 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread? That is our sports betting podcast here on the fan dual podcast network getting you set for week three of the NFL season and breaking down our Favorite bet Brett bets on the board with Brett Colson getting tongue-tied thinking about Brett Who will come up here and break down the week three lines in a second. My name is Jim Saunas I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire joint as always by Ed Fang of the powerink.com Ed I messed up your name a couple weeks ago. I messed up my own Yeah, I called you like I don't know I got the power rank mixed up with your last name today Oh, yeah, I almost messed up my own name Well, Brett has no idea that we're gonna break him down on the show today. So it's a shock to his system breaking Brett down But how are you doing that? I'm doing good exciting week of NFL action and I'm looking forward to the Daniel Jones era in New York. Yeah for for human purposes and Yeah, it's gonna be great and we always we're gonna talk about this with Brett And we're gonna go through the impact of all the different quarterback changes But for you as when you're looking at NFL stuff and you see quarterback changes How willing are you to? Bet on a team or against a team with a new quarterback change and stuff like that Do you try to take a wait-and-see approach or do you try to exploit things that you may see in new lines? Yeah, give or take. I mean, I mean, I'm definitely interested in going against Daniel Jones this week just someone Who last year as Duke's quarterback they ranked 57th in my adjusted yards for pass attempt So not anyone I was impressed with going into the draft Shocked that the New York Giants took him over a guy who actually performed in college like Dwayne Haskins and But you know some of these other situations like it's really hard for me You know I can start to make a quantitative estimate for quarterback changes After we get about three games and what the markets think about that and that that gives me a good kind of baseline to Figure out what a line should be but obviously we don't have that right now, right? And we have some really big injuries with the Saints and and the Steelers so Yeah, so those are kind of more stay-away for me from now to see how the backups perform So it's a case-by-case basis I have to have a really good read on a situation in order to dive in and I think I have a read on the Steelers We're gonna talk about that with Brett's Because I think I'm higher on Mason Rudolph than others may be I have no read on the Saints because I have no idea what the heck they're gonna do So I will fully stay away there But it's really it is a case-by-case basis and I just try to get a feel for my thoughts on them and go from there We're gonna talk to Brett find Brett on Twitter at Brett Coulson. He is the managing editor at the lines com He's also co-host on the gridiron gamble super contest podcast and on the lines podcast We're gonna preview week three of the NFL and get Brett's thoughts on all the quarterback changes Some of the big lines and the three biggest games of the week if you're looking for some college football talk We had Kelly Stewart on yesterday Kelly in Vegas to break down college football. We talked Michigan versus Wisconsin We had Auburn versus Texas Texas A&M and of course Georgia versus Notre Dame got her thoughts on all those games yesterday If you want to find that just search for covering the spread wherever you get your podcast spotify Apple Podcasts Stitcher I heart radio wherever you find your podcast you can find Covering the spread while you're there Please leave a rating and review because it does help us out tremendously to get those before we bring on Brett We're gonna go through what happened last week here on the podcast and recap all that and covering the past Covering the past So last week on the NFL show we had Joe Fortinbaugh on and talking about Joe Got some good insights from him. We talked about the Dolphins game against the Patriots He wanted the Dolphins if the number got to 21, but it didn't I think it stayed around 18 and a half So thankfully Joe avoided the landmine that a lot of a lot of the other rest of logic logic was sound Yeah, our team of professional football players allegedly allegedly Joe said he was not good. Yeah Joe said he was not gonna touch the Browns and the Jets with the simian news and that one why don't be in the Browns Ugly game. We'll talk about that the Browns with Brett He did want to bet the Rams minus two and a half against the Saints and they did wind up covering So that one I think they probably would have covered even if breeze had stayed in I thought the Rams played decently well overall the offense didn't really get a lot going but the defense is playing well even before that so Rans minus two and a half successful there didn't mention since he minus two against San Fran the 49ers though Really looked awesome in that game. So I thought that that was an impressive game for them And we mentioned the Titans minus three against the Colts the Colts got a close win I think it was a lot of it was conservative play calling on the Titans part I Think they kind of hate my boy Marcus, Marriota, and it's really worrying me Yeah, I mean it was kind of a disappointing result just because you know I've talked so much about how I'm down on India and you know, we're slowly starting to maybe change that You know given how good their offensive line has looked but Tennessee, you know, like how are they good? They've been so NFL average the last three years nine and seven every year Yeah, are they gonna break above that like can they crack the top ten? We'll see we'll see I love my guy Marcus now We'll never turn on him, but I think they have and that matters So that was disappointing. I didn't think that that had happened yet. The last week really was discouraging for me I mentioned the over on 45 for the 49ers in the Bengals that one It finished at 46 and did go over there and then also mentioned the under at 47 and a half for the Charters and the Lions that game I think was a 16 to 13 game finished at 46 and a half went under there So the totals went pretty well last week I'm gonna talk about another total in covering the future later on today But at I think overall we're just getting good insights here and learning a lot about teams We can also still exploit what we saw in week two as we'll potentially talk about the Bretts with that 49ers team Doing what they did last week any big takeaways for you from week two Yeah, I mean I thought really Cleveland was was pretty interesting on Monday night They won one kind of handily Not sure that I'm you know putting them in prime Super Bowl contending status yet You see the brilliance in what Mayfield can do and then then they kind of look lost sometimes I feel like they could just be a volatile team this year I think that that's kind of my read on Cleveland and I I like volatile teams for DFS I do not like volatile teams or betting. Yeah, so it's a it's a different thing for me for sure I think that we're gonna see a lot of that this year, unfortunately a lot of Unpredictability and that's kind of what you get when you have a shaky offensive line Again, Freddie kitchens is a guy who was able to combat a lack of talent up front last year But they all said Kevin Zitler who was no longer there and kind of a nice security blanket to have So I'm interested to see what goes down there Yeah, absolutely also mentioned like, you know, I thought Atlanta played really well against Philly Not a game that I expected them to win But you know, they kind of look like what they're supposed to on offense and breaking off some big plays to win that game And I was kind of down on their defense a little bit, but it didn't look terrible so Another one and we'll get get get into that a little bit and covering the future Yeah, absolutely And I think another big takeaway from week two for me was the Packers defense Validating that it was not just Mitchell Trabisky being bad. Yes, Kirk Cousins made some mind bogglingly awful throws But they were also forced Dean Lowry I think is a defensive lineman for this Packers team It was eventually gonna start to get more love nationally and he forced that awful interception by Kirk Cousins And I talked about them yesterday uncovering the future wanting to bet Then doing the Super Bowl at 17 to 1 So you can find that in yesterday's podcast, but the Packers defense really Impressive to me so far if you want to get in on the action check out the Fandall sportsbook today and place your first bet If you lose Fandall will give you a refund of up to five hundred dollars in site credit visit sportsbook.fandall.com For more details terms and conditions apply must be 21 plus and physically present in New Jersey or Pennsylvania gambling problem call 1-800-GAMBLER. Let's bring on Brett Coulson right now You can find him on Twitter at Brett Coulson again He is the managing editor at thelines.com and a co-host on the gridiron gamble super contest podcast and on the Lions podcast We're gonna break down week three right now with Brett Coulson Covering the present Let's welcome Brett Coulson here into covering the spread Brett. It's been a while man. How you doing today? I'm great. Thanks for having me. I'm honored to join the podcast today Absolutely, Brett and I used to host a DFS podcast together back in the day with rich Ryan Brett still hosts a podcast with rich the gridiron gamble super contest podcast So excited to get the band partially back together here and talk a little bit of week four of NFL But Brett before we do that You're a bills fan, right? I am yes, and things are a little exciting over here right now I want to ask you about that defense because Josh Allen like Josh Allen's fun Like I don't know about Josh Allen as a quarterback He's really fun to watch that defense through the first couple of weeks and through last year, too They've looked really good. Are you thinking this team has a little bit of juice this year based on the way they played? I mean the defense kind of is what we thought it was they did add at Oliver in the middle there And he's obviously a beast but the real difference is Josh Allen I mean he's a different quarterback to just this year you can see him learning on the go He's you know, he's making plays that he you know He wasn't making last year throwing the ball out of bounds and not taking sacks when you know He should be throwing the ball away. So I mean that it's a different Josh Allen It's you've got he's got experienced receivers now to throw the ball to who are taking some of the pressure off him as well so I Don't know man. It's a like we got a pretty easy schedule, too So it's like could we get there we kind of snuck in a couple years ago It might it's kind of got that feel to it this year and I like that They're still letting Josh Allen use his legs because that's such a key strength for him So that's been pretty fun to watch. I just as a fan. I enjoy watching him So it's been it's been interesting for sure what Brent usually will go through a lot of process-based stuff But today there's just like so much news that we had to go through as far as quarterback changes And I kind of want to pick your brain on the different situations here with quarterback changes Three pretty notable ones and I want to get your thoughts on them from a betting perspective Starting off with the Saints Teddy Bridgewater slash Taysum Hill both potentially playing for the Saints What's your read on New Orleans here with the quarterback change and Drew Brees being out? Well odds makers seem to think Brees is worth around three points over Teddy when the advanced lines were posted for this game at Fandall last week the line was Seattle minus one now. We're looking at four four and a half This would normally be a spot Or I had looked to take advantage of public perception and the overreaction to a quarterback injury But it's difficult to do that with Brees because of how valuable he is to this offense granted He hasn't been the same Drew Brees for at least a year now I mean the Saints haven't thrown the ball downfield at all It's evident he's lost a lot of zip on that ball But Brees is so good before the snap that it hasn't really mattered He's still grading out as one of the best quarterbacks in the league Just because of how efficient this offense is with him making decisions at the line So I think it's a pretty big downgrade to Teddy slash Taysum Even though Teddy is regarded as one of the more competent backups in the league You just you have to account for the value of veteran like like Brees or Brady Brings to an offense because of their awareness and their experience So I think this line might be a point off even though I think it's a really good opportunity to sell high on Seattle It barely beat the bangles in week one and survived against a different quarterback a Backup quarterback last week in Mason Rudolph Point off here. Is it enough for you to actually bet it and go with the Seahawks here at minus four and a half? No, I I don't know what we're gonna get out of out of that offense the quarterback situation Yes, this is this is a stay away from me, but it's certainly an interesting spot Excellent. So Brett, what about some of the other quarterback changes? We have Mason Rudolph in Pittsburgh solid offensive line and some playmakers around them a team in Pittsburgh But I thought kind of flew under the radar a little bit this preseason. What do you think about the Steelers team? You know, I don't put big Ben in the same category as breeze He's also clearly been declining But this has not been a successful offense with him under center Certainly not in the scent in the small sample we saw this year and even last year with AB and so many playmakers around him And on top of that, I'm a Mason Rudolph guy I feel like this I feel like he's the forgotten quarterback of that deep class with with Baker and Darnold and Lamar and Josh Allen and I'm and I'm encouraged By what I saw out of Mason Rudolph last week, so I'm buying low on Pittsburgh here And they face two tough opponents to start the year more importantly two of the best quarterbacks in the league And this defense hasn't gotten into a groovy a lot of young talent on this defense It's one that I had pegged is potentially one of the most improved in 2019 And here against the 49ers we can also sell high on the 2-0 team that is not as good as its record shows So, you know, I do like what I've seen out of this 49ers defense so far But there's just no way this team should be laying seven against Pittsburgh. That's It's crazy to me and Mason Rudolph I would back you up on that too because you look at his numbers at Oklahoma State like the dude is really good But he was also super experienced and in my research of what successful quarterbacks do well in the NF Or you know have on their resume coming out of college a lot of them have a lot of starting experience Mason Rudolph had 41 games with at least 10 pass attempts in college And he was very efficient obviously You have to look at with a bit of skepticism given the conference in which he played but he played really well And now you give him this offensive line. I agree. I think that This team will get a downgrade without without Ben Ralthusberger But probably not enough for me to get in on the 49ers here So interesting situation there and I think I agree I'd be more inclined to go with the Steelers there. Let's talk about the Giants Daniel Jones down in Tampa Bay Making his debut and this one is interesting because when they released those That look at though the way that quarterbacks move lines Eli Manning was the lone starter who was actually dragging his team down Do you view Daniel Jones as being an upgrade for the Giants here against Tampa Bay? I don't really know what to make of this You know, it's it's definitely worth keeping an eye on how this team responds to this kid under center There has to be at least a little added buzz and revitalization in that locker room It's just spent so stale there for years I need to see it before I have any conviction one way or another with this team So I mean, I'm staying away from this for now, but I'm really intrigued by the highs and lows of Danny Dimes Already in this young career. I mean the guy was boot on drafting and then Torched defenses in the preseason and unfortunately I'm not a guy who sits on the couch watching Duke Duke football every Saturday So I don't know what this kid is yet, but I'm looking forward to watching it and then kind of taking it from there Yeah, I didn't like what I saw from him at Duke personally Both in the numbers and like watching him, but I mean, it's not Eli. We know what Eli is I want the uncertainties. So I agree with you for like from a betting perspective. I want to stay away But I think overall it's probably a positive for that team. So we'll see how that goes I'm not gonna ask you about the Jets with Luke Faulk because I guess I am you know what? Let's do it. Anyway, let's talk about those two big favorites here We got the Patriots and the Cowboys both favored by 22 and a half now Fandall Sportsbook and Brett I think that these are pretty massive lines, but you can also understand why they are that massive Do you think that the the Patriots or the Cowboys can cover those big numbers? Because they're they're pretty considerably large. You're asking someone who was burned by this Miami team last week I had I had them on my card in the circus sports million contest in Vegas because Like in what world is professional football team ever a 19-point dog at home while apparently we are living in that world And what's so interesting about Miami is having Ryan Fitzpatrick quarterbacking Makes it so much more volatile and I definitely didn't account enough for this last week You know with Fitz you're getting a player who's gonna give you everything he has for all four quarters Which is great if you're getting a lot of points and you need a backdoor cover But that also means you're getting negative script DGF Ryan Fitzpatrick Who is gonna make horrifying throws that result in turnovers and as we saw last week Scoring plays multiple ones and Miami just isn't gonna be able to come back from that. They just they don't have the personnel so I mean you're not looking at Getting that every week in this new England defense is just so prepared and disciplined Like you can't bake those defensive touchdowns in the lines But the opportunity will be there for these huge favorites to pile on points in a variety of ways and a variety of ways against Miami The team is just built to be bad like these players aren't tanking but the organization is and I don't know the best way to approach it I thought for sure Miami was the right side last week and now I just don't I don't know what to do with it It's it's like it's like unprecedented. I don't know what this is Yeah, I know and especially with the just being having in two injuries a quarterback. It's I completely agree with you You know, I kind of tweet I tweeted out just jokingly like are we are we making this argument that that Miami is a bunch of professional football players and They're gonna show up. So but we shall see right. Let's move on to Ravens at Chiefs pretty big matchup Ravens that look very good in two games and the Chiefs are Explosive on offense with Patrick with Holmes What do you see in this game Chiefs minus seven total at 55? Well, I'm looking at Baltimore Look Lamar Jackson had he's had two really good matchups so far and I he's got another pretty good one here But obviously a lot more pressure going into this game Maybe the most difficult place for an opposing quarterback to play He was good an arrowhead last year in week 14 6.1 yards per attempt to touchdowns no picks and a close Loss and it could not be overlooked how much Marquis Brown adds to this offense with his ability to stretch the field This was like brilliant traffic by the Baltimore Ravens He helps his offense in so many ways and I don't know how the Chiefs plan to defend him this week Either quite possibly the biggest matchup or biggest mismatch speed wise on the entire slate And the thing we've seen with Brown is teams are afraid to press him because his release is so good off the line of Scrimmage he just dances around cornerbacks and runs by them so I mean he adds an element to this offense that has the potential to make them and a Juggernaut offensively, I love this offense You know all the talk leading up to this season was about the defense But I think the offense is is gonna be the unit that carries this Baltimore team as for this game You know, I think it's a pretty fair line I'm expecting a lot of points. So if anything I like the over here I think these two offenses are tremendous and you actually get a good opportunity here because the over its slid down It's now 52 for this one So and like you look at these two teams last year Baltimore ran this like Creepish pace once the Marjaxon took over but they're not running that same offense anymore And I think that you kind of to throw out the numbers from 2018 with Baltimore Because they are letting him throw the football and that kind of changes their team the Chiefs are always a pretty fast team So I agree with the number at 52 now I think that does give an opportunity here to you ride with the over here in this one I think it's definitely an interesting game for sure. It's now Chiefs minus six. I Agree, it's a pretty efficient line. So probably a stay away for you, right? Yeah, I mean if it ever got to seven again, I would lean Baltimore But yeah, definitely looking at the total here just a game we can watch and enjoy there for sure Oh, let's move on absolutely Falcons at Colts the Colts are one point favorites in this one total is 47 And the Colts have been a bit of a trendy team to bet through the first two weeks So these based on people I follow on Twitter and they've covered both times This is their first home game here And I think that the way that I view them is how they perform relative to expectations to me The Colts have either met or exceeded expectations in each of the first two games. What about you, Brett? What have you seen from the Colts through their first two games without Andrew Luck? So I've been really high on Indy throughout this entire process. I loved the early summer Super Bowl contender Colts I loved the post Andrew Luck retirement Colts when they were somehow plus 500 to win that division I still love them this week because I don't think the market has corrected yet to me This is a better team than Atlanta even with Jacobi percent under center. So laying one point feels It'll lead like two points. Maybe even more off to me I don't know why this isn't just Indy minus three but the betters have spoken a lot of public and sharp money coming in on Atlanta, which is Truly baffling, but apparently I'm seeing something here that others aren't and I'm I'm excited to take advantage I love the Colts this week. I'm gonna keep pounding the Colts until this market corrects itself What did you see that drew you towards the Colts like is it you know, is it the offensive line? Is it the still guys is it percent what drew you there? I mean, it's it's it's everything. It's the coaching It's the organization. It's the culture. I mean, I really felt like going into the year That was a you know outside of New England. That was that was the team. I was ready to say all right This is you know, this is the team that's going to supplant the Patriots as the AFC, you know, the AFC You know top top dog and I think they were headed there Give you know even even still though I think this is a team that's going to be in the playoffs this year with a really really good roster and that offensive line Is where it all starts Interesting. Let's move on to Rams at Browns Pretty interesting game runs with three-point favorite the Browns won on Monday night, but I would not say they looked impressive you can see some flashes from from their offense, but Thought Baker make it looked a little lost at times. What do you think about this game? This is one of those games where I let the market dictate where I'm leaning because those the line looks perfect to me everything you know Everything you just said is spot-on the Browns haven't looked good offensively and better to take a notice because most of the money So far is coming in on the Rams. So, you know, gun to the head I'm taking Cleveland because their stock is super low right now. This opened Rams minus one last week at Fandle That was before LA beat a Breeze list Saints team So we might be getting a point or two of value with Cleveland not one of my favorite games of the week I'm gonna enjoy watching it certainly, but Yeah, I wouldn't touch this one And I think that one thing that does bolster that argument is that the Rams? They're breaking in two new starters in their offensive line Austin Blythe their right gar left on a cart yet Or in week or last week and has a spraying ankle So I think that when you're putting up three essentially new starters on your offensive line against Sheldon Richardson Miles Garrett I know the a Vernon. It's pretty daunting So I agree that if I were to go here, it would be with the Browns, but I agreed It's kind of a fun game to watch But what about the Rams overall for you outside of just this game? I think that they're kind of a tough team for me personally to read so far. I I've liked what I've seen again relative to expectation But I haven't been blown away by them yet What are your overall thoughts on the Rams through the first two weeks? Yeah, I feel like they may have peaked last year, you know And now you know the running back situation isn't I mean, you know running back is running back But still I mean Todd girly does matter and you know what we saw to girly last year is not what we're seeing this year and that does play a factor in what this offense is able to do and you know the defense I Felt like the defense over performed last year And I don't know I haven't read the latest on what Aaron Donald's status is. Is he is he good to go right now? It looks like he is But it won't be at full health because the back issue and that's something that goes away right away So I mean if that if that is a lingering thing This is obviously a team that I'm gonna be looking to fade week week after week, right? So interesting game for sure any other bets you see on the board that you like Brett week number three This can also be numbers that you grabbed earlier because I think that talking about those and why you grabbed them is pretty Valuable but thoughts on that other bets in the board. It's actually the opposite of that The most interesting game to me this week and one that I will be on all of my handicapping contest cards is Panthers Cardinals this line got flipped on its head Late Tuesday night early yesterday morning the Panthers were minus two and a half on the road And then Cam Newton is all but ruled out and the line moves five points the other way and why? Cam Cam Newton has been Broken since the late last year and Kyle Allen looked fine as a starter last year filling in for Cam Newton This rod this Panthers roster is considerably better than Arizona's. I don't understand The market shift here at all. I look at this as potentially one of the best spots of the whole Season to take advantage of the the public perception and overreaction in the betting market This line is crazy to me. So I mean if you can grab Panthers minus two and a half right now if it does by any chance get to three I would just I would pound that well and the other thing too is that's had an effect on the total in that game It was I think 46. It's now 43 and a half. Yeah, and Again, it's kind of like was Cam worth three points overall in this total here So I think the total is more attractive. I'm gonna talk about that in our other segment here later But yeah, I mean, I think that's a really interesting one I think that the Cardinals are interesting because I've enjoyed what I've seen From Kyler Murray, but I hate what I see from Cliff Kingsbury from a decision-making perspective So it's definitely an interesting one there anything else you want to shout out before we let you get off to all the other stuff You got going on Yeah, sure. I mean, I'll push a little stuff We got going on over the lines if you're out there and hate betting trends as much as I do You definitely want to check out the new series We have up the lines looking at the five worst trends of the week and why you should light them on fire We also ranted about it on the lines podcast this week So hopefully some good information out there for new bettors about some of the noise being spewed into this new Sports betting universe here in the US so far here during the NFL season Do you look to bet against those trends because I think that there is value in doing that Is that something that you found success in doing is it better? It really depends on what it is I mean, if it's a trend that's you know, the people are looking at and it's actually moving a line Then yeah, I'll certainly get on the other side of that but for the most part these trends that go back years I mean, you just you just toss them the trash. All right. That is Brett Colson Find him on Twitter at Brett Colson. C-O-L-L-S-O-N Brett. I want to thank you for coming on good to have you and talk to Your voice a little bit again. It's been a it's been a while So I appreciate it. Good luck with week three and hopefully we'll talk to you again soon. Thanks guys Covering the future All right one final thank you goes out to Brett Colson for joining us here today on covering the spread Brett is a great guy goes back a long time with it We had that podcast for two years the DFS podcast with him and rich Ryan It was a lot of good times great way to start off my Thursday So nice to talk to Brett once again and Ed I think it's a it's a pretty fun slate we have on tap for week number three and one of the games that is Interesting there is the Colts and the Falcons and you want to talk a little bit more about that game and your read on it Brett was on the Colts. Which side are you taking here? Yeah, you know, I actually like Atlanta I mean, I hate to disagree with her guess But it you know, it's one of these things were You know Atlanta really had a rough game week one at Minnesota There was a fumbled punt and interception and they were down 14 nothing before they before the blink of an eye Never really got back in that game. And I think they actually look pretty good against Philadelphia Last week, which we already talked about and especially with had some questions about their secondary and their past defense But just impressed with what they did Against the Eagles and getting that stop on fourth down to seal a game and Indy You know, I've talked a lot about Indy. I've talked a lot about how I don't really Love this team They we kind of got what we expected week one You know close six seven point loss at the Los Angeles Chargers and then definitely an impressive win at Tennessee I'm still not so on the Cindy team You know before and I think with both of these teams I'm not really ready to kind of move off my preseason prior for either one of these teams and and the analysis that I do too Is would agree with that so in the preseason I would have made Atlanta about a half point favorite in this game on the road I think they're in the upper upper middle class of the NFL I think Indianapolis is in the lower middle class and that's where like that kind of comes from you make a couple adjustments for First two weeks of the season. I still have Atlanta as a one-tenth of a point favorite in this game So pretty much a 50-50 push Loved it at Atlanta plus two and a half earlier than this week still lean towards that Atlanta plus one On the road. I just I think I think Matt Ryan's a great quarterback. You can see this pass offense being top five When everything is clicking. There's just not as much firepower on the other side I think that the reason that I am I think I line up more on the Colts side of things here and maybe it's like me drawing too much from small samples, which I have been guilty of plenty of times in the past but last year this Colts offense wasn't that good on the road and If you look at number fires net expected points metric Andrew Luck on the road average point Oh, wait passing that expected points per drop back So he was below league average on the road jacobi Berset this year in two games both on the road is that point oh seven So I think he's not Andrew Luck. That's we're not gonna say that. I mean no no one's saying right I'm not saying that but I would expect this team to perform a lot better once I get on the turf and can Let T. Y. Helton do his thing now one thing that would back up your point and going with the Falcons is that the Colts Have not been running the same offense from a play calling perspective They have been much more conservative in their play calling and they have been running more on first and second down Right, they've been throwing shorter passes, which makes sense if you don't believe in your quarterback I think that that would be a reason to back the Falcons. I think that the reason that I still lean towards the Colts is I Think that they have met or exceeded my expectations again in the first two games So I still think that jacobi Berset can open things up at home But that is a concern that lingers in my mind that Frank Reich in the play calling and decision making May not have full faith kind of what we discussed with right this Mario to the Titans Yeah, for sure and and part of it is that they've been really successful running the ball their success rate on the ground has been astronomical You know one of the best in that fell over obviously small sample But I mean it's something we can believe because you know with your offensive line analysis like we we know That they're gonna be able to run the ball and then you're you know transitioning from look to Berset You know, maybe you're gonna break him in a little bit more or or just be very conservative all year either way There's just not the firepower there is on the other side with Atlanta a couple of the key guys on the Colts defense look a little dinged up in terms of Leonard the linebacker and and one of their cornerbacks So just another reason I would I would definitely even at even a plus one would lead in land of this game And Darius under one of the reasons that they did what they did last year like the defense wasn't good But they were better than terrible and he played a big role in that so I Think it's a really interesting game to watch and I think we'll learn a lot about both teams in this game So it should be a good week as far as getting actionable takeaways if the Colts look bad here I'm gonna get really works. I just traded for a jacobi percent in a dynasty league Let's go Colts and on the and then on the flip side of things like I've been really talking bad about the Colts But right if they can pull off a decent win without much turnover luck or whatnot Yeah, that opinion might start changing and then we get to look at some adjusted numbers in the NFL, right? Next week So we'll see how they look it'll be it's a big week this week for sure for week three My cover in the future is gonna be another total because I had some success totals last week So let's keep the good vibes rolling here and talk about a game I was discussing with Brett with the Cardinals and the Panthers this game has had its total goal all over the map It has been 46 it has been 45 and a half it has been I think it was 43 at one point it's not 43 and a half between the Cardinals and the Panthers and I Want the over on that number and the reason that I want the over is because both these teams have operated at a fast pace And we'll talk about Carolina the second with Arizona They rank second in situation neutral pace right now according to football outsiders and that's not gonna change because they've got Cliff Kingsbury They're running this air raid offense and when you do that when you throw the ball 40 to 50 times per game the clock is gonna stop and That's going to inflate play volume both for you and for the opposing team They've run a lot of plays so far through the first two games despite facing the Lions who run an archaic offense and Want to play keep away essentially they run a ton on first and second down That depresses volume for the opposing team They face the face the Ravens and the Ravens got ahead early in that game we're trying to drain clock running the football and Despite that the Cardinals have still run a lot of plays in both those games now They're facing Carolina and Carolina through the first two games has run an up-tempo offense And that is despite having Cam Newton not be at full health in that in that game against the Rams You know they're running an up-tempo system there and then against the Buccaneers even though Cam I think that was easily the more concerning game. That was a game where he apparently Reagorated that foot injury. They were still running fast. I think they're sixth right now in situation neutral pace So as they transition to Kyle Allen, I would not necessarily expect them to go with some ground and pound approach I think this is still a team that wants to run up tempo last year. They were 22nd in pace So maybe they go back a bit But even a 22nd ranked team in pace against this Cardinals team would be better than what they've faced so far Based on last year's rankings for the Lions and for the Ravens. So I think the play volume here will be very good I have liked a lot of what I've seen from Kyler Murray so far He exceeded expectations against Baltimore at 8.7 yards per attempt in that game did not score a touchdown But had that team close three or four times and Cliff Kingsbury elected to kick a field goal for some reason if things break differently I think that the Cardinals offense is going to show up And I think that because of that this game's gonna go over 43 and a half right now as of Thursday afternoon I like the the over there for sure between the Cardinals and the Panthers and I want to hear your thoughts though What have you seen from the Cardinals so far because I think they're a very interesting team with Cliff Kingsbury being there Have you like what you've seen so far? Yeah, I mean, I think I've obviously flashes. I I saw a very Like a very small sample when they look good coming back against the Lions and so You know, I tend to think volatile because I'm also looking at my some of my numbers in their 27th and passing success rate Over two games a lot of that was before I turned on that game Against the Lions. So yeah, I think it's gonna be a volatile type offense. They're gonna have some great games So again, you know, you know, the fantasy guys have been talking about this Cardinals offense Since the preseason. Yeah, so I think we're gonna continue to see that I was just looking Cam Newton's not officially out, right? So he's not out yet According to Ian Rappport of NFL Network He needed to practice Wednesday in order to play and he did not so I Would say that that the source of information has been incorrect before I will put it that way Things have broken differently. I Would not be like terribly shocked to be played But my baseline assumption right now is that he does not but it's within the range of outcomes that he does in which case that Total will go up again. So 43 and a half. I think if you can get it now, I would Well, I also find it interesting because Brett talked about how the side moved about five points Yeah, and then the total move three, right? And you got us you got assume on the side that the Newton injury is causing that move, right? So something seems inconsistent there. So I definitely like the way you're thinking about it and Yeah, I mean, I think Arizona adds a lot of excitement to the NFL Maybe we'll see that and it'll hit the over in the second quarter. Yeah I would agree with Brett to who's saying that he likes the Panthers here because the Cardinals defense is Not good. It's like it's amateurish honestly You look at with them with with no Patrick Peterson and no Robert Alfred I think the Cardinals will move with the football even without cam. So I don't know I would not touch personally the spread But I think the over here is a way to go and we'll see how that one goes But I think overall we're gonna get a lot of good information from week three We'll kind of see which teams are legitimate. We'll get answers on the 49ers I think which will be impactful and a lot of other teams. So should be a good week for some football We're gonna close things up for this week though back at you next week with more college football and NFL action Ed before that though anything going over at the football analytics show or over at the power rank this week Yeah, I talked on the football analytics show. I talked with Preston Johnson. He's the beard on ESPN's daily wager He's a professional sports better and great conversation. We talked a lot of games college games we talked about Syracuse SMU, Michigan at Wisconsin and It was actually the most important it was actually kind of interesting to hear him talk About things that we had talked about on the show. Yeah, I was state. So so he listens to the show awesome, dude We I was on my podcast We get into questions at the end that are non-sports related and we talked a lot about the time he spent in Portugal and The I can't I don't even remember the name, but there's a I listened to yesterday told me to listen to it after work. It's earthen F I think it's something Yeah, something like that But he was also talking about the Packers, which made you feel better about talking about the Packers on covering the spread And so I think hopefully some smart minds aligning here I don't know if I can count myself there But like hopefully a couple people on the Packers here So I feel better about that but Preston I thought was a fun listen So I would definitely recommend finding that over on the football analytics show wherever you get your podcast You can find Ed's work over at the power Inc.com you can find Ed on Twitter at the power rank if you want to follow me on Twitter I'm at Jim Sonnis J. I am S a N and ES you can also follow the fan dual podcast network at Fan dual podcast big thank you goes out to Calvin Theobald our producer for today as always for keeping us on the video side of things Thank you to Brett Colson for joining us and breaking down week three across the NFL Thank you to those of you for tuning in today and yesterday Check out our week four college football preview and week three NFL preview we'll be back at you next week with more covering the spread until then good luck with your bets and enjoy the football This has been covering the spread. You're on the fan dual podcast network