 Hello everyone, welcome and thank you very much for hanging out with us on the market report with Cointelegraph. I am your host Joe Hall and we are joined once again by our resident experts Marcel Peckman and Sam Borgie. Now Sam Borgie is a business editor at Cointelegraph where he brings over a decade of experience in economic analysis and financial market writing. Marcel Peckman applies his 17 years of experience trading derivatives, options and futures to the crypto derivatives markets. Hello gentlemen, how are we doing this fine Tuesday? Marcel, how are you doing? At the end of January, the first month of 2023 is over. How are you? Well, if we finish the month as we are in Alto, I'm really happy. Not only because of the price increase, but because of the FUD, it's still out there, BCG, pre-scale, Tether FUDs, Binance being investigated, everything continues out there and Bitcoin is going up by 40%. So it means that investors, they simply don't care for the FUD anymore and they shouldn't. So I think that's positive. Fantastic. Good news Marcel, how about you Sam? Positive with you, 40% up in January. It's pretty good, right? Not too shabby. I'm getting a lot of 2019 vibes, which I mean 2019 as a whole wasn't a great year for Bitcoin, but it really kicked off the new cycle. We did see a year over year gain in Bitcoin in 2019. So for me, I don't want to look too far into the past to compare to what's happening now, but I am getting some of that 2019 vibe given the bottom that we saw on November, the potential bottom and now we seem to be recovering. So I have nothing to complain about, but as I mentioned last week, I'm not getting too excited yet. 23K is healthy. I won't say no, but I'm not too excited just yet. Okay, good. This is a nice segue commentary onto the show this week, which is all about whether or not January, whether Bitcoin, sorry, can sustain those gains of January into February into the new month, which starts of course tomorrow. Now, the market report brings you the information you cannot find elsewhere on the web. And today, Sam Marcel and I are going to discuss what's been making headlines in the crypto space, as well as the wider business and financial markets. Most importantly though, we are here for you guys, our loyal viewers to try to help you through these sometimes challenging, sometimes fascinating times, and sometimes maybe it's going to be a repeat of 2019 times. So please feel free to pop a message in the chat just below, hit the like button, subscribe, et cetera, because yeah, we're here to have a conversation. It's not just a one-way street where we're talking at you at home. Do bear in mind that we're giving away a one-month three subscription to Cointelegraph Markets Pro. That's worth about $100. So it's worth interacting with and worth taking part in. So drop a comment and yeah, keep the conversation going for your chance to win. So today's show is going to be breaking down into six or seven parts. We've got the market roundup, which is the weekly highlight video put together by the graphics team. We've got meme time, which is the funny part of the show. We've got market news updates where Sam Marcel and I will discuss what's been making the headlines for the past week. There's a quick crypto tip from yours truly. Then we've got Marcel's trading insight where he brings all of that analysis and insights at providing you with one of those trading tips. And to cap it all off, we've got another tip from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and then the giveaway. So lots to look forward to, lots to look out for. Before we get into this week's market roundup, Gents, is there anything that you really want to express or really want to put out there before we kick off with the weekly roundup? Let's see it. Stay strong. Let's do it. There it is, gentlemen. Interesting week actually when we look back on it now. The first thing that sort of jumped out on me was this idea that institutions are buying. We now know that, of course, Bitcoin is up 40% in the month of January. I think it's going to be a good idea to look at what are the things to look out for in February, which is why we've prepared this wonderful article by none other than our markets reporter, William Suburg. So I'm going to share my screen now to check out what we need to know in Bitcoin this week. This is one of the best sort of pieces of content that Cointelegraph put out if you're a trader. It's basically when you start your day or you'll start your week on a Monday, these are the five things you can sort of plan for and look forward to as they are likely to affect the markets. This is, of course, not financial advice. It's just a discussion piece, but these are really interesting and often significant events. For example, the fact that the Bitcoin price is eyeing up $24,000 with FOMC volatility predicted. The FOMC is, of course, headed up by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. They have a meeting later on this week, which we'll also get to as well. But the main point here is that Bitcoin continues to defy the naysayers and the shortest, those people that think the price is going lower, by spiking ever higher on lower timeframes. There was, of course, the very funny trader, Il Capo, who was predicting that Bitcoin would go lower this week. It just keeps pumping. I don't know why, and I'm hoping that Marcel and Sam will be able to shed some light onto this. Bitcoin remains up a striking 43.1% in January, the best January since 2013. Now, gents, there's five points to go through in this article. I thought we'd look at each discussion point and then move on to the next one together. This first one is the fact that people are still in disbelief about Bitcoin being as high as it is. Are you guys in disbelief? Marcel, you alluded to the fact that you're confident here and that you think that Bitcoin should trade outside of what the FUD says. Why is Bitcoin up so high? Will it continue to hold these levels or tread higher? What worries me, Joe, is that the Nasdaq composite, which is the tech stock index in the United States, gained 10% in January so far. Also, the DXY index, which measures the US dollars against the basket of currencies like the Euro, the British Pound, the Japanese currency, is at the lowest level in eight months. What the market is saying is that we don't trust the US dollar. They're going to have to print a bunch of money to pay for their debt. They're 32 trillion dollar debt. They're going to have to print a bunch of money. So the US dollar is losing value. So everything goes up and the higher the risk adjusted, the higher you go up. Of course, the Nasdaq is kind of risky because this tech stock is up 10%. Bitcoin is riskier. It's perceived as the market as a riskier investment. So it's up 40%. So what worries me right now is that, I don't know, if somehow the Federal Reserve continues raising interest rates or doesn't do the pivot, continues to sell the MBS, the mortgage, back bonds, and assets, that's going to be really painful and really hurt risk markets then Bitcoin could go down. So right now, I'm not excited about the bull run because the correlation to traditional stocks continue to be really high. Okay. Interesting. I mean, you bring up a lot of important points there and one of which segues into what we're going to be discussing now. I mean, for example, in the article it says that Il Capo of crypto, the trader now famous for his misgivings about the recovery, remains short BTC. So there are still lots of traders out there who are short Bitcoin. Probably the most significant event this week is the decision by the Federal Reserve to either hike or maintain interest rates. I'm hoping to bring in Sam with this question. According to the CME Group's Fed Watch tool, there is currently a 98.4% consensus that the Fed will hike by 25 basis points. That is probably one of the most certain predictions out there. I'm guessing you're also thinking we're going to anticipate a 25 basis point hike. And if so, what does that mean? So that's based on CME Group's Fed Watch tool, which gauges traders' expectations around monetary policy. So what that really tells us, it's highly likely the Fed will hike by 25 basis points, which for those keeping track is a much smaller hike than the previous hikes of 75 basis points and 50 basis points. What this seems to suggest is that the Fed is moving towards a place where the benchmark federal funds rate is going to be stable for a while. The fact that they're hiking at a smaller rate suggests that they are somewhat pleased with the path of inflation. The need to hike rates more aggressively seems to be fading as they consider inflation to be somewhat receding. I think markets are looking at this as a somewhat of a soft pivot. It's not really a pivot because they're still hiking, but the pace of the rate hikes or the size of the rate hikes are smaller than they were before. So for a lot of investors, this is a sign that the worst of the rate hike cycle or the magnitude of it has begun to slow. And now we can get into a period of more stability when it comes to the federal funds rate. I think markets are looking at this positively. If this is positive for risk assets, as Marcel mentioned with the NASDAQ, it'll probably also be positive for Bitcoin because Bitcoin is still perceived as a risk asset. So if the Fed hikes by only 25 basis points, I guess that's a positive because it's much smaller than what the rate hikes were last year. But a lot of it is going to be also dependent on what Jay Powell says. Is he going to be jaw boning? Is he going to be moderating his tone? They'll be watching pretty closely on Wednesday afternoon about what Fed's Powell has to say about monetary policy and the economy. Interesting. So although we can be pretty confident that it's going to be a 25 basis points hike, it depends on what this old gentleman in a suit says to the nation about what money is going to do. It is amazing sometimes when you look at the state of the world and you think we can have this call with three of us based on three different continents and yet at the same time, we're still waiting on an old man to say something about the state of money for the markets to react. It just blows my mind sometimes. This is why we Bitcoin, everyone watching at home. And by the way, just a shout out to Ron again, a long time regular listener. Hello, mate. And yeah, the Fed may decide to crash the market. It is a possibility. The chart watch put it at 1.1% likelihood of Fed deciding to crash the market with this 50 basis points hike. Still could happen. 1% chance is a possibility. However, something which flies in the face of that evidence is the profit and loss index from the on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, who do a lot of actually pretty good content and metrics and things. They're basically saying that the Bitcoin price is flashing a buy signal for the first time since early 2019. So actually is echoing what Sam said in the intro statement there that Bitcoin might be an attractive asset right now to buy presumably because they think the price is going to go up. Marcel, is Bitcoin an attractive price to buy right now or is Bitcoin always an attractive price to buy? Well, Joe, I don't like to watch the Bitcoin on a 12-hour or daily candle. I prefer when I talk to, especially to normies, the people outside of the crypto industry, I talk to them, well, you've got to interpret the chart on a two-month or at least three-month VWAP price like that as you're buying every week for three months. So you don't get too much, you still get volatility but not too much. And considering that we just landed 15.5 thousand in November. It was not that long ago and we're closing in to 25,000. Well, there's still some way to go but it shows us that we are on an ascending trend. It doesn't mean that it's going to be a bull run the entire year. It doesn't mean that we're going to reach $50,000 this year but it gives us hope that the bottom is in. So I think it's a good time to continue doing DCA and if you are completely outside, maybe take 5% of your money and put in Bitcoin and forget but don't buy it at once, maybe spread out into two or three months. Interesting. Yeah, always DCA. DCA is the way but yeah, might be a wise idea to take some money off the table. That's actually a nice way of linking into the next story back to the article. Effectively markets or not markets but Bitcoin hodlers are staying disciplined in this market. That is to say that they continue to hold the line. They continue to just sit back, stack sats, staying humble, DCA'ing into these lower prices and as a result of this sort of discipline the coins dormant in wallets for five years or more as a percentage of the overall supply have hit new all-time highs of 27.85%. So that means that 27.85% of the 19.1-ish million Bitcoin that are in the total supply that are totally available to be used, be purchased, to be transacted with are not moving for five years which is a crazy metric. That is to say that over a quarter of the entire supply of Bitcoin is not moving at the moment which means that hodlers are just sitting on their Bitcoin and not doing anything with it because they're expecting, I don't know that one day they're going to use it or one day they're going to give it to their kids. This is kind of what I wanted to ask you gentlemen now. Do you think that we're now at the point of Bitcoin and crypto adoption? This supply that hasn't been active for years and years and years now, do you think it won't actually be exchanged for dollars at some point? Do you think it'll just be used? You'll see these Bitcoin move on the blockchain but they're not moving to an exchange to be swapped for cash. They'll be used for, I don't know, sending to another wallet to be buying stuff with or sending to a lightning wallet to be able to exchange for fruits, vegetables and whatever you buy on your weekly shop. Sam, what do you think? Are we now at this inflection point of Bitcoin adoption or is there still quite a long way to go? I think there's still a long way to go. Now, I do think a certain percentage of this percentage or a certain percentage of the long-term hodlers will have a long-term hodl position. I know I do. There's a certain percentage of my Bitcoin that I simply will not touch ever or for the foreseeable future. I think that's probably going to be the case and I think that when you take a look at the inflation rate of Bitcoin continues to decline, even if we saw a steady rise in the hodler interest or the steady rise in Bitcoin adoption, you're going to see price rise much quicker. I still think that we're a ways off from that inflection point but I think that a lot of the factors going on with monetary policy today with inflation, with the different restrictions that banks are placing on user deposits, all that is going to help Bitcoin's adoption curve as more people realize the value of a decentralized peer-to-peer money. Absolutely. I think the case for Bitcoin has never really been stronger particularly in these times and particularly when, as I mentioned earlier, an old man is about to decide what happens with money. Marcel, we're just going to be on the next segment here which is all about how the sentiment has reached the greediest metric that we've seen for quite a long time now. The fear and greed index, the crypto fear and greed index, which I'm sure if you've been in crypto for a while, you'd be familiar with, but it essentially measures the market sentiment for traders. We flipped into greed for the first time since June, I want to say. Yeah, it's far back as sort of the summer when we had those really low sort of 16, 17, 18k prices. It's since up into the 50s when on January 1st, 2023, it measured 26 out of 100, less than half the latest reading. It does make you wonder, the price has gone up quite quickly and there is some bullish sentiment coming out. Is now the time to take up a short on Bitcoin? Is now the time to sort of take those profits off the table? Is this even a valid metric to consider? What experience do you bring to this reading myself? Sorry I clicked on the screen too quickly there. The fear and greed indicator, to me, looks like a lagging indicator. After we rallied 40% in a month, it started to move from neutral to greedy. So if you're entering right now, you already missed the rally. If you're solely going to base your investment decision on the fear and greed indicator. Having said that, you got to remember that retail traders, they tend to formal after whatever asset has already rallied. So it is possible that as if we get closer to $25,000, investors who missed or who were waiting, oh, there's going to be another deep to 17, there's going to be another deep to 15, there's going to be another. When they see that it continues moving up month after month, so when we reach $25,000, I think FOMO is going to set him. But right now, I think those are 50-50 for a 10% move up or down. So I wouldn't use, I don't recommend using the fear and greed indicator to base your future events. It's good to understand how is the sentiment considering the past 30 days? Nice idea. Yeah, and also the fear and greed index only goes back as far as sort of 2018. So it's a relatively new metric, which is presumably getting better and better as I'm sure it's picking up more and more data points and obviously surveying more and more social media feeds from Discord to Twitter to Reddit, etc. But even when you look back at the price action in say August 2021, when there was that sort of double pump, the fear and greed index isn't that high. And that did feel like peak FOMO as part of that bull cycle, this sort of fake pump up to 69K. I'm just going to check in with a chat to make sure that we've got some long-term friends checking in here. I've got A-Shot Kumar, who was commenting on the FOMC meeting. And yeah, it's true that J-PAL's tone and its comments matter the most. So yeah, effectively agreeing with what Sam was saying there that although we are anticipating this 25 basis points hike, ultimately it's whatever this man says could rock or settle the markets. Okay, let's move on to the second article today, which is really interesting. It actually comes from Sub-Saharan Africa where there's been growing sort of Bitcoin and crypto activity. And it's interesting because in 2022, so last year, the one of the top trends was sort of Bitcoin in Africa. There was Dakar Bitcoin days, the first Bitcoin conference in French-speaking Africa. And then there was Afro Bitcoin, which was the event that people like Jack Dorsey and Jack Mallers attended in Ghana, or Ghana's capital, Accra. And then of course, Nigeria has its first Bitcoin conference this year in March, which is I think it's called Nigeria Bitcoin or something along those lines. So clearly, there's more international interest looking at Nigeria, whereas down on the ground in Nigeria, there's some really interesting goings on such as if you want to get hold of Bitcoin for Naira, so the currency, the local currency in Nigeria is called Naira, then you've got to pay a 60% premium. It sounds like a great arbitrage opportunity, but also an awful everyday disturbance for people living in Nigeria. And this is, to some extent, because the CBN, which is the central bank of Nigeria, introduced new Naira banknotes with the aim of curbing inflation and money laundering. The central bank imposed this deadline of January 24 for Nigerians to exchange their old higher-denomination banknotes for the new currency. So basically there, you've got a piece of paper that people say is worth something to be replaced with another piece of paper that people say is worth something. And from January 24, the old piece of paper is no longer what people say it should be. This is the world of fiat money and this is the world in which we live and which governments can say this paper is worth more than this paper or the other way around. I find it fascinating. I've actually lived in a few countries where they've replaced banknotes like that. I'm sure they had it in Canada, actually, Sam. Were you there when they replaced the old paper money for plastic money, Sam, in Canada? Yeah, it was a pretty disturbing feature. I mean, the money, it looks like clown money, first of all. And it's plastic. Literally, it's plastic. It's fascinating, right? But do you still have the queen or the king even on the Canadian bank money? Oh, yeah, we're still your subjects over here, Joe. So we still, yeah, we still play king and queen here as well. We played that game as well. So yeah, no, it's fascinating. I mean, I know that in the UK, they're going to be swapping out the old queen notes for king notes as the queen died last year. And again, you know, a lot of the digitally native, what they called Gen Z people, I'm sure they'll be looking at this being like, I don't understand why this happens. Well, a lot of us, you know, we look at these fiat habits and behaviors and think this is just bizarre. It's a total fiction. Anyway, back to the crypto market. Marcel, what do you reckon? Are you going to take out, are you going to fly to Lagos this weekend, Lagos, sorry, and start to buy up some Naira and start your own peer-to-peer trade or change? What was your take? Well, Joe, first of all, I want to remind the viewers that when you see these huge distortions, normally there's no profit, there's no money to be made. Because when there's such a distortion for the local traded Bitcoin and the international, either we have a currency restriction, like we have in Argentina, where you can only buy that out $200 per month, or you have taxation, like in Brazil, if I want to buy dollars, I can help as many as I want. But I have to, I have to pay 1.4, 1.5% taxes for government. So it is only natural that Bitcoin trades with a 1 or 2% premium in Brazil. And if there's a limit that individuals can buy or can withdraw from ATMs, as we've seen on Nigeria, then the premium goes sky high. So usually there's no money to be arbitraged. So it's either taxation or restriction to access US dollars. So people use stablecoins and Bitcoin to send money abroad and to receive. So it's only natural that it has a premium. So it may or may not have increased demand in buying Bitcoin, maybe when the first two months when the new law is out, well, you can only buy $200 per month right now of dollars. On the first two months, everybody's going to rush to buy Bitcoin or stablecoins. So there'll be a higher demand. But after this initial phase goes by, this 60% premium reduced, I don't know, 40% or 30%, and it continues over and over that way. So usually there is no money to be made. Okay, interesting. And also, wise. So guys, I know I'm watching at home, don't fly to Nigeria. Usually there's no money to be made on this. Okay. But it's funny, though, because I mean, even if you look at Google Trends right now, they ask what alludes to this, there is a spike in trends. If we look at the worldwide chart for buy Bitcoin, you know, there's a brief peak in the December period and now it's trailed off. However, if you look at interest by region, then Nigeria is 100 of this metric versus Cameroon since Helena, Ghana, Cyprus, etc. So Nigeria is far and away the country that is looking to buy Bitcoin at the moment, which is, yeah, of course, reflected in what the article is picked up on. It's 60% more expensive there. And the last time this happened, as the article notes, was in February 2021 when the central bank decided to regulate financial institutions from providing services to crypto exchanges in the country. So there, effectively, the on-ramp or off-ramp from crypto exchanges into local money was regulated and sort of squeezed, meaning that the Bitcoin premium went up again. So I imagine that if you turn up to a Bitcoin meetup in Nigeria these days, people are going to really want your Bitcoin or they really want your Naira, depending on what the premium is doing. And yeah, it's going to make things very hard for adoption, but also it's kind of fascinating to see that Bitcoin still survives these things and that now to be will come back stronger. I know as well that Nigeria has been in the news a lot because of introducing bills around crypto and Bitcoin. And the story there is, or the skinny there, is that there is one governor or one central banker who is completely against Bitcoin, who they're effectively waiting for him to finish his tenure and then hopefully Bitcoin adoption can thrive in Nigeria. At least this is what my sources in Nigeria tell me, but you'll be the first to know if you check out Cointelegraph coverage. Now, check in the chat and moving on to the third article today. Cardano Green is saying if you can't beat him, join him. Yeah, that is probably a good idea to live by. And also the trend is your friend. I feel like that's the sort of the trading equivalent. I guess we can move on to the third article today. If anyone's watching at home, feel free to drop a comment because you will be in the running to win a $100 equivalent Cointelegraph Markets Pro subscription, which will help you become a better trader. Right, let's move on to the third and final article of today. It's all about our favorite Dogecoin shill and Bitcoin amateur. I think I can say that. Elon Musk, apparently he wants Twitter payments and he wants this system to be built with crypto in mind. Now this came from a Financial Times report that apparently two people familiar with Twitter's plans said that the payments feature will support fiat currencies to start, but be built to accommodate crypto should the opportunity arise. Now, this would be, of course, phenomenal for Bitcoin and crypto adoption. Undoubtedly, it would have some sort of Dogecoin flavor to it. Marcel, is this something that we should take seriously? Because Elon Musk spends a lot of time on Twitter and often we see him tweet things before anything actually happens. He'll tweet and then he'll actually do the change to Tesla or to Doge or to whichever crypto choice. Do you see this as a likely eventuality? Could this really happen? Well, I do think that if Twitter installs or an embedded crypto wallet, it's going to be full KYC. They're going to do everything regulation. So having said that, even if they implement Dogecoin payments, they're also going to have the fiat money in and out and likely other 20 cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, will also be integrated. I don't call this exactly adoption. It's just a wallet or an exchange if it has fiat in and out getting implemented in Twitter, but that's not really adoption. Okay, yeah. I mean, what about yourself, Sam? I know that the FT has sometimes, how do I frame this without being rude to the FT? Sometimes they make assumptions about crypto that aren't best informed or best educated, let's say. What do you think? Is this scoop that the Financial Times has picked up on, is it really to be trusted? You know, I have absolutely no idea and no way to verify, but as we talked about earlier, I mean, Elon Musk, he overpaid for Twitter and that gives him the ability to tweet whenever he wants and he's not shy about tweeting whatever he wants. And he's tweeted plenty of times around Dogecoin and Bitcoin in the past. So I would think that if this were in the works, we would have heard more on Twitter. So that for me is something that's just one of the red flags that I would raise. But I think ultimately he's probably going to be moving in that direction if I were a betting man. He seems to have taken a liking to Doge, even though the rationale for it is a bit suspect because according to him, I mean, wouldn't it be funny if the coin or the token that was created as a joke becomes the standard monetary system? So that's not really a good enough reason for me to want to adopt any asset, but he seems to have been taking a liking into it. So I wouldn't be surprised if we see that kind of roll out in the future. Okay, yeah, absolutely. I mean, I was wondering about the crypto angle to this story. But if you observe the Doge price, which you can actually find on the coin telegraph price index, it's been pumping. And yeah, I guess the link there is that, as Sam explains, Elon loves Doge was always found that meme to be quite funny. And it's about to grace the 0.0 and it's like, no, 0.1 mark, so 10 cents to the dollar. Marcel, is this a good trade? Is it a good time to buy some Doge or is it still completely dependent on the whim of one person? I think Doge is something that's even, it's a coin from 2014. It's been here for over 10 years. It uses the same mining methodology and even the devices of Litecoin. We can say it's secure in mining, but I don't think there's a future for Dogecoin in payments as the Dogecoin holders expect, but you can profit from trading that. I have no doubt on that. I would be lying to say you shouldn't invest 1% or 2% in Doge if you are expecting it. You can do that and you can profit if you are a good trader. I'm not. Yeah, yeah. It makes me wonder if there's any bots built up of, you know, Musk's tweets, anything that mentions Doge, you know, they take out a long, anything that doesn't mention Doge, you always massively short it. There must be these sort of trading algos and bots out there to do this sort of thing. What about you guys in the chat? Do you reckon that Doge is looking good at the 0.1 mark, you know, a bit of a flutter, treat it like betting on a horse at the races? Ron again says no to Doge and Cardano Green says its inflation policy is ridiculous. You're not wrong. It was written up in about, what, three or four hours, wasn't it? The fellow that wrote it up, I forget his name, Shiba Tochi Nakamoto and Twitter, isn't he? Okay. In which case, let's move on to the next segment. Don't forget, guys, there's also a 20% off-markets-pro subscription in the description down below. And if you want a one-month subscription to Cointelegraph Markets Pro worth $100, then comment and share away, interact with us on Twitter, for example, to be in the chance of winning. Now, we're going to move on to the next segment, which is a quick crypto tip from myself. And it's very relevant this week because it's about how to evaluate a crypto project. Now, when it comes to cryptocurrencies, you need to consider a few factors before you decide whether to invest. So whether you're just beginning to get on the ground floor of new crypto projects or you're looking to expand your portfolio, it's helpful to have an evaluation framework handy. Understanding the project's vision, tokenomics, white paper, use cases, roadmap, etc. These are all essential prior to making an informed investment decision. During your analysis of a crypto project, it's important to examine the different aspects of the project to make that informed investment decision. You should, generally speaking, veer away from making impulsive decisions based on emotions, as this could lead to a loss. It's worth mulling over the following aspects instead. What problem is the project trying to solve? How does the project plan to solve that problem? Who is behind the project? And do they have the necessary experience and expertise to address that problem efficiently? Do we even know who's behind the project? And finally, is the technology behind the project sound and secure? Really important questions to consider before investing in that crypto project. So that is your quick crypto tip about evaluating a crypto project. As usual, don't forget to comment, like, subscribe, all those wonderful things. And yeah, I think we're going to move on to Marcel who looks ready and raring to go for his trading insight this week. Marcel, over to you. Okay guys, so today we're going to cover a lesser known indicator because it holds extreme relevance to understand whether retail traders are entering or exiting the crypto markets. It's called the stablecoin premium in Asia. So we're going to measure how the USD or Tether stablecoins are trading in Asia versus the US dollars. First of all, why would the stablecoin trade above of its fair price, meaning if the Chinese won the official currency is trading in the seven, the stablecoin should be trading at seven yuan as well at a fair price. Usually there's no risk involved with the trade and it should be very tight. Maybe there's a half percent premium or half percent discount depending on the fluctuations, but usually when the markets are working fine, when there's no limitations for doing FX trades for any currency, the stablecoin should be trading at fair price, 100% the same price of the official currency. But there are a few cases where it doesn't. For example, when there's a tax to buy dollars, the official dollars, when there's a limit on how much foreign currency someone can buy every month as we've discussed in the case of Argentina, in the case of Nigeria. So in those cases, the stablecoin will also trade at a premium to reflect those additional costs, hurdles or taxes. But if that's not the case, like in China, we don't have the limit on how many dollars you can buy. We don't have a huge tax for converting Chinese Yuan to dollars. That's not the case similar to Nigeria and Argentina. So everyone is free to transact. So unless there's a really huge inflow of retail traders wanting to buy cryptocurrencies, it's going to be trading at fair price 100%. On the other hand, if retail traders are desperate and they want to get cash in their hands, sell the stablecoins and get money in the bank, the stablecoin premium can go negative. So below 100%. So Daniel, I want to share my screen please. So notice on the chart that throughout December, the premium has been pretty stable between 99% and 100%. So that's how the stablecoins are trading in Asia. So they're trading paired with the dollar, which is the neutral market. But over the past week, on January 25 and January 29, we saw a 4% premium in Asia, in Asian stablecoins. So what does that mean? Excessive retail buying pressure. Thank you, Daniel. So excluding the cases that we already mentioned, the taxes and FX restrictions are how much dollars you can buy, which is not the case for China. So this chart offers us a more reliable fear and grid metric because it's instant. It's not based on data from the past week. It's not based on tweets that happened two hours ago. It's instant. You can measure the demand for stablecoins in Asia at that exact moment. For instance, in January 11, the stablecoin indicator went to 97%, a 3% discount. What caused it that? A raid in South Korea's Bithumb exchange, so investors feared that the markets would crash. And also, Germany founders, the Wikilevus brothers, they accused Barry Siebert from DCG of fraud. So the investors panicked. They wanted to sell their stablecoins and have money in the bank accounts. So the stablecoin premium went to a 3% discount. So in essence, I recommend you guys to keep tracking the index. I personally use the OQX exchange, oqx.com slash markets slash data list, and you can get the stablecoin premium over there. So I think it's a far more precise indicator than the fear and grid index. That's good to know. I've never thought about looking at the sort of the spread of the stablecoins in such a way as, you know, comparing it to the fear and grid index. There you go. This is the kind of knowledge that you get on coin telegraph markets talks. We also make mistakes over here sometimes. For example, me today holding my hand up, I completely forgot the best part of the show. The meantime, gents, I'm so sorry to let you down like that. Could we roll the memes for this week right now? And then we'll do the crypto tip. Yeah, sweet. Okay, here come the memes. I think this was a little bit old, but yeah, the Department of Justice being killed by the feather of its Lato and, you know, everything else was killing the poor person sleeping. FTX, Celsius, Voyager, BlockFi. Can we add Nexo in there? Gemini, 3AC, Luno. It goes on. Not your keys, not your coins, guys. Larry Kramer. Yes, generational wealth. Can anyone do a good Larry Kramer accent? Like maybe Sam, you're good at impersonating him. It's been years since I've actually heard his voice because you know, why the hell would I listen to Jim Kramer? But I do like the memes though. I saw his voice a lot on the Netflix documentary about the Ponzi scheme, what's the name, Bernie Madoff, because, you know, he's a commentator from the 90s and the 90s, and he was still making bad stock calls back then. Yeah, I'm amazed this guy still has a job. SPF, please give us our money back. Best I can do is sorry. And it's true. All he does is apologize. Four signs, you're bad with money. You can't balance a budget. You have to take dollars from other people to pay your bills. You lend dollars before paying your own bills. Your debt is over 30 trillion dollars. Shots fired at the US government there. There is a lot of debt swimming around the government. There it is, memes from this week. So sorry we missed it and left it so late in the day. Feel free to, you know, troll me in the chat because of that. And in the meantime, I will get on with the next segment, which is all about a crypto tip courtesy of Cointelegraph and Markets Pro. So we're going to give you an insights and an inside scoop on the altcoins to watch this week, according to our flagship trading product, which is called Markets Pro. So Markets Pro is a data intelligence platform designed to enhance investors' decision making with industry-grade analytics. As part of this sort of suite of products that you can subscribe to with a promotional code down in the description box, there are things called newsquakes. Now these newsquakes are a tool that you can add to your trading arsenal. Because as I'm sure you know, news is what moves the crypto market. And the newsquake service by Cointelegraph Markets Pro helps traders to stay on top of the most important developments in the market. These newsquakes are automated alerts that instantly notify users like yourself when market moving events can happen. For example, this week, a newsquake went out for audio token on January 23rd when the asset was trading about 0.2 cents or 20 cents. Because it was being added to the Coinbase roadmap, this is the infamous Coinbase pump. This essentially means that a listing on Coinbase, one of the largest crypto exchanges, is imminent. As a result, traders who bought at this price could have seen a 62% increase when the price went up three days later to 0.34 cents. So if you long that, you get a 62% gain. $100 becomes $162. The Coinbase pump is not to be sniffed at. The second tool we're going to look at this week is the Vortex score. This week we're looking at the token, which is called IQ, which scored a very high Vortex score of 78, leading to a 60% gain. So this is an algorithmic metric, the Vortex score. And in essence, it compares the market conditions currently to the social conditions of those in the past. A high score means that judging from historical data, the asset's current outlook is bullish for the next 12 to 72 hours, a half a day to three day period. A Vortex score of 80 and above is bullish. Conversely, a low Vortex score, usually below 30 or a bit lower, would assume bearish conditions. So 18 above, good, time to take out the long, 13 below, short, because things are not looking great. And as you can see on the chat today, Everopedia's token IQ flagged a 78 score on the chart. And as a result, it spiked up 16%. So these are the kind of tools you can access if you subscribe to Market Pro. Of course, this is not financial advice. It's just trading tools that you can use and take advantage of. And yeah, if you drop a comment in the chat today, then you might be in chance of winning a one month subscription to Cointelegraph, Market Pro. Fantastic. Back to the end of the show. So gents, first, oh, the final week of January is over. How are you feeling about 2023? It feels like a good time to properly look at the year and think, okay, we've got through the worst or the nastiness of January. It's only up from here, right? Now, Marcel, you're smiling away. I don't know. I don't know, Joe. I think it's going to be a rough year. All these layoffs in tax company and the economies are not looking good. If you think it's true, if the economies don't grow, it doesn't matter if they stagnate, it doesn't matter if inflation is 10% or zero. If the economies don't grow, we have no job additions. If we have no job additions, people will likely have to sell their assets to cover expenses. So because of that, I think people are going to be forced to be setting assets, stocks and cryptos and whatever they have to pay for bills or maybe expenditures throughout the year. I don't think it's going to be a great year. I don't think we're going to see a bull run to $50,000 over the next four months. Okay, yeah. And that's a really important metric, but we shouldn't discuss that much this show. But yeah, like Google had massive layoffs, Microsoft had layoffs, and these are high-paying tech jobs. Some people, it's just trimming the fat, and this is always necessary, and this is just how an economy works. But there are real consequences and repercussions of this impact on the economy. So yeah, not 50K this year. How about yourself, Sam? How are you feeling about the rest of 2023? Well, I have no reason to doubt the four-year cycle, given the previous rounds that we saw. So I look at this as being generally a positive year for Bitcoin price, but relative to where we ended in 2022, which wasn't great. Like Marcel, I'm not anticipating a bull run. I mean, I'm not expecting things to go back to how they were during the euphoria phase. I think we're probably going to get some chops and volatility. We could still see some significant upside, but that doesn't mean that we're back into a bull market like we saw during 2021. So overall, everything is status quo for me as I head into the next halving, looking into that. But overall, I'm just in a wait-and-see mode, not getting terribly excited and deploying capital accordingly. Okay, fantastic. Yeah, good advice. And I think judging from the chat, I mean, last week, the chat was going off because the price seems to be pumping. This week, we've had a couple of days of like plateauing and the chat is still wonderful to see in you all and wonderful to talk with you all. But yeah, there's fewer participants, which is really interesting. Just one last thing to decide, and that's the poll results from the chat. Question was, will the price of Bitcoin go higher in February? Yes, one with 54% of the votes, no at 31%. And I just want to stay in the green was 13% of the votes. I guess we're going to have to review that in four weeks time to work out whether or not the hive mind that is the Cointelegraph Markets Pro YouTube comment section is full of wisdom or not. Okay, and we're going to carry on the giveaway until next week. I've just been informed. So thank you very much for watching at home, everyone. Stay humble, stack sats. We look forward to hanging out with you next Tuesday. And yeah, keep up the good vibes and keep bitcoining. I think I've got a matching mug somewhere. Look at that. They're over a mug or out. One mug here.