 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Just one more day left in the MLB all-star airbreak, which means that baseball is back tomorrow Pitching ninja Rob Friedman is back tomorrow as well as we'll break down a full slate of baseball here on the show Once again for tomorrow for today we're taking the excuse with the lack of other sports going on to talk about some NASCAR the cup series and the Accident series both in New Hampshire for this weekend I'm gonna break down both those races outline where I'm seeing value right now over at Fandall Sportsbook and I'd hopefully set you on the right path towards Having a fun weekend in the Granite State. Welcome on into covering the spread That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and Number fire calm. My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire Here to take a look at this weekend's NASCAR action both for the cup and Accident series up in New Hampshire This weekend before we dive in though quick reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast As mentioned baseball is back tomorrow women's World Cup coming up. I believe next week. So we're talking to Ed Fang He gets back from vacation Sometime next week's we'll talk to Ed before action kicks off He's gonna be running some women's World Cup models pumped talk about Ted about that get him back here on the show Of course the open championship next week as well We'll talk to Brandy and do a lot about that. It is going to be a loaded week here on covering the spread next week So make sure you're subscribed wherever you get your podcasts And if you like what you hear leave us a five-star rating on Apple podcasts or Spotify as well Also, do not forget these shows do go up over on the Fandall YouTube page and on Fandall TV plus Take your first swing at betting MLB on Fandall and get 10 times your first bet amount in bonus bets up to $200 that's right. Just bet 20 bucks and you'll land $200 in bonus bets win or lose That's 200 you can spend on everything from the money line to over under to who you think is going to hit the first home run all in An app that is safe secure and super easy to use Plus when you win you could pay it instantly There is no better place to bet on MLB than Fandall America's number one sportsbook So sign up today get up to $200 in bonus bets Fandall official partner of major league baseball must be 21 plus and president Select states first online a real money wager only $10 first deposit required Bonus issued is non with trouble bonus bets that expire 14 days after receipt Restrictions apply C terms at sportsbook.fandall.com Fandall is offering online sports waging in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC gambling problem call 1-800 gambler or visit fandall.com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee, and Virginia call 1-800 next step or text next step to 53342 in Arizona 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat Connecticut 1-800-9 with it in Indiana 1-800-522-4700 or visit ksgalliehealth.com in Kansas 1-877-770 stop in Louisiana Visit mdgamblinghealth.org in Maryland visit 1-800 gambler.net in West Virginia call 1-800-522-4700 in Wyoming in Massachusetts hope is here visit gambling helpline ma.org or call 800-327-5050 or 24-7 support and in New York 1-877-70 hope and wire text hope and why Let's dig in now to the cup series and Xfinity series this weekend in New Hampshire the cup series the cram 301 crayon 301 either way it is up in New Hampshire for this weekend And New Hampshire is a shorter track about a mile in length a tiny bit longer, and it's very flat Which means for the cup series? They're using a different rules package than what we've had recently had road courses which do use the same package But obviously those are road courses We have not actually seen an oval race use the package they will use this weekend since martinsville, which was 10 races ago So current form always matters current form is always significant But we do want to be a bit skeptical of recent games With this in mind given that this is a literally different package than what they've been running here recently And it does result in some value in my eyes Fading some guys who have been super super hot recently and focusing on the drivers who are really good on relevant tracks earlier on this year And this does lead does lead to some value in my eyes The best bet for me in the cup series is not actually on a driver to win It's a manufacturer and then the manufacturer is chevrolet Which is plus 170 to win this race over at vandal sports both towed at the favorite of plus 130 And I get that martin truex juniors looked great recently Christopher bell drives a toyota he won here last year But most of toyota's recent runs have been in different circumstances road courses That on some super speedways and stuff like that The lone toyota win in this rules package this year on a non-road course Was the bristle dirt race and that was a dirt race and Christopher bell won that one William Byron won phoenix in a Chevy Kyle larson when richman in a Chevy and larson won martinsville as well so Because my model puts more weight on those races than it does on Kansas and stuff like that It's pretty high in the chevrolet's so the implied odds here at 37 percent. I've got chevy pretty well above that So if you were forcing me to make just one bet for this weekend in the nascar cup series I would take chevrolet to win Plus 170 right now in fan dual sports book With that said, I do like two chevrolet's individually as well Those two chevrolet's are william byron at 11 to 1 and ross chastain at 18 to 1 Let's start things off here with Byron As mentioned, he did win venix and that is the closest comp to this track We also saw Byron have a third place average running position in richman's and So that means that what he's done this year on relevant tracks has been very good And that's what I care most about now Byron's history at new hampshire and the cup series is not good He actually has zero top tens here across his entire career But they run here just once per year. So a pretty small sample Hendrick cars The past couple years their forte has not been the short flat tracks But again, it has been so far this year We also did see Byron run well here in other series. He won in the truck series He also won at isla, which is another short flat track in the truck series and in the extended series So I think it's clear when you dig back far enough and when you look at what he's done this year That Byron can run well on the short flat tracks and you combine that with his fantastic form and He probably shouldn't be 11 to 1 For me, I actually have Byron and larson as a two favorites to win this race Byron is 11 to 1 larson is 8 to 1 I'm okay taking the discount there and I will ride with Byron. So william Byron If I'm talking an individual driver is my favorite bet to win in new hampshire for this week As far as chastain as mentioned, he is 18 to 1 Short flat tracks have also never been his biggest strength But he had a really good run here back in 2021 and the reason that's key is because that was when He was still a chip ganassi racing Chastain's big breakout occurred once they switched to track house in 2022 So to see him run well in new hampshire in 2021 before that time timmy is pretty noteworthy We saw chastain finish eighth in that race. He also was eighth last year And if you look at chastain this year on short flat tracks at richmond Typically a pretty bad track for him. He had the best run. He has had his entire career there as well Also was not bad in phoenix. We saw him run well in phoenix last year too in the championship race Of course chastain won nashville. It's a very different track and a different package But it is a flat track. So some of the skills there can translate to here as well I think that chastain's form is too good for his odds to be 18 to 1 I had chastain's odds to win at 6.9 percent. His implied odds are 5.3 percent. So I'm going to take that. So for wind bets this week in new hampshire for the cuff series I like cheviah plus 170 firing at 11 to 1 and chastain at 18 to 1 That does give me flexibility to add one more Shorter outright post practice if I would like to I'd hope that I could just ride a firing and chastain if you're good about those Hopefully they shorten I can just kind of ride with those as the outrides for this weekend But if I need to add one more outright on saturday, I think I can do so As far as the non-wind bets, I do show value on both firing and chastain top 10 Firing is minus 185 on fan dual chastain minus 135. You can get much better numbers elsewhere. So Shop around. I did take firing and chastain top 10 at other sites where their odds were shorter Where their odds are better. So I'm willing to take those bets if they're available to you at better numbers than what fandal has I do want to take mandals to their values for me as well The biggest top 10 value for me is alex bowman He's plus 175. I've met 45 percent for a top 10 and his implied odds are 36 percent now bowman has struggled It's pretty mightily since coming back from his back injury He has not finished better than 12 across those six races But going back to last week in atlanta, he was very fast I had a great run there But got caught up in a wreck towards the end and did not finish well But he was running very well during that race and had a very good car And bowman has been running better than his results since he came back from the back injury Just generally hasn't finished well to reflect Okay speed the speed has been great. It's been okay. This typically has been a decent track for bowman not great, but hendrik Hasn't always been great on this track type and they were Awesome on this track type earlier on this year bowman wasn't as good as byron and larson But did finish well. He was ninth in phoenix eighth enrichment 11th in martinsville So two top tens and three races there and an 11th in the other And I think there's enough here for bowman for me to feel good about him at plus 175 He's definitely in a funk right now and I understand why his odds are plus 175 But to me, I think it's a bit undervalued there. So I will take bowman plus 175 Again, I'm leaning pretty heavily on chevys here, which could go bad for me But based on the form we saw earlier on this year in this package I do feel okay about that The final bet allows me to avoid toyota's dominance just because it's a match up between a couple of toyotas That is martin truex jr. Taking on christopher bell truex is plus 116 to beat bell And I like him a lot at that number as I mentioned bell did win here last year and he Was fantastic on this track specifically, but also this track type in the by he is So high in the pecking order as far as potentially winning this race But it's not as if truex has been bad at this track and his form is better than bell's is right now truex last year Let 172 laps in this race now to third place ever trying position. He was awesome in this race last year so His form right now Phenomenal and I think that when you add those two things together at worst This should be a toss-up where it's 50 50 heading into practice and qualifying to see Who will be the favor between these two guys? My model actually does like truex a bit more. So he's plus 116 I'm okay taking that in riding with truex in this market So for the cup series, I like chevy to win a plus 170 William Byron to win at 11 to 1 ross chastain to win 18 to 1 Alex bowman top 10 at plus 175 and martin truex jr. To be christor bell at plus 116 Over on the Xfinity series side of things I'm not quite as high on john hunter nema check as the market is he is plus 260 to win And I can't quite get there and by quite. I mean, I can't get anywhere close to that I understand why he's there But the fact that I am lower on him the market does open up quite a bit of value elsewhere But let's talk about nema check quick talk about why he is plus 260 Nearly one richman finished second there even after Getting pinned to lap down because of some very weird tire strategy got pinned to lap down came back nearly one He actually did win martinsville and he was fantastic on the short flat tracks in the truck series And joe gibbs racing his team has been the team to beat on the short flat tracks so far this year I just think plus 260 is too rich and it opens up a lot of value elsewhere So I show value on a couple of other drivers towards the top The one I like the most of that group is going to be nema check's teammate sammy smith who is plus 750 That is 11.8 implied odds. I had smith at 15.1 to win smith Also had the same strategy as nema check at richman got pinned to lap down But because nema check got the free pass and smith did not he got pinned to lap down longer and never made up that ground But smith won phoenix He was second behind nema check in martinsville And this makes sense because sammy smith his background is in short tracks He came up via the cars tour, which is a late model car on short tracks He was great in arca especially on the short tracks So I do not think that smith's implied odds Should be 16 percentage points lower than those of his teammate So smith at plus 750 my favorite bet to win for this week in the extended series You could get plus a 50 I believe earlier on this week that is no longer available Plus 750 likely the best number you can get on sammy smith right now I also value in the other smith. That's chanler smith. Uh, he is uh for top five He's 45 for me for top five. You can get him a plus 150 Which is 40 so five percentage point gap between me and the market He did win richman this year as mentioned. He was fifth in phoenix and He also ran well on the short flat tracks in the truck series last year two so I buy what the model is selling here and think the same is that chanler smith is also a good value To finish inside the top five his teammate austin dillon is a bit under value to win as well He is 12 to 1 if annual sports book. I show a bit of value there Bit of value on col custer as well. He is plus 650 so I could get to those two but to me Favorite bets are sammy smith plus 750 to win and chanler smith plus 150 for a top five That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread But as mentioned baseball is back once again tomorrow talking strikeout props I'll talk some money lines while pitching ninja here to break down his favorite bets uh over at fandall sports book For tomorrow's opener for the second half to get that in all of our shows as they go live Make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts Do not forget check us out over on the fandall youtube page as well and download the fandall tv plus app on your amazon fire tv apple tv or roku device as well If you've got any questions for me. I am on twitter at gymsonus j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fandall podcast network at fandall podcast Want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you if whatever you're betting whether it be The jenesis scottish open any other golf whatever it may be for today We'll talk to you once again tomorrow. This has been covering the spread right here on the fandall podcast network