 Good morning and welcome to CSIS. I'm Andrew Schwartz senior vice president for external relations I'm happy to have you all here this morning in advance of the president's trip to India next week And I'm very pleased to introduce my colleague Rick Ross out who's our Wadwani chair in India studies and Or in US India policy studies and Rick is one of the top experts in the world in India He's one of the only people I know who travels there Americans who travels there as frequently as he does and he's really plugged into What's going on and we've been talking about this trip? For weeks in advance, and I know you'll benefit from his expertise. So with that, I'll leave it to Rick We'll do some opening remarks Rick will talk for a bit and then we can go to your questions and when we go to your questions, please Identify yourselves with the microphone on you can just press this button When to talk and then press it again when you're when you're done, it'll be helpful for the transcript. Thanks again Great. Thanks Andrew. Well, let me first touch on a little bit of background Not on background. You can this is perfectly okay to be quoted but For the for the relationship leading up to the visit, you know, I think if we look at The relationship, you know, we started closely after India's independence with actually very strong relations Which people kind of forget most people look only back to the time of the Cold War and say that relations had been strained But actually at the time of India's independence President Franklin Roosevelt was one of the strongest supporters for India's independence and at every turn was pressing Winston Churchill to make the decision Partially to of course release the baggage that Great Britain was carrying as World War two was was fully in play After independence the United States was one of the strongest supporters both financially in other ways to try to help India Make its way through, you know, some of the debilitating social issues they faced mass famines things like that But it was during the Cold War that the United States made some strategic decisions I think that really kind of pulled the United States in any different directions We saw the break between China and the Soviet Union as an opportunity to encourage our relationship with China and For India which in 62 had fought a border war with China. That was a that was a difficult decision to swallow And also Pakistan's commitment to help the United States during the Cold War both for for intelligence purposes and other You know that again was was one of India's strategic rivals that the United States for other reasons Chose to cozy up with So, you know, it started off with really a development focus And relations became strained in the latter part of the the Cold War In the 1990s as India began to liberalize the economy That's when you saw a second leg of American interest beyond the development community That's when the business community first began to take a serious look and think that indeed India could become a great and vibrant market That I think the the more recent transition which took started to take place just over a decade ago was when America's strategic community woke up and thought well, this is a big rising country and Aligned values and we would certainly like to have stronger relations with India There were specific signals that got sent between the US and India that really I think helped create this line of thinking And showed what was possible. I mean first of all, we can't ignore the 1998 nuclear tests That's when the strategic community woke up and said India is now a much bigger player on the map when we think about the strategic players in Asia and beyond So then we make the decision. Do you ignore India? Do you shun India or do you try to develop relations with the nuclear-powered India? And of course, we chose to develop relations And and again specific signals that the two countries had sent to show that they were ready to think differently about the relationship For the United States, it was supporting India during the 1999 war that they had with Cargill with Pakistan and Cargill Which really was the first time the United States has come down clearly Supporting India in one of these one of these wars that they faced with Pakistan On the other side, you know shortly after President Bush was elected. He announced his first major foreign policy initiative People sort of forget that there was a foreign policy before 9-11, but for President Bush it was creation of this missile defense shield talking up tearing up international treaties and Trying to create this thing that we felt we had the technology to do And India was one of the first countries to come out and support the United States in this endeavor So President Bush of course had an interest in encouraging relations with India at the get at the get-go But for India to come out and support the United States in this missile defense shield endeavor It was was a huge thing for this side and thus led to the 2004 signing of the next steps in strategic partnership Where we laid out our intention to share with India some of the Technologies that we had thus far withheld whether it was nuclear or defense or otherwise And then a year later the announcement of our intention to share certainly nuclear technology So the strategic community was the more recent one. I think to to come on board You know since then I think in the 2005 to 2008 period as we were negotiating the nuclear agreement After that, I think we've seen kind of a bit of a decline in our relationship In 2010 India's Parliament passed the nuclear liability law that we believe precludes American involvement in sharing nuclear technology essentially Leaving liability if there is a mishap on cat So for companies to enter an arrangement sharing nuclear technology when you don't know what the damages could be It's a it's a difficult decision to make So the fact that we felt India could not conclude its end of the bargain on the nuclear deal Really let down folks on this side When we think about the strategic upside for the relationship And then the latter years of the Congress led up a government. There were a number of economic decisions made Short-sighted economic decisions to try to keep jobs to try to slow down imports because India has a large trade imbalance And this also impacted the business community. And so I think especially here from Washington We've seen a pretty sustained campaign in the last number of years on patent issues on local manufacturing rules and on cross-border taxation That have really been dominating the narrative. So the strategic community in 2010 with the liability law Lost a lot of interest and the business community also became pretty incensed by some of these economic measures As we led towards the the election last year I think we also everybody saw that the BJP was was rising becoming quite strong and likely to win the election And at least among the US government it would cause some consternation. We weren't exactly sure because in 2005 We'd revoked mr. Modi's visa We'd withheld a senior level engagement with with mr. Modi as he was chief minister of the state of Gujarat So the thought of a Modi victory, we weren't quite sure what that would mean in terms of the relationship And I'll tell you for my personal interactions with senior members of the BJP And other groups that are aligned with the BJP They would say the same thing they would say look Prime minister Modi wants a strong economy and a strong defense and these are things that we know the United States can be a good partner on But he's gonna walk want to walk that very slowly because of the visa withdrawal because of the ban on high-level engagement Well, he wins the election the first party in 30 years to win a majority the first time the BJP has ever won a majority in Parliament and He immediately is prepared to engage the United States in a bigger way than I think most of us had envisioned just days prior to the election So let bygones be bygones And let's start moving forward on the areas that we believe there's a shared interest and potential for cooperation So, you know, some people point to the president's visit to India as exciting because it's the first time a president has visited India twice while in office But actually, I think the bigger narrative is the fact that we're having this much engagement so soon in the Modi administration Now some say, you know that that President Obama himself, you know, that I Kind of point to the Asia pivot, you know, and I say that we actually pivoted to India Before we announced the Asia pivot, right? The next steps in strategic partnership the nuclear agreement All right, these are things that you would consider to be part of a dramatic pivot and it was a pivot to India before it was a pivot to Asia And because of the inability to conclude the nuclear agreement We sort of pivoted away from India at the time that we announced the pivot to Asia So it's been a little bit out of cycle. I think with the broader pivot But now I think that India has raised his hand and said we're ready to talk about strategic interests again and shared shared interests It feels that India is back in line I think with the with the broader Asia pivot and in fact may become one of the one of the cornerstones now so Since Modi's election You know, you still see a lot of concerns and complaints from the business community that they're not moving fast enough on reforms But you know, I always try to focus on the real numbers and last year and they only have the numbers through November So we're still waiting for December foreign direct investment into India last year was up 27% And foreign institutional investment passive portfolio investment was 43 billion dollars last year an all-time record That's up from just 10 billion dollars the year before So when you talk about the business community's interest in India The numbers already show that there's a dramatic spike from what it was just a year before So 2014 was a pretty good year for business relations But still some of the sentiments about we want to see reforms. We want to see things move faster Would kind of lead you to believe that the business community is not satisfied But I always I always follow the numbers rather than press releases and the numbers are pretty good So we we think that there's a lot of a lot of upside and So, you know leading up to I think a lot of us were pretty surprised at the fact that the president had agreed and Via Twitter to to return to India and to be the chief guest for Republic Day on on January 26th so now transitioning a bit to the to the president's visit, you know, again, I think the real story is the fact that So much engagement with the Modi government has happened rather than just the fact that our president has visited India twice in office That's certainly a great story But but it is I think surprising to see How much India has been willing to engage us is probably the bigger story than than than the opposite The agenda for the visit like everybody keeps asking me what's the agenda the agenda is Gonna flow from the joint statement from September They spent a lot of time and energy by Secretary Kerry was in India just before that for the strategic dialogue And then Modi's visits the United States in September So the the joint statement that came out of the meeting in September, you know, that's the agenda the question is What kind of progress are you going to be able to show on that agenda and the joint statement? I mean if you haven't studied it in detail You know, a lot of it sounds broad and ambiguous And everybody's always hungry for like what's that big deliverable and why didn't they announce a thing? But it sets the table for some new areas of cooperation that frankly for the strategic community Get people pretty interested and excited In the joint statement, I'll point to three things in particular that the United States and India agreed to in the joint statement cooperation on denuclearizing North Korea Never before in a head of state joint statement that I've seen did they talk about something like that They talked about shared interest in the rise of instability in West Asia ISIS Iraq Syria They talked about cooperating in insuring a stable and prosperous South China Sea region and That too, you know, you talk about these areas. I mean How many Indian citizens wake up in the morning and are concerned about a North Korean nuclear device falling on their heads? I'd say the number zero But the fact that they're willing to engage on issues like this show that the Modi government and and we don't yet know What what form this is going to take but the fact that they're talking about these issues and willing to engage us on them That's when we start to think about India as a regional global provider as a global provider of security The fact that they're willing to engage on issues that are beyond their border and beyond their today interests is it's very exciting And so with the strategic community, this gets people very much Interested to see what the upside could be so the agenda was part of the joint statement after the September meetings And so now we're all looking forward to see what specifically Progress can be announced and seen during these meetings I will point out too because again, everybody always wants to point to deliverables We we live in the shadow of the nuclear agreement announcement in July 2005 It's difficult to foresee any kind of announcement being as important as what happened in 2005 And any other announcement that we make no matter how great it sounds is always going to pale in comparison to that one I mean to break open the global non proliferation regime to let India in That's a that's a once-in-a-lifetime kind of thing. So I think we're always going to be limited by the fact people are going to walk away disappointed because it's difficult to imagine something quite that big But still, you know, there's there's a few broad categories Where we think there's opportunity for things to come out of these meetings and I'll share a few of those right now defense deals we got a number of defense deals that are kind of teed up and pending and Some of these, you know, we may see specific announcements during the visit Also related to defense we're talking about Co-production co-development co-production of defense systems. This is part of the defense trade technology initiative DTTI It's actually one of my I'd say proudest moments of my government too You look back to those days when strategic interest here started to decline One of the factors in that too was India had this massive medium multi-role combat aircraft the MMRCA bid and we had the F-16 the F-18 put forward as a couple of platforms for India to consider and When India in 2011 moved to the final round of bidding on that both the American platforms were we're not taken through the final round and You know, I'll be I'll be quite frank Our support for India with the nuclear deal and other things we'd hoped would unlock Some of these major defense deals including MMRCA and the fact that they didn't go with an American platform You know, some people took as as you know slapping the face But what did the Department of Defense do? Did they go back to the Pentagon and say I'm not going to talk to India again for a thousand years? No, the next year they launched the Defense Trade Technology initiative, which had two main thrusts one was To figure out how our sales and India's procurement procedures could be better aligned and then the second was to offer some some some Some defense equipment for potential co-production co-development upgrade So a great time and Deputy Secretary Ash Carter led that initiative and India is very excited to see his name put forward as the potential next defense secretary So with the Defense Trade Technology initiative, we've offered India India more than a dozen systems potentially for co-production co-development Now this has been paralyzed ever since this process began because You know, what what the United States had offered was things that we felt we could actually get approved for export So it's things that were a bit of a stretch, but nothing unreasonable Now for India that meant that well what in what the United States is offering us under DTTI Probably isn't better than something that I could already buy on the open market from other countries right now So both sides had a perfectly valid view on this for us. We wanted something that we could actually get approved that would set in process our Ability to approve other stuff later on if it went well and for India. They wanted better stuff immediately which other countries were willing to offer So the question is can they can they can they break this log jam? leading up to the president's visit and actually get a few of these Projects unstuck and officially announced for to move forward with co-development co-production That would be a big deal. We put a lot of time and energy into this process DTTI I understand that India has also come back with some thoughts on other programs. They would like to work on So hopefully we'll get some announcements under DTTI as well The third under defense a lot of defense stuff is renewal of our expiring 10-year defense framework agreement You know, this doesn't expire until June so to me it feels really early to look at a January renewal date for it but You know it's being talked about pretty actively and if it's just going to be a straight line renewal of the existing because both heads of state I've already agreed that they wanted to renew this agreement So I think if they're looking for a straight line renewal and the agreement itself is quite broad if you read the agreement It just it talks about broad pin principles of cooperation rather than specifics So a simple renewal would actually, you know keep open the opportunity to collaborate in a wide range of fronts So that's another that that may be up for for January though personally I wouldn't be surprised if that gets held off a little bit longer since it doesn't actually expire till June nuclear liability as Ambassador Frank Wissner used to call Keeping India out of the nuclear club. This was the cinder in the eye a nuclear liability remains the cinder in the eye of the relationship right now Nuclear cooperation really people talked about as the high-water mark for all the things we've talked about in our bilateral history And the fact that that India's nuclear liability law precludes American involvement It stings and and I think the announcement in September of establishing a formal contacts group Really a tiger team to work on this issue only There's a variety of proposals that have been, you know kind of floated out there I think the the one that's talked about most actively now is whether India will formally offer an insurance product to foreign suppliers Earlier, you know, there was some discussion to that India's nuclear power developer and PCIL Could actually absolve suppliers of downstream liability But I think most companies looked at that weren't quite sure that would hold up in in a court of law later on But if the contacts team is able to figure out a workaround solution That's a step forward if they're not able to find a workaround solution And they can say there is no workaround except going back to the liability law and making an amendment Then at least we'll know that that's the option and there's back in the Modi government's table Do you want to risk the slings and arrows of going back to Parliament and amending the law which you know They may have a majority in the lower house of Parliament, but the BJP only has about 19% of seats in the upper house and You know, it's 30 years post the the horrors of the Bhopal tragedy. So it's a difficult issue to pick up So if the context if the contact group is able to find a workaround on liability Great, if they're able to point and say that the only option is to amend the law, then at least we'll know that as well The last under possible deliverables and this is one I think that's gotten the most attention lately is on climate change Especially just post the the China deal And I mean, I'm sure there's gonna be questions about that My personal feeling on that will be able to do some nice small and medium-sized things on climate change But I think big and powerful things where India agrees to you know Cut straight line of missions or something along those lines even at a point in the future is difficult to foresee You know India right now is attempting to go through a major industrial phase They lag way behind most other countries of their size and scale in terms of industrialization and So I think for India to commit to specific measures today when they don't know what the upside of industrialization could look like It's gonna be very difficult But you know you look at some of the things I mentioned already particularly nuclear Collaboration that's one of the areas that would be you know low emissions and so if we get that done I think that would qualify at least as a Pretty good win in the the climate change column, but But we can touch on that a little bit more as well Just covering a couple of things lastly is apart from you know what those what I mentioned there in terms of possible deliverables You also hope that we'll get a little more definition on what some less tangible Areas of collaboration might look like for instance, you know I mentioned on on with the you know, West Asia The rise of extremism West Asia South China Sea North Korean nuclear are we gonna get a little more definition on what our collaboration of those things might look like? That would be terrific, especially West Asia. It's on everybody's minds right now With the US or would India consider sending troops? It's difficult to imagine that I'm sure you know that gets raised But returning militants questioning them sharing intelligence. These are all things that are that are pretty appropriate and feasible Are we gonna restart our talks on the bilateral investment treaty? I'm a huge supporter of that I think an investment treaty especially as the United States looks at such a robust trade agenda with the rest of the world TPP t-tip Trading services agreement India's not a party to any of these and so we're about to establish new lines of trade That are gonna completely go around India and he's gonna be like the rock sticking out of the water So I hope at least an investment treaty will tie our economies together in a more formal sense Are we're gonna find some small pockets of funding for individual projects, you know We've committed to helping India develop three smart cities. There's a variety of these other projects You know that if we find small but meaningful ways to contribute then I think that'll go over extremely well The last thing I'll mention then open it up for questions is There is one other issue of course and I've talked about this mostly from the American perspective But there's one other issue that I'm sure the president is going to be queried down Pretty heavily I'm finding that concern in India about America's continued support for Pakistan is growing to a level that I haven't seen in well over a decade and I just I spent most of December in India running around to university groups seven cities over three weeks and It was surprising to me specifically among India's youth and and not just the policy elites the policy elites, I think You know, they they sort of understand to some extent that we're probably not going to change what we do with Pakistan We may tweak it a little bit But support for Pakistan, you know, probably doesn't get brought up as often recent in recent years Among policy elites, but among the Indian public because they've seen increased provocations at the border Because they're concerned about America's drawdown in Afghanistan Will release militant groups in Afghanistan and India's concern that that will result in more cross-border terrorism on themselves So I think I think there's a lot of really tough concerns on our relationship with Pakistan that might get brought up for the president Personally, I don't necessarily think that there's a dramatic change in our stance with Pakistan that that the United States would and should embark on You know, I think if you look at how we view our relationship right now We believe that, you know, support for the military and other projects in Pakistan gives us a level of access In Islamabad and Rawalpindi that absent that We've got no hold whatsoever And I think right now too the the campaign that the Pakistan military is conducting in north Waziristan Has been a really big deal and and doesn't get as much attention in India as I think it should You know the Pentagon's most recent Afghanistan status report Actually note specifically that the campaign of Waziristan has actually slowed down cross-border terrorism into Afghanistan Which you know is certainly of interest to American interest in Afghanistan But India's as well because India is one of the largest donor nations to Afghanistan So Pakistan is a tricky one. I'm sure it's going to be brought up pretty pretty actively You know, will we commit to actions against terror groups based in Pakistan Will we press Pakistan even harder to give up terrorists that were implicated in the Mumbai attacks things like that? so certainly both sides have a lot of things that they're going to want to talk about during these set of meetings and Try to lay it out what I think are some of the some of the big pictures But happy to take on whatever questions you have as much as I can and you know Bear in mind the White House still has not released The the final minute by minute schedule of where the president's going to be and things like that So there's there's limitations, but happy to answer as much as I can. Thanks. Thank you, Rick Christie Christie can you hit the microphone? Yes, Christie Parsons from the LA Times in Chicago Tribune To follow on your what you were just saying about Pakistan is what message does it send that the president is going to India without going to Pakistan? Does that send an intentional message and do you have any idea if anyone in Pakistan even cares? Yeah, they'll they'll care they'll care a lot. They did just get secretary Kerry Kerry went to India and then he went to Pakistan just afterwards And I think it does send a very powerful message to Pakistan that the president is only going to India You know, I remember we were talking a little bit about when President Clinton went to India in 2000 and he went to Pakistan afterwards and what a Incredible exercise that was just to get the president of the United States to visit Pakistan As I recall they they they they wouldn't announce it. They only went to the airport I think they had some fake Air Force ones flying into other airports. Yeah, I mean, so it is also, you know Security exercise of tremendous scope to get the president to to Pakistan So see I think Pakistan will be disappointed by that But at the same time they just just get a visit by the Secretary of State So I don't think we're gonna have a lot of heartburn on our side Knowing that we just touch base for with our US Pakistan strategic dialogue meetings in in in Pakistan So do you think it's strictly a security decision on the part of the US not to go to Pakistan? Not not strictly security. I think the scope for upside partnership with India is dramatic So so I think you know the the level of conversations that you can have with India about India specific about You know Indian investments coming back to the United States about joint Cooperation in the region just the scope of things that you can talk about with India so much broader that You know You think about where the president is going to spend time and India clearly has got a lot of big things on the table that We care about climate change is certainly part of that as well for this president Is Pakistan going to be able to have similar conversations on any of those topics likely not George George George condon national journal. Can you talk a little bit about the personal relationship between the two leaders? And how they work together and is there any concern in India about? The president being weakened because of the election losses. Yeah Well, I'll touch on the second point first, you know There's there's such a small legislative agenda in the United States that India cares about When you think about what a weakened president may or may not mean in the United States Most of that is irrelevant to what India wants. They want investment, which the United States government is not going to bring That's going to be the private sector They want security ties and most of that would be approvals of defense technologies and things like that where you know I don't think that you really see you know We can present necessarily if that's the case. I don't follow American politics nearly as close as I do American So I'll not use that term as my own, but so I just I just don't think that that makes a big deal right now There's one one element that I think when you when you when you look at What happened with the election that India is paying closer attention to which is the potential for immigration reform You know the bill that the Senate to pass last year under democratic leadership While expanding the number of H1B visas, which India uses very heavily It also precludes their use by the heaviest users, which are also Indian companies So, you know seeing how the immigration debate comes about and what version of the bills that the House and Senate Come up with if they decide to approach immigration again I think I think I heard Senator Hatch may have a new version that that he may have released recently But I haven't seen it yet But immigration is probably the one area where they look at this and they they would like to see but you know that being said under a democratic Senate They passed the bill that was you know, India companies consider very damaging. So Republicans taking over the Senate. I don't think you're looking at something worse than the bill that this that the Democrats had already passed. So overall, I don't think they I don't think it's such a big Big deal. I think most of what they look for is not related to the president's relative strength or weakness And what was the first? Yeah, I mean, I you know What was it like inside the limousine? Well, it was only the two of them and nobody's really talking on how that went but you know Leaders and they personal relationships Play a big role in who they choose to engage with and and I think there's no better indication of the fact that they seem to Have gotten along fine than the fact that the president agreed to go back so soon I mean, they've met, you know inside lines of here and there, but the fact that they agreed to official bilat again so soon You know, what does the president United States want? Does he want a best friend or does he want somebody that's going to carry through on commitments? And it's clearly the latter and if you look at what Prime Minister Modi has attempted to do ever since the September summit You know some things that even involve legislation in his country that he wasn't able to get the bills through parliament He issued his temporary bills ordinances and it's not a perfect solution But it does show I think a commitment to actually Provide deliverables based on those talks that that we hadn't seen in quite some time from from the Indian side So, you know, are they buddy buddy? That's that's for them to tell you about but more importantly for the president United States They he sees a counterpart that will actually try to deliver on things that are promised in those meetings And so I think that is probably the best The best way that they can show friendship Jeff Jeff Dyer from the Financial Times when you talk a bit more about climate change as you mentioned This is comes on the back of the big deal with China in a last year when the president with China How much pressure is the US putting on India over climate change and more broadly how much pressure does India feel it is under? Going into these big negotiations this year in the wake of this US China deal. Yeah Well, I'm sure the United States is going to make this as one of the top four or five things They're going to raise and and I think we'll find some small areas for collaboration on this But you know, you talk about what kind of pressure does does Prime Minister Modi feel? From his voting base From the people that he cares about far more than any foreign leader that comes in very little for that group You know India again, they want to see this period of industrialism Manufacturing which of course is you know a much heavier emitter than services or agriculture As a percent of GDP is about 12 or 13 percent in India You know, that's that's about a third of the level of a lot of other economies at India's scale of development and The Modi government they want to build infrastructure. They want to increase manufacturing They want to do more natural resource development So, you know, they consider the table and say let's let's let's collaborate Let's look at some things on climate change But if you see the actual policies being introduced in India, which you know, I'll tell you personally I think are perfect perfectly reasonable too You know, he's got to play to the domestic issue and they want jobs and they're less concerned at this point I think about about environmental degradation, you know, we can all say they should be more concerned about it But when you're talking about a country where you know more than half the population lives on less than two dollars a day You know Spurring economic development for them is far more important. It's a today thing rather than environmental issues Which is a tomorrow thing and you know, we can say it's right or wrong, but voters That's what they choose. So the pressures that Modi feels there's far more pressure on economic development Than there is on environmental issues from the people that he cares most about So the United States is certainly going to list rank up there and and we'll find some areas for collaboration And you know, whether it's nuclear whether it's you know, I don't know if there's something that can be done you know related to to gas because we have limitations on what we can do with gas as a bridge fuel but But you know what you see in industrialization what you see on India and what they're doing on coal right now, right? The Supreme Court revoked coal licenses to the government owned coal companies Last year and what is the Modi government done? Well, they're talking about dramatically reshaping the coal industry in India Reallocating those mines allowing private sector to come in Designating the mines that are closer to the users. So if it's an iron plan instead of having it all the way across the country Why not have coal allocated closer to the iron plan? So So, you know, the actual things you see on the ground Are stepping towards becoming a bigger emitter With China, you know China is moving towards the services economy. So it's the alternative They're looking at building up a part of the economy that is less emissions focused India doesn't know what the upside to its emissions is going to be yet It just cannot imagine and conceive what that's going to look like because they don't yet know if this this attempt to move Into an industrial economy is going to work But it's worked for a lot of others in the past. So presuming that it will they just have no idea what the upside Looks like. So to commit to something I think is going to be a lot tougher in India than it will be for for China today They are certainly high on the American agenda Dan Dan Roberts from the Guardian and a couple of questions on nuclear and China On your point about nuclear liability, what is it exactly? Do you think that the US is pushing for through the contact group? And can you describe The extent to which the memories of both are also play a role in the US approach to this I mean is that is this something the the bomb is going to want to kind of get behind and on? China I just wondered if you could talk you spoke a little bit about the comparisons on on climate Geopolitically and strategically to what extent is this trip partly about building a ball walk or a counterweight to China in US mines? Yeah Well, okay, so on on nuclear So that there's only two Alternatives that I've heard publicly floated but what the contacts group has been doing so far because they just had another round of meetings They're not talking so internally. I can't tell you if they've got alternatives But the two that have been talked about publicly so far, you know, one is for India to develop a an insurance product domestically Likely through General Insurance Corporation, which is their national reinsurer because right now, you know And this is you know part of the conversations that you have with with my friends in India. They say You know look, you know the insurance thing don't worry about it but there's an infinity symbol attached to that your liability if something goes wrong and You know companies actually do a calculation. What's the turn on investment? And if one element that calculation is the infinity symbol, you can't do the calculation So, you know to talk about being a supplier is very difficult. So So the two that I've heard the domestically developed insurance product and the other you know again as if NPC IL because foreign companies aren't allowed to own nuclear Facilities the facilities will all be owned by the government of India But will America be a supplier to them the developer in India is NPC IL nuclear power corporation of india limited And they're earlier about a note prepared internal to the government of India that they believe NPC IL can absolve suppliers of downstream liability in the contracts But you know my conversations with companies. They don't think that that is strong enough Yeah, so the American suppliers look at I mean there's a lot of suppliers out there You know GE and Westinghouse are the developers But anybody that makes a piece that goes into it, you know if it's the piece that goes wrong then so so they look at this this internal memo that had been prepared and They're just not sure that that will hold up in a court. So it's not quite strong enough So these are the two alternatives that I've heard talked about publicly But the contacts group may have a few other aces up their sleeve as well So we'll know that and we can have perhaps So on and does both all play into it? It does. I mean, I think we're very cognizant of the fact that India has suffered the worst industrial tragedy But at the same time You know environmental degradation for us, you know And I think we've got a very long-term view on this is another form of industrial tragedy if Decisions aren't taken and nuclear is a cleaner source, you know, is it a perfect source? You know, probably not is it a much better source than coal or kerosene, which is what most Indian homes use or or dung cakes That's the alternative and there's damages to each, you know, the family that's Heating their home by using a dung cake and doesn't have piping, right? They're slowly killing themselves So, you know nuclear is not perfect But you also look at the alternatives and there's damages to those as well Which you know, that's I think the the calculation that we try to make when we talk about nuclear as a component and and again We're not pushing nuclear on India India wants to build nuclear and there they want to have access to the technology So so it is, you know as much of a pull as it is a push to India's own plans are talking about scaling up to 25% nuclear from like 4% today by 2050 So there's a there's a strong pull as well on China, you know We really talk about it more as not a counterweight to China, but you want a multi-polar Asian future You know, you want multiple sources of power in any jurisdiction and we would love for India to be because of course We've got an alignment of values I mean, I know a lot of Americans when they when they talk about China in this context in the India context They make it as the bait and you know, China is growing and they're dangerous and strong and all this The growth of China has had some tremendous, you know benefits worldwide. I mean a source of stability during the financial crisis Pulling more people out of poverty than any other thing that's ever happened in human history You know the rise of China has that The work that they've done off and on on bringing North Korea to the table on you know the talks I mean there's great and then, you know, they ram a fishing boat in the South China Sea You'll create an island or air defense and unification zone So, you know, it's not all one way or the other that China is the thing that we have to work against But we do want a multi-polar Asia and India would you know, when you think about who could be the alternative sources other sources of power It's a great bet, you know, is it going to be, you know, Japan? Well, that's going to be our friend for a long time ASEAN But but you know India as a large country that'll be you know population wise in the next 20 years Probably surpassing China Economy wise, you know, it'll be a it'll be a rival and growing quite heavily. So so that's what we're looking for Out of this relationship is another pole of power, but not a counterweight or something like that Yeah, hi, Angela Greiland keen with Bloomberg. Can you put the Republic Day in perspective? I know it's a very important holiday in India and having Obama as the key guest is a big deal What does that mean for Modi having Obama as the guest for the people of India? And does it have any residents here in the US? I don't know here in the United States That it necessarily does But but in India it's gonna be a really big deal You know, I mean anytime that you see polling done in India about which countries that they feel a strong affinity towards United States always ranks very highly on that list and it's for obvious reasons You know the fact that we've got I mean it's it's it's old hat right but shared values both democracies both Common law systems, but the the people the people ties is tremendous, you know, everybody in India Probably has got a relative or friend that has studied in the United States. It lives in the United States. They you know So at least among Yeah, I guess when you when you talk about Indian sentiments about this kind of thing You know, they they feel a strong affinity towards the United States and You know, they're That's with the American people with the US government, you know, I guess it It's it's warming up there, too. I Mentioned Pakistan and there still are concerns about America's continued support for Pakistan But I think the the concerns that have been there, especially when we first began to engage in the pretty heavily 1015 years ago There was a there was a real fear in India that That it was a you know, it was a it was a hard handshake, you know You you grab the hand and suddenly you're getting pulled into the American orbit And I think too with with Modi who has exhibited such strength on domestic and foreign policy, you know There's probably a little bit less concern that he's somebody that we can push and pull around that if Modi agrees to a deal Because he's got such support in India that if he agrees to a deal that probably it's one You know would be in India's interest. So You know support for America generally has been excellent support for American presidents when they visited has been terrific And I think you know the the concerns about if there's actually deals negotiated and handled during during such a an important day Probably a bit less concerned right now because of variety of factors and there would be otherwise but it's all about the packaging, you know, I mean we're looking back at at President Clinton's visit in 2000 and you see some of the announcements in the joint statement there and you know Included in the joint statement was, you know, we want India to give up its nuclear weapons You know, there's some things that were very provocative in that joint statement at the time So part of it too is at the end of the day, how does it all get packaged if we come to an agreement? Can it be packaged in a way? We're clearly, you know each side gives and takes a little bit and If that's done if the Indian people look at what what transpires at the end of the visit and say that you know These pieces I understand why this is good for me as well Then that goes a long way as well. So I think relations people to people great I think the American public probably still doesn't have India quite as high in its mind as as you know Those of us that follow India every day think that it should The Indian American community they look at this is pretty exciting and that's not in you know in irrelevant group You're talking what two or three million people, but a lot of times in in some you know positions of power and influence So so yeah, I think overall the Indian public though is gonna welcome it pretty warmly any other questions Roberta Hi, I'm Roberta Rampton from Reuters I'm just wondering how concerned India is about the US withdrawal from Afghanistan And whether the government will be looking for any extra assurances from Obama Yeah, they're extremely concerned about that You know that that certainly is at or close to the top of the list Yeah, and here's where you know, I talked about specific deliverables Well one thing that we'll probably never know as a deliverable, but is intelligent sharing you know, this is where Both the United States and India have contacts all throughout Afghanistan and the question is when we pick up chatter That's relevant to the other's interests Are we sharing that effectively and you know the word that I get behind the scenes is it's pretty good You know always could be better, but certainly could be a lot worse. So Yeah, they're very concerned I think from the US We haven't done as good of a job as we could about Kind of bringing India under the tent before we make decisions and at least letting them to know before we announce it publicly We've got a US India Afghanistan Trilateral that just has not been meeting as often as it should and that's meant to be a consultative group looking at What's happening in Afghanistan and related to both of our shared interests? So Afghanistan will be high on the radar I think you know, hopefully we'll we'll give some inside indication and maybe even request some feedback on what our evolving role is going to be Intelligent sharing will certainly be brought up into something that we can both agree on And and restarting and making more more active this this trilateral. I think would be pretty important Great. We'll go here and then Yes, thank you. Thank you. My name is Junpei Shuka from Japanese Public Broadcast NHK Can you elaborate a little bit on the current administrations? kind of policy about trilateralism which Seen in like US Japan Australia and also US India Japan What is the administration trying to intend by involving the third country? Not just like US India, especially in Japan because I'm from Japan. Yeah Great question. So I can only talk about the US Japan India I'm so India focused that the other ones maybe Andrew can but You know So I think It it with with Japan in particular, right Both of our countries look at India as as of such strategic importance and relevance both I was certain to say strategic strategic and economic, right? We got the full package there and some of the work for instance that the the Japanese government is doing on funding industrial corridors and things like that We've got such great relations with Japan that you know, it would be It would be a bad idea for us to ignore that work that that your government is doing with the government of India And so to actually have consultative conversations So as you're developing these industrial corridors as you're looking to you know, share on a variety of other fronts And including you know the great work that the government of Japan does in other markets as well that India is a player and relevant in For us to ignore that Would be at our own peril and so if we can find ways You know for instance if you're building a corridor and we're trying to bring American companies to invest in India To get them to invest along the corridor if it's you know sharing Intelligence on your share, you know interest that all three of us have so I would say like Looking at it from the outside before before I began to dig in on the trilateral I thought trilateral seems kind of strange getting to degree on anything is difficult getting three is almost impossible But you actually find that sometimes conversations are a little bit easier when you've got three in the room at the same time And to that point I'll say you know one thing that we find also with with our trilateral Japan India United States is you know getting back to this question that came up really about the the hard handshake that you get with the United States Partner with us, but you're supposed to follow us India doesn't have that same kind of feeling about partnering with Japan on things And so if the fact the three of us come to agreement makes it more palatable for tough decisions to be taken by New Delhi Then I think we all win in that as well the United States may have a Lot to offer as we look at you know Whether it's going to be economic development or or third third country regional kind of work We may have a lot to offer but sometimes it's difficult to get agreement by ourselves and actually you know With with Japan being at the table and seen so positively and not really seen as having that kind of hard handshake That sometimes it makes things that we agree to a little more palatable. So I'm a firm believer in the trilateral I think there's great things that come from it. Yeah One more follow-up on that Isn't there any concern that China? Might feel as being contained by those three countries I Contained I mean You'll hear that brought up Including by the Chinese some concern that the trilateral is a is a containment measure But at the same time, you know, China is huge big trading partner with all of our countries So you've got a lot of you know, again very positive aspects to that relationship So, you know, you may hear it brought up, but at the same time I think you know you look at the kind of relationship the United States has with China The way that you know with our with our dialogues the kind of discussions that we have I mean coming to climate agreement you've got you've seen a lot of progress and a lot of real positives in that So you may hear it brought up but so far we've not seen it, you know, kind of like really impact I think The kind of bilateral relationship that we can have with China So it's a it's a press release from China, but substantively our engagement with China continues ahead We got time for one more Thank You Lalit Jha from PTI best of India What would be US expectations from the trip and secondly when presents lands in India Which are the countries that will be watching this relationship and why? So the first part so what what what will happen during the trip that But that's what you're kind of so specific deliverables or something beyond that well, I mean, I think you know Because we having two summits in a row Again, I hate setting up and saying that there's got to be big deliverables for these kind of things But when you got two of these in such short succession You'd presume that at least of the list that I just gave on defense deals on DTTI announcements on renewing the defense framework on nuclear cooperation You know some things on climate change you'd presume that if they're getting together so soon and it's going to be They're talking about a three-day trip Something of substance I would presume would get announced during this visit But probably not all five so I can't really pick between the five of them But you know most of the most of the important work that happens actually happens in between So, you know the visit itself is important But even if you don't have a bunch of these big deliverables You know the work that happens in between and the kind of high-level interest and attention I think that the US government has and paying paying to this account right now Is a way that we haven't seen in quite some time. So the the intervening Meetings that happen in between are also going to be extremely critical The US Treasury Secretary should be going out to India before too long We'll have this strategic dialogue in in Washington this summer So there's a lot of other things that are kind of teed up for for major Meetings now long after and again getting to the fact that you know We see the Modi government actually trying to carry out things that were promised during previous interactions You know merging the PIO and the OCI cards The insurance bill passed as an ordinance All these things happen in between and all these things are things that were brought up during the bilats So I think the in-between stuff is pretty important to you But I I would be surprised at at least one of these five categories I mentioned you don't see some kind of something of substance kids announced because The second point though, which other countries are going to be following this Well, I think you know most closely Pakistan is going to look at this You know China will certainly pay attention to see what comes out of it Russia France I mean a lot of countries that would also like to share civilian nuclear technology With India are going to want to see whether or not we're able to make progress through the contacts group Other countries that look to share military technology the the ones I mentioned and I'd include Israel in that The main economic partners Which would also include Japan among the group that I mentioned So yeah, that's I think the group that probably pays closest attention I mean whether it's nuclear suppliers defense or the main economic engagers You know those are the concentric circles that you know to varying degrees pay pretty close attention to all this Europe as well. I mean, you know the climate change discussions, but also You know, I think we've got a lot of shared interest in engaging India as the European Union You talk about trilaterals there is at least a track to trilateral between US EU and India But but I think you know the kind of collaboration that we do with Europe on engaging India is a little bit behind What it is in Japan and it could be an area for for potential upgrade a Small quick follow-up very rarely the US president travels overseas and goes to only one country So far as the announcement has been only to India and the five or six US president that have traveled to India So far have also traveled the region other Asian countries this time is traveling only to India What's the significance symbolism associated with this? What do you think? It's a big deal. I mean There's no better way to put it. It's a really big deal You know you really feel the sense that After the disappointment of the 2010 liability law and again the decline in interest among the strategic community That you know in the US government people are back on the mentality the page of looking at this as a 20-30 year relationship rather than just suffering from you know the ups and downs of following things the daily events and You know as we think about Asia in 20 and 30 years in the future, right? If we want a multipolar Asia, it's going to be India. India's got to be part of that small discussion And if there's things that we can do to collaborate with India today to set that up For India to be a stronger friend and partner of the United States 20 and 30 years down the road You know you feel very much that the administration is back on board with doing that that if we can fix some of the problem from The past including the liability law including get some you know major defense initiatives going That we're willing to spend the time and energy to do it So it is extremely significant for the president to go back to India a second time To do it only as an India trip to be the guest for Republic Day, right? The symbolism of all this is tremendous. So so very exciting I think that again, I'd be surprised if you don't see some pretty big announcements, but We're all waiting to see to what the actual schedule looks like and so we'll all know in a week and a half now Thank you all very much for coming to CSIS today We'll have this transcript out to you later this afternoon. You can follow us at CSIS. Thanks so much great. Thanks up