 Okay. Very good morning. It is Wednesday 13th of January. As you can see, I'm joined by none other than Sam North. He's been building up his bid for his return to the morning briefing, but I thought I'd get Sam on because we've got a new group on our professional trade program at the moment. And what I wanted to do was bring Sam on because as you see, I deliver the briefing generally on the macro fundamental basis every morning. But I wanted to really connect the two in how is it that what I talk about then gets implemented in terms of a trading strategy and obviously Sam is a trader. He trades every day. So I'm an analyst. So it's good to I think connect the dots and see how from a macro point of view, we can turn that into an actionable trading strategy. And Sam's going to be on. He can talk through the charts with a little bit more of a technical perspective. And hopefully we can tie in the news as well. So first things first, let's just have a quick look at the charts and how things are looking this morning. So the overall general sentiment was we had a fairly flat close on Wall Street, actually, I mean it was one of the more quiet days I'd say the US indices compared to what we have been accustomed to in recent weeks. So pretty flat across the three majors. I think, as I've said, a couple times in Amphi live stream this week. I think this week specifically is quite back loaded the second half of the week really commencing today with US CPI this afternoon. And we got Biden stimulus plan coming up. We've got jobless retail sales there's a number of things as well as US earnings as well with the big banks on Friday coming up. Did I think just lends its hand then given the run up and general move we've had across asset classes since the blue wave, almost surprised to some extent, that was confirmed last week, a little bit of a hiatus in price movement, just awaiting then some of these other bigger fundamental events to unfold. So, interesting things to have a look at then and perhaps then for Sam to talk us through on some of the charts is in the FX space. So we've had a pretty decent bounce in the dollar of course, in the last couple of sessions but that did start to piece up a little bit. Yesterday, and that did help underline support for some of the major pairs, particularly a little bit out performance in cable. One thing has talked about the briefing yesterday that perhaps might explain some of that partially is the fact that the vaccination program has been speeding up in the UK. We've had earlier adopters of authorizing and then rolling out the vaccine sense of Pfizer and AstraZeneca so little bit out performance and pound and I've seen this morning I said some quite interesting levels so perhaps we could start there and have a look at some of the dollar pairs Sam. Yeah, absolutely. Let me just share my screen and bring on the pound and as you mentioned, the dollar pairs did hit some key support yesterday and maybe the evening before and the pound which will talk through first. You can see just coming up my screen in a moment this, this had a really nice trend channel or trend line was called it for now where you can see clearly respect to go back to the high that we had on the first real trading day of the year the fourth of Jan there and was held really nicely all through yesterday session as well until we pop through and as is the case with some of these breaks, you know they really do push on and doesn't matter if it seems overbought or whatever and yeah took out the high here and you know as we looked then this was the next key level and we didn't quite close the day above the high that we had on the sick which was also the low that we had on the fourth but whatever we do to then and I guess then we look at it on the break will be pretty key so for the pound at the moment pretty good. I would say wouldn't be too surprising for us to have a bit of a retracement back down towards this area, some of those support points that you were talking about. And we were saying this in the sort of the closing end of day calls for the pound. It would have been so key if cable could have closed below 134 55 on the futures but it couldn't. And then it reversed and you know then next thing you know you breaking above the previous support term resistance sellers would be super happy to see it come up to that point but then go lower. It doesn't we push on and next thing you know as we said 137 comes in and it's almost at the high of the year so the levels are respected well. Just going to bring that on and as you mentioned that had a decent move yesterday same again couldn't break lower and what a level support I mean this is just fantastic and a couple of the guys, the back traders although I think it's Gavin got one of these trades up from those lows or it might be in the pound, but I will wave fantastic and you can see again it's that got that solid resistance when we look at these lows that goes, and it doesn't hold back and that's just people that are short they don't want to be in this anymore. And also for you I'm really really interested to see where we finish the week here. I mean we're still down on the week. But I tell you what a close above the sort of the breakdown area that we had back in April 2018 the first close above that that that whole point. It's going to be super super key we're in a bit of a mini range. You'd call it bigger move to come if we can either break above breakdown below, although ultimately that whole 120 area. I'd actually do quite like the look of a long so yeah decision time to come and I think you can absolutely understand why price couldn't further break down yesterday but yeah it looks good. Certainly for the year and pound although hitting resistances this this early morning. Yeah I mean one thing to be aware of for today is from an economic kind of point of view from a data perspective it's pretty much not existent as far as the UK Europe is concerned but Christine the guard the ESP president speaking at nine o'clock and she's taking part in a q amp a open session at a Reuters event. Now she did speak earlier on Monday in the week but she didn't really say anything it was a very off topic kind of appearance that she was she was hosting so this certainly brings about a prospect that definitely she could say something in terms of what she could say. I guess it's the usual things if you think about when the last ECB meeting was a few weeks ago, you know what's changed well a blue wave for one there's been a notable market movement and that will lead us on to talking about the Fed. Some of their rhetoric we've had in the last 24 hours been particularly interesting. So anything about the blue wave repercussions that might have for US global economy does that also the the kind of policy view at all for the ECB vaccination roll out. We were talking about this beginning of the week Europe's been very slow to really adopt, particularly the astro drug which really is much more wide kind of scale in terms of its manufacturing distribution capabilities and think it was France is administering doses at all the UK is doing it 15 times faster than France at the moment so there's a couple of things here which we could be quite interesting if there is a Q&A format with the precedent attendance then to question her on these sorts of things I definitely would be aware of that if you're trading the euro from a fundamental perspective but yeah flipping it over to the Fed and talking about the US. And there's actually a really nice move in US 10 year last night and it came at around six o'clock so I'll bring my chart up for a moment. Bottom right chart here, you can see the timing was around six o'clock so the timing of when government bond auctions come out. We've had bond auctions and we have more coming through the US Treasury throughout this week but it was the 10 year and so the kind of equal maturity bond tends to react quite aggressively when it's being auctioned off or offered. And it was received with high demand bits cover a show was was pretty high, all things considered given the massive amount of additional supply that's coming onto the market still plenty of appetite to purchase this and so markets took that as a catalyst we bounce back up higher. And also putting into context the fact that the 10 years being to be hammered since the blue wave and this whole kind of inflation expectation changed the reflation trade on stimulus and Biden and so on so a little bit of a preview there from from the lows. But one of the things that that's emerged here is a day ago, we had two new voting members on the FMC, barking and bostic, and they were talking about this idea that given the roll out of the vaccine if done successfully then we could be seeing a solid recovery in the US economy by the second half of this year. And if that does happen that might bring about this idea then of talking and discussing of tapering. Now tapering for those who are trading back in 2013 this will ring the alarm bells because that was the period of the taper tantrum. If you go back and look at history and have a look at that episode it was basically when I think it was when Janet Yellen was first coming in. And it was this idea of it's the first very incremental approach towards reducing then the looseness or the commoditiveness of monetary policy. So you stop actively buying bombs you stop tapering it down as a tool in that respect. I would say that that's that earlier fueled some of the kind of Biden blue wave trade, because if anything then that's a tightening policy. Just to rebalance the force almost yesterday and last night particularly was littered with fed speakers. Two of them that were standouts bullard I don't think it's too much of a surprise he's a big dove. So him talking about look, it's way too early to be talking about that kind of thing. The future is not assured, just yet, not particularly with the pandemic still raging on in America, but Rosengren who typically as a leaning hawk. He said that basically, we shouldn't even be talking about tapering or purchasing government and mortgage back securities just just yet don't expect that to be a conversation at this point in time so that definitely help that T note bounce. And also would have assisted some of that dollar weakness yesterday because I think people were getting a little bit apprehensive about just the word tapering being brought to the table so the Fed pretty quick to send out the troops to kind of counteract that to alleviate any concerns that that's, you know, still still far from from being a reality. For my opinion, I think it's way too early to be talking about tapering. I was looking at some of the numbers, the number of people being receiving the vaccine in the US at the moment it's still kind of gradually ramping up it's still very low and definitely off initial Trump targets that he set out a few months ago. I don't think that's surprising right now it's pretty much priced in but there's just so many uncertainties around a the development of the virus and be the success or not of the speed of the implementation of the vaccine program that I think you can't really be making assumptions just yet, right out of the woods as to then the second half of the year so yeah that's my kind of take on that that was really the major news for me to talk about other things. Trump, there was a non binding resolution last night where the house basically were forcing Pence kind of like look you've got a trigger that the 25th amendment and get rid of Trump. And he's not going to do that. He's already said he's not going to do that. It's this this is all about making a political point now it's all about the optics for the Democrats and the House which they have more control to just really for push home the point that you're leaving he got his a departing kind of blow we're going to have the impeachment vote today, that's probably going to go through the house that will get rejected in the Senate, end of Trump goes see later so it's not really that big a deal for markets and not really going to comment on it anymore than that but moving on then perhaps we can have a quick talk about oil, Sam, if you want to bring that chart up because we had the API inventories last night. So to get you up to speed we have a slightly surprise, not a massive but a sizeable drawdown of 5.821 million expectations were for a drawdown just shy of 2 million. Cushing was a draw 232,000, but we did our bills in gasoline at one point just shy 1.9 million distillates 4.4 million. So, what was the timing at half nine on the price. Yeah, so we had the API a little bit of a bump higher, and around that 5319 was a relative area of resistance that was restricting some of the price action you see on Sam's chart there. So the API did help act as a bit of a catalyst to what you just saw there on his chart has been a pretty solid rally really ever since the Saudis came out surprised the market, taking, taking that decision to cut supply. So we kind of initiated the next move and with some long term technical levels being breached. We still remain fairly bullish at the moment. A lot of this obviously down to the vaccination program going as per plan and also be particularly interested to see the kind of details and unveils when he does talk about his stimulus plans later on this week. That would be quite key then to see what exactly are we dealing with in terms of the size of potential boost or its likelihood of passing Congress. But Sam from a technical point of view. Any thoughts here. What a moon. I mean what's that 123456789, you know, 10 if this week is positive 1011 weeks to the upside. When we first came to this region 4939, you know, I would have definitely have looked to scale down and you can see that's what the market did really did come down it spent a couple of weeks below it smashed through it last week. And a great finish and it and it looked for all money that is going to hit the next resistance point relatively quickly little school. And first, well first sort of part of this week but we continued up so 5455 looks super important, good resistance back on. Yeah the 18th of February so almost almost 365 days ago although it did go pretty sour from from then as I'm sure we can all imagine so yeah for me that will be the next point to look at. Would that be a place where I would you know come out all that trade. No, I think 5728 is a bit more important reason being that was just that support point that gave way. Really from, you know, did well literally a year ago the 21st of January week. And then we really did push on obviously some very key support here then broke later we've just got above that as a resistance so yeah 5728 will be not an ultimate target and still legs would to go but a point where I could really understand that being a bit of a breather so for me, if I was multiple contract long multiple lots long, and I'll be looking for the price to come to to this point you know I'm not too interested in sort of looking at, you know, Elliott wave or lunar cycles or anything like that I prefer to look at these key market levels that have been respected before. Last time we brought through this we really push lower, continue down. Yes, there was a fundamental reason for that. What place to take some key profit. So I reckon 5728 nice line in the sand I mean from a psychological point of view a closer week above that. I think we can continue on and on and $60 comes quick but yeah 5728 not the next level because that would be the the point here 5446 but that would be my short term big target. I just wanted to share this for a moment, which is very recognizable. If you're an oil trader. This is looking at Persian Gulf. And the reason why I just wanted to briefly bring this up with some headlines this morning that Iran have conducted missile naval exercises in the Gulf of Amman. So, just wanted to talk about that just briefly. So here's the Gulf of Amman obviously the northern tip of that area and the southern border then of Iran is the major global choke point in the world which is the straight of hummus, which obviously is particularly crucial for the transportation maritime routes coming out of the Persian Gulf and the likes of Saudi Iran Iraq, Kuwait and so on so very, very sensitive area, but oil hasn't really moved and absolutely as what I would expect so and how I'd interpret that type of news flow, which is, why is Iran doing making these kind of noises at the moment well for me it's quite simple, we've got a new administration coming in. You can start kind of re escaping like the landscape, if you like of what is it exactly the team Biden's going to do in the Middle East and with the Iranian nuclear cord and and so on and so forth so they're just, you know, this is all, it's almost like a Brexit posturing, just in a slightly more kind of talking of conducting missile tests and so on but it's the same negotiation point, it's just making a stance in order before then you deal with the new, what will be political force which will be the Biden administration so for me I don't really see this at this point, and turning into anything more than just rhetoric, however, obviously this is a highly sensitive area, geographically for oil prices and if there were, if we move back into thinking about this time last year Sam. Remember it was, I remember the Daily Mail putting out a headline of we're heading into World War three. That was when obviously the Iranian Revolutionary Commander got got killed and then there was the prelude to that was lots of, you know, kind of drones being shut down on disputed territory and that particular area and cargo ships getting captured and we're not quite at that level. Right now, however, it's definitely worth just bearing in mind and keeping an eye on and certainly any disruptions here would obviously be a strong positive force to push oil up through some of these technical levels but I wouldn't anticipate that being this situation anymore than just rhetoric at this point in time. Let's look then Sam, perhaps some of the US indices, I know it was quite a quiet day yesterday but we've got CPI coming out later on this afternoon inflation is like to move higher on gasoline prices obviously just looked at oil has had a phenomenal ride of late, but outside of that price pressures, the perception is they're still pretty benign. I don't think it's the point of people getting spooked just yet about inflation remember this whole inflation trade that people have been looking at the blue wave we're talking about future inflation. Not that it's emerging right now because remember in the US specifically, we're in the midst of stricter increasingly sort of lockdown measures at this point in time just going to impede demand generally speaking so yeah US indices though Sam any any Let me bring you on the S&P now. One of my favorite trades really from from the back end of last year cross multi asset has been the false break of a level and, especially when you've had a nice, you know, not necessarily nice because admittedly in recent weeks it hasn't been one direction completely but it has still been an uptrend and it has been for a while. But the sort of the false break when it looks like on the intraday that it could break down and it just can't quite you get these false sort of pushes lower and then you get the reversal. And it's been a really good opportunity, like I said across multi assets we saw it in the euro and the pound earlier in the briefing we just seen it now with the S&P as well so that's an area to certainly keep an eye on if I was, you know, long medium term shorter and you know this is the level for me where I would start to just panic a touch if we come lower 3774 really nice support in recent time but also the high that we had back on the before for Jan so it was, you know, another key level so that for me marks an important point to the downside we look to the upside where you've got a pretty key resistance and you're going to have to call it a zone you know today is high. If it breaks above that you've got to be careful because yesterday's highs just above that then you've got the R1 then you've got the high back on the 11 so it's it's a zone and a key one at that because you've almost got three reasons or four if you could today's a bit of a mini range now what happens when we get up to there will be will be interesting a break above then we look at new all time high territory. If we do find resistance and come back down midpoint or be a choppy you would have to sort of give it towards the pivot as another key level so these would be the three points that I would look at today and whether they even come in to get tested of course we don't know but that's how I would see it on the the longer time frame and I was looking at this with a few of the guys yesterday just about you know using Fibonacci I'm not a massive fan of it but on longer time frames I will consider it and I was just looking at sort of this recent push that we've had to the upside and depending where we take it from 30th October low or the 24th again up to you and that's maybe the issue and actually is that not everyone will have it on the same point but this whole region here the 38.2 3600 that would be a lovely pullback to get in but like you said is there a worry at the moment are people panicking not just yet about stopped and for us to get down there will be a 60% move I don't know about you but I can't quite see that happening just yet so but now I'll be looking at other highs and 37, 33 or as we said you know even maybe another little false break of 37, 74 could be worthwhile thinking about. A quick look over NASDAQ it's okay with you as well as the Dow before looking at the longer time frames you can see that yesterday as well came down to it sort of a lovely area of support and it's that false break I really like this across the board, I think the Dow Jones did the same albeit on its sort of previous overnight low the day look at these false breaks here price comes through can't close comes up it's a support and get off to the races but importantly today can't quite get above this all important resistance level so stuck in a range. And, and yeah, I mean the more times we come down to test those supports, you know do you want to get long but I think overall for now, we can continue higher I would say and how do you, how do you see the short term. Yeah, it's interesting because there's, you know, we were looking at the T note move from yesterday there's obviously a decent pop on the upside, the equities have blinked this whole talk about tapering. Obviously from an income perspective it's a little bit more direct. In regard to probably yield sensitivity but stocks stocks not bothered by any of that chatter and I think that's quite telling you've also had number of people come out criticize big tech and obviously none other than Donald is spearheading that talking about their controlling society and we should, you know, take away their powers. But the one thing that this probably will lead to this situation that did happen, whoever's fault it was on Capitol Hill is that, you know, the Democrats will be doing just the same. So we have to re look at the types of regulations over big tech and we know that big tech is such a proportionate, you know, large representation of what really is the stock market these days so even with that, the market still not coming off so but it's hard to see this market coming down. I mean you were just looking at some levels there but you're looking at pullbacks down to what 3600. Hard to see that happening a 6% move I just can't. I can't even, can't even see it what could cause it if I'm talking if I'm thinking about let's say this week alone for example, probably the one thing. I think this would happen, but what if Biden came out and it's an absolute damp squib and it's just his proposal is just flat as a pancake and it's like it's not stimulus at all. Yeah, there's any risk that Biden could, you know, come in and do a lockdown, like a full scale one. No way. That's absolute baloney. He put that out as a political ploy just to be contradictory to what Trump was saying. Absolutely have no belief at all. If he could he not do that administering a nationwide lockdown when the US operates on a federal and state level as possible. Yeah, that's just all political gamesmanship. No, but yeah, would that impact markets. Absolutely it would. Would he do that. No, could he do that be incredibly difficult. So, yeah, I don't buy into that at all. A risk perhaps I still think the main risk here is still the virus. And the main risk on the virus then would be we're getting lots of reports about not just the spread of the UK variant but perhaps now a newly formed US type variant a mutation of your mutation. Now if that then renders vaccines redundant, we get pushed back a couple of months, which is going to impede the timings of the recovery. Then I think we get a pullback. But then the Fed come in again and start talking it up so, but that could create your 6% pullback in the interim period. And just so that that's not the base of case of what I see happening at the moment, but that can be probably the one single biggest risk to the equity space. But yeah, low probability. Cool. All right, well, and that's going to end this briefing now, but we're going to take a few questions for the guys in the Amphi live community. Thanks a lot.