 Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys. Good evening, everybody. Welcome to another edition of theaccesatrader.com. Nightly wrap up show. Hope everybody is having a great day. Hope everybody is happy and healthy and just understand. I don't care if you are religious. If you're not religious, the point is there's nothing you can do. If you put God in your heart, stay focused and don't settle. Usually good things will happen. So let's talk about the market. So if you look at the scoreboard today, nothing is going to really jump out of you, right? The diamonds, and again, we'll use the diamonds as a proxy instead of the Dow Jones. But the Dow has been on a magical, magical run, right? And what's the common denominator here, right? They reclaimed the 50-day moving average and they had a run up. So you had a nice little, a couple of days rest in the Dow, not a big deal. The S&P 500 and we'll use the SPYs as a proxy. Again, it's starting to build, right? It's starting to build and starting to get really, really comfortable above the 50-day moving average day three. Granted, we got rejected here at the top of the range here, but it's not really that big of a deal. Because if you look from the 50-day crossing with the five, crossing with this, whatever the hell this is, right? It's a very tight range. It's really not that big of a deal. The more important part about this is the longer the SPYs stay above the 50-day moving average, the higher probability they will go higher. Again, we'll get to some key levels a little bit later on the flip side of that. The biggest problem child that we've been talking about this for the last two, three, even four or five days has been the Nasdaq one composite, right? And we're going to use the Qs as a barometer. We saw in the last few weeks with earnings kind of in the middle of its way right now, we saw Meta, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, right? These are four of the horsemen, right? There's a Jason horseman. But these are four of the horsemen stocks and they all blew up on earnings. I think we could all acknowledge that. And the most important part was, if you remember last Friday, Microsoft in the initial move was to the downside and then they kind of reverse course. And on Friday, we had this really, really big move and you had these dead cat bounces happening on those stocks that blew up. But the problem was these are four out of probably four out of the six, seven more most important companies that compile not only the Nasdaq 100, but there's a lot of crossover, the S&P and to the doubt. But the most important part is not what the Nasdaq did is what it didn't do. And that's the most important part kind of how we start tonight's video and kind of how to kind of echo our thoughts or potential, what could happen down the line. If you guys notice out of all three major benchmarks, out of all four, excuse me, I don't want to discredit the IWM. IWM as well is above the 50-day moving average. So out of the four major benchmarks that we have, three of them are way above the 50-day moving average. The Nasdaq composite or when you use the Qs as a tracker, it is below. And not only is it below, it can't even get above the recent highs it put in a week ago. So that's a very, very big problem. And the question that we were kind of asking for the last two, three sessions was, well, are the sellers finally going to go numb to them as well, right? Are they going to finally say, hey, you know what? Everything is good. The market is rallying. We're going to the fourth quarter. We've got Thanksgiving on deck, Christmas, January, January effect, New Jersey, all that good stuff, all that happy stuff that people look forward to the holidays. Is everything going to start rallying? And that was the question, right? Was Apple going to be enough to bring everything up and make everything tone deaf that everything rallies? Or are these stocks going to turn around and say, hey, listen, we just reported really crappy quarters. We're not going to give the markets, not going to give us some all again, and we're going to start going lower. And that's exactly what happened today. Really, really aggressive session. Initially today, and we'll get to the individual pivots in a second. Initially today, again, we had all upside bias, right? I mean, I was aware. I mean, everybody was aware that it was just a matter of time that stocks do retest their earnings lows. That's exactly what happened today with a lot of names. But the most important part was, you know, we were watching. I was watching the video to the upside. I was watching Tesla to the upside. Tesla, you know, turned out to be, you know, very, everything was done in a very, very small scalp. And my point is our initial game plan was, hey, you know what? Maybe these indexes will pull up the NASDAQ 100. Let's see what happens. And, you know, the greatest thing about being an intraday trader versus an investor, investor, you're tied in, right? If you are long Microsoft, you're long Microsoft. You're not making your judgments on a day to day. If you are, you know, if you are long Tesla, you're not making your judgments on a day to day. If you're an active trader, right, and you trade both sides of the market, you don't understand the significance, the ramifications of what happens. If the stock takes out the previous day's high, right, something will go higher. If the stock starts confirming below previous day's low, what happens? And kind of where we are underneath supply, stocks is a very good chance stocks will get hit, especially if there is a catalyst already in front of us that we knew was poor. They knew that the stock performed poorly on that catalyst. And it's only just a matter of time that stocks will retest those earnings lows. And that's exactly what happened today. So that's, again, we'll get to the pivots in a second. So going into tomorrow, right? There has to be some series of data points that we have to acknowledge. Let's start off with the Dow, right? So the Dow has been on a phenomenal, phenomenal run. And it goes down what? 70, 80 points say nothing, right? Absolutely nothing. But now we want to pay attention to the five-day moving average. This is a pretty big, important level, not because it's the end-all, be-all, because, again, five-day moving average is the shortest-term sentiment who has control, right? Who has control? Bull's a bear. It doesn't mean this will be a long-lasting performance on one side of the channel or another. It just shows you, as you can see here, every single time it touches the five-day moving average, a balance today that did exactly the same thing. So for the diamonds, right, we really want to watch this 324 level, okay? Any breach below 324, you know, there's four points. There's four points in the diamonds. Again, you know, 400 points or so in the Dow. Again, it doesn't seem like a big deal. And it's probably not considering how big the move was from the 50-day moving average. But at least you want to be prepared, right? You know, if you start seeing 324 lose on the diamonds, you don't want to be anywhere near stocks, because you know there's going to be a potential 3-4 point pull into the 150-day moving average. Same thing that happened today with spies, right? They tried to pull the market, and there was a really big battle, right? A really, really big battle for control of the five-day moving average. And I even tweeted out a big, big battle around the 3.84 level, which the bulls did a good job for now, right? They did a very, very good job for now reclaiming the 3.84 on a close. So we have to watch today's load as 3.83 level. If the bears start coming back for the 3.83 level, then they're going to get a retest of the 50-day moving average that they just reclaimed last Friday, where it becomes very, very sticky, okay, for the bull case. If the bulls want to continue this pretty good move that we've seen the last two weeks, the spies are going to need to reclaim this 3.90 level, right? That's where they got rejected today at the top of the channel here, and you can see this purple line. That is a supply, right? It's a 100-day moving average, so it's going to be very, very important. That's the 100-day EMA, so it's going to be very, very important. Where it gets very, very sticky for the bulls, and then we can have a scenario saying, oh no, here we go again, is if the spies lose 3.82 on the close, that's where they reclaimed it. So if they lose 3.82 on a close, again, it won't be a one-day swan dive. But again, we already know, right? Below the 50-day moving average is bad. Above the 50-day moving average is good, and that's the most important thing. Here is where the wildcard is, and this is where you can see the obvious disconnect between the strong indexes and the out-of-favor technology names. This is where we are. We're still below the 50-day moving average, and again, all this, and there's been some pretty good moves, but this is all taking place below the 50-day moving average. The catalyst and the market leaders that we've been talking about for three, four days are obviously not helping, and I'll show you why in a second, and the most important part is this directional balance right here. You see how many times the cues have held this 2.72 level? Right, guys? You see this? It held it on October the 24th, it held it on October the 27th, and it held it on October the 28th. Three days in a row, or three sequences in a row, it held 2.72. If the bulls lose 2.72 on the close, then yes, we're going right back down to the bottom channel, because again, if you believe in the theory of stocks straight from supply to supply, demand to demand, well, here's 2.72 is demand, and there's nothing below 2.72 until we get all the way down to 2.59. So it's definitely, definitely very, very important that the bulls kind of do what they got to do to get it back above this 3.84-60 level to kind of maintain and kind of confirm the upside bias of everything and catch up all the other indexes, but also we have to be very, very prepared, and that's kind of where we were today, pretty much the whole day on the downside action of catalyst stocks, and that 2.72 level will be a massive line in the sand going forward. So let's talk about today, right? So initially, again, you know, initially we talked about, initially we talked about the upside, right? We wanted to give the bulls the benefit of the Dow, and again, I'm not talking about the Dow, the S&P, we're talking about the Nasdaq 100, and initially I started putting in upside pivots, right? 138.50, 139. NVIDIA needs to build. It started, you know, it started moving up a little bit, right? It started moving up a little bit, you know, it rallied to like 39.25, and then the problem was up here, I hate to skip little steps here, but right around here, Q's for ETF lovers, 281.70 needs to build. They got stuffed, right? The Q's got stuffed right at the top of the channel, and what do you think is going to happen if Q's gets stuck in the top of the channel? Well, everything in the Nasdaq 100 will get affected, and this is what we knew right away. Uh-oh, let's start looking for downside channels. So NVIDIA, you know, goes up to like 39.25, it gets rejected, sells off very, very aggressively. Tesla, which I had a lot of hopes for today. You know, I got along with this 235 level, it went to like 37 and change, everything looked good, and then Fed came out with some news, the Nasdaq got rejected off this 281.70s level, and everything got pulled. Man, Tesla's still held up relatively well to everything else, and there's still some weird, you know, end of week 240, 245 call buyers coming in. Okay, you know, that's fine, but again, just like everything else, nothing will get spared if the Q's get rejected off of a big level, and they all got rejected, literally at 281.70s, exactly the same place. Rivian stopped once again at $36, it's kind of funny how it literally stops literally at the same place all the time. Eventually, above 36, it will go. Roblox never got to the 47 level, DXCM again got rejected off the 122 level, and I started saying to myself, well, you know, now things are starting to, you know, starting to roll over, we have to start looking at the other side of the equation. So the upside, we talked about Netflix 298 upside 289, as you can imagine, at the open like everything else, it started spiking, it went up to like a little less than 300, or maybe a little more than 300, and then, you know, we had the two-sided pit, remember last night in the video, we started talking about, there was a rounding, I don't want to use the word rounding top, but if you look at Netflix's chart, and you watched last night's video, you can see how orderly, right? It lost a five-day moving average, and today it traded down to the 10, so if you see what happened here, we have 298 to the upside, 289 to the downside, and Netflix took out the 289, it closed right on the 10-day moving average, roughly around this 286 level. If it starts losing 286, and there's more, and you know, if the queue starts to pull, I mean, look how much room you have down, granted, it had a phenomenal run, we traded it to the upside, we traded it to the downside, but if it loses this 10-day moving average, and we refer to this as the birth of the trade to the upside, well, sure, it's not going to be the birth of the trade to the downside, so it starts losing this 286, I mean, look how much room you have down to operate, so good job for all you guys who traded Netflix, again, queues we just talked about, they got stuffed, Apple, again, 155.70 rejected, twice cream market never built, so that was the question. Then we got to where, this is where things started getting really, really aggressive, and that's the most important part, identifying technically where things get rejected, identifying levels to the downside where things could get aggressive, and the little we know, it's like Moses parting the Red Sea, a lot of good things happen very, very quickly, so let's talk about this, Amazon, right? There's a theme here, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, right? Common denominator, they all blow up on earnings, so Amazon, $100.74, if it builds below, can flush. Here was Amazon, we actually started at 102, that was the opening range low below the 60 minute view, but once it confirmed the $100.74 area, it tested, right? It tested the earnings lows, which was 97.66, went all the way down to 96. They're still coming, guys. This is a phenomenal move this morning. They're still coming. They came from the 95, the 93 weeklies. We saw some 90s as well, so there's any more weakness, especially in NASDAQ starts losing the bottom range. Amazon has a lot of room to go down, so really great move on Amazon. Here's Microsoft, 231 held twice. If it builds below, can flush. Here's Microsoft, again, stocks that blew up on earnings and the first ones didn't get a hit, so it took out the 231 level, traded all the way down to 27. Look, if this thing starts taking down this bottom channel here, these are the recent lows, right? These are the recent lows, that's the earnings lows. If this Microsoft starts taking out earnings lows, this is a room all the way down to 220. Again, contingent upon, you know, the Q's crash, well, I don't think these were crash, but if the Q's confirmed that bottom channel, you have to assume the weakest stocks will continue to go lower. Google, again, 93, 98 held twice. If it builds below, can flush. Here is Google, right? It took out the 93, 98. It took out the earnings lows, right? You see the common denominator, traded all the way down to 90. I mean, this thing has a lot more room to the downside as well. Netflix, we just talked about 89 went down to 86, and I believe that is it. So, going into tomorrow, I just trade primarily Nasdaq names, right? The same, probably 10 stocks, 90% of the time. So, for me, I really don't care what the Dow is doing or what the S&P is doing. It's all about the Nasdaq. So, we already know what happens if we lose the bottom channel, and now we have to look for the players that could complement that move. So, let me give you guys some plays. Obviously, we're still looking for further downside with Amazon, with Google, with Microsoft, right? Look at a chart like setting up like Wolf. Talk about an earnings low play. I'm going to give you just one couple of names here. Look at Wolf. You see the same thing, right? Look at Amazon, right? Check this out, right? Amazon, right? Amazon, Microsoft, right? Google, what do they all have in common, right? They all took down their earnings lows. Look at Wolf, right? Look how Wolf is setting up for tomorrow. Looks really, really good. Keep an eye on that. And it's actually if the market does rally, right? The market does rally, and, you know, take a look at Gilead. Look at Gilead. Nice three-day channel here. If it starts taking out the top of the channel, maybe this thing can wake up as well. So, that's it, guys. We are set. We are ready. We're always ready for both sides of the market. Again, if you're not prepared to come in with a thousand points, excuse me, a thousand point attention span, don't turn on your computer, because, again, there are no mulligans. Nobody cares about how good of a person you are or how much you want it. The market is relentless, and it's played by relentless contras on the other side of the trade. Guys, stay blessed. God bless, and I'll see you all tomorrow.