 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We have got a jam-packed show for you here today on covering the spread not one not two But three different sports all being discussed to get you set for Thursday night and this weekend We're gonna have Austin Swam on to break down some NBA and USC Vegas 68 this weekend a unique card in terms of when it is going off But we'll still talk about it get Austin's thoughts on this USC process Then I'll close up shop by breaking down the NASCAR clash at the Coliseum and where I'm seeing value over at Fandall Sports Book This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Number fire comm my name is Jim Sonness. I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire comm Joined here as mentioned by Austin Swam check him out on Twitter day swing three you can find his work over at number fire comm doing NHL NBA UFC doesn't ask our DFS stuff to Austin is all over the map We had him on top college football and NFL back in the fall as well So Austin welcome back to covering the spread. How you doing today? I'm doing great Jim. Thanks for having me on and yeah We got a little a smorgasbord of things to talk about today I want a little random sports to fill our time with none of them being the pro football flag Football game today. They're coming this weekend with the Pro Bowl game. Yeah, you know Nothing I I'm still running simulations. I I'm reaching out to our colleague Brandon Gadoula see what we can do on the football Sims front I'm gonna use that as my excuse as well. If I if it's do you mind if I steal that from you Can I just like use it as my excuse to not bet it? Okay, cool. Go ahead. Go ahead We'll fully take that then we'll talk about some things we can actually figure out By talking to the NBA and some UFC throughout the podcast for today If you want to skip ahead to the USC section of that or NBA jump around the time stamps to this will be in the episode description Over on number fire calm. We'll dive into that here in just a second But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We of course are enough podcast Spotify stitcher Google podcast. You name it. 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So Which markets are you typically focused on in the NBA and what is your process embedding those markets? Well, you know most of the coverage I do over at number fire.com for NBA has to do with daily Fantasy and that translates really well over to prop markets If I decide to bet on certain prop if I just see that the numbers just grossly inadequate to what it's supposed to be I'll focus on combos typically like I look at a lot of matchup based daily fantasy stuff So if I see points and rebound combos For a big that's in a particular matchup that is undervalued Or I see points and assists for a point guard friendly matchup And I look compared to what our projections say we're at number five because they they are tremendous projections And I and I'll hit prop markets occasionally, but once football season's over we can call kind of breathe a little bit I love to bet NBA spreads. That's my favorite way to to bet the NBA, you know, particularly I try to take underdogs at home Is my general default as to what I'm looking for but really what I'm doing is I'm looking at net ratings And comparing current floor situations because the injury landscape for NBA is so fluid That I'm I'm really just trying to and a lot of times I'll try to leap out In the early in the day kind of like now around 9 a.m. Eastern where you can get tremendous closing line value in NBA If you are willing to put yourself out there for potential injury situations And we'll talk with a couple of the games tonight what I what I was looking for And what I think might happen with injury news later this afternoon There are so many injuries and some of the consequences of them like maybe this guy's not that valuable to their four condition Or oh, yeah, this guy's extremely valuable Um, it can be very surprising sometimes. So that's typically my approach when I'm looking to bet NBA spreads When you're talking about trying to make educated guests on injuries Yeah, what are you using to base that on because obviously You know, you're not saying like, okay. I think this guy might sit if you think that there is a 70% chance that he plays What information are you using to kind of decide? Whether you think a player is realistically going to get a sit or not You know, honestly, and that's kind of why I like the timing of football season is coaches will begin to show their behaviors and Tendency you can look up specific trends for certain players on back-to-backs There are certain players that have management programs where you know, they're probably not going to play Two consecutive games and a lot of times teams will Make the more winnable game of the back-to-back set the one that they'll go all out in and then maybe in a lopsided blowout Which is exactly a game we'll talk about They might empty the bench and it can get ugly really fast with like double-digit line movement in some cases From what it opened to to what it might close that I think we might have double-digit movement on the game I'm going to talk about later. So it really you see coaches tendencies over seasons and that's what it takes is You have to you have to kind of understand each individual situation Which teams are resting with which players regularly and then I use that information to make an educated guess So let's dive into a couple of nationally televised games tonight We have the grizzlies and calves on tnt followed by the clippers and the bucks anything you like in those games The people on action is there are sitting back and watching those games tonight Yeah, first of all my condolences to the city of milwaukee the mba tv executives put them at 9 p.m Local for a tip tonight. Um, that's my time out here in denver. So oops But I will start with the earlier tip out in cleveland. I I kind of feel like it is in the wall That game will get done at like 11 30 Yeah, it's a thursday They've done that to the buck before. Um, it just because I maybe they run out of a west coast game on whatever swings going on The LA teams on a road trip Like what like, okay, like I I think about this from a baseball perspective because like I come like I live on the east coast. I get annoyed when people like Mukibets shohio tani all go to the west coast. I can't watch them. I'm old I can't stay up that late. Like I can watch them in the morning, but like Like having a game started at 9 local is bizarre Yeah Sorry, I can't really sidetrack that entire thing. My bad. No, you're right. I it caught me off guard too I thought it was in los angeles because it was the clippers, but no it's milwaukee But uh, it will talk we'll start with the cleveland guy because that's the earlier tip And I think it's kind of a opposite situation where I was just talking about I feel like there's been an overreaction with this line to the rest factor So I like the grizzlies plus six in the memphis cleveland clash and cleveland is darn good That's not the reason why they're at full health and they're on rest here And with their core four of dairies garland donovan mitchell jared allen and evan mogul on the four Plus 5.1 net rating. So that's very good But the concern for odds makers here is that ja marant and desmond bayne are probably at risk of getting rested on the back to back Marant marant has rested back to backs for his ankle before and desmond bayne just came back From a knee issue and the wild part to me though is without Ja marant and desmond bayne pretty clearly the two best offensive players on the floor They still have a plus 5.1 net rating which is exactly what cleveland says And we saw it last year when they won a playoff game without ja marant in this is a team that has very replaceable parts They just got back dany green from injury and the interesting thing about a back-to-back here guys like tyus jones They didn't play very much. So if they rest ja marant the effect of the back-to-back as far as those tired legs Is not a substantial. So i really like the grizzlies with the points Even though it's a back-to-back situation in that one Would you want to hold off on that one because if you're if your assumption going in is that bayne and marant It's not a huge deal They wound up sitting would you want to wait until potentially they get ruled out and see Maybe because i think that bayne probably will sit based on the fact he missed two games came back last night Didn't do a whole lot for my dfs lineup I wouldn't be shocked if he won sitting on the second half Would you hold off and see if you can get a better number later or is this one you'd want to bet now? I think i would bet this one now just because i'm afraid if news gets out that marant plays is going to play Desmond is not the one driving the number. It's much more. So ja and it's really it's a sporadic trend I talked about looking at coaching tendencies. It's not every back-to-back for ja So I sit here pretty much 50 50 as far as a forecast of if he's going to play or not And I would fire at this number because it'll probably drop to like three or four points if if ja ends up getting confirmed playing Okay, so the other one is clippers and bucks. You're clippers guys. So give me the read out. What's the read on this one? Yeah, I yeah, and i'm excited to talk about this The clippers have not been playing well this season at all times But i'm excited that i get to come on and talk about them when they are playing well And I I do have an mba finals ticket on these guys and I am a supporter But it's really not rocket science They made the play in last year with kawaii Leonard out all year and paul george out most of the year Now that they're back I think they are one of the best teams in the mba and at worst their deep contender You look at their net rating with george and Leonard on the floor, but marcus morris off and morris One of those veterans coaches can lean on but kind of a ball stopper not great defense When he's off and those two are on they have an absurd plus 16.4 net rating And that's in a sample size of at least 300 minutes So it's it's a very encouraging sample size if you're a clippers fan like me and on the other side I'm just kind of waiting for milwaukee to kick it into gear They really haven't found their stride even though their big three is back chris middleton still playing limited off the bench weirdly with those three on the floor together They have a negative 1.16 net rating. Isn't that kind of odd that with those guys back? It's really predicated 124.3 defensive rating and I think they will lock in come play off time Absolutely drew holiday honest. This is a team that I can't see being a net negative defensively forever But tonight is not the playoffs and at an odd tip. It's actually much more so west coast time as we talked about I like the clippers money line plus 144. I I see this game is closer to a pick-up So if I can get that much juice with the clippers on equal rest, I think it's a great great Bet to make in that one. It's my favorite of the two Okay, so we're liking the clippers on the money line They can get that at plus 154 right now over at fangirl sports book And you also have the grizzlies plus six for the two national tv games any other thursday nba bets you like for tonight, austin So so there is one more to me. That's kind of a great illustration of what we were talking about earlier I I I think the nuggets are a little bit overvalued when we come playoff time I see their futures market. They are very very highly up there for a team that that's kind of come out of nowhere a little bit But I we've seen on the injury front the golden state warriors tend to empty the shelf as I talked about empty the bench on back to backs I would not be shocked if at least three of steve curry clay thompson draymond green andrew wiggins Rest for some reason and tonight is about as bad as the conditions get in the altitude back to back veteran team You know over the last year. Yeah last year last night. Yeah Oh, that's right. Yeah, so you had overtime the last getting worked by the minnesota timberwals, man, you know, noz read It's actually playing attention to the nba now. I could actually I actually know who's playing for who now It's great. I feel so informed. It's a radical deviation for me Jim not noz read might be the best center in minnesota But um when you look at when you look at how golden state had to fight for that one last night They come in you think you take all four of those guys off the four you can probably guess It's pretty ugly. It is ugly negative nine point nine net rating when those guys are off the floor And if you want to simplify it down to this if you're concerned going against a good team negative five point nine net rating without Just steve and steve is a catalyst. He does a lot for the warriors He's pretty much their entire offensive set at this point The the the nuggets have a perfect regular season style to obliterate a team like this They're very deep. They have a lot of different scoring options They have a plus 16.8 net rating with their starters on the four this year They have been exceptional especially at home I'll be on the exact opposite side of the fence because I imagine the nuggets will be the favorite If these guys met in the playoffs just like they were last year while the golden state warriors won that series in five But tonight in the regular season, I think golden state empties the bench And I would take the nuggets minus 11 and a half right now because it was minus nine and a half Last night at vandalsports book. That's what I got it at And uh at 11 and a half now if golden state officially rules out those starters It could climb as high as 13 14 points And you have to assume part of that is Bookmakers are already baking in some guys sitting for the warriors ones. You can confirmation That's going to potentially move it anymore. So 11 and a half the number Right now at vandalsports book for the nuggets and the warriors anything else saw an nba for you tonight, austin Um, I those are just the three that stood out to me so far I I haven't done a full deep dive here early in the morning on the west coast Well, then let's dive in and talk some ufc and break down that because I think, you know, I know nothing about ufc. I know I know less about ufc than nba, which is saying a lot So i'm gonna lean on you for this entirely. Um, but I want to ask you about your process because again I don't want to be going into this not knowing anything about what i'm doing before I put actual money on the line So what steps are you going through to analyze a fight before you place a bet? So for my dfs podcast For ufc dfs, which is available by the way on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed good stuff there if you want to subscribe What a plug to that guy. Um, but I I gather all cumulative stats for the fighters going to compete this weekend They're publicly available on ufc stats.com. It is very much in its Infancy as far as stat keeping is concerned. There aren't a lot of held metrics, but I'll be quite honest with you I've been working for a simulation environment kind of like what you have with nascar here But dealing in these one year year and a half samples that I have so far It's kind of tough. There's just not a logistical regression or correlation to particular stats Resulting in win when outcomes guys and gals can win averaging a lot of strikes not very many defending well not defending well There are a lot of variables that are hard to put a statistical quantity on in ufc cardiovascular endurance You can measure a guy's pace, but I can't measure where he's going to run out of energy because fight to fight That can change based on their weight cut and then level of competition very hard to to account for in ufc There are actually fights that are booked by the promotion that the promotion definitely wants one guy to win It is not rigged, but they give them a favorable matchup for a good reason Maybe they've had a tougher than run of schedule than they thought they were going to but There is one thing that I can use that really helps me when I go to sit down to make a bet It is my I I published it last year on number five dot com It's called striking success rate and if some people refer to his significant striking differential permitted But I said we simplify it because this is the most important metric in ufc because it's just very basic striking damage out minus striking damage in and you'll see that the champions the guys that are successful In the sport it correlates to those guys usually have a very high striking success rate And the thing I like it translates among strikers It translates among wrestlers because they're not getting it as much So they're striking success rate even though they're not landing very many significant strikes is very large So if you tail my picks or suggestions regularly, you'll see a lot of times I'll take an underdog or an even money fight where there's a significant gap in striking success rate Or I can also look at other individual matchups like fighter ace takedown defense is for this guy's a good wrestler It's probably not going to go well But I do have a hard cap where I won't go above minus 250 money line in ufc because limbs regularly break in the sport And that's about the worst type of beat you can get in sports That's why I don't watch it Can't do it. I can't do it man. I'm good In that regard now For you, is it more so the data that will dictate where you go? Or is it the Meshing of styles that is the bigger factor for you It's honestly The way that i'm trying to get this automated is I the data will dictate it But I have to adjust the data based on level of competition because it is so much more Valuable to me to have a guy that has fine data in a long historic sample Then great data in a tiny sample because it just isn't going to last very long And sample is the largest issue in ufc. Some of these guys fight once a year, right? And some of the fights last 30 seconds So I don't get a very good read on who they are and what they do in that short period of time Win or loss so It definitely it definitely is a challenging thing that I try to mend But yes, it's I start with a statistical baseline and then if maybe if level competitions even I will just go with it or I have to adjust So that's talking about like betting a money line on a fight Which is just you know deciding who will win But with the ufc, especially as we get later in the week you get a lot of markets You got how the fight will end you can fight method of victory You will fight you can you can do a lot of stuff What is your preferred market the market? We've had the most success in betting usc So for my for my betting guide that I publish over on number fire My signature bet every week is I do a two leg parlay of moderate favorites And it comes down to around even money because I think that is the most in the area of the market that is squishiest where Odds makers are afraid to take a guide Maybe that has a moderate sample and make it a larger favorite than he should be because there's just that element of the unknown But you look at their data you can see the future champions and contenders of this sport coming from a mile away Based on their striking defense based on their takedown defense based on their striking success rate So I typically look at favorites that are undervalued there last year my two legged I call my two legged went 24 and 11 this year I'm going to track units and of course because I'm tracking units I've lost both parlays that I've had on the two carts this year So that's negative whatever you put in uh for the math people at home But then in addition to one or two straight bets I will do a dart throw of the week Which is in the prop betting market A certain fighter may be undervalued to finish a fight in an exact way because their data can tell you Their style is and well this guy's not very aggressive as a striker He's not very talented, but he is an efficient wrestler He offers submissions or he doesn't offer submissions Which might lead me to a decision based prop because they're not actively trying to finish the fight on the ground So I will look in an exact finishing prop for my dart throw of the week. I spend a little bit of time in there Um, it but the the those are the three markets typically I stick to which is I'll throw a dart I'll have my two leg parlay and then I'll throw a few straight bets I really do not like one of the more popular ways people bet usc, which is round betting I think the first time that I oh like over one and a half rounds Because then you get to the seven and a half minute mark in the fight And I think I lost my first ever round bet by like four seconds And I said well, this is this isn't fair. They're after going to just stop the fight for me in time But um, I typically stick to those three Okay, so That's what we're operating here. That's the the markets you feel best about and luckily for us We got all these markets up for usc vegas 68. This is this weekend Begins like saturday late night and goes into sunday morning So if you are an insomniac or you're bored or just hanging out on or living in the west coast, I guess You'll have something on tv to watch for this weekend. We've had these odds of for a bit If I had to a sportsbook for usc vegas 68 any bets you see is being good values for that event Yeah, so this card by the way if people are wondering what the what the heck's going on with the timing It was supposed to be in Seoul, South korea, but unfortunately chance on jung the korean zombie was the headliner He got injured. They decided to pull the card state side. They still are debuting quite a few prospects from asia So it is geared at that market so It will have to sit one out as they they usually accommodate our schedule over in asia the fight fans over there, but I will give out my two-legged here because that way you can kind of listen through my process of why I picked these two And luckily for us on the east coast or on the west coast a few of the more experienced usc fighters The guys that I would be inclined to bet with sizable data. They're slanted for the beginning of this card I think ufc knew that that their domestic audience would actually be more tuned in to the early prelims So these will tap in like 10 p.m. To 12 a.m. Eastern So it's not that late and we'll see if this guy caches or not before then my I love my lay this week It's my favorite of the year the first couple were kind of iffy. So I wasn't surprised they came up short I love this one and it is jung jung park and g on kim to win if you pair them together It's minus 113 at fandals sportsbook and uh park, you know, he's five and two in ufc He's been very successful So we know a lot about him at this point the two losses to anthony hernandez and gregari redriguez Could have gone either way But you look he's got a plus 1.07 striking success rate with much better competition than his opponent this weekend That is russia's denis tululun. He is one in one. He's this big athletic guy But we'll probably have a striking match too solid takedown defense is above 70 percent here And if that's the case park is just better 50 striking accuracy compared to tululun at just 42 percent 52 defense compared to tululun at just 42 percent and by the way for middleweight's division average 42 percent for tululun is poor on both fronts. He was very fortunate in his last fight Got a technical knockout after he actually ended a couple of illegal groin strikes and it's clearly compromised the other guy Kudos to jamie pickett for trying to fight through that, but he was definitely compromised As I think many of us would have been and I don't think tululun is is definitely on this level because matchmaking is made Via wins and losses when you win you have to get somebody tougher and that's jung jung park And I don't think he's ready. So the other side is gion kim. She's my favorite type of target There's what to me the one single piece of impactful advice I could give to your listeners Do not care about wins and losses when it comes to betting ufc because guys are overvalued or undervalued based on straight outcomes all the time You could get poor judging decisions You could get unlucky finishes like I talked about with the groin strikes I look at how these guys are performing in these fights and even though gion kim's lost four fights in a row She's actually landed 20 more strikes than our opponent at this time. She's fighting well It's just been a little bit unlucky at times and she steps way back in competition here to mandy bomb Overseas signing from germany that just hasn't panned out she against two other ladies with negative striking success rates themselves She has a negative 1.27 striking success rate kim at plus 0.02 is the best one She's faced so far and kim's fought ranked fighters. Uh lexigrasso molly mccann So I think these two natives of south korea were handed favorable matchups for their home card They're still favorable matchups when they come stateside and i'm very excited about this parley this weekend Yes, those are junyong park is minus 245 a fandal sports book against tululan And then you got gion kim against mandy boom a minus 295 now Let's say someone out there and you probably do together. It's minus 113 let's say Someone out there listening may not be a huge parley fan Do you think that both these bets are good values individually? Yeah, so I I would pay I would pay kim closer to a minus 400 favorite when I run through as far as her advantage Is this as the success on the feet and then jungyong park you can already see sharps have kind of founded this line up It was minus 186 last week already up to minus 245 I think the closing number is going to end up around minus 300 325 just as park is more evident He really he's only had a couple of weird fluke incidents in ufc. He's been very efficient as a striker Um, I expect that number to keep going in both of those lines have shot up and I would get this now because it was It was plus 105 as a lay when I got it now minus 113 and trending with sharp money that direction Okay, so that's where we're liking here across ufc and the nba for tonight That is austin swam make sure you check him out on twitter at a swing three mentioned the betting guide That is over on numberfire.com Talking ufc. You'll I assume I have a big one next week too for I think there's a pay-per-view next week, correct Absolutely lightweight championship alexander volkanovsky islamakachev two of the stars in the sport We'll have a big betting guide and a big podcast as well next week. So make sure to tune in Awesome looking forward to that check out the podcast over on the number fire daily fantasy podcast Even the betting guide over on number fire austin. I appreciate you swinging by for today Good luck to you with nba for tonight and ufc this weekend. We'll talk to you once again soon Have a great day jim Alrighty again check out austin swam on twitter at a swing three We're getting back here on the show again toxin hl after they're all star break toxin mba and uh, I'm looking forward talking more Ufc as well But for today, let's dive in now and talk about the first nascar cup series race of the year that is the bush light clash at the coliseum betting odds that just went up for fendall sportsbook yesterday and It's a pretty fun one and I will say that for me from a betting perspective for this week I'm gonna take things a little bit lighter in part because I will be in a state where betting is not legal this weekend I'll be in massachusetts and they haven't mobile legalized mobile yet So I'm gonna have a couple of pre weekend bets and then let that ride so for me personally Bit of a lighter weight Card for this week just a couple outrides that I like as of now and then letting that ride for the weekend, but It's track. We have just one year of data There are no really similar tracks given that it's a a short flat track But it's not the same straightaway length is martinsville. It's not the same tire wear as richmond Not as big as phoenix or new hampshire. So there aren't really any true cons now with that said I think last year's win and joy legato is pretty predictable. That's why I feel okay Betting this race despite the fact we don't have a lot of data I think I can model it the way I have things modeled right now for the clash is I have It modeled as if it is a short flat track, but with the volatility of bristol basically So a more vol volatile short flat track because bristol is not short not flat Well, it's not flat It's high banking a lot of volatility there take that volatility apply to this race That's the way I have things involved without right now and that's going to lead to Not betting any favorites. Uh, you've got joey legato the guy who I bet every single week It seems like he's plus 750 same as chase elliot Kyle arson plus 850 christra bell 9 to 1 I can't get there with any of those guys, but there are three Drivers I have a lot of interest in right now based on the odds a fandal and elsewhere I have to add that caveat because one of the guys I like most is no longer available 12 to 1 a fandal. It's ryan blaney You can still get him a 12 to 1 elsewhere. So I want to talk about him quickly here Before diving into two uh, two drivers So I think are undervalued at fandal specifically if you get him a 12 to 1 Blaney's implied odds are 7.7 percent. I have him at 9.2 percent. That's actually third highest for me behind Legato and kyle larson We saw blaney last year Have the best car in the finale at phoenix. I know legato won But that was probably because he's blaney's teammate and blaney's kind of hung out behind him It seemed like he let it win So he had the best car in that phoenix race I think he had the best car in the first phoenix race too he had a top four finish in both martinsville races and He had a really good race in richmond, which has always been a tough track for blaney. So I think blaney's undervalued in general at this number. So if you can still find him a 12 to 1 I would take it 10 to 1 value is lower there So I probably passed despite being pretty close to to my what my number has him at so If you can get blaney 12 to 1 I would still like him 10 to 1 at faddle probably going to pass there The two guys I like at the faddle odds are william byron at 15 to 1 and I'm sorry. You can cringe if you want ty gibbs 75 to 1 starting off with byron He ran pretty well at his heat race last year during this one And he's been good at martinsville for a long time now had a runner up when he was super young at martinsville He won the first race there last year let 212 laps in that race he won the truck race that year that week I believe as well despite starting way in the back We did see byron's struggle down the stretch last year That could be something or it could just be variance But he's in kind of the age range where you expect a driver to Really start to search. He's still super young But getting to that point where he is about to potentially be In the uptick from an age perspective I have byron's win odds for this race at 7.3 percent and his implied odds at 15 to 1 Are 6.3 percent. So I think that he's I'm less enthusiastic about him than I am about blaney Less enthusiastic about him than I'm about ty gibbs less enthusiastic than I was about chase briscoe when he opened at 50 to 1 He is now 25 to 1 justifiably so But I don't mind byron. I think that he is among the guys still where they're at He is one of the better values now ty gibbs and 75 to 1 you can cringe. It's okay. I don't blame you gibbs Rough with a lot of feathers feathers last year in the XINITY series I get it And it is a long shot long shots are long shots for reason But I think that fandal in putting ty gibbs at 75 to 1 is Using what gibbs did in the cup series last year as his baseline and I'm not I would rather Take the typical scaling I use when a driver moves from the XINITY series to the cup series And lean on that because last year gibbs's first race in the cup series was on Super short notice kurt busch gets ruled out on saturday gibbs gets called up runs a race on sunday I think he was actually back in charlotte before running that race But he was thrust into that car with no prep And when he was trying to learn the cup series car He was still running for a championship in the XINITY series a very different car now Gibbs has that experience in the car last year, but he also has had a full off season to prepare so we know He's insanely talented. He won. I think it was his first first or second XINITY series race the day to on a road course He won three out of six races in the XINITY series last year on short flat tracks So yes gibbs is a long shot for a reason and it might wind up flopping But when I look at the number on both ty gibbs and Noah gregson gregson is also 75 to 1 Over a fandal sports book. I have more interested in gregson for Daytona than this one But when I look at those numbers it says to me Fandals using what they did last year is their baseline as opposed to Adjusting up from the XINITY series and projecting them that way I think that's a mistake personally based on the learning curve for this car based on the fact They were running for a championship in a different car Obviously cared a lot more about that with gregson. He said openly He wasn't going to take chances because he didn't want to get hurt and miss a race in the XINITY series so I think that those two drivers Although I have a pretty steep curve for rookies moving up from the XINITY series to the cup series I think they're undervalued So I have gibbs a 2.4 to win versus 1.3 implied That may sound very high 2.4 But I don't think is I think it's appropriate based on The team he's driving for based on the talent he has shown 2.4 percent is like 40 to 1. So it's not like he is a betting favorite I think you should just be a lot shorter than 75 to 1 so The two bets I like most based on the current odds the Fandals sportsbook William Byron and tie gibbs. William Byron 15-1 tie gibbs 75 to 1 And I do like Blaney more than Byron if you can find him at 12 to 1 still out there Another driver where I'm showing value is kevin harvick at 25 to 1 He's 18 to 1 at some other spots. So it is a good number I just don't tend to bet harvick on newer tracks or newer formats because it's his last year in the cup series He's up there in age And I based on that I kind of feel like adaptability may not be his best trait We saw this a lot in the covet year where they were going to new tracks for the first time Harvick struggled in a lot of those like the the road course races specifically. So I don't think adaptability is his best trait right now He's likely got bigger goals this year than winning the clash So I'm fine passing on harvick despite the fact that I am showing Quite a bit of value to be fully honest Um on him at this number. So despite the fact I show value there. Oh, I will pass I think that's me the better bets this weekend based on current odds Blaney at 12 to 1 if you can get it Byron at 15 to 1 and Gibbs at 75 to 1 If you want to have some fun and then if briscoe if there's a bad number so hanging out there like 35 I would say or longer. I would take that as well But he's 25 a fan duel. So that is all gone. We'll be talking more NASCAR on the show here I'll always put it at the end of the show. So you don't need to listen to if you don't want to but It's my best sport So I want to talk about here on the show and if you are interested in getting into NASCAR we'll have A bigger preview coming up before Daytona to get you set for that That is all that we have here for it today though on covering the spread I want to thank austin swain once again for swinging by breaking down his thoughts on nba And ufc we talked to NASCAR as well and tomorrow we're talking epl with austin cast of number fire So we'll have had football monday the first look at superl 57. We had nba. We had nhl We had pga ufc NASCAR epl seven sports one week. All right here on covering the spread It has been a blast so far looking forward talking epl with austin tomorrow Do not forget to subscribe to the uh covering the spread podcast feed wherever you get your podcast to get these as they go live And also check us out over on the fan duel youtube page if you want to watch a video version of this show as well If you've got any questions for me I am on twitter at jim sonnis and j i m s a n n e s you can also follow the fan duel podcast network At fan duel podcast want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your mba bets for tonight We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down some soccer This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network