 Good day, fellow investors. Investing is, of course, about what stocks to buy, buying the best stocks that will deliver good returns. However, at the same level of importance is the investing mindset. Because buying stocks go up and down that short term, your investing mindset is what will deliver investment returns over the long term. And if you can have a good investment mindset over the very long term, you will reach great investment returns. Charlie Munger says that the key to investing is not to do stupid things. And that has been the key factor for him and Warren Buffett in reaching amazing returns. So, what is the investing mindset? How to develop that investing mindset? I will be making more and more videos about, of course, stock analysis, which is the focus of this channel, but also about how to develop an investing mindset so that you know how to approach and how to analyze those stock analysis and put that into risk reward portfolio perspective. So, today, on the investing mindset topic, on the investing mindset lecture series that we are starting here, we're going to discuss the cycle of market emotions, how emotions affect investing. And the topics we are going to cover are, of course, the stock market, the current bull market, where it is in the emotion cycle, how does that affect stocks. We're going to cover cryptocurrencies, which are a great example of emotional investing. And, of course, touch on the current marijuana stock sector environment to really put that into a perspective because we have denial, let's say fear, and we have also euphoria and also in stocks we are still there in the thrill euphoria level. So, let's start. On the stock market, this is the NASDAQ from 1994 to 2005. As you can see, it was below 1,000 points in 1994, then it shoot up to 5,000 in euphoria. The euphoria was really lasting in the last part of 1999 only to see everything crash and really hit a low of, again, almost 1,000 in 2002. So, this is a normal market cycle and whenever you see those huge spike ups, you can expect the return to normality somewhere in the future. Of course, in the long term stocks go up, but you have to accept this volatility, which is huge. If we look at the Bitcoin interest over time, over the last year, we can see a huge spike up from September to December and then slowly, slowly declining, declining, declining and consequently also the Bitcoin price has declined. Now, as the internet evolved, everybody can now invest in whatever across the globe. This is the interest for Bitcoins in the last year and you can see the top interest is from South Africa, of course Netherlands, Slovenia. People might think that I'm the one researching Bitcoin all day long, but it means that globally money can invest in everything and push a lot of sentiment into investments. If we look at the global GDP per capita, we see that it was just $6,800 in 1999. Now, it's almost tripled to $17,300, which means the $10,000 per capita is the barrier between having just enough to eat and investing and doing more things with your money. As more and more people have more money, they, thanks to the internet, are investing in more and more things. The first key here is that investing is becoming global and it's spreading everywhere, which means that more and more investors, that's something that always happens, but it's spreading across the board, across the world and more and more sentiment plays a bigger and bigger role. So you see the Bitcoin, you have seen the 1999 NASDAQ boom and bust, so that's again happened with cryptocurrencies a few times already, but thanks to the global spreading of investments, thanks to globalization, everything becomes easier and sentiment plays a bigger and bigger role, no matter on what scale you look at, just the cryptocurrencies, just the marijuana stocks or the global index investing. If we look here at the Bitcoin search term over the last 10 years, look at how it evolved and it really exploded just in 2017. What has changed then? Just sentiment and what has fallen sentiment after December 2017? Similar situation is happening with pot stocks, which really bring out the worst in investors, everybody hopes to get rich fast and when you look at this, all the ingredients for the next bubble are already here. Euphoria is there, everybody is thrilled about pot stocks, some stocks I think grow 200% in a day as we have seen this week, so crazy environment, but let's put that into a more scientific long-term perspective. This is the cycle of market emotions, so we start with optimism, then we go into excitement, thrill, euphoria, we have seen euphoria, 2007 with home prices, everybody was crazy about home prices, 2000 technological boom, internet, 1987 it was leveraged buyout, then when those stocks don't deliver, anxiety comes in, then denial, oh my God, what's going on, then fear, then depression, then panic, then capitulation. So fear, denial, anxiety, 2007 to September 2008, then we switched October 2008 to February 2009 into depression, panic, capitulation and if I talk to the people that were invested then, most of them sold during that period because they were afraid to lose even more and that's something we have to think about as investors because that's the point of maximum financial opportunity, is capitulation of other investors. Now, I think we are past optimism, I think we are at thrill, we might see euphoria still coming but that's a risk I'm not willing to take and then we'll see in the next turn that happens anxiety, denial, fear, depression, panic and capitulation and perhaps even marijuana stocks will be a good investment when all these investors capitulate, Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, blockchain, when everybody capitulates, they are I think now in the fear range, not yet capitulating because the price hasn't seen those moves yet but slowly, now perhaps denial, slowly and when the next drops downs come, then they might capitulate just before exploding again, sentiment again if we hit the recession in 2020. So very interesting how this sentiment works. If we look at the Mariana Life Sciences Index, we really see euphoria, it has been that way in January 2018 and it has come back now. Now, did they capitulate in, did they capitulate two months ago? That's questionable but let's say they are in euphoria now and this might go up. Stock market, thrill, okay, not yet euphoria, if we have another 10-15% spike up that is something I would call euphoria. So what to do now? We are not in capitulation, if you see capitulation somewhere in the world, that's the place you have to invest. Stocks, not really there, a long way till capitulation, 50%, 60%, 70% down for the SAP 500. I don't know whether that will happen because we might have an inflationary crisis and then if you own assets, you are at least a little bit protected. So there are a lot of factors to keep in mind but if you are an investor, just starting, just thinking of what am I going to do, sometimes the best thing is just do nothing and be happy with small things in such an environment, such an euphoric environment. When things start to deteriorate, when everybody around you starts panicking, then it's the best time to buy things around you and if you do that over a long term, if you really buy the opposite of when everybody else is selling, then you know everything about investing. That's it. If you can buy when there is blood in the streets and sell in good times, that's it and be patient. Even if the market, if you sell everything now and the market jumps another 20%, fear of missing out, feeling bad, but if you are a long term investor that does that constantly over 20, 30 years, then you sleep calmly and there are always opportunities to merge your arbitrage, low risk opportunities to get the return, the same return the market is offering at a much lower risk. And the second point I want to share here, I'll make a special video about that, is to invest in businesses. If we look at the Bitcoin, what's the business of the Bitcoin, what's the dividend, what is the profits, what is the growth rate, what's the usage? Well, of course it's a hedge to monetary policy to all the currencies that they're out there, but that's not really a business investment story. If we look at pot stocks, of course the market will be, I don't know, trillions and trillions, billions and billions in 2036, possible, possible, but that's in 2036. If we look at the stocks and what those stocks are doing now, just a quick look at the income statement of Canopy Growth. We see operation losses 30 million, we see revenue of just 25 million, so they are losing double what they are making in revenue, not profits, net loss, compensations and all the other things, we are at 90 million. And of course there is always dilution as the weighted average number of outstanding common shares went from 163 million to 200 million. So this is investing on hope, on growth, exactly what you need for euphoria. On stocks, what to expect if you invest in stocks now, the earnings yield is 4% 3.94, much below the historical average, which is 7.37, the median 6.79. So you can expect returns from stocks over the next two decades to be on average 4% per year with ups and downs of 50% down and 20% to 30% up. However, if you invest in businesses, if you like the businesses, if you know the business will survive over the market cycle, if those stocks crash, you simply buy more, you reinvest the dividends and you reach a healthy long-term return. So the conclusion is, of course, there is a lot of euphoria in the market, be prepared, be hedged. Depending on what is your investing goal, be conservative and try to buy businesses if you must invest now, not buy into the euphoria. That's my message. If you can do that, I guarantee you that your investment returns over the long term will be much, much better.