 Okay, very good morning. It is Friday the 21st of May and just before I begin the regular briefing Don't forget to check out the latest Market watch podcast peers and I and the head of training are going to be having a conversation later on this morning And that latest episode is going to go out then if you just go to amplify live comm slash podcast You'll be able to access all the major platforms from from there like Apple podcast and Spotify and so on so do check that out and subscribe if you'd like to Get that every single week but look let's get straight into it and talk about the charts and what's going on this morning and Yeah, positive close on Wall Street and a really strong rebound from what otherwise was that day of crypto kind of turbulence mid-week And even those cryptos to a certain degree stabilizing after the firm recovery saw from that initial blip lower and sparse equity markets are concerned in the close on the 90 the S&P finished up about 1% a doubt half percent and as that 100 actually outperforming tech leading the The recovery was up about 2% as far as equity indices are concerned this morning seen marginally higher once again the Dax Center left here just finding encountering some near-term resistance at its Asia pack highs But otherwise kind of fairly tight sideways action just looking for the next kind of meaningful break now whether I've Fundamental kind of catalyst to spark that or just given a big push in either direction in in equity markets You tend to get then a period of consolidation and it might not be until the US session the reopening of deniesy before we get The next kind of kick on in either direction But otherwise just having a look in the NASDAQ future here in the center chart So again really clear to see the how strong that recovery was yesterday And on a daily chart, you know one of the things that we were watching just to see what the daily close would look like was Do we close above the 200 DMA of which what we did and that does to a certain degree Keep things relatively Positive in terms of the bears now from a technical perspective This is on a daily chart and that rectangle there is the one that we've been looking at and throughout the entirety of the week And that encompasses that double top that we had from the 16th and the 18th That it failed to really get through Initially, but now we're above that and you can see here not too much in the way of real Technical resistance, I'd say perhaps we keep me an eye here on 13 588 and then eventually I push back up Towards the price action We were trading the week prior and the bottom end of that range then we were trading in at the end of April around 13,700 and so Looking, you know quite quite good. They're on the technicals despite Generally some of the sensitivity that equities have been seeing S&P up about nine points this morning as far as the tenure is concerned Again, I just have this slightly annotated because it tells a bit of a story I guess for the yields and where we've been and really we've not we've not gone anywhere We've definitely seen some volatility and we obviously had that big CPI reaction Not this week the prior week where we saw that upside surprise But that pretty much got discounted for a variety of reasons we've discussed before With a number of factors being somewhat more convincing of that transitory argument He never had the FMC minutes and as we were discussing in this briefing yesterday We we didn't really foresee much real credible substance in that being still relevant given the weakness that we've seen Like some jobs data and how dated those minutes were we reversed All of that move and some yesterday really and so near-term now. I'm just keeping an eye on Kind of a short-term weekly trend nine as you can see here being relatively well respected Very quiet price action through the majority of the Asia-Pacific session So just holding a bit of a range here and as we go through this is why I'll be keeping an eye on but All in all doesn't really get too interesting unless we start to see a break on the upside And we get this kind of push back up looking to then use these previous kind of trend line highs as targets on the downside Not really looking too Interesting unless I think we get down to the lower bound of the range of what we've had in the last two weeks to me to be quite honest Otherwise elsewhere in the commodity space WTI crude Yeah, quite considerable selling pressure throughout the second half of this week and on the daily chart Which we've been watching is this trend line going from really the year-to-date price action and we did actually Close just beneath it yesterday And you can see we're just even irrespective of the fact we're up 17 cents We've moved a little higher on the daily chart since we opened we remain on the underside of that trend line for the moment so in terms of the weakness of Crude it does come on the back of the fact that Global powers taking part in the indirect US Iranian talks on a return to the nuclear deal have accepted that US sanctions on Iran Including on its oil exports will be removed and as such that's then brought in an expectation of the fact that Iranian Supply will be coming back into market And that's what's kept the price under pressure throughout this week So if we do continue to remain a little heavy here to kind of areas I'd look at as marked up here would be put a rectangle 6061 so you've got these lows on the 22nd 26 was an area of support as well beginning of April So around here and then quite strong support would be anticipating further much further down 5750 But these would be much more medium term moves because we're talking about multiple dollars away from the current price So yeah, certainly we should see how we Perform throughout the the rest of today But you know one would say that we've already repriced here a good six dollars or so five dollars And so how much of that Iranian news has already been priced in at this point because ultimately as Much as the Iranian supply might come on the market. We are still anticipating demand to increase over the coming months, of course as Western developed markets or Economies continue to reopen, but then also we start to see Some more control over some of those outbreaks in Asia with places like India You've probably not really seen Indian COVID in the headlines much this week And that's because cases are going down and and general mainstream media doesn't like reporting good news You know, he reports bad news, of course So but these would all be positive indications of further at some point in time a more uniform global based recovery Which is going to obviously support demand. So again still of that more medium-term view that you know any any buying will ultimately be counteracted by Only selling will be counteracted by buying lower down if if oil does remain the pressure. Otherwise just having a look at The FX markets the dollars touch weaker this morning worth keeping on the dollar in fact because if we get an extension of weakness We could break through the the lows From earlier this week and you know the euros just kind of sat there at the moment close proximity to the highs that we were printing two days back and On the daily chart, you can see that these would be meaningful technical levels 122 49 here on the Euro future daily That was the high back on the 25th a fair but breakout of that really would be targeting the 123 handle and sat just above that would put us back to the range where we're trading kind of Resistance mid-deck of last year and the eighth of Jan would be the most obvious target but certainly, you know any Brief periods of dollar strength have been counteracted and that the downward trend that has really been in place since April Continues to be the case at the moment as markets Generally perceived that yes inflation is increasing but as far as nominal yields are concerned if they continue to remain fairly constant and not reflecting this kind of outright concern about immediacy of near term inflationary fears then the Fed we're going to remain accommodative and now Inflation perception will still be transitory and so dollar weakness still prevailing to a certain degree and looking at cable this morning We've had a bit of a breakout here from the overnight kind of early Asia pack range and so just moving up to where we were training at the highs from Back mid-week the 142 handle So cable on the daily now getting really close back to within about a 40-pip Striking distance of the year-to-date highs. We have had UK retail sales come out this morning month-to-month for April 9.2 percent above the expected 4.5 and in fact at 9.2 percent that is Very strong, but actually just inside the top end of the most Optimistic estimate on the street, which was for 10 percent now The reason why the figure is so strong and there were some banks looking for a very strong number is because this is April readings and this was linked to the reopening of shops that we've seen during that month And so naturally retail sales with more ability for people to have spent different ways was kind of on the balance Expected to be potential upside surprise, but nonetheless cable a little bit buoyant here and as I said If we could get a continuation of those themes then definitely be keeping an eye for Further run-ups here on the on the intraday chart. They are one lines up pretty much with that high That we saw back printed on the the 18th as towards the beginning of the week Could well come into sight pretty quickly All right a couple of other news headlines just to keep you informed One is in the UK We still are keeping half an eye on this Indian variant and its developments at the moment Because any real meaningful pickup in this could well have consequence then for The timeline of the execution of that final part of the four-point roadmap in the UK Which is looking I would say More unlikely than not that we will reach that June 21st deadline for complete kind of dropping of any Social distancing and so on so the number of UK cases of worrying of the coronavirus Variant from India is more than doubled We're now standing at just shy of three and a half thousand for a second week It's now increased as authorities also monitor. There's a new mute mutation of the virus It's called the Vui 21 21st of May 01 basically at this moment, so it's quite date-oriented on the new Variant the pub public Health England the PHE have said that there's currently no evidence of the variant causes more severe disease All renders the vaccines currently deployed as less effective, so Don't know for me at the moment The way of which this Indian variants performed and any subsequent mutation off the back of that was like what we're seeing reports at the Moment, I think the mutation if this new one is about 49 cases at present Given the fact that so far the vaccines appear to be still effective even through Changes in the actual virus in itself given now the amount of the adult population. That's already been vaccinated I don't see too much risk assigned to what's developing at the moment Sure, it might move the at the end kind of date for the overall Loosening of restrictions for the UK beyond the 21st of June by a few weeks But ultimately I don't think that makes a great deal of difference and I don't see too much threat at least at this point as far as The pound is concerned for example to pull back on on any of these ending COVID concerns As long as the vaccines remain effective I think we should expect more mutations in the future and hence the reason why the likelihood for necessary Necessity for booster shots and so on as we go forward in time COVID here for the long term We just need to learn to live with it essentially So yeah, that's my take on that moment and then one of the other things was, you know, I did briefly mention crypto Bitcoin futures kind of just Tracking around a thirty nine thousand to forty two thousand banned at the moment in the last couple of Hours But something that was quite notable. It did see a slight drift in prices after that recovery. We saw Kind of late Wednesday and through Thursday was that the US Treasury has said the Biden administration's proposal to strengthen tax compliance Includes a requirement for transfers of at least 10,000 US dollars at cryptocurrency To be reported to everyone's favorite friend the IRS the internal revenue service So just to to be aware of again, one of the things not immediate maybe more long-term that Given the shakedown in markets that we saw in the crypto space midweek and just given naturally Demographic trading that and the marketing pushes that we see from low-commission platforms to try and trade things like Cryptocurrencies for so on I mean I was talking to Sam obviously used to be on the team and he's now Working at e-toro and he was saying just generally the volumes of usage and activity there is almost 100% crypto and I think one of the main things and I was going to make the point is is regulatory pushback And the kind of the hazards entailed with quite aggressive marketing to try and tap into a fairly Vulnerable market in terms of their education and over what things like leverage mean for example, so and you've probably read lots of stories over Over the last week about that in particular because you know there was some the Selling pressure for it to materialize in the way that it did midweek and lots of Bitcoin and Ethereum and so on was due to a lot of liquidation of positions because of a lot of the leveraging that was happening and so yeah, I think regular regulation Even if it doesn't actually come to fruition. I think politicians might get a lot of political kind of points for making a bit of a point out of Why crypto currencies and that was in suing volatility that we saw it's something that they should be talking about as I said though You know Regulation change happens at a snail's pace. So I don't think it really Impedes things in the short term at all for the price of various different crypto currencies. All right, quick look at the Canada We've got some important information coming out this morning You got the French and the German manufacturing service flash PMIs. So these are for May and these will ultimately be Market moving as to what degree? Well, I'll be keeping on the service number from France expense at 53 Which is improvement from 50 spot 3 and if Germany on the manufacturing side Expected to still remain particularly firm at 65.9 from 66.2 These figures should generally start to improve here on out because particularly in mainland Europe The administering of vaccines is really started to pick up pace over the last month and a half two months now They're kind of really catching up after that really quite slow start with the vaccination rollout program And so as such with case control becoming a little bit more effective as well and case rates remaining lower then Basically people should start to become more optimistic about what the future can bring And so these figures generally will either stay pretty high like on the manufacturing side in Germany or continue to improve From quite low levels like in the case of French service sector So yeah, if that does materialize obviously that could then give the euro a bit of a propensity to break through that R1 and weekly high and if we do in the dollar breaks down and cables already on the firm footing on the back of the Decent retail sales report could see a nice progressive move in some of those directional trends that are materializing already this morning at the Open in the major currency pairs The UK PMIs as well come out at 9 30 you get the US readings at 2 45 No major one studies from the US today, and then you as a consumer confidence flash reading at 3 p.m. Speaker wise There is a Euro area finance minister and central bank chiefs holding an informal meeting today Christine Lagarde the Eastview president will be speaking at midday at a Eurogroup press conference as far as Fed Speak is concerned only run really it's feds daily who is a voter and should be at 6 30 later on this evening But that is it. So I'll let you guys get on with the day. Don't forget to check out the podcast Just go on to Spotify Apple search market watch vampire live. You'll be able to find it Otherwise have a good session ahead for the great weekend. Thanks very much