 Hello and welcome to NewsClick. Tamil Nadu is one of the states which is going for polls in the current year. On April 6th, the state will go to vote to decide who is going to rule the state in the next five years. To discuss more about the elections and the propaganda which is on the grounds, we have with us Mr. Vijay Shankar, the editor of Frontline. Welcome, sir, for joining us. Thank you. Similarly, to the previous elections, Tamil Nadu is witnessing a multi-cornered contest this year. There is a front led by DMK, ADMK, the Kamal Hassan-led party is leading another alliance and the ADMK splinter group is also leading another alliance apart from the NAMM-Tamilore fetch. So what is your take on the division of votes and who may get the advantage of the division of votes? Before going into the, I want to tell you something about the past history, the recent history of Tamil Nadu elections. Though there have been attempts by another front, third front, actually what is happening is this two-party, two-front dominance has not diminished. Actually it's still going on, that's what I feel. It's still, in my opinion, two-race horrors because I have some reasons to say this because recently we published one article by Mr. Srinivasan which proved that at least in the last six elections he took statistics, electoral statistics. There actually, there were other players in the last three, four elections, not like friends, but like NAMM-Tamilore Katchee and other smaller parties were there. But what he has proved it in this election, electrically, statistically, he has proved something. Though there were other parties, actually the vote, about 75-80% of the vote went to either of these friends. So that situation has not changed as even now, that's what I feel. I think because the statistics prove that. And even on the ground, though there are other players like Kavla Vasan and another person who is in the news very often is NAMM-Tamilore Katchee Seemaan. Otherwise, there is no other significant player because most of them are with either of these friends, two friends, ADM-Kilette friend, DM-Kilette friend. So the vote split theory, it is yet to be proved. We have to see it. Opinion polls show that again, this two-party dominance continues. There was an opinion poll by Pudiyath Alemurain which showed that mainly other parties like Makkal Nidhimayam and NAMM-Tamilore Katchee are very insignificant. Makkal Nidhimayam will score some, make some advances in terms of votes in urban areas. NAMM-Tamilore Katchee is not even making that kind of advance. That is the opinion poll. So I don't think there is any major change as of now in the scene. I think these two friends will share it. But I think from the ground level reports we get, it is clear that it is remains two-front election. And very interestingly about in 170 to 80 constituencies, DM-K and ADM-K are facing each other. Definitely there is no place for another player in these two 176 seats. What is happening in Tamil Nadu is, 2016 assembly election when Jailalitha was alive, such a tall leader was alive, Karnatidhi was alive, then DM-K almost managed to come close to power. DM-K Congress Alliance won about 109 seats. But 109 seats. And the difference between ADM-K and DM-K front was just 1%. Even when Jailitha was alive. So now Jailitha is not alive. Another factor is, after that election, these Makkal Nala Kootani were left parties, VCK, Vidvalay Chirithayal Katchee and Makkal Mdm-K and Vijayagans party, they were all together. They tried to break this dominance. They were not with DM-K then. But 2019, they all came to DM-K. There was a grand coalition which swept the election. So that alliance remains intact even now. But in the case of ADM-K, as I explained to you, ADM-K would be after Jailitha, it is not as united as it was and AM-M-K is taking away some votes. What is happening in the South is because of AM-M-K factors. This Sashikala took a vote against, that is she will teach a lesson against Edapadi. She feels betrayed by Edapadi and in a way, O Peppaneer Sivam. So now she has a personal reason to ensure the defeat of the BJP. And AM-M-K in southern districts where the ADM-K is strong, they are very clear. They made it very open that they are going to defeat of the ADM-K. Though the leader speaks about DM-K, they are on the ground. I think they are going to damage ADM-K in a big way. And what has contributed to this factors, this one year reservation. One year reservation 10% within MBC has actually reduced the space for reservation for this denotified communities like Mukulathur and other sections. It has been reduced to 2% so they are all angry with the ruling party for having considered 10.5% of the 20% to 1 years. So their reaction will benefit AM-M-K because AM-M-K's base is against Mukulathur. So that again is going to cut into ADM-K votes in community-wise also, not only politically, but community-wise. And DM-B-K which was part of the DM-K alliance last year, DM-B-K also walked out feeling insulted by ADM-K. And they are also very clear that they are not going to come to power. So they are going to work against, they also vow to defeat the ADM-K this time. So defeating the ADM-K with a very powerful combination is working in the southern parts of the country. That is what is happening. And Kamala Hassan. Kamala Hassan has some support in the urban areas, urban upper class. So Kamala Hassan's target is mainly DM-K. So what in my opinion will happen is Kamala Hassan will take away again urban votes which would have gone otherwise to ADM-K to be the so-called educated sections, upper class, upper class sections. One ADM-K vote again will erode. So my opinion is, my point is DM-K alliance is intact. There are so many factors which is eroding the ADM-K's vote base. They may lose about 10 to 15 persons, which means it's a complete wipeout. And one more factor, ADM-K made a blunder was in the manifesto. They promised to name Madurai Airport after Muthuramalinga Thever. Muthuramalinga Thever is the leader of Thevers. And Thevers and Devendra Pulavelala, they don't, you know, the traditional rival with their riots in the 1990s. Devendra Pulavelala, that is, that is a section of the list. So that has created a lot of resentment. So all these Mukulathore votes again will consolidate behind the ADM-K, which will damage the ADM-K. That is the scene. One more factor is, this Dalit party called Puriathamilagam, they wanted Devendra Pulavelala. They wanted seven castes to be brought under Devendra Pulavelala. They don't want to be called Dalits. So that, so now they are known as, you can't call them Pallas. Pallas are the major group. So Devendra Pulavelala, when you say call them Devendra Pulavelala, the real Vellalas, they are resenting it. They are not equal. So this cast factor is going to damage the ADM-K in the south. That is the real scene. In urban areas, Mukul Nalakutani, that is the Mukul Nidhi Mayam, will also cut into ADM-K votes. So in my opinion, because of these factors, ADM-K is going to be the real noser. Another major player, or they claim to be so, is the Barja Jansha party. So after allying with the ADM-K, in the general election, they are again aligned with the same party and are contesting in 20 seats. So even though their record is digital, their sister organizations or the Sangh Parivar organizations have been doing different kind of ground works in different parts of the state. Do you think that this ground works benefit the BJP in these 20 seats? No, not at all. See this ground work, it is happening. Actually what they are doing is, they are approaching temples. They first go to temple, they build some kind of organization around temple, they mobilize people, but it is too late in the day. And basically the problem, BJP's problem is, it is completely, it has managed to alienate people of Tamil Nadu with a lot of things, which they did, the kind of rhetoric they have been, they are talking about Hindi, Sanskrit. And interestingly, BJP's candidate list is in English and Hindi in Tamil Nadu, which is ridiculous, people are very angry about it. So BJP, whatever they do on the ground may have some impact in the long run. BJP's real chance or any party, any non-derivident parties chance may emerge only after this election, because this election reminds a kind of competition between the new parties. But what is happening is, AIDMK after Jail Litha's demise, actually it is highly divided. One, this Chief Minister and Deputy, actually the Chief Minister and Deputy, they don't get along, it's very clear and their differences are in the open, they try to, somehow the BJP is trying to keep them united, it's very clear. And AMMK, Amma Makkal Munnetra Kadagam, which is founded by Sashi Kala's nephew, and that party is also reminds outside this set of AIDMK set up. So what is happening is AIDMK is slowly, is on the wing, slowly it's going to lose its base, it's already losing its base, they are so divided. So in this situation, definitely this two-party system, that is duopoly, they call it, two-party dominance, definitely after this election, most probably if, what I think is AMK is going to win the election hands down, after that AIDMK party is facing a big existential crisis, there is no charismatic leader. One common complaint against local people, even AIDMK cadre, somehow they don't find these leaders very attractive, both the leaders, EPS and OPS, and they are highly divided also, and they are divided in caste lines, caste lines also, because the OPS belongs to this Mukulathore community, which is dominant in the south, and they also built a party like that, they built their bases among their caste groups. He's from, EPS is from Kongubelala community, which is dominant in the western region. So what, BJP or any party, I'm not looking at BJP's chance in Tamil Nadu, and there is a possibility of some space opening up. This is the first time after 67 AMK came to power, they have been alternately ruling their state. First time after this election, in the last next five or ten years, there may be, really there is going to be a space for, there will be a space, definitely. Who is going to take it? And BJP with its powers hold over the power, hold over power at the centre, it has been trying to take this space, and they are keeping completely, AIDMK leaders are completely, they're not asserting themselves, they're not in a mood to do it, because they want to be in power, they wanted to be there. AIDMK remained united only because four years after JLITAs did, they had power, that is why they remained united. Otherwise AIDMK would have split long back, or would have not disappearing, slowly the erosion is happening. So even BJP will be growing at the expense of AIDMK. BJP, you know, they claim that their, BJP has present in almost all the villages. Not all the villages, but it is happening. What is happening is they are recruiting local youth, unemployed youth, and they build, they bring them around, and they put them in temple committees, and they are given all powers. You do whatever you want, is what is happening on the ground. Whatever you want, you do it on the ground. In the name of temple, they could go for collections. So if there is some action, we'll take it, because our state power is with us, central power is also with us. So with that, they are trying to infiltrate and see what has happened is over a period, even the Dravidian movement. This because the dilution of Dravidian ideology is stark in AIDMK. Because even Karnanidhi, Mr. Karnanidhi till his last movement, he hold held on to it. In DMT, even now you'll find a lot of people talking about ideology, social justice. In AIDMK, you don't find this letter rhetoric at all. Jelitha, she ensured that 69% preservation. But what is happening is, there is no real ideological basis for AIDMKs. They don't talk about it at all. At least DMT, there is some talk of all the social justice language, all these issues, they keep it alive. In the case of AIDMK, they are completely, there is an ideological vacuum, that will... So it is easy to attract AIDMK, at least the leaders. One likely scenario is with the power, BJP is going to be power and power for some more at the center, it's going to be power for some more years. So with that, they can actually attract a lot of AIDMK leaders at the state and district levels. But on the ground, we don't know what is going to happen because... See, after Jelitha's... Actually, if you look at AIDMK's history, MGR formed the party. After that, after his demise, Jelitha continued and there was a split in the party, later she took hold but Jelitha ensured that MGR is also forgotten. She used to invoke MGR's name only at the time of elections. Now what has happened to Jelitha after her demise, that name doesn't invoke any emotion. Even now people in villages talk about MGR. The loyalty to MGR is still there. But Jelitha doesn't command any loyalty. Jelitha's loyalty, whatever loyalty is out of fear and out of the fact that only she can win elections, even all these leaders, they were loyal to her only for one reason. This loyalty is very superficial. They knew that only she can win elections. Now in the last two years, you don't hear much about Jelitha. They don't talk about it. Some they always talk about Amma. But even now, what is happening is if you go to Chennai Marina, you can see hundreds of people visiting MGR Samadhi and Jelitha Samadhi. But I don't think this ADMT cadre on the ground, they don't have any kind of great attachment to the party any longer. So this space is going to be important. So BJP also I think has a long-term plan. So with their power at the center, they will try to capture or they'll try to bring in district level and local leaders with a lot of other methods, not only you know how BJP uses agencies against top people. And with the lower level, you have you'll offer anything to bring in leaders. So the real danger or whatever in my opinion is this middle level leadership and top level leadership without any comms they may go and join BJP. So then there is a possibility for BJP. In this election, I don't think there is any scope for any. They can't even win a single seat. That is the ground situation.