 Welcome, traders, to another Tick-Mail weekly market outlook for week commencing Monday, the 17th of October, heading to the US. The latest job and inflation readings have cemented expectations of a 75 basis point hike from the Federal Reserve on the 2nd November meeting and significant chance that we will see a fifth consecutive 75 basis point hike in December. However, some market watchers still favor fed slowing the pace of hikes to 50 basis points for the mid-December meeting, given the intensifying economic headwinds that should allow inflation to fall quickly through 2023. Housing market is going to be a key factor in this. House prices fell for the first time in over 10 years in July as the surge in mortgage rates prompted a collapse in housing demand. Things have gotten much worse since then, with mortgage applications for home purchases at the lowest level since the housing bear market of 2013. With more supply coming onto the market, the challenge to sell homes is going to increase, which will waive further on prices and lead to another sharp fall in homebuilder sentiment this week. Homebuilding looks set to slow further with existing home sales declining too. Moving to other data on the slate this week on Monday, October 3rd Empire State Index looking for a negative one print there. Regional surveys still showing a lot of weakness. Then heading into Tuesday, September industrial production looking for a negative 0.1% versus a negative 0.2% print last time out. Weakness in domestic and global demand remains a key risk. And then we get the October NAJB housing price index looking for a 44 print there versus 46 last time out with that housing market under significant and lasting pressure. We also hear from Fed Speaker Bostick on Tuesday. Then heading into Wednesday, September housing starts looking for a negative 5.6% print there. September building permits. Positive 0.5%. Demand, like I say, is being hit hard by interest rates rising while input availability continues to limit construction. We also get the Fed's beige book to provide an update on economic conditions across the regions and we'll hear from Fed Speaker Kashkari again. Then heading into Thursday we will get, obviously, initial jobless claims of remaining at depressed levels. We also get the October Philly Fed Index looking for a negative 4.5% versus a negative 9.9% last time out. As I say, regional surveys continue to demonstrate weakness. We will get September existing home sales looking for a negative 2.2% print there versus a negative 0.4 last time. Decline set to continue giving further tightening from the FOMC. We also get the September leading index looking for a negative 0.3 versus a negative 0.3 last time. Growth outlook clearly deteriorating in the US. And then another bunch of Fed Speaker's Evans, Bullard, Jefferson Cook and Bowman. Then we round out the week on Friday without any tier one data but we will hear from Fed Speaker Williams. So moving to the chart, technical setup. The daughter index continued to gain after that corrective move back into test the just below 110 as support. So what I'm looking for now technically, as we hold above the 112 level I'm looking for further upside extension and the first clue to that being in play will be a close through the 11375. We look for a root test price cycle highs on route to an ideal 11580 to 11604. And there we're watching for negative divergence, bearish reversal pattern story engaged on the short side looking for a pull back into test the midpoint of the current range 11319. At this stage it would take a close through the 111 handle to suggest we have a more meaningful high in place and then we will be looking for a test down into the 10830 2022 trendline support zone heading to the Eurozone. In terms of data next week, it's a slow start but we get going on Tuesday with October setting W survey of expectations really tanking at this stage and printing almost series lows last time it was a negative 60.7 and then into Wednesday September CPI seven year over year looking for well last time we printed 10% and the we're going to get the final estimate to provide detail on the breadth and the intensity of inflation within the Eurozone. And then we ran things out on Friday with October consumer confidence and again at series lows last time out negative 28.8 from a technical perspective and the Eurodollar trading within this triangle and for our intraday time frame here so if we can hold between the 97 to triangle support 9650s then we look for a test of the triangle resistance up towards the 99 handle. However any loss of support at 9630 is going to be a bearish development hoping it will be a test of prior cycle lows at the 9530s and then we could see things move lower to test the projected descending triangle support just below the 94 handle. Moving to the UK and really it's all about the political pantomime that's been playing out there last week with the fiscal U-turn sacking of the Chancellor and the induction of a new Chancellor Jeremy Hunt who has identified mistakes that have been made in the fiscal policy and the weekend over the weekend has been addressing the press saying that there are some difficult decisions ahead. Friday was a witch saw day in terms of the markets when Quartang was removed or sacked we saw a pop but at the end of the day we saw a continued sell-off in sterling and borrowing rates in the UK hitting highs. In terms of the data next week on Monday we get a read on the house price index the right move house prices and last time was negative 0.7 looking for more declines to come as policy tightening continues and this situation with respect to borrowing and the guild markets with the BOE removing support on Friday there are concerns that we could see a further spike in borrowing rates. Then heading into Wednesday we will get UK CPI for September 9.90 last time out energy inflation a key risk as we move into the year end. We ran out the week on Friday October GFK consumer sentiment at lows last time at negative 49 we also get retail sales a negative 1.6 print last time a negative so far this year highlighting the pressure on household spending. So from a technical perspective as a sterling dollar retains resistance at the 11370 area I'm looking for an extension down into the high volume node 1067 and then a test of the equality objective at 10812 if we can find some support there then we can look for a retest of the high volume node 11060s and potentially on back into trend channel resistance. Any closing loss of the 10812 opens 10626 and 10603 if we can't find support there then we'll be looking for a retest of price cycle lows but for now focus is going to be on the equality objective whilst we hold below 11380. Moving to a GFPAN data Monday August industrial production looking for a final estimate to confirm the 2.7 percent print there then we head into Friday it's the most important September CPI sent year every year last time 3 percent looking for 2.9 percent price pressure is gradually building and the BOJ has become increasingly focused on wages obviously with U.S. yields retaining their bid tone and that has seen the dolly yen continue to grind out to the upside with the differentiation between a BOJ who are extremely loose in terms of monetary policy of the FMC who are at the spearhead of tightening waging but we are coming into an interesting area or testing weekly projected trend channel support and the equality objective just below 149 so I'm watching for bearish reversal patterns here to engage on the short side initially thinking 14760 to get retested and then if we can get through there we'd be looking for a move back down to these price by Kai's 14580 it's now importantly any close daily close through 14870s is going to be continued bullish upside risks which should see us then targeting the monthly projected rate of resistance 15060 then from there do we see the BOJ back in action as they as they would be concerned about the rate and the weakness that would be posted in the end there if we do get that 150 tests running out the week from a data perspective down under in Australia rba minutes on Tuesday key insights into that surprise 35 basis point rate hike decision we'll also hear from Deputy Governor Bullock speaking at a conference on Tuesday then heading into Wednesday September Westback MI leading index slow down to the low trend pace looks like into deeper there last time negative 0.4 percent print then on Thursday employment data looking for a 25k print there versus 33.5k last time out employment was held back in August that absent sick workers with payrolls suggesting this effect continued in September so we're looking at an employment rate there of 3.5 percent and with some market watches suggesting we could even see a print there closer to 3.4 percent that runs out the data down under in Australia from a technical perspective current setup suggests we should retest price cycle lows 61 60s I'm actually then looking for move down into the 61 handle itself and we'll see there if bio step in on bargain hunting and we look for a three-way corrective move back into resistance at 63 30s and running out this week's outlook let's just check in with our weekend risk barometer bitcoin continues really just to trade within this range we're sitting right in the middle of it at the moment as defined by the high volume node just above the 19k level if we can hold there we look for a test of range resistance up to 20,300 any loss really of the 19k 18,900 was just back into test range support down to 18,193 notice the congestion that's developing with multiple triangles weekly and daily time frame we will be anticipating that in due course we will see a directional drive developers still have that downside equality objective sitting at 12,185 and that concludes weekly market outlook for a week connecting the 17th of October as always traders plan the trade trade the plan the most importantly manage your risk until next week thanks very much