 As a breakfast in Plough, CV Africa, we had straight to looking at party politics and whether or not the People's Democratic Party will clinch to power in 2023. Now, former presidential aide Reynor Marquery has revealed why the People's Democratic Party might use this chance of regaining power in the 2023 general elections. According to the former aide to ex-president Goodlock Jonathan, he said that the Man Opposition Party will lose if the all-progressive Congress zones its presidential ticket to the South West and the PDP zones it to a region with lower voting strength. Marquery in a post on his Twitter account took out time to analyze how the PDP can lose the electoral process and what it has to do to regain power in 2023. You also have the former presidential aide for the state of the politics as a game of number and not of sentiment. We do have a public affairs analyst who joins the conversation this morning, Nick Agoulet. Let's go to have you join us. All right, so Nick Agoulet, a quick one. It's good to have you join us this morning. So we seem to have a bit of network issue or connection issue as soon as we're able to connect to a team who have him back online. So do we have Nick Agoulet back? Yes, good morning. Can you hear me? Let's get to have you join us. Yes, can you hear me? Yes, we can hear you. Yes, good morning. Thank you for having me. All right, so let's quickly look at the analysis of former President Charles Ait has been very critical of President Muhammad Buhari's administration. He talks about the fact that the 2019 elections, if you look at the number of votes and voting strength, you have that the North West had 8.2 million votes. You know, you have the North Central having 4.4 million. You have the North East having 4.3 million. And you also have the South West 3.8 million, South South 3.2 million. And the South East 2.09 million. Now, he says that if the APC gives a ticket to the South West, the PDP will lose if it gives it to any zone with a lower voting strength politics as a game of numbers. What do you really think about this 2023? Do you think this would be about all of these statistics? OK, so if I interpret the message put out there by the former presidential aid, he's basically saying if the APC presents a presidential candidate from the South West and the PDP presents a presidential candidate from the South South or South East, that the PDP will lose, because it's only the South South and the South East that had lower votes than the South West in the 2019 presidential election. So if that is what the former presidential spokesman implies, I cannot even understand the foundation for him to make such a postulation. For several reasons. Number one, the PDP have not even presented a presidential candidate yet. And until they present a presidential candidate, you are not going to be able to make an analysis and say definitely that they are going to lose the election. And the reason I say that is that I am a keen follower of the Nigerian political landscape. And I am seeing and gladly so, I'm happy to see that the discussions either on social media or off social media by Nigerians in the run up to the 2023 general elections is that people are beginning to appraise the candidates on their merits. This idea that I am PDP, I am APC, so even if it is a log of wood, the PDP or APC brings forward as presidential candidate. I'm going to vote my party is taking a backstage. People are looking at candidates so until we arrive at June the 3rd, which is the last date that INEC has set for the parties to submit the names of their candidates. We can never tell how the 2023 elections will play out because it depends on the candidates that are going to be put forward. Look, if the APC puts forward a candidate that Nigerians don't like, that comes from the Southwest and the PDP puts forward a candidate that Nigerians like, who is from the South East or from the South South, we carry today. That is the way things are shaping out. That is what the outlook is. This analysis by the former presidential aide has no basis whatsoever, especially at this point when we don't know who the candidates are. Alright, Nick Agoli, let me just infer from your analysis right now. You said the outcome would actually depend on the candidates that the PDP is actually putting out for the election, who eventually becomes the flag bearer of the party. Looking at what we have so far and those who have the clad interest, we have the former Vice President, Atiku Obuboka, we have the former Senate President, Bukola Saaki, and the other top shots who have actually the clad interest to contest or to run for the presidency in 2023. There is no talk so far, we've not really had so much from the Southwest as it were. But judging by the fact that these won't have actually come out to the clad interest, what does it really tell on the party's chances? Thank you very much for that question. Initially, there was talk that the PDP was going to zone their presidential ticket. But we are going to note that on Wednesday, when the party holds their National Executive Council meeting, that is the meeting that is going to review the Governor-Otom's committee report for zoning. But from the analysis that you have just presented now, everything points to the fact that they are going to open the ticket, open the floor for everyone from wherever zone to vote for the presidency. And the reason is just like you have said, there are top guns, really top guns like Artiku and the Sarakis and the Tambuas, who are from the North and have got nomination forms which are in their position. So when you have such big heavy weights from the North with forms, you will discover that it will be very difficult for the PDP to not say, oh, all you guys were out of the game were zoning the presidential ticket to the side. So we expect that the PDP, the outcome of the PDP's next meeting on Wednesday, will be to open the floor. And once they open the field, of course, the candidates that are emerging from the South, the likes of Governor-Otom, the likes of Peter will be in political juggernauts. They are not as heavy as the articles of this world. So if you really think about it, it's most likely that the PDP may end up with a Northern presidential candidate. Now, if the PDP ends up with a Northern presidential candidate, and the APC zones the ticket to the Southwest, it depends again on who the APC is going to zone the ticket to. Is it going to be Gola Ahame-Tinubu, or is it going to be Vice-President Professor Yemi Oshiba? That is going to play in. But let me come back to the analysis that was made by the former presidential aide. He doesn't take all the parameters into consideration. For instance, in the 2019 presidential election, the voter turnout was 35.6%. Nigeria's, because of the issues that we have faced in the past seven years, are becoming more and more politically aware. We also have been carrying out a lot of voter education supported by the media, including plus TV and others, that is actually sensitizing Nigeria to come out. So there is going to be a likely increase in the voter turnout in 2023. The presidential spokesman has also not taken into consideration new voters, new voters that must have registered from 2019 to date. The presidential spokesman has also not taken into consideration the fact that the voter apathy that made people stay away from the polls is going to decrease because we have a brand new electoral law that has got things like electronic transmission of results, which is bringing a lot of confidence into the electoral process. And that is likely going to get those who are not voting before to come forward and vote. And also the quality of candidates. A lot of people didn't come out to vote because the fact the candidates that were there was a choice between the devil and the deep blue sea. But if quality candidates come forward in 2023, this will also bring out more people to vote. And also the presidential, former presidential aid assumes that, let's say the North West, they vote the North West cast for President Buhari, for instance, and they are going to translate the same votes and cast them for a South West candidate who will then defeat the PDP. But that is a political naivety because things will play out that the Northern votes will go to the South West. All the South West have, and once the APC have a South West presidential candidate, you can have the APC have a South West presidential candidate. And once the PDP has a Northern candidate, a lot of the Northern votes, we go to the PDP because there are still a lot of voters in the North who would rather vote someone from the North than vote someone from the South West. So these are all the dynamics that must be taken into consideration. Therefore, you cannot just make a statement now and say once APC goes South West, PDP is going to lose it. Yeah, PDP will lose it according to him if it gives it to another region that has low voting strength. But some people will say that that has not been the case because if you look at 2011, you found that Jonathan at the time might correct. I have to look at that again. If you look at a particular election, Buhari did not win that certain time. That's by the fact that he came from a region that had according to the statistics and the belief that's out there, he came from a region that had a lot of voting strength. So I want to understand all of this now. Do you think that the voting pattern and when it comes to the period of election, it is usually about the individual competence who's involved rather than the zone that they come from? And do you think that this would also take permanence in 2023 elections? Yes, thank you so very much. The voting pattern up to 2019 was based on majorly where the individual comes from. So if you look at President Mohammad Buhari now, he started to contest in 2003, 2003, 2007, 2011 before he finally got elected in 2015 at his fourth attempt. In all the previous three failed attempts, he had a chunk of the Northern votes. A chunk of the Northern votes he had there. So you can clearly see that the voting pattern up to 2019 was showing where the candidate comes from. Mohammad Buhari won the election in 2019 because the APC was formed as an amalgam official party and the ACN which was Southwest based. Because the South West were always voting to ACN. So it was the South West and the CNC, which was Buhari's party, came together. You now notice that the South West and the North combined and gave their votes to Mohammad Buhari. That is how he won. So up to 2019, voting was being regionalized like that. But the point is that in 2023, from what I can see, both on social media and off the social media, Nigeria has become more politically educated. And you can see the analysis of candidates is now being based on the individual candidates, their own CVs, what they have done in the past and all of that. And it's going to be very important for us to continue on that trajectory going into 2023 so that Nigeria can get a president who can lift this country up. This country has everything going for us. The only thing we need is we need a leader who understands the economy, a leader who will take care of security, a leader who understands that electricity, we tell electricity there's no economy, a leader who knows that things like monetary policy, because the interests of the banks are charging, we kill industries if it is too high, or we boost production if it is too low. Just a leader that understands these basics. And we see how Nigeria will just take off like a rocket. But let's even begin to play by the predictions that Renner Markery has actually put out. So what happens if you have, because he's talked about region with a lower voting power or voting pattern, however you want to put it, but some people are saying that it is not necessarily the fact that they don't have voting strength, but you have a lot of people not turning out to vote. So you have the issue of political apartheid, which is on top of the front burner in some of this region. So what really happens if you have the PDP zoning to, let's say, the Southeast or the South-South in any of this region? Okay, so if we look at the hypothetical case, and let us assume that the APC have zoned their presidential ticket to the Southwest, as Renner Markery has said, and let us assume it is Vice President Yemo Shibaju that has got it. And then let us assume that the PDP have zoned theirs to the Southeast and it is Peter Ubi that has got it. That is going to be a very close election. It is going to be a very close election because the Northern voters are going to make a choice between Yemo Shibaju and Peter Ubi. And there is nothing in the books, nothing in the dictionary that says the Northern voters will just drift to, the Northern voters will just drift to Yemo Shibaju in the Southwest and therefore the Southeast will lose out since they have, they have less voters than the Southwest in the 2019 elections. That is not going to be the mathematics. The mathematics is going to be for the electorate to look at the candidates, the individual candidates and say who is going to deliver the best resource for us. Let's say for instance the APC sends their ticket to the Southwest as Renner has said and it is Bola Ahamed Tinubu that has taken it. And then the PDP have sent their ticket to the South, South and let us say it is Wike that has taken it. Again the note is going to be split between Tinubu and Wike. You can never say that the 8.4 million, 8.2 million voters of the Northwest in the 2019 elections are going to all go to Tinubu in the Southwest leaving Wike in the South, South empty-handed. I don't understand the basis for that analysis, that's not going to be the case. So it is going to be about how much work that the two parties have done to convince the Northern voters. Because expectably the Southwest will tend to APC because that is where their candidate comes from. The South, South or the South is as the case might be we tend to their candidate but the entire Northern voters that is North Central, North East and Northwest will be there for the taking by the parties. So it will then depend on the hard work that the parties are putting to ensure that they have got the votes. But one thing that is emerging which I must give since the parties are here to do their primaries. One thing that is emerging is that I want to tell the parties that 2023 is going to be a different election. In 2023 Nigerian voters are going to look at the quality of the candidates. So if parties think that they can just come and put a log of wood and Nigerians are just going to vote the party's logo without looking at the candidate to be making a big mistake. So all political parties must have good candidates coming into 2023 or they stand no chance regardless of the region, they come from. Well thank you so much for your analysis and of course all the numbers and all the statistics that you have actually permuted this morning. We do appreciate your time. Thank you very much but I just wanted to also correct Reno that he didn't get the numbers of the presidential tally correct. His tally is 25.99 million but actually INEC announced 29.4 million. So he left to have about 3 million voters and he didn't tally in his own. All right noted. Thank you. Once again, Nick, I've got a political affairs analyst. We do appreciate your time. Thank you very much and have a nice day. Yes. Well that's the size of the show for today. We must say a very big thank you to all of you who have stopped back and to watch the first edition for this week. We return again tomorrow with another exciting edition. My name is Justin Akadone. I am Mr Boko. If you missed out on any part of the conversation, that's all right to call us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram. We do subscribe to your YouTube channel as a plus to the Africa and plus to the Africa lifestyle. Many thanks for watching. Have a great day.