 People are talking about, and using the word very, very loosely, is the word, the market is crashing. Guys, the market is not crashing. Okay. Let's do a little history lesson for all you guys. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessaTrader.com weekend update show. I hope everybody is doing well. Happy Presidents' Day weekend. We are all off today. The markets are closed, so hopefully you guys are having a great weekend, right? Very, very good weekend to kind of decompress, recharge the brain a little bit. Before we get started, there's a mall by me. It's called the Short Hills Mall. They have a lucid store. They just opened up a lucid store. Nothing to do with the stock, right? They have nothing to do with the stock, you know, again, just like everything else is kind of coming in. But I tell you one thing. This is the first time I've actually seen the car in person. Pretty damn cool. Really, really cool. Now that the showroom is open in New Jersey, you're probably going to see, especially all of us here around the New Jersey area, probably start seeing a lot of these lucids on the road. Very cool car. You know, it's pretty cool inside. Very nice, very nice features. So I don't know what the stock is going to do, but as far as the car, we're going to start seeing it around the road. Is it going to put a dent into Tesla? Man, maybe, right? Maybe, maybe people, maybe some people are going to try a different, different type of sexiness, right? Because it's a very, very sexy car. So just kind of a little side note. So you will start seeing a lot of these lucids around. We'll turn it to the next Tesla, probably, probably not. Who the hell knows, but very, very cool car. So let's talk about, let's definitely talk about the markets. Narrative, you know, hasn't changed. Market, new date, new week, same narrative. OK, you have Ukraine, Russian tension. You have a lot of downside action. You have a lot of uncertainty. But keep this in mind, this started a month and a half ago, right? Before the Russian tensions, before any headline that was driving the futures one way or another, that the market, especially the NASDAQ 100, broke down about a month and a half ago. This wasn't anything to do with Russian, Ukraine. And the one thing a lot of people are talking about and using the word very, very loosely is the word the market is crashing. Guys, the market is not crashing. OK, let's do a little quick history lesson for all you guys who started trading the last couple of years. This is what the monthly chart of the NASDAQ 100 is. This is far from crashing. This is a linear market for the last five years that closed out with Obama four years of Trump and now the first year of Joe Biden. This is not crashing. If this is a chart that looks like it's crashing, I would hate to actually see and actually show you, which I will in a second, what actually crashing is. This is what crashing looks like. OK, this is what crashing looks like. This is 2007, right? This is 2007. The market just went imploded. There was a major financial crisis. OK, there was an impending global Armageddon. People were losing the livelihood. They were losing their jobs. Stocks were going to zero. As far as I know, right? As far as I understand, there's none of that happening now. And that's the whole point. We've been on a five-year linear bull market. All this is a very orderly, despite the sum of the headlines. This is a very orderly back test just in a cell cycle mode. And that's exactly where we're in. We're in a cell cycle mode. Nothing has changed. As you can see here, there's much more red days than there are green days. And that's because, again, we continue to build under the 200-day moving average. Nothing has changed here. So yeah, of course, you'll find some days and maybe multiple days that you'll have very, very aggressive moves up, but then in a day, these stocks continue to get rejected into supply and continue to go lower. And once you add a little bit of spice, right? A little bit of sexiness, like an invasion of another country, yeah, things are going to get a little more exaggerated and things are going to escalate. But this is what we are right now. Technically, we're in a downside market with global macro geopolitical events. And the word crashing, it's like using the word hot. Everybody uses the word hot. This one is hot, that one is hot, that woman is hot. Again, Christy Brinkley in her prime, right? Giselle Bunchen in her prime, they're hot. The pretty girl that you see in the grocery store is just a pretty girl. And that's fine as well. So the market going lower is not the market crashing. It's just the market's going lower. And that's what it is, very, very orderly. And the most important part of what this market is and what this market isn't, there is no fear, right? There is no fear. Maybe if you bought stocks anywhere around here above supply, then yeah, you're going to be worried. But you can't use the word fear. This isn't 2007 where Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, and a whole bunch of reinsurance companies, insurance companies going out of business. This is just the market going lower after a technical signal below the 200-day moving average. So you can't exaggerate words that don't apply to this market. Does it suck that if you are long in a position three months ago that's really under what? Of course it sucks. That's called investing, right? But that's a completely different animal. It's a completely different channel than what we're doing. We're traders. We're trying to take advantage of price action tomorrow. Not what happened three months ago. Not what we're trying to predict because we're trying to convince everybody how smart we are. That's going to happen a month from now or two months from now. We're trying to take advantage of the data. And that's the whole point of this channel. We're trying to take advantage of the data every single day for the new day of what potentially could happen next. And based on all this information, based on all the headlines that we're seeing, and this is a very, very fluid situation, we continue to have a downward bias. Even though certain days you could have some pretty aggressive snapbacks, especially in the indexes. And those are fine. But until we reclaim the 200-day moving average, which we got rejected twice now in the last two, three weeks, we continue to be sell biased. Because that's where the majority of the stocks are playing out. And if you look at last week, you finally got the cracks in the big tech names in the Amazons. Amazon Macro, very, very important to understand. Tesla Macro, we'll get to the pivots in a second. The trade that I was looking for, if you guys remember on the Wednesday video, I was waiting for that Nvidia breakdown for Wednesday going into Thursday, which I didn't get. I got it Friday, right? So that's where we are right now. We're seeing a lot of names. And if you did your research over the weekend, you will see this ton of stocks breaking down from the macro point of view. Now, what do I mean by macro, especially if you're newer traders that are watching this channel? Like, look at a stock like Tesla, for example, right? Macro doesn't mean 52-week lows or 52-week highs. There's channels that are set that are at least a couple of weeks sold. And the longer the distribution in that channel, the higher probability that eventually gets above that channel, it's gonna start breaking down in that direction. That's exactly what we saw in Tesla and Amazon. In the video, I'll get to those in a second. So here is a channel that was going sideways for about several weeks. The top of this channel that got rejected twice was 947. The bottom of this channel that got defended twice was 880. It was giving us data, two weeks worth of data. So finally, when Tesla started breaking down below the 880 level, it gave an indication of a cell bias back to that direction. When you look at a channel, for example, like Amazon, right, and the same thing, you had a big, big channel here, one, two, three, four, five days worth of distribution, right? Just the distribution, again, two weeks, I would love to see two weeks, but a week, we can have, again, beggars can't be choosers. So you saw the same level continue to be defended all over and over again, 3090, 3092, 3094, 3090, right? So 3090 was the area, and once it started cracking this 3090 level, it gave a big cell signal, a name like in the video. Guys, remember Wednesday's video? I was salivating over that 236 level, 236, 236, 236, right? This is a channel that went back a week and a half, almost two weeks, and finally cracked on Friday to go to its next support zone. So that's kind of where the market is right now. We're getting really organic moves because there is no panic. If there was panic, you would just see gap, after gap, after gap, after gap, after gap, after gap, but there's not, and that's the whole point. That's why the market is not crashing. It's orderly giving you a cell signal that was giving about a month and a half ago, and all it's doing is playing out on that cell signal. Now, every single day, you're not gonna have that big red day of flushing 300 points on the Nasdaq, 500 points on the Nasdaq, 200 points on the Nasdaq, but the overall theme is the cell signal. So if you look at Friday's day, and that's the first thing we talked about, we had a gap up on Friday, and based on the market conditions, and this is kind of what we talk about every single day, understanding where we are, I kept on reiterating the point was, I would rather miss a thousand point gap, I'd rather miss a thousand point move in the market as long as we're still below the 200 day moving average, then buy a gap up into supply, into 60 minute supply, it gets stuffed and have the market roll over, and that's exactly what happened on Friday, that continues to happen, okay? Every single headline that's bullish in the market, it's not a gap and go, these stocks are just gapping back into the areas where they got destroyed, well, I don't use the word destroyer, they're gapping back into areas that they started breaking down, right? That's called 60 minute supply. So when we saw that sell-off, right? Really, really good sell-off on Thursday going into Friday, I was a thousand percent sell-by, it's like, how can you not be? And then we got that headline overnight that somebody, some dude that's serving coffee in Russia is going to meet with some dude that's picking up coffee from the United States for a possible sit-down next week, and the market gap, the futures gapped up like a hundred and something points, I was like, wow, this is an absolute gift from the market gods, and basically that's the first thing I talked about, I go, this gap up is either we're gonna get everything coming back down to the downside or we're gonna sit all day because there's no way in hell I'm buying stocks in a sell-bias environment that's below the 200-day moving average, that's the discipline, right? Isn't that the discipline we talk about? You know, the market doing everything possible to trying to detach you from your money, but it's us, there's nothing to do about the market, the market's the market, the market's gonna be open, the market's always gonna have stocks move, it's gonna go up and down, it's all about our discipline to see if we get baited into it, right? Are we gonna be foolish enough to completely abandon our game plan and say, oh wow, the futures are up, let's buy stocks, the market must be going higher because that's the bottom, it's not the bottom, the bottom is when we're back above the 200-day moving average and you turn around to one of your buddies and say, remember that day three weeks ago when we violently bottomed out? Yeah, that's called hindsight, and again, until that happens, until we have a scenario, throw the baby out with a bathwater, that the Dow is down 3-4,000%, 3-4,000 points and the Nasdaq's down 1,000, then maybe you could start using the word, the market has crashed, but until then, guys, it's very orderly, there is no fear, if you're an investor and you're in positions above supply, then yeah, everything is gonna feel like the end of the world to you because the market's going against you, but at the end of the day, let's call it what it is. Again, not every woman could be hot, not every man could be hot, not every market going down is a crash. A crash is a crash. This is just orderly sell signal. So let's talk about the tape. Again, Friday, we were completely sell buys going into the tape. AMD 1175, if it builds below, can flush. I give it to AMD, it didn't crash, okay? It didn't crash, it came below the 1175 area, went down to like 109 and change and kind of reverse course, pretty good. Pretty good, we'll see what happens there, but I think again, below 109, if the market starts getting violent back down, you could see moves back to 102. Roadblocks got absolutely destroyed. They had earnings a couple of days ago. They bombed out on earnings. The next day was kind of like the DebtCat bounce, but we talked about that 53 level, that 53 earnings level was gonna be a line in the sand and 53 held twice. If it builds below, can start its next leg down. Roadblocks got destroyed and continues to get hit. So here's the 53, it held twice. It went all the way down to $48. They were coming for the 45 weeklies this week, the 40 weeklies this week. So this thing looks like lower prices in its future. Coinbase, again, you see crypto names, again, reversing cores down. 188, if it builds below, can flush. Here's Coinbase, right? So here's Coinbase, it took out to 88, went down to 80, nice little recovery on Coinbase, but nice move, I mean, you had an eight point move down on Coinbase, FSLY, another scenario of an earnings play, 19 yesterday's low, if it builds below, can flush. Not a big move, because again, the stock had to hit for like 27%, but the point is it's still going lower. It took out to 19, traded out to like 1850s. It still looks lower, probably have another two, three week kind of slide there as well. And here comes the beta names, right? Here's the bread and butter. NVIDIA 241, if it builds below, can flush. Then macro on deck, the macro was good, but NVIDIA was just a really, really big mover there. So here's the 241, that was the previous days low. It took out 241, and then it got to macro. 236 was a huge, huge level I was waiting for for weeks and finally broke down. When right to the linear regression line of 231, if it confirms 231, I think there's a shot against the 217, really, really big move there as well. Amazon got destroyed, 3090, huge level, right? Hell twice if it builds below, flush. Here's Amazon, right? Here's Amazon, it took out the 3090, went right to the next support at roughly 3020s. This thing starts losing 3020 guys. Look how much room we have. Okay, I think there's a lot of room in Amazon. So this 3020s level, 3017 levels going into this week is gonna be a big, big level. Any close on Amazon below 3017, man. Look how much room we have, right? You got 300 points of downside. This could be really, really big. Again, we'll get to that if the case plays itself out. Tesla, absolute monster this week. On Thursday, 893, huge support. If it builds below, can see last week's lows. That was the 850 level, right? And I said, man, if this Tesla could put in a new low below 871 could flush to 860. Not only did it flush to 860, it flushed to last week's lows that we talked about. Here's the 893 macro, took out the 871, took out the 850s and traded all the way down to 837. Again, I think this thing probably needs to go sideways for a couple of days. But if this thing starts taking down the 200 day moving average, you're gonna see that 72 lows coming very, very quickly. Shack held 63 times, never got there. It actually rallied right off the open. Crowd source 169, 168. If it builds below, can flush. Here was crowd source, right? Took out the 169, traded all the way down to 164, closed pretty much the lows of the day. I still like this thing lower. There's a shot against the 156, 157. Amazon 3062 on deck. Roblox is getting hit, went all the way down to 48. Crowd 166 on deck. Coin 185 on deck, went to 180. NVIDIA went to 239 on deck, went to 231. Here comes 236. The monster support now, if it confirms, can see. And that's the whole point, went down to 231. Yeah, I mean, not too shabby, right? Not too shabby. And that's, oh, FSLY, new lows. And that's it. So, moral of the story is, look, I think the most important part you can do in this type of scenario is, if you're a long biased trader, you're gonna have a very, very tough time because, again, we are underneath supply. It's not being, you know, it's not being a bad guy who's saying it's just this kind of reality. If you look at every index, you're probably gonna see the same thing. We focus on the cues because that's where kind of the majority of the action takes place. If you're an investor, again, I'm not the best person to give you advice. The one thing I can tell you is, don't let your portfolio bleed, right? If we're underneath the 200-day moving average, short some cues against your portfolio, short some spies. Do something proactive that's not gonna let your portfolio bleed. There's no reason to be a victim. There's no reason to stay up at night and start crying yourself to sleep in a fetal position. If you do have a portfolio when you're below the 200-day moving average, there's a couple of things you could do. You could do absolutely nothing or you could do something, right? Do something, be proactive. Take some exposure off the table on your hand. Short some cues, short some spies, short some diamonds. Do something that at least is going to alleviate some of the pain, some of the tortures. And once the indexes get above back the 200-day moving average, that's when you can take off your hedges and let your stocks kind of appreciate organically. But until that happens, we don't know how long this is gonna last. I've seen bare scenarios for two, three years. We're talking about month two, okay? If you can't handle two months, you sure as hell not gonna be able to handle two years. For all you guys who do actively trade the markets, it's a pretty good market, right? Again, everybody loves a good bull market. I think everybody feels better. Everybody's happier. But the point is the market is very tradable on both sides of the market. As long as you respect technical analysis, there's nothing to do with I think or there's nothing to do with you think price action is always going to win. You guys have a great day. Have an awesome weekend. God bless and I will see you all tomorrow. Take care.