 Hello, good evening everyone. Once again, my name is Ali Hamadi working with Tick Mill on their futures webinar series. This evening we will be discussing the commodity within the agricultural sector, corn specifically. I hope everybody's doing well and has had the last two weeks have done well within the choppy markets. Before we get started, the markets are off to a good start today. We'll see if that continues throughout the day with everything that's going on. As we get started tonight's webinar discussing corn. For those of you that are joining us for the first time I'd like to keep things informal and a conversational perspective, and we'll go into further detail discussing what the outlook is for corn specifically. Okay, here we go. As we know corn is an agriculture within the agricultural sector we discussed wheat two weeks ago, and they are very similar but corn is more versatile than wheat at the time of putting the chart together. Earlier today on through Trading View, the current contract for July 2022, the corn futures contract was traded at 607 as we speak right now. It's down off of that level is trading now at $596.40 and dropping. Okay, that's the July 2022 contract. And where we are with the for December will come back to these later in the webinar, after we look at what forecasts and analysts have to say about corn into the rest of this calendar year and into 2023 and beyond. The July 2022 contract at the time of putting this together earlier today was trading at 604 20 and one year out from now, the July 2023 contract was trading at 610. So this goes back to, you know, getting back to earlier. In the first part of first let's say nine webinars of discussing what constitutes a futures contract what types of curves we're looking for price is where the where the current prices lower or higher than where the futures prices gives you an indication of where the curve is going. Moving into further analytical details and some of the research and data that's been put out for corn this year, looking forward. Like a number of commodities corn prices are driven by supply and demand factors large and dominated by us agriculture policies according to the US DA that's United States Department of Agriculture, and the US is the number one corn exporter globally. Other effects on the supply side include the seasonal factors on outcome of harvest beginning of stocks of corn and yield stocks meaning you know how much stock file how much do they have. Let's say saved up demand factors include industrial use of grains and the animal feed and for human consumption, as well as supply side effects informed countries affecting export demand so to talk about now is the use of corn on the supply or sorry on the demand side and at the same time, the export factors of the countries that are importing it for their needs. The price of corn has skyrocketed this year since Russia's invasion of Ukraine and has a state and has stayed elevated as fears that the world would increase food insecurity largely came to pass. The price has been as high as more than 30% hitting above $8 at the end of April 2022 and closing at 765 by mid June 2022 so once the invasion started obviously a lot of things increased in price within the commodity sector not only on the ag side, but as well as the energy side and raw material side. They have come down since then, as we'll see later what other institutions and research firms have to say what their outlook is, but they have cooled down a bit. As you can see now, it's trading currently at $597. So they have come down off of their highs. The US and China responsible for more than half of the world's total corn production with Brazil, EU and Argentina being the other big producers globally. So Ukraine when we get into Ukraine specifically because it's mentioned within the geopolitical tension is the eighth largest global producer. And according to the USDA, Ukraine's corn production for the marketing year 2022 and 23 forecast to be 25 million metric tons which is down 41% from last year so to keep that perspective, a 41% drop year over year is very significant. But we know why, due to the invasion and the ongoing crisis between Russia and Ukraine. Another big factor that we have to factor in when it comes into the ag side of the commodities is weather. Research from the SMP global institution showed that dry weather is expected to force us corn contraction contraction means tightness down in 2022 and 2023, adding to the pricing pressures. When they, when they say adding to pricing pressures that means it's going to be forcing the price upwards. On corn is expected to decline as a result of the climate change, according to NASA, which yields forecast to drop 24% by 2030 so what they're saying now is they have, you know, NASA has all of this, let's say technology and satellites and weather predictors and and so forth that put in their AI, and it calculates a simulation of data. And what they're saying now between now where the price of corn, not the price but the where the corn is being yielded at what they're being able to harvest. By the year 2030, due to all of these calculations and the weather forecast they're predicting. There will be a 24% decrease by year 2030 and what the corn will be able to yield and what that's production wise, and what they'll be able to use for consumption as well as export to importing countries. That's a very important factor to keep in mind. Barclays Barclays their research noted that there are difficulties that have put upward pressure on corn price predictions they highlighted that the Russia and Ukraine crisis combined represent one of the world's key bread baskets accounting for approximately 25% of global exports with the same disruptions, meaning them not be able to get from point A to point B to a, whether it's sanctions and or here the closure of the black sea, which I put in parentheses. Much of the global supply could stall for as long as the conflict continues. Now this dramatically impacted the price within the European market corn prices, and they have been up more than 30% since the war began so here again we'll be able to see contraction based on geopolitical tension and supply chain disruptions and sanctions due to be countries that are producers of the commodity and being able to get it from point A to point B to the importing countries that needed for consumption, human consumption and or other needs such as cattle and feed and etc. From CRM Agra, corn markets risk coming under pressure as harvest loom, but this is far from a fully bearish market. The drought impacted Brazilian crop is likely to drive additional new crop demand to US markets. China has continued to purchase US corn with, and with every purchase the US stock decreases. So, Brazil's weather, keep in mind, they are in the southern hemisphere so for us living in the northern hemisphere when it's summer, it's, it's their winter and vice versa. They had a rough seasonal drought that produced the amount that they could harvest and end up exporting. China on the other hand, even though they are one of the major global suppliers of corn and producers of corn, they've been purchasing US corn for their own reasons, which could vary for a very number of reasons. Each time anybody is purchasing from the US, it's decreasing their stockpile, putting more pressure on their harvest season and the amount of corn that they're going to be able to stock and yield for the upcoming months. Now, from feednavigator.com, they were saying that corn prices are expected to trade at historically elevated levels for the remainder of this year and into 2023, according to some UK analysts. Through the war in Ukraine, the dryness across parts of Europe and the Americas, alongside the protectionist measures being taken by governments to secure supplies CRM Agri raised its price forecast significantly on the Chicago board for corn on by Q4 of 2022. So here again, we're going back to one of the variables that nobody has any control over, which is weather, and it has affected not only the US and Brazil when they say the Americas north and South America but it's also affected parts of Europe which they are important producers as well particularly coming out of Russia and Ukraine due to their conflict. And then you also have China in the mix has been one of the major exporters of the commodity itself, purchasing from US putting more pressure on the demand from the US harvest itself. This is coming from the United States Department of Agriculture and the US Congress Congressional Budget Office. The USDA's projections released earlier this year in February suggested nominal corn prices could fall from 480 and 2022 and $23 to $4 by 2026 and 27 and then remain stable. And at that level through 2031 and 2032. Now, keep in mind, this is a very long timeframe for them to come out with this type of prediction, and more recent corn price forecast put the average price for the current market at $6 and 75 cents here they're trying to tell us based on their projections back in February now keep in mind what was going on in February there was no war between Russia and Ukraine this is why I've put this in here, just so that you've got to make sure getting back to what I've discussed and across all webinars is doing your research and be able to track historically, not just from a technical analysis but also what's happening around the technical analysis of whatever it is that you're looking at from a futures contract whether it's an agriculture or energy or or any other specific sector. But here you could see specifically when they came out in February, they were looking at the $4 handle for the rest of this year going into next year and then by 2026 and 27, it even dropping further and they're going now and even further to say that, you know, by 2031 and 32 that they expected to stay in the $4 handle, but here we see it currently as we speak right now, it's trading at $597 so you can see the discrepancy not discrepancy but the difference in timing of reports actually happen versus variables that are out of control, and not know what can happen in the foreseeable future. Now the Congressional Budget Office in their report of May in 2022 gave corner price forecast of $6 for this year. Now their current price forecast for 2025 suggested the price could fall down to just below $4 at 395 and slumping further to 390 and 2030. And also this report, even though it's come out after the, the, the geopolitical crisis between Ukraine and Russia, and the supply chain disruptions with getting corn from point A to point B. They're also going out to 2030 and they're also still forecasting right along with USDA close to the $4 handle once we get to the end of this decade. So that's just more for information for you to digest, to look into and look at where it's been historically when it comes to good weather versus bad weather seasons and harvests. Prior geopolitical tensions because this is not the first time we've seen geopolitical tension in our time within the history of humanity for that, for that matter. Keeping in mind that the United States is 247 years old. You know the corn is one of their, if not the biggest commodity within the ag sector that they produce so they've been in and out of geopolitical tensions throughout their history. And they've also had their fair weather, or I shouldn't say fair weather but fair share of weather conditions good and bad from trading economics calm corn futures extended their decline. This is going back within the timeframe of off the peak when it was just above $8 decline to 730 per bushel in mid July, which was just a week ago, the lowest in over five weeks. That's the lowest has been in five weeks prior to this week now, and tracking a broad decrease in agricultural commodities as as investors have digested new data from USDA supply and demand report. I'm expected to trade at 905 spot 69 bushels USD per BU by the end of this quarter, according to global macro models and expectations now looking forward the estimated to trade close to 1000 a little over 1000 and 12 months time, to increase here, the graph that they have put to support what they're referring to. And here's where you can see where it's currently trading, which is right on the dot pretty much it's at 596 as we speak now so call it 600 and 12 months time they're looking at it moving up to to 1000 now this is their forecast. All right, our long only time will tell, but there are our significant other, let's say reports and research analysis that you'll see later in the upcoming slides that will provide more data to support. You know the contraction and demand as that would support a price increase in corn itself. Back into the screen. This is from grow intelligence calm US corn stacks already the stock sorry not the stacks stocks, which gets back to their stock pile is what they're referring to already the lowest in eight years will shrink further in 2022 and 2023. There's going to be more outflow, then they're going to be able to stock pile and save that will fuel for the further price increases in a broad range of food products. Now, the US farmers intend to plant 4 million fewer acres of corn this year because of the soaring soaring increasing fertilizer costs. The existing intentions and intentions number would mean a smaller corn harvest this year, even if grown conditions are ideal us corn total sales commitments are currently the second highest in history, and new and new crop sales remain strong. They're still seeing a very strong demand for the commodity. They are decreasing the amount of harvested area to harvest and plant for corn, due to the increase in the raw materials that are needed to help increase and produce the commodity itself. So this inflation, if you will, they've decided to lower their cost on the harvesting and plant side, even though the demand is still there, and they still have a strong commitment from from importing countries. For future prices are posting new contract highs us corn ending stocks for the current year stocks again meaning the stockpile or forecast at 36.6 million tons and grow predicts for 2022 and 2023 ending stockpiles will decline by double digit percentage to be a significant outflow, more than they're going to be able to harvest and stockpile and save the impact of higher corn prices is luck is likely to be broad based, given its versatility, as it touches a large number of products I mentioned this earlier. We're talking about not just human consumption but you're also talking about for even for ethanol. You know, energy, you're talking about for cattle itself and hog as as animal feed, as well as human consumption, and it's a broad range of and varieties of products that human consumption uses corn, the commodity for use. So the impact of these higher prices is going to hit, you know, importing countries consumers individually like ourselves with higher prices and mentioned here, this in turn will have a higher price effect on the products that corn is used for across the whole board. So, if you're, if you're looking at this from a big picture, and you all of a sudden see that they're not going to be harvesting or planting as much as they had been in the past. That's four million acres. That's a lot of land in that they're going to, they're going to decrease. That's going to significantly affect the amount that they'll be able to stock, knowing that the demand is still there so they still have the commitments for sale so there's going to be a higher sale price. This is a partisan profit margin we're not discussing profit here we're talking about the sale price. So, if you look at it from this context. In theory, the price of corn will continue to increase. Brazil suffered severe yield losses to drought and Argentina's yield is stabilizing from early season dryness. As a result this puts us in a good position to gain additional export sales. So, even though the US is the number one exporter for corn. Globally, other, I don't want to say competitors but other producers major producers globally, ie Brazil, they had a rough weather season as did Argentina now Argentina they say is somewhat stabilizing, but due to those two countries having a rough weather and harvest season. It's putting us at the forefront for more demand, which will therefore decrease their stockpile, which will in effect increase or should increase the price of the commodity as the importers continue to buy it for their needs. On web.com. Their price action there December what they were referring to here the December corn futures increased over a quarter point to six spot 2350, which is up 16 cents for the week and the contracts highest closing price since end of June of 2022 so we're talking roughly almost a year ago that you know it was it was reaching its highs, their 90 day outlook, the inflation trade. I'll get to that in a second faded recently as crude oil and other commodities have tumbled, which means they've declined in price, which could generate pressure, especially from from speculators, continuing signs of soft export demand could limit the price of the outside on net sales for 2022 and 2023 commitments total to 111,000 metric tons, which is down 36% from the average of 172,000 metric tons for the previous four weeks. So what we're talking about here the inflation trade. The whole market knows inflation is in the United States at its highest in 40 years. Interest rates. It's projected that next week, the federal increase, at least 70 or the markets factoring in an increase of an additional 75 basis points. I've seen some reports that they could even increase it 100 basis points, but we have to wait for that till they release that data next week. Now, now that inflation is factored in knowing that there are supply chain disruption issues, knowing that there is geopolitical ongoing geopolitical issues. This is what they're talking about this has faded. It's been all factored in to the market to where we sit right now. And this is where the speculation or the speculators are coming in to say okay. Now that it's factored in, where are we going to place or hedge our bets. Do we want to go long or do we want to go short. If you want to speculate on this particular commodity itself from CNBC calm. Even prior to the war agricultural commodities were seeing some upward pressure amid supply chain disruptions and high transportation costs that are contributing to inflation throughout the economy. Now drought in the western US and elsewhere in the world has driven prices higher we've already discussed that that's been an issue throughout the world for the, the, the global suppliers. In addition to global supply concerns hitting the, the ag commodities broadly corn has also a potential source of additional demand and this gets back to its broad base of use. It's not, it's not very finite in its definition of its use because it has a broad range for use. The US President Biden and his administration. They have temporarily allowed the sale of higher ethanol gasoline over this current summer of 2022 an attempt to offset rising energy costs. Now, for those of you that are connected to the United States and or have relatives or friends living in the US, you will maybe have heard them discuss the higher gasoline prices. Now this is what the administration is currently allowing is for more ethanol to come into the market to try to offset and lower the gasoline prices. Across the states, and one of the main ingredients, not the main ingredient within ethanol, albeit is corn. So that's another one of its uses and brought in broad terms. If you look at their chart that they hit here from CNBC. You know from April, which the war with Ukraine and Russia started in the March or in March. This post war. You can see that the prices come down a bit, but they are still relatively high. Okay, and the, the, the title of their chart here is price of corn hits nine year high. It was loaded here like we said earlier at 840 it was a spot 14 per bushel. So it was hovering around 800. Now it's dropped down to according to this chart by July 18 it was above $6 and now it's trading at, you know, 596 so it's still about right the blue line trend is at the moment but the picture, the overall picture for the price on corn is an increase in pricing trend. The key takeaways for the market overview. Now, we've had overwhelming. I don't want to say evidence but research and data showing that the man will always be there for corn supply is there. The major exporters, IE America have decided to limit how much they're going to be planting and harvesting due to inflationary reasons because of sourcing the raw materials have increased in price which has become more expensive for them to plant and harvest it. But the demand that doesn't mean that if they're going to be producing less that the demand is going to drop, it's going to give a counter effect and the demand will always be there. It's just going to end up costing more. So, you know, as we've seen from various analysts, the corn market is seeing supply demand issues driving prices higher this year and heading into 2023. And then you couple that with weather and geopolitical unknown variables because we don't know when Ukraine and Russia will end up stopping their conflict. It could be long winded and could go on for some time or it could end up, you know, stopping overnight nobody knows. And the weather variable is out of everyone's control, keeping in mind, you know, you've got northern and southern hemisphere exporters at play from Argentina and Brazil and the southern hemisphere and all of the other major exporters and producers of corn in the northern hemisphere. Even though a rise in demand is present and needed mainly from the importer side, the supply is not as available due to them planting less just as I mentioned and the harvesting numbers are forecasted to be lower putting additional pricing pressures on corn. We just discussed that. And once again, we always before taking a position. Now, I can't assume everyone is is invested or within their portfolio has positions within agriculture but if you're going to speculate and you don't have a position for hedging reasons, and you want to speculate on this particular commodity itself. You've got to do your research. And there's a lot of it out there. Gold is a larger corn is a getting back to its use has a broader range of use than other commodities, you know, gold is gold. Okay, we understand what gold is. It has, I don't want to say limited in scope but it's got its scope and parameters set, just as the other metals of platinum and silver etc. Energy oil and gasoline saying wheat falls into corn as an act, but corn has more use than wheat from its from its variability. So you've got to do your research if you want to take a speculative position. We've seen where forecasts are are headed. You've seen where, and I'll go back up here to the price on December's contract. This was at 604 it's trading now at 598. And, you know, one year from now, it's at 610 based on all of the data that we've discussed, providing where the supply is going to be somewhat limited supply chain disruptions, due to being able to get from point A to point B are still in play. And at the same time, the uncontrollable variable of weather which had an effect on South America mainly this year as well as in the US on the western side with the drought forecast to put it as an increase for its outlook and price. Now, is this, this is not advice to say, okay, go why and be long. This is, there's a lot of data out there. And a lot of data is supporting what we've discussed in this webinar that there will be a contraction in the supply, the demand will always be there forcing the price to move up. And that's no guarantee as to if and when that will happen so always know that nothing will ever happen according to your specific timeframe and your needs because that's what you want and that's what you're invested in. So if you take a position in corn within this commodity with futures contracts know how to protect yourself which we discussed in the previous webinars learn how to hedge, you know, set your target, your stop losses, your, you know, if it starts moving in your favor. So take your profits off the table, regroup, take a look at the new data, where is the new data forecasted to be, you know, as we, as we approach now we're in mid summer in the United States, that means we're in mid winter in the southern country because the forecasted weather forecast and etc etc so you see where I'm going with this, and you've got to stay on top of your position at all times. Is this a good commodity to speculate on. It's a good commodity to decide, and you know, in my opinion what I'm looking at is, it's a common denominator as a necessity, and it is used globally for a number of purposes so there will always be demand for it. What will happen with the price. Well, it mainly depends on the variables that I just mentioned weather and the geopolitical tension, and due to inflation in the United States are they going to be able to keep the interest rates. So inflation in check with rising interest rates, we don't know that we're going to see how the market reacts next week even though they've priced in 75 basis points rate hike. In addition to what they've done previously this year, if the increase higher than that how's the market going to react. What's their forecast going to be for the remainder of the year to keep inflation and check. If inflation continues to stay stable and or creep up and the rising interest rates are really not putting a dent or, or, or doing what the Fed would like it to do to bring down inflation. So that's going to only continue to provide higher prices for the raw materials needed, and it could cause further contraction for the upcoming harvest seasons, which, once again, would, would provide price increase on the supply on the supply side which means higher prices for the raw materials and the buyers and the importers. As always I like to end with a comment returns matter a lot it's our capital. Now this is a general statement, and this is coming from the CEO and President of fidelity investments or names Abigail Johnson. Why I put this in, in context is, it's your capital, regardless of what sector, what commodity, what type of futures portfolio that you, you have, or you're going to build you're going to speculate or head with. And even regardless of futures contracts, what type of investment portfolio, you have currently or want to start building capital is capital, and it and the returns matter so this you've got to. Again, do your research can be very careful and aware of the surroundings of the position that you want to take or that you're currently in and understand the trend of the market within the sector that you're are investing in. With that being said, I'm going to open it up for any questions right now. If anybody has any questions, please feel free to send them be more than happy to answer best of my best of abilities. Any questions going once. Yes. All right, I will be back with everyone. Next week on market outlook with a different commodity within the futures options. If I recall correctly, it's, it's not agriculture, it may be interest rates if I'm not mistaken. But, you know, we discussed oil we discussed gold we went over wheat, we discussed corn today so I'm giving you a variety of outlooks and forecast reports out in the market, so that you can have a better idea of, you know, how broad the scope of products and sectors that tick mill is is providing on their platform. With that being said, best of luck everyone this week for a sign off. We are looking currently the market right now the S&P 500 is up 81 points, it down's up close to 570 so it's off to a positive start oil is a little flat gold is a little flat, and silver is also about flat so, but overall the market is up, and we'll see how that holds up the rest of the week with with the chatter on the interest rates and inflation. Have a good week, and I will see everyone next week. Take care. Good night.