 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread? That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire.com as we are getting you set for week number 13 of college football Ian Cameron you can find his work at the sportsbook review and also at V sin and we'll be breaking down college football College basketball NHL will get a little a little bit of gray cup talking there as well So looking forward to bringing Ian in in just a bit. My name is Jim Saunas I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire.com joined here as always by Ed Fang You can find his work over at the power Inc.com and at the power Inc on Twitter Ed Your Michigan Wolverines pulling out the offense last week. So how you doing today? I'm doing pretty good. Yeah It was a pretty exceptional game That was pretty good. Although not as you know Not as exceptional as the the margin of victory that Northwestern Put up last weekend against Massachusetts. I think 30 so how impressive were bookmakers for that game because like I feel like that'd be such a difficult game to diagnose if you were a bookmaker and The total is around, you know between 38 and 40 depending on when you got it and Northwestern won that game By almost exactly that number like right. It's it's kind of amazing how that works out. Yeah I mean, you know my number had it right about 39 as well. So I was pretty happy with with kind of how that turned out But you know Northwestern has this unique opportunity to follow that up with a statement win over Minnesota this week In a game that actually doesn't matter in the grand scheme of the Big Ten West So you can catch from napping Take home a scalp and and and you know kind of salvage the season for the Northwestern Wildcats. Yeah I don't think it's gonna happen Pat Fitzgerald had his press conference this week and He basically said nobody on this team is prepared to play quarterback right now, which is a correct But be the most blunt assessment. I have ever heard a coach give of his own team in my entire life He's right, but I've never heard a coach say that and it was like wild to me So there they're 13 and a half point dogs at home. It seems about right I grew up in Minnesota, which means that until like eighth grade I was I was a golden gopher fan and then in eighth grade I was like, oh, I want to go to Northwestern and so I became a Northwestern fan so like this is like my two teams kind of like when I was growing up competing and Like I'm gonna root for Northwestern But like at least at least there's like a minor hedge where I can like cheer up seventh grade gym if they do lose Yeah, I'm really my my ideal is that Northwestern wins this week and then Minnesota beats Wisconsin the next week Which would push my you know, Wisconsin nine win under nine wins Which you know would basically be a miracle push given how they started the season. Yeah So that's what I'm hoping for There is actually still a scenario in which Illinois plays in the big 10 championship game against Ohio State Which I would find to be the most hilarious thing that's ever happened So I kind of want that to happen. I'm rooting for chaos. That's all I can say Well, I just want the chaos went from a 12 to 15 and a half point dog At Iowa this week Miracles can happen it. That's all I will say So we're gonna bring in Ian Cameron in just one second as mentioned You can find all his work at sportsbook review and a visa and he also has a patreon called the ice guys breaking down NHL I can find that on his Twitter page at Bo bano We'll talk with Ian about week 13 of college football We'll talk a couple of big conference games there and of course some college basketball hockey and the gray cup to make sure you get That podcast to our NFL podcast tomorrow as well Make sure you subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts and while you're there Please leave a rating and review as well because those do help us out a ton NFL podcast be up at the regular time tomorrow talking with Donnie Seymour about week 12 of the NFL But before we bring on Ian, we have to go back to last week's show We had to go through our college football picks and we had an MVP bet closed last week for color for baseball And it wound up being closer than it should have been so we'll break that down in just one second covering the past All right last week here on covering the spread on the college football addition We had add on to talk about what his numbers had for the week We mentioned to lean on Auburn plus three, but you said the line is pretty efficient Georgia did win and cover there just to lean we had mentioned the under on Michigan versus Michigan State of 44 Michigan won that game 44 to 10 So I did that game did go over and Ed it was kind of what we had talked about before you talked about how The ground game works one week the passing game works next week this time it was back to Shay Patterson What do you see in that game from Michigan? Yeah, I mean I Will talk about this in covering the future, too. I mean Michigan's passing game had an exceptional week I mean even if they would have played like We had expected it to all year and the numbers were remarkable in that game and and no one here in Ann Arbor I mean everyone kind of an Ann Arbor agrees, you know, this is kind of the dream game that you play in a rivalry game And so yeah, I think it was an exceptional performance by Michigan You know didn't help out being under the 44 points there, you know, I think I think Michigan State's offense did exactly what I thought they would do against Michigan's defense But it didn't work out on the other side of the ball. So so there's that I think the process of the bet was correct because Michigan State's offense Like you said did exactly what you expected and you needed a Shay Patterson freak out day in order for that To get to go over and you got it. Oh, yeah. Oh freak out day to go over. Yeah. Yeah, right I thought you're talking like freak out like bad. No. No, no, no, no, like I just needed them to perform at what they had performed all year for To be like a 23 to a 10 kind of win or a 20 to 10 kind of win But that's not that's not the way it turned out. Yeah And said you got a 95th percent how they had to shape Patterson and I'm sure the the people around you'll be very happy about that Even if you did wind up going in the over I had the over on Clemson versus Wake Forest at 59 and a half There were only 20 points in that game with a couple of minutes left before halftime and I gave up on it at that point It did get kind of close. I the final score is 52 to 3 Clemson scored twice to put it at 34 points at the half Then they really came out firing the second half so they scored 52 Wake Forest had three. I Had too much faith in the Wake Forest offense bluntly I was hoping for just one touchdown out of them. Basically that never happened you know Clemson I Think that maybe I need to give more faith their defense. I like their defense a lot But I thought the Wake Forest offense could do something here. So The process may not have been correct. I may have been overvaluing your the Wake Forest offense But it did at least get close So I felt a little bit better about it at the end of the day But Clemson's offense man, like they just keep torturing people now I know Wake Forest isn't good and they haven't played many good defenses But is it enough where you are changing your view of this Clemson offense given how much they struggled at the beginning of the year? Yeah, I mean, I think they've looked good on I mean I did a little bit I talked a little bit about Trevor Lawrence when when I looked at the their college playoff odds and I think what a lot of people Thought was that he was being a little too aggressive and that's what some of the turnovers came in early But it but it you know A lot of you know by completion percentage by yards per Completion, you know those numbers are all better than they were last year and you can kind of figure out I mean, I guess you kind of have to compare the competition as well, but yeah, I mean the Clemson offense looks like like They're they're good and not not good But great what you expect out of an offense led by Trevor Lawrence and you know I'm definitely putting you know, I'm expecting Clemson to be there Not only make the playoff, but like contend for another title exactly and I think that you phrased it correctly We're like, you know, we need to you know Look at things the way that things have changed and be willing to have faith in them once again They were a good offense early in the year, but they become a great one recently The other thing we had here for covering the past was actually from our first episode of covering the past or Covering the spread we talked or I talked about Alex Bregman as a potential AL MVP winner at the time He was 13 to 1 to win the MVP award and Mike Trout was I think like minus something insane And start part of the thought process was it's July We don't know what Mike Trout's health is going to be the rest of the way because he was actually dinged up at the time And Mike Trout did wind up getting hurt in September But he had lasted long enough where he had built a big enough cushion Where his gap between Bregman and him was big enough where Bregman couldn't overcome it But Bregman did fit a second in the AL MVP voting. He had 13 first place votes and he also had 335 total points in the voting whereas Trout had 355 so it wound up being really close and I feel good about getting him at 13 to 1 obviously given how close it was and I Also feel pretty good at the process. So I was happy with this one ad I was really hoping he would pull it out. I didn't think he deserved it I thought that Trout did deserve it in like if our voter I would have voted for Mike Trout But I was pretty happy with how things played out there. Yeah for sure And and I mean I think especially when you're looking at futures the best you can hope for is that your process is right and That you hit, you know one in ten of those types of bets, right? Exactly and we'll talk about another one in covering the future later today with some longer odds We can hope for in April if you want to get in on the action Check out the Fandals sportsbook and place your first bed today if you lose Fandals will give you a refund up to five hundred dollars in psych credit visit sportsbook.fandals.com for more details terms and conditions apply Must be 21 plus and physically present in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia or Indiana gambling problem call 1-800 Gambler let's bring on Ian Cameron now again find him on Twitter at B-o-b-a-n-o You can find his work at the ice guys on patreon and also talking to NHL there and also on sportsbook review and Vincent let's bring out Ian to talk a little gray cup and get you set for week week 13 of college football Covering the present Let's bring Ian Cameron on into covering the spread Ian It is a hyper busy time of year for you your Hamilton tiger cats are in the gray cup this weekend So thank you for taking time. How you doing today? Doing great guys good to be on the show with you. And yeah, if you're not busy in November I don't know what you're doing with your time if you're in this type of line of work. Yeah, it's insane I've gotten very lucky because I do a lot of golf and NASCAR and those are both winding down now So I feel very lucky, but we're gonna talk to you about the NHL college basketball But before we do that you have if you're watching the video version You can see that Ian has the Hamilton proud sign hanging up behind him for the Hamilton tiger cats They're facing Winnipeg So I want to hear your fan perspective on it But also from a betting perspective any lean on this game for the gray cup this weekend It's it should be a great game guys because I thought Hamilton and Winnipeg was gonna be probably a good chance to be The great cup before the season began Calgary stampedeers have been the team that have really dominated the Western division for years I thought they were a little bit vulnerable a little bit down from where they've been especially on defense and approved To be the case they lost to this Winnipeg team in the Western semi-final a couple of weeks ago And Hamilton's been the class of the CFL and I'm not saying that as a home or I'm saying that because it's a fact They're 15 and 3 on the season The best record in the CFL probably the most complete team in the league offense defense special teams an Amazing job to get to this point guys considering Jeremiah Missoli their number one quarterback went down to injury early in the season I know the Tycat fans around me friends of mine's panicking Santa seasons over or all because we thought we could get to the great cup before the season But now Missoli's injured how are we gonna get there now? And I said calm down. I know our backup I know him. Well, he was a great college quarterback I made a lot of money backing his Tulsa teams and betting a lot of overs years ago Mr. Dane Evans under his tutelage at the quarterback spot We would be just fine and sure enough here's Dane Evans taking over I believe in week four of the season And he's been tremendous for us at the quarterback position. He's taken a hold of the offense He's found great chemistry with his receivers great offensive line has given him protection to throw the football downfield All season long. We've got a great defense the defensive line I think it's the best in the CFL can get after the quarterback And we've just been able to ride that up both sides of the ball getting to this great cup game And it's just been it's well coached team with Orlando Steinhauer Winnipeg's a really good team too. I mean their offense. They lost their quarterback early in the season Matt Nichols they went with Chris Trevler although his passing ability is sort of Negligible it's not great So they went out and got Zach Kalaros Who was a former Hamilton tiger cat years ago and actually was with Saskatchewan to begin this season But they cut him because he's been an injury plagued guy over the years He's had one injury after another hasn't been able to stay healthy But Winnipeg picked him up and he's played really good In just what two three starts for Winnipeg since they got him and here he is starting against his former team in the great cup So great storyline there should be a great football game We've got Hamilton what three three and a half point favorite in this game right now total 51 and a half I think with the way these two teams have moved the ball and the way both teams can score on defense and special teams They're really good on those two phases of the game as well. I think I would go over the total in this one I think you'll see some points I think I'm not going in front of Hamilton because they've been the far superior team all year in this league They're 2-0 against Winnipeg head-to-head this year as well But you know Winnipeg's been great in the underdog role 8-1 against the spread So that's why I'm a little bit leery of laying points against Winnipeg when they've been just a cash cow as an underdog All season so I think Hamilton wins in the three to six point range and the game will go over the total And it's on ESPN 2 I tell you guys check it out. It should be a really good CFL great cup title game That's awesome. So yeah, and it's obviously a busy time for you. CFL great cup not to mention NFL college football College basketball just started and you're a big NHL guy as well Tell me about your process this time of year in figuring out all of these sports Yeah, and it was one of those situations for me where I you know I've been in doing this for seven years now and it got to the point up to about a couple of years ago Especially as media responsibilities add up article responsibilities that you got a right and put together for various publications add up In recent years it got to this point of the year where I tried to be jack-of-all-trades I tried to be where all kinds of different hats, you know Pro and college football pro and college basketball hockey try to do it all at this time of year And I got to the point two years ago where I got to cut something out of the rotation There's just not enough hours in the day not enough hours and time available to adequately and accurately handicap all these sports So NBA regular season is what ended up biting the dust for me. I just you know, I had to push it to one side There's too much going on with both footballs College basketball, which and you know very well, it's very intensive keeping up with college basketball hockey at this time of year, so NBA regular season cutting that out has really been the crux of me streamlining my process really is eliminating that one sport Now I do bed and handicap NBA at playoff time and I do that because it's April You know, and there's a lot more time available at that time You've got just NBA playoffs, which is only a few games NHL Stanley Cup playoffs, which is only a few games You know college basketball season is over by that time MLB is just starting and it's not, you know Loaded card on a daily basis so I've got the time where I think I can put in to Making good plays and make doing good at making good handicapping decisions when it comes to NBA playoffs But my streamline process has been eliminate NBA regular season keep everything else at this time of year and it's been working out well It's beneficial to know where your strengths are and I think identifying where you want to cut down I think that having that self-awareness is definitely a key Let's talk about the NHL bit because we haven't gotten to talk a whole lot NHL on the show We talked a little bit about it earlier in the year But how things been going for you so far in the NHL and what are some things that think that give you an edge as a Better when it comes to NHL. Yeah early in the season Certainly you have some opinions of teams that all improves teams that will regress from last year We really go with a lot of those and some of those have been working out well So far this season you look at you know a team like the Edmonton Oilers I was able to cash in with them last night. They're a surprise team for sure This was a brutal hockey team last year. They changed the coach Dave tippets there now Largely the same personnel which is interesting because that's the same personnel that was not a very good team last year But the coach comes in Implements more of a defensive structure, you know stress is playing much better defense, which that Edmonton team had to do You know last year and they weren't able to so just being able to pinpoint those teams that have improved and sort of regressed That's been thing totals are a very Profitable endeavor for me when it comes to NHL riding total streaks. Look at the Washington Capitals They were recently on a what 13 and 1 over the total streak in the last 14 games betting markets and odds makers are asleep at that at this time of year because they don't put as much time in the Hockey there's no way they do, you know, they're worried about NFL college football NBA college basketball It's a busy time of year So this Washington capital over the total run really flew under the radar and not really noticed or picked up on By odds makers and I'm able to capitalize on that total streaks or something that are really Something that I really can and there's teams every year in this league where you can ride them either over or under games on end And there's very little adjustment made in the short term Interesting and we talked about how it's tough for us this time of year to focus on anything But it's tough for the books too And I think that's a good point that you made there with regards to NHL because you're right like they're not going to Prioritize that over all the other sports. It definitely does help this time of year No, we're all stuck in the college basketball here and we've got a couple weeks of data on each team right now And that's significant Which teams for you have deviated the most heavily from your prior what you expected going into the year with those teams And do you expect those deviations to continue going forward? Well from a disappointing standpoint a team that I thought was going to be better and certainly so far has in fact It's been a disaster compared to what I thought they would be coming out of the gate. It's Texas, San Antonio I know that team's not gonna You know, yeah, it's not it's not North Carolina or a Duke or our conference team But we talked about every college basketball team and I handicapped every college basketball team and UTSA has been a huge disappointment They brought a tremendous backcourt onto this team a team that was able to score the basketball Well, their offensive efficiency has been lousy this season their defense has been non-existent They were absolutely plowed and just and blown out multiple times including by Oklahoma to begin the season This is a text of San Antonio team. It's not just me There's a people that I respect that are college basketball bettors and handicappers as well It really thought the roadrunners would be an improved team that hasn't happened 0-1-5 this season I don't believe they've covered a number this year if they have it's been one at most It's just been a very disappointing team now what I do how I handle a team like this is you know What I'm wrong once or twice with them betting on them and I lose I'll just leave them alone let them try to work things out see if there's An uptick on the horizon with a team like that it hasn't happened yet But I think some a point that I want to stress out to people watching here is that and this you're gonna see this every year in College basketball every year doesn't without fail this happens You're gonna see a team get absolutely crushed in non-conference play, you know that they look terrible They have a horrible record January late December rolls around conference play and that team suddenly transforms into something totally different And all of a sudden something clicks, you know Familiarity opponents that they're used to playing and all of a sudden that team that was lousy in non-conference play is Completely devalued from a point spread perspective come conference season and they go on a tremendous point spread run So we could have a situation like this with UTSA maybe once they get back into their CUSA season You know in December and January look out Maybe this team after getting you know Roughed up and bashed against the wall here in non-conference play to begin the season watch them go on maybe an 8 and 2 ATS run to open conference play. I've seen these kind of examples countless times and it happens year after year It's about finding out which teams those are and if you do that that's a good strategy I look for so when conference season rolls around get all that struggle early in the season out of your system And then all of a sudden be a value-laden point spread team That sounds good, so you and we brought you on here mostly talk about some college football games We got a big one Penn State going to Ohio State Ohio State's been particularly impressive this year They're eight and a half eighteen excuse me eighteen and a half point favorite in this game Penn State Has been good, but maybe not so much in the last couple weeks total at 57 What what are you seeing in this game? What I'm seeing is I've got concerns for that Penn State defense coming into this game I mean you look at the last two weeks guys Indiana's moving the ball up and down the field against them Peyton Ramsey was tremendous at the quarterback spot They're able to run the football pretty effectively the Hoosiers in that game Penn State had opportunities to pull away and that defense didn't give them the stop to allow them to pull away in that game Which I'm happy about because I took Indiana plus the points last week in a spot that I was very concerned about for Penn State after Losing the Minnesota the previous week and then of course the aforementioned Minnesota game I mean that Penn State defense was shredded really by Tanner Morgan through the air By the running game, which was absolutely terrific as well for Minnesota was that balanced offense The Penn State defensive line was bullied a little bit at that's a concern Now you're going on the road and you're facing this Ohio State team with Justin Fields at quarterback has been terrific But their offensive line has been good and they have been blowing people off the line of scrimmage all season long That's why this offense has been tremendous and seeing Penn State's defensive line Lose the battle in the trenches in back-to-back weeks to Indiana and Minnesota, you know teams that are Pretty decent offensively, but don't have that offensive line play or the potency that Ohio State does That's a concern big time for me coming into this game The problem for me guys with backing Ohio State here is there's a tax involved like there's no the Secrets the cats out of the bag everybody knows this is a phenomenal Ohio State team in normal instances This could be a line where Ohio States, you know laying less than two touchdowns But because they've been dominant they've been blowing teams out left and right all of a sudden now You're laying more than two touchdowns with Ohio State They've got to win and blow out fashion to cash a ticket here and it's not like Penn State is horrible They're they're a good football team. It's just they've had some defensive leaks as of late. So it's a conundrum game for me I'm not going against Ohio State period end of story. I'm not they have been that dominant They've been that strong and I keep recollecting in my mind guys that these two Road underdog blowout lost spots that James Franklin and Penn State have had in recent years against The team that is in Ed Fang's neck of the woods, Michigan I remember the last couple of years and Jim Harbaugh in Michigan would just destroy this team I don't trust Penn State enough in this matchup to take them plus the points But it's too much of a tax for Ohio State to lay the points I do like the over in this game and we're seeing the total move up to 57 and a half I agree with that Penn States and above average tempo team So is Ohio State the Penn State defense has sort of come apart at the seams and as good as Ohio State's Defenses look this year guys. Look at who they played lately Rutgers, Maryland. I mean some really really problematic Anemic offenses at times. We're gonna be tested a bit by Clifford They're gonna be tested a bit by journey Brown the running back for Penn State who's been pretty good So I think Penn State will score some in this game and Ohio State takes care of the rest and this game ends up over 57 and a half points and I think something to back up your Concerns around the Penn State defense are that Indiana game that was about their starting quarterback like Michael Penix, I believe you just had surgery before that week. I got injured in the Northwestern game So I know that they're the quarterback they were using had had exposure earlier in the years It's not as if they were starting some scrub, but when you see that Indiana team move the ball and now you to face Ohio State on the road. It's a pretty daunting task there. Oh Question now and Penix was good, but the good news is, you know, Penn State I don't want to give Penn State too much grief and Criticism for that performance because Peyton Rams. He's been a multi-year starter now with Indiana He's been with the program for many years as an experienced player He played very well actually when he started against Penn State last year as well They only lost by five in that game last year against the Unintending Alliance So Peyton Rams. He's a capable quarterback, but the problem is Penn State's defense. I don't know if it's wearing down Maybe the the depth maybe is starting to get to again when you get late this late in the season This is when defense is start to wear down And I think you're starting to see some of that for Penn State and unfortunately This might be the wrong time for them to be facing this absolute jug or not offense That Ohio State's got with Justin Fields playing at such a high level. So, you know, I'm not strong on the side guys But I think the total going over is definitely worth a look here Yeah, yeah, and you bring up a really good point about Ohio State's offensive line This unit was bad last year lose four of those five guys a lot of question marks coming in and they've bad They're back to the the machine of before last year in terms of running the ball. They've been able to run the ball with Dobbins, so Yeah, a great point there Yeah, would you care to like, you know, I'll say an else you've been pretty much, you know in terms of performance this year the two Top teams in the nation. How would how do you view those teams and or do you view those teams as the top two in the nation? I do but LSU to me still gets the edge They faced a gauntlet, you know, they face some pretty good defenses as well in the essence Not that Ohio State hasn't but I think LSU's faced a pretty damn good schedule When you look at who they've had to go up against they've had to face Florida's defense, which is pretty good They've had to face Auburn's defense, which is pretty good They've had to face Alabama whose defense is not good as it's been compared to recent years There's no doubt. This is an Alabama defense It's a little bit down from where they've been in years past under Sabin But still I mean a tough environment like that in Tuscaloosa and they went in there and just dominated don't be fooled by the final score I mean the first half was all LSU and then, you know, maybe get complacent and let Alabama back into the game But LSU was full marks for that performance So I'd have to rate LSU a little bit ahead of Ohio State The one thing that's the one thing that would be concerning me about Ohio State and laying the 18 and a half, too Is that you know, they have not been tested by anybody as good as Penn State in a while They've had a lot of mediocre competition Nebraska was supposed to be a big game for Ohio State and a good test for Ohio State and Nebraska's just had a terrible season massive disappointment You talk about one of the most disappointing teams in college football this year Nebraska's got to be at or near the top of that list without a doubt with what people expected out of Scott Frost because they saw him in What his second year at Central Florida make that big leap didn't happen for him down there in Lincoln So Ohio State, you know, this is gonna be one of the big best opponents. They played in weeks We'll see if they're able to get the job done and again, they can't just win this game They got to win big if they're gonna cash a ticket. So pretty efficient spread here at 18 and a half We do like the over at 57. Let's move on to Texas A&M at Georgia Georgia is a 13-point favorite. The total here is 45 points and Georgia has rebounded well from their loss You know, they've won four straight, but the offense has been sputtering quite a bit So do you think that Georgia who is number four right now in the college football playoff committee rankings? Do you view them as being lit as legit as the committee does? George is a Georgia offensively, I don't know if they're fourth in the in the college football This Georgia offense has been underwhelming to say the least most of the season It's been pedestrian Jake Froms not put up the numbers that we expected the running game with Swift hasn't been as a dynamic and explosive I think as we thought it would be it's been a Georgia team That's been kind of disappointing in that regard and this to me screams like as much as I like the over in the first game We talked about I'd probably lean to the under here in this game with Georgia and Texas A&M I don't look at Georgia as a team that marches the football up and down the field this year They've had multiple chances to show their ability to potentially do that against Defenses that are worse than Texas A&M and at times They've struggled even in those games to consistently move the football and finish off drives in the red zone with touchdowns They've settled for field goals a lot That's been another issue for Georgia's offense throughout the course of the season and on the flip side, you know Texas A&M 2 in this point spread range where they're you know catching nearly two touchdowns here in Athens between the hedges You know, that's a point spread range that I'm very leery of going against Texas A&M and Jimbo Fisher's teams have been good Usually catching points in the past. The reason I don't love A&M as much as I love the under in this game Is because Kellan Monde is a mistake waiting to happen usually against a good defense. That's just the way it is He's a solid quarterback But in terms of do I trust him to step up in class against the better defenses in college football? No, I do not no I do not because we've seen too many instances where moves the ball a little bit and then pressures on him and he Chucks the football into coverage Interception and I worry that defensive touchdown happens for Georgia in this game against A&M And Monde who I think can be sometimes a mistake prone force the football make the wrong read make the bad throw at the wrong time That's a big time it concerned for me in this game So if I had to I take the points with A&M because I do think Georgia is a little bit overvalued But I like the underwits I think 44 and a half was the total the last I checked it's gone down a little bit from the open But I think there's still enough value it can slide under the total 44 and that's pretty low for college football But I don't want the over in this game Interesting Ian any other games that's on the board that you like for for a week. What are we 13 in college football? Yeah week. I like temple plus the points at Sinsey. It's a good a AC match up here Cincinnati very ugly performance against a South Florida team that I think very little of I mean Charlie Strong is not a good coach I don't think that's a very good program. I don't think they have any sort of quarterback play, especially with the injuries They've had to deal with there If you can stop South Florida running the football You can beat them and Cincinnati was just awful in that game very fortunate to escape with the victory and didn't come close to Covering the number they were laying two touchdowns on the road in that game The only one by three temples just one of those scrappy underdogs And I know they went through a period of time where three games in a row their defense got Absolutely carved up, but guess who they played SMU Memphis in central Florida, you know Any team in that conference is going to get carved up by SMU Memphis in central Florida Those are the three best offenses by far in that a AC conference Cincinnati's not an explosive offense temple has struggled with speed speed on the edge a Dynamic wide receivers that can get off the ball and get you know behind the secondary Cincinnati doesn't have those kind of playmakers, you know a Desmond Ritter is a Ham and Egg or quarterback. He is I mean for Cincinnati. He's okay, but this is not an explosive offense This is I think a matchup the temple can handle so definitely one of the ones I'm looking at his temple getting ten and a half in that game Alrighty that is Ian Cameron. Make sure you follow him on Twitter at B-O-B-A-N-O just spelled out there. It's a lot easier B-O-B-A-N-O Ian. Good luck with the gray cup I hope that everything goes well for Hamilton in that game Hopefully both from a betting perspective and as a fan perspective, but enjoy the game Enjoy good luck with all your NHL and college basketball picks to and hopefully we can talk to you again here soon All right guys a great being on with you. Have a great day. Yes. Well, thank you Covering the future All right big Thank you to Ian Cameron once again for swinging on by a talking week 13 at college football and the gray cup and Ed I like having people like like Ian on because again, I know nothing about the CFL I am probably the type of American who Canadians hate because like my exposure to the CFL is from when Ricky Williams was there and When Johnny Manziel was were there But I like to do it. No. No, it was not But like it seems fun like I like the rules tied to it. Yeah Yeah, it's supposed to they say it's a better game because receivers can hit the line of scrimmage Running and it's what three downs instead of four. Yeah So but I do not know much about the CFL at all It was nice to have Ian on and school us a little bit in the story lines going on in the great cup and Yeah, I'll try to find time to maybe watch a little bit of it if I can figure out what time it is on Sunday I might have to do that too Because it could be a fun game. He he sold me on it. I guess he sold me on it being a fun game So hopefully the tiger cats do well for Ian as they thank you for him coming on today We'll get into our covering the future in just one second But first Ed and I always preach searching for the best value in betting on games Well, look no further than the new odds comparison our engineers have developed over at number fire calm odds fire is the premier odds comparison experience across major bookmakers in the regulated US market compare odds quickly Identify the best value and even examine first-party fan dual data all in one place Never settle always get the best odds check out the experience for free now on number fire or at odds fire Com gambling problem call one eight hundred gambler Let's dive in now to covering the future and Ed we talked about UMass in Northwestern earlier today Which means that we have to talk about Rutgers. I think that's kind of like that's that's what we have to do like legally So you're gonna talk about this Rutgers game this weekend against Michigan State. What do you see in that game? Yeah, I think at this point in the season a way to find value is to look for teams that have have kind of gone through Some exceptional circumstances. Yeah, and one of those teams is Michigan State Two weeks ago. They lost to Illinois, you know, had a huge lead in the first half and and managed to blow it To Illinois. I don't think that performance was indicative of Illinois's skill level I'm still not sold on that team at all and the numbers really liked Iowa minus 12 earlier this week However, that line is going up to 15 and a half So obviously less value there and it definitely scares me off once it goes through through the number of 14 But you know, it was it was a bad game two weeks ago for Michigan State's defense It was a bad game again last week for against Michigan. We already talked about it. Shea Patterson had a remarkable day It was a day that he kind of as a Michigan fan you kind of dream of and you can talk to any of us and be like Yeah, that was that was an exceptional performance I don't think that is really indicative of where Michigan State's defense really is. I know they have some injuries Joe Bacci's out one of the starting quarterbacks might not play but They they they really only need to kind of show up in this game against Rutgers You're kind of getting the ultimate cupcake offense in Rutgers They're on the third string quarterback this year. They're already near a bottom five type unit When you when you look at their numbers over the course of this year My model really likes under 44 in this game and and I think it's right I think the markets are overvaluing a little bit the too bad performance that that michigan state has had Over the last two weeks But I don't think that's really enough like one thing I want to check is you know The model that I have that calculates the total is based on yards per play And I've talked a lot about on the show like there's there's a random component to yards per play that It's basically not as good a predictor as something like success rate So what I've started to do with these totals is to to look at the success rate numbers and how they compared to the yards per play And essentially for a defense like if you're going to go with an under you want a defense that looks better At success rate than they do by yards per play That means they're probably better than their yards per play numbers suggest and that's what we see here Michigan's defense is 19th in my adjusted success rate yards per play They're a little bit worse in terms of of 25th. So they're probably a better defense a little bit of the same story for ruckers 98th and success rate 98th and adjusted yards per play You would also like to see the same trends on offense It's not quite the case Michigan state's offense looks a little bit better in success rate than they do by yards per play So 67th compared to to 82nd that that unit's probably a little bit better But I do like the under here, you know the spread is almost 20 points This is a type of game that's going to slow down in the second half of michigan state's up like 30 to nothing or 30 to 7 And I feel pretty comfortable You know, I mean there's always this issue of michigan state team like are they giving up on mark dan tonio? Is it dan tonio's last year? What is the site? You know, what is the state of of this team? But the only way I worry about it is if the defense is giving up and the the offense hasn't I don't really see that being the case. I'll take under 44 or whatever whatever fan duel has it at this point Yeah, I don't think that even a Defeated michigan state defense would give up that many points to ruckers So I think that that would if they have given up it would just kind of bolster your point Like it's maybe a 20 to three game at that point So I think that ruckers would have a hard time moving the ball on anybody So I think that that's a pretty valid way of looking at it I want to talk to you though about your success rate model because obviously We had to wait a little bit deeper into the year before we could have those adjusted numbers for this year Does that give you extra confidence when you have an additional check an additional way to look at things? You know because you're talking about Comparing it with what your yards per play model says Does that help you have confidence in a bet now that we're at this point in the year and you can kind of Check two separate methods for looking at things Yeah, for sure, you know like I think It's one of these things if we had a hundred games this season Right, you know yards per play and success rate would converge By game 99 game game 100 right like they'll get to the true value of what these units really are but unfortunately, we don't have 100 games and so You know based on work that I've done based on work that bill connelly has done we we tend to we want to try We just trust the success rate more. Uh, it's not you know, it's not as prone to one play Um, if if you get one play wrong or maybe even if your data is missing a play That's fine if you're looking at success rate if you're missing a 90-yard bomb in yards per play that that can really impact things Uh, especially in a game You know say you're a bad offense and you you happen to be playing a good defense And you get a bomb in that in that game or you get a uh an explosive play like that That can really change where your rank is over the course of the season. So Yeah, we definitely want to look towards both numbers knowing that the yards per play rank is probably going to Draft towards what the success rate says Okay, so we have the under on michigan state versus ruckers at 44 For me I want to talk about the nfl draft because this week fendall sportsbook released the odds for each player to go As the first overall pick and not shockingly joe burrow is plus 100 that makes sense chase young is plus 175 and then justin herbert is three to one Which I think is reflective of which teams will be picking at the top They're probably going to want quarterback to a tongue of a loa is 11 to 1 and I think that is long enough to account For the ambiguity around his injury because we know that tuo will not play anymore this year But his draft profile as a prospect is really good If you look at his final year adjusted yards per attempt number, it is 13.4 That would top kyler murray as the highest ever for a first round pick if tua does go In the first round joe burrows at 12.2 That ranked fourth all time assuming that tua is also a first round pick Justin herbert is a 9.8 if we look at Quarterbacks taking the first round since 2000 there are 56 of them and seven of those 56 have had an aya Higher than 10.5 in their final full year in college All seven of those guys were either the first overall pick or the second overall pick and that does include sam Bradford Who had a shoulder injury during his final year? His number came from his second to last year because I think he only had 68 or so pass attempts in his actual final year If we look at the five quarterbacks who had a final year total qbr higher than 90 This is a smaller sample because the qbr data does not go back as far There have been five quarterbacks who were taking the first round whose final year total qbr was higher than 90 Marcus mariotta was the only guy there who did not go first overall He went second overall and tua is a 94.5 there which leads the nation so basically if you have elite college stats and College evaluators town evaluators say that you should go in the first round You're gonna go near the top even if there are some questions You know mariotta was the system sam Bradford. It was his health Of course, this also does apply to jo burrow But he's also about a year and four months older than tua And if we assume that that jo burrow does play in the sdc championship game and Makes the college football championship game burrow would have had at least 10 pass attempts in 28 games tua had 27 at a younger age and that does matter you In general older inexperienced quarterbacks are less likely to hit Then younger guys who may lack experience and burrow is older than tua and has a similar level of experience So if tua were fully healthy I would think he'd be favored over burrow to be the first overall pick and to me He'd be a big step above herbert as well Adam she after reported this week that the expectation is that tua will be able to resume athletic activities in about three months Which would be the middle of february the nfl draft is in in april Tua can start throwing once again in the spring and that's a lot better timeline Then what we had heard earlier for tua, you know everyone's talking about bo jackson This is a different situation It sounds like the timeline for tua is a lot better and that could always go awry because this is a major surgery and It's not a lock that that teams clear him medically But I think this number really does account for that at 11 to 1 if tua were fully healthy I think that he'd be the favorite to go first overall and I think getting him at 11 to 1 is prudent because There is a potential for that number to be trimmed massively if his recovery goes as planned Based on the timeline that shefter laid out so 11 to 1 to me It seems to be a really good number for tua tanga vailoa to go first overall And any thoughts on this one? I know that it's it's a long way away Well, I mean I draft I agree with everything you said. I I agree that there's value at 11 to 1 with tua What I don't necessarily agree is whether he would be the favorite if he were healthy I think burrow has been so good this year I just think there's a lot of hype with that Unwarranted, but I think there's a lot of hype with with burrow And he's done it. He's certainly done it this year, but he doesn't have a track record in years past You know couldn't beat out doing haskins for the job last year transferred took over lsu wasn't particularly good for half the season was better Second half of last year, but nothing nothing like what he's been able to do this season So if I'm the Cincinnati Bengals and I'm looking for a quarterback I want the guy who's been accurate for longer So tua definitely makes sense there. I'm not a huge Justin Herbert fan. I'm pretty sure I've talked about that on this on this show He's had a great year. Don't get me wrong But I'm always a little cautious when the first thing you say about a quarterback is he's six four and a great athlete So Yeah, I think it's interesting. I mean the only thing I think there is value in this bet. I I always hate Betting on things that involve the judgment of human beings I'd rather have it be the bounce of a ball. Yep as as frustrating as that can be at sometimes But but hey, yeah, I know I think it's a fun thing to think about and I like what you're thinking is Robert maize on the rigger NFL show has this theory that Justin Herbert is too tall to play quarterback, which I find hilarious It's it's a joke. It's like it's like a very clear joke. Like he's too tall And I find that really funny. Robert's awesome So I always enjoy that and I think of that whenever Justin Herbert is brought up Is that is the data point uh Brock Osweiler? Is that is that why he's too? Yeah probably um, but I think that When you compare Herbert to burrow and tongue of Iloa, I don't think they're in the same tier personally um And to back up your point about NFL teams buying into hype That's what we saw at Mitchell Trabisky when he went second overall was He was a one-year starter and burrow effectively is a one-year start like he he started in the past But from a good data perspective, it's a one-year sample. Whereas with Tula, it's You know all of last year too. Well Trabisky played one year at North Carolina. He was older And that's 22. I believe yeah And the thing that that really gets me is that he couldn't beat out marquis Williams for the job the year before right? And marquis Williams last time I checked was not on an NFL roster right, so, you know, either the coaches in north carolina are crazy or But you know, I mean trisky, but Trabisky was very good last year It wasn't great, but he was very you know, he was very good He hasn't been Good this year. No, and now they're pinning the benching on an injury, which I love Yep The intrigue of that, you know, I didn't I thought he just got benched and then I looked at the injury report It's like oh I mean the the the conversation that matt nagy the animated conversation that matt nagy was having with him on the sideline did not seem like hey, I'm pulling you because you're hurt. It seemed more like You're not setting you out to see young man. You've had a good run Enjoy your voyage from here. It will not be with us. Like that's that's the vibe it gave off. It did not give off Hey, your hip hurts Uh, so that was it was weird. Um, like I I feel bad for Trabisky at this point I'd never been a believer in him, but I feel bad because like Obviously that'd be tough to deal with and stuff, but uh the thought process behind taking him second overall was Pretty wild. Yeah, it was pretty wild. Is he gonna play this week? uh, I saw a report that they had not determined yet his practice availability for wednesday and My guess would be that he does play because they're facing the giants and the giants defense is quite bad And if you're gonna give him a bounce back spot, you do it at home against the giants whether I think like six and a half point favorites Yeah, uh, so I would bet that he plays Yeah, and the market seems the confidence booster and the market seems to suggest that He's gonna play if this this number's at seven at least my numbers that include all the Trabisky's stats in just a seven point And if you look at what chase daniel did relative to Trabisky last year and what chase daniel did in that oakland game Your number is correct to have more value in Trabisky than chase dan I know Trabisky's become a meme, but Chase daniel's not a good quarterback and we should keep that in mind as well That is all that we have for today Once again, we're back again tomorrow though to talk with Donnie Seymour about week 12 of the nfl to get that podcast Make sure you subscribe to covering the spread You can find that wherever you get your podcast and you're focusing on apple podcasts Make sure you rate and review the podcast as well. Thank you to those of you who have already done So ed, what's going on for you this week over at the power ink? Uh, just focused on getting my newsletter out tomorrow Sign up for that at thepowerrank.com you'll get a free sample of of predictions I usually say for paying members of the site And uh, talked with michael salfino on the podcast that's going to go up the well by the time this is up that'll that'll be up But he uh, I actually learned of him when kade massie was on my podcast because michael salfino Asked kade to to come up with massie p body, uh, which is which is the system that I that I really respect So that was a really interesting conversation. Uh, that's on the football analytic show this week And I know michael salfino because of fantasy stuff. So that's interesting. I'll check that out The football analytic show is where you can find that and all of ed's work over at thepowerrank.com You can find ed on twitter at the power rank as well. I am at jim sonnis on twitter j i m s a n n e s if you are a dfs player will have our week The week 12 can't keep track week 12 nfl dfs podcast going up tomorrow if you like watching things on youtube We are streaming those live on youtube We'll stream that one tomorrow at 10 o'clock in the morning and you can check that out on the fan duel youtube page big thank you to calvin thea ball for Working the video side of things for today and chopping up clips to the at fan duel twitter account Thank you cal for that and thank you to everyone for tuning in and thank you to ian cameron as well For spreading his knowledge about week 13 of college football. Good luck with your bets And we'll talk to you again tomorrow. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network