 Good morning and welcome to the Monday market update with me and David madam today's date is Monday the 9th of March 2020 and the time has just gone 1008 GMT and it's been a brutal trading session so far Some of these moves Haven't been seen for years even decades in some cases. It's been a phenomenal phenomenal training session so far There's so much going on it's almost difficult to Cover every topic. So I'll just narrow it down to the main topics There's been a colossal Sell-off in the oil market The oil market is down in excess of 18% it's off the lows of the session We have been down, you know, we have seen first steeper losses Then then this essentially Where's it? This this this comes from was at the back of them last week OPEC We're talking about cutting production by 1.5 million barrels per day The Russians weren't too keen on that. Does it is a group of all producers if you take OPEC and it's it's colleagues Or it's a it's a wider alliance including the likes of Russia that becomes OPEC plus There was talk that the overall group could look to come production Russia walked away from the meeting without agreeing any production cuts There seems to have been a massive breakdown in this coordinated Alliance between all the major oil producers somewhere in OPEC some just kind of work closely with the organization And that is kind of cause a major rift between this up between Saudi Arabia and OPEC over the weekend Saudi Arabia started aggressively cutting the price of oil of its of its energy contracts. It sells out to Europe and Asia and so on and so forth There's even talk that the sound that that Saudi Arabia are looking to actually increase output And with that we saw a colossal fall in oil trading when they got trading late last night The settle the session in Asia one night has been brutal today here You know a 1010 GMT the oil market WTI and Brent crude respectively are down in around the region of 89% which is a massive move the moves we've seen in the oil market have been the largest move daily moves Since 1991 with the with the Gulf War that get that given indication of just how bad things are Turning our attention to equities Because of the kind of massive uncertainty and the kind of fear that we're going to head into kind of an oil price war We've seen the colossal move to the downside In equity markets essentially every sector has been has been hit and has been hit hard As you can imagine the oil and gas sector and all field services companies They've all been quit hit quite hard some of the mood you've seen on European equity indices I've been kind of the largest since 2000 nature in the financial crisis I'll give you an indication of just how bad things are in terms of The negative sentiment out there. I'll quickly run through the major events of the week ahead And then I focus on your focus on the on the charts Just because even though it is worth your while keeping an eye on corporate and economic news this week I think the macro theme of corona virus and that's associated health potential economic ramifications and the possibility of the kind of Oil price war that we seem to be in I think that's going to dominate the headlines for the next few days So in relation to the major events of the week the weekend article can be found that our insight on our website Cmsi markets calm under a new turn analysis. You'll find that here So tomorrow morning, we're gonna have French industrial production figures out Tomorrow, we'll have Dick's sporting goods for the court numbers out Tomorrow, we will have first full your full your figures from standard life Aberdeen On Wednesday, we will have the UK budget a Wednesday. We'll also have Full your figures from Balfour BT on Thursday We've a infiltrate decision from the European central bank keep in mind trainers are strongly are heavily pricing in The likelihood that the European central bank will lower the deposit rate By one tenth of one percent so further into negative rates In relation to We have fourth quarter figures from the gap. They're coming out on on Thursday on Thursday, we also have fourth quarter numbers out from slack technologies And finally, we'll afford your figures out from city world. I'll keep my own city world I thought a pretty rough ride recently There was kind of speculation that Think the the company Could be hit if it's kind of a lockdown and people are in relation to the coronavirus crisis Basically, if people stop going into large public spaces, you know, you know a cinema theater is a prime example of an area Which could be kind of the government could dissuade people from attending It is it is furious ramp up so city world of funnier numbers out That's going to be important in the context of the kind of the health crisis situation here in the UK at the moment starting off With the big indices I start off with the foot 700. So I give you so today's session We've fallen back to level the last scene in the summer of 2016 So basically we're back to levels last seen with the UK had its EU referendum vote It's at a colossal move to the downside on the on the foot 700 if you continue to press and lower from here We could be looking at targeting in around We could be looking at targeting in around We have back below six thousand we could be looking heading towards six thousand. Sorry apologies and back towards Prenches low as the lows of June 2016 in around in around Five thousand apologies there in around five thousand seven hundred twenty eight if we do have a snap back and You know, you could hold above the kind of six thousand mark Which were currently just above if you could hold above that we could look again retracing this gap here That was created overnight. So we could look at heading north up towards six thousand two hundred and sixty You can the top end of the scandal and then towards six thousand three hundred my apologies And if you go on higher from there We could then target this zone here potentially just north of six thousand four hundred, but keep in mind We're talking about levels that are fewer points away from the current area If we can if we can hold above six thousand that could be assigned that a bit of a bottom is Is is in formation? It is worth noting that the markets have been moving higher for that couple of hours But obviously it was the drill to the downside which really did the damage I'll take a look what's going over in Germany pretty brutal session over in Germany as well We're back to levels last seen Over a year ago. So talking about you know early 2019. So we're talking very much a painful start We can see here By the by the shape of this candle at the market has been pushing higher and try the try the trading session Cash trading has been going on for over two hours. So if we do kind of press on higher from here We could be looking at a retest in the kind of psychology board and a sorry 11,000 mark and if you go beyond that you could be looking up to head towards the top end of this candle 11,096 and then if you go north of that we could look to kind of fill this candle fill the gap rather that That was created between Friday's clothes and the Monday's open So we could then head potentially head back up towards 11,421 On the downside if the market then managed to turn over on itself and take out the recent lows The lows of this session it could take us back to this area here down around 10,000 10,277 I take a look now at the The cack in France very similar scenario here a brutal Brutal beginning to the trading session it gapped a gap for me lower at one point If I found two levels last seen In early 2019 so similar issue to the DAX that vein There's been a steady increase in negative momentum. So as a market driving lower We can see a steady increase in negative momentum So it seems that the control is in the hands of the of the bears for the time being So if we do press and lower from here because we're currently in around 4,778 if you press and lower from here we could be looking at our getting this zone here down around 4,555 If you do have a snapback we could look to you know retake 4,800 and if you go beyond that we could be looking at our getting this area here in around With this line this year in at 4,897 And then if you go beyond that we can then be looking at you back up towards the cycle as you bought in 5,000 mark and to go beyond that we could be looking at heading back down towards with this gap Bruce created in it 5,080 Now to give an indication of how bad things are US index futures are actually in limit down For those of you that don't know what that is It's essentially a circuit breaker breaker system that the futures exchange have in place essentially if markets Have this you know move in one direction or the other in this case down In excess of 5% the market just actually gets frozen and training stops It's a way of it's a way of especially slowing down potential market going into kind of either either Excessively rallying or this case excessively falling There's there's talk that that the at the trading of The likes of the Dow Jones the S&P 500 the Nasdaq 100 the Russell 2000 The last I saw there's a report going around saying that trading of those markets should reopen at 1330 GMT But even if the markets do reopen at that time, there's nothing to say that they can't just trade for a minute or a second and go back into limit down Unfortunately, this is just this is this is just a symptom of when you have chaotic markets the the the bands of the the bands of which the Future exchange set in place to kind of stop market sparring out of control in one direction or the other they can be hit and then Train just just gets frozen and unfortunately, that's just that but it's just a release. It just highlights how Uncertain how volatile things are Now we talked about the old price at the beginning of the update. I'll take a look now at the Brent crude oil we can see here that it's been already was in a fairly sizable decline 2019 a colossal gap to the downside was created the steady rise in negative momentum Brent crude oil in the cash market is currently trading in around 35 80 35 spot 80. So if you like to cut a press on lower from here on the oil market We could be looking at heading heading back down towards the lows that were seen in 2016 in around 27 6 27 13 Any snapbacks in the oil market could potentially run into resistance in around the kind of 40 level Big psychological number there and then if you go beyond that We could be looking at testing it towards kind of the lows of Friday in around or the close of Friday in around 45 spot 49 taking like a WTI Simplest duration here whereby the market was in pressing lower throughout the month message by 2019 had a colossal gap to the downside When training began between say between the close of play and Friday and the futures market reopening Late on Sunday night. So if you press and lower from here, we could be looking at retesting the lows of 2016 This zone here down around 25 spots 73 and if you can't snap back from here and claims Enclaims around we could be looking at retesting the highs To ask of this trading session in around 33 spots 62 And if you go beyond that we could then be looking at you know keeping that for 40 bucks to borrow Probably the next big kind of psychological number and if you go beyond that we could then be looking heading towards In around the kind of close of play on Friday Which is the summer in the region just just south of $41 a bar in around 40 spot 70 40 spot 97 there there about seems to be the lows of the Friday session. I take a look at a few currency pairs now So you had a major move to the downside all this fear and uncertainty in oil and stocks drove us Bond yields along with other government bond yields to record lows Did the massive move to the downside in US government bond yields has put colossal pressure on the US dollar? Hence how we're seeing a massive move to the upside in the euro versus the US dollar, you know I'm euro dollar rubber levels last seen in about and say there about About one year ago So your dollar is roughly at a one-year high the steady increase in positive momentum We're currently at one 14 spot 31 if you can press on higher from here We could really get track of in this area here the highs of early January or early to mid-January 2019 in at one spot 15 70 any snapbacks and let's face it if you have a market that moves This higher this aggressively you're gonna have a some bit of a correction or some of a snapback at some point Not to say the markup could be turned over on itself But it's difficult for markets to maintain this level of momentum So if you look to kind of pull back and a bit of a snapback We could see support coming to play in this zone here in a one spot 12 And even if you pull even if we move back below that we could see support cut from this red line here The tourney moving average notice all on a few occasions not to go it acted nicely as support So that metric has been important in the past it makes it more likely it'll be important in the future and that and that metric The tourney moving average comes into play in that one spot 10 Sorry one spot 11 10. I'll take a look now. What's going on on sterling dollar similar like I said It's been dollar weakness across the board. So even though between mid-December and Late February the broadly speaking a move to the downside in sterling dollar now We're seeing a bit of a rebound. We see to find a bit of a base in around here in a One spot 27 26 this area here, which conveniently just above the tourney moving average We've been pressing higher from here. If you get back above the 132 mark We could be licking a chart. We could be looking at targeting this area here the highs of late December in a one spot 32 84 If you do move a pullback, we could find some support from this yellow line here Waterday movie average. We can see that action as nicely as a support in the middle of February And that comes into play in what well just just shy of 130 one spot at 2990 So 130 itself is a big number and then of course one spot 2990 is the waterday movie average. So that zone in around here might provide some support Lastly, I take a look at dollar yen just because see Massive collapse massive sell-off in the US dollar has been a major flight towards the Japanese end It's deemed it's perceived to be a safe haven currency. So it's been a real double whammy for this currency pair We can see it just want a the size of the move that when it's over the light was just absolutely colossal So dollar yen is clearly in a very strong downward trend We're currently in at 102 spot 35 a break below 102 could take us back to Back to this price here In at 109 spot 19. If you do have a snapback in In dollar in in dollar yen, we could be looking at it back up towards 104 Our potential even towards the highs of this session in around 104 spot 62 And then if you go beyond that we could look to fill the gap Interact in this area here from a closing player the lows of Friday in around In around well close to 105 104 spot 99 Now I do I do appreciate this video went on a bit longer than the normal But obviously there's a lot of ground to cover. Thank you for tuning in. Please tune in next week Have a good training week and good luck