 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Definitely a tough day in the sporting world a fourth day with the news that Mike leach has passed away Mike leach of course one of the more fun personalities across all of sports not just college football But I remember I'd go home for Christmas and my stepdad would always like ask me Hey, do you know did you hear this most recent quote from Mike leach? I go back and I watched on Twitter YouTube whatever and like every time it lived up to the hype There was never like an oversold moment from Mike leach. It was always fun Did you know he already had to say almost regardless of what he was talking about and also like you think about sports the fun things are you want big personalities and you want at least for me fun offense and He brought both of those things. So a tough day definitely with Mike leach passing away We'll talk more about that tomorrow on the show with doctor at fang get his thoughts on stuff his memories of Mike leach, but also we're in preview the College football bullseeds and some more more like leach talk coming up then but just wanted to Open these things up here by talking about that because definitely a tough way to open the day for today And thoughts to everyone who was impacted by Mike leach because I know that that is a a lot of people out there But we'll talk more about that tomorrow on the show with Ed coming up on today here on covering the spread You're gonna take our first look at NFO week number 15 based on these spreads and money lots and totals over a fan Sportsbook I'll run through my power rankings haven't done that yet here on the show But I thought it might be a fun addition to the show kind of let you know where my numbers are at the top of the scales See who may be separating there and then we'll also recap last week here on the show and how things went just for transparency See his first transparency perspective on all of that This is covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim saw this I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire here Like I said to break down what we're seeing across the NFL entering week 15 both my power rankings perspective and a betting Perspective will dive into all that in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We of course are an upper podcast Spotify Stitcher Google podcast Amazon podcast wherever you listen You can find us and if you like what you hear drop us a rating interview as well because it does help us out a bunch Looking to get more out of this NFL season Well, now is the perfect time to download fan dual America's number one sportsbook because new customers get a no sweat first bet Up to one a thousand dollars. That's free bets back If your first bet doesn't win just download the fan dual sportsbook app It is safe secure and super easy to use then you can bet on anything from the money line to touchdown scores To over under yards plus fandal even lets you combine your bets for a chance at a bigger payout with a same game Parlor so don't miss the chance to get your no sweat first bet up to one a thousand dollars in free bets when you join Fandal make every moment more with fandal an official sports betting partner of the NFL must be 21 plus and the president select states first online a real money wager only Refund issued is not the job of free bets that expire 14 days after a seat Restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook.fandal.com gambling problem call 1-800 gambler or visit a fandal.com slash RG in Arizona 1-800 next step or text next step to 5334 2 in Connecticut 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org Chat in Indiana 1-809 with it in Kansas KS gambling help calm or 1-805-22 4700 also the number in Wyoming there in Louisiana 1-877-77 0 stop in Maryland MD gambling help org in New York 1-877-88 open wire text open Y or in West Virginia go to 1-800 gambler net So let's dig into my power rankings here enter week number 15 as I mentioned I thought it might be a good addition to the show just kind of give you a reset of where My numbers are at the top of the pool or some teams I think may be on the ascent maybe be underrated overrated stuff like that entering the week now these numbers Reflect injuries. I expect to impact week 15 specifically. So for example, DeBos Daniel is not done for the year But he's not gonna play for week 15. So I this is taking him out stuff like that So this is just for week 15, but broadly applicable for some other stuff as well So Baltimore might be lower than you expect because I'm expecting Lamar to sit again Stuff like that San Francisco the same thing the one thing that my two betting models agree upon is that the Eagles are second Regardless of the model there the team in first is not the same We'll talk about it a second, but the Eagles are second regardless the model They're efficient in every aspect an offense the defense has been able to overcome It's deficiencies in recent weeks getting Jordan Davis back signing in down to consume when Valjosa stuff like that I think that they're they are aware of their deficiencies and accounting for them and I find that super encouraging in terms of Trying to figure out a team's longevity Can you adjust after teams adjust to you? And it seems like the Eagles can it's not a hot take obviously to rank the Eagles second But I think that it is noteworthy because they have played a soft schedule people aware of that But I do think it's noteworthy that they do great out Well, even after you adjust for the teams they faced the key difference Across the two models is a team in first for each one in my traditional model Which is back testing better right now compared to the newer model the cheese are first and the other model It's a bills. I think the reasoning for this split is that the newer model is Expecting regression for the chiefs on late downs They are an outlier in how good they've been in terms of late down success rates Especially looking like third and long their bananas. I don't know if that's sustainable It might be because it's Patrick my home's Andy Reid. It's Travis Kelsey. It might be sustainable But I don't want to like assume that it is that they're a true outlier there And that's why they're lower in that model than they are in my more traditional model It's also penalizing them a lot for their defense, which is I think a legitimate liability letting up 28 points to Russell Wilson Brett Rippin on Sunday did not look good. So I Lean more toward my new models ranking for the chiefs specifically because the defense stinks. They've lost Key head-to-head matchups with the bills and Bengals That's not factored in like win-loss record is not in there But I wouldn't be shocked if they are the best team when all said and done I just don't think I'd put them there right now because the defense because of stuff like that and potential regression on late downs in the traditional model the rest of top five after the chiefs and Eagles is the Cowboys and Bengals and bills. I think that all makes a lot of sense After that we get a bit of a surprise because again, this is just for week six or week week 15 So knocking down teams like the Ravens the 49ers The Lions are next up. I think that's too high Which is why I'm like wincing as I say it I think they're too high in this model But this model gives a ton of weight to passing efficiency and the Lions have been among the most efficient passing offices and footballs this year Especially once you account for injuries, you know account for not even DJ Chark not having a monorail St. Brown for a couple of games Josh Reynolds is out. They missed a lot of guys and those guys are not healthy so this is Interesting to me. I think it's too high. They're 11th in my other model. So there is a pretty big gap But it's also it's the same tier. I think they're legitimately good football team You know even again if my more pessimistic model has them ranked 11th That's still pretty high and that's like a legit playoff team so I think they're an actually good football team and We'll talk about the implications of that as we talk about week 15 later on If we focus on the new model top five there is bills one Eagles two Bengals three Cowboys and then the cheese. So it's the same top five for both models Just in different orders Effectively with the cheese and the bills kind of being flipped and I can live with that But I do think it's worth noting the Cowboys and Bengals belong firmly in that top tier I have no reservations about making them either of those teams a top five team both these teams have Been good Despite a lot of changes throughout this year. They made adjustments, you know, more so the Bengals They made adjustments in the Cowboys, but I think that the big takeaway for me from looking at these numbers is There is a tier of five at the top after you downgrade the 49ers for their injuries that tier being Bengals Cowboys Eagles cheese spills not in that order But I think that those top five are the prohibitive favorites to take this thing down again Like no Lamar in there no Deebo stuff like that, but I think I feel very firm putting those top five in a tier The final ranking I wanted to highlight here was the Jags their eighth and one model and 12th and the other They're similar to the Lions where they're higher in the one model because it uses up passing efficiency a lot and they're very good They're Trevor Lawrence is playing good football. So they might be able to raid in the one model, but I like them a lot I Considered taking their money line against the Cowboys for this week I haven't gotten there yet because again my numbers do love Dallas, but I don't think we should sleep on them Maybe I should take the Jags money line given the defensive injuries of Cowboys have and stuff like that and now Terence seal being out Maybe I should go Jags there, but I don't know maybe I'll just Maybe I'll try to find a way to bet the over in that game. My numbers aren't showing value there But I just for fun to use to get something there I'll stack in DFS whatever it may be but the Jags and Lions both teams think are very noteworthy In terms of where they rank my power rankings But tier five at the top bills cheese Eagles Bengals Cowboys and I feel very good about those five teams Specifically now let's take those rankings and spin them forward to talk about week number 15 because right now There are five bets I want to lock in for week number 15 and two of them are actually in the same game That's all on Saturday for the Vikings Colts game I want the Vikings minus four and the under at 48 and a half both which are available right now at Fandalsport book my numbers have told me to bet against Minnesota in for their past six games and it were perfectly last week So if you remember last year if you were listening to cover the spread My numbers were high in the Vikings at all times talked about their wind total over this all season It became a kind of a running joke my numbers are too on the Vikings That is very much not been the case this year, especially the past two months or so So this is not a Jim's numbers are still too on the Vikings thing But my numbers for this week have the Vikings favored over the Colts by six point three seven and six point two six points Depending on the model. So both models agree. There is value here. I'm expecting Christian Dara saw to be back for this game He is a left tackle He cleared concussion protocol prior to week 14 But they held him out because he had two concussions and pretty rapid succession, but with his clearing protocol I feel like they get Dara saw back Harrison Smith probably back here as well. The Colts offense. I think they suck I don't think they'll be able to run the football here. I think the Vikings rush defense is pretty good the rushing offense numbers despite The name value of like Jonathan Taylor and some of the guys along the offensive line still it hasn't been good and Matt Ryan Potension a negative script that could get kind of gross and that's why I'm laying the minus four as far as the total It's a lot of the stuff, you know I don't think the Cal the the Colts be able to move the ball super well Skeptical Matt Ryan the Vikings on offense not the most explosive team So it is tougher to cover a four-point spread when I also want the under at 48 and a half You know, you typically want to go reverse of that But I do think both sides are the correct way to read this one So I'll take the Vikings minus four and the under a 48 and a half in that same game My numbers also do like another favorite this week and that's the Eagles minus eight and a half against the Bears I mentioned the Eagles are second in both my models right now The Bears are 29th or lower in both and a lot of that's because the defense the defense Wasn't good and then got really really hurt. So it may feel odd to have them so low with Justin Fields playing very good football right now, but the passing offense is still not very good and When you're talking about covering eight and a half, you know One of the fears you have is a backdoor cover But if they're not gonna throw the ball efficiently, which I don't think they will with our now Mooney being out Which is kind of bad talent a pass catcher It's tougher to see a backdoor cover happening and this defense is banged up Which may not be as true coming off there by but I don't think the Bears are a good football team That's good thing for them. They should be bad because it gets them a better draft pick That is a positive thing for them and fields has played good enough to give them hope So I think that's encouraging too, but I think the Eagles are just a very good football team I think they're better than the eight and a half implies Eight and a half is a key number in terms of if you're looking for teasers I'm not a big teaser person because typically requires me to have both Two situations I like and to get across the important key numbers This one does fit that and I'd be receptive to putting this in a teaser I just couldn't find a good dance partner for it So I'll take it straight up at the eight and a half if you have another game you like and are looking for a teaser I think this is a great one. I just couldn't find a second one myself. So Eagles minus eight and a half is the way I'd play this one But again, it is in play for that if you find another team that you want to tease for this week The other two bets I like for this week are both money line underdogs Those are the seahawks against the 49ers and the giants against the commanders Seattle is a plus 154 if annual you might be able to get 158 at some other spots So chop her out of this one and most of this is because The 49ers injuries make this a volatile offense to project right now because it's the first time we've seen A full game of Brock Purdy with no divo because when divo got hurt against the buccaneers They were already up big in that game and purdy. I think through like three pass attempts in the second half now purdy has an oblique injury And there's no divo that should eventually add up now it is Frightening to bet the Seattle money line given that You think about the way Seattle got manhandled by the panthers despite stacking the box in that game You know Christian McCaffrey is going to be able to go bananas in this game. So that's tough That's tough mentally to get over but I think Seattle's offense can somehow keep pace here So you've got a lot of volatility on the 49ers Which means that getting plus 154 on a money line is pretty intriguing Under 40 implied win odds for the for the seahawks there So yeah, they could get smoked. They might not get a stop at all defensively But that's all baked into this number So I am going to take the seahawks at plus 154 to win this game against the 49ers despite the fact it is Frightening to envision this 49ers rushing offense against the seahawks rush defense As mentioned, the other one is the Giants at plus 176 against the commanders the commanders are coming off a buy They're at home It is a repeat matchup and in that first one. I took the Giants money line I should have taken the spread because the money line wound up pushing But I still like them here I'm less bullish on this one than the seahawks one because I'm not sure what Leonard Williams will play Williams missed last week. I believe he's ruled boutful which Implies that he has a chance to suit up this week because he was not ruled out officially But they also could be without racy james and daniel bellinger The Giants though aren't laying down. I know that they didn't play well against the eagles But as mentioned the eagles are a very very good football team. I don't think taylor heinecky is equivalent to jill and hertz So volatility can be our friend taylor heinecky can be a volatile quarterback because he Kind of plays like he thinks he's patrick mahomes sometimes. He's not quite, you know They're athletically or from an arm talent perspective. So volatility can be a good thing And I think this is one of the spots where it does help us So I will be willing to take the Giants a plus 176 despite concerns or an injury specifically Leonard williams But also to a lesser extent ritchie james and daniel bellinger One bet i'm not making this week despite showing values of dolphins at plus seven and a half against the bills I'm just really worried about toa I talk a lot on the show about negative highlight bias and how it can play into The way we bet, you know, we overemphasize the bad plays and may underrated team as a result, but like The bad plays have been real bad Like it kind of seems a little yipsy like got the yips potentially. I don't know. I don't know what's going on But it looks real bad to and look better the second half against the chargers And I thought that was good, but it was still not encouraging this game is currently projected to have wind speeds around 15 miles per hour. I don't care about the snow, but 15 mile per hour winds We've seen the bills playing that we haven't seen the dolphins do so super successfully very often Jeff wilson's banged up, which means they might not be as able to overcome The elements in this game is they would if wilson and most are both healthy I don't think the bills are well suited for this weather either. We saw them playing in Game with a little bit of wind and some precipitation on sunday against the jets and the jets Barely covered, but like I thought played decently especially on defense there But that's also the jets defense. Just defense is a lot better than the dolphins. So It's possible. I'm overselling how big of a deal all this is the two a yip stuff combined with the winds But it's still rough. Um, I gave it thought I I think there's a chance that maybe I'm Overselling the concerns here, but you know, if you want to if you're not as concerned I would take the points at plus seven and a half But as of right now, I'd rather make no bet than make one that I regret. So for me I'm just going to wind up staying away most likely And ignore a spot where my numbers are joining value The final one I want to discuss was that the lions because again They're very different my two power rankings and the same thing applies in the york jets Just so happens both those teams are playing in week number third week number 15 If I look at my traditional model again, this one has performed better I'm kind of running them both in tandem and seeing which one back tests better to see which one I want to go with for next year as of right now the lions in the traditional model It says they should be favored by three points in this game despite it being in new jersey So it has the lions and three point favorites here The other one has the jets as three point favorites a six point difference between the two two models is nuts and Kind of concerning I guess but the lions against super high and one a little bit lower than the other The jets super high in the the newer model because it loves their defense Their early down efficiency is actually okay in terms of what they've done there. So I understand why We get to both situations where one model likes the lions one model likes the jets I didn't think there'd be a six point gap between the two because that is massive, but I'm just going to stay away. You know, if there is this much uncertainty I like both these teams. I kind of don't want to root against either of them So the way I get out of it is that with the model's degree and I say, okay I don't have a great read on this. I can just let it be and I again I'd rather make no bet than one that I regret. So I'm going to let that one slide and see how it plays out But loving what jerry golf is doing love this jets defense. So I'm excited for that game. I'm just not going to be wind up I'm not going to wind up betting it unless the markets go really really wild over the next couple of days So to recap the things I actually am betting for this week. I like the eagles minus eight and a half against the bears I like the vikings minus four against the colts and the under in that game at 48 and a half And then I like the Giants money line against the commanders at plus 176 and the seahawks money line at plus 154 As my bets for this week Hopefully week 15 goes as well as week 14 did speaking to which let's dive in now to our recap of this past week We'll start things off with some world cup. We talked at world cup with dr. Ed fang We had three bets we talked about last week on the show with ed Those wound up going one and two the losses were france england under two and a half goals And france england to have an even number of goals those were minus 126 and minus 110 respectively the winner Uh, the winning bet for ed was a thriller which was netherlands and argentina to have an even number of goals It was two nothing lights so tracking to be a good bet there But the netherlands scored to make it two to one which meant that I you know no longer even number But then they hit the equalizer in stoppage time to make it an even number I was on a plane so I didn't get to actually watch this game But uh reading about the fact is pretty fun. Uh, that was minus 115 So fun way to win a bet for ed. Um, you know one and two overall but fun to get the win in that fashion We're gonna talk more world cup of that on friday. So we're not going to get thoughts on the semifinals Before that comes up, but we're talking that on friday to talk about uh the the finals of the world cup get his read on that and We'll also have ed on wednesday to do a bowl preview So if you're doing like a college football bowl pool with your office or with your family and stuff like that We'll go through some strategies for that because that is a genius when it comes to that stuff We'll talk about that talk about some specific games. He likes games. He might like more than others. Um, but Should be a good one talking to ed there We had jj's ecorice and on to talk player props Uh, he split the yardage bets check out jj on twitter at late round qb and check him out at late round He had nick chubb over seven and a half receiving yards chubb Finished with three receptions for 20 yards that one hit pretty easily Other one was daniel bellinger over 19 and a half receiving yards bellinger Caught his third pass to get to 19 receiving yards, but he left with a rib injury. He Had he had a 61 snap rate here. He's typically around 90 when he's healthy. So Probably would have gotten there if not for the injury Tough way to lose that one with bellinger The touchdown bet for jj was isaia mckenzie a plus 290 mckenzie did have five targets and a rush attempt But no touchdowns there but a split on the yardage props and a tough loss in the bellinger one Probably would have had it if not for the injury, but A tough break for jj there finally we had ryan williams on to talk Both week 14 and monday night football the sunday bets for ryan went four and three hits were the chargers Plus three and a half they won that game outright The lions vikings over 52 and a half the bangles minus six and a half despite some wild movement on sunday in that game I think it closed like three and a half Despite being six and a half. So no clv, but a pretty emphatic win for ryan despite that That was also even money at six and a half and then he had the jags plus three and a half and they won outright so pretty Fun couple of wins there for ryan there The losses where the bill is minus nine and a half They won by eight the bucks plus three and a half and the dolphins charged over 51 and a half So profit week for ryan on sunday monday night ryan like the cardinals patriots over 43 and a half It's tough to know how much the kyler murray injury influenced the way this game played out because Cardinals often didn't do a whole lot, but also gave up some special team scores It finished with 40 points that the under hit there But hard to know how much kyler's injury from under stevenson davante parker all that stuff played into that game going under We didn't hit on the any time touchdown calls. Those were Kyler murray at plus 290 hunter henry at plus 330 Then ryan also mentioned mac jones over one of that passing touchdowns of plus 142 The yardage slash other props that what did go well for ryan three and one on those He had hunter henry over 30 and a half receiving yards. He had 70 in that game ryan also had james connor over 18 and a half receiving yards He had 29 and he had deandre hopkins with over six and a half receptions at plus 106 He finished with seven. So actually three eight out on those I counted the mac jones one under there, but three and on the uh, the yardage slash reception props Oh and three on the touchdown bets, but I think a solid reason ryan overall Hard to know how the the kyler injury would have influenced things if kyler would have gotten that touchdown He was running which I thought was good as we discussed in the show But I think a good read from ryan a good week overall for ryan once again I had I think my best week of the year so far. I hit on four to five bets We discussed here on the podcast on tuesday that did include the jag's money line at plus 166 It wound up closing at plus 150 once it became clear that trevor lorence was good to go And he was not good to go. He was great to go. He played awesome in that game. Um, so lorence Quickly becoming one of my favorite quarterbacks. I know like part of that's because I've Profited off of his playing well and that the ravens game had the money line and then this one as well But he's just he's a good quarterback and it's fun to watch Good college quarterbacks translate into good nfl quarterbacks. I think we're seeing that with lorence And it's it's been fun to watch. So I like lorence lotta and I like that that jag's team They're pretty fun as well. I also have a total in that game. We talked about that tuesday It was 42 and a half and I said that I wanted to wait and I would take it once it got to 41 and a half Which it did do during the day tuesday. So probably by the time you listened to it It was down to 41 and a half It actually got down to 40 and a half So I did not get the best number which is frustrating But the jag scored 36 by themselves and there were 58 total points in that game so Didn't get clv on that one But I felt good about my read on that and felt good about the results as well With that one going well over 41 and a half Other two wins were the lions at minus one and a half and the jets at plus nine and a half The jets one might have been a bit lucky because it was aided by a safety, but They lost that game by eight. I'll take it They could have potentially had some other stuff working their favor had it not been for the safety So I think they still might have covered, you know, even if not for the safety But I'll take it out of the way. It's a win wins a win for sure lines kick, but um They played really well the entire game It got to two and a half pretty quickly after we talked but then went back to one and a half Really fun market to track the entire week, honestly with that line It's kind of hoping we see something chaotic with this jets game too So maybe I can get some action there, but not expecting to but I wouldn't be mad If it were to get a little bit wonky there Um, but the lines just played great. So felt good about that one the entire way The loss to me last week was the seahawks at minus three and a half They got a big hole early They couldn't claw the way back a bit concerning that my numbers were on seattle once again I've been betting against the 49ers a lot not last week, but overall been betting against them a lot. So It's a convergence of a team My numbers have liked and one they've been more skeptical of than the market So we'll see how things play out But I do still feel good about the seahawks money line for this week despite the loss in them last week As for last night the two props I mentioned were remonder stevens and under 75 and a half rushing yards and nelson agalore Over 29 and a half receiving yards now for transparency sake I did not bet these because I was in florida So I could uh, unless I I think they have casino betting, but I couldn't be mobile. So I didn't uh, so these were more soft recommendations than Full recommendations stevensson got hurt. Uh, not fun to win that way I finished I think like 10 yards. So it's a win I don't feel great about it because I like remonda stevensson don't want her to get hurt but Did catch there agalore finished with 32 yards on 10 targets It took him 10 targets to get to the over on that number which again also doesn't feel great And also davante parker injury, but hey, you know, um I wish I'd gotten a beniova to bet those but a four in one week overall the full recommendations with one of the wins being a Plus 166 money line That's a nice week and I'll take that for sure It's nice confirmation that as we talked about a lot throughout this this year My results have not been good But the numbers are back testing well if I bet everything I'd have positive positive ROI both the money lines and spreads I haven't been doing that and haven't been profitable, but it's nice confirmation that That Act testing well can translate to good results going forward and I I can take a lot of uh saw us in that just have to keep picking well and Build on a solid week 14. Hopefully run it back once again in week 15 We'll talk more about week 15 of the NFL on thursday by talking to ryan williams It will also talk some player props with jj zack recent on friday as mentioned the rest of the roadmap for this week Got ed fang on tomorrow talks and bowls will talk again Like I said some Mike leech there as well talk about bowl pools and get you set for those add back with us friday as well Talk about the world cup final and get his read on that one in addition to jj on friday as well That is all that we have here for today though on covering the spread as mentioned Please make sure you are subscribed wherever you get your podcast because numbers move We want you to get these numbers as quickly as possible Before they move against uh moving our favor and stuff like that so You want to get the best numbers? Make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread to get notified as these podcasts go live each and every day On your podcast platform of choice, but also over on the fandom youtube page If you've got any questions for me, I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast Want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your bets across the next couple of days We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down some college football ball pools This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network