 The following is a presentation of TFNN The Tiger Technician Hour with your host Basil Chapman Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 Internationally at 727-445-1044 Now Basil Chapman Hi everyone, Basil Chapman, host of the Tiger Technician Hour 877-927-6648 and the author of the opening called Daily Newsletter. Hey, look at this. We're looking at the dollar down 0.36. In the Chapman Wave methodology, let me just show you this. This is for anyone new to my notations and make it as simple as possible. In the Chapman Wave, we're always looking for the lowest, most identifiable low bar and you want to count each successively higher peak and alphabetize them on the way up with an uppercase letter going from an A to a G, seven peaks. Within that context, it's the fourth highest peak, peak D. A is the first, B is the second, C is the third and D is the fourth where other things can happen. I'll show you in a moment exactly what I mean by other things can happen. You could pull back sharply, you could have just a moment to digest a phase or you could recycle within three bars to the upside, which portends the chance of having a brand new buy mode going four peaks higher. So it's really important. I only look at three patterns, straight down, straight up. That's one, arch formation or it could be an inverted V, but you're going from the left side low up, arching over, coming back and retesting that, you take it out. That's why it's red. It's pretty negative unless there are certain conditions that are meant to reverse to the upside immediately. On the green side, you've got the cup formation, number two, sorry, number three. And that green says if you take out the left side high in a certain manner, you can go quite a bit higher. So you've got straight line, arch or cup, one, two, three. Or you've got a combination. And that's called I call the dreaded H or an arch formation that fails the left side low, takes it out and keeps going down. On the other side, you've got a straight line and then it makes a cup formation, takes it out. The best one out of the Y formation is the inverted Y. Is when the price takes out the left side high in a peak, a leg C, B or C, which portends a chance to go even higher to straight up. I call it a Chapman wave cup and ladle because it looks like a leg just goes straight through. There's no handle. The handle is this ladle that keeps going higher until it makes at least a D, usually makes it an E. And then it pulls back in and retests the left side high. OK, that's about as simple as I can make it within that. We've got a plethora of other techniques that I use, but we'll deal with one thing at a time. We're looking at from the peak E at 98.68 on the first of August, the dollar comes back down to 97.03, Truff B, call them troughs on the downside with lower cases. And then it starts an A, B and then because it took out that previous high of 98.68. We're looking at 99.23 on the exhale. It has been stuck and when you think the crude oil has been at the lower end of its range and the XL just can't get out of its own way. I and that's another reason why I'm a little concerned about this market. They're not all the little ducks are sitting very nicely here. Look at this, the IYT, the I shares Dow Jones transportation average index fund trading way down to making this little double bottom type thing, trying to trying to rally. It's up $1.55 or 180.22 today. This is not a great sign. That 200 period exponential moving average in the weekend, 173.40. That to me looks very much like it wants to be in play, like it wants to come down and retest that, maybe even go down below it for a moment. I'm watching this very, very, very closely. All right, everything's back working. Good. Let's just keep going. So I'm going to just do a real quick review just because you saw the charts, but you didn't hear it. Let me just show you this again. Let me go back. Let me just see if I can get it in order right here. Yeah, so let me do this. I'm going to go from the SMHs. I'm just going to show you what I'm looking at that the Magdi is trying to turn up, but it hasn't crossed positive. The stochastic is only at 46% to 48%. And every time it's flattened out like this, that's when you've got that arch formation in the pullback. So I am considering that we're looking at for subscribers. And let me do this in Chapman Wave Notations so you can see it a little bit better. This is green. This is red. And this is called the Chapman Wave inside track repellent zone. So within the arch, the declining within the declining cone formation, lower highs and much lower lows, you've got a barrier right here. And it's been struggling to get above it. I'll be right back. Does if I'm the 71 Basel Chapman take a conditions hour, we'll be right back and I'll take your questions. I've got a couple of emails come in and I'll get to those. Since 1984, Basel Chapman has been using the Chapman Wave methodology to advise traders of his expert market opinion. Well, originally hand drawing charts from the late 1970s until the 1980s, Basel noticed that prices under most circumstances virtually always had a certain number of legs to the upside before declining sharply. Later, Basel found that computer software, which included the standard market technical indicators, enhanced the degree of accuracy and calling price turns as well as market trend calls. Thus was born the Chapman Wave sequence. Using the Chapman Wave methodology along with other indicators, Basel Chapman advises his subscribers of his expert market opinion each market day with his opening call newsletter. Right now, you can get a two week free trial to the opening call of Basel's daily trading newsletter by visiting the front page of TFNN.com. Cancel at any time during that trial and pay absolutely nothing. 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The Art of Timing the Trade Chart is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days, weeks, or even months searching to find. And right now, we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month. We are so confident that you're gonna love this new charting software that will even give you a 30 day unconditional money back guarantee. Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of The Art of Timing the Trade Charts today by visiting TFNN.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Hi, folks, we're back. So we have a little audio glitch. So let me just do a little recap. So I was showing when we came on air that I'd already got a PVD in the Chapman Wave two-minute chart. It made this little cup formation failure pattern. See the way the MACD deflected lowers. See the way you briefly went to 80% and then broke down. That's a negative. So you've gone from the high of 294, 8.25 to where we are at 10 points lower right now. And you've got a PVD and I see that the down arrow at this point is a cell signal, but we won't get a cell mode until we're down below the 2936 area, probably the 2935 area, because you have to wait for these moving averages to also cross negative. So these are really important. The fourth highest peak. Okay, that's number one. Number two is just on the recap, I was looking at the SMHs and I showed, I drew this in, it's called the Chapman Wave inside another technique that I've developed over the many years. I've been doing this inside track repellent zone. And once again, we've seen that the SMHs once, twice, three, four times have been repelled right on that line, going to the green line, which is the Chapman Wave falling axe formation. That's the other thing. The weekly chart, the technicals are kind of okay, they're not great and the price is good. But believe me, you don't want my Mundo Tuesday to see this down at the 117 area again. Because this time, I think if it starts to break below 117, it's going to go quite a bit deeper. Okay, so that's the SMHs. Then I want you to just quickly do the TLT, which I haven't done. This reverse is the H pattern that we were talking about, the pattern that I spoke about in the Chapman Wave methodology. This is another pattern that we just got to monitor closely because if bonds start to pull back at 141.84, they start to go to the 139.50 or lower area. You've got a good chance that you're making another arch formation with very poor technicals. The technicals aren't anywhere closest where they were right at the top when you went to 148.90 and the 28th of August. So let's just watch that. Okay, now the other thing is this, that if bonds are pulling back, what's gold doing? Well, gold, if yields are rallying at this particular point, gold is down 11.74, but stuck in the range. It isn't breaking down. So let's just go through the three things that I like to talk about. One is that the dollar represents the Harley-Davidson of the economy of the United States of America, not the Harley, the company, just the icon of Harley around the world, motorbikes, it's an American motorbike. Okay, so that's the dollar because it is still holding really well after being talked down, talked down, till it just ignores it and so far, it's held very nicely, number one. Number two is, within the context of yields, I was talking to someone who's probably one of the, one of the bond gurus, certainly the company that he's with, he's considered one of the great bond companies in the country. And we're just talking about this and saying, what can the Fed do? You know, the Fed, Fed's kind of stuck with the international aspect of lower rates and yet within the economy, there's some good things going on. And they kind of stuck. So rates can bounce a little bit here, but I think they're in a range and we discussed that. And yeah, they're pretty much in a range, they're gonna be bouncing around. I don't think they're gonna break to the lows of 14.29 anytime soon, but I'm not sure yet if they're gonna break above 19.03. That's a big range, but we stuck in that range for a little while longer. Okay, so I've got all that out the way. I discussed crude oil, better hold, the 40 or 49 area, otherwise it's in real trouble. Now this is the issue that I wanted to get to. So for subscribers last weekend, I showed them and I did a real detailed report on, this is what I show my subscribers every day. I hope I can find that chart. I'm sure I kept it here. It's this one right here with the arrows. Can I find the one with the arrows? Let's just see if it's this one, this one with that one. Okay, I'm getting it. Is that it? I'm gonna give this one a chance. No, let me give this one a chance. No, let me give this one a chance. Yes, no. Oh man, I think I must have just taken it off because, oh there it is. So last weekend for my Monday morning opening call for my subscribers, I send out Saturday, Sunday, I always send out charts over the weekend for Monday in preparation. People like to look and kind of the people who study Chapman Wave like to do this in great detail and other people that can just take the headline of my Traders Corner every morning and just read that opening paragraph. It sums things up as quickly as I can for people in a hurry. So I showed this arrow and I said, if the low of August the eighth, which had a big candle, it was a Meribose candle, and it's Meribose candle right here where it has no wick. I said it's Meribose-ish or type because it wasn't exactly, it did have a little bit of a wick, but it said it went up from the low that was made in August at 25,440, August the 7th, it runs up and goes to about 26,426, I think it was. And then it pulled back very sharply and then it had one little spike that went to a phenomenal new high. Maybe that's the one that went to 26,426. And then it plunged to a lower low. Look at exactly what's going on. I said, we've got the turnaround candle. This is the Chapman Way Roman candle. It's a green candle. It's a good candle. It says you can go up, but beware if you come back and test halfway into the wick at any point because you're going lower. That's exactly what happened here. And then what happened is we had this big green kind of Meribose candle of last Friday. I said there could be kind of a small candle and then a sharp drop. And then we're going to see if there's a rally towards the high and I'll be within five days within maybe in this case it'll be Friday or Monday. Are we going to have a sharp drop? So here we are. We've got the match from Thursday into Friday of last week. It matches that whole August 7th low and retracement with the failure pattern. Where are we today? So this is where we were on that candle. We went to the doji type candle with a nominal new high. We had the sharp pullback yesterday. We had an inside green candle. Now the time says whoops, this is the one where you should have been going to a new low. So now it says, wait a minute, we might be matching but we're actually holding a little better because look at this particular is alive. The MACD is flattening out. It's not great, but the histogram is improving a little bit. Stochastic says there's just no strength here whatsoever. Yes, it's at 40% and it's rallied since the low that was made under 20%. But this is pathetic. It should be even higher. It should be in leg B and moving higher. So I'm kind of worried about this and I'm thinking when we are talking about when we are looking at patterns that fail at moving averages of importance. For me, it's the 14 and nine period exponential moving average. If you fail there, that says that's tremendous resistance to break above. If at any point that downs trading at 26,000, man, let me just give it a little room. 26,720 is the number I've been talking about for a little while now. If it goes above that, I have to say, you know what? Maybe there is good news, enough good news to try to at least tackle, get close to the all-time high of 27,306, you barely, you could be there in an eye blink. So this is a very important moment. And I said, and I said, we're gonna be talking about this just in terms of patterns that have repeated and the other pattern has repeated up until now it changes dramatically. If there are maybe another two candles pushing sharply from where we are at 26,471, high to do is 26,314. We got 1,000 points to go before we go to the all-time high. I don't know if we're doing it in this phase. I don't think we are. I think we're gonna be doing retesting slightly lower lows and slightly lower highs as a theme. So that's what I wanted to do. Now, a couple of questions I've got. I want to get to them right away. Oh, we've got a break coming up. As we go to the break, let me see are there any questions, anybody called, but yeah, okay. So I want you to look at, I wrote it down, I wrote it down. NVTA for one of our folders. Yeah, it's just stuck. I'll be right back. We'll talk about it in a moment and we'll talk about twice. And another different topic. If you're in the CD market and looking for a secure investment, the Tiger First Mortgage Program may work for you. 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Go to tfnn.com and hit watch Tiger TV. That's tfnn.com. Then hit watch Tiger TV for the latest market information. How about we're back? So I needed to ask in the den. I just can't find right off. There was a question on a shipping stock. Somebody asked if you can do that. In fact, I was unfamiliar with that one. I don't know many of them but I didn't quite recognize that one. So let's do this. So NVTA, which is Nvidia Corporation, a diagnostic genetics. I really think that this is one of those where if you understand the business, diagnostic genetics, if you understand the business and you can get a feeling for the cycles, Jason, when you get those cycles right, you really, really do well. So I don't wanna really mess with you because I got a feeling this is one of those at the 18.67 level. I'd be nervous if it broke under 17.50. But if it kicks into gear at any point and it's up two points from here, I think that's going to be the start of another move to the upside. How you played on the short term, I just see nothing right here on the short term at the moment. I just don't see anything. I can't do that. So I'm just going to say for my purposes, I'm just going to say you know best how to play this because you usually get the bigger move. I see a bigger move to the 21s. The timing says to me, it's probably going to be a few weeks before it really picks up steam to get into and hold the 1950 to 20.20 area. So it's the downside I just want to protect and that's all I can say is that I'd be a little concerned if it took out 18, close under 18, I'd say, you know what, it's probably going to retest the lows, maybe even take out the low and then your face with the week is still being very negative. So that's an FSLY, which is Fastly. Is that right? Fastly. Fastly is trading lousy 24-70. I'm still going to say stay away from this but please remind me it's only in leg A, probably a peak A in the monthly chart. It's IPO. It's one I'd like to keep my eye on. Well, let's get to that a little later on. I even if we missed some of the move to the upside, I think being early here is hazardous to your health and wealth because if it takes out 21 support in the next week, it could restart the whole thing over again. I don't want that. So I'm just going to say, if it starts to rally, just give me a yell. Yeah, just give me a yell and we'll look at it again. Question I had was, was a star? Oh yeah, I'm a star. Okay, we've looked at star before. This in A, B, C, D. I believe it's a D in the weekly chart making a cup formation trading at 12.78. I'm just going to say that I like this. I like what it's doing. Time is a little bit like FSLY that we were looking at. Whoops, organic. We don't need that. So let me get out of that. Gee, you know, I don't usually get on my cell phone crank calls. So I don't know what organic is. Okay, so 12.78, 0.05. You know, here again, I don't want to see it take out the low even of just a few days ago of 12.65. I'm going to say, let's leave it for now. It may be today's Tuesday. Let's look at it again Monday or Tuesday. I don't mind if it rallies a little bit and you've missed something. Why? Because that weekly chart is still holding very well. But the MACD and Stochastic are weak. So the price is holding okay. I'm going to say, I'm going to give it a pass. Star is not in my stars right now. And DRISE, which is driveship, DRYS. You know, I don't know anything about this. Something happened. This is a stock was trading in the threes. Was it takeover talk or something like that? It's up at the 5.25. I have no idea. I could make it so that I can see the chart a little bit better. Yeah, something's going on. I think it was a take over, take under, take out, take in. I can't do anything with that. But what I do look at is DSX, which is Diane's shipping. Gosh, I used to have this no date. A, B, C, D. Bakes a P, D in the weekly chart. Digestive phase. Gosh, so many stocks have done this in the rectangle formation. It keeps bumping up against. So here's what I'm looking at. I'm going to draw this in so that you can look at a chart and it'll be very clear to you that there's a resistance level that the three point is trading DSX, trading at 349, down a penny. If you go to the high of the 31st of July at 3.53, if you go to the high of 3.352 on the 21st of August, and then the high of, was it also 5.2? Yeah, 5.2 on the 9th of September. And then you look at the last five days, it's determined to try to break into the, into the 3.57 area. How do you play this? And I do say played because I don't know how you could actually, it's in the shipping business. It's really tough for me at least to get figures that make sense. Dry bulk. I like the chart. I tell you what I'd like to do. If you're a longer term investor and you're like the shipping area, you could nibble here three, only nibble, it's a $3.40. Don't buy $100,000 worth of stock. Just buy a tiny little bit at 349. And the reason why is you want to treat it as a stock that refuses to break out. And every time it gets to the Chapman Wave, let me draw this in, the Chapman Wave inside track, repellent zone right there. It doesn't break out to the upside. It just gets repelled. That's why it's called the repellent zone. But wait a minute. When it comes back down, so right in here is the area that I'm really looking at. And that must be, that must be red. So there's your resistance and it couldn't take it out today. But I would say to you, if you want, you could nibble right here. But my thinking is I personally, I would say let's wait and let's see if we can come back to the lower band because every time it comes back to the $3.40 to $3.35 area, it's getting ready for another balance. And that's the way I would deal with it. A little bit here if you want, why? Because if it breaks out and DSX starts to trade at $3.57, that's another $0.08 higher or $0.678 higher. And it holds there. It's taking out that resistance. All of a sudden, this whole area of the $3.40 has become support. So it's a way to do it. My thinking here is that it still says, think about your entry point, a bigger entry point if it can get to the $3.41, $3.56 area. In fact, give me a yell and we'll look at it again. Did anybody ask me, nobody asked me about it. Nobody asked me about it, but I did it anyway because it's the one that gives me the best clues as to what's going on. All right, next question I had was, could I look at, oops, where'd it go, where'd it go, where'd it go? SBLK, SBLK is a star bulk carrier score. So now this is also a bulk, this is a much better chart. It's got the same problem with the resistance. Isn't that interesting? I wonder if they're related in any way. Could one be a holding company or the other? I don't know, but they do have very much the same pattern. All right, trading at $11.21, it has a more mature number. So this is one that institutions will probably be buying. They don't buy the five, but they do buy the $11. So this is making the cup formation since like a cup and handle, no cup and chaplain wave cup and ladle break up at a cup and handle. Look, there's your cup, there's your handle. If they close it just under it and then it pulls back, makes a handle, a deeper handle than I like. It says, even if it breaks out, it's probably gonna have to test that again. The weekly is an ABC, hasn't made a D yet. I like this, it's a lot better. This is the one that I feel more comfortable with at $11.21. Here I do the same thing, I'd nibble. I'd probably say if it gets to the 1060 to 1053 area, give me a Y, we'll look at it again to see if it's ready for a bigger move to the upside. Okay, we've got one segment to go. There's a chunk to do. I'll be right back, you and G will do it as I get back. You and G, that's the natural gas. I'll be right back. That's what champion does at 140. I'm certain you are or strive to be one of the best of the best at everything you do in life. It's the most common trait that we tigers and tigers share. If you're looking to become the best of the best when it comes to managing your money, let me teach you to do what most wealth managers tell you can't be done, which is how to time the markets. I'm Steve Rhodes, author of Mastery Probability and for the last 12 months, Timer Digest has been tracking my newsletter signals which have earned me the ranking as their number one market timer in the nation for the S&P 500 for the last 12, six and three months. Timer Digest also ranks me as the number one market timer for gold as well. 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They have been called miracle molecules because like sunlight, air and water, life cannot exist without them. That's right Paige, they ensure we receive all the nutrition we need to be healthy and thrive. We take it every morning. Primal edge, formulated and approved by Nico and Paige of living a primal lifestyle. Buy it today for just $89. Click on the Primal Edge banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Hi folks, this is Steve Rhodes. Stay tuned for another great hour of the Trader's Edge heard here at TFNN.com. I'm going through bad. So it was all about natural gas, natural gas trading right now. At 2.23, this age pattern says to me, just be a little careful. The technicals have gotten to the point where it could quite easily have another pop. It's vulnerable to upside surprises, but it's also vulnerable to having to come back to do a lot of testing of the 220 area. I think 220 is going to be key. At this particular point, I would just say, there's a good chance it's going to ready further if we can get to 2.32. I would say that particularly, you're giving up some, but I'd rather be buying a little bit of strength after this move, and then I'd buy it, but I'd have a really tight stop. And if it does that, it is really quickly to get over 2.34. So, okay, let's do this. I'm going to be doing my show tomorrow at eight o'clock in the morning, and it'll be repeated on Friday. It's really important right now for the pattern that we were looking at. Let me just go to this chart here, and then I'm going to go to the one that I show my subscribers every day. This is really important. I don't care what the news is, if there's a break into the 26,720s and it closes in, it's able to do that for two consecutive days, I just have to consider that MACD is going to start to cross positive. But if there's a failure pattern here and we give back a chunk of the gains, we're still holding pretty well at 130 up in the Dow, 17 points in there, it has to be even stronger. But if there is a failure pattern coming into the Friday's close, going into Sunday evening, Monday morning, I'm not sure that this time there's going to be a quick recovery You'll realize that last night to today was a 550, almost a 600 point move from one level to the other, from negative to the upside. And that's all we've been seeing. And then there's a break to the upside and then it comes back into the range. 26,226,000 is the range's key support level. It uses it as a springboard. If it closes under it one more time, that's just going to be a big negative. So keep that in, this is the way I'm looking at the market. In the meantime, we remain short from the 27, I think it was 181 level, the up 27,181 on the Dow, just off the all-time high, and we'll see if that's going to be able to work out. Newest-driven market, be careful, stay tuned, I believe Steve's here, maybe not, otherwise it'll be, you've got Dave White and then you've got Tom O'Rine today. Have a wonderful day, I'll see you tomorrow morning at eight in the morning and we'll be recorded for the show. Have a great day.