 It is pretty clear that the MLB schedule makers are trying not to compete with Thursday night football because if you look at the Slade for today It is scatterbrained is the one way I would say things because we got games starting at noon games starting at 2 games starting at like 5 o'clock and Not a whole lot to choose from so weirdly the main slates not a fan dual locks at 5 p.m We also an early only slated 2 p.m So let's make the best of what we got and make this a split Slade podcast for today Here on the solo show we'll be breaking down both the early only and the main slate as always We'll do the main slate first starting off with that to keep it fresher for those who are listening later on That's a 505 p.m. So you're listening after 5 o'clock. Sorry. We'll see you tomorrow just for games there We'll talk about that first and then we'll talk about the early only slate That is three games locks at 210 We'll do the main slate first if you want to check out where the early only slate breakdown begins Go to the episode description check out the timestamp there I'll put the timestamp in that description go there hit that up get those lineups in then come back for the main slate So again starting off with the main slate a 505 early only slate at 2 p.m Coming up later on we'll break down the main slate here in just one second But first before getting into this week's sleepers I want to let you know that I've read the wrong read there before breaking down the main slate I want to let you know that fangal is giving you the opportunity to get in on the NFL action each week with the NFL Sunday million this week the prize pool is a whopping three million dollars with first place taking home a million dollars All you got to do is head over to handle.com click the NFL Sunday million contest fill out your lineup and go win some cash eligibility restrictions apply go to fangal.com or download the fangal app for more details If we're talking about the main slate as well did want to do a scheduling reminder for today We have our Thursday night football preview that be with myself and Olivia Moody live moods We're gonna break down Thursday at football. We'll be talking betting props. I'll be talking some single-game DFS as well That's at 4 p.m. On the fangal YouTube twitch Facebook and Twitter pages the MLB Q&A So 4 30 so leading right into lock basically which means I'll have like 5 to 10 15 minutes to fill out lineups Which should be fun. Either way, that's from 4 30 to 5 p.m. If you want to talk and they'll be swing by later on today for 30, but also come by 4 p.m For the breakdown of Thursday night football. We have our week 2 NFL DFS preview podcast going up later today as well It's at 10 a.m. On the fangal YouTube page and up on the number fired daily fantasy podcast feed after that So check it out make sure you subscribe to the family YouTube page and also subscribe to the number fired daily fantasy podcast All right, let's do this and talk about the main slate for today again It's four games with lockset for 505 this evening and there are some Potential rain chances. There is a slight chance of rain in Baltimore for the Yankees and the Orioles It should be fine But check back on that one later on similar thing in Philadelphia, which makes sense given the proximity I bet they play but there is least a chance that game is wet So check back on the weather for the Yankees game and for the Villiers game pitching preview for this main slate from braval des Is the highest salary pitcher on Fandal checking in at 10 1 we had Jordan Montgomery at $8,800 and Kyle hundred to 78 Nobody else above 7,000. Oh boy and looking at this let you can tell things are pretty dicey a pitcher I do think though that there is one guy who stands out as being very usable Someone you could consider on larger slates to and that's from braval des Not a big strikeout guy, which makes him tough to get to when it's a tougher slate but like he's a good pitcher and He's in a good matchup. So I think that Valdez is the one super process based guy we can like on this main slate I'll put Valdez thought my list he's facing the Rangers, which is a great matchup for a lefty Their ISO versus lefties is just one twenty two which means this is basically a team of David Fletcher's Which means they also don't strike out that much their strikeout rate is 21 percent and Valdez is not huge strike A huge strikeout guy either but he can get some he has a 23 percent strikeout rate in seven stars with more curveballs He has seven plus strikeouts and three of those seven games as well And that does include a seven strikeout game against Texas back on August 28th. So Closest in proximity but still far enough for we're not super worried about the familiarity here between Texas and Valdez So I think it's it's not enough to push me off, but it's the least worth noting I think that Valdez winds up being the top guy the night by default good pitcher from a bad at ball perspective great pitcher I'm a bad at ball perspective good matchup I think that Valdez a 10-1 is the one guy you can feel good about and as a result that I feel like it's a great Night for single entry, you know, just plop in a single entry line up But Valdez a pitcher try to deviate their stacks, but I do think he is kind of the one guy Who fits the overall process for tonight the second guy is by default? I I can't like there with the list is slim Nobody else is good pitch counts or projects for enough strikeouts. They're bullpen games. They're rough matchups There are guys who just don't pitch that well So by default we went up on Jordan Montgomery being the number two option He's facing the Orioles and that's not a team I like to target with lefties because I think the Orioles are pretty good They have a 108 WRC plus against lefties that got some power to it's actually the highest ISO on the slate The good thing is that Montgomery is well positioned to overcome that specifically He can lower an opposing team's power Because of his bad at ball suppression skills from Montgomery He had a trip on the injured list earlier on this month and his velocity has been down both before he went on The IL and since he came back that could be concerning and it's his marks and center Not great if we include the one star before the Velo is also down He has a 21% strikeout rate, but he's still getting the good bad at ball data He's letting up just a 32% hard hit rate with a 31% fly ball rate He did get six strikeouts twice in this time One of those was against Boston the pitch count should be worked up to see what 97 Two starts ago also against Baltimore and he can get some whiffs and that swinging strike rate The swinging strike of him against the Mets last star was 22.8% So Montgomery is kind of what he always was before we'd have whiffs and have good bad at ball data But didn't always convert those whiffs into strikeouts. I don't expect that to change I don't expect him to suddenly start converting whiffs into strikeouts because this has been a thing that's happened his entire career but I think that Even when we assume that the strikeout rate stays roughly around 21% I do still think he's the number two option for today. Nobody else really stands out So to me it really is all about Valdez like if a multi-entering I would just load up on him and then differentiate with your stacks for single entry I'd go Valdez not going Montgomery there But I think that if you do have to go a second pitcher like if you think the Valdez is bad shock Montgomery's a second option Just not one I feel great about personally as far as stacks go for this main slate It really revolves around the Yankees by a pretty wide margin I do think you can stack the Yankees with Valdez to Valdez is ten one He's not like he's 12 one so that definitely helps the Yankees are a team I prefer versus lefties because like some of their guys get boosts like Luke Voight and stuff like that But they're still fine here the face and Chris Ellis Ellis is up to five outings in the majors Which is a decent sample and he's letting up a 46% hard hit rates with a 48% fly ball ring That is a perfect recipe for home runs his strikeout rate is 20% Which means you know, it's not as low as we'd always like but it does mean lots of balls and play his eRA is 2.08 in the majors So that's been good. He has navigated his way around the hard contact around the lack of strikeouts and he's gotten good results That's good on Chris Ellis for doing that But in triple a is his eRA with 6.32 So I'm expecting regression to hit here pretty soon and it could well be tonight Versus this Yankee seem and the Yankees are the top stack here as a result as far as the Yankees go We've talked a lot about Joey Gallo recently Obviously, he's struggling quite a bit and it makes it tough to go there too often But if we're looking at Gallo the past month his strikeout rate versus righties is about 10 percentage points lower than it is against lefties I'm fine with him against lefties. I love the power. I'm like, I'm okay using guys who are Pretty likely to take a zero because I know that every picture or every batter can do that But I think that it does help that Gallo has a lower strikeout rate here versus right Especially as Ellis can get some strikeouts. He's still hitting the ball really hard We just need to make contact and I think that's a better bet versus a righty than a lefty So Gallo to me $3,100 very fair number and a guy I'm willing to go towards first night. It's a small slate We want guys who have a slate busting upside Gallo despite his issues still hitting home runs So he does have that for sure. So Joey Gallo to me a good play once again for tonight The second stack is one I wouldn't usually go towards because I'm always pretty scared of stacking against Kyle Hendricks because he's a good pitcher He's very smart and he can shut teams down. He just did that to San Francisco last week But both the results and the peripherals indicate the Phillies are in play for tonight Hendricks has not been using his curve balls past 11 starts has been way down as usage has been His skill interactive era in that time is 5.03. He has a 15% strikeout rate He is still suppressing our contact and we can often see guys outperform their peripherals when they do that because hard contact does matter a lot Hendricks hasn't done that though. His era is 5.84 He let up 600 runs to the Pirates two starts ago the Pirates He let up eight to the White Sox nine to the Brewers he's also really struggling with lefties this year the ground ball rate against them is just 36% and When we're looking to stack in the Phillies those are the guys we want to use so I do think we should stack the Phillies here versus Hendricks and see what happens and the same guys In this stack or the same guys we used last night or a couple nights ago We got Harper DD Brad Miller Odebel Herrera The great four-player stack to build around here because Herrera Miller and Gregorius are all low salary Which means you can get nuts of the Yankees stack and get to Rizzo Stanton judge etc etc So I do think that going the combo of Phillies Yankees taking advantage of the lower side guys in the Phillies To get to Harper to get to the Yankees. That's the way I want to play things straight up for tonight. So to me It really is three things, you know Valdez Yankees Phillies If you want to go elsewhere, I do think the Rays are fine against Tyler Alexander. He's gotten better recently That's why I'm not as high on that situation Could go at the Astros facing Glenn Otto as well But to me I do think that the That the Yankees and the Phillies are the top stacks for tonight all things considered that wraps up the main slate So if you're listening to this podcast after Believe it's after 202 feel free to move on to your life. I go, you know set those thurs in a football line whatever it may be because We you will already have the early only slate lock. Let's talk about the early only slate right now Just three games with lock set for 210 for today The pitchers on the early only slate are kevin gaussman at $10,600 Then alex cob right now the Lopez and paul blackburn are the others at seven thousand dollars or higher So it's gaussman massive massive massive gap And then the rest and I have my issue with gaussman He's also not in a great matchup for tonight But I think that he's the top guy on this early slate just because he's the one guy whose skill you can believe in Mose and that's the one thing here that gaussman does have his skill He trimmed his pitch mix down to basically be just a fastball and a splitter 13 starts ago And he's had some bumps in that time But overall the numbers are pretty good. He has a two point or a 3.59 skill interactive eray His strikeout rate is 29 And those are really good marks and he does need those tonight because he's facing the padres The padres don't strike out very much. They have just a 21 strikeout rate versus righties That's the downside The rest of it's fine. As you know, the powders and up and playing the best baseball recently They have a 100 wrc plus against righties with a 162 iso, which means they are less likely to kill you It's more so about the low strikeout number that does Make me not want to use pitchers who are facing them And it's it does help that again from a safety perspective this game is in san francisco Because it is a good part for pitching So I like gaussman a lot relative to the rest of the slate I would not say he is unfaithable, but he's good enough to feel solid about him. So Gaussman to me the number one option the number two on this slate I feel better about than the number two on the main slate So I talked about montgomery kind of using that out of obligation. I can actually see being okay with rinaldo lopez. He is Kind of here by default as well because we've got a bullpen game on this slate We've got cob coming out the il other guys are not super high strikeout pitchers So we wind up on lopez, but I don't think that's terrible His pitch count is fully up now lopez went 90 pitches last time out. So I would think he can go decently deep for tonight and he's facing the angels His strikeout rate against or the angel strike area against right is up to 25 percent They have a 101 wrc plus. So it's not a tough match up. They're striking out a lot recently, especially I think that is a good thing here for lopez and lopez. He's been fine in this longer roll He has seven adding since his pitch count increases or increased. He had a 4.36 skill interactive ERA in that time with a 22 strikeout rate He's letting up just a 37 hard hit rate and we can work with that for sure So lopez seems to be better than he was in his previous stinson rotation. He's also just $7400 So like if we were assigning Probabilities the different pitchers were would be the highest scores for tonight I would say gosman's probably around 55 percent or so just because like they're so few So little competition Lopez is probably about 35 percent So I'd say those two guys account for a grand majority Of the odds to be the highest scoring pitcher of the night I am more than okay with lopez and I feel better about him again than I do about montgomery on the main slate So to me it's gosman one lopez two and I probably will have exposure to both on this early only slate I think that there's enough in lopez to feel okay about that There are enough concerns around gosman and his matchup where I can feel okay having a little less of him So I do think this slate is a little bit better a pitcher than the main slate as far as the stacking goes on the On the early only slate the a's are facing daniel lynch and i've talked about lynch quite a bit recently I love that he is tinkering. I love that he is Changing some things up. I love that he's trying to improve I'm just not sure it's enough for me to jump off the a's Specifically lynch is throwing more sinkers and sliders over his past seven starts He's throwing fewer change ups and the sinkers in theory should improve his bad at ball data The problem is that sliders often negate that sliders I love because they're great for strikeouts But they also do tend to let up a bit more hard contact and something like a sinker would do And we're seeing some of that in the data for lynch He's letting up a 42 hard hit rate with a 43 fly ball right across the seven start sample That's good for home runs. So again, I love that he's tinkering. I love that he's trying to find the right combo He just hasn't found that right combo yet. He's let up two home runs and back to back games His overall year right this time is 4.37. So it's not terrible But I think that we should stack the a's here and take advantage of the bad at ball numbers Which are very good for the long ball here within the a stacks. I am very okay with whoever catches Don't really care. It can be uh, yon gomes. It can be shot murphy. Don't care gomes is a 271 iso against lefties He has great bad at ball data. Love that. Uh, shot murphy 164 iso so lower than gomes, but puts the ball in the air a ton So i'm good with either guy, honestly and I will use whoever winds up being the behind the dish for today as a Catcher slash first baseman on fan duel I think that both gomes and murphy very much viable and I will feel okay with either for today For the second stack. I'm actually starting staying in that same game and going at the royals I do think the giants are fine basing a bullpen game for the padres and I will use them too But I kind of like the royals. They're facing paul blackbird who is a low strikeout guy who lets up a lot of balls in play He is also letting up a 49 hard hit rate. All those things are awesome from a dfs perspective the one downside is that He does get some ground balls blackburn does in the five starts in the big leagues his fly ball rate allowed is 28 It was 22 triple a So that's annoying. Yeah, it's a lot lower than you want to be but I think that The royals put the ball in play and we can see what happens after that Plus the royals Have some stolen base guys on this team So they can generate good games even without home runs Blackburn let up four runs last time out against the rangers that is not a good team either So lesser teams can't get to him and that does make me feel better about using the royals here So the a's in the royals that game my favorite option for stacking for the early only slate The big sourced saver here on the royals if you're trying to get to gaussman is ryan o'hearn He is 2100 dollars. He's not great by any means But he puts the ball in the air a bunch he can hit home runs and that can make it easier to get to the higher sour guys He'll accept our parents if he plays other bar at the mon to see et cetera, et cetera So o'hearn and the a's the the value plays in the a's Should make this slate a bit easier to navigate. So I think you get to gaussman pretty easily But i'm also okay going down to lopez loading up on Mon to see getting pairs et cetera et cetera just basking in the studs on these two respective teams That is all that we have here for today on these solo shots Once again, if you didn't listen to the main slate one go back and check that out get set for that with locket 505 for tonight It's going to be a weird slate. So have some fun with it. Enjoy see what happens, but It'll be uh, it'll feel chaotic filling out lineups for sure as a quicker minor We are back here once again at 10 a.m. On the fandal youtube page Breaking down the week two nfl dfs main slate myself and brandy gedula We will have that up on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed after that find that by searching for Number fire daily fantasy podcasts wherever you get your podcasts apple podcasts spotify stitcher google podcasts, et cetera We are on all of those platforms If you've got more questions for me I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in forward today. Good luck to you on both the early only in the main slates We'll talk to you once again on friday to wrap things up. This has been the solo shot right here on the fan dual podcast network