 The following is a presentation of TFNN. Big markets pick off with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good Thursday morning everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, company live from TFNN just after 9 a.m. eastern time on Thursday morning. We got about 24 minutes to go until the start of trading and you have markets off of the overnight lows but you're basically flat right now after quite an acceleration yesterday. We're talking about basically 100 points, folks, where we were coming into yesterday's Fed decision at about $3900. You got some volatility in both directions, man, but the trend is negative prices, folks, from $3920 down to $3766, folks. You're talking about, it was actually $3925. Okay. What is this? I got to do quick math, man. $125 plus $36. You're talking about 160 S&P points. What is that? 4%. You're talking about 4% the S&Ps. Is that right? That's right. Yeah. In my mind, it's tough to comprehend the accelerations, folks, from $3920 down to $3766. That is 160 S&P points. 160 would be 4% on a 4,000 point index. Man, crazy action. And right now, we're up a bit though. We're what? 43 points off of the lows. 1% off the overnight lows, but I wouldn't be too excited right now for those bulls out there, man, tough day yesterday in the markets. You almost got a slight reprieve for a moment, right? Markets traded lower on the initial announcement. You traded higher until the chairman started talking for a while, then the market reacted to lower prices. You had the Nasdaq 100 trade down about 600 points, folks. That's approaching 5% from the highs that we're at this morning. You're basically flat as well. The Dow up 53 points right now. Dow trades yesterday from 31,100 down more than 1,000 points. You almost got a 29,000 handle in the Dow. Excuse me. And the Russell, positive by one this morning, volatility everywhere, folks. You jump over to Bitcoin. There's a gap for you in the overnight session. Bitcoin almost makes it 20,000 yesterday, and we almost make it to 18,000 on the acceleration to lower prices. We jump over to crude volatility as well. Crude right now, catching a bid even since, look at that. That's eight minutes ago, man. Crude's up $1.50, charging higher. Crude traded lower yesterday with just about everything. Gold contracts right now. Gold actually caught a little bit of a bid yesterday. We're approaching those highs yet again up near 1690 in the gold contract. Now, gold, you take a look at gold on a longer-term basis, man, just chopping around towards the lower portion of this consolidation that gold has been in, you could say, for the better part of two years. Going back to June of 2020, when gold originally charged higher out of the COVID acceleration to lower prices, and where these lows actually rest, folks, we are right near that level. I've talked about it many times in the program. If you have not seen it yet, I'm talking about either you go back to March of last year, we are low in the 1670s. You go back to late March that year, lows in the 1670s. You fast forward to August, lows in the 1670s. You back it up to just July of this year, lows in the 1670s. Now, we got below that level though, folks. 1661 was the low last week. We got 1661 again, the low this week. We're right now at 1689. Now, you could make the case that maybe this consolidation area deserves to be a little bit lower. Maybe that's a fair representation, ticking the bottom lines in terms of the 1673 area. But as you can see, man, gold and some dicey areas broke just below that low, and we'll see if gold holds at 1688 right now. We jumped to notes and bonds. What do we got, folks? We got lower price and higher yield. That's going to be the first headline we kick off the program with. We're talking about a yield right now in the 10-year above 3.6%. How about it, man? Above 3.6%, the yield on the 10-year. Pretty remarkable when you look at it, man. And getting into things even further on the 15-minute, there was your volatility yesterday and so much for a spike, man. You spiked to 113.09. You get all the way up a full point to 114.09, and we give it all back and we're challenging those lows right now at 113.14, and the 10-year, the 30-year, pretty similar charting action. We're down to 129.15 right now. This thing's accelerating from almost 131, folks, and almost 131 at 7 in the morning, man. So we're talking about moves that are still happening right now even in the last couple of hours, man. They are happening right now as we speak. And we jump over to the VIX this morning. Still relatively calm, man. Think about the action that happened yesterday. Now, you had the VIX go from 25.50 to 28. But, folks, look at this chart. All we're doing is chopping around where we've been basically since last Friday. You take a look at the VIX on a daily basis. You just look at where we've been this year. Not really elevated to the levels that we've seen prior when you've seen some of those market lows, man. Every time we've seen a market low this year when we've exacerbated some of that selling for peak fear, peak premium that the market's charging, you're talking about almost 39 on the first sell-off. You're talking about almost 38 in February. You're talking about almost 37 in May, and you're talking about almost 35 in June. And meanwhile, we just got to 30 this time. Not even close to 35 as we approach in elevated VIX of 27.53, well off the high lows of 20 or so from where we were prior, though. All right. Let's jump to that headline as we kick things off. Bond yields rise. Now, we got central bank action all across the globe, man. The Federal Reserve signals steeper rate path of monetary policy, but you got Switzerland, Norway, the U.K. joining the tightening wave and the Yen has some action this morning as well. Two-year rates continue to push above 4%. I will pull up those rates. Let's see if we can even get it right now. Can I? Yeah. Two years around 4.1%. Folks, here they are. Let's start here. I just talked about the 10-year, 3.61%. How about the two-year? Almost 4.1%. Man, the five-year at 3.83, the 30-year is pushing 3.57%. I've written something yesterday. I think mortgage rates are going up to right now, 6.25%. 6.5%. Makes sense when you got this type of action going across the board. The policy for the Fed is set to continue until funds' levels reach either a terminal rate or a level of 4.6% at the end of 2023. There was no reprieve yesterday at all, folks. Back to the article on Bloomberg here talking about what we have going on. So the Bank of England delivered a second consecutive half-point interest rate hike in its battle to bring down inflation. Three officials there pushed for the institution to join its global peers in moving at an even quicker pace for the Bank of England. Now, the Bank of England, the move to 2.25% was backed by five of the nine members, including Governor Andrew Bailey, while one voted for a smaller move. It was the seventh increase in a row. Now, Bank of England is way ahead of the ECB, folks. The ECBs just joined the party with their first hike, and they will be hiking. We'll see how far they can go with their economy going on there. But let's get into some of those currencies as this market rolls over, man. We got the S&Ps now, negative by two real quick, putting it on a five-minute chart. We're coming right back down. Yeah, we had lows at about 7.30 this morning of about 37.92. Let's jump to some of those currencies. As we jump into this first break, the Azure Dollar Index, we spiked to 1.1181. We almost got 1.12, man. Remarkable. We were just at 1.0935 early Tuesday, and we're pushing 1.12. Now, we're pushing about 1.11 in the Dollar Index. We jump over to the Pound US Dollar. Now, I've been talking about the Pound, man. I've been talking about the Euro. You check it out. We're going to talk to our man, Kevin Hanks, when we get back. We'll talk about little currencies, a little markets. We'll talk about a little yen later in the program, because that is a break, folks. Stay tuned. We'll be right back. Vista Gold owns and operates the largest undeveloped gold project in Australia, the Mount Todd Gold Project. Vista Gold just completed their feasibility study, resulting in a 7 million ounce gold reserve. Vista Gold has all major permits approved and has retained CIBC Capital Market Assistance in evaluating alternatives and in completing an accreted transaction. Vista Gold trades on the NYSE American and TSX under the ticker symbol VGC. Vista Gold executing a strategy to create shareholder value. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything, from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at tfnn.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from Veteran Day Trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to. And you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. tfnn.com Educating investors Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago and the student has now become the master. 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Tfnn has been educating traders for more than 20 years, with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours, the Tiger's Den, available to all Tigers and Tigresses for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs to our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of tfnn.com. Welcome back, folks. We've got S&P Futures, negative by about three right now. You get the Dow Futures inching into the positive. Positive by three, Nasdaq 100, negative by 29. Let's jump over to our man, Kevin Hinks. Every trading day, folks, 12 noon Eastern time right here on Tiger TV, the TD Ameritrade Network with Fast Market. Your host, Kevin Hinks, Tom White, the TD Ameritrade Network. They walk you through the day's market action, folks. They got some great guests. They walk you through hypothetical trades. If you want to get into options, if you just want to understand options, great way to do it is watch their program, folks. Check it out. Kevin Hinks, good morning. Good morning, Tommy O'Brien. Crazy, interesting, fascinating markets we have going on right now. And, you know, Jerome Powell did what, you know, Jerome Powell needed to do yesterday, but that is basically tell the market that's waiting for the pivot in interest rates that it isn't coming anytime soon, Tommy. And what he basically said is there's 125 basis points, more of interest rate hikes coming by the end of the year. Well, let's do the math. That's another 75 and a 50 going till the end of 2022. So, Tommy, volatility is here to stay. A lot of people don't really know how to trade. They haven't traded markets where interest rates are going up. Unless you're older, you haven't seen a market like this. So, it's really interesting to watch this play out over time. Also, central bank activity all over the board, Bank of England, Switzerland, Japan in buying yen this morning. Taiwan, Norway, Indonesia, all moving interest rates in some way. Tommy, there's a lot going on today. Yeah, you bring it up, man, in terms of the volatility. I was born in 1980, Kevin, and I bring it up because I had savings bonds, man, that I cashed in, like, eight, maybe 10 years ago, and the yields on those savings bonds in 1980, man, that is my only exposure to these types of numbers, man. But I think they were pushing, like, 13, 16, 17 percent, something that we are not familiar with. I am not familiar. I'm not my only familiar with those numbers, but I bring it up because I'm using just... Now, let me be clear, Tommy, zero interest rates that we've had for all this time, that is a tax on the elderly and savers and people who focus on the bond market. That's been a tax on them for years. So, no one should think that interest rates going, the two-year going to 4 percent and the 10-year sitting at 3.6 is some egregious move in interest rates. It's not, right? So, this entire market, as we know it, is trying to get back to a more equilibrium level and some of it's a little painful, frankly. You make great points, man. I mean, I remember taking, you know, whether it was in high school, just talking about economics, talking about the cost of capital, talking about whether you either consume or you save, Kevin, right? Well, that's one thing. If you decide to save, then you're supposed to be saving so you can consume more in the future. That's supposed to be an interest rate, man. Can you talk briefly, Kevin, because I wasn't even going to go there, but you bring it up and it's a great point and I've asked you about it before. We have some real market pullbacks going on, but we have yields for the first time. Pretty attractive levels, man. Even on the two-year, the 10-year, I think is above 3.6 percent today and I asked you this question previously and for those that weren't watching, for those looking, whether you're looking at markets, whether you're looking at that fixed income yield and how in this type of environment where you have the S&P more than 1,000 points off of the highs, but now you have yields at an attractive level, where you are along the spectrum of an investor and I'm not talking about trading that you guys talk about, but would you be comfortable maybe just reiterating what you talked about in exchange or just retirement or investment needs? If you're young, if you're in your 20s and early 30s and just starting your family, your portfolio probably should have only a small amount of bonds and I don't know the exact percentage. Here's your right, Tommy. That's not my area of expertise, but if you're getting close to retirement and getting up there close, or in retirement, a big percentage of your net worth should be in the bond market and where you're getting those yields and the income is more stable. So, yeah, the transition a lot of people talk about 60-40, but as you get older it should be higher than that and now that rates are coming to realistic levels and yields, you're probably going to see a lot of interest in notes and buy time. You got a two-year note trading over 4%, 4.1%. That's a two-year. That has got to be extremely attractive to a lot of people, but remember, in the next from between now and the end of the year it might be higher than that. So, yeah, I mean, it's a lot interesting, you know, the good news is the yield, as you know it in the principle won't change, but the yield that you get on a future purchase may actually improve, so there's a lot going on and that competition between stocks and bonds and note yields is what's really coming into play here, Tommy. Yeah, I bring it up, Kevin, because I think not, and not for the first time, because we've, it's really this year, maybe for the first time in a while, as yields have been rising all year, they become more attractive, more attractive and now at levels that you can't help ignore it, man, in terms of where you are, very difficult in my mind if somebody's was retired and we're jumping around today, we're doing a portfolio management discussion, but it was very difficult in my mind, Kevin, to see the attractiveness level when you add yields at 1% or half during the COVID lows, or even at 2% or a percent and a half, where you're just keeping up with inflation at those levels, even in a normal healthy economy, not the case any more, man, with yields at 4% above 4%. We jump from that, we go on, Kevin, we have some companies out, but we're trailing off on earnings, but we still got some market action to say the least, some fundamental numbers out there this morning with jobs. What are you guys talking about on Fast Market at 12% today? You're right, Tommy, it's way for thin in terms of good names for earnings, but today we have two good ones, and that is Costco and FedEx. Now, FedEx is already pre-announced and a lot of the shock from their earnings is already in the stock, but that doesn't mean we can't trade it, and look, it's still got an expected move, it's still got event volatility, Costco very similar in that they release same source sales on a monthly basis, but we'll look at Costco and FedEx, and then in our third, we'll look at salesforce.com, a stock that's gotten pretty beat up, but hasn't upgrade the last, I think today, so we're going to trade Costco, FedEx, and salesforce.com. Salesforce, man, that's an interesting one, I jump back to FedEx. We talked about FedEx, I think it was Tuesday morning, that we referenced them, they were coming out, maybe it was yesterday morning, I got them up with the thinkorswim platform for the weekly options to expire on Friday, so you're going out basically through tomorrow. You got about a $6.82 move priced in, now, you talk about they already pre-announced, maybe you'd say well that's a big move, well guess what, FedEx man, what are they down, $10 from where it was Tuesday and you only have a $6 move priced in, so we got movement everywhere in this market whether you got earnings or not, and salesforce is always an interesting one, man, the cloud, they got some volatility well off their highs earlier as well. Kevin, we appreciate you taking the time as always, man, on a busy week, we look forward to the program today, we'll be watching at 12, and as I like to say over the weekends, man, it's going to be interesting to see, we don't talk to you on Friday, where are we going to be on Tuesday, man, we got how many days is that, that's three full trading days until I talk to you next, Kevin, so have a great weekend, I can't wait to talk to you Tuesday, man. We'll probably be somewhere different, Tommy, we'll see that. You heard it folks, turn it to an in fast market today, Kevin, thanks, man, have a great one, folks, check it out today, you heard it, three great stocks, FedEx, Costco, and Salesforce, FedEx and Costco, with their numbers, you take a look at Salesforce, man, if you liked it at 311, you're going to love it at 147, less than a year later. Stay tuned, folks, we'll be right back for the open. 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For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com Welcome back folks. We've got markets open and you open in negative territory. You're looking at an S&P right now, negative by 9 points, 37.96 all the markets into the red just that quick. NASDAQ 100 coming into the open when I was getting ready for the show folks we were almost 100 points higher than where we were trading at. I'm talking about getting ready for the show 15 minutes prior to coming to the air folks. In the last 45 minutes you just have the NASDAQ 100 trade down 100 you're going to get volatility in both directions today man. Probably telling you something that you already know but keep in mind do not get married to positions keep your stops in place man with a market that's moving this quick. Crude up $2.77 we'll get the gold contract catching a little bit of a bid up $11 we're going to jump to the end in a moment and check out the moves in the 10 year and the notes and bonds it's not stopping right now folks these going to update these that I had trying to see if these yeah these are updating these rates I think automatically because we get the 10 year now 3.65 and you get the two year above 4.1% wild stuff the yield in the 10 year continuing to rise let's jump around to some of the currencies we'll end up at the end but let's jump to the dollar first dollar pushing 111 right now at $110.92 I've been talking about the pound US dollar whoops there's the pound yen of course that's going to have movement today when we get the yen with an intervention for the first time since 1998 I think it said here's your chart of the pound US dollar okay we'll put it on let's put it on a daily going back for a while and zoom in on this trend we've had basically since this year now I've talked about it before we get the pound basically chopping around towards the bottom portion of this line Bank of England I think they're a 2.25 or 2.5 they just hiked by 50 basis points today they're well ahead of the ECB so you could see the play here folks that you're going to get a little bit more pound strength versus you're going to get Euro strength Euro's in big trouble I'm going to pull that up next okay um yen's in big trouble too but pound versus Euro pound it might be the stronger one to keep your eye on both of them though well defined channel lines to the downside there's your action in the US dollar and look what's happened man I've been talking about that it's up towards the top portion of that channel line folks this is not rocket science okay doesn't mean it always works but if you are trading the Euro dollar keep your eye on that channel line man because we just hit the top portion of that and this is a daily okay there's your 15 minute we almost touch it to the tick and then you trade down basically two full points from a dollar to 98 we've got a little bit of a bid let's see on a Fibonacci basis how far we've popped not quite to a 382 maybe look at that our man Larry Pezzavento right boom we bounced to a 382 on the Fibonacci boy we ever got another leg lower folks you're talking about a two point leg that would bring us from 99 to 97 in the Euro US dollar and we jump over to the yen you want some action man how about the yen trading down five full points from 145.89 to 140.34 there's your daily chart now we haven't even pulled back folks now this tick here on September 13th is erroneous okay that tail does not exist if we just trade a 382 you're still talking about 139 that's a natural pullback in a possible intact trend I'm gonna sneeze excuse me okay and let's see what's driving the action and you got intervention over in Japan man we jump over the headline bank of Japan yeah 1998 intervenes to support the yen for the first time since 1998 that was shortly after I was over in Japan very fortunate I had taken Japanese in high school very fortunate there as well I was able to take an exchange trip stay with the family in Japan absolutely amazing people so kind to me when I stayed there for a month I was only 15 or 16 years old I think it was the summer after my sophomore year that I was over there sophomore year but amazing experience to go over there and at the time to give you a quick glimpse so at the time Japan was on fire in terms of when I went over there early I think I started taking Japanese in 1992 in seventh grade you had to take a language I was at my school in middle school in high school very fortunate they offered at the time you had to take a language I think they had Spanish French or Japanese decided to take Japanese probably regret it which I took Spanish ended up living in Florida and Japan ended up not taking over the world financially as many thought was possible at the time but it was a cool language to take at the time the thing is that the program was so new that and the language is very difficult that you went through six years of it you learned a lot of culture you were not as proficient as if you went through six years of French or Spanish where most kids were basically fluent by the end of high school if they studied it all Japanese not the case and unfortunately I forget like most of it or a lot of it because I haven't used it in oh man this one's a tough one since 1998 the year I graduated high school so that's that's pretty wild man so you forget a lot of something when you don't use it for 24 years folks as crazy as that is I got my 25th high school reunion coming up how crazy is that for a moment we could spend a whole show on that okay we jump back to the market this is a big one Japan intervened to prop up the end for the first time since 1998 after its central bank sparked further declines in the currency by sticking to ultra low interest rates as its global peers hiked so the bank of Japan they stuck with low interest rates that's why their currency is getting destroyed versus global currencies out there the yen was pushing above 145 and then you had the top currency official said Thursday the government was taking quote-unquote decisive action the intervention shows that the prime minister's government has reached the limit of its patients after the yen tumbled around 20% against the dollar this year hedge funds have kept adding short bets on the end there seems to be no pre-repeat in sight now we'll see if this turns things or if it's just slowing the tide as they say the question now is whether the unilateral action will work with the currency already pairing gains within hours I think they went in solo but they can't do so without at least informing the US and they can't really stem the tide by themselves folks if they really want to change the yen slide as a trend I think the government needs to get its act together with the bank of Japan but guess what folks you see the bounces that you have going on in this yeah you traded below 141 and just like that you were back above 143 now here's what was said the government is concerned about excessive moves in the foreign exchange markets and we took decisive action just now with the top banking official right whatever his official name is in there top currency official is how they say it Masato Kanda is their name we're seeing speculative moves behind the current sudden and one-sided moves in the foreign exchange market ordered up by the ministry of finance sounds like a ministry from an evil plot of a movie the ministry of finance deals with risks if it fails to scare off speculators hedge funds have been adding to bearish bets on the currency with Goldman Sachs warning it may decline all the way up to 155 now it's interesting how currencies work right in terms of declining is going up here okay because that is how many yen it's going to cost you to buy a dollar right so it used to just cost the Japanese 131 yen to buy a dollar it was costing them 145 yen the other way to say that is one dollar is buying you 145 yen right now versus it used to just buy you 132 now it's to 141 Goma was talking about maybe 155 we had we talked to Teddy Kegstad every Wednesday he writes a great report folks the Tiger 4x report he has been calling this thing great to the upside and if you want to check out our interview that's right on our YouTube page just there YouTube see where the end goes back at Japan finally stepping in as it was pushing 146 this morning markets continue to roll over stay tuned folks we'll be right back you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts you might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you 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visit directioninvestments.com a funds prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal and to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor for side fund services LLC this program is brought to you by Vista Gold traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ welcome back folks we get the markets continuing to roll low we get the S&Ps now to add down 22 points putting it back to a 5 minute chart it's been a drop off man since about just right before I came on the program now pre-market you were up to the highs as high as 38-33 and that was at about just prior to 5 a.m. eastern time you were as high as about 38-20 though and that was just before I came on the program folks we're talking about almost 40 we're talking about basically a full percent we've traded lower since just coming on the air now the NASDAQ 100 you've given up about 150 points you've given up almost 200 points from where you were overnight for the highs and we're coming into some dicey area you're only about 50 points away from yesterday's low in the NASDAQ 100 and what are we talking about right now we're talking about almost 20 points away from the low that we were at overnight at about 9 o'clock all these markets down right now similar territory you're only 135 points away from 29,000 handled now let's jump over to commodities crude catches a bit as this is happening up to 85-65 gold only positive $5 interesting what's going on with the yen gold does catch a little bit of a bid okay but maybe the market is saying that the yen is going to remain weak for an extended period of time as gold continues to find a bid versus the dollar which sometimes can really drive the action there we jump over to the 10-year you just broke to lows on the 10-year right now as well and you're talking about a yield right now in the 10-year above 3.65% what's going to happen with mortgages mortgages are going to 65 7% potentially yeah we might see a 112 handle as I just watched this thing I mean you put this thing on a one-minute chart since 9 o'clock when I got on the show folks we're down almost a full point we were trading at 113.26 and we might get a 112 handle by the time I get off the show as we're only four ticks away okay I jump around to what else we have going on and this one just a cool one in general not Robin Hood no no no where are we going yeah we're going to this one I love this James Webb telescope and everything it's showing us about the universe folks you could spend forever going over some of this stuff but check out Neptune okay new images in Neptune I got a couple articles here check out NASA's latest image of the bands around Neptune I mean some of these images folks look at this look at those rings and that's our you know planets it is wild stuff what's happening with this telescope you should check it out Neptune typically appears blue attributed to methane in the atmosphere but pictures from the web's infrared camera show the planet white in color the new photo shows thin lines of beautiful light around Neptune here we go which NASA says are high altitude of methane ice clouds right crazy and those reflect the sunlight pretty remarkable the images are going to keep coming out of the universe if you ever think you understand it all folks I don't know how you think you understand it all with everything going on because there's something going on I think about who understanding at all that's a tall order with everything out there okay what else do we have going on so the SEC they're not going to ban payment for order flow they had flow to the possible prohibition in sweeping an overhaul regulator way weighing ways to push more trading to exchanges nonetheless it's not going to happen you had Robin Hood higher see how they're doing yeah you give back some of that gain still up about 5% Robin Hood I mean check it out right you want to you want to talk about Robin Hood Struggleman Robin Hood is just back to where it was yesterday afternoon it's just back to where it was yesterday morning meanwhile the news is out that their entire basically business plan won't be banned overnight which was possible what would what would happen you know they would have had a tough order man if they were not able to payment for order flow but they're going to stop show to banning it and it's proposing new rules for the quote-unquote $48 trillion American equities market but that was a lot of deliberation that marks a win for brokers to get paid for processing rights although the SEC may still enact other changes that make the practice less profitable we'll see what they come out with I guess and how that thing sorts out there's arguments to be made on both sides where the actual reality falls probably somewhere in between as usually the truth lies somewhere in between on most cases not always not always to size not to everything okay but usually it does now talking about the Fed lifts the forecast for Fed hikes on Powell's hawkish signal talking about where they are they now expect the Fed 75 in November 50 in December okay that's pretty much what the Fed said so yes that's what they're going to talk about 25 in February for peak rate of four five to four seven five previously they were looking for four to four and a quarter seems like this is the natural progression that's basically just what the Fed did right but it's happening in terms of where they are and they're talking about Kevin Hanks referenced it man a point and a quarter point points before the year end now what I will say is folks markets get ahead of everything okay they are going to price in everything they know while we know this now this should be priced in to a certain degree okay it's going to be priced in with the probability of it occurring so let's say there's a 90% probability that the Fed hikes by a point and a quarter by the end of the year well 90% of that's going to be priced in just like if there's a merger going on or a takeover right the price appreciates closer to that level the higher the probability of that occurring the point I'm making I think you can clearly understand that there's a lot of this that's already priced in as we see rates to three six okay so where does that rollover take place we talked about with Teddy Kakes dad a little bit yesterday not sure when it takes place but it will take place all right I don't think we're there yet because the numbers need to indicate that in some capacity because all the Fed is doing is telling you where they're going in the near-term future just think we're going to go up a point and a quarter okay by the year end we got two meetings they're probably going to go 75 and 50 just like Goldman says why not right you wouldn't back end it you'd friend ended to get the most impact of the hike and you'd probably go 75 again since they went 75 this time well what happens to the data that we're getting by the year end I mean we still need to get September October and November data you're talking about inflation you're talking about retail sales you're talking about a time when potentially things are really starting to hit in terms of you know FedEx coming out with certain numbers that they're tanking that may be indicative of some things maybe indicative of certain things just going on a FedEx as well but boy these hikes folks they're coming quick so we have jobless claims this morning 213,000 folks that is in normal times that is a very very healthy economy continuing claims still hovering your historically low levels okay this is not what carnage looks like have to keep reiterating it because there's it's human nature to tell yourself and convince yourself of maybe what you want to believe which is the S&Ps have traded down with a thousand points we know a lot about what's coming maybe a lot of this is factored in if inflation persists the Fed has some room here to keep going the market will not like it okay the Fed has some room to keep going they are forecasting we're going to see that happen as in we're going to see inflation we're going to see unemployment right rise to what 4.5, 4.3 we're going to see unemployment where it's going to affect potentially a million people we're going to lose their jobs versus where we are right now that's not happening yet though okay so those numbers still need to come we're still 213,000 people very healthy economy on a weekly just churn of initial unemployment claims stay tuned folks we've got one more segment we'll be right back you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices. Get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman in your inbox every day. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. tfnn.com. Educating investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything, from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at tfnn.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from Veteran Day Trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to, and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos, and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. tfnn.com. Educating investors. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com. Welcome back, folks. We've got the S&Ps right now, negative by 27 points. It's been a straight drop since about 8.45 a.m. this morning. We're now just right back to where you were at about 3 a.m. Eastern time, and you're within about 15 points of the lows we made overnight in the S&Ps. NASDAQ 100, we're negative by about 120. That's a full percentage right now, and you're within about 40 points of where you were below the levels you were at at about 3 in the morning last night. We jumped to commodities, crewed up about 2 bucks. We just traded down a dollar, though, from where it was at 86. You jumped to gold up about $6, 1981, talking a little bit of Russia. Yeah, in any other world, this would be the daily focus in terms of the geopolitical tensions that are ratcheting up, whether it's Russia, whether it's China going on as well. But now you have, whether you have protests, and just a couple I wanted to bring up here, man. And this is just a tweet from Ian Bremmer up here, but talk about the airport. I mean, you're seeing the news reports, folks, but check out the airport. Russian airports in KS this week, I think they even stopped allowing men to even buy tickets. They sold out instantly. I can't blame them, man, getting out of there. I do not want to be drafted by Mr. Putin and put into his war, and I'm sure many people feel the same way. I mean, you look at this, I was just going through his feed. A friend shared this into one of the group chats I was in talking about a sad situation for the Russian people over there as they were getting forced into that war. Searches for how to break an arm surge in Russia today, anything to get out of combat. Unfortunately, yeah, I would say many people making some tough choices over there in Russia going on as things ratchet up. And how do you see the end of what's going on over there? From a humanity standpoint, that's a conversation that you go forever. From a market perspective, it's going to cause more volatility. There's the commodities that play into everything, and I don't see how that ends anytime soon to any degree when Putin makes it increasingly difficult for there to be any type of a deal, which is probably the best way to get out of that situation. Markets, man, dicey scenario. We got yield spiking, folks. Let's finish it up with a 10-year. Why not as we hit 113 on the dock? Can we get a 112 in the 10 seconds that we got to end the program? Maybe that will wait for our man, Basil Chapman, coming up next, folks. Thanks for starting your trading day with me. Basil's up next, folks. Stay tuned. Have a great Thursday, everybody.