 Hello traders at CMC Markets. Welcome to another update for Monday, the 3rd of July and I'm recording this on Friday the 30th of June. My name is Trevor Neal and I'm presenting to you from London. I am a research analyst at RRG Research. As we reach the end of the week, end of the month, the end of the quarter, the end of six months, it's worth thinking about what has been the best thing to be in this year, 2023. And this is of course the answer is the NASDAQ or the tech stocks or particular tech stocks but that area. I've done the chart here where each bar is six months so this is this year and that's last year and this is the performance in the six months so that's this year's performance and you can see that we've had 35% in six months and it's the best since the tech bubble and in that six months into the high we achieved 61%. So more is possible and historically has happened previously before we can say the bubble has burst but no need to say that this balloon will inflate as big as the last one but the question is has it got more to go but at the moment it's looking very strong and definitely that has been the right thing to be in and it's good that the RRG charts did pick that up right at the beginning of the year after the brutal punishing we hate technology it's all over value the bubble it's all over period that we had last thing for two six months there. There it is that's what has been the best to be in and maybe continue to be for a little while longer. Looking now at the relative rotation graph versus MSCI world so this is versus the average of the other stock indices global stock indices we see the best performing stock indices index compared to the others is the still the NASDAQ still pointing in the right direction northeasterly furthest to the right strongest and with good positive momentum as well we've got the Nikai that's a product of the weak currency more than anything else the S&P following having crossed into the leading quadrant the Dow still holding here and the broadly based Russell right over here in good trajectory in the improving quadrant but not exciting yet we've got weakening european it's getting worse saying with the footsie as well but these have separated out the cac leading it down the stocks the big stock a european stock index the moving into the lagging quadrant and the DAX looking like it's heading its way into there hence saying still pointing absolutely the wrong way on the daily chart we have a slightly different picture we still have the NASDAQ and the S&P and the Nikai on the right hand side but you remember the in the weekly chart sampling the Nikai and the NASDAQ were up in here in the leading quadrant and then the NASDAQ was heading northeasterly here they've come around a little bit so losing some momentum you're struggling a bit but still the strongest stocks against the average of the MSCI world average of the other indices also the european stock indices are in a much better place on the daily charts so here's the DAX still in the lagging quadrant but the stocks has crossed through the cac is which in the weekly was leading down is leading up so in the bounce there and the footsie also good trajectory there but still quite far from 100 so to say that they're having a short-term rally in relative strength but they're still facing the wrong way in the longer-term perspective this is the daily chart of the NASDAQ and here we can see the struggle we surged to the resistance point which we had identified and we've got precisely to it and it's backed off it from 15 200 it has pulled back to this consolidation top in here as we draw this a little bit better before to do when it's extended out like that but around the 14 600 level I'll check I'll home in on that in a moment it's been enough to turn the MACD daily MACD across it to downside that's the first time it's done that since the beginning of May and so we're feeling the resistance and we saw that in the RNG chart with the NASDAQ in the daily turning down from the leading quadrant losing momentum and here we see it in the absolute chart here now there is support let's zoom in on that homing in we see that the market has pulled back to previous resistance level which is now support it's quite normal behavior in a rising market zigzagging up like this high halted that advance we pulled back then we broke through it now we retest it where it's support there's a story that's gone on all the way up in here it is enough however to have crossed the MACD as I've said now the RSI look at this it's come down below 50 and then turned up again through it and that is typically the behavior of a market that's is reacting during an advance so the reaction may be over so people who've got a shorter-term perspective could see this support as somewhere to protect themselves for longs looking for a next run upwards and it could be as extensive as this one here which it went from 14 300 to 15 300 so if you add 1000 to this low here at 14 700 we'll call it be 15 700 which the next run Fibonacci projection for that would be up in here so it does look as though this long-term trend which is still intact we haven't got a top in place yet I don't believe it's just part of the normal progress bit of a wobble which is likely to resume and we probably possibly have got new highs ahead of us here now is a daily chart of the S&P it cleared the resistance as 4 300 resistance which was a struggle for a very important level broke it powerfully went up to 4 450 and then it's come back rather perfectly from a technical point of view to the breakpoint and has bounced from there we've mentioned this before that it could happen likely to happen it seems that it is happening and we are resuming the advance the RSI dropped below 50 and has come up so the pullback is is corrected the MACD which is somewhat lagging is still negative it does look as though we're on our way again that the trend is resuming on the upside traders can look for protection below the 40 4 300 look for the small amount of resistance at the high here at 4 400 to be tackled and then the next resistance is a long way up is at 4600 and that is from the high back in March D1 so we're there's a big gap between that high and the high of March 2021 so that leg could be quite extensive there so watch out for this move maybe already resuming and the high may be taken out with relative ease because it's not a strong resistance level and then that leaves it clear for an attack on that March high of 2022 I think I said 21 2022 we're watching the Dow Jones industrial average very closely there's a daily chart of it we've got a series of highs in here they're not precisely lined up but they're very close together 3400 4200 sorry and then extending up to a range of about 34600 so we're close to that now we're pushing up higher lows intact in here it's hesitant it has been rebuffed how many times one two three four five six seven eight nine times that level so it's a very significant level and we're pushing towards it every time the sellers get control the buyers come in more aggressively low higher low higher low is this another higher low here so watch out it could be something explosive going to happen here and if it does break up I think the next resistance is going back from April May of 2022 and that's at 3500 and 35350 right up there long way up so I can just clear these highs I should draw another line in here draw it in now for the future so we've got these highs in here and the clear that and I think the sky is blue above up to above the 34 35000 350 area I'm jumping to foreign exchange this is a weekly relative rotation graph here we've been talking I've been very keen on the Canadian dollar and particularly versus the Japanese yen for a slight change in behaviour here we've got continuing weakness in the euro and this is heading in a southwesterly direction wrap quite rapidly through the weakening quadrant towards the lagging quadrant the British pound has flipped around again resumed its stronger tone in the in this weekly sampling and the Canadian dollar is still the best one the only one with the British pound the only one pointing northeasterly then we got notably also the Japanese yen going the other way so let's start by looking at the euro so here is the euro which is having a bit of a wobble the move up here from around 95 up to 10 111 area was impressive but when we had this high and this high we had a bearish divergence in the MACD so we had severe loss of momentum into this high back in May then we came back hard to significant support which held very well around 106 50 then it's bounce and it's fading here and looking like it's putting in another lower high in here and turning down and still according to the RSI in the pro process of going down so the threat is now that this uptrend line here which I'll extend here going up to 107 area is is going to be visited again so this is looking a little bit wobbly cable has eased off and in the last few last two weeks but it's come back to support it has reached it so far but I'm not sure that it's really broken the uptrend of higher lows in place here and I think that's still good as I do this analysis it maybe is beginning to stabilize here if it doesn't stabilize here it's very likely to stabilize around 124 the MACD has crossed down the RSI has come down quite deep down below 40 around 39 and hooked up maybe the very first sign of it stabilizing if it were to take out this high here of 127 and I think you could protect yourself below 126 and look for a resumption a breach of the high and then I tackle this very prominent and formidable resistance at 130 up here but we have got the zigzagging pattern in the current zag looks like completing I like the position in the RRG and it could be there are signs that it is bottoming out here and finally our favorite pair and this the Canadian dollar versus the Japanese yen soaring away it's this has been clear to RRG followers for several months it's still moving strongly up powerfully up maybe moving close to parabolic the MACD is still very positive but it's moving towards caution you a significant resistance level of these double tops we'll call it a 110 there's and we're at we're at 10921 at the moment we're close to it everything's looking strong for it the RSI too higher lows in place here no divergence yet but be ready this one could be close to having a well-deserved rest in its advance and it is looking rather extended and parabolic in shape so you have been warmed if you're with us on this you should have been doing well out of it but we may be coming towards the end for the moment for this move and have a significant correction it's due for a significant correction so that may be ahead of us but I think it's probably quite soon I will leave it there for this week thank you very much for watching we always appreciate it and we're honored to give us your time we'll be with you again next this time next week it'll be Julius next week Julius to Campana so goodbye from Julius and I research analyst at RRG research and may the trend be with you