 Hey everyone, give me just a moment to get all set up here so I can get this on the road for everyone we're gonna do similar to what we did last time and Discuss a little bit about what's going on and then dive right in so let me just post a link out on social All right, awesome. So we should be all set if anyone has any issues with sound or otherwise Let me know in the YouTube chat I am going to be monitoring the chat here as I'm live and Thank you folks for joining me here. It's a lot of fun to be on and talk shop. So without further ado Let's talk a little bit more about Coal essence as a compass. That's the theme of the last several presentations that I've given here That's going to be an ongoing theme that I talk about because it's a core component of my trading style And I believe that coalescence helps us to identify Potential opportunities with greater confidence. It also allows us to have more checkpoints to make sure that whatever our trading strategy is whatever our You know thesis is that we can validate it and we can make sure that it remains Valid through the trade and if it doesn't we can exit and if it does it gives us the conviction to stay in right? And that's important on any timeframe whether it's trading for a few minutes a few hours few days few weeks few months so first things first this is a Presentation on book map. I'm streaming it on YouTube live. The YouTube will be available later So there will be a recording. This is going on from 9 a.m. To 10 a.m. Eastern every Tuesday Except for holidays, you know, obviously if the markets closed. I'm not going to be here and A little bit about me. I'm an experienced trader an investor. I started trading in 2005 I did my first trades actually the dot-com bubble and Learned enough to know that I wanted to stay away and learn more about the market because things didn't really make sense then I got into Amazon And Yahoo doubled my money in them like overnight, which didn't make much sense again So I was like, okay if everyone can make money in the market like this and obviously No one would work. So this is not how the market works, right? So I looked at it a little bit cynically, but I'm glad I did I cashed out And I didn't go back to the market until I made more money for myself in 2005. I started to trade with my own money and Really what I was able to experience as you can imagine was the lead up to the great financial crisis and then the great financial crisis Which allowed me to learn a lot more about trading and also a lot more about macro and Financial plumbing. So that's what I'm all about. I have a lot of interest in What's going on in the bigger picture and then drilling down into the fine details? I look at flows, macro, geopolitics, systematic trading, technicals, trading psychology is also a big area and options that I focus on We're gonna talk a little bit about some of that But first I got to read off a little bit of a disclaimer just after this slide This is just a little more about me traderade.com and macro visor.com That's where you can find me traderades where we help short-term traders sharpen their trading edge Macro visor.com is where we talk about making macro actionable interpreting the big picture into trends that are investable and tradable And you can always find me on my own youtube.com or youtube channel at youtube.com slash at mayhem number four markets mayhem four markets And if you'd like to get up to 40% off of book map go to traderade.com slash book map It's traderade.com slash book map right now and get 30% off or up to 40% off Your book map subscription We've also got a Traderade discount going on that we'll talk about a little later But first we're going to talk about this disclosure all book map limited materials information and presentations are for educational purposes Only should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations Trading futures equities and digital currencies involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors past performance is not Necessarily indicative of future results. We all know that we all get that so let's move forward So the first thing we're going to talk about because this is a market that is driven by options more than anything else And I've debated this subject matter until I'm blue in the face But it really comes down to just math the math is very simple here if you look at total notional value exchanged on a daily basis it is Approximately 1.2 trillion dollars that is trading just through the options market just through SPX alone Just to give you an idea of size. So we'll start there now Let's zoom out total notional value traded every day 70% of it goes through the options market 55% of that 1.2 trillion trading in SPX is in zero DTE's So SPX is the largest options market in the world zero DTE's are driving it Therefore as traders investors whatever our time horizon is it behooves us to be mindful of this positioning and of these levels, right? So that's why I have these charts on screen. This is from a naive model It looks at all positioned at positions on the SPX options chain where there's often over 10,000 contracts active With bought to open as the assumption now obviously we know that not every single thing is bought to open But most of these contracts are so the model ends up being pretty darn close The biggest level to watch is obviously 4400. I think that's going to be a really key level now If we convert that over to ES, there's a delta of plus 9. So that's 4409 on ES now Moving higher this 4 425 level that's been a bit of a magnet pre-market in SPX Which is again 4 4 34 on ES. That's an interesting level You can see there's a decent amount of positioning there and then just above that 44 50 Those are going to be the key levels that I watch and if you're looking at this on ES again It is just plus 9 right so the delta is plus 9 between SPX and ES So watch those levels if we do break below 4400 that is likely to be a volatility trigger And so that would be something that could add to the choppiness in the trade It could also put more downside pressure into that trade So that's something to keep an eye on. We've been really floating up and down around that 4400 level testing it getting You know down to key levels around 43 50 and bouncing back up. We're presently Set to open if we open around here at about 44 30 170 on SPX So that'd be well above that 4400 level for today meaning that we'd have to really put some further downward pressure on the market to see that 4400 level tested so let's talk a little bit more about some of those drivers But the last thing on this chart the one thing that I just want to draw your attention to is also on the net exposure 4400 isn't just the largest level of gross gamut. It's also a bit of a wall of put So that's another reason you get a little bit more potential excitement if we do get below there I don't think we're gonna go above 4500 today But you can see that would be the closest wall of calls to spot price getting above there would definitely Release some more bullish buying And skew has fallen so when we're talking about skew We're talking about options premium, right? We're talking about the premium differential between puts and calls on the SPX index options chain Why does it matter? Well first of all Since 1987's crash, we've always had a smirk on SPX skew. A smirk means that there's more Volatility there's more premium on the put side that has everything to do with improvements and hedging practices and Value at risk calculation that happened since the 1987 crash that means that we've always had a skew towards puts on the SPX Since at least on a longer term level intraday can be a little bit different, right? But what does that mean for us in the context of this chart? Well? We can see that skew levels were much higher during late 2021 and earlier this year than they are now so they're not exactly Subdued but they are quite a bit lower than where they were earlier What does this mean for us in the context of pushing away from the last options? expiration and towards the next with these end of month beginning a month flows this kickoff of Delta and Theta decay it means it'll Probably be a little more subdued now those flows tend to be the strongest in the first and last hour of trade We certainly saw a little bit of that yesterday So it's something to be mindful of particularly in a less liquid market because in the context of a less liquid market It takes less volume to move price more, right? So even though skew is subdued it can still have an effect I just think it'll be a little more subtle than some of the other flows that are coming in and pushing price around Due to it coming down a bit on the other side when we look at single stocks We do see a skew towards call premium on many single stocks particularly the most popular the mega caps You know that has the opposite effect that means that those theta and Delta decay flows actually pull liquidity out of the Stocks a bit because you have those calls decaying and the way that dealers are dealing with this decay in Where they've sold calls is they're reducing their hedges by selling down shares just like in SPX if they're selling puts They're reducing their hedges by buying back futures, right? So that's your That's the origin of those Delta and theta decay flows. That's why it's important to track skew Not just in SPX, but in also the really popular single stocks as well. So I would say The benefit from that skew driving price and acting as a buffer into September options expiration might be a little bit more Limited than what we've seen, you know going into some of the earlier months of this year Certainly July looked a lot different even August looked a lot different now We're starting to be a little bit more subdued into September's options expiration So we'll have to pay attention and then looking at single stock put call ratio This is another side of just gauging market sentiment. We're coming off a little bit of fear We had that fear reading just under one recently. What is this telling us? So if we look at the CBOE where most of the options trading in single stocks and a lot of other products is happening This is telling us the volume ratio between puts bought and sold and calls bought and sold now When we're considering the single stocks most of that volume is going to be buying to open And so we can look at this as a bit of a proxy and say, okay Look if we're getting close to or over one, that's the market getting a bit more scared Obviously last year towards the end of the year you saw a major blowout in fear I think we got to a put call of about 2.4 or so on CBOE Single stock put call ratio. That's pretty nuts as well And that's one of the reasons we actually had that big bounce going into this year because everything got so blown out to downside positioning being way way way lopsided and This is not like that. This is more of just a reset You can see if you go back to about July 10th on the chart that dip below 0.4 put call That was the extreme in euphoria really 0.4 and below as euphoria and single stocks And so when you see that it's generally a good opportunity to wave a bit of a red flag Look around and see if things look extended if there's euphoria in the technicals if there's euphoria in the options Positioning in sentiment and that may be a good opportunity to either raise some profits or hedge Into those types of events and on the other side of it when you get these you know put call blowouts and single stocks Where it's 0.9 and point one and 1.0 and above that can be an opportunity to do the other side of that Maybe start to look at some opportunities or at the very least take off some hedges And you know if they're if they're doing well and hedges have actually been pretty cheap They haven't performed very well this year, but they have been pretty cheap. So really just a volatility catalyst would be something that would set those into better Trading dynamics, but for right now resetting off that fear Looking a little bit here like people are starting to get a little bit more bullish going into last week The reaction to Jackson Hole was basically people are saying Powell's probably done the markets Saying maybe one more hike in November and December That's the reading and and seeing the finish line to this tightening cycle is given the market a little bit more Optimism going into next year where it thinks that we're going to see you know at least a hundred hundred fifty bits of cuts And so here is the chart of the S&P 500 e-mini futures contract for September and we can see a couple things on this chart that You know are both Optimistic and pessimistic are good and bad glass half full class half empty, right? I like the fact that we had these head fakes lower and moved higher twice now and you can see it in those wicks Right though wicks in late August that broke below that blue line That's constructive to see that kind of head fake lower and then an immediate rebid the same day Basically telling you you know what the market does not want to trade down here And we didn't do that just once we did that twice Right, so that's constructive. We're still in the Ichimoku cloud though So we're we're trendless based off of that analysis meaning it's likely to be more volatile as we discover trend and We do see RSI on the rise it's below 50 But it is looking more constructive here off of those oversold or slightly oversold extended levels we saw during mid-August and We do have the 20-day moving average just hovering right above us We've been rejected off of it. So that was a little bit of a concern just the number of times We've been rejected off that 20-day moving average It looks like three trading days in a row and then just pre-market here a bit as well That's going to be my key area for today is really watching that 20-day moving average And I'm just using the simple moving average nothing Extraordinarily fancy because I think the market's looking at this level as a pretty Important area to challenge if it can break above it I think we get a decent amount of upside momentum if we continue to reject below it I think we retest this high volume node and possibly some of those recent lows So that's a longer-term view in the context of today I think just watching that 20-day is going to give us a lot of Trading information in terms of making our decisions and then that 44 25 level is probably going to be a bit of a pivot Above that might be a little bit safer to take intraday longs. That's going to again be 44 34 on ES And so the bullish talking points for today above this key level of spx 4400 and yes 4409 is constructive and also above this secondary level of spx 4 425 and yes 4 434 at least if we are able to break above that that would be constructive We're not there pre-market right now RSI is rising though not above 50 constructive buying as we talked about every time we tried to break below that closest high volume node it led to these bullish fake breakdowns and reversals Markets pricing in the end of that Fed hiking cycle is discussed vol remains quite low and There's actually room to compress a bit farther here if the market remains constructive and stable and rates seem to be peaking in the short term rate vol has also come off a lot Looking at the move index and looking at some of these currency volatility trackers They've come off quite a bit as well the bearish talking points however Deserve to be discussed as well We cannot seem to break above the 20-day moving average on the daily chart for the S&P 500 e-mini I and the SPX. I think that's important. We are stuck in this itchy mochoo cloud. We're a bit trendless I think that's important as well Despite the two recent fake breakdowns buyers have not really been able to push the market much higher so that 20-day really is the line in the sand and Commodity prices are on the rise again propping some concerns about a reacceleration of inflation We did see a little bit of that from July's data. We do get PCE data this Thursday So that's certainly something the markets gonna pay attention to going into later this week And then August's inflation data that we get in September is something that people are factoring for again potentially some year-over-year Acceleration as a theme and potentially some month-over-month as well so that's Really the big chunk of the slides. We're gonna get into book map in just a moment But I want to give everyone just a sense as to what all's on offer here If you'd like to check out traderade.com We've got a coupon called book map 30 you can use it check out for 30% off any traderade plan or course This offer is open for a limited time So take advantage of it if you'd like and then if you'd like to buy book map itself for up to 40% off go to traderade.com slash book map scroll down to the page you're linked to in the specials We'll show you the offers and finally Macro visor.com where we make macro actionable has a 30% discount sale going on right now until next week So let's talk shop in book map. Let me just go ahead and pop us in So here we are I'm gonna zoom out a little bit so we can look at some of these key levels So first of all you're gonna notice that I have something on my book map that you may not if you use book map It's this options column This is some code that I wrote to analyze that spx options chain that I was talking about and visualizing earlier in the Presentation and just because we're all you know wanting to be productive and also quite frankly. I like to be lazy I don't want to have too many screens open So let's see here looks like something happened on the discord stream. Give me one second All right, I need to change it All right, there we go All right, so, you know this column essentially allows us to visualize key areas of SPX options positioning within the convenience of book map Why is that cool? I mean, I think you know why that's cool But I'll just talk a little bit about why I think it's cool because these levels are often relevant in the context of what we're trading and So we can see things like where there'll be a key area of resting liquidity That also lines up with one of these key levels and when we start trading We'll probably see a little bit more of that but you can see a little bit at this 500 You know, let's let's see how the market opens and where some of these Resting bids and offers come in but often there's some coalescence there which just adds to confidence It's nice to see this because we do often have a pretty big amount of price Interactivity with key options levels and this is updated about every two minutes. This is yesterday's hot call It'll update as soon as we get that data from CBOE this morning The hot call is the hottest or the most active call and then this we have a hot put as well Which you would see lower here. It's probably overlapping another level there It is hot put that's gonna be the most active put on the day and we often see interaction between these levels And this whole thing is a work in progress I'm gonna actually add a lot more features to it as time goes on Including some visualizations inside book map later, but this is something that you know I hope to offer on the book map marketplace I'm gonna talk to their dev team a bit but for right now It's on the trader aid discord server on the live stream That's pretty much running 24 hours a day and then I also like to have the liquidity differential iceberg stops and Cumulative volume Delta. I find volume I find value in every single one of these and I know that Everyone's trading styles a little bit different, but when I'm looking at the icebergs I'm thinking of them as larger institutional players and when I'm looking at the stops I'm looking at them as smaller traders retail smaller firms prop desks things like that and So one of the things that's pretty interesting to watch for is divergences between the two like if you get a big stop run Price blows out higher, but icebergs are selling into that So you get this big ramp up and stops by the thousands you get icebergs selling by a similar amount Sometimes that can tell your reversals about to happen because big money is dumping into that That pump that pushed out a lot of stops So that's something to Hey hum for your mics open. You might want to mute that buddy Thank you. All right, so basically going into today. I don't have a strong bias yet I'm really looking at that 20-day moving average. I think being below it sets us up for a little bit of Potential bearishness, but I don't want to be too biased going into the first hour of trading Because that's where we're going to see the tone for the day septically within the first 15 to 30 minutes as we establish them key opening ranges. So going into today Let's watch how the market opens. We do have some pretty big data Coming out at 10 a.m. As well Jolts is going to tell us a little bit more about job openings and how tight this labor market is and I do expect if the number comes in meaningfully different than last month that it could have an impact on rates and that in turn could have an impact on some Of the more rate-sensitive stocks, maybe the NASDAQ and the Russell get more impacted than the S&P 500 But it's something to just keep in the back of our head that these macro data prints in the short term as Algos interpret them. They can have some influence on price action as well and Jolts if it comes in meaningfully different than what we saw last month that can be where that price impact happens. If it comes in in line I don't think it's going to be much of a big deal like basically last month's number. If it comes in meaningfully lower Let's to say there's a lot less job openings. I think that would actually be seen as bullish The reason I think that would be seen as bullish is you'd have yet another milestone to say Okay, the labor market is actually starting to slow down. That should bring rates down on the long end That should give a boost to stocks particularly tech and small caps, right? And the other side of it, if jobs come in much hotter than expected That you know in the openings from Jolts and this is something you can apply to you know Non-farm payrolls on Friday as well But if you see a meaningful build beyond what the market is pricing in beyond what we saw last month in openings That's going to tell you the job market is tightening more That's likely to push up rates on the higher end and that's likely to have a negative impact on the more rate sensitive parts in The market like the Nasdaq and the Russell but could also You know push the S&P a bit lower So I think Jolts will be an important data point today to monitor I think it's the most important macro data point that we're going to get today But this week it's going to be all about PCE and non-farm payroll So as we get into the end of the week I think it's going to be really important to have a good sense as to what the market price is in from that PCE data Whether it starts to interpret it as you know This is a reacceleration of inflation knowing what the market's looking at is really as simple as looking at the reaction in the 10-year note yield within about half hour an hour from that data release You can get a better sense as to what rates markets are thinking and You can always look at the two year as well That's going to give you more of a sense as to what the bond markets pricing in for the Fed the 10 years more of a proxy of Concerns about the economy and inflation, right? So if you see rates moving higher in the reaction to data Often is the case that that's the rates market telling us that you know This is strong data or it's prompting a concern about inflation or both and this idea that the economy is Running above trend that it's not really cooling down It does add to some of those concerns that inflation could reaccelerate So the market's going to be paying even closer attention to some of these data prints Particularly if they start to tell that narrative then sequentially they'll become more important as well So I think that's just something that we should pay attention to as traders and market participants What all is going on with this data and more importantly? How does the market react to it? Now going into major data points particularly something like Friday the market is typically going to hedge into that to some degree Right, and so you're going to see some immediate reaction in the in the equity market that may not make as much sense That's why I like to look at rates a little bit more I feel like the pricing and what you see in rates is a little bit more transparent than equities within that key period of like 15 minutes half hour hour after the data release similar you'll see that with the Fed and you know other key economic and other key event volatility catalysts So while I'm talking here Just wanted to open up the opportunity if anyone has any questions about anything feel free to pop it into the discord chat and Tag me so I know that you've asked a question and you're also welcome to pop it into the YouTube chat Either one whatever works best for you. Just let me know if you have any questions We've got a couple minutes here before the open and You know I've kind of given you all the rundown of everything so it's a good point to just take a pause here So someone in the chat on the YouTube asked long or short and I kind of covered this earlier But really we're looking at that 20-day moving average on the daily chart as a key pivot I think that it's it makes sense to be a little more constructive above 4425 spx And that would be 44 34 es Coming below that I think 4400 comes on the horizon breaking below that would would make this decisively bearish I think if we go below 4400 vol trigger gets hit and we probably see much more selling on the other side of it If we can push above that 20-day moving average, I would have a lot more conviction about a long side trade Even intraday. All right, looks like there's something on the discord here I'm just gonna check it out Would you please touch base on what you're looking at in the liquidity differential sub chart to gain insight? And this is from slowdown on bookmap Yeah, great question. So really what I'm looking for are extremes So the liquidity differential when it gets really really high typically you see more aggressive buying Sometimes you even see singles print where you get people just basically smack in the offer that agnostic about price Just trying to get filled that can be a couple of different reasons that that happens Sometimes it can happen because of aggressive short covering other times it can happen because of aggressive buying Either way there's a motivated party on the other side And that tells me that that's something to pay careful attention to particularly if it coincides with a stop run Because if it does that's telling you a short just got blown out And that could be a good opportunity if the icebergs are going the other way to say Maybe it's time to start fading this move if we see a confirmation in price action with what the flows are telling us Let me know if that helps. That's one way. I like to use it So just about a minute until the open Once the market opens you start to get a better feel for things because you know pre-market It's just not as much participation But once you actually have the cash open and more institutional players start to come in You'll see these key levels on bookmap these resting liquidity areas offers above bids below start to populate You'll also see more activity in the icebergs and the stop. So we are now opening Ding ding ding ding. There you go. That's my version of the opening bell. I'm sorry. I can't hear you at all your mics Kind of breaking up there. All right. Thanks for meeting there. So yeah, we are opening up We've got just a little bit of a boost here It does make sense if you think about the Delta and theta decay flows in that first hour You could have a little bit of a boost off that subdued versus what we would expect otherwise But still possible to see a build and you have this 259 resting offer coming up Now building up to 260 just above us just around 44 54. Let's just zoom in a little bit here Get a better view of everything that's going on and I've added Nasdaq tenure notes and crude in this Visualizer just to you know plug around a couple different futures contracts I like the S&P visualization the most in book map because it's so liquid But you know looking at some of these others is still pretty cool, too. It's gonna be helpful And we weren't even able to fill that guy up there You do see some stops blowing out nothing of note though just 87 contracts What is the name of the indicator on the green side? Could you let me know which column you're talking about? This is a question from the YouTube chat Like is there a label above it? Oh Someone bought some big bond exposure here. Look at this. This is the end and got a hundred and fifty contracts blown out to the upside in a stop and This is just noteworthy because you do see some demand coming in to the longer end And this is ahead of that jolt status. So we'll pay attention to that Typically if bonds are bid it will help to subdue pressure on stocks. So it's worth paying attention to for that reason as well So Khaled, I'm just waiting to hear from you about which what the label of that indicator is and I can help you out there And for what it's worth for those out there watching. I Have the 20-day moving average at about 44 54 ES That's gonna be about 44 45 SPX So that's gonna be our key level to watch I think if we do push above there getting Long makes more sense because I think you will have a pretty good amount of follow through everyone's watching that level I do like that. We're above 44 25 on SPX and 44 34 on ES I think 44 34 and ES is a pretty important level to watch here as we open and really for me I would be looking to try to take a trade off a break above the 20-day moving average if we're if we're fortunate enough to Get that I think that could make for a long scalp higher We do see some more resting liquidity starting to come above us here So that is telling us that there are more players that are saying, you know what? I don't mind getting out of this market a bit higher, but I do feel it's going a bit higher So look at that you've got that sort of I kind of call it like it's almost like they're building stairs because you start to see these levels Build and build as price moves higher. So we'll see but so far this is looking like they want to pull price a bit higher here We also have constructive action albeit small on the iceberg front And that just means institutions have been getting a little bit long You got 127 positive Delta nothing to write home about but certainly no big selling here by them And they keep pushing price just a little bit higher here. So so far constructive on this open And again, we're watching that resting liquidity these offers building above us You can see more and more one of the things that I do on book map You can see these labels They have a free plugin that you can add in where you can set labels for liquidity And I like to set the label at 250 or more for me I feel like that matters right to if it's less than 250, you know You kind of see it in the heat map you can you can look at it for what it is But if it's more than that I want to know about it and I want to see it kind of Broken out from the other levels as such so I do do that for these on s on es Right, I do that for resting bids and resting offers where there is 250 or more contracts Just so it stands out a little bit more because when you're trading you might be paying attention to a couple different things at once And so to have something that kind of gets your attention like that it can help me and Again, that's a free plug and you can add in so it's pretty helpful to have that just to get a sense as to what's going on We see a little bit more stops being blown out to the upside 107 contracts on that last little push Institution selling just a little bit into that maybe about a hundred contracts. You can see it on screen 111 now So we'll zoom back in a little bit here because we've got a decent picture as to what's going on But it does pay occasionally to zoom out Check some of these areas above below see what's going on what's been changing see where the if there's any Evolution the options levels that we're watching. Let's just check back in here on This tenure it's still bid It's got a decent bid in it so far and there's a pretty sizable amount of liquidity higher here So we'll have to pay close attention to that especially in the context of jolts coming up in just about 23 minutes here Let's look at the Nasdaq. Look at that move in the Nasdaq. We're not seeing that in the S&P That's pretty impressive and that makes me more bullish on the S&P Seeing the Nasdaq perform like this because this is a riskier higher beta index and it tends to pull the market around with it So looking the Nasdaq getting a better bid here. It's hard not to look at the S&P and say, huh? I wonder if it's gonna catch up so something to pay attention to we'll watch the Nasdaq for a minute here Well, they're just selling that bid right down though The Nasdaq is way different in the way the liquidity Comes and goes I think it has to do with the S&P futures being used much more my market makers and Nasdaq much more driven by You know really just straight up algo traders and there's some differential I mean SPX most of the volume in it believe it or not Well, most of the volume in ES is from SPX options trading. Let's put it that way So we are reversing this looks kind of nasty You had that bid and rates. It's coming off a bit and the Nasdaq selling down Spoo's got a little bit of pressure there, but didn't look quite like the Nasdaq So let's watch this high beta beast and see where it takes us This white line here is going to be the VWAP. That's calculated based on Trading since the open at glowbacks of 6 p.m. Eastern So just so you know what you're looking at and this yellow line here is going to be the point of control So that's based on where most of the volume has traded And within this context it's going to be within about the last similar period since glowbacks open So you do see institutions buying this Nasdaq being that's being offered lower you do see stops of Longs getting blown out. So that is interesting I would like to see that to a larger divergence between the two to become more constructive But it is at least giving us a sense that into this weakness where smaller players are being blown out Institutions are accumulating So that's it's hard not to be a little bit constructive seeing that but again would like to see a little more But you can already see price is starting to follow what we're seeing in flows, right? So let's see how that goes and we'll check back in here on S&P. It's still Divergent from the Nasdaq wouldn't you say it just doesn't look like it's having the same level of volatility and obviously It's a much lower beta trading instrument, but when you go between the two the contrast is stark Let's go back to rates here, and so they're seeing just a little bit of pressure But overall stable most liquidity is above us here. You can see that by the way you see this 216,000 and this 189,000 first of all what an incredibly liquid order book for over 400,000 contracts on the tenure in this order book, but there's a 27,000 contract Delta, right? You can see it. It's a little bit clipped off the side But you can calculate between the two that means there's more liquidity to the upside here on offer Here's crude. We haven't taken a look at this one today. It's under a bit of pressure here That's usually good for stocks by the way stocks like oil falling unless they're energy stocks And as it's almost as if it heard me look now it wants to come back higher Got to love that Nasdaq's make it a push here. We we see a little bit of distribution that a3 iceberg sell here But they are making that push and we saw some signs that that could happen with the distribution Between what we're seeing with with small Traders that were long being blown out and then larger players accumulating It's a sort of classic setup. It was smaller than what I would have liked to see to call out along in it That's why I think it's very choppy. But if this was a bigger divergence, I would have said, wow, that looks tempting So let's pay attention here. Let's see if we get any more of that Same sort of divergence So maybe they run it lower again blow out some more stops institutions on iceberg it and then we get that move We'll see But that's the setup that I like. It's a higher probability trade in this chop Going back to the s and p 500 We'd see the opposite in the s and p 500. Is this interesting or what you've got? Uh stops pushing in Like basically shorts are getting blown out forced to buy right covering their contracts and you have institutions selling here It's not huge. You know, you're looking at a divergence between the two of about 660 655 But uh, yeah, the institutions are selling the spools And buying the cues And that's something It's pretty interesting Like a little bit of an intraday rotational flow It wouldn't make a whole lot of it yet, but certainly something to keep an eye on And remember at about 18 minutes, we do have jolts coming up And that could move these markets You know, I I love to pay close attention to how rates react to that data. So I'll be looking at z n Unfortunately, that data drops about the moment. I have to drop off the stream But uh, yeah watch rates look nasdaq's breaking out here So this you might you might want to consider an opening range break to the upside here in nasdaq with what we're seeing That is looking pretty constructive so far And and you can see it in the way that this is trading just from a very simple technical pattern perspective You made this low Right and you had this prior high. So you made a higher high a higher low and now a higher high Right, so we'll see maybe if we retrace here. Do we make a higher low and push higher? Let's see how this goes Either way, it's looking constructive And in just a couple minutes here, it'll look like it's a 15 minute opening range breakout on the nasdaq Now to compare and contrast. Oh, look the spoo's got their bid All right That's good to see 1400 contracts blown out by stops. Look at this here this 956 Ouch to the shorts that we're betting against this this morning A whole lot got blown out and you do still see liquidity building above, right? That's a key thing to watch. You still have that 281 up here and you have a You know just a fair amount of liquidity building above in es and people taking bids away below That tends to be constructive in today I'm not a huge fan of the stops being blown out of the small traders to the upside and the iceberg selling into that That is the only real concern. I have otherwise. This looks pretty constructive. Let's look at rates Nothing to see there. Let's look at crude still pretty darn weak Going back to the cues here because that's where the excitement is today You can see why people love trading the nasdaq because it is just a beta beast If anyone has any questions, I've got about 15 minutes left Feel free to pop them in the discord chat room or in the youtube wherever you'd like If you do pop them in the discord, please tag me so I can make sure to see it Nasdaq's got a healthy bid. Look at those big buys coming in those big buy side deltas coming in pushing price higher So at this point, we can say this is a 15 minute opening range breakout to the upside. The nasdaq looks bullish Intraday momentum traders that trade-off opening range would be taking lungs into this That may even be some of what we're seeing here. Let's check back on our friend the spools here And they have a bid it's not quite as aggressive as what we're seeing in the nasdaq But it looks like it wants to catch up now. Look at that. Got some pretty strong volume coming in on the buy side And we are making that push above the 20 day moving average What did I say? I said that was where it would be a good spot to consider taking along. Let's watch this closely Testing it right now Had a little head fake above Can the buyers do it? Nasdaq's already up 0.41 percent s and p lagging up just over a quarter of a percent Russell's not buying much of this rally so far not as much of a risk appetite in small caps here But s and p can tend to continue challenging this key level 20 day moving average This is really important if we can break this level. I think the buyers get Pretty darn long And this is all happening in the context of we've got a big data drop coming in 13 minutes You got to love that set up too For bears looking to short this thing. This is where you would short it For a good risk reward in the sense of you're right there You know if you're wrong above the 20 day moving average But it's hard to be very bearish of this thing when it just made a 15 minute opening range breakout So let's see for me I would like to see a more clear rejection Of the 20 day moving average or a more clear breakout before I take any trade here on the s and p The nasdaq is clearly breaking above its 50 15 minute opening range and continuing from there So that long trade would already be on If I was trading the nasdaq today, I'm looking at the s and p more closely and the nasdaq is a guide And the s and p continues to test that key level kind of keeping us all in suspense Yash asks He's he says he's or they I'm sorry if if I didn't get to correct there asks if How do you configure the Dots the bubbles Oh, okay. Let me see. So are you talking about the um The stops and icebergs the blue and the red dots. Is that what you're referring to yash Folks if you're in the futures training room on book mat, please do mute your mic just so we don't get any reverb So it's really uh, you can imagine someone just kind of Building the suspense on the drums here Just chopping away at the 20 day and this tells you how important the level is if the market needs to sit here and build volume And build volume. The good news is it's trying to potentially build in some support Uh, but yeah, we really do need to see that break to get some level of conviction here for the long side Let's check on the old nasdaq Continues to move higher looking more constructive than the s and p Once again a leader of momentum intraday Someone asks doc holiday asks in the book map room Do you have any videos that help explain those lines and what they mean at the bottom of your screen? There are um, some good videos on that from book map um In terms of what the sub chart means but to give you a really quick breakdown doc because this will likely benefit everyone else watching um And folks again, please do mute your mic if you're coming in to voice So we don't get any feedback. So uh, if you're looking at the sub chart there, the light blue line Refers to icebergs, which you can see on the lower right quadrant The uh bright red line refers to stops The white line is the differential liquidity between buyers and sellers and then the currently green line is the cumulative volume delta So what does it all mean? It's tracking these cumulatively right except for the the liquidity differential That's just real time looking at order book delta the balance between buyers and sellers So for icebergs and stops, we're looking at those cumulatively if they're moving higher It means there's buying happening, right? So if icebergs are moving higher You've got institutions that are accumulating the faster that moves the more aggressive that accumulation is happening So if you see a sort of like vertical jump or a gap higher basically in the uh iceberg measure That means someone someone big just bought a whole Giant chunk of exposure and just like with stops if that's moving higher You've got people that are basically being stopped out, right? So you've got shorts that are being forced to use buy stops Or you got some traders that are just using buy stops to trigger longs for whatever reason But most of it is going to be shorts getting stopped out So that's what those two lines are all about cumulatively volume delta is just showing you Kind of who's showing a little more aggression the buyers or the sellers right now that CVD line is about 2400 So that's showing you net net that there's been 2400 or now 25 26 contracts bought in excess of contracts sold So that's just telling you that buyers are trying to do a little bit of the lifting today Which makes sense with the price action and then finally with the liquidity differential What you're looking at is kind of real-time the order book right and and very close to to to the spot So if that jumps that means that someone's crossing the spread and getting really aggressive Just smacking the offer and if it falls, it's the opposite someone's smacking the bid So those are usually forced or just very uh aggressive So let me know if that helps doc and hopefully that helps other folks as well Yeah, no, you're you're welcome. I will be here every Every week on tuesday at 9 a.m. To 10 a.m. Eastern So we can continue this conversation because I do want to make sure everyone gets benefit of how i'm using bookmap What i'm doing why i'm doing it you can also check out by the way I've done two other videos that I think you might find helpful Just understanding my whole setup and getting into the nitty gritty of how it works So you can check those out on the book map stream now. We do see the nasdaq pushing higher here Let's check on our friend the s&p. It is trying to break above the 20 day moving average here So we'll give it just a little bit more, but it's looking very constructive here I'm getting more inclined to want to put on a long But I do want to see just a little bit more meaningful of a push higher here I don't want to get along in just a point and a half above a q-level I want to see it, you know, maybe three four points. So we've got some real Decisiveness in there. I'm okay with taking a little more risk to have a better probability That the trade goes off if that makes sense And for yash, um, let me see. So you're talking about The volume numbers with the green dots, okay So if you're talking about the main chart, there's there's the stops and the icebergs that are like the 956 red dot and the e 235 blue kind of Triangle or diamond below it. Those are going to be stops and icebergs If that's what you're talking about And then if you're looking at some of the um The labels like the white labels those are going to be labels for large Like noteworthy levels of resting liquidity anything 250 contracts and up So hopefully that helps if you have any follow-ons. Let me know if anyone has any questions. Let me know I've got a balance in about five minutes here Really fun hanging out with everyone. Hope you all enjoyed the stream You can see we're kind of rejecting off the 20 again. Don't like that much That's why I don't like getting in those trades just a point higher. I need to see some more validation So if we do reject below it could set up a bit of a short But um right now everything is just sort of I guess you could say testing ahead of key data Wouldn't you know it Keeping us all in suspense before we get that jolt's release, which is uh, just exactly what you would expect the market to do, right? Yeah, absolutely doc in this channel ask me questions during the stream and uh, you know tag me in if you can Sometimes i'm not in the channel at the time. So like if you look above it slow down He tagged me in um, and then I can try to answer those questions for sure You're welcome. Yash. Happy to help I hope everyone did enjoy this though. I again, I do enjoy doing these I was elated when bruce reached out and gave me the opportunity to present to you all regularly I like what book map does. I think the software is really cool This s and p retrace here is looking pretty bearish The only reason I don't want to take a short right now Is we've got a big data drop in four minutes And I don't want to get caught on some kind of crazy volatile chop when the liquidity disappears in this market But this is starting to look a little bit bearish here And jolt's can change all of that. That's exactly why i'm not getting too aggressive, right? If you look at how data drops can affect price action where the the resting liquidity gets pulled back meaningfully into those data drops Um, that's something that if you haven't seen it happen You will see it happen And uh rates are still moving lower prices inverse to rates, but we did get just a little bit of a sell there NASDAQ is reversing a little bit Everything is looking skittish before this data. I don't like the look at all This looks really not great. We got 331 stops blown out from longs presumably And you see the divergence starting to grow here Iceberg showing institutional selling stops showing people getting blown out of their shorts That is a bit of a bearish look too You're welcome slowdown really appreciate the kind words my friend. Thank you. Looking forward to coming back next week And I hope everyone has a great rest of your trading day and trading week. You can always find me on twitter Mayhem four markets mayhem number four markets. I'm also on youtube and reddit with the same name And so you can find me on all three platforms. I just started going on reddit recently. It's a pretty interesting place I make content regularly on my youtube about trading and about macro. So it's it's pretty cool to check all that stuff out If you miss this stream If you didn't catch the whole thing and you want to catch the beginning where I do my Presentation and talk a little bit more about the setup going into today You will be able to check that out on the book map youtube And someone just specifically asked me what my youtube channel is. I'm just going to read it out so that Everyone has it available It is youtube.com Slash at mayhem four markets. That's mayhem number four markets So you can find me on youtube check out my content I'm working on Putting on more videos. I've also got a book map stream that runs on there It doesn't have all the bells and whistles that you see on my screen That's reserved for our trade raid members, but it has a lot of good stuff And so again, we're going into jolts one minute left this data point probably decide the trend in today We did have a bullish opening range breakout in the nazdak and to a lesser extent the s and p But we can't get above that 20 day moving average. I want to see a break above it So I'd want to see like 44 60 or so before I really want to get long this thing So let's see what the data looks like hotter than expected is going to be bearish probably But we got to see what rates say lower than expected could be bullish because it could show the labor market Giving us some more slack. So once again, it's been a lot of fun presenting to you all today I hope you have a great rest of your trading day and week and I'll catch you next week at 9 a.m