 Hello and welcome to the CMC Markets Monday weekly market update webinar with myself David Madden, market analyst here at CMC Markets. Today's date is Monday the 27th of November. At the time has just gone 12.15 p.m. We're kicking off the webinar in less than one minute's time and as always what we will be doing is we'll be leaving the risk warning slides on the screen here in front of you to have a quick read through before we actually proceed with webinar itself. It's a matter of standard procedure and it is something that will keep our compliance department very very happy. It's all very straightforward it just effectively states that anything that is covered in the webinar today is no personal views and comments and opinions and should not be construed as explicit trading and or investment advice. It's all fairly straightforward stuff. If you just want to have a read of that I'll leave it on the screen a few seconds per slide for you guys to have a read over and then after that we will be then kicking on with the webinar. So it'll be the usual rundown where every quick talk quick chat about what has gone on in terms of the news over the last few days. We'll also be looking quickly at the week ahead the economic and corporate calendar of what's potentially going to be the big movers of the week in terms of news events and corporate events and then finally we're then be looking at the bulk of the webinar looking at the major markets a few indices a few commodities a few currency pairs keeping an eye on those and looking at the potential price action that we could see in the next few trading days. So if we take a look at how things are making a fair enough at this weekend it's been a relatively slow news session I suppose the big news over the last few days has been that the Social Democratic Party the SPD in Germany stated that they were at least open to the idea of a grand coalition with the Christian Democratic Union Party which is headed by Chancellor Angela Merkel. The meeting is to take place on Thursday and it would seem a bit more optimistic that certain forms are met in relation to the SPD's agenda. They will be open to the idea of going into a grand coalition with the largest party the CDU in Germany and that has helped a bit of political stability along and that has had somewhat investor sentiment. We also had some sentiment numbers out from China overnight in relation to the kind of steel industry and also some of the sales managers figures. It's sort of a kind of a frontrunner to the PMI the purchasing manufacturing numbers which are later chewed out later this week but the indication did state that there were some kind of slow down or concerns about the state of the economy. China is out to do really well but proposed that the rate of economic growth in China is slowing down and that is no secret. So we have seen some of the mining companies like the Andrew Resources and Artificasta which are exposed to China via metals trade lower on the session. Taking a look now at what's ahead at the big events of the week. If you go to our website here and under news and analysis, click on the news analysis section. Some of the articles that we invite every single day here on the market analysts team get posted up. Others will be posted into Insight which I will show you later on. Under the section Wiki Outlook if you filter by third option down you then bring up the week ahead article which gives you a snapshot of the major economic and corporate events of the week. So this week ahead you can see here it's in the headline with an OPEC meeting and also we have UK Bank Stress Test. Coming up tomorrow is the details of the UK Bank Stress Test. On Wednesday we have third quarter GDP from the United States. On Thursday we have a couple of corporate updates Green King the public chain operator here in the UK. They have numbers coming out and as to the Daily Mail and General Trust on Thursday. Then Friday we get the last of our manufacturing PMI numbers because quite a few of the we have quite a few major countries reporting their PMI numbers throughout the week but we get the last of it on Friday. Scrolling down to your corporate calendar we can see here it's been a reasonably quiet week in terms of numbers coming out. If we have pets at home in the UK our first half number is coming up tomorrow. We also have a full year figures from top tiles tomorrow. Moving further afield to Wednesday having a scroll down I think Wednesday's numbers. We have a half year figures coming out from Penham Group here in the UK and also Telford Homes. What's going to be interesting to watch out for retail stock in the United States. Definitely you'll have third quarter numbers out. Scrolling down on Thursday as I mentioned Daily Mail and General Trust numbers out as the Green King but we also have numbers coming off of Express in the United States and Barnes and Noble on Thursday. Paypoint of numbers out. Half your numbers out on Thursday from the UK and scrolling down if you don't have two particularly popular companies reporting their numbers out on Friday from the United States. So I'm looking now at some of the major markets. It'd be the usual rundown for myself. What we're going to do is talk about, we'll talk about very briefly the corporate calendar on our website. If you've got a market pulse, fourth option down, market calendar. We touched on some of the major economic indicators coming out but this actually is a bit more detailed. It gives you the actual what's announced. It gives the forecast and it gives the previous. This way of showcasing you some of the, so where some of the information is available on our website. So tomorrow the big one to watch out for is going to be consumer confidence numbers, the confidence board numbers out of the United States at 3 p.m. Moving on to Wednesday. We have CPI numbers coming out of Germany around lunchtime on Wednesday. We also have the gasoline figures in relation to US crude oil stockpiles. We have the OPEC meeting which is going to be on Thursday. It's going to be, which could provide quite a bit of volatility for the energy market. In the early hours of Thursday, we have the manufacturing PMI numbers coming out of China overnight. We also have house price numbers coming out of the UK early doors on Thursday morning. We also have other indicators throughout the day. For example, Spanish GDP and we also have unemployment numbers coming out of Germany early Thursday morning. We also have personal consumption and spending from the United States at lunchtime on Thursday and we have Japanese CPI and very late hours of Thursday night. Then pushing on to Friday. Friday the 1st of December. Where is the year gone? Can you believe we're approaching December already? Taking a look at the economic indicators coming out on Friday. Like I mentioned already, we've got a few PMI manufacturing reports from all the major Eurozone countries. We also have from the UK. We also have from the United States and we have both growth and unemployment numbers coming out of Canada at lunchtime too. Just to let you know, some of the economic indicators, some of the reports that we write here at CMC Markets get put up on the news and analysis section on our website. Others will be in the Insights section, which is if you click on Market Pulse. Second option down is Insights. So some of the written articles that we do and politics in relation to economic releases get put up on the Insights and the chart forum, which is also under Market Pulse is the third option down. So it'd be a quick snapshot of a particular chart and within a few other characters we'll discuss some of the potential price action we could see on a particular chart. Speaking of price action, I'll get into the main body of the webinar and look at some of the major markets and discuss what we potentially could see in the next few days. So in early November, we did have quite a large sell-off in global equities. As you can see here, the first 200 had a fairly decent sell-off. But for the last week or so, we have been kind of grinding higher on 30,000. It hasn't been really running away with itself. We've had a fairly clear, precise series of lower, sorry, higher lows. So notice how the market, each time it creates a low, it's actually higher than the previous low. So the market's nudging higher. We're just north of the 7400 level. And what you can see here is on the MACD histogram, on the MACD indicator, we can see that negative momentum is clearly declining. So the setting pressure that was in play in early November is declining. And the market actually has been pushing higher. So we're resting fairly comfortably on the maturity moving average in around 7400. If you can hold north of that, and we could see a continuation of the bounce back. So should we see a bounce back, continuation of the bounce back? The first level the market would take out is this high here from late November at 7,460. And if you go beyond that, we could see go ahead and back up towards 7,500. And then beyond that, we could be looking up towards, we saw a lot of consolidation in around this area here at 7,561. And then north of that, we would have come towards 7,600. But if the market doesn't, if this bounce back manages to run out of steam, obviously the market turning over on itself again, what we could do is we may find support to the downside here in the mid-November low of 7,350. And then if you go below that, we could be heading back towards 7,300, or even the late September low of 7,233. As always, I'll go to the major indices, major commodities and currencies. Any markets that you haven't, any markets that you haven't, or haven't covered, please feel free to type in the chat box. I sent a few messages to the chat box here in Iran. And if you want me to cover any particular markets, just stick them in there, and I'd be happy to do so. Send a lot of pattern to the Germany 30, the Bax, whereby the market came off quite aggressively in November, in early November, but has been pushing, has been grinding higher here. Similar with the FTSE 100, the Germany 30 is creating higher lows. So the market is pushing up, is pushing higher here. We can see what once was quite substantial, negative momentum is in a fairly clear decline. So the setting of pressure is waning. And all the same time, the market is ever slightly kind of grinding higher, it's not running away with itself, but it's certainly creating higher lows. So we could see a continuation of this positive move. And if you do get a continuation of this positive move, the next level to watch out for would be the kind of late November high, the late November high of 13,211. And then if you go beyond that, we'd be looking at this level here, but the gap was created at 13,316. And the move beyond that could send us up to the all time high of 13,534. So it would appear that the selling pressure is running our steam. And we could look, we could see a disbalance back turning into another retesting of the all time high on the decks. But for the time being the fifth day moving average, just in around this area here, sort of at 13,000 even is acting a support for now. But if you do see a move itself of that, we could be heading back to the kind of mid November lows of 12,847 this area here. And if you go south of that, we could be heading back down towards just north of 12,700. This price action here. The American markets are in a much better shape than their European counterparts. Take a look now at the Dow Jones. It hasn't called up with the likes of the S&P and the Nasdaq 100 where it's been continuing to kind of post record highs, but it's really within within the earshot of it. It's an ice slide of it. It's quite close. So the Dow Jones, the US 30, has been trading at a fairly narrow range here. The market has been pushing higher. So we have seen markets make move towards the recent record highs. At the same time, we are seeing a fairly clear and concise decline in negative momentum. So the actual histogram, the negative something the negative component is in the client. So selling pressure is running out. We're approaching the recent all time or approaching the record high. So we could be looked to the Dow Jones could be looking to play catch up with the S&P 500 and actually go on to set a series of further record highs as the S&P has been doing. So should you continue to move north of here, we'll keep it up towards 12,000, sorry, 13, 23,700, 800, 900, so on and so forth. So but if we do see any pullbacks in the Dow Jones in the US 30, we may see fresh buyers enter the fold because if you look over the last few months buying on the dip has been a very popular strategy with some traders. So if you do see any pullbacks in the Dow Jones, we may see some buying support in around here at 23,400 or even as low down here just south of 20 of us in around 23,250 in this 5C area here. The S&P 500 chart looks fairly similar whereby it's the one kind of concise difference has been that the S&P 500 that should be going on to hit record highs only last Friday. So as you can see here, it's been a fairly solid upper train constantly ratcheting up fresh record highs along here. So the sentiment is fairly bullish and the bias is fairly to the upside. You notice here how even when the market did see a bit of a pullback and a bit of a market correction, we saw a steady increase in negative momentum and then the kind of warning sign was that the selling pressure was coming to an end. As the markets started to creep higher, we saw a very distinct decline in negative momentum and that was actually swung ever so slightly to the positive side. So we could be in line for another rejuvenation of the bullish sentiment that we've seen basically for the last number of months on the S&P 500. So we could be heading up towards 2,610, 20, 30, and so on and so forth. And if you do see any declines in the S&P 500, we may see fresh buyers end of the fold like with the Dow Jones because it's basis of the last number of months buying the pullback has been a popular strategy for traders on the S&P 500. So if you do see any pullbacks, we may find support in around here at $2,591 or $2,580 or down a fall is $2,570 or perhaps even if you see a deep correction, it could even go as though as a fifth of the moving average, this price here at $2,560. So while we've had quite a decent considerable push higher on the US indices, what we've had on gold has actually been quite boring to be honest. We see the market kind of grind a bit higher, but it hasn't really, it's been able to kind of make a kind of a decent attack on the $1,300 level. The broad movement of gold throughout 2017, this is here, this is us here and kind of almost nearly about a year ago. From the lows to kind of mid December 2016, causing broadly been pushing higher. Hit a few multi multi-month highs was kind of range bound between the kind of around 12, 19, kind of low 1200s. We're down here in September to hit a 13 month high, kind of come off that high here. And it looks like we're back in the kind of general slow instead, you kind of grind to the upside. It's been a fairly uninteresting market for the last number of weeks, but what you can clearly see here is a slight gradient to the upside. It's been a fairly, fairly clear and concise series of lower highs here, even though I've really seen an obvious series of higher highs, but the bias would appear that should be upside. The market really hasn't kind of failed to have a decent test on $1,300, but what we have been sure of is we have seen a series of higher highs. So we have seen buyers stepping whenever the market does move lower. So the next level to watch out for on gold, we're currently trading around 12, 49, 1300, a psychological level, keep on there for that one. And if you do take out 1300, we're going to be looking towards possibly the mid-October high of 1306, 1307. And then north of that, we could be looking towards this price action here. We saw some consolidation in around here at 1316. And then beyond 1316, a bit of consolidation price action around here at 1334. And if that's taken out, then the level of 1358, which is the 13 month high would then potentially come into play. But if we do see any drifting lowering in gold, we may find support at the one or two day moving average this price here, which comes into play at 1283. It has been kind of almost like a magnet to the metal over the past few weeks. Gold really hasn't moved a whole lot further away from the one or two day moving average recently. So but if you do see a drop below 1285, we could be looking towards support at 1270, this kind of mid-November low here. And then if you go below 1270, we could head back towards the October low of 1261. But notice how the market is grinding higher, a series of higher lows. Also, we're seeing fairly, even though the price action isn't ratcheting up majorly, but we are seeing a steady build in positive momentum. So the market is grinding higher and the momentum is with the buyers. We'll take a look now at what's going on in the old markets. As I mentioned on Thursday, we have the OPEC meeting for the last few weeks now. We've been hearing more and more chatter that OPEC are looking to extend their coordinated production cut beyond the end of March 2018, potentially the end to potentially all of 2018. So pushing it out for the nine months as a way of actually keeping a cap on the global supply. So taking a look, that's actually the copper church. My apologies. I'll bring up Brent Crude now. I started out by looking at the weekly chart of Brent and then zoom in to the daily church. So there is talk that that OPEC are going to extend the production cut deadline from the end of March 2018 out until about the sounds of at the end or say December 2018. So a full nine month extension, that's been the market chatter. You could argue that a lot of that is already actually priced in and depends on what it was actually delivered on the day itself and depends if they could do it, any get a gift, any forward guidance towards 2019. So what we saw here on the WTI on the Brent Crude chart a few weeks ago had managed to make a decisive burst north of the 200 week moving average, results in a big site, a big important indicator and a parameter of how strong the market is. So it moved north of the 200 week moving average, then the following week we saw a correction, it drifted back below it. Now we're kind of firmly above the 200 week moving average here. So as a broad indicator for north of the 200 week moving average, that's a positive sign. And then I'll zoom in now and as you can see here for the last few weeks and months from June here for the last five months there's been a steady increase in positive momentum on the weekly chart here. You could argue that we're seeing a bit of a tapering off so we might see a bit of a pullback. So if you do see a pullback on Brent, we could see a head back drift back towards the 200 week moving average in around $62 a barrel or perhaps even on towards $61 but the trend for the last six months or five months has been to the upside. And if you look at it here on a daily chart, this is from the lows of June. It's a very clear and concise upward trend, higher highs and higher lows. Your classic definition of an upward trend. This is when the market here hit its 200 week moving average and then of course we saw the market drift lower as a bit of profit taking setting and now we're seeing the market push higher again. As we're seeing the market push higher, we're also seeing the fairly obvious decline in negative momentum. So we could be heading back up towards $65 a barrel or $66 to the upside and then beyond that, obviously the big 70 bucks will then become the big level to watch out for. But if you do see any pullbacks in Brent Crudall, this area here has provided decent support recently so we could be in around the kind of 61 50 level. So 62, 61 50, 61, these areas we may find supporting and even if you go south of that, we could be looking heading back towards the kind of the September high of $59 which $59.51 which coincides with the 50 day moving averages at the moment. Taking a look now at WTI. I'll start off with the weekly chart. So WTI played a bit of catch up, but I managed to get there. So WTI is actually now above is 200 week moving average. So it's obviously a big kind of important barometer of market sentiment being north of that particular metric. So we're currently trading just north of $58 a barrel. So 60 bucks a barrel is going to become a psychological number to keep an eye out for north of this because the direction and the trend for the last six months since the June low has been clearly to be upside. Like with Brent, it's been a series of higher highs and higher lows. Although the oil market is quite choppy, so just be careful in relation to where you put your stop losses because if you're trading short-term derivatives, you need to get the direction and the timing right. So keep an eye out where you potentially see pullbacks heading to. So the market has been pushing higher here. We can see that on the maxi indicator of the histogram. It's swung to the momentum. It's swung from negative territory to positive territory to the pressure and the momentum is with the bulls. If you do see any pullbacks, you could see some pullbacks in around here, in around the kind of $57 a barrel, $56 a barrel region, but only quite a large correction will potentially take us below this area here at $54.63. I'll go up now to some of the currency pairs. Take a look now at the euro versus the US dollar. So the euro versus the dollars has got quite a decent roll in the last few weeks. We saw a fairly tepid, poor US dollar last week, which helped the euro no ends. Not to mention, it's also because of the economic indicators on Germany and also France last week. So we've seen the euro push off here. We haven't seen the euro at this level here. It's currently north of $119. We haven't seen it north of $119 since late September. So we're talking basically at two months high for the euro versus the US dollar. So as you can see, as the market was pushing higher here, we saw a fairly steady increase in positive momentum. So the momentum is with the bulls. So we could see a continuation of this positive move on the euro. So currently at $119.36, the next big psychological look out for the upside is going to be the $120 level. And then north of $120, we look into the September high of $120.92. As you can see yourself in the last few weeks and within the wider trend of 2017, kind of finding the dip has been a popular strategy on the euro versus the US dollar. So if you do see any pullbacks, we may find support in on this price here, which comes in the mid-October high of $118.79. And then below that, even down as long as potentially going to have $118, we could see some support in around there. Or even down where the 50 and the 100-day moving average seemed to cross over at $117.65. We're looking at the pound versus the US dollar and the pound has also had a decent month versus the greenback, especially in light of the week US dollar over the last few weeks. I started off with a big picture from the March lows, throughout that through the August low. You can clearly see here that this trend line was tested quite a few times and we did see a few punctures of it. But broadly speaking, the market, the pound, managed to kind of always, whatever it did below that particular trend line, managed to get back above it. We can see here that only on Friday we hit a level on the pound versus US dollar, not seen since, well, since very, very early October. So we're talking about seven weeks highs on the pound versus US dollar. It's above the trend line support. It's hitting multi-week highs. We can see here that this push higher here on price is confirmed by the steady increase in positive momentum. So when the price and the momentum are moving in the same direction, you can be more confident the move is going to last. If you see divergence in the two, that could be an early warning sign that there might be a bit of a turnaround in the price action. But while the market's pushing higher, let's take a look to the upside. We could see potentially this area active resistance, quite a lot of consolidation in price action in around here from mid-September, which is coming to play in around 134.52, 134.50 region in around here. And then if you go north of that, some traders could be looking towards the September high of 136.59. And to the downside, if you do get any moves lower, the trend line support comes into play and now it probably comes into play in around the 132 region. So even if you go as low as, even if you stay north of 130, I suspect we could see a continuation of the wider upper trend on the pound versus the greenback to stay in place. I'll just do a couple more charts now on the euro sterling, the euro dollar and then to wrap it up. So we could see here is it hasn't been quite as clear or concise, but the euro has certainly gained quite a bit over the against the pound over the last few months. We have been looking, we've been trying a tightest range to the month of November on the euro versus the British pound. What we'd see here that whereas we perhaps on occasion see in the 100 day moving average active persistence, it's still pretty much trying to crack that level. And the 100 day moving average is pretty much in around these areas here, in around the zero spot 8945 region. So if you're making a slice of break north of that and take out zero spot 90, we could be then be looking towards this price area here from the middle of September in that was zero spot 9049. And then if you go beyond that, looking towards 91 and zero spot 91 and zero spot 9160 in around here. As you can see, as America was kind of grinding higher here, you didn't have to see a kind of pickup in policy of momentum. So like I said, when the momentum applies from the head in the same direction, you can be more confident the move will last. So if you do see any move to the downside, we may, we may see the fifth day moving average active support again. And that will be in that zero spot 8878. And then below that, we could see it, we could see the 100 day moving average active support in a zero spot 7989. This will be the last chart of the day session. It's going to cover now the US dollar versus the Japanese yen. So looking at the dollar versus the Japanese yen, we can see here that since early November, it's been a quite a considerable move to the downside. It took off the mid October low. So it could even be a sign that we're going to head south again on the dollar versus the Japanese yen. One thing I can say is that as the market was pushing lower here, there's a steady increase in negative momentum, but negative momentum has cooled somewhat here where this area here at 111 could be decided whether the market bounces off that level. And I should continue in the wider trend that it's been in since September, or whether if 111 is taken out, we could see an increase in a negative momentum and we could see an increase in selling pressure. I mean, look, look for us to head sat back down towards 110. The mid September low, this price here at 109.55. And if you go south of that, the next really big level to watch out for will be the September low down here in at 107.32. But we seem to be on the last few trading sessions in quite a narrow trading range in around here on the dollar versus the yen. So if we do move higher, the first level we need to take out to the upside will be the tier D moving average in at 111.71. And then beyond that, the 112 region will be the level to keep an eye on. And should we move north of 112, the fifth that they move the average, which previously provided support in November, may actually resistance this time around, should the market move higher. And the that price area comes into play in at 112.80, spot 81. Right, now that I've covered the major markets, I very quickly show you other seminars and webinars that we're holding. So if you go to our website and under the the learn section where you found details for this webinar, I'll give you give you details of other events that are hosted by ourselves and you think that that's your feel free to come along to and sign up for. So later tonight at 7pm London time, UK time, we have the webinar trend development program part four, the live trading Q&A on Wednesday the 29th of November with this one with this webinar here at 7pm UK time, a guide to modern technical analysis. And then next Monday the 4th of December, I'll be back in the hot seat at 1215. I do appreciate your patience. And also this work pointing out that a recording of this webinar is going to be tweeted out by myself. And it's also going to be put on the inside section of our website and inside is under market pulse. Second option down is where insights market insights is and that will be available on our website within the next hour or so. From all of us here at CMC markets. Thank you for your patience. Thank you for listening. Have a good trading week and good luck.