 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network I am pretty jazzed about week number 10 in the NFL that does translate to player props as well We got Kyler Murray back in the saddle for the Arizona Cardinals We've got some pretty fun games on tap and fun players in them and a lot of evolving situations We're gonna break down top player props week number 10 by talking to JJ Zacharyson getting his read on the land for this week And his favorite prop bets over at Fandall sportsbook. This is covering the spread right here on the fandall podcast network and fandall research My name is Jim Sonis I am a managing editor of digital media for a fandall research joined here as I have every Friday by JJ Zacharyson check him out on Twitter at late round QB find his work at late round comm and the late round fantasy football Podcast JJ week 10 is already here. How you doing today? I'm good after week nine, man. I'm feeling good after week nine That's all I can say five and oh or five. Yeah five and oh five four five is probably the better way to phrase it My home's rushing. I see we had T Higgins receiving. Yeah, you had there was another another yardage Don Kincaid was all thinking K yardage and both Higgins and Kincaid doubled their yardage numbers Yes, and then you had touchdowns by Kate Aughton and Chris Olava within the span of 15 seconds The the fact that the touchdowns happen not only early in their game is always nice, but it can happen twice Yeah, yeah, Kate Aughton had had a game But they happen within 15 seconds of one another like I'm watching red zone I got like the quad box going every week and like one of the boxes is red zone and You know I'm watching red zone It literally went from Kate Aughton scoring a touchdown to Chris Olava scoring touchdown and I was fist pumping in my Office so I think the big question is you went five for five for five last week Why are you not retiring? Like why are you still on this show? Like you got I've been doing like sports betting stuff long enough to know when you have a five in a week walk away I know I would walk away from the table. You're good. You're done, right? I probably shouldn't be on the show right now, but the people need their their regressed bets this week Okay Well, you've been warned regression is coming JJ is a man who understands regression better than others So you have been warned about the regression that is imminent But hopefully we can follow up a fun week with another one here in week ten We're talking about the Kyler Murray return talk about situations a target and of course JJ's favorite props for this week But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts our previous Sunday night Football between the Jets and the Raiders most throwing match for the week is already up here on at the feed via Tom Vecchio broke down favorite plot props for that game on the covering the spread podcast He that is also going to be up on Fandal TV plus later on today You can find this show and others on Fandal TV plus in the fans of YouTube page full NFL week 10 previous Ed Fang we also have our college football week 11 previous ed up in the feed as well all in the covering the spread podcast He's a go subscribe if you like what you hear leave us a five-star rating as well Let's begin things by talking about Kyler Murray JJ back for the Cardinals He's been practicing for quite a bit now we practice for the full three weeks He was allowed to and they announced he'd be starter on Monday So when I'm looking at this situation, I Kind of I'm gonna operate under the assumption Murray is healthy I still think he'll be kind of in check because his contract situation where I don't think we'll see a lot of design runs Because he gets hurt they're on the hook for a lot of money So that's kind of my assumption going in with Murray is healthy, but not design runs What's your interest level and Kyler Murray props this weekend? And how does Murray's return impact guys like Trey McBride and Marquis Brown and potentially James Carter? Yeah, you know, I think to the latter question We all love Josh Dobbs. We've loved what he we loved what he did last week. He's easily top Maybe the top person to root for in the NFL right now But I also think that we got to realize what things were like in Arizona when he was there and Arizona this season Is the second lowest yards per attempt in the NFL Through the air they have not been very strong from a from a passing perspective and so I think naturally you're gonna see an upgrade with that passing game I'm not even saying like what we saw last week with Clayton Tune against one of the best defenses in football is What I'm really comparing this to it's really this team with Josh Dobbs and Dobbs again has not been bad per se Especially given circumstance, but Kyler Murray is an upgrade over a player like Josh Dobbs the other thing too, you know, you mentioned the the Designed runs, which I think is very important here and I agree with you The one thing I'll say though too is that Murray obviously is a scrambler, right? And I think my opinion with this kind of thing and obviously there's a lot of volatility to this and it's not something That I'm gonna aggressively bet or anything like that just just given that volatility But the one thing I will say with a player like Kyler is I do think Scrambling and running and trying to make plays is just inherent to their game, right? Like it's very difficult for a player who's been playing a certain way for 25 years of their life And then all of a sudden say oh, I'm coming off this ACL things gonna be right I think that they're waiting and they've waited as long as they have to make sure that he's at least able to do that So agree with the design runs aspect, but if the line is low enough from a rushing arts perspective I do think he's still gonna have a decent number of scrambles Yeah, the no design runs thing Translates the offense according to because like he doesn't give he doesn't want to get fired And he can get fired if he calls too many design runs Kyler's gonna run if if Kyler sees the lanes Like that is something you can tell the OC you cannot tell the QB So I agree with that wholeheartedly where if the rushing prop is low enough or like the rushing attempts number is low enough I think that could be a spot to go at but keep in mind that it might not be what it was before but maybe the Bookmakers won't assume that it is either. So because they've got the same info as we do So, you know operate under that assumption as well, which are the situations? Are you digging into for week number 10 JD trying to identify spots where things may be in flux We may find some value once props are posted. Yeah, so look Damian Pierce still has not been practicing He has this ankle injury Devon Singletary last week did not get that much production But it was a game where Tampa Bay has been pretty good at stopping the run as they have been the last handful of years Not very good through the air. I'll get to that in a little bit But his backfield shared Singletary's backfield share regardless of that production We need to look at that those peripherals and that backfield share pretty decent He had a 75% snap chair 93% of the teams running back rushes a 56% Route participation, which is pretty strong at the running back position or at least decent at the running back position So don't sleep on Singletary, you know, if Pierce is out again. It's a better matchup this week I will say I might be more inclined to go with a total yards prop for Singletary because he has been the guy Running more routes and this could be a negative game script for Houston and Cincinnati this week But I do think the matchup is at least a little bit better for Singletary this week Alexander Madison in the Vikings backfields another one to monitor cam makers now out for the year with another Achilles injury, which is Absolutely brutal. I mean, that's just it sucks But cam makers being sideline means that Madison is Definitely the 1a. I mean he was already sort of the 1a in that backfield But now he could be a bell cow because the first three weeks this season without cam makers in that backfield He was seeing 85% of the teams running back rushes He had a 12.5% target share per game with cam makers those numbers fell by 18% and running back rush air and 4% in Target share now. I'm a tie Chandler Stan I think the tie Chandler deserves more work in that backfield But we have to be realistic about the way that this coaching staff might use Alexander Madison He should be in store for a decent number of touches this week Go ahead. I Chandler Stan. I'm an anti anti Alexander Madison Stan, right? Like I think he sucks and like that's why they brought in cam makers and But like it doesn't matter like They've shown us like Chandler. There was a game earlier on this year where he had like three snaps and they gave the ball on to and he looked Awesome. Yeah, I don't think he played an offensive snap the next week. They don't care about that. I think yeah Yeah, I think that he's gonna see a spike here unfortunately, which stinks. I like it exactly I said all the time one of his top comps when he came out in my prospect model was Elijah Mitchell He has that sort of burst and he's sort of a smaller dude, but he can he can still you know We've seen it with Elijah Mitchell where yeah, he hasn't been able to stay healthy But that could be just what Elijah Mitchell is about not necessarily tight Chandler But we've seen Mitchell be able to carry, you know, 15 touches a game and be okay And I think that we could see that out of tight Chandler. I just don't think that that's Probably probably going to happen here in week 10 with Alexander Madison back there I wish we would get one Kenny and one would carry per game like yeah, I mean Another explosive guy. I mean like it's it's interesting that they just don't Seem to really favor that or that's Madison's worst trade is explosive exactly That's like that's the thing he lacks most and like you got guys with juice like no, they know better than we do They are at practice. They understand it. I just I want to I want to watch those guys play football I'm not saying I know better than them. I'm just being self and saying I want to watch them play football Yeah, I agree. I agree another situation to monitor this T. Higgins injury He has a hamstring sounds like he's probably not gonna go this week Which means Trent Irwin is probably the one who's gonna benefit most we saw this happen earlier this season with T Higgins missing a game against Arizona and week 5 and in that game Irwin had a 23 percent target share He had 80 percent route participation So no those were by far the highest of this season with Higgins sideline. So Trent Irwin another player to Sort of watch out for in the markets and then the last one, you know Honestly, I still don't have that great of a feel for it because it's been kind of strange But the Seattle backfield is one that I think is definitely sort of fluid right now where over the last two weeks Zach Charbonnet has played 59 percent and 55 percent of Seattle's snaps offensive snaps The problem is that two weeks ago Kenneth Walker throughout the week was on the injury report I think it was a calf injury that he was dealing with and then last week You had this bonkers game script against Baltimore this week Maybe we see a bonkers game script in the other direction and this bounce back against Washington potentially But I just don't know if this is a situation where they're really truly Leaning on Zach Charbonnet now Pete Carroll has come out and said that they want to get Charbonnet more involved and that's good But I don't think that that necessarily means he's gonna play more snaps and Kenneth Walker Week in and week out so definitely something to monitor but not necessarily something to bet Look at the the touch distribution early on that game It was still Kenneth Walker's backfield and I thought there might be another injury thing with Walker because he was out of practice On Wednesday, but he practiced in full Thursday. So and that was with the chest It was not the calf thing that was ailing him before so it's a very different situation now for Walker both from a game script perspective And an injury perspective than what it's been the past couple of weeks So definitely for sure keep that in mind Let's take a look at some yardage props for week number 10 JJ. Where are you seeing value as of right now? Yeah, hopefully unlike last week the lines didn't change that dramatically But it didn't matter last week both T Higgins and Dalton Kincaid I like will levis over 220 and a half passing yards in this game over on Fandle They get Tampa Bay that secondary has been brutal over the last month over the last four games Jim Jared Goff 353 yards passing Desmond Ritter 250 which is good for Desmond Ritter Josh Allen 324 CJ Stroud 470 passing yards against this Tampa Bay secondary Tampa Bay is really good against the run and despite them being a three and five team right now Which would suggest that teams would have a low pass rate against them because they're not or because they're leading in games against Tampa Bay Tampa Bay's actually faced the seventh highest pass rate in football this season Because teams are attacking that secondary they have the fourth worst EPA per drop back as well So I think will levis obviously he can chuck it down the field and he is doing that more aggressively than what we saw with Ryan Tannehill he could get this. I think I think fairly easily I wouldn't be like I'm not predicting this But I wouldn't be shocked if he's like at this number like early in the fourth quarter at this point Just given the way Tampa Bay has been playing in the secondary and then in that exact same game Jim Nick Westbrook Akinae has a line of 18 and a half receiving yards And I think that this is a very easy one to bet the over I just mentioned how bad Tampa Bay secondary has been Traylon Burks had that really scary injury last week that concussion against Pittsburgh It does not sound good with him going this week. Obviously you can monitor that I don't think he's officially been ruled out, but it does not sound good for him He's missed three games this year and in those three games He's been out Westbrook Akinae hit a 73% route participation on average and he hit a 20% target share twice in those games And that was with worst quarterback play, you know with Ryan Tannehill So even without the the Burks injury though Westbrook Akinae has gotten to this number in six of eight games this season It's not like and one of those games was against Cleveland who's very very good defensively and very very good against wide receivers So I think that even if Burks were moderately healthy You could consider this and over but the fact that Burks likely isn't gonna go I feel really in the matchup so good I feel pretty good about the over here and these are correlated bets Nick Westbrook Akinae over 18 and a half receiving yards and will Levis over 220 and a half passing yards I tend to be a bit Skittish about tying things together But these are correlated if you want to same game par them plus 1 a 40 I'll plus 184 over at Vandalsports, but you do have that route as well talking about Levis though 220 and a half is an interesting number because he's just chucking it downfield like it's I don't think it'll be efficient long term but it doesn't have to be efficient to get over 220 and a half in a spot where they're probably gonna throw the ball at a Higher rate and the pass he does complete are probably gonna be like chunk gains, right? So I think like from a stylistic perspective from a play style perspective He's conducive to overs he conducive to game overs I'd be over on this game individually personally because I think both sides are gonna throw it a pretty high rate relative to their baseline for this week given the Titans rush defense as well and But you can also lead the interceptions, but like we don't care about a pick for a for a passing yardage problem So I think that Levis's play style is good for overs both for him and for Westbrook. He knows cuz like He's not the biggest athlete, but like that's that could be one completion You could get there for that loava number for sure for sure Alright, so liking will let us over 220 and a half and minus 114 and Nick Westbrook He know over 18 and a half receiving yards minus 114 as well Let's shift focus here and talk about some touchdown props. What you seen there for week 10 JJ. Yeah I'm gonna start with Alexander Madison. This is a draft Kings bet I think that the numbers a little bit better there at plus 145 But Madison like I said should see a big workload The Saints aren't the best matchup in the world But it feels like this number sort of reflects a player who's who's underperforming the touchdown column which we which he has He's a big regression candidate He scored three times this year when a pro football focus is expected touchdowns model has him closer to seven And so if he sees the workload that he was seeing earlier in the season I think that this is a pretty strong bet Just just given the number here and then the other one that I like is Debo Samuel. He's coming back this week He's at plus 160. I considered going with George Kittle here as well Who is who has pretty decent odds? But Jacksonville runs the second highest rate of zone in the league and anytime you get a zone defense against San Francisco You have to love the the yak players like a like a like a kiddo like a Debo Debo this season has a 3.2 yards per outrun against zone against man and look it's limited sample Of course, he's only 54 routes against man, but against man his yards per outrun is one So it's a very very significant difference in the way that he performs and it's logical too When you think about the way that Debo plays football He need to get him open in space allow him to you know He doesn't need to beat his defender from a man standpoint He just needs to get open in that that area in that space to be able to make a move and make guys miss And and break some tackles, which is which is what he's great at So I like Debo a plus 160 Is the number that I got for an anytime touchdown and then I'm going to just throw this out there I have this written down. I didn't even have notes for it, but I'm just going to go for it Sure jaden reed last week did not play The number of snaps that we saw the week prior the week prior He ran the most routes for green bay part of me thinks that a lot of that was game script related where You know they were leading and they could run the ball a little bit and take a more conservative approach And while I do think they can still potentially take that conservative approach this year Jaden reed has played the majority of his snaps this season from the slot and pittsburgh Against the slot is horrific. I mean their yards per route run allowed to the slot this year is almost double The team that's next on the list in terms of being the worst against The slot and yards per route run. So his number is long. I mean, it's a plus 350 I think I saw whenever I was looking at stuff So if you want to go with like a you know the k. Dotten of the week if you will I'm going to say jaden reed and and hope and cross your fingers that they just use them a little bit more than they did last week I think he also kind of fits the tank del mode though We talked about tank del a bit in passing last week where I like tank del in these markets because they give him rushing attempts And this is when christian was still out. So this could change things but like They were giving jaden reed creative touches near the end zone earlier on this year And like you add that in with the the slot match up here against pittsburgh And you're not going to see a slot player on the field as much when they're up Like 20 to three as they were last week. So I think it does align pretty well for reed given they seem to like His speed once they're enclosed towards the red zone. So I think that makes a lot of sense reed a plus 350 Has a potential outlook for this week. Do you want to go back quickly to the debo and a uke one? I I always have a hard time going with the man versus zone samples because they're small sampling which you alluded to but When the Anecdotal side of things align so well with the data it makes a lot of sense Like if you look at the those two receivers brandon iuk and divo sannual One's like a fist. They're both the yard the yards. That's the catch guys One's like this like yoked up physical specimen Other one is like this crafty guy who can like make guys miss and like the yoked up guy iuk is the one who does amazing against man and the crafty guys you says what he does well good zone so that's a spot where the data aligns with the Body type I guess the situation and so I think I'm more willing to trust it there Just because it meshes so well and I feel like it's stickier when when it makes sense logically Yeah, and look you see a lot of tight ends oftentimes do better against zone as well, which makes sense just naturally I mean like like tight ends aren't necessarily as Nimble to to make guys miss man to man And that's why george kiddle also is you know an interesting vet up I think plus 185 because he is he even crushed zone too I mean this this 49ers offense I think personally has a chance to really really bounce back give it a defensive matchup this week That's that's really what this comes down to so i'm going to get pieces of that offense And those are two of the guys who who have the best odds in my opinion to find the end zone Yeah, Trent Williams not a guarantee to be back. We did get back at practice on thursday Which is a big boost to that offense if he can get out there I know it's not a lock given that his ankles still kind of messed up. It sounds like but I think that does help my confidence in them I laid a three personally so like I would like them to play pretty well But yeah, I think that it does make sense That is JJ Zachary so make sure you check them out on twitter at late round qb find his work at late round Dot com and the late round a fantasy football podcast JJ We're not going to hold you to five and oh this week guaranteed, you know, you're all good Uh, you get a free week from that perspective, but appreciate you Swinging by as always and we'll talk to you again next week. Thanks, Jim Alrighty five JJ on twitter at late round qb and again his work late round dot com touchdown bets again, alexander madison plus 145 Debo Samuel plus 160 and jaden reed at plus 350 with the latter two both being ad fan dual sportsbook That is all that we have here for today We're going to wrap up here at just one second but first score early this nfl season with fan dual america's number one sportsbook Right now new customers get 150 bucks in bonus beds with any winning five dollar moneyline bet That's 150 bucks if your team wins if you've been thinking about joining fan dual There is no better time to get in on the action. 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