute best here He doesn't really come to mind. I actually kind of had to search for it a little bit more um with dj But if you give me a 12th a 17th of 5th and a 48 at a course where volatility sort of the name of the game That's really strong And then the question becomes current form and what to expect from dj in 2022 He has played three times. He was 25th at the farmers t8 in saudi arabia and missed the cut at the genesis with neutral irons Had a disaster in the bunkers Not really the most engaged demeanor, but it also is dust and johnson. So you never know what to expect and For anyone who doesn't know there's a lot like his name is circulating a lot and some Breakaway golf league talk. I'll just leave it at that So maybe he had some of that going on but again, we're getting dust and johnson at 11 2 And a loaded field any salary we can save is appealing. He's played well here. We know what the peak for dj is Are you tempted at 11 2 or do you think that there's just enough to like elsewhere? Not even to be drawn in by dj Yeah, I think that it's like a tough situation because it comes down to what we discuss always at majors and it's basically a major in terms of like field strength like You got to draw the line somewhere in terms of I can't play everybody and There are a lot of guys around dj both above and below where I don't need to guess at like their form and like their form is pretty good in addition to having You know at least like the the history of dj at tpc sawgrass where it's like good. Maybe not like outstanding outstanding, but like good um, I can get that I can get good play recently without having to make like Leaps and I also think that like with the gaelic dust and johnson even if like his popularity is reduced to where it typically is It's not going to be like three percent so to me I don't see enough like Of an incentive for me to like take a leap on him when I could feel pretty secure with other guys elsewhere For this week at least just because the alternatives are so good. What about for you? Yeah, I took a long look um I don't think i'm going to get there myself. I don't feel that worried about it um Because the the way for me to regret it is that peak dj returns and I don't know if he's quite there Um if peak dj returns we're all in trouble aside from baby john rom who's whose floor is still really high um But I don't think i'm going to feel the need for the you know the fomo to get me there he's been putting really well and that's Something that matters a little bit less when this tournament's held in march than it is in may Um, I have him is just basically one of the best putters 99th percentile over the past year with my adjustments It's phenomenal. Um, so there's still some fear But I don't think i'm going to get there myself with dj Yeah, I don't think I will either and part of it is because we got some rock stars above him and below him We'll talk about throughout the podcaster today One of the rock stars above him is justin thomas as you mentioned the defending champs. Let's talk about him here Tpc sawgrass has been solid but not spectacular for him. So that might be a pitch for dj is like hey Jt was solid but not spectacular and then one last year. Maybe dj could pull that around as well But for jt, he's been here seven times if you count 2020 He has the win in 2021. He was third in 2016 11th in 2018 And thomas thomas enters with pretty good form too. He had top tens at the genesis at the wm Phoenix open over the past month thomas is 11 9. So like you know not a discount But also he's only a hundred dollars more than calling more a kawa and i mentioned more a kawa before I was getting talked up in terms of course fit his betting odds at least yesterday were very very short He was 11 to 1 he has since lengthened to 13 to 1 so didn't get a lot of bites at that 11 number, but I'm still guessing more a kawa winds up being pretty popular this week Which may allow us to get jt maybe lower than he should be so Kind of into jt. What are your thoughts on him here? Okay, so That was a big big inhale. Well, look it's I love talking about great fields but There's also a point of like Look, am I really gonna single out justin thomas and say don't play justin thomas No, um, I think there's a great case to be made for jt. Is he my favorite play up in this tier? No, he's not um, so That's like it's as simple as that where i'm gonna play a calling more a kawa over justin thomas And I would like to ask If you would take a head to head and if not, would you take patrick cantley versus justin thomas? um Not cantley I know that Probably not talking a big game here, but he won't even take a Well, like part of the reason is because I think that more a cow will be more popular If it's in a vacuum, I think they're pretty even so I don't really have a firm Firm like stance If you go to fan share like they're pretty even there too. So like it's not like a huge gap, but based on perceived twitter sentiment, it seems like we'll probably get more More kawa lines this week than jt lineup. So I don't want to do a head to head but like If we get the read by before thursday morning that it will be indeed that way where More a cow is a lot more popular than at then I would be going to jt over him But like head to head. I think they're pretty even personally Okay, um, do you think more cow is definitively above jt? um to the I mean to the degree that Two elite golfers can be separated. Yeah, okay, uh, give me like a Plus minus fandom like give me give me a spread here. I can I can go in if you give me a spread No, it's They're the same they're the same coward They're the same betting odds now and jt is a hundred dollars higher in salary If I try to do this to you you would be Letting me know that you are giving up a hundred dollars in salary I would Doesn't mean you I can't get you to bite Oh, well, let's move down to some lower salary golfers with interesting histories here at this core Starting with adam scott. He is 9700 dollars and been here a lot once or twice What do you see with adam scott in those one or two trips at tpc sawgrass? Yeah, one or 200 maybe um scott won the players in 2004 Since then he has more top tens with three than missed cuts at tpc sawgrass with two which again We're going to see some big names in this the cut. Um, this isn't going to be like complete carnage or anything but some guys are just going to have You know an extra water ball that just pushes them uh too far down the list and they can't make it up Um, so any type of consistency at this course Definitely noteworthy. Um, he has made 15 of 17 cuts since 2004 at tpc sawgrass Again, just phenomenal for a high variance event and he's been golfing well Um, 10th at abu-dabi 9th in dubai 38th at the wm phoenix open 4th at the genesis 26th at the arnold palmer You know, we're going to talk roster construction. We're going to talk balanced lineup builds. Um, that's going to be the way that i lean i'm going to Probably be light on john rom Even more cala possibly can't lay just because the salaries are up there and they make me dig too far deep Now there's one caveat to the balanced lineup build and his name is chris kirk But outside of form. Yep, but outside of that Um, i'm going to be a very you know very heavy on my balanced approaches. So scott makes a lot of sense I think i'm going to have plenty of adam scott this week. Uh, what are your thoughts on him? Uh, same thing. We're all being that range a lot I think that he makes a lot of sense within that range So i have no reason to push back on him and like he doesn't need to be at the top of that tier for me For me to like him a lot He's not at the top of that tier But like i'm going to wind up using him because i'll be in this range most likely so much like Sung jm's there that fits patrick is there. I think shane lowery might be there to shane lowery's 96 Uh, if it's patrick 97 sung jm 99 Joaquin neiman is 98 So like it's a good range But like I don't think that'll be enough to push me off of adam scott at 97 just because i'll be there so often Yeah, I got a lot of names highlighted there. Um, basically the ones you mentioned lowery fits Sung j took a long hard look at neiman. Um, a little bit nervous maybe there with again, that's just uh The the fear of driving accuracy creeping in which is probably again a little bit unfounded Neiman, I think if this were a couple weeks ago, we'd be talking about how good his form is Um, he missed the cut after a win, which is you know, forgivable. Um So I do I guess want to backtrack a tad where scott's not my favorite But I love this range enough where i'm going to be playing a lot of these guys Would you take a scott versus neiman bet? Okay I was including this part of a good range. I would take a scott versus sung j Or scott versus maddie fits. I love sung j. No, I have maddie fits No, I think I ranked them Sung j fits lowery scott in that range. I would probably do the exact same order I said, there's a lot to like about adam scott. There's a lot to like about other guys It's the same conversation at a lower salary range that we just had with jt and more cowl. It's like There's nothing against adam scott. I just probably might be a little bit lower on him than some other guys because that's how the field works this week I think that also bolsters the case for living in this range more and being more balanced. Um, so personally, I think that is kind of the key takeaway here is that like We want to be in this range quite a bit and I will be in this range and that naturally means I'll be on scott for sure also back in between you said like Super stars will miss the cut this week The as of yesterday like if you look at the golfers of the odds between 17 to 1 and 31 to 1 It's a six golfer range Everyone missed the cut last year. They all six of those guys missed the cut last year. So it's gonna happen We're gonna have like good golfers missed the cut and like it's gonna happen. That's okay. Like we got an account for that It's a different event. So uh in a tough field with a lot of golfers in the field So that's just gonna happen for sure. Let's talk about Sergio Garcia coming here just as long as adam scott Basically, you talked in the open about how some bad putters have won here recently. So Sergio's a bad putter guaranteed winner former winner here too. You know who was back in 2008 Garcia was runner up in 2007 in 2014. He was 8th in 2013 and He's had a bit of a resurgence of late and possible that started around the players last year the players he was a beast with his irons and pushed him to a ninth place finish That has typically been his calling card at this course has been the irons Garcia's approach play at the arm of palmer was pretty rough And it wasn't great at the the genesis either, but he's generally in pretty good form And Garcia's just $9400. Does he do enough for you there to move the needle at all? Took a long look at at Garcia. Um I'm gonna have a hard time ranking him ahead of Cory Connors at 93 and tater gooch bad putters might as well come Cory Connors tater gooch 91 And then Russell Henley 9,000. I think I'd all rank above Garcia, I think surge is probably fourth out of the like 9,095 range I know this isn't really helping people narrow things down But this is again a conversation of you don't have to get that wild to build good lineups this week And you can also just see who people aren't talking about Because for the most part If I go from like 9,000 And above I'm not interested in Justin Rose. I think the shameless powership has sailed Yeah, definitely built a case for Jason day Any of these guys here maybe web who hasn't played in a while Um, but like outside of that from 9,000 and up you could I could justify anyone. I'm not going to talk anybody out of anyone from that range. So You don't have to get wild this week Um, embrace the chaos and just see where people aren't and you can probably build some great lineups just with that strategy alone Yeah, I was going to try to get you on a gooch versus Garcia head to head, but I Realize that was stupid. So I think tater gooch is a great play I think tater gooch is a great play. Um, I know we're going to talk about chris kirk in a second But we have a we have a good number of standouts here. Um in the lower salary range and That makes it tough to to win all things down. I think our sea is definitely a consideration there It's just more so I think of the ranges. I'll be in least this might be the least one like the low 9,000 range outside of like gooch I think Like I think that my ideal route is Peppering the daylights out of 9600 and higher higher Um, and like living the 10,000 range a lot maybe having kirk in there Maybe having like gooch, but like I think I want to be in that a higher 9,000 range quite a bit And that might lead to me not using Sergio a lot But like if I had 94 left love the rest of my lineup Maybe already I gooch in there. I think that Garcia would be a guy. I'd be okay using Probably conners first, but like Garcia worth consideration for me for sure Let's dive into court or a current form now and talk about golfers who are Stroking it well that does include rory mackleroy. He is 11-6 mentioned that he had won here previously and the form I think has been trending up Quite a bit. What do you see with rory mackleroy entering this week? Yeah former winner here in 2019. He's in form. I think that's fair to say that Well in the cj cup back in october and in uh, since since the calendar flipped over To 2022. He's finished 12th at Abu Dhabi third in Dubai 10th at the genesis and 13th at the Arnold Palmer after storming out to huge lead in the first round that looked like he was probably going to win it. Um had some you know measured comments about the course Which is not really the in the scope of what our show is so i'm not going to dig into how the course played last week But mackleroy ranks in the 95th percentile and adjusted ball striking over the past year And that accounts for recency and field strength in my database He is 33rd in fairways gained or sorry 33rd percentile in fairways gained over the past 50 rounds And that one comes from fantasy national dot com He is a good bermuda putter and there's like some overseeding. Um, I don't really want to dig too far into the surface splits this week because i'm sort of downplaying putting in in favor of T degree anyway, so uh surface splits are very very Minor in terms of what i'm doing anyway this week. Um, just great overall form at tpc saugrass. So I think that rory could catch a lot of buzz a lot of popularity this week Where are you with rory? It's just such a good range in the 11 000 tier. I think we need to maybe Rank these guys eventually before the end of the show Yeah, it's tough because like it is a lot of good dudes But like rory is like part of the reason that it's tough because I really don't want to be low on him We had talked about how entering the arnold palmer He was like Blazing it everywhere except on his approach play and the approach play We knew we're like, okay, it's rory macaroy. He's always been very good there that could come back and it did um His approach play very solid last week Just another putting the putting had been there previously as you said a good bermuda putter had been putting Better than his like baseline recently So you're like, okay You know the approach was there the putting could be there the off the t play has been stellar for a very long time now I should probably be pretty in on rory And I would say right now if you maybe rank them hypothetically hypothetically It'd be between rory and jt first like I don't know like mora cow is right there too. But again, I'm assuming he'll be very popular I that that's like it's hard to like get that out of out of my brain that he That he is going to be popular this week. So I'm debating between rory and jt Don't know which way I want to go yet, but I think it's between those two for me Are they in that upper echelon for you? I know you're lower on jt. What about rory compared to like mora cow and stuff So we're talking specifically the seven golfers with the salary of 11 in front of their salary. Yeah, okay, or rom Throwing rom. Um, I mean, it's it's boring, but rom really should be number one. Um But I have I would rank them At salary, uh Mora cowa Rom can't lay hovland I definitely finished it. I forgot can't lay. Sorry I I like can't lay more as an outright winner just because this the odds are shorter or longer. Sorry um, yeah compared to the salary, but This way I can sort of get exposure to mora cowa through dfs Um, and I do that a lot with carl arson Like if you I can't bet is like his win on this is an ass car Backdoor nascar take. Um Like I'll do that a lot where I'm like, oh, I'll get my financial exposure to him via this route than this one. Um Okay, definitive ranking right now Rory can't lay jt mora cowa Sorry, is that now excluding john rom again? Yeah. Yeah We okay, can I have a john rom versus rory head to head? No Rom would be first. That's just it's not worth talking about I changed my mind All right, man, I can't I can't follow this but um, let's let's put it this way We like a lot of these names, right? Uh-huh Are there any golfers? Uh from 11 000 and above who you do not think you'll play because we can't play all of them if we're being realistic I must we're playing hundreds of startups dj realistically probably not gonna play I probably won't play dj and as much as it hurts to say I probably won't play zander. Yeah, I thought that too I also I think the if I had to give like a hot take I might not play At salary I might not play Rory Okay, I think I might not play hovland If we're like tearing it out that way yeah so I would say if I'm making a list right now three guys on least likely to play dj zander hovland So the lowest salary of the of that Correct Correct I mean I was I was I was three at the bottom four So I mean it is what it is But again, this is I struggle with this because it's like we can sit here and talk for 20 minutes about how to rank these guys And and the reality is they're virtually all playable like zander is playable Dg is playable. Um, it's just a matter of who we prefer and I think for us We're we're just lower on dj and zander. So again If you take the advice we're saying and people are just like, yeah, I'm not gonna play dj or zander this week because I can play these other gods I think you probably just play dj and zander Right, right, right. I would say that like you can probably get other guys. We like more Also at like yes. Yes. So I would say that like Yeah, that's what I would say. Okay. One guy we did not discuss there because he doesn't he does not have an 11 in front of His salary scottie sheffler Probably should have an 11 there though. So let's talk about sheffler right now. He's won two of the past four events seems good Um, he got those wins in very different fashions last week sheffler gained 8.1 On approach while losing 0.4 off the tee. It's nuts At the wm phoenix open he lost 1.6 an approach but gained 5.2 off the tee He's very good. The key difference is that sheffler has been lights out as a putter He has gained at least two and a half on the greens in three straight events Bermuda is his best surface. So not a surprise that he would do better on like the the florida swing, but Doing as well as he has still feels pretty wild. Uh, sheffler is 10 seven I think we can agree that he's probably under salary that's fair to say he is under salary, but Does the prospect of inflated popularity make you wary of sheffler or Do we oversell how popular he'll be because like we've seen recently Recent winners don't get as big of a bump as I think I would think they would get You're actually trying to find him on fan share. He's 18th. He's I was looking something. Yeah, um, that's low That's the same as dj dj and sheffler salaries probably should be flipped. Um I think that would make some sense. Um I have nothing bad to say about scotty sheffler and one of the things I was kind of waiting The reason I kept kept that past conversation at 11 000 and up almost because the new sheffler was the next guy we were talking about and um, I think that this tier more than anything more than that that 11 000 tier is really where i'm going to be living with sheffler gaino burger and cameron smith I think that you can you get a lot of win equity there. Um, according to my simulations and you get Like my my win simulation model has uh, john raman about six percent, which is a lot lower than he typically is Um, kai's about five percent and then we're looking at about three to two percent for Virtually everyone else and that includes sheffler smith and burger So i'm gonna have a hard time passing up the savings that I get from those three Um without losing a whole lot of win equity, which then allows me and again, we have chris kirk to talk about but I don't have to be living in the low 8 000 range just to get access to guys with wind juice And that's very appealing to me. So sheffler's part of it. I don't think will be that chalky as you mentioned Um, so i'm big on sheffler, but he's not the only one in that tier Yeah, so I think that like I sent you this lineup yesterday But like it was a lineup with chris kirk and there a 78 we'll talk about him in a second But it had sheffler smith burger if you do Well, I'm not giving up six but like four guys of kirk burger smith and sheffler You have 10 two left for your final two golfers. That's stupid. You can go with like I mean, maybe not rom but like you could go with like rory rory in that lineup leaves you $800 left I don't really want to be in that range that much but like that's not outrageous You could go with like brooks kepka brooks mf and kepka an event where they give out a huge check like This is really appealing to to build things that way. So Whether it's with kirk or without kirk. I think the idea of Peppering that 10 000 that peppering that high 9 000 range is very appealing So as much as we talked about the studs this week like jt or a cow or rory I think that this is going to be my Like preferred build is being in that range as much pop Maybe that does include having a rory in there a rory or a jt can't lay etc etc And then dipping down here for like my second and third golfers having kirk in there But like I just want to be in this range a lot. So in terms of like Quote-unquote priority ranges to me this week I would say the 10k range is my number one priority to be in on a lot Would you phrase it that way as well? I would Perfect. Let's go down to some other golfers who are noteworthy and talk about walking neiman more because You mentioned the win mentioned the miscuts after that, but generally good form 9800 dollars means the conversation around neiman is very different than the conversation We had coming off his win because he was like 118 or something like that. So neiman is 9 8 this week What are you seeing with him there? I was going to ask if you want me to pivot to brooks But sure, let's do brooks. Let's do it. Um, because I think brooks is a very I mean, he's part of that tier that we just talked about at 10 4 His win odds are 48 to 1 on fandal sports book very long But brooks is also brooks kapka Now that's a loaded statement in a lot of ways because that's a brooks kapka who wins majors, but also brooks kapka who doesn't always have The most consistent output His past results have been 16th at the Honda classic which he Got there with basically Absolutely neutral short game and did it all with ball striking missed the cut at the genesis with pretty terrible putting but also poor off the t-play Neutral adjusted iron play according to data golf third at the wm phoenix open, which is of course very typically plays well Putted really well did gain strokes with ball striking there Cut at the farmers with again a lot of putting poor ball striking So i'll simplify this and say if we go back to the farmers in late january. He's been cut third cut in 16th He's putted really well at times The off the t-play has been up and down the ball striking has been up and down I still think that with all of that There's a peel for brooks He's been pretty solid at tpc sawgrass. He's got an 11th a 16th a 35th a 56th and a missed cut So four or five made cuts here. Um, I think that like he's part of that tier He should be higher than some of these guys, but it's also like I'm sorry. I'm gonna Prefer scottie cheffler and daniel berger to brooks keppa right now, but that doesn't mean I don't like brooks so talking about brooks, um And maybe we can also throw sand burns and was out tourists into this low 10 000 range because We we got to hit this range right. I think I think it's going to be key this week Yeah, so I think that like for me like I was going through that that lineup of like peppering the 10 000 range books Brooks is the fourth guy I put in there It was kind of just because like I had the luxury to do so which means to Implicitly that that implies that like I've got cheffler smith burger all above them. I do me too. So I'll just be in this range enough for I might still get there now the question if it is Kepka burns zalatoris Louie hasn't been like as red hot recently, but I think he's still like worth like Checking out. I would say I guess in there too at 10 1 louis tasim I would probably Go See I think the zalatoris is interesting if you think people like kind of overlook him because he's not like a quote-unquote course fit Like I think that that's kind of appealing to me um, but I also just don't Generally like him as much as I like slamming Sammy burns um, so I guess I'd probably go Kepka above those guys And then burns zalatoris I think the pitch for putting burns above zalator if we putting and putting may not matter as much as weeks Maybe I should go zalatoris over burns, but I would say Kepka is one for me That's the the ranking of that those three that I feel best about I would say Yeah, I think I still put brooks number one just because of the pedigree, which is usually not how I React like actually have them ranked statistically the worst of those three um I was going to make a joke that zalatoris is basically the same type of like He's jt and rory who are the past two winners here. He's not because his puddings a lot worse than that Um burns might actually fit that a little bit more, but I do have Kepka first but again with you He's not the first play if I'm plugging in three guys in the 10,000 range. He's not one of the top three um, it's just I think he's so fascinating because he could be It's he it's either going to be wow We didn't play brooks at 10 four and he's like in the top five after the first day or he's 30th and it's like yeah, it's because He's brooks right now like I think he's a he might be more fascinating than dj to me. Um, I agree So I've seen more reason to buy into brooks recently. Yeah, so like that's why I'm like it all seems lower salary. So it helps too um, so I would say Would you play him in your head-to-head against me? No, I don't think I could because like I'm not going to have four guys in this range and he's below Again cheffler smith burger. I mean, I might not play for that. Yeah, I was gonna say I might not I might but I might not so Honestly, I might plan a lot And that lineup did include chris kerks, let's talk about him kind of the guy I think is A decision point for this week You talked about kerk last week in the current form section and he wound up paying off fifth place finish This week he's 7800 dollars and when you're coming off a pair of top 10 finishes, that's pretty fun Kirk has gained at least five strokes tea to green and three straight events He has also gained at least 1.7 strokes putting in all those Which is a good recipe for three straight top 14 finishes, which is shocker exactly what he has Kirk he showed upside in the past He showed more consistently consistency recently. I'm skeptical of the consistent consistency sticks But the upsides there and that's kind of a key I also think that an important thing here to consider is that lower salary golfers rarely rarely rarely Get a lot of buzz the point where they are prohibitively popular. So like I'm operating under the assumption guys like neemily popular this week Kirk I don't think so at least not to the point where I get scared. So I'm pretty and on chris kerk this week. What are your thoughts on him? love Kirk His salary opens up a lot The only issue I have I mean you laid out the case for why we should let chris kerk the only case I have is Against him is that I like to build a core And if I have chris kerk as part of my core, I don't really have a whole lot of flexibility to to pivot away from him in line-ups And still be building similar line-ups so Basically what I'm getting at is chris kerk is naturally going to be tied to A lot of or potentially all of if I'm not careful my genre on line-ups or my more count on line-ups to make things work There's not anywhere else to go For me Unless I go up to 80 400 with alexander noren He's the he's the next guy. I would have a lot of interest in and I don't think I'm quite going to get there myself very often so If I'm building one lineup a head-to-head or a single entry I think kirk makes a lot of sense like you said, I don't think he's going to be as popular as he probably should be Because he's just not a big name and you really have to be kind of plugged in maybe listen to the heat check to be In on chris kerk. I'm not saying like his win odds are very short So anyone who just matches this up will kind of be drawn to chris kerk as well. But like he's not a household name He's not winning the pip. He's not winning the pip or anything. So um, my concern is that if I anchor around chris kerk I'm going to be Really restricted with how I can pivot away from that And I want to eat if you're gonna play a lot of chris kerk if you're gonna play 10 lineups and you say I want to play chris kerk and five Just be careful not to have all of your kerk tied to a specific stud or something like that And that's how you want to play it but I think that the key the the fun thing about him is he works with every construction because He can offset the salary of rom or he can allow you to just like bathe in that 10,000 range both those to me Really really appealing So I think that that's why I feel okay with like going hard at kerk I'm like if we're talking with this from a cash game perspective For cash games my mindset is I want to grind out the most under salary golfers in the field Kirk is that and I think that his cut odds are high enough where I can like Be okay with him in that regard too. So I think for our head to head Kirk will be in there It's just deciding the other five guys and like it might be the the very balanced lineup that I That what we've been talking about or it could be you know Use rom we think it's the best guy straight up Um and use kerk to offset that I think that both those routes are very very valid and it allows me to be pretty heavy on kerk without him Without him being tied to like, you know every rom on it being tied him etc etc Yeah, I mean it's it's definitely possible. Um That's just one thing that I find myself doing is being too exposed to One value and having that tied up to a lot of uh Again back to our nascar comment. I had you know how that happened a lot like oh, man Ricky sent house junior rec there go all my larson lineups, you know, like stuff like that like that definitely happens, you know So that's why I go with the spreadsheet route, you know type not in excel so you can see the combinations pretty easily Pretty fun, you know, just saying don't don't roll your eyes. Don't roll your eyes. You know, I'm right Let's take a look at what the bookmakers are saying for this week Justin thomas con mora kawa and john rom are the co-favorites i fan dual sports book all sitting at 13 to 1 Dips down then to victor hovin and 17 to 1 of the rory mackerel right 19 to 1 patrick can't lay 21 to 1 scotty shelfer checks in at 24 to 1 and zander schoff lay 28 to 1 Hideki matsuyama. We've not said his name yet. I don't think he's 31 to 1 and then kim smith and uh, daniel burger Sorry cameron smith Cameron smith and daniel burger dan burger. That sounds terrible. Uh, round up the top group at 34 to 1 So we talked about this a bit in passing But the odds are pretty flat this week. So you get one single entry Tournament lineup. What is your roster construction for that lineup? You only get one A balance build centered on burger cheffler and Cameron smith could not agree more. I think that like with the way It's partly like the way this event sets up partly the way that like tougher field setup and partly like The fact that I think all three of those guys are like rock star plays relative to salary think If I had one of those things I'd feel good about it, but having all three together makes it to me Not a no-brainer, but like something I feel very good about very firm about personally Yeah, I mean it doesn't have to be the the route you go I know we're talking about chris kirk, but like they'll be horse or what 88 is a value play rustle handling 9 000s of value play Um, you can still play you can build around rom who again I'm gonna know i'm rom's not my first player pick, but he's the best play in the field He hasn't been putting very well. He's been he switches putter Had that like one inch putt that i'm sure we've all seen by now From from 10 inches. He puttered it about an inch. Um He's the best play, but if you really want to play like morakawa or rory this week You can I just think that the best approach For the win equity available is that that that trio in the 10 000 range I do too. So one single entry tournament lineup That's where I go and might go there for cash too just because I think that like It's a pretty attractive build. Um, I talked before about morakawa's odds lengthening He went from 11 to 1 to 13 to 1 which other golfers odds have shifted the most since things Let's say since like midday yesterday. Unless you have odds dating further back than that Um, I I mean, I probably do in a spreadsheet, but like yeah I think it's more noteworthy to see who's getting talked up From salaries dumps basically. Yeah Um patrick cantley shortened from 24 to 21 unfortunately for my win pick Uh Suggestion or likely win pick suggestion. Um, Cory for dfs though, you know We have smart people back in him that helps Uh, Cory connors 55 to 46 You want you want fairways and you want irons? I know the degaft. I know a guy I got a guy got a friend. Uh, jordan spieth 55 to 48. Um, you want to Close your eyes on every drive, but open them up on the iron shots. I got a guy for that Um, sir, geogarcia seawool cam jason day 90 to 75 All past players winners. Um, russell henley 120 to 75 I've seen shorter other places. Um He was a price correction. It was a bad number. I think it was a price correction. Uh, it's He's not on the chris Kirk level at 9 000, but like He's you want, uh, you want Fairways and irons Gooch or a guy for you Uh, gooch By how much? Um I'd say like 60 40. Okay Cool, that works Continue and then You're good Uh, and then the notable lengthening I've seen more cala 11 to 13 dustin johnson 34 to 36 and abraham answer 55 to 75 A debate slipping. Hmm pretty disappointing. Um, yeah, I think that, uh Connors Makes a lot of sense for 93 and like I think that the like that that range I've talked about now. I can arrange as much It's more so like the volume of guys in that range conners very good play gooch very good play Henley very good play, but it's kind of like just those three Maybe sergio in there too. Um, and I think that's kind of the key Hangup for me is that so That's what I'm out with regards to them. Which lower salary golfers have odds to stand out to you Yeah, if I look at golfers with salaries of 9 000 or lower, um, we have billy horse foot 48 I think we'll get a lot of buzz max homa 55 Uh, rustle henley seawood cam gary woodland chris kirk all 75 to one jason co crack 90 to one tom hoagie alex noran brian harman keith michael 120 to one Sorry, I got distracted by twitter Sorry, i'm gonna close twitter. We're not gonna do with that now. That's a problem for future jim something's happening And I don't want to know what it is. Anyway, um Yeah, I I tweeted up my kisikian bad things that are happening. So anyway, we're gonna leave that Leave that where it is Kirkwood 78 7500 dollars Or sorry, it's 75 to one to win. I know I put them around. I'm still distracted by this twitter thing I can tell Um, it's good that he's alive. Yeah Sorry, I thought for a second it wasn't I got really confused Anyway So chris kirk you could think with us talking about him not that we drive anything but like, um with The odds being that short you might think that he's like running away in terms of tags He's 13th in fanshare tags right now So I think that to me every like data point says like He could be popular, but like just based on like historical research We know that guys like him don't tend to get steamed up too much So despite the fact he pops there pops other spots not a huge thing for me. It's an horsel at 48 to one $8,800. I know horsel's been golfing pretty well recently Let's lump him in with the henley and gooch discussion because he's in that range too Is horsel in the gooch tier for you or no? Yeah, he's third of those three and I think those are the three standouts, which is why I have enough ways to go where I think I'd probably Be a little bit lighter on chris kirk again just from a so I can keep my my core Like tighter But I will stray to some kirk and then upgrade from like a sheffer to wherever that gets me depending on my lineup so Yeah, I think that that's probably where I'm at home is also okay home is close Yeah, I think he's in the discussion too, but again, I don't want to be in this range very much So I want to be selective when I am there for sure Let's talk about the weather for this week and it is noteworthy I would say because it's gonna be wet in florida the entire weekend, especially early thursday Thursday kind of drenched with rain forecasted the entire day wind speeds not super high And there don't seem to be waves of when the rain will arrive So if you're trying to like pinpoint an ideal tea time They're all going to be in wet stuff friday similar pretty constant rain odds not spiky wind which gives Some thought to tea time stacking in order to like try to find spots where they get lighter rain but in general It seems like everybody's gonna be wet Impacted by this for sure saturday has rain in the morning and then massive massive winds throughout the entire day Be around 20 miles per hour Basically from 10 a.m on So all the leaders will be in bad conditions on sunday the wind will start on 15 miles per hour And then we'll dip throughout the day So later groups on sunday will have an edge if you're looking to place some like You know place and that's for the final round Keep in mind that like the later groups are going to have better conditions in the early groups on sunday In general, it's going to be gross weather it's like you've got a What in the past has been a high high variance event and it might be more chaotic than usual So I think we should keep that in mind brandon. How does alter your approach? If at all knowing that the weather is going to suck this week I'm not not too much. Maybe bump up some guys who have played here in the past or who play well in florida, but one one area that would Be affected most is the greens if it's wet, but A tweet from andy lack at adp lack sports on twitter Mentioned that the greens here have a sub air system and that they can basically be dried out whenever they want it's just a matter of whether the tournament does that or not so Don't go overboard. Don't assume that Golfers will be sticking the greens Just because it's wet. So one thing to keep in mind We don't tend to overreact or react too heavily to Weather because it's a little bit hard to predict believe it or not weather So I think that I'm probably just playing it as is this week because I don't think that I have a clear enough advantage One way or the other. I think that what I would do is increase Like if you're modeling out, maybe you increase the volatility But also like in your head increase the volatility a little bit because like it adds one more factor of unpredictability So like typically what I'm talking about that in terms of dfs. It means I want to Be more receptive to pivoting off the shock and I also want to Maybe lower the lid on my exposure levels. I tend to have pretty high exposure levels like my cap tends to be pretty high I'll make that a little bit lower this week. Like if Kirk was going to be a 70% play maybe 60% like, you know not going too crazy, but I think that's kind of the way I want to view things in a more volatile event With that said, let's go tier by tier now and break down our favorite place over on fan duel for the players championship Starting off with the stud range Brandon when the money's on the table, who are you riding with for this week? I should say john rom because I think he we both say he's the best play like but we're not going to talk about him Would you say john rom it if you could play john rom is the best play? Yes, okay He's the best play if you're not playing john rom you can't get there. You or you're just kind of moving away from john rom I'm going to go to calling more calva first There's a reason that he started as the betting favorite, which isn't the case anymore But this sets up really well for what more calva does and it's hating fairway is And striping the irons. He was on the no laying up podcast recently and he actually said that He's trying to build speed to his driving but Not overhaul it because it's important for him to be in the fairway because that gives him access to his biggest strength Which is just being the best iron player on the planet. Um, so that's really noteworthy He's gonna, uh, you know be strategic here and that's going to give him access to that iron play I mean picked up strokes from ball striking at tpc sawgrass last year, but lost in both areas of the short game Um, he's been really good in 2022. So I have no issues with more calva. I think he's pretty close to rom From a dfs standpoint For this week. Yeah, I think that more calva. I'm probably too low on him Like if you give me more time away from like, oh, it's rory. Oh, it's jt Maybe i'll warm up to to more calva I think that like if i'm If there's one guy i'm afraid that i'm too low on it's probably more a calva side of him point. So That's why I wouldn't do the head to head, but again, it's assuming that he'll be popular Maybe that won't be the case, but uh, you know You must have made the pip man. You're talking about rory jt. Just I'm not used to hearing pip set out loud I'm used to seeing pip and like in my head. I always read it as pip when when you say it is pip It sounds a lot less cool. I'm not gonna lie Not man, it's cool It is cool like inherently because it's like generating buzz. It's like it is cool inherently, but like Calling it pip makes it a lot less cool. Like they should consider a name change just Throwing it out there. Anyway, I had jt on the sheet as like my Top guy. I'm gonna go cantlay. I need to go cantlay. I think I think the one downside of cantlay is course history because like He doesn't really have the best form at tpc saugrass like looking back at uh, cantlay's history here um 22nd 23rd cut And then finished ones his most recent one was cut last year. However In 2020. Yes, buddy went nuts. Yes I was waiting for one of these takes. He was unconscious. So redemption narrative Patrick cantlay man of destiny Gonna win the players this week cantlay as we know golfing really well He leads the tour in data golf's true strokes gained over the past six months at plus 2.46 That despite not having like his best approach play in that time cantlay Um, if we're looking at him relative to this field ranks fourth and starts getting off the t acornifesta national 32nd and approach 17th around the green The saiyan I need to go with patrick cantlay. I had jt on the sheet We're making an in-show pivot patrick cantlay guaranteed winner at the players this week redemption It's like when the expos would have won the world series in that uh, I don't know whatever Uh, I was like three, uh, the the the the lockout or strike short and year patrick cantlay man of destiny you heard it here first guaranteed Don't look at me like that. Don't judge. Don't judge. Well, anyway, we could have said this about hadaki But we'll we'll move on. Um, I could say it about like like sun j played well. I'm pretty sure in that one, right wasn't um I don't remember. It's hadaki I remember that weak vividly. I don't remember the specifics who coughed really well that that hadaki nine under uh, harris english besadenhote sebu kim seven under leechman cantlay five under Daniel burger four under We'll talk about him then we both have him as our second, uh, high salary play you tell me your picture burger I'll tell you mine I think that he is about even with scottie sheffler and a head of cam smith, but that he's just part of that trio I mean you could talk You could talk burger, I guess and then I could talk about someone else in that trio if you want to do that Yeah, so i'll do burger because I was I was pretty torn between him and cam smith. I think they're both Cameron uh smith and like I think they're both going to be in my lives, but the reason that burger was the guy I chose when it came down to it is You know, it's underdog discount. That doesn't hurt But uh burger bad at the w of phoenix open bounced back at the honda gained nine point nine strokes tea to green and he Gained two point three putting finished fourth there It was a return to form for his putting which is generally very good But lagged in the summer and at the toc back in january burger actually leads the field in the pros past 50 rounds He has a pair of top 10s at tpc sawgrass Lid it up in his one round as you mentioned in 2020 So I think he brings everything you need a 10 five. That's why burger was my favorite But again, I'll be in this range of lots of you to pick someone else. Who would you go with? I mean, I should go cheffler because it's scottie cheffler right now But because I think we can just his chefflers won twice in the past like month I should lay out the case for cam smith a little bit more In 2022. Well, he actually ended the swing season 9th at the cj cup 15th at houston and fourth at the rsm and then he ended up winning The tournament champions fending off some some big names in john rom there, too Then stuck around in hawaii miss the cut hit the sodie open. I forgive that Fourth in at the saudi international and then returned to the pga tour with a 33rd at the genesis with neutral putting but gaining strokes With approach and around the green play with 17th here last year and if you take strokes gain but remove off the t play Which again Keys that but if we're saying if you can just hit the fairway, what do you do from there? That's kind of something you could think about cam smith Leads the field and adjusted strokes gained fairway through green over the past year according to my model So I think cam smith makes a lot of sense this week at the salar that he is Yeah, I think he does as well and like when we're talking about win picks I'm going to be in this range for that as well Like this is going to be the range for me to discuss one thing on note there We talked about brooks before I meant to mention this before He's actually shortened wall. We've been talking because he was 48 around 9 30 or so this morning. He's now 36 so Brooks is shortened as well. It's a little bit of value gone there in case you because we're it's because we are live That's what it is. I think it was before he went live, but I'll take credit Um, we are I pulled not that long ago, but We're moving the numbers You know, that's what I like to be market makers wales. Not really not really anyway mid salary. Who do you like? Sung j m 9900 Um, he sort of faded at bay hill last week really read the pattern T20 yeah, yeah Um, but he's a good bermuda potter 83rd percentile over the past 100 rounds according to fantasy national on the surface for if you're factoring that in which again I'm just kind of looking at overall plotting and not even waiting that in a ton this week But um, he's very accurate off the tee very good short game We've seen him find success here with the t17 If you're kind of just looking for someone hitting fairways without being short I can play good golf from there sung j fits for sure Yeah, I think that it's like Tough for me to decide between sung j and man fits patrick in this top range It's tough. Um Like if I have one lineup probably sung j but I do like maddie fits Let's talk about maddie fits here. Maybe this is my way of coping for losing the head to head Yeah against sung j last week, but like I think sung j is great. I think if it's patrick is great Shane louis you talk about sunday's all talk about if it's patrick here He enters here with forestry top 12 finishes He has done some of that via putting but that's just kind of a known Good part of his game He is second in the field been bringing to putting the past 100 rounds and he's someone who gains strokes off the tee without being long Which is kind of what we were talking about before which is what you want for this course fits finish ninth year last year Thanks to good off the tee play. So $9700 I will take it for sure If I had one lineup I would go sung j but I think that fits patrick is very very worthy of consideration as well Yeah, his iron plays usually what kind of got me off of fits for a while, but it's good now. So yeah, I think that's for sure Okay, who else do you like here in the mid-range? I have tear gooch He's been lingering lately. He's got five top 27s and seven thirds in 2022 The two miss cuts came with poor putting which is always what you want to see whenever you do see a missed cut He's a good or at least above above average bermuda putter I mean he's just as if anyone's listening to the show and every time I talk about Taylor Gooch He's just a guy who's like Good at everything not great at any one thing and that's awesome for courses that test every category So I'm good with Gooch. He finished t5 at sawgrass last year In 2019 he missed the cut However, he ranked 11th in stroke skiing approach in his two rounds compared to everyone else's four rounds Again, if they made the cut Maybe he likes the setup. I'm in on Taylor Gooch this week for sure Are you sure you would say he's not great at approach because like you said he's good at everything but not great at anything I might classify him as being great at approach. It's more of an elite like Okay, he's not elite. Yeah, okay. That's fair um He's also like very good around the green and like the the area where like gooch lags is like off the tee and again If we're gonna pull like you could do like a an archetype stack with cam smith and taylor gooch I could be kind of Gooch is 93rd percentile and adjust that approach 96th around the green I guess he is elite at some things. I'm all in on taylor gooch this week Would you take a taylor gooch versus your neck? Well, you talk about talk about your next guy But I'm gonna ask you if you're dead head probably that guy's tierl hatton hatton We haven't really talked about him. I keep forgetting that he's here but like I think The the reason I kept forgetting is because he does not check that course history box He's actually been bad actively bad at the players. You mentioned the course history matters more this week That's a concern for a guy who's not a real value at $9,500. The loan made cut for hatton was in 2017 Best finishes the 41st However, he was pretty decent in a miss cut lot here last year a good missed cut you may say And he was outstanding where things that's canceled back in 2020 So I can overlook the course history a bit to an extent The form is very good for hatton. He finished 9th, 6th, 4th, 28th, and 2nd the past five events The second was at a very good field in the Arnold Palmer Largely fueled by putting so kind of fluky in that sense But he was decent elsewhere too hatton well rounded golfer quality golfer I'll take that for 95 and I'll do a hatton versus gooch head to head. Why not? Sure Like I like gooch, but I like hatton too. So let's just do it. Let's party Maybe maybe I'm turning my forces around because I won both of them last week. So You're still down by like six bud Aren't you? Uh, five. I'm down. I'm down six Um, I won't mention that I'm way up uh with our wind bets and our bobble hat I'll make it up this week. Don't worry. I'll make it up. I want to make it up I can't make up the bobble hat this week, but I can make up I can't make the bobble hat for like the next month, but I can make up the wind bets Hey, you've done it before I know I know I'm more Let's move now to the uh, the value plays for this week starting off with the guy we talked about in past A couple times rustle henley at nine thousand dollars. What is the appeal for you with henley? A lot um henley, I think is a little under salaried at nine thousand His win odds at 120 to one have just skyrocketed down to 75 and again I've seen him shorter at other books on you know, which you know, whatever Henley is one of five golfers in the field to rank in the 85th percentile or better and adjusted iron play and fairways gained The others daniel berger who we like calling more cowl who we like victor hovland who I like I don't know about you. I'm a quarry conners who we both like I think You know relative to salary great company Uh to be in he's not missed the cut since uh the open back in july He's he has not been great at tpc sawgrass with five missed cuts in eight starts, but When he has made it he's been top 35 and again He's Golfing better now than he was in years past So i'm in on rustle henley. I think he's a fantastic value play I agree. He is also my top pick here again. You mentioned the struggles of tpc sawgrass Best finished 17th That's like the one negative. I see here though ranks fourth in approach in 22nd around the green the past 50 rounds He's above average as a putter of muta. That definitely helps the lack of distance less of an issue this week Then typically is henley 13th the data golf's true strokes gained over the past six months He's 21st over the past a year for $9,000 in this field pretty sick. Uh, so Whether looking at like the more recent form or like the longer term form. He grades out well for both I think that henley Like He's not above gucci for me, but I would put them in the same tier. It sounds like you might have gucci tier above him Is that correct or no? Um, I wouldn't say a full tier. Maybe I could okay. I'd say they're in the same tier, but gucci is above Okay, fair enough. Uh, who else do you like here at the value range? Billy Horschel, I think he He could end up being chalky for a value like relative to being a value play at 88 I think he's more likely to you than kirk. Yes. Oh, absolutely Yeah, because the the name value the the florida angle all this stuff But you've just been all over the top of the leaderboard. Um during the florida swing 16th and second He's actually hitting the irons really well, which is not typically billy horschel's m.o. So maybe there's some aggression coming But maybe there's changes always hard to say you want to buy into larger or smaller samples with younger golfers Which horschel isn't however form has been good before that. I'm 11th the farmers 6th the wm phoenix open He has made Six of eight cuts at tpc sawgrass. He's very accurate off the tee I don't know if you could ask for a whole lot more But anyone who's just matching win odds to salary will be on billy horschel this week. I think that's justified It's not just the odds other stuff too as you mentioned. So I think the horschel makes a lot of sense 88 He could be 95 and I think I think it's fine Yeah 93 Yeah, I think that's fair But I think that he makes sense the reason I might not be there a lot though is because of chris kirk at 78 like Again, I think the appeal is high no matter how you want to build the rosters. You want to go john rom sick plug in chris kirk Go from there. You want to go? Everyone in that 10,000 range in the same lineup sick You can do that with chris kirk. He ranks 44th and stroking off the tee 60th an approach and eighth around the green A lot of his recent uptick has been tied to potting He's not typically good there, but I'd rather have him be good recently than bad It's not like he's that's the only thing he's been doing well. His other stuff is good, too Kirk has made all but two cuts to the players his best best finishes are a pair of thirteens Form now is obviously very good. I will be here to help me get more exposure to the guys at $9,500 on up So I think that I'll use kirk as like a A way to increase my exposure To that 95 and up range specifically just just Unloading the clip on that 10,000. I think that's kind of the key for me So chris kirk no matter which range you want a pepper He'll help you do it and help you avoid ranges you don't want to be in as well I think that's a key appeal for me for this week Let's finish up here with our win picks based on the win odds over at fan dual sportsbook brandon I've already told you what i'm doing. What are you doing here? I didn't say specific guys, but general thoughts Where are you turning to for this week? Yeah, very similar I'm going to pass over the top few and Based on the bets. I've already made them living in this like 20 to 30 range I definitely want to go with daniel burger at 34. Okay um, and I Think i'm going to go patrick cantley at 21. He's not that much Below john rom long term um That I think 21 is is still too long Even though he's not 24 anymore so my three were Cantley burger smith and I was like, oh if he takes burger and smith, I'll just go to cantley So I'll go smith for sure. I'll lock him in. Um I do want to go with that as far as the second guy I could just go burger as well because I agree that he's under salary and it kind of blocks you in that regard. Um I I considered scottie chefler at 29 as well. Yeah, um, that's it's as it's a tall order to win three times back to back Yeah, five starts by advanced back. Um, again, I think some people Say that doesn't matter. I think it does if you just sort of trust very like the mental like The mental loader requires to win a pga tournament event like That's a lot that but also how things break in your favor Yeah, you kind of need to be a little bit lucky sometimes to win like if victor hoblin played didn't you know fall off chefler wouldn't have won last week, but like another thing that's scottie chefler I think at 29 he's he's uh, he's appealing. Yeah, so i'm gonna go Cameron smith for sure. Mm-hmm He's the same odds as dustin johnson. Yeah, that's like disorienting He dig into dj quick and brooks You won't let you see it. Well dj's been putting I can't like Like it's a mental block of like I knew I could have gotten brooks at a better number so like buying at 36 feels like I don't know it feels sinful. Um, it's like very difficult to like Unsee that that longer number. Yeah, um And if you Were to model this out you wouldn't like what you saw from brooks it even 48 so Dead air I know I know I know I know I like go back and edit the podcast at the end I don't cut out the dead air But I like I'm trying to like find to make sure our voices aligned because there are different tracks and like You know, it's it's always hard to look at this park because it's like no one's talking right now um No one cared about that I want to go burger smith and burger burger smith Dan burger cam smith No, rory changed my mind. We're doing it. We're going rory Rory and cam smith Cameron smith daniel burger Pat cantley We're doing it all So we got rory at 21 and can't lay at 21 By cam smith and burger 34 Yeah I like it If burger wins i'm gonna be very sad I can't go more drastic for that because I don't actually care that much, but like i'm gonna be very sad Yeah, and again just a quick note We don't dig into betting a lot on this show because it's daily Daily fantasy focused, but very different things. Yes. Hashtag game of skill Yes, um The since this returned to march we've seen favorites win again. I mentioned that like an hour and a half at this point, but like I'm not I'm not that interested in long shots this week I'm not either Like in terms of like in terms of outright too and like that does translate to dfs too because I want to have fewer golfers In my line up who are in that like below the 95 cut off like that one juice I want that win juice and a lot of guys down there I love cory connor's probably not going to win though like I want to maximize the win juice and Avoiding that range allows me to do so the best way I can so win picks this week I've got rory mackerel and cameron smith you have patrick cantley and daniel burger I feel good about one of those four pulling it off for this week, although I've never felt bad about the win picks so Oh, well, we'll see how that goes That is all that we have here for today on the players pga dfs podcast But of course we are here every week on the number fire daily fantasy podcast Feed breaking down our favorite plays for our fan dual for that week's event So make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed If you're watching over on youtube hit that like button hit subscribe as well Because of course we have this podcast Every week 10 a.m. Eastern on the fan dual youtube page live there If you want to jump into the chat section there as well I'm always happy to try to answer questions as they roll in over there brandon any final thoughts for you On this week's event before close-up shop for today You're pointing the wrong part of the screen by the way. I'm trying to point to your twitter handle No, it's pointing to subscribe buddy Oh, okay. Sorry Get out of here with that. I can't get that far. I'd say embrace the chaos um and That's going to be key this week. I don't get overexposed to certain golfers If you're playing one lineup still Try to be a little bit different without you and you don't have to be crazy to do it, right Be different without being dumb. That's very easy to do in such a good field. I think that's the way I'd view it All right, uh, people have questions for you on twitter. Where can they find you there? At goodwill 13 gdu la 13 and I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in for this week. Good luck to you with your pga dfs Let's go win yourself a big check of your own. We'll talk to you once again next week This has been heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire