 The founder and pioneer national chairman of the defunct Congress for Progressive Change, CPC Senator Rafaah Anga, has said there was an implied agreement that President Mohamed Buhari would hand over power to the national leader of the all-progressive Congress, APC, and former governor of Lagos State, Bola Tinibu, in 2023. Anga, who chaired one of the parties which collapsed to form the APC in 2014, said the agreement was the reason why Tinibu remained in the APC after Buhari's first term. He, however, expressed doubt that the APC will give its ticket to Tinibu, predicting a fight ahead with power blocks among governors and some other forces in the presidency. Joining us to discuss this is O'Ponabo, in Kotaere. He's a political affairs analyst. Thank you very much for joining us, Mr Taere. Thank you, Mr Taere. Yes, so there are lots of, they said we would do this and we would do that, but let's start with the fact that this man, let's look at the messenger, and then we look at the message. A former chairman of the defunct CPC, of course, that used to be, used to be the party where President Mohamed Buhari was, and then, of course, all of these parties merged together to become APC. And before measures take place, I'm sure that there are certain agreements that are taken, but then when you hear the term a gentleman's agreement, it looks like a handshake in the dark, isn't it? Well, a gentleman's agreement does not necessarily mean a handshake in the dark. I mean, it's just about understanding. In most cases, it could be implied. In most cases, it could be expressly stated. It depends on your understanding of the signal from the other party. If it's implied, but if it's expressly stated, then it's obvious. It's losing to everybody. I'll give this to you if you do this for me. That is what you call the consensus added there. If you do this, I'll do this. If you give me this, I'll give you. But if I do not so expressly state it, and you infer that it is not implied, you infer that this is going to be a reward for doing this. Well, so to speak, fine. But one point has to be noted. It is not where it's patrimony. This is a democracy. We are not talking about a military regime. It's not a juncture where A will say, I'll hand over to B for the role you play in my assumption of office. But isn't this what is obtainable in Nigerian politics? I mean, we have heard many governors who have handpicked people and said, oh, when I step down, it's going to be this person. And then when I go down, it's going to be that person. We've seen it happen in many states. I mean, why all of a sudden is this a crime? Is it because of the president? Is it because it's the APC? It is first and foremost. It is not, it is antithetical to democratic practice. But does it happen? Don't talk about that. But doesn't it happen? That's why it is. That's why you don't express this so steep. Because you are trying to say, you're going to have any cause of banning the will of the masses. Their votes will not count because the democracy, it devotes the masses, they decide who becomes the leader. So I want to, I want to take you up on this. Because it is implied. Let me take you up. God knows. Let me take you up. Hold on. Yes. Let me take you up on this. When you say that we are not allowing the average Nigerian person to determine who becomes their governor, that's already determined at the party level. Why? Because the ordinary Nigerian, most of them are not necessarily members of the party caucuses. They do not decide who wins the party congress or primaries. So really, does the average Nigerian really have a say in who the party finally gives us as the governorship of the presidential candidate? I mean, literally, it looks like these people are being foisted. Whether, whether the more, I'm not speculating. I'm just saying. That's what I'm saying. But it's the party that produces the candidates, isn't it? But, but, well, even if Buare had made that promise, I have to say, if it was in Trapati, that would not be part of Nigeria here. But even if Buare had made, especially made that promise, there are dynamics. The situation has changed. And Buare probably would have made that promise just for him to get the ticket. Because we know the role Tini Bu play in Buare's imagine. We know the role Tini Bu play in Buare's victory. So if Buare would have made that promise, and Tini Bu would have played those roles, would have contributed so much. Believing he was going to succeed Buare, or he is going to succeed Buare. But then, don't forget that at that time, how many of them were there? How many were in the party? How many people have existed in the party? These are the issues you're going to consider. And you now have power blocks. New power blocks? No. There is just this rumor that Tini Buare has fallen out. It goes to your point where Mr. President himself has to come out to say he had no problem with Tini Bu. So a lot of things would have happened. A lot of other would have gone under the bridge. So as you speak right now, you have new power blocks. New power blocks that can comfortably checkmate Tini Bu. Before now it was Tini Bu, Tini Bu and Tini Bu. But I can tell you today that you don't just have the Tini Bu faction. You have at least three to four major factions within the APC. And all of them have the years of Mr. President. So it's going to be a little bit difficult for Mr. President. We are going and going to hand this power over to Tini Bu. It's going to be a very tough order. Because a lot of people, they must have agreements, reconciliation, and what even as I understand, even the President, who is in government, is also interested. Interesting. It's also interesting. Yes. So you have a lot of issues. So it's not going to be as easy as a lot of people think that this Guaroo does get up all the time to say it's not with Tini Bu. Even it, and what is not coming back for a second, for a top 10. So even though you have that influence right now, the influence is not as strong. It has been said that it's not as strong as it was in its first time. You have the nine mother, we can talk it to her with this man after her his meeting. That's a very funny thing when governments, twice the people, after one or two years, or the second time that even their so-called beneficiaries, who are who took over from them, have issues with them. Because they are not there to hide with you. What else can you do? You're already out of power or you're going out. You're on your way out. So that's exactly what the situation will be. It's not going to be the President to say it's not going to hand over to Tini Bu. It's not going to be that Tini Bu. Tini Bu will really have to love it for it. I'm curious about the sensitivity of this issue. As much as many people would say, oh, pain or ear, I mean, Hangar is calling it an open secret. He's said that he's implied that it's an open secret, that every serious member of the APC knows about this implied agreement. But then we reached out to several APC stalwarts and leaders. But they all passed on this particular issue. They refused to speak, including, you know, Senator James Aquano Doidega. He also said he didn't respond to this. So does this signal that there might be some trouble brewing in the APC, being that Hangar also said that it's going to be pretty tough for whoever would emerge to be President on the platform of the APC, being that it's he seemingly implied that it was a house that was on shaky footing? Well, first, a lot of people were probably still to respond because I think that they were probably aware of this implied agreement. And now, because of the prevailing circumstances, and so we're not going to be caught in the crossfire. Maybe they are aware, but they have realized that it's going to be difficult. And they don't have to be quoted. Now, you're quoting the former CPC chairman. They don't want that for themselves. So because in politics, you have to be extremely careful so that you don't fall on the wrong side. And I think that's what they are, but they are just being cautious. On the issue of APC winning in 2023, it's all on that because of its abysmal performance. There is so much hunger in the land. The insecurity of the doomed apocalyptic dimension. In fact, everybody, there is so much uncertainty. In fact, there is confusion. Hunger tracks the lives of this country. So it will be very, very difficult for anybody who might be an APC chairman, APC candidate in 2023 to win the election. It will take the intervention, especially the intervention of God, for that to happen. Really, I'm curious and I'm not in any way saying that the APC will or will not win. I mean, that's subject to the elections in 2023. But we seem to see a lot of movements in the APC's direction. We're seeing governors who are, you know, defecting every other day. Now, that's me using every other day loosely. Again, we have seen the PDP governors, the PDP governors saying that they're being threatened by the APC and they've been threatened to defect. I remember the spokesperson for the PDP governors after that meeting, implying that there seems to be a push and a hammer, you know, trying to knock them to move to the opposition. So if you sound like, oh, it's the tall order for the APC, they seem to be building their strengths in lips and bounds because they're stealing from the opposition and they're growing their numbers. Isn't that even a plus in that direction? Yes, yes, I can tell you. But most of these governors that defected from PDP to APC did not defect because they believed in the ideals of the party, did not defect because the party is doing well. In fact, that would be an indictment on themselves because as governors of the state, if the state is not doing well, your own state is not doing well, then you are afraid they're going to box us after a table. So they are defecting not for other centric reasons, not for any atrocity. It is not in the interest of their members. It is just because most of them are in their second term and they want higher office. Not even for pure persecution, no, but because the man who ordinarily would have persecuted them is also living with them. So it is for higher office, they are defecting because they believe that in the PDP, there is their chances of getting to where they want to get us quite soon. You know, there is this belief that in the PDP, you have somebody that is using his freedom, bringing his freedom to bear and is dictating to the party. A lot of people who have accused, have said that, many top PDP scholars have said that and have alluded to that. So they knew and most of them will come back to this impunity when they realize that realizing their ambition might be a little bit hideous. They will come back to this impunity. It is all about interest. Politics is all about interest. It has nothing to do with how well the party has said or how well the present government has said. It has nothing to do with that, no nexus with that. It has to do with personal ambition and that's how they are defecting. So if it's all about ambition, so if it's all about ambition, then it means that, I mean, if the APC is growing in their numbers every day because everybody there seems to be ambitious, does it not translate? Go ahead. No, maybe I should, I remember how I said, as we made an introduction, most of them will come back to the PDP or go back to the PDP. Before 2023? Even Justin, that can be the case. What is this? I mean, the policies have just started. The political policies have just started. By next year, early next year, a lot will play out. It's too early right now to come up with problems. A lot will play out by next, early next year. I can tell you that. A lot of holders are defecting. It happened even in 2019. It happened in 2015. A lot of holders have defected to the APC, will come back to the PDP and will apologize to the PDP and tell them it was a big mistake when they darkened out within their lives. It's not all those kind of political statements. That is what is going to happen in 2020. Let's examine the PDP for a minute. The PDP seems to be fading in its voice, unfortunately. And I remember talking to Colla Lovadinho, the National Publicity Secretary of the PDP I think two weeks ago, and I asked him why they have not played their opposition role as powerfully as the APC did them in 2015 and before it became the APC and why it seems like the PDP just recently found its voice again in the midst of all the insecurity that we've been facing in the country. So it begs the question. I remember someone who was on the show asked me, what exactly is in the PDP and why would people not leave the PDP? So really, let's take a look at the PDP. Have they really, you know, played their role well as the opposition? And what do they really have that would make their members want to stay put? Knowing that we're a country where, you know, we crisscross, you know, a long party line every other day? Well, like I just said, you've only bulked up my assertion. Like I said, it has nothing to do with ideology. It has to do with the fruition of ambition, where which party will be a better chance platform for me to realize ambition? It's as simple as that. Now, talking of PDP being a viral opposition, PDP has failed at this moment completely, compared to the role that this is played in 2014-2015. PDP, there is no position in this country, the opposition you have are the civil society groups and individuals. Not PDP at the fact. PDP is on a long journey of lethargic sleep, in the land of lethargic sleep on the nest. And you said they are just waking up. They are not PDP, they are not woken up. It's still a long journey, sojourn, in the land of lethargic sleep. It has no woken up at all. Because we are all aware of what they actually did in 2013-2014 or 2015. We are aware. And we are talking about this is 2021. And you cannot even feel the impact of the party, the major opposition party in the country. You can't even feel the impact. The PDP talks like any other animal you might be once in a while. You are not going to be proactive. Everything was quite proactive. PDP is only reacting. So that's the other opposition we have are the civil society groups and individuals. Not PDP, I can say that. I won't say this. If you talk about what the PDP has done, you see, the two parties failed Nigeria. No public. The two parties, no doubt about that. They have failed Nigeria. But then, when you justify the two between the PDP and the PDP, I can tell you that the PDP failed better. But again, it is a paradox. Why did I say it's a paradox? Because most of the PDP members, we are PDP members. And if we say the PDP members are from the world, then we are also saying, by extension, that some of the members who are from the world are governors or are ministers. But most of them today, we are PDP members. Okay. Well, so it looks bleak. You look from the start. You look confused. I'm a little confused because it's difficult for us to actually tell who's who now. But on that note, we have to wrap things up. Because I'm sure the avid Nigerian who's watching now is also as confused as us as to where is this ship headed. Well, thank you very much. Okay, we've already said for example now, the Minister for Transportation did actually where we were developed in the first ten. I've given an example in the university. Now he's an APC member. So how are you going to accept him? Well, we have to go. Thank you very much. We have to go. Uponaboy and Kutaira is a public affairs analyst. Thank you very much for speaking with us. We really appreciate it. Thank you. All right. Well, on that note, I want to thank you all for being part of the conversation. We are out of time. I am Mary Anna Kun. I'll see you tomorrow when we're analyzing other political issues. Have a good evening.