 Throughout history, China has been one of the most influential nations in the world. Having the greatest population out of any country at most points in history, the demographics of China have had a profound effect in the development of East Asian civilization, the global system of trade, and the struggle for power. Just as in the past, China's current demographics present brand new problems and opportunities, and this video will seek to explain what trends will inevitably change the country's future. Part 1 History Chinese civilization began on the north Chinese plain, and though an exact date to its beginning is unclear, Chinese dynasties in the northern plain have existed since at least 1500 BC. The flat terrain surrounding the Yellow River provided the perfect location for the early civilization to begin and grow, due to its easily navigable landscape and rivers, but also made farming suitable. Additionally, the central state could have easy and direct control over its subjects due to the lack of geographic barriers. This region would become the center for the Chinese bureaucracy for future dynasties. The earliest dynasties, the Shang and the Zhou, had most of their land in this plain, making little expansion outward. After centuries of division from the 700s BC to 221 BC, collectively known as the spring and autumn period, and the warring states period, Emperor Qin Shi Huang was able to reunite China under his rule. The borders of China were different from previous dynasties, as it not only included the northern plain, but also more sparsely populated, somewhat more mountainous southern rice growing regions. This southern region would slowly grow to become fully incorporated into the Chinese state over the next several centuries. The rice growing regions populations were unable to resist the control of the north Chinese state, as the more disease-ridden conditions that people would inevitably have to live under if they worked their whole lives on rice paddies would weaken their position against stronger armies from overdeveloped states. Though in the first millennium AD, there was some migration from the north to the south, the growth of nomadic armies in the north, such as the Huns, Rurans, Jurchens, and finally the Mongols, brought a new and greater wave of migration to the south, ultimately making the south's population density catch up with the north. The coastal south became a great region for international trade, and large cities began to appear here as a result. The Sichuan Valley, located deep in the continent, began to become a major center for population also, due to its proximity to the Yangtze River and flat terrain. The south was not the only region that was subdued and incorporated into the greater Chinese state throughout history. When China was in periods of great strength, such as under the Han and Tang dynasties, they were also able to bring regions to their west in the Taran Basin, in modern-day Xinjiang, and to their northeast in modern-day Manchuria under their control. This was to establish a holdover regions where potential invaders of central China came from, so that the threat of such invasions was greatly reduced. These have also been the regions where the most recent Han Chinese settlements have occurred. As China's population began to expand greatly during and after the 1700s, new regions have been added to the main Chinese ethnic lands. Parts of deep southern China, such as Yunnan, Guizhou, and Guangxi, which have multitudes of native tribes, have seen Chinese settlement in recent centuries, and now are Chinese majority provinces. The traditionally Jurchen slash Manchu populated regions to the northeast of China began to be settled by the Han in the 19th and 20th centuries, and now they are by far the largest ethnic group there. Large-scale Han immigration to Xinjiang has also occurred in the past few centuries. Part two, current ethnicities and population. Today, China may seem like a relatively homogenous country, with 91% of the population being Han Chinese. But there are some huge things that we are missing from this view, who inhabits what lands within China and what the total population is. China has over 1.4 billion people, so that means that even though minority groups only make up 9% of the population, there are still more than 125 million members of minority groups in the country. The minority groups also inhabit disproportionately large areas of the country in respect to their numbers, due to the lands they inhabit being usually sparsely populated. The Han currently inhabit the more temperate regions of China, ranging from the highly continental regions of the northeast, the western deserts in Gansu and Xinjiang, all along the coast and everything in between. These regions are generally far more densely populated in the rest of the country, owing to their geography and climate. Manchus, who number about 10 million, mainly live in their homeland and in the northeast, but also can be found all over the country in small pockets, due to migrations during the Manchu-led Qing Dynasty. Muslim Chinese also call the Hui, number around 10 million also, and live mainly in Ningxia province. Mongols number around 6 million and inhabit the more sparsely populated parts of Inner Mongolia, autonomous province. The Uighurs, also numbering around 10 million, live mainly in regions surrounding the Taran Basin in Xinjiang, but also live in Jungaria. Tibetans numbering 6 million are the great majority in their autonomous province, due to having a much shorter history under Chinese rule, and they also inhabit regions historically considered part of Tibet outside of the province. Several Sino-Tibetan, Tai-Ka-Dai, Mongkmer, and Hmongmen ethnic groups and tribes live in the tropical interior southwest, with the largest group being the Zhuang of the Tai-Ka-Dai language family, numbering around 17 million. Part three, birth rates. One of the most important parts of a society's future is strength, is actually its age structure. I've talked a lot about this on my channel, so I recommend you see my videos in the Baltic countries on the Asian NATO, or any video I've done on Russia. But in summary, if a country does not produce enough children, that smaller number of children will inevitably have to support a much older population. If a country already has established an effective social security system, or another elderly support program, these are usually exclusive to high income countries, they can mitigate the effects of economic downturn caused by the working population, as a percentage of the total population being far lower than before. However, in countries like China, which are not high income, this will be a major issue that could have devastating effects on the current status quo. I will get to a date in the minute, but it's also important to see the other negative effects of low birth rates. Fewer citizens will be young enough to defend the country militarily, and what could result is the average age of the military being increased, which brings a plethora of problems of its own, including overall health of the soldiers, and the expectation that older members will have higher ranks, creating an imbalance. The total fertility rate in China has been dropping somewhat steadily since 1965, and with official data has been somewhat stable at around 1.5 births per woman since 2000. However, this number is probably far lower, because they're getting quite desperate with their policies. In 2015, China dropped its one child policy in favor of a two child one, as it began to realize that damage to having such low birth rates will inevitably do to the country. Things seem to be getting really desperate as the country moved to a three child policy in 2021, and the party has made a market shift in its attitude towards fertility, promoting it greatly rather than trying to reduce it. If anyone wants to take a look at why having the government control your personal life always ends in disaster, look no further. Anyways, China will have to reconcile with the fact that by 2050, their population will not only be declining, but also getting far older, and the workforce as a percentage of the population will also decline, therefore decreasing economic output and potential support for the elderly population. With the current 996 generation possibly receiving none of the benefits of their hard work due to this government-induced demographic crisis, we can expect some ugly things to happen. The Chinese city dwellers will obey the tyrannical government as long as their standard of living is increased greatly. Take that away from them, and I say good luck to those in charge as things could get nasty quick. There are other demographic issues that will inevitably change China drastically in the next century, but I will leave those for my follow-up video on Sunday, so I hope you stay tuned for that as I discuss ethnic migrations of Han Chinese within and beyond China and the gender imbalance in the country. Thank you all for watching. Be sure to like, subscribe, and share this content with everyone you know. Let's try to get to 5,000 subscribers by the end of this year. Check out my Patreon and Discord server and my Instagram, which I will be updating very soon. See you guys next time.