 No matter which pitcher you decide to go with night in daily fantasy baseball It is going to require some sort of leap of faith now it could be because of injuries It could be because of lack of sample size could be because a dominant guy has slipped open the year Whatever it may be You're gonna be taking a leap of faith and you have to decide Can I buy into what I've seen so far are the concerns the red flags are acquired sleep of faith enough to Push me away from this person and decide can I still use them? We're gonna try to read through that today try to decipher What there is to decipher and get you ready to make the best decision possible for tonight's slate for a daily fantasy baseball Welcome on into the solo shot. That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire here to break down Wednesday's eight game main slate with lock set for 635 p.m. Eastern for today again lock is at 635 p.m. Eastern on fan dual so Make sure you get those lineups finalized before then to get them in before lock only one weather note for today That is once again in Chicago where you have good pitching weather again for the Cubs in the Padres 44 degree temperatures winds are in from right at seven miles per hour So I downgrade batters there and I would also upgrade pitchers as a result that game 10 degrees colder than any other game on tonight's slate We'll dig into the dicey pitching situation for tonight and much more in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast We do have our PGA podcast for the Mexico open now up find that on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed Check it out to get some read on an interesting fields pretty top-heavy. 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Anthony D. Sclafani is a 10 to we got Logan Gilbert at 10,000 Sandy Alcantara 98 Mackenzie Gore comes in in 97 followed by Hunter Brown in 95 Patrick Sandoval against the A's in 92 and Tony Gonsolin off the IL $9,000 Drew Smiley is the one guy above 8,000. He is $8,800 Now you can hear based on the ordering of that that things are kind of weird Bryce elder Not a huge sample this year, but a very high salary But I Senga has had some issues of walks Anthony Sclafani in a tough matchup Gilbert pushback from yesterday's start Alcantara struggling so far this year as a biceps issue Mackenzie Gore a lot of walks. I could keep going through everybody on this list and outline the red flags They have to me the least concerning red flag and the guy with the biggest upside Should everything be okay is Logan Gilbert and as a result that Logan Gilbert will be my top pitcher for today Now Gilbert was pushed back from a Tuesday start because he had some muscle spasms on Sunday Given though it was reported immediately that Gilbert would start today That tells me he's probably good to go and the fact that he is listed as he's scheduled starter Also gives me confidence that he'll go. He's 25 years old Mariners don't want to risk this. I think we can feel pretty good about him He's facing the Phillies here who are a good team, but they are a team we can target with opposing pitchers They have a 100 WRC plus against righties a 23% strikeout rate and a 7% walk rate So across the board pretty average numbers for this current active roster since the start of last year So their average Gilbert much better than average He's added a splitter this year to his repertoire and he has had some rough starts So it's not all perfect by any means, but the peripherals are very good in those four starts Gilbert has a 2.93 skill interactive. He already his strikeout rate is 31% He's had good walk rates and good hard hit rates as well And he has six plus strikeouts in all four starts. So Gilbert in the starts. He has made has been very good I haven't projected assuming he's healthy for 7.7 strikeouts tonight, which is easily the top mark on this slate So basically what you want to do is decide Have the Mariners actions giving me confidence that Gilbert is healthy and to me I say yes But I also understand if you want to say no So to me, I am going with Gilbert number one and I feel okay about that But I also understand if you're wary due to the injury stuff like that to me He's the number one guy, but with everyone here there will be concerns Now when I was prepping for this podcast yesterday, I thought okay, Bryce elder pitching pretty well so far this year Got a low salary, I assumed and he's in a good match up against the Marlins I don't think that there was a possibility elder might be my value player at least in the $9,500 range instead He comes in at $10,900 So it forces you to go back to the drawing board and decide do I still like elder enough to give him a $10,900 salary. I would like to say no because in sports betting and daily fantasy We should always be price sensitive. It's very important what salaries are and stuff like that Especially for like betting, you know, you want to be price sensitive So I tried to go elsewhere from the second pick. I think that Sandiel Contra is very interesting We'll talk about him and things to watch But I do think that elder does still hold a second spot down despite the high salary as much as it pains me to say that I think that he is still the number two guy now the reason I was interested in elder to begin with is that I mean the matchup helps based on the Marlins. They have a 90 a WRC plus against righties 134 ISO 33 percent fly ball right, which means they have a tough time doing damage against opposing pitchers that's a good thing for elder because He has had that one flaw this year of letting up too much hard contact He's throwing more sliders early in 2023 and his strikeout rate has gone up as a result, which is good But his hard hit rate is 53 percent which can lead to damage in certain spots I'm just not sure this will be the spot to do that given the Marlins lack of power Elders had really good results so far this year with a 1.14 ERA That's not gonna stick there, but it should still be pretty good He has six plus strikeouts in all but one game and that can work on this slate So I would have loved to pivot off of elder here upon seeing his salary being as high as it is But honestly given the matchup given how well he has pitched Given the concerns with literally everybody else. I didn't have a lot of options I think that Alcantra If you get the read that elder will be more popular than Alcantra pivot and we'll talk about Alcantra later on But for right now without knowing what projected roster rates are Then I think I will go elder number two as gross as that may found now when I listed off the starting pitchers for today I listed off a lot of names That's because most guys have very high salaries salaries are tough for today on Fandle Which means all the relevant guys outside of maybe a couple has salaries above $9,000 the one guy who I feel okay about with a salary below that is Drew Smiley, so By default Smiley is gonna be our value play for today And I am fine with that even without putting too much weight on what we saw last week Of course in case you missed it Smiley took a perfect game into the night thinning had a weird Ball that went like three feet and he collided with the catcher trying to trying to field it You know bummer for him, but it was not just that that one That one start it does help because it was his second start against the Dodgers in a row He had ten strikeouts there when seven and two-thirds innings just one hit allowed And he also had the Dodgers to one run his first meeting against them earlier on this year so There's only been one hiccup for Smiley so far and four starts which weirdly enough came against the Reds six earned runs there But since then he's allowed just two earned runs in three starts and this is a turnaround We saw from Smiley beginning last year He's always had issues with hard contact letting up a lot of hard contact and fly balls and it's got him in trouble the fly balls are still there, but He started mixing in a sinker more 11 starts ago and his hard hit rate since then is 34% Which is much better than it was previously so still a lot of fly balls But not as damaging as they were before the strikeout rates for smiling that time is fine It's it's 23% pod rays on the opposing side don't strike out very much So I'd prefer to spend up again Gilbert and Alcantara not that far away from from Smiley But Smiley's pitching well tremendous weather for pitching tonight And he's the one salary one low salary guy I could feel okay about so I'm fine Smiley at 88 even if I don't ultimately wind up using him for tonight because I think I'll prefer to get into the upper range focus on Gilbert elder and Alcantara as my primary core plays at pitcher You think that with pitching being kind of weird and a lot of question marks Stacking might be easier the problem is a lot of the reasons that the pitchers are dicey is because they have High strikeout rates which are good, but a lot of walks which are bad for stacking because it means sewer balls and play So there aren't a lot of perfect stacks The one that I think comes closest to being really nice and more of a template kind of stack is the Dodgers And they will be my top option for today They're facing runs a contraris who is a pitcher with promise and he's had some really nice starts this year But I think in this matchup he may struggle Contraris coming off an eight strikeout outing which came against the Reds He went six and two-thirds and he's let up just one or rod That is one start after he also held the Cardinals in check for six innings So overall, it's been a pretty decent start for contraris Especially with those past two games being both very good one of which in a tough matchup But the peripherals for contraris still Have some issues in them 4.92 skill interactive era 20% strikeout rate and a 9.6% swinging strike rate the bad a ball profile is okay for contraris But really tough test here the Dodgers even with no Max Muncie, no Will Smith So the 122 WRC plus against righties in the current active roster since the start of last year their ISO is 192 41% fly ball rate. So they're not a full strength, but it is a very tough spot And I think we can feel good about the Dodgers here even with contraris seeming to have made some gains So I think the Dodgers the top traditional stack for tonight as in they check the box We typically want to check when looking for pitchers in DFS Contraris has super even platoon splits across his career Which means we can just kind of target guys who are hitting well against righties and honestly right now I know the results may not show it But I think that includes Jason Hayward Hayward has 46 plate appearances so far But in that time his barrel rate is 16.1 percent He has a 71 percent hard hit rate that is not always translated to results as of yet But he's had the power Now because of all the guys being out Hayward is finding himself batting in the middle of this lineup So with salaries 26, he's hitting the ball pretty hard hitting the middle of lineup I'm kind of okay with that, you know, they might not stick probably not going to stick with the way it has But I'm okay with it. So Jason Hayward I think it's a really good play for DFS which feels very weird to say in 2023 But at least for right now, I'm willing to buy in especially with his salary being as low as it is The second stack is also somewhat traditional, but it's based on a lot of factors more so than just a starter That's the angels for tonight. The angels facing Luis Medina making his debut He's just 23 years old and he's looked pretty solid in triple A so far But the angels facing him are in a good spot once we consider the full scope of things and part of that is Medina But part of it is the rest of the team We'll talk about that part in the second but with Medina He was really struggling with walks in the minors. He had a 20% walk rate this year It was 15% in double a last year Which means to let up a lot of base runners and was stolen bases being up this year Base runners are more valuable now Then they used to be if the team was willing to run like the twins don't run But like the angels are willing to do so Plus Medina's swinging strike rate in triple A was 10.1 percent, which is nothing too scary So part of it is Medina, you know just being fine The rest of the stack is how much the rest of the A's roster boosts this stack The A's have the worst active roster bullpen skill interactive You are right in the league since the start of last year and it's not just the worst It is the worst by half a run above ever almost half a run Above everyone else and their defense is below average too So Medina may not go long He may put guys on base when he's out there and the defense won't help him And the guys coming out of the pen behind him are struggling I think that all adds up to make the angels a really good stack for today You have to go beyond just starting pitcher But I think that we should always do that A but B Especially for a team that is out as outliersly bad as the A's I think it makes a lot of sense the A's the angels to me a good stack here It does seem like Brandon Jury may be turning in corner He had a two home run at a couple of nights ago last night Struck a ball really well a hard hit ball. I was kind of a line drive The double dong is against lefty, so it's not perfect But he drew a walk in that two-homer game He hasn't done a lot of that this year Which maybe says he's seen the ball better than he was his hard hit rate is 47% the past week I'm not sure if it's a true turnaround But his salary is still low and we saw Drury do really well over a large sample last year So I'm going to check it out Again the salary is $2,600. That's not too bad. So I'm more willing to Buy in without seeing like full full signals This guy is turning things around when the salary is low and that is the case with Drury So Brandon Drury a quality play for tonight Our third stack is gonna be the Giants. They're facing Steven Matz And I wouldn't stack here on a typical slate But there aren't a ton of great stacks available for tonight I think that makes the Giants viable basically by default And I do think Matz is decent enough. He struggled last year But really good year back in 2021 And some of the building blocks he had to have that good year in 2021 are still in place He's still getting whiffs. He's converting those into strikeouts But he's letting up too much hard contact Through four starts Matz has led up a 46% hard hit rate Which leads to a 6.55 ERA His expected ERA is 5.01 And he struggled with this last year too Before suffering injuries and shifting to the bullpen Matz led up a 38% hard hit rate So his issues with hard contact are a long-running thing The Giants put the ball in the air a lot against lefties They have a 41% fly ball rate So they will strike out And this is a risky stack as a result of that Because Matz is not a bad pitcher But I like the upside enough to give them a swing here And feel okay in doing so And the Giants getting healthier Mitch Hanniger is now back with this team as well That's a positive thing as well But it's the first time this year I've gotten to talk JD Davis Just Dongs Davis He is back He has been bonkers so far Huge home run Layed in that game on Monday 246 ISO overall so far 16.2% barrel rates He struck out too much last year The 16.2% barrel rate last year was last year He just struck out too much and kind of masked How hard he was hitting the ball But the strikeout right this year is down to 25% So I think we're going to see Davis crush lefties I like him even if he slides down the order a bit Now that they're healthier But with it being a leftie I'd expect Davis batting cleanup Maybe third with Hanniger up there as well So always dig in to make sure Guys are going to stay in the game for the Giants But with Davis giving his batting cleanup Against righties sometimes I think he'd feel good about him Remaining in the game throughout So JD Davis really fun play for today The Giants and Mitch Hanniger in that discussion as well Things to watch for tonight Talked about Sandy Alcantra before Let's talk about the dynamics with him right now and why He's not in the top three But also still very much worth considering in DFS He's dealing with the biceps issue But sounds like he should be good to go Last time out Alcantra had nine strikeouts and six innings So he was kind of back to his old self there He's less consistent now But he still has upside He's facing the braves Pretty rough matchup I'm still intrigued by rolling Alcantra out there So if you get the sense that Elder will be popular I would say pivot to Alcantra Feel good about that If Elder will not be popular then it's fine But I want to get that read And if I get the green light to go Alcantra instead I will happily take it The nets are at least worth a look for stacking They're facing Mackenzie Gore Who's looked really good so far this year But still walking a lot of guys That can lead to beginnings It can lead to a lot of access to middle relievers And we want both those things So the nets are not a priority stack But they are definitely one I want to consider for tonight Finally I don't mind considering some A's Right handed batters against Patrick Sandoval Sandoval is doing a good job of suppressing hard contact this year But a lot of walks Not many strikeouts His expected ERA is 4.95 The A's likely I think to be better Against lefties and righties this year So they're worth consideration If you need one guy to fill out a lineup Like Brent Rooker You want to ride that hot street there I think that's totally fine They're just kind of like a roster filler More so than one offer Stack considerations at least for me Let's finish things up here with the Dinger calls For today The boring one Topham Mitch Hannigar being back off the IL For the Giants Typically I go based on salary To decide whether they're boring or fun Hannigar salary is 28 So it's still pretty low But I think he's kind of too good to be in the fun category So we'll go Mitch Hannigar Couple homers and his rehab stints It will make him the boring home run call for today The fun one I'm going to ride with Jason Hayward Again, I think I buy into the small samples On numbers that stabilize quickly Hayward hitting the ball really hard right now Batting pretty high in the order Facing guy who will let up fly balls in hard contact So let's go Jason Hayward Home run calls for today Mitch Hannigar and Jason Hayward That's all we got here For the solo shot for today But we'll be back with you once again Tomorrow breaking down Thursday So don't forget to check out the PGA DFS podcast With myself and Brandon Gadoula You want to play some PGA DFS on Fandall For the Mexico Open If you've got any questions for me I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S You can also follow the Fandall Podcast Network At Fandall Podcast Want to thank you all for tuning in for today Good luck to you with your MLB DFS lineups For tonight We'll talk to you once again tomorrow To break down Thursday's slate This has been the solo shot right here On the Fandall Podcast Network