 The big game is finally here Super Bowl Sunday, just a little while away. Gabe Morenze, Greg Sussman here with you to go over a few more props. And of course, the most important thing of the week, and the most important bet, the most important decision you'll have all weekend long. That's who to bet on in Super Bowl 53. But we'll make you wait on that one. First touchdown of the game is going to be scored by who, Gabe? It's going to be scored by Mr. Todd Gurley. Todd Gurley, a topic of much discussion over the last two weeks or so, heading into the Super Bowl. I believe that Todd Gurley is actually going to have a major impact on this football game. And all you need to know is you need to learn how to read between the lines. Earlier in the week, Todd Gurley was in a 16 to one range to win the most valuable player of Super Bowl 53. Now he's dipped down to about plus 800 or so. You know what? Earlier in the week, Greg, Todd Gurley was about plus 700 to score the first touchdown of the game. Right now, he's about plus 700 to score the first touchdown of the game. You see where I'm going here? It seems to me behind the scenes, the odds makers and a lot of sharps are starting to buy in. And Todd Gurley really is going to be Todd Gurley in this game. And I am one of them. I think Todd Gurley has an impact on this football game. I think Todd Gurley is in the running for MVP, but we've lost the value already now that it's dipped like the temperatures on the East Coast down to eight to one. But I tell you what, Todd Gurley scores the first touchdown of this game. The question coming in is the health of Gurley. The betting markets, well, they always know, right, Gabe? And if they know, they're telling you something, that means they expect Gurley to be healthy. It's a stock. You know, it's like a stock we're buying low. And the fact is, you know, Todd Gurley is one of the premier backs and players in the National Football League. We're getting this guy at plus 700 to score the games for a touchdown. And I'll tell you what, they're going to want to test Gurley early. We saw Gurley punch one in against the Saints. So expect early if the Rams are able to move the ball down the field early. They're going to want to find out right away. Can what's Todd going to bring to the table? Don't forget, where did he play? Georgia Bulldogs, the homecoming. Todd Gurley is going to have a big Super Bowl Sunday. I'm with Gabe, rooting for Gurley. I think he gets the first touchdown as well. My favorite prop on the board, I'm happy Gabe loves it too, is will there be a successful two point conversion? Listen, guys, when you get those boxes and you get 7-4, you get 4-0 and you get 7-0, 7-3. You celebrate now, you're not going to be celebrating on Sunday. There's always a two point conversion, Gabe. Especially when you have two diabolical geniuses like Bill Belichick and Sean McVeigh. You know at some point, Greg, that there is going to be a time when they're going to be going for two. Now, I've heard a lot of people talk that Fanduil has this option. And, you know, guys, as soon as you stop watching his video, you better get on your computer or get on your mobile device. Move to Jersey. And, yeah, get to Jersey because it's going to take you hours to go through all the props, man. But, a lot of people are talking about the prop. Well, will there be a two point conversion attempt? Ooh, and it's only minus 1-10 and then, come on, man. I guess you're the type of guy that goes to Dairy Queen and gets a vanilla cone. Let's put some sprinkles on this thing. Let's Sunday this thing up. It's the Super Bowl. You think we're betting the Super Bowl to bet on, ooh, all right, there's going to be an attempt. No, there's going to be an attempt and the attempt is going to be successful. Plus 275 cash in. These teams don't just go for two. They convert two point conversions. You're playing to win the game. Herb Edwards said that. He never won a Super Bowl. Hello. Probably never won a Super Bowl prop either. You are going to when you bet yes on converting a Super Bowl conversion. Our next game is continue our prop mess here. The largest lead of the game. Do you think it's going to be, listen, over 14 and a half, under 14 and a half, will this one stay close? What do you think? Well, this number has been moving around a little bit. I saw it at 16 and a half, but generally 14 and a half. It's going to be the consensus number here for the largest lead of the game. It's a dangerous one. You know, there's another prop that I used to fall for in which will any team score three consecutive times in a row? And I think, well, I'll be a close game and that won't happen. And it always happens inevitably. These games are roller coasters. What do we see, man? You know, the Saints, the Saints wrote to a 13, nothing lead on the Rams. Well, I hear the Rams are playing in Super Bowl Sunday here. But with that being stated, we go back to the last 15 Super Bowls. You would have won your bet 11 times playing this prop 11 times that there it has stayed within within the realm of 14 and a half points. I think we have a closer football game here. I think they'll be trading points. I think it's going to be a little slower starting like most Patriots, Super Bowls are and then it'll start to pick up as the game goes on. But no, I'm going to bet, Greg, that the largest lead stays under 14 and a half in this game. Let's hope that two more conversion comes later on. So if it's 14, you're still good or you're right. But or and you can't win them all sometimes, but we're going to try or even better if, you know, if it happens at least in it, somehow it gets to 15 and it's a two and we just cash plus 275. There we go. We'll take that. We prefer that one anyway. I've always been a glass half a full type of guys. Everyone knows games. Game always a half full kind of guy. So we'll kind of split the difference here. Up next, Tom Brady, the guy that's been to nine Super Bowls as of this Sunday. He's not one that succumbs to pressure for the first pass of the game. We'll be caught incomplete. What do you think, Gabe? Well, I'll tell you what, this is pretty much this is pretty much as degenerate as you get after like unless you're going to be betting on a coin toss and for the record, which we're betting on. Yeah, for the record, if you are betting on a coin toss, 52 Super Bowls, 27 times it's come up. It's come up a tails 25 heads. You want to be the smartest guy at your Super Bowl party? Tell people that it's factual. It's true. It's always very streaky as well. But that's besides the point. But this is like betting, will there be a run in the first inning? Except this is even more, I don't know, like the best way of putting it. But it's pretty much the let's call it the Artie Lang special in the sense that this is like what you got to have it. And you got to have it now. Yeah, it's, you know, it's the basalt Super Bowl pick. You know, if you can tell someone, man, you're a loser. You bet on a coin toss. No, no, no, no, no, no. I'm betting on whether Tom Brady's first pass is going to be complete or incomplete. But Tom Brady's been in eight Super Bowls before. All right. He's four for eight, four completions, you know, four incompletions. I'm getting plus 160 plus 170 at this number as well. The Patriots with Tom Brady, they're not like Jared Goff's first pass wouldn't surprise me if it was a little swing pass to Todd, to Todd Gurley. It's a little different when you got Tom Brady. And you've seen Tom Brady often goes deep with the first play to game. They'll get aggressive. They'll try to attack. It's the Super Bowl. I don't see just a boring ho hum play up the middle of the sunny Michelle to start this football game. Plus 160. I'll take a chance here that it's either incomplete or intercepted. He's right. Tom Brady isn't Jared Goff, who they're going to make sure is comfortable. They're going to go deep. And if they do, it's a pretty good chance it's not complete. The fact that he's only four for eight is eight Super Bowls and you're getting this number plus 160 plus 170. Why not? It's simply worth it. Forget the coin toss. Forget Gladys Knight. Forget whatever animal he's wearing. Plus money. Exactly. This is plus money. Plus money. And we know as well, Greg, eight Super Bowls for the Patriots combined three points in the first quarter. Right. They're slow starters. And I don't care who you are. It's the freaking Super Bowl. If Tom Brady didn't have butterflies before the Super Bowl, he wouldn't be Tom Brady. That's what makes him, you know, they're going to be jittery. Teams are always jittery to start these type of games. And like we said, I see, I can see Jared Goff was sort of a safer type of dump off, quick hit to woods, you know, like the Patriots as well. They set things up. Like Brady's not going to go to Edelman on the first play of the game. Greg, like, Oh, we're going to go to that. Sure play that we need on third and 11, right, right out of the game over the middle. No, they're going to get a little cute. They're going to think no one expects us to go deep to quarter. I'll Patterson on the first play of the game thing, right? That's what they're diabolical. That's what they do. I'm taking a chance at plus 160. Plus I got some good DBs. They can knock the ball down as well. Absolutely. A lot of different possibilities that can happen. You get plus money. Why not? All right, let's see to the total for this game game. The over under states at 56 and a half. I know you never want to bet the under. It's just not fun. You going to do it? You know, no, I can't do it. I can't do it. And it's interesting. I've been almost been talked out. I've almost been talked out of betting the over of this football game. If you guys recall, when I talked about the Rams and the Saints, that feels like it was like a month ago, but a couple of weeks ago, you know, in the car for championship game, I said, I like the over this game, but I sort of think it's going to be right around it or maybe just a little under the number. And that's why I think a seven point teaser would come into play here. Now, Tony Romo, who's, you know, I guess this guy's Kreskin, right? He's saying 28-24. And he didn't say who's going to win the game, but he said it's going to be a 28-24 game. We had the opportunity to speak to a lot of NFLers, current NFL players throughout the week, Hall of Famers, Super Bowl champions. There's been a common theme, Greg. They expect a smash mouth lower scoring a football game. But with all due respect, I'll tell the Hall of Famers and NFL players to stick to playing football. Unlike Laura Ingram, shut up and dribble. Let me do the handicapping. And I'll tell you what, if I lived off of what players told me and who they think they're going to win, I'd be poorer than I already am, all right? But no, no, no, no, no, we're not going this route. There's going to be points in this game. There's going to be points. This is the year of the offense. Oh, it's going to run. They're going to go under the number. We have the second ranked offense and the fourth ranked offense in the national football league, all right? Neither team wants to play a 17-14 game. This isn't going to be a 17-14 game. It might start off a little slow. It's going to open up. Now, we're not looking at a track meet here. I mean, last year, what? There was 74 points. I don't think we're getting a 74. I think we're getting into the high 50s, low 60s. 28, 28, 27. I think the number is a sharp one, guys. I really do, but I think it creeps over the number. I'm going to, you know, 31, 28, 31, 27. I'm sort of landing into 31, 27 range right now for this football game, but I got to go over the number and put a record. Look, five of the last six Super Bowls have gone over the number, guys. We're in a year of offense. We talked about it with all our props earlier. Tom Brady threw for like 505 yards last year to Super Bowl. The Super Bowl before that is a foul. He threw for like 434 yards. All right, Nick Foles threw for like 400 plus yards. We're at an offensive age right now. I believe you're going to have to score 30 points to win the Super Bowl. I'm going to go over the number, Greg. By the way, Gabe's score 31, 27. He's just putting enough on there. So it goes over the number. Just gets there. Just gets there. That's why it's the prediction. Listen, they opened this thing up at 59. The odds makers opened up at 59. They also made the Rams one point favorites. That means the odds makers thought the Rams were one point better. But I'll tell you what, all you Tom Brady fan boys out there. Ooh, Tom Brady, me and Patriots. Nye, nye, nye, nye, nye. Y'all ran, oh, the greatest. Ooh, the goat, the goat, the goat. You guys moved the number. But I'll tell you what, the Sharp guys bet that total down. It was the highest Super Bowl opening ever at 59. It got sharply bet down to 56 and a half. I don't know where it's going to go. I'd be lying if I told you if it's going to hit 56. I don't think so because they like this hook right now. But I'll tell you what, Greg, you're allowed to buy half points. So with the 56 and a half, I would suggest that you buy the half a point. You beat it down. You can do it at Fan Duel. It's called the alternate line. So basically, instead of you, you don't want 56 and a half. They'll say, all right, we'll give you 55 and a half for minus 128 or what have you. So I would suggest buy not half point, but I think it just creeps over the number. Dave says over because who wants to bet the under? All right, here we go. Main event time. Rams, Patriots, Super Bowl Sunday, as you just mentioned, Gabe. Patriots opened actually as a one point underdog. By the time you went to bed and woke up on Monday morning, they were 2.5 minutes. Didn't have to wait. I'm telling you, it took about 10 minutes, Greg. About 10 minutes later. About 10 minutes later, the line changed all the way up. The line changed quicker than the Knicks traded Porzingis after the news broke. Gabe, what do you like, man? All right, this is interesting. And you guys aren't going to believe this. Actually, you probably aren't going to believe this. Pretty crazy that I thought about this. The Patriots are now in their 11 Super Bowl and franchise history. I have bet against them 11 times. How's that gone for you? And you got to understand. You got to understand. I didn't always dislike them like I like now. But I thought back because, yeah, you know what? When I was 16 years old, I was betting then, you know? Recreational purposes only. I was betting. I played my first Parley card when I was 12. So I was a veteran by the time we got to that Super Bowl. I was all over the Bears, man. I was one of the best teams ever. The next Super Bowl that they were in, if you remember, Drew Bledsoe, Bill Parcells. And they had those god-awful like uniforms and stuff. And the Packers beat him by 14. Desmond Howard. That game was a push. All right, that game was a push. Then we get into the Brady era, in which I had the Rams laying 14. I lost. Next Super Bowl, I had the Carolina Panthers. I had the Carolina Panthers plus the points. They actually covered long story short. We're not going to go through all 11 Super Bowls. But you know what, Greg? I'm 6-3-1 against the points, Brad. OK. You know what? OK. Well, let's look at Tom Brady. What's Tom Brady against the points, Brad, and the last six Super Bowls? You going to tell me? One, one, it's basically one in five. I should say it's a favorite one in five. OK. You can look back. He covered as a 14-point underdog. They don't cover. Every Patriots Super Bowl has been a three-point game, except when they lost by eight points. Yep. Everyone, you know, it's one of these deals. And it's actually freaking annoying, all right? And it's really annoying. Nobody believes in us. We're the doubters. Nobody believes in you. 82%, 82% of the betting public are on you. That, what do you mean, nobody? You guys upset because 99% of the world's not on you? Well, I tell you what. I am part of the 18% and I'm standing up. It's over. We've had enough. I'm part of the silent majority. The 18%, the LA Rams are going to win this football game. The LA Rams are going to win this football game. Todd Gurley is going to have a big impact. Aaron Donald is going to have an impact. It's going to be a close back and forth game. It's going to be a tight affair. But the young gun, Sean McVeigh, is going to get it done. And the LA Rams are going to win this football game. 31, 27, when it's all said and done in a very, very entertaining, thrilling football game. The Patriots are going to fall short. To me, the difference is actually going to be the speed of the Rams, the playmaking ability of the Rams, the resurgence of Todd Gurley. They've gotten here without Todd Gurley. Todd Gurley is going to get it done. And the fact is, Phillip Rivers is a choker. Phillip Rivers is 0-7 in his life against Todd Brady. Andy Reed, we know all about Andy Reed. They're not playing the Chargers. You ain't playing the Chiefs. You're on a neutral field right now. Sean McVeigh and Jared Goff are 15 and three on the road in their careers, said together. It's like a road game. They're going to be very comfortable. It's going to be a close game, but you look at that defense with the Rams, they're going to be able to contain the playmakers of the New England Patriots. Give me the Rams to win the Super Bowl. Don't be a patriot. Be a part of the 18%. It's much more fun. The revolution. It's a revolution indeed. There you have it. That's the fan new hurry up. Have fun on Sunday. Good luck to you. Bet smart, bet wisely, win some money. And you will, if you listen to Gabe Morenze. For Gabe, I'm Greg. We'll see you next week.