 If you've listened to this show long enough, you probably know I am not a big value chaser at pitcher because I just want to maximize points. And for the most part, value plays are value plays for a reason, especially at this point in the year. So for the most part, you know, I'll talk about one value pitcher per night, but they're not going to be the focal point for me when I'm building out my lineups. Tonight's very different. I think that when you look at the board for today, it's not just that some of the higher salaried guys are in rougher matchups, lower strikeout matchups that I don't really want to go at, but also some of the lower salaried guys have juice comparable to those massive, massive studs. So it's a bit of a weird slate, but in a fun way. We can kind of have some fun with our hitters because of the salary afforded to us by those top pitching options. So let's dive on in, break it down and get you set for Thursday night's slate. Welcome on into the solo shot. That's right here on the FanDual Podcast Network and NumberFire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com. Here to break down Thursday's eight game main slate with locks up for 7.05 PM Eastern for today. I did say eight games, that is correct. Usually when there's a double header, they will omit the second game of that double header. They did not do that today for the Cubs and the Cardinals. I believe they published this slate before that game got postponed. So second game of Cubs Cardinals is in the slate. We'll talk about that in things to watch and break down that later on. Just letting you know that it is a deviation from what they typically do on FanDual with double headers. We have awesome hitting conditions in Philadelphia tonight. It is 92 degrees, humid and the winds are out to center at 10 miles per hour. That is a nice, nice, nice bump up to hitters for the Nationals and the Phillies. There is a chance of rain in Cleveland for the Guardians and the Astros. It looks like it'll be hitting right in the middle of that game. So check on the timeline of that later on. Those are the lone two weather notes for today. Hopefully no weird delays, postpone and stuff like we had last night with the Cardinals and the Cubs. We'll break down the pitching preview stacks and much more in just one second. But first, a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast because we have not just MLB, but also PGA, USC, NASCAR and NFL just around the corner all in the same feed. If you hit subscribe, you'll get those podcasts right as they are posted to maximize your digestion and research time before those slates lock. So find that wherever you get your podcasts. The NFL Week 1 odds are out and now's the time to try Fandall Sportsbook if you haven't already. Get in on the action early this season to help get you started. 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In Tennessee, call the red line at 1-889-9789. In Wyoming, 1-800-522-4700 or in West Virginia, 1-800-GAMBLER.NET. Pitching preview for this Thursday. I could not remember what day it was. It's Thursday, Thursday main slate. Justin Verlander comes in at the top. He is $11,200 on Fandall for today. Alec Minoa is 10-7. Kyle Wright is 10-4. Johnny Cueto comes in at $9,600. Carlos Carrasco's salary is 95. We got Nick Pavetta at 93. Sonny Gray at 9,000. And then Zach Pleasack rounds at the top group. He is $8,400. Now for cash games, I'm okay going at a plus matchup for tonight. Even the pitcher is not perfect. And the pitcher not being perfect aspect of this is probably why this guy comes in as a value. So not only are we digging value plays tonight, we're digging value plays for cash games. And to me, that guy is Jeffrey Springs facing off with the Tigers. And I like him enough to use him for sure. The matchup part here is pretty obvious. The Tigers are a better offense against lefties than they are against righties. So it's not as advantageous for Springs as it would be for a righty, but there's still not great. 96 WRC plus against lefties, not a lot of power, low walk rates. Their strikeout rate is slightly better than league average, but that's the one area that they are doing okay in against lefties. Everything else lines up well for Springs. And Springs also has been pitching pretty decently. He's been using more sliders and fewer foreseeing fastballs in his past nine starts. And in that time, he has a 3.36 skill interactive ERA with a 26% strikeout rate. Both those numbers are almost identical to what Justin Verlander has as the top mark on this slate. But he's got a much better matchup than Verlander has. Springs facing the Tigers here, Verlander facing the Guardian, super low strikeout team, maybe some rain in that game. That does hurt Verlander for sure. The biggest issue with Springs and the key differentiator between him and Verlander is pitch count. I've got Springs projected for 90 tonight. He's actually gone under that number in five of the nine starts in the stretch we're talking about here. He did have 102 before he spent some time on the IL though. He went 92 last time out. So having him at 90 may actually be underselling him a tad. That's enough for me for sure. I've got Springs projected for 5.5 strikeouts. That is basically the same as Verlander. So the non-strikeout portion of this game is very good for Springs. I'll be in on him here for sure. Again, his salary is $74. So I'm guessing it's because it's dragged down due to when he was a reliever. He's had some rough starts in there, some low pitch counts, but I feel good enough here to use Springs and Cash, which doesn't happen very often. So take that for what it is. I just think that he is more intriguing than most value guys typically would be on a DFS slate. For tournaments, I am okay taking a risk. And that's by using a fun pitcher in a rough matchup. That's Carlos Carrasco facing the Braids. And I'm willing to get this one a swing in tournaments. The matchup here stinks. The Braids active roster has a 194 ISO against Reides. That's the second best mark on the slate. So it's a rough spot, but the Braids will strike out. Maybe 25% strikeout rate versus Reides, which is the highest mark on the slate as well. So pitchers facing them have upside as long as they don't implode. That includes Carrasco, who's been throwing a lot better recently. He has been improving his peripherals. He's throwing fewer force emers right now and more sliders across his past 10 starts. In that time, he has a 3.58 skill interactive ERA with a 25% strikeout rate. And this is a key against the Braids. He's keeping the fly ball rate in check. It's 32%. The results, at least recently have been really good for Carrasco. He's allowed no earned runs across his past three starts and two of those were on the road. His overall ERA in the sign is 3.95. So it's not all perfect, but he's got some strikeout juice. He has seven plus strikeouts and five of these 10 games. He had 10 strikeouts and one. So it could blow up in the negative sense because the matchup is tough, but it also could blow up in the positive sense because Carrasco's getting some strikeouts and facing a high strikeout team. I think there is reason for hope here. I'm willing to give Carrasco a swing in tournaments. He actually is my highest projected strikeout pitcher of the night. So as long as you're okay with the risk, I like Carrasco a lot for tournaments for tonight and I will be going there for sure. Depends on my gauge of roster rate for springs if I go with Carrasco or springs in single entry, but would not be shocked if I go Carrasco because the matchup may scare some people away even though he's pretty fun. The board is open for our third slot because springs is the value play here at 74. I could go Verlander, but such a low strikeout matchup. I could go Noah Cindergart against a weakened nationals offense. I could go Alec Minoa against the twins, but I'm gonna have some fun here. Let's talk about Jose Quintana in his Cardinals debut. He's facing the Cubs tonight and they're good offense against lefties with a 114 WRC plus, but they will strikeout. And Quintana is pitching pretty well as he comes over to his new team. Virtus.10 starts on Quintana with fewer sinkers and in that time, he has a 3.78 skill interactive ERA. His strikeout rate is respectable at 22% and he's also letting up just a 33% fly ball rate. So the underlying numbers are good for Quintana. The results have been good, I would say, at times. He's had a couple blow-ups in here, but back-to-back starts with nowhere and runs. The couple of blow-ups did come, one at Coors Field, one of those was on the road against the Braves. So rough outings there are pretty easy to understand. This isn't as difficult of a spot as those ones were at Coors or facing the Braves. So I think that it's not too bad of a spot. He did face the Cubs back on June 23rd, Quintana did. He went six innings with two runs and six strikeouts. That's not that bad at all. If Verlander were in pretty much any other matchup, I'd go him. If Minoa were facing a less tough offense or if Iron Buxton were to sit tonight, then I would go Minoa, but with how things line up right now, I'm fine taking a discount and going with Quintana at 77. So two of the top three pitchers to be tonight are under $8,000 in Springs and Quintana, but I think with the way things set up, it's actually not the worst approach it takes. So we'll see how things go. I think that that is, hopefully the right way to play things. We'll see how things shake out later on. That means we got a lot of salary to spend with stacks if we want to. The problem is not every stack I want to use is super high salary. Just kind of lets us use whichever guys we want to there. And that starts here with the Rays. The Rays are facing Drew Hutchison tonight and Hutchison is a guy we can stack against. Hutchison hasn't had awful results. He has a 4.50 ERA as a starter. He led up just one run across five innings against the Jays before leaving due to injuries, but five innings, you know, that's pretty good. And he's allowed no more than four runs in any of his games. So the results for Hutchison are not bad. The peripherals leave a bit more to be desired. 5.27 skill interactive ERA in seven starts, 12% strikeout rate. Both those numbers rank last in the slate. The bad of all numbers are not good enough to cancel out the low strikeout rate and the rough skill interactive ERA. I'd expect the ERA for Hutchison to get worse as the sample expands. The Rays down some good players. That does hurt for sure, but I still think it's a good enough match up here to justify stacking and feeling okay about the Rays in this spot. So the Rays to me, really good stack, despite the fact I don't really need to save some salary for tonight. Against Hutchison, I want to bump up the lefties. They have a 49% fly ball right versus him this year, whereas righties are at just 32%. So great thing for Brandon Lau and Jiman Choi. I also really like David Peralta here. He has a 225 ISO versus righties. That is second on the team against Isaac Peretz or behind Isaac Peretz. 46% fly ball right for Peralta too. So I think it makes sense to be heavy on him in this spot. You know, another new team. We got Quintana on a new team. We had all the Padres on a new team last night. We get Peralta on a new team here. I think we should have some fun with those guys as well. So the Rays quality stack tonight, including David Peralta. Cole Regans is making his MLB debut for tonight. He's a lefty and he's facing the White Sox. So welcome to the big leagues, kid. And it's not just the White Sox. It's a finally healthy White Sox lineup. Pretty tough spot. So I'm fine stacking against Regans for tonight. Regans started the year down in double A. He had a 31% strikeout rate down there and then got promoted up to triple A. He made eight starts there. Strikeout rate is 27% in triple A across eight starts, which is a pretty good number. His swing strike rate there is 12.2%, which means he might struggle to get whiffs in the majors. The batted ball dated in the minors is pretty similar to his strikeout numbers where it was fine. He had a 38% fly ball rate allowed in triple A, 40% in double A. So basically that means he's not a ground ball pitcher, which we like for stacking. I think he's probably gonna be a guy who doesn't get a ton of strikeouts, doesn't get a ton of ground balls. And when you put a guy like that against a finally healthy White Sox lineup and they're a lefty, tough combination. So I think we should be stacking the situation. I think we can be high on the White Sox for tonight. And again, not a lot of high salary guys here. Luis Robert is the highest salary guy in this team at $3,600, nobody else above 33. So if you use springs or Kintama, even Carrasco, honestly, you can just kind of pick your favorite guys here. So it's a fun feeling to be in on the White Sox against the lefties. Once again, I think that they're probably kind of back to being what they were previously and I'm on board of that. So the White Sox facing a lefty, MLB debut, we can go there for sure from a salary perspective. I will be doing so for tonight. Our third stack might feel kind of gross, but I think it's a good one, especially when you consider the weather. And that's the Phillies. The Phillies offense is underwhelming for sure. I'm not gonna stack them super often, but I will do so tonight. They're facing Paolo Espino and I think it's a good enough spot to go to the Phillies here despite their imperfections. Got an eight star sample on Espino since he got fully stretched out in the rotation. And he's struggling with hard contact, letting up a 48% fly ball rate, which is the highest number on the slate. And it's more concerning when that number is paired with an elevated hard hit rate. That's a good recipe for home runs. And we've seen that with Espino in the rotation. He's led up 11 home runs across his eight starts and he's led up multiple home runs and half those starts, including for the past six. One of those multi-homer games was against his Phillies offense back on July 5th. So, you know, it's not a familiarity spot. They didn't just see him, but they showed in that game, they could do it there. This is also the third time they've seen him in this stretch. So I think the remaining pieces on the Phillies offense can get the job done. And as a result, I will be high on the Phillies here as they face Espino once again for tonight. Espino does have some weird reverse platoon splits where he lets up a 514 slugging percentage to righties versus 403 to lefties. I'm not sure if that will stick because the underlying data is much more even on both sides. So I think that what it does mean is we can not actively bump up lefties, just kind of keep both sides neutral. So pick the best guys, regardless of righty lefty over does best against righties, just use them. I think that's the way to play things here. So I'm not, even though righties have hit Espino hard, I'm not actively seeking out a Gallic Alec Bohm who does not hit for power versus righties. I think Nicosteanos might be improving at home run last night, maybe slowly working his way back. But I think the overall takeaway here is don't actively bump down righties or bump up lefties. Just take the guys with the best numbers versus righties and deploy them liberally in this spot. Let's go now to things to watch for tonight. Typically again, FanDuel does not include double headers on a slate they did for tonight though. And the rough part is I'm not sure who's starting for the Cubs. It could be Caleb Killian. Sounds like he is on typical rest down in AAA. He got called up earlier on this year. He's on the 40 man. So if it is Killian, the red, the Cardinals are totally fine for stacking. I'm on board with them here but don't honestly know who it'll be as of right now because Justin Steele's moved to tomorrow. Marcus Strowman starting the first game on the double header. The Red Sox starting to get healthier, which makes them more fun in general. And they also don't get a bad match up for tonight. You're facing Chris Bubech who does not have the best peripherals. And I think that means we can use some Red Sox guys here. They're not bad for stacks, not bad for one-offs. Overall, I think the Red Sox could work here. And maybe if you've got spare salary, that could be a place you would turn to with the excess for tonight. If you want some one-offs, the other side of that game is also kind of fun. Nick Paved is starting for the Red Sox and it seems like he's in a bit of a funk letting up a lot of fly balls, a lot of hard contact. So Salvador Perez and he's in a good spot. We can always get behind that. He's $3,300. I don't mind the younger guys once again either if you want some value. It's tough to stack them until they like differentiate the positional eligibility of some of these Royals guys because like effectively everybody is catcher slash first base. So you can't really stack them honestly. Like you can use two of them, but you can't use four. So I can't do a full stack until they change up some positional eligibility. But for now, you know, for one-offs, they do work just fine. Let's finish up here with some Dinger calls for today. The boring one will be Kyle Schwerber facing off with a Spino. We know what kind of stuff Schwerber can do. He is a guy who is a threat against pretty much anyone but put him in a good spot here versus a Spino. And I think that Schwerber grades out really, really well from a Dinger perspective. So Kyle Schwerber is the boring homerun call for today. The fun one, I got to think about for a second because I honestly forgot to write down. Usually I write these down beforehand. Did not do that for today. So the fun one, I could go with a White Sox guy but I'm not sure any of them really qualify as being quote unquote fun. You know, they're all pretty good in general. A lot of the guys who might be fun aren't necessarily the biggest power bats versus lefties. So the White Sox are kind of tough there in terms of the fun homerun pick. I could go back to the Phillies for the second one but I don't like doubling up all that much. Not necessarily wanting to do that. I could go back to the Royals against Povetta, potentially considering that. A lot of hard contact, a lot of fly balls. Could do a Royals guy, I think for the fun one. I kind of want to do MJ Melendez. I think I might've done him a couple of nights ago. On the Royals, he's been hitting for power in the majors. He hasn't had one for a while but hit for power in the minors, hit for power in the majors. Mason got lots of a lot of fly balls and a lot of hard contact. Not a bad combination. So we'll just do it. Let's go with Kyle Schwerber and MJ Melendez as our homerun calls for today. That is all that we have here for the solo shot for this Thursday Slay back once again tomorrow to break down Friday Slay but remember we got a lot of good stuff here on the Number of Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed between MLB, USC, NASCAR, PGA, NFL just around the corner all in one spot. So search for the Number of Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast and if you like what you hear, leave us a rating and review as well. If you have any questions for me, I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the FanDuel Podcast Network at FanDuel Podcast. Big thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your DFS lineups. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down Friday Slay. This has been the solo shot right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network.