 Hello and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. My name is Anders Nyland and I am a member of this year's program committee of the Nordic Media Festival. And I have the privilege of introducing Mr. Gadde Leonhard. According to the Wall Street Journal, he is one of the world's best media futurists and he is the one who defines the standards within digital media. Today he is a media futurist, author and CEO of the Futures Agency. So please welcome Mr. Gadde Leonhard. All right, thanks very much. Does anyone still read the Wall Street Journal? That's a question. But anyway, it's a good title. I'm going to talk to you today about something very interesting, which is basically how you could possibly make money with content in the future. I used to be a musician and producer in a different life. I made 20 records. I was on the road for 15 years as a working musician. So content is very close to me. I went on the internet in the 90s and then afterwards started a few internet companies and became a futurist by consequence. But basically what I do is this. It's very simple. I listen. My company has about 20 associates that we work with and we listen to worldwide trends and see what people say. There's a great saying in China that says, if you want to know about the future, ask a five-year-old. So that's what we do. And we look at trends and we work with companies who are trying to redefine themselves mostly in the content business, the entertainment business. Here's a couple examples. So if you're on Twitter, wasting time. If you're on Facebook connecting, here's my Facebook or my Twitter ID, G Leonhard. Also, I'm taking questions through Twitter. So if you have a question, just send a tweet to G Leonhard. And I'll be looking at it while I'm speaking to see if I can squeeze in an answer in the conversation if you are actually connected. First of all, I want to know who here has done this in the last, say, six weeks? Who has done the like button for something on Facebook? Very good. Yes, so you have already paid with attention. Your like button is a payment. It's an endorsement. It's commercial value. What we're doing with our data generates trillions, dollars worth of stuff. And I would explain to you what that means. Even Borat does the light parking, as you can tell here. So we have a mobile data explosion around the world. If you're looking at these trends, it's quite simple. Of course, smartphones, tablets, mobile devices, and so on. Data is exploding around the world. And if you're looking at the number here, this is 2011. It's almost zero petabytes. And then at the end of 2015, 7,000 petabytes of information going through the web. Will this information come from CNN or Alger Zero or the BBC or NRK? Some of it will. But most of it will come from the users. Now, that is a big difference because we're also seeing in general. For example, I was just in Indonesia last week with a client. 80% of their mobile phones are possible to connect to the internet if they had the internet. They could connect, right? But they're working on that. So we're going to see in the next five years, 90% of all internet access will be done on mobile devices, not those machines. There's a very big difference here. People who use mobile devices are different kinds of people. They're not those who use the computer for work. Look at these stats. Probably can't see them. But the numbers that are connected to the internet, China, India, Brazil, that's where all this stuff is going to explode. What some people call the other 3 billion. And when they are connected to the internet on mobile devices, you will see sharing like you've never seen before. I was in Russia two months ago. I went to a factory of people who are copying every single book that can find with a scanner. It takes about 25 minutes to scan every book and sell it, give it away for free on the internet as a 500K download. Every single piece of digital content will be available no matter what it is. No matter how much we try, the data explosion is huge. Connected machines, machine to machine networks, billions of devices doing all kinds of things. And of course, revolutions started, not started, but aided by the internet. Not started, that would be wrong. They had their own agenda. But we can watch revolutions now by going to Twitter, like this example, live on TNN, the Twitter news network, people treating about why Mu Barak isn't coming to deliver his final speech. So this is already happening and it pretty soon is going to be television and radio as well. Take my jacket off, I'm getting excited. And now, where this complete convergence of online and offline. If you think that the internet is a different place, you are mistaken. There's no such thing. Online and offline are completely convergent. In Israel, you can go to a fun park and you can like a slide. You can log into Facebook and get jeans for free, real jeans, not virtual jeans. You can do that too. So there's no difference between online and offline anymore and the World Economic Forum has a really great paper on what they call personal data. The use of personal data. You can get it at the World Economic Forum webpage. But basically what they're saying is think of personal data as a digital record of everything a person makes and does online and in the world. So what we're seeing here is that this kind of data generated by us, by average, but just by normal people, not by geeks, right? Exploding, global digital data, exploding. Global devices, 50 billion devices connected to the internet by 2020. So what does that mean? That data is the oil that we're going to live off. That data is information. It's stuff about us that we would like to share or not like to share depending on what it is, but it's extremely powerful. This kind of data can be volunteered by us, like Google, we volunteer to Google. It can be observed, Facebook, or inferred, which means that we can guess. For example, if you're on Spotify, I think Spotify is a Norway also, right? If you're on Spotify, I can look at your list of songs and I can infer that you're a certain kind of person if I saw your list. That's called inferred. So this is our reality now. We live in a world where we are in the sky generating floods of data. Where we are, what we like, where we've come from, whether we're single or not, how old we are, what kind of things we like, what books we have ordered, everything. Very scary, but also extremely empowering. This is the thing about power, of course. Consumer power is like nuclear power. Now, it can be a real disaster. Maybe it has some benefits, too, but how do we juggle this power that we have all of a sudden? Personal data says the EU commissioner is the new all of the internet and the currency of the world. What does this have to do with media? Well, clearly, somebody is going to have to pay some time. Will we put up paywalls? Will we put people to jail for free downloading? Is all of that going to generate money? Is the Digital Economy Act in the UK or the Three Strikes Adobe going to help us to make money with content? I doubt it. I think the money is in the data. Ask Google, right? $2.9 billion a month was the month made with free stuff through data. So now it's the users who generate content. Coke says, the marketing manager of Coke says, it's a revelation to discover that from the 150 million views that they had on YouTube, only 25 to 30 million were actually caused by them. All the other videos and stuff were done through users. The users make the data and the users, of course, are the data. Now, here's a bitter pill for us. Anybody who wants a job, anybody who wants to do anything is now by default public. Because basically what happens when you go to a meeting, do you check out this person on LinkedIn, business network, or Zing, or Facebook? You look at people before you meet them. Many of you probably looked up my profile before deciding to come here or have a coffee outside. So we're public now. And our default setting is publicy, as Jeff Jarvis says, not privacy. If I want privacy, I have to adjust my settings. And I do. You would not see pictures of my kids on my Facebook profile. In fact, I try to get rid of them when they link to me because I consider that to be private. But we have to do something. Now the setting is the reverse and just 10 years ago, all of us were by default private. Now we're all by default public. We may have a problem with this, but that's our reality today. I mean, we can be found and we want to be found because we like the benefits of being found, which includes work. Every single person is now constantly uploading something. I think it's 26 million new images on Flickr a day. 40 hours of video on YouTube every minute. Everywhere you go, people are uploading. In five years, you probably can't even live to your head without a video of it being available. Kind of scary, but publicy. So there's a new kind of value exchange coming up and that basically means I pay attention to stuff and that is worth a lot of money. I pay attention to content. I look at it. I forward it. I recommend it. That becomes a valuable transaction. And of course the reverse content considers me and both of course in the end is true. That's the value exchange. The value exchange of my data versus your services. Ask Google. They get to read my email. People here using Gmail, you guys use Gmail? They read your email, right? Not Eric personally, but the machine does. So when you go to Rome, the email box says here's apartments and they know a lot about us. In return, we get all the cool Google stuff. The apps, the search, the docs, Android, you name it, right, 350 something beta things. And of course Gmail. That's the deal. My data versus your services. Why can't this be the deal for content? How come the music industry has not made it possible to say I'm going to listen to music, give you my data and in turn you can give me stuff that matters which used to be called advertising. 71% of content in the last 50 years has been paid for by what used to be called advertising. And of course taxes. So if you don't like taxes, let's talk about advertising. Why can't advertising fund this for us in the future? The answer is because we haven't led it. And because it was too early of course, right? But look at the music industry where I worked for a long time. I wrote two books about music. Most of it is available for free on the web. The music industry has shrunk by 71% in one year. And how has the music industry achieved this? With one single headliner and that says protecting intellectual property is key to growth. Congratulations. What an achievement. You are so protected nobody wants to even pay attention to you anymore. You're so protected you'll be completely invisible very soon. Don't let that happen whatever content business you're in to you, okay? That's a death trap, as we have seen with music. Now it's the users who are also generating what's called meta content, you know content on top of content, through videos, through tweets, through relationships, through forwarding, through doing all these things that we've seen. I mean YouTube uploads I mentioned already 40 hours a minute. WikiLeaks. No matter what you think about WikiLeaks, but now we can find out anything. If I tell you right now as a musician I pray with a rolling stones you probably wouldn't believe it anyway but you could look it up very quickly. It is almost impossible to lie on the internet. You have to be pretty good at lying. I mean it's very easy to lie on television as we know weapons of mass destruction, right? Ubiquitous lie. Not true. On the internet, very hard. Very hard to lie. So now the question is who do we actually pay attention to? Because when there's 5.6 billion people connected to the internet on mobile devices what we pay attention to is what lives and what we ignore dies. It's as simple as that. If your newspaper is ignored, you're dead. Paywall or not makes no difference. If you no longer relevant as a broadcaster, radio, television, you're finished. The second question is once you're relevant how do you get the money? That's the second question. So who pays for our attention and how? How does this work? How does this mechanism of money making the bread from heaven, how does that work? First of all, it's a total redefinition of consumer. I bet you right here right now that no longer we think ourselves as stupid people to sit on a couch and work in remote control. That's this person on the left. Now it's this person, a consumer, a producer, an evangelist, a multiplier, a community member. We're all different kinds of people now. 71% of American kids have created or uploaded content to the internet. So we're all of a sudden becoming different kinds of people. As Kevin Kelly says, it's completely different now. It's no longer pages, PCs today, me, it's about streams, clouds, about now, not yesterday, about we and about data. So now when you go to London to have sushi, what do you do? You go to Google and search for sushi. Well, you find the stuff from a year ago or the stuff from Keith Michelin or whatever, which is two years old. You go to search.twitter.com. You'll see people who are still sitting there who have written the reviews about the food when you come in. That's real-time search. Using apps, TripAdvisor, QIPE, that's about now and about us, not them. So that's how the consumer is changing, paying with attention, Gmail, iAd news, Facebook ads, location-based services. Have you gotten your free gap genes yet? Next time you come to America, log into a shopping mall, into Facebook, and very likely if there's a gap, they will give you a free pair of genes just for logging in and saying that you're there. In Germany, there's a bar where you can tweet about them and you get a free beer. I mean, this is the kind of stuff we're going to do. You love this, it's funny, actually, it's funny. I tried it, it works. Beer was quite good too. But this points towards the future. If we pay attention to somebody, then their favor is returned to us. That used to be called advertising, right? Now it's a process of what we call social commerce. Even a website allows you to pay through Twitter. That brings me to the Facebook monster, which truly is a monster because it's so powerful. But do ask this question, are we in control of Facebook? We would argue about this for a long time, but it has happened already many times before. If Facebook would do something we don't like where we lose trust, they are finished in three months. There has never been before in the history of the connected world, a company where we can just pull our trust in a couple of weeks. Because if they mess with our data, we're out of there, we're deleting accounts, right? We can't do that with Microsoft. We couldn't do that. We were dependent on them. We couldn't do that with NASA, with the BBC. We couldn't do that, but now we can. So all of a sudden, Mark Zuckerberg says, we have the most powerful distribution mechanism that has been created in a generation. He's not talking about we have the most powerful way to waste time or to connect with strangers or to meet women or whatever, right? He says, it's a distribution mechanism. Think about that for a minute. A distribution mechanism. What is he gonna distribute? Cards, bananas, no? Media, your stuff. Facebook and other social networks that's like 10 the same size of Facebook, QQ, Mixi, and so on, China. They're the next broadcasters. If you're not broadcasting through Facebook, you're missing a huge opportunity. That's where people are going. We're going to see a future move in this direction and clearly a connected and peer-to-peer driven advertising, as we can see here, mobile advertising is the key to this. Because mobile advertising actually works, as we can see on this stat here from Morgan Stanley, reach, targeting, engagement, viral transactions, we're all right there on the mobile. And if 90% of the web traffic is on the mobile, this is a very good match. So yes, you can say so far YouTube and Google News hasn't really paid, that's true. But we're now entering a very, very serious part of the web where these things are actually happening. So don't throw out the baby with the bathwater. We'll see new kinds of money. Who has bought Facebook credits yet? Anyone? Facebook money? You should. I think it's 10 credits for a dollar. Because you'll find out what happens there is a parallel currency. Facebook will allow me as a creator to make money by other people donating credits to me and then I can take that money and I can buy an airplane ticket with it on Facebook. We used to joke three years ago in a band, for example, is there a day that we can pay our landlord with Facebook money? And the reality is, that's coming. We can buy tickets, we can buy equipment, we can buy a car on Facebook with Facebook credits already. There's a whole new currency coming up that's going to also get people paid in the content arena. So today, I must laugh when I read all the stuff from the music business and all the various things about keeping people from doing illegal stuff on the internet because the bottom line is, it's not about downloads. Anybody can download for free. It doesn't mean it's good or relevant, right? It's about attention. It's not a fight for distribution, it's a fight for attention. Because in this world, whoever gets my attention is where I'm going to put my money. Attention and trust. So if you're still thinking about distribution and blocking distribution, like most studios and of course publishers do, right? That's looking the wrong direction. Because as consumers, people are bidding right now at this moment to get your attention. I mean, Google AdWords is a bidding process, right? And so is Facebook. And so will be Twitter and YouTube. And whatever else comes afterwards. It's a bidding process. So now we're entering the phase of social commerce. That sounds kind of disgusting in a way, right? Because you'd say like, I have friends, I'm gonna sell them something. But that's not what it means. It means word of mouth. If I like your record, if I like your TV show, if I like your car, I'm going to do something to actually show, if I like it a lot, I just push the like button, I forward the link, I'll do something, I give it a rating and send this out to my people. That generates a flood of things. The viral mechanism that we've seen on the web already, that's going to be times 1,000. So if you're the content business, think about this for a second, right? Data is the new oil. That's your money. All the data that people are sharing, producing, generating is worth more money than oil was for a long time. We were, of course, in an oil-driven economy. Now in a data-driven economy. Oil is, of course, going away sooner or later. Clearly, just evaporating, so to speak. At least our reliance on it will. So now we're relying on data to find out who's saying what and how can we orchestrate this. As Kevin Kelly says, this is very important, data flows. It's not downloaded. We should take this lesson and say, you know what? If we're wondering why people download movies or music for free, they're not actually downloading anymore. Go to a party of a 15-year-old today, which I go to all the time, my son is 16. What do they do? They don't bring hard drives and say, oh, I got 100,000 songs here I got for free because I'm such a great thief, or whatever you want to call them, right? Liberator, you know, whatever. No, they don't even have hard drives. They have a playlist on the website. And they're the DJ of the virtual jukebox, right? Groove Shark, Spotify, Simfy, YouTube, of course, number one virtual jukebox, Hype Machine, whatever. It flows, it doesn't get downloaded. Five years from now, everything is about access and very few things are about copies. That's where everything is moving and we'd better be ready for that. We're moving into a world that's going from the network, you know, by the American definition, NBC, BBC, CBS, the network, to the networked. What are networked economies? Clearly eBay, we know Bayer without seller, right? Skype, no phone calls if the other guys aren't online. All the good stuff we like, Amazon, Google, YouTube. As an example, the idea of one too many, in this case, you know, one central entity broadcasting, our world is becoming many, too many. And that doesn't mean that one too many will leave or just evaporate, it will not. It will be at the same time. But you better be ready for a serious competition because if you are the one too many business, guess what? Now there's like 50,000 people who are also broadcasting and they're definitely stealing time from people. Ted.com, one of the best site for online videos, has more videos on the Discovery Channel and they're over the air, right? They're not actually paying for any of that either. So it's going in this direction but of course, as an example, MTV, at one point, what every kid watched to get the coolest music. Within 24 months, this 22-year-old guy from the barrier comes up with a stupid idea which is to say, broadcast yourself, right? What kind of idea is this? Who wants to listen to my broadcast? It's useless. You know, I'm not a superstar. But nevertheless, 24 months later, MTV has taken a backseat to YouTube. Amazingly enough, they're still out there and still selling advertising, which is quite interesting. But YouTube is in the mind of people now as the many-to-many, the networked business. So that brings me to copyright, a quite interesting topic. In a one-to-many world, I can say that I own everything I have created or that my artists have created. Because of course, the law supports this. Because when I broadcast, I can tell people at this time it's the broadcast or you can buy the DVD in Greece, but not in Turkey and whatever, right? I can control all of these things. But in a many-to-many world, we're sharing so all of a sudden it's less about copyright, it's more about usage, right? The permission to use, to access. The permission to access and share what happens as a consequence, right? YouTube is a many-to-many usage-right scenario. But of course, copies aren't made, at least not in principle, right? Of course, in reality, they are. So a tough lesson for us in the content business, there is no difference between copy and access. It's the same thing. Streaming, downloading. Oh, the lawyers would have a field day with this. When you stream a movie, you can save it. Everybody knows how to save a YouTube movie, right? I mean, all of us have done this. The stream ripper or recorder, right? Same thing. So now the money is shifting, this is very painful, but inevitable, we have to deal with it. The money is shifting from the idea of selling copies to the idea of providing usage, offering usage and agreeing to that use. Don't refuse permission. Look at the music business. 10 years of saying, we don't want this. And if you asked them last month, they will say the same thing again, we don't like this. And it's our imperative not to agree. And that's true. It's absolutely true. The laws say as you can refuse, but the reality is you'll be broke by the time you do it. So think about the alternative. We have to move where the money is moving, which is usage rights for many to many services. This idea of saying that we control distribution on the internet, that's yesterday's idea. That's idea that some technology vendors will talk to you about, like DVD region coding. Some of you may know this. It has turned out that when you buy a DVD in Hong Kong, you can't play it here because it's region coded to a region. People who do that once are the biggest pirates of illegal downloading ever because you punish them. For their honesty and integrity of buying a DVD, it won't play here. They will never buy another one again. Today, if you buy a movie on iTunes, to watch on the plane or wherever you want to watch it, did you know it was a 30-day period where it expires after you've purchased, regardless of the watching? I found out on my honeymoon trip with my wife. I bought 30 movies for her. Six weeks later, we're on the plane, expired, expired, expired, expired, 100 euros later. Does that turn a legal user into an adversary? Very bad idea. So we can't really do much about control. We have to embrace and empower, enable and engage. That is the only way forward, even though we may actually hate it because we used to control. I mean, I wrote five books. I'd be very happy if I could force you to buy them right now. And I was until five years ago. There was no other way to get the book than to go and order it. Now I'm giving it away for free on the web because that's better for me than not you getting it at all because you will not buy it for on-demand printing. So if you're in the content business, please, think about this. Don't act too late, right? When the eggs are already fried, you can't get the chicken back. It's about enablement, engagement, not prevention. So we're in a world that moves from broadcast to broadband. Think about this. A broadcast is actually quite interesting because it's one to many. We can pour the watering can over everyone and everybody has to watch the same stuff, the same commercials, and we have a big audience. Guess what? That's ending because in broadband, we don't have this. In broadband, we have 100,000 channels and I'm just gonna watch off-road biking in the Mexican desert all day long because that's what I like to see. So that's what happens in a broadband society. Broadcasters had a monopoly of attention, a good monopoly, a state-supported monopoly where we happily pay our 300 euros in taxes. And we should. I'm all for that. But let's not bank on this monopoly of attention because all of a sudden, the world is a different place. There's other ways to do this. Now in a world that goes from me, or them, to we. If you use Flipboard or the Google Reader or Papalli, you know what we means? It means what the other guys have curated for you. And I tell you what, I'd be extremely happy if a really good writer, author, editor would help that process and I would pay for that. But I would not pay just to get content from them. I would pay for the curation, the packaging, the quality because my time is more important than money. This is something very important for us to remember in Western countries, not so much in Asia or developing countries, our time is worth more than money. We will not save two euros just because we can save them. We will save it because there's no other way. Ask yourself the simple question. If a song was 10 cents euro to download, would anybody bother looking for illegal downloads? Just not worth your time. So there's something about the pricing that we have to figure out when we go from me to we. The me is dumb. This television doesn't know who I am. And thankfully, right? But these guys know who I am because it's connected to the web. Google television will know everything about me that the regular television never knew except for them asking at the door. That's a vast difference and the same goes, by the way, of course, for advertising. If you're in the advertising business, this is the dumb way and still works, the watering can. Get everyone to be interrupted. The future is a smart way, which is the sprinkler system. Reaching people, specific people on platforms like Facebook and others, where we can actually use the data to make it smart. And you know how much money is in this? You know what the global advertising budget is. Anybody have an idea? Lots of zeros as a hint. $560 billion a year spent on advertising and then other 500 billion spent on marketing, public relations, data mining and what have you. It's a trillion dollars. Trillion dollars is spent to reach us. Now ask yourself this simple question in the trillion dollar budget. Isn't there money for content to get funded by some of this? Clearly, the music industry is 17 billion. That's 0.17%, oh, 1.7, sorry, just dropped a zero. Okay, so there's enough money for that to happen. I think in the end, this TV knows who we are, right, to connect to television. We may not like this idea very much, but by giving that television access to some of our data we'll receive lots and lots of benefits like we already have with Gmail in a very similar process. We're living in a world that goes from copy to access, from the New York Times to the Kindle, from the Ripped CD or from iTunes to Spotify if they are allowed to live. Different story. Look at what happened in music in the US. Last year there was 1% growth of digital sales in the US. I mean, can you believe that? 1% growth in digital sales of music. When everybody in the neighbor has a mobile phone now that plays music, right? The growth is nothing, is zero, right? But Pandora, which is a great online streaming service, look at their growth. It's about access. Funded access subsidized by advertising and others. So here's my advice to you in the content business, whatever business you're in, don't sell copies. Don't sell files. If I'm just going to pay 14 euros for a file of a digital book, and that's all I get, right? I probably will do it once or twice, of course I'm kind of stupid, I will do it three or four times, but I won't continue. It doesn't scale, it doesn't have a context, it doesn't have the added value, it's just a file. The same goes, of course, for iPad apps. Why is Wired Magazine and Cosmopolitan? Why aren't they continuing to sell? Why is the Bonnier Magazine Popular Science the reverse? They don't charge per unit. They charge 15 euros or dollars a year. It's a flat rate. It's an interesting model. Don't sell the file, sell everything around it. Context, curation, collation, all the really stuff that creates the value. Kevin Kelly, who is the co-founder of Wired, very smart guy, he said, when copies are free, you need to sell things that can't be copied. And the fact is, whether we like it or not, copies are free. And whether the law approves of it or not, that's the fact. Again, I hate this idea personally. I would rather have you buy my copies. But the reality is, if we want to prevent people from copying stuff on the web, we have to move to China, and even they can't do it. We're gonna end up in prison, all of us, just because we don't want to change our business model. Bad idea. Let's figure out what else we can sell, because there's a lot that we can sell. And Kevin calls us the new generatives. Look it up, new generatives, Kevin Kelly, you'll find lots of stuff on the web about this. Just give you an example. If I listen to free music on Spotify, I really like, say, John Mayer. I go to a concert of John Mayer here, or in Oslo. And on the screen, it shows a QR code, a quick response code that I can scan with my mobile phone. And when I come home, they offer me a concert download of the very same concert I just went to for two euros. That's called immediacy. Of course, I love John Mayer, I've just been there, maybe you can hear me scream in the recording, doesn't matter, two euros, no big deal. I buy, 10,000 people buy. Last year in America, $350 million was sold of live concert recordings that people attended. That's a new generative. Same goes for all the others, which I don't have time to get into, but there's value here. So now Hollywood, and of course, you have traditional content companies, they're screaming in terror of this, because basically what's happening is that ownership becomes access. And we can use copyright law as a hammer to say this is not good, and we have. Try it many different ways. But does it generate an income? Does it make sense? What we're seeing really is that distribution is replaced by attention. So if you're banking on distribution, not a good idea, it's now about ownership, access, attention, and the new generatives. You have to look no further than the car industry to see this. Zip car, anybody know Zip car, right? The biggest growth in the car industry right now is not car buying, it's car sharing. And this is a global phenomenon. I think in fact, your next car could be an app. I'm not joking, you take this app, you walk up to a car, that's part of the club, it opens the door with your app, and it starts the car with your app, and that's your car. You pay for the app. Car sharing. Why do I need to own a car if I can share? I mean, of course, I would like to have a nice car, it would be harder. But look a little bit down the road. We don't have to own everything. In fact, that's the trend that we don't. Very same with music, motion pictures, in Denmark, just around the corner here, TDC Play, so ISP, Mobile Operator, has included the music and the offering. So if you buy DSL access or mobile phone, music is free, bundled. And why have they done that and spent that 20 million euros or so on the music and paid the rights owners, right? Not illegally, but legally, right? Because their churn rate, you know, people leaving, the contract has been reduced by something like 30, 40%. And that's worth 50 million. It has a benefit to them. There are solutions for these things. So the future is this, you know, this walled garden of this company here, right here, and many others, the benevolent tyranny of Steve Jobs. Walled gardens in the future will become just about impossible. Walled gardens are system failure because we cannot connect outside of it. That's why in the future, we're going to see collaboration of content companies, social networks, appetizers, telecoms, and device makers to generate a new content industry. So if you're a publisher or a book publisher or a magazine or a broadcast, look in this direction for new partnerships. Google is not the enemy, and neither is a telecom, right? We're all together here to create a new, what I call, telemedia ecosystem. And there's no other way than to create it together. So from here, skip this one, very important fact, Google has already achieved this, right? Using all the social stuff that we do, Google's market valuation here on the left, right, is already pretty much all of the combined other content companies in the US. So Disney, Viacom, News Corp, Comcast. How does Google make more money than all of the content guys together because they use data to generate business? They use an open platform, right? They're viral. They empower the consumers. So there are three ways to get paid. So it says Shelley Palmer. This is very important. I want to share this to you before I do a little bit of wrap up here. As a blogger, I'm paying because I'm paying for you to read my stuff. My time is payment, right? Then there's you pay, paywalls. Subscriptions, that's by far the most popular way, which is they pay. In other words, get those people with a trillion dollar budget to pay for my attention to give me free stuff. Cable TV, if you have cable TV, guess what? If you just subscribe on the lowest possible channel on the volume that you're paying, right? They don't make any money and they only make money with the ads because it costs a boatload of money to put the cable into your house. But when you start buying more stuff, boxing or racing or porn or whatever you're into, right? Then all of a sudden they're making a boatload of money there as well. So upselling, right? That is the key. The upselling from this process and what we're going to see in the future is a combination of these three models. I pay, you pay, they pay. There is no recipe. Looking for a recipe, I can't give you a recipe. You have to figure this out yourself because it's a cultural question. Why are we willing to pay and for what? It's a cultural question. In America, newspapers will die out probably in five years. People will stop printing in a very large degree and this country is projected to be about 10 to 12 years and in India about 25 years. It's a very large cultural question. So turn on the mixer for your business model because that's what you're going to have to do. To figure out, I pay for you to read me, okay? Then somebody else pays for your attention plus you have subscription is a mix. It's a revenue mix that you have to figure out. Oven consulting research in the UK says basically what we're looking at is a complete rethinking of the business model of the content industries not just thinking about cash, getting paid cash but getting paid with virtual money, Facebook money, personal data, influence, time and other things. Now you may argue and say this is way too complicated for me. I just want to get paid. Well, welcome to the new world, okay? We're living in a world of permanent beta. We don't have a choice. You can say you don't want to be part of this and you're just not going to be part of any of it. That is our future. New money, competing with free, I don't have much time to get into this but if I got a euro for each time I got this question, I'd have to have my own plane waiting for me to take me back to Switzerland. You don't compete with free. Because free is just a copy of the content, it's just a file of meaningless zeros and ones. We compete with free because we're better. We're better service, better interface, safe, easy. It's fair and attractive pricing. If you've ever been to the US, you know the biggest phenomenon right now in motion pictures and movie consumption is Netflix. You guys know about Netflix? You pay $10 a month and you have access to the entire catalog of all of the studios streaming on demand and DVD in the mail, $10 a month. Why would people do this? They can steal all the content, right? They can just download movies, $10, it's $10. Turns out people are really interested in good quality, high definition, good service, $10 is low enough. 22 million people subscribing, 22 million people a month. So if it works, it really works, better interface, social interconnected, likable brands, better tools, that's how we can compete with free. We don't compete with free downloads of news or books or music, we compete on quality and sense making and context and service and of course price. That is a crucial thing. So a little bit further in this direction, you've seen some of those things. WIMP, I think it's a Norwegian music distributor here, Spotify, Simfy, we're going from this idea of copyright to use it right as I said before because when I use WIMP or Spotify, I don't pay for the copy, I pay to get inside. That's a very powerful model, I think that works also in the long run. Okay, I'm gonna jump ahead a little bit because otherwise we'll be here at midnight and I wanna get on the boat and look at the beautiful fjords. So Tim O'Reilly was a publisher and the S had something very important. As a publisher, our mission is to create more value than we capture, to generate more meaningfulness so that people can't leave because we're doing such a good job that they're stuck to us like glue. They're addicted to our quality, to our curation. We need transparency, we need trust, we need user control and value. That's how we're going to generate money. Not by doing the reverse and saying you have to pay, otherwise I hate you. Good luck with that. I think very, very, very few companies can do that. So give me a brief minute for a summary. Data is the new oil. Think about how you're using data, how you can integrate smart advertising, how you can investigate how to use people's data to pay for things, same thing here. Moving from the idea of one to many to the idea of many to many, and the idea of usage, right? Why not have a public license for the reuse of your news? A public license that says you have to share the revenues as a consequence? I mean, this is already all being discussed, of course, all over the place rather than saying that we need to build walls so it can stay inside. Most pay walls, in my view, are also attention walls. And most attention walls will kill you because your audience shrinks to 5% from the origin. This is a fight for attention, not for distribution. We don't need laws that stipulate how people can distribute content. We need to have some clever ideas for attention-getting because the money is there. We don't need to stop people sharing because that is the nature of content. Without sharing, music is dead. It goes from copy to access, from ownership to access, distribution to attention, the new generatives. That's where you should be spending all of your time. If the record industry has spent a much time on the new generatives and have spent on soon their own customers, we wouldn't be looking at 71% decline now because it would be totally clear that people in principle are willing to pay for things that have value to them. And we can't force them to pay if they don't see value. So that's the new generatives. This model, put that stuff in the blender, figure out what kind of business model is right for you. In some rare cases, maybe you can charge people whilst your turtle can, barons can. But in general, I think that's difficult. New business models, composed out of those. If you're not broadcasting on Facebook, you should because the new currencies and the new money is coming from this direction as well. Most importantly, my last point, if you are in the business of media, it's all about trust. People will trust you for the quality, for the timeliness, for the honesty, for the deal, for the value. If they lose their trust to you, you can pack it up. So no matter how you want to monetize, it's always going to be about this. Thanks very much. And here's my Twitter handle. I didn't look at my Twitter, actually, I'm sorry about that. But thanks very much. Do we have time for a question or? Let's see what we've got here. Shut up and get off the stage. No, no, just, okay. Okay, just one question from Twitter, just to make it pro-rata here at least. Should third world countries focus on getting connected as the best way out of poverty? Joan, thanks, Joan. Very good question answers. Yes, obviously, it's proven that 10% of connectivity increases GDP by 1%. This is why all developing countries want to get online as fast as possible to actually build their own GDP in this way. Good question, I do think I have to get off the stage now. So because there's a great speech coming after me from Tristan, is he here? Tristan, where is he? Okay, I'll be taking a break or what are we doing? Anybody? Take a break, two minutes. Thanks.