 The prime time games in week number three are bad We got a lot of dusty teams playing in island games And that's a downside for us as football fans because it means Thursday and Monday are gonna be not as fun But the benefit is Every fun team that exists on this planet is playing on Sunday pretty much on the main slate We're gonna break down what that means for us may roster construction perspective Which of those super fun teams of players are prioritizing get you set to hopefully win some money in week three over on Fanduil welcome on into the heat check fantasy podcast powered by Number fire that's right here on the Fanduil podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as always by Brandon Good new law. He is the senior managing editor of number fire calm Brandon week three cometh. How are you doing today? I'm doing great. Like you said, we got a lot of great teams on the slate For this week. We got the Patriots. We got the Panthers. We got the Bears Let's let's not let's not just yet here, buddy. Come on Yeah, we got the well the jets are kind of fun. Actually a few teams I was gonna name were actually a little bit fun So I've had kind of had to change the bit on the fly. We got the here's one that fits the bit the buck in ears I was like weirded out because I asked you how you're doing you say great not sarcastically Then I slowly realized it was so I was like throwing off for a second But then the real Brandon could do the real dong doula came out So, you know, we got it eventually just had to to crawl out of the cave. Yeah, just had to wait, you know 30 seconds. Yeah, bring down the vibe. Exactly. That's what we do. That's what I do Got away, but it was there. But like you said, you know, like Honestly, even some of those teams are fun I think that's a fun thing about this week is the teams you were gonna list like they've got some got like I like David Montgomery, maybe stupidly, but like we're gonna talk about that like it's actually a really good slate And it's almost too good not to complain about a really good thing But we got to kind of whittle the list down, which is not easy So we're gonna do that for today break down game stacks our favorite plays each position and some strategy discussion too to get You said for week number three before that though a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the number fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast because it's not just our twice weekly NFL podcast the preview Thursday the recap on Monday, but also PGA in the swing season as well with Brandon I've got NASCAR for Texas coming out tomorrow UFC and they'll be still going every week day All of that right here in the exact same feed So search for the number fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast and while you're there If you like what you hear leave us a rate rating and review as well Hey college football fans the 2022 season is underway and Fandal and Xfinity have teamed up to give you a chance to put your college football knowledge to the test Introducing Xfinity unbeatable picks a free-to-play contest centered around college football's biggest games Here's how it works You'll be given a list of 10 game props to answer for college football's biggest matchups for week 4 Simply head to fan dual comm slash free slash hub and look for the Xfinity unbeatable picks game To enter and submit your answers for each of the 10 questions if your picks proved to be unbeatable You'll win a share of $20,000 in cash prizes courtesy of Xfinity Xfinity unbeatable picks is set to begin on Saturday at noon Eastern So make sure head to fan dual comm slash free slash hub and look for the Xfinity unbeatable picks to Make your picks today. No purchase Necessary the best three words in all of ad reads. Let's dig into these week three main slate and talk about the slate overview for this week And Brandon there are a couple different ways to go with this in terms of your view of the slate from a top-down perspective But what do you is the biggest thing for week three? Figuring out how to narrow down the player pool. Yep. Good problem to have but it's a tough one It is and you know, I'm sure You know, we talk a lot about having a narrow player pool So it's especially for us. It's something we need to figure out But even if you like to play a lot of guys, you you really could run the risk of playing like everybody you know, not literally everybody but tons of games tons of quarterbacks with upside but also Some quarterbacks in games that are appealing who we you and I wouldn't necessarily tag is like super high upside guys like if you like You know the Rams and Cardinals game a lot Matthew Stafford if you like the Lions and Vikings game, you know, Jared Goff cousins. No Derek off. Yeah Joe burrow I think like there's a lot of reason to think that Joe burrow can't get much worse and has to bounce back a spot against the Jets You know that but we're looking at like 10 plus quarterbacks and if you have 10 plus quarterbacks Jim as I says every week If you have 10 plus quarterbacks and DFS, you don't have like two or three to build around I was gonna say if you say you have none You're like the classic like color commentator on like Monday night football. You got two quarterbacks. You got none, Joe Yeah, I was set setting it up and subverting it. Yeah, like I did at the top of the show. Yeah, you'll learn It's it's like you're seven. You'll learn what I yeah eventually actually it's almost our seven-year anniversary I got a week until that there we go They have not gotten rid of us yet. Somehow we're sliding beneath the Crocs Don't let them know that we're still here. Josh Allen Patrick Mahomes a Marjax and Justin Herbert Jalen Hurts Kyler Murray. I Love all those guys and that's the problem like you said whittling down the player list is a tough thing to this week So that's number one for me. The second one is Not a lot of value. I like this week So I think I want to use the massive volume of good games in order to have a balanced lineup I think I want to go that route for this week and avoid the true value plays because when you have a lot of Really good options in the slate is tougher to take a zero tougher to take a really low score and hang so to me I want to Kind of see where the breaking point is See how low I can go while still using players who have legit juice and legit upside and Build around those guys. So running back. That's like the seven thousand range the low seven thousand range a wide receiver It's the low six thousand range is pretty good. The five thousand range drops off quite a bit I think at tight end. I think there's more flexibility in the low range like guys like Zach Hurts Tyler Higby But you know, there's that and a quarterback to Maybe have to lower Josh Allen because the salary is high. I don't want to but that might have to so I think for me It lends itself well towards a balanced approach You know making sure I have upside at every spot in my lineup and I'm not Taking risks on value guys on the slate where I need a lot of points to hang I'm not sure if that's the right read on it where value or where where balance is the right way to go But I think that's where I'm settling in right now is I think I want to have a pretty balanced roster this week well, there's a difference between like true balance and playing everyone between let's say like 6000 and 75 I might do that but but like true balance as in Let me let me see here. I don't have I'm gonna build a lineup between six thousand seventy five I'm gonna take those exact parameters. No no modifications. You keep talking. I'm gonna build so like instead of Joe Burrow you play Like Ryan Tannehill it's a bad example of quarterback. I'm not gonna use it a quarterback. We'll encounter a quarterback. I'll do that Yeah, and every line of green. He's he's coming right like the difference of like Aaron Jones in a tough spot at seven thousand versus Antonio Gibson or Josh Jacobs like these guys whose roles are questionable at best like that's a difference to me like Aaron Jones Still has upside even though the matchup itself seems tough That's not just taking like a salary reduction for the sake of it Maybe I could have said Alvin Camara at the same salary just because his role is not particularly good, but you know, there's a difference between Still finding guys in that salary range who have the ability to alter a slate or you know make up for a mistake in your lineup and then there's guys to Can get you like 12 13 14 and there's really not a whole lot more from there Okay, so we did it Built the lineup only guy above Seven or there are no guys above 78 no guys below 61. I might use it It's not the most like stacky. So it's not the best like roster construction necessarily, but I get Kelsey a tight end I don't have any running backs below 7000 no receivers below 61. I think it's gonna be for balance. I think that's where I'm gonna wind up settling in for this week is kind of going that way and building my rosters as balanced not as balanced can be but just avoiding Guys without good ceilings at value play. I think that's kind of the key well the key way. I want to phrase it That's always a given for us. I think Eric should be and if we're bigger emphasis this week though bigger Yeah, I mean like just this like it's easiest to like illustrate this at quarterback this week, but you ratted off what six guys seven guys who like could put up the Lamar game from last week or Yeah, I mean that was silly and yes like to a you know matched him, but it took Historic passing game to do it. Yeah, so you're banking you're betting against last week. It was just two and a half Yeah, basically two guys once Traylan's right got hurt, but this week you're betting against a lot of huge upside and and yes and You know you can make this case at every position and say well Then I can't play Cooper cup and he has a big ceiling, but I'm specific at quarterback. It's very predictable. Yep Yeah, I think that that's where I'm at for this week. Okay, let's dive into some injuries heading into week number three Starting over the Buccaneers They will be without Mike Evans on Sunday due to a suspension from his fight with Marshawn Lattimore Julio Jones Chris Godwin left tackle Donovan Smith missed practice on Wednesday Russell Gage for shot paraman Scotty Miller all limited in practice Cole Beasley signed to the practice squads. They're facing Green Bay here. There's a lot of volume to be had but Brandon Are they too banged up to trust? Does this hurt your outlook for Leonard Fournette's? What are you on? What's your view on the Bucs right here? It doesn't help with four net because you want trips to the Red Zone correct and I mean Tom Brady hasn't been completely flawless by any means with with his receiver situation being what it is So that's a that's a big issue. They're implied team total just 21 and a half, which is not much at all for a slate like this It is a you know close underdog game So like it should stay close. They sort of neutral, but I Really don't know if any of these receivers unless we get like a full go Scotty Miller Right has Tangible predictable upside and even then the predictable part for Miller isn't quite there so it's really just a matter of how much it affects me for four net and I think we can care a little bit less about overall scoring environment for for running backs, but it's definitely not something that you want to Write off completely. So I agree that you're across the board every single point you made It does downgrade for another bit because it just it hurts there Projected offensive efficiency and I care about that at every position because I want points So it hurts for net there as far as the value guys at receiver like yeah I was talking about before about like, you know, there's not a lot of value receiver Does pertain to the bucks too because you mentioned Scotty Miller He'd be my favorite guy here in a vacuum but Ran I think 19 routes last week and I'm curious was that because He's behind both Param and engage it kind of seems like he was and Will that transit to this week? Will Cole Beasley? Probably being active Sunday will know Saturday because he had to be promoted from the practice squad by Saturday But he's probably gonna be active. Will he impact that? So Like I think I'd like Scotty Miller most and followed by Bershaw Param and both those guys have paths to 15 points Do they have paths to 20? I don't know and that's that's tough Like Scotty Miller is a downfield threat and he got some deep work on Sunday against the Saints But I just don't know what the route rate will look like and that concerns me. So First half first half snap rates last week for those guys Param and Param and engage both two-thirds Scotty Miller 25% in the first half. Yeah Like it's it's tough. Um, so will I use? Those guys will I use? limited Scotty Miller limited Limited Bershaw Param and probably Yes, but I wanted to be a very very low exposure number because I want to focus on guys Who I think have better upside here slight indifference it does hurt him a bit in my mind But still will likely be there quite a bit Gabriel Davis So I gave gave the babe gave Davis able to get an unlimited practice on Wednesday He missed Monday with an ankle injury Dawson knocks those out of the foot injury The bills have a bunch of injuries in their secondary right now The dolphins have their own issues to Xavier and Howard miss practice on Wednesday the groin issue Obviously not ideal timing with the bills being next in the dock We'll talk about this game in the bookmakers section both Kenan Allen and Justin Herbert were able to practice and a limited fashion on Wednesday Kenan hamstring issue Herbert his rib cartilage is jacked up. They're facing the Jags this week If there's no Kenan, we obviously load up a Mike Williams. We know that but assuming Kenan plays How are you viewing Herbert and this Chargers offense on Sunday? I think Herbert's in the mix for Being a staple at quarterback this week. I got like the mini by baked in Because they played Thursday night We know where the ball is going with him. So he's easy to stack The thing you would knock him for is probably not going to run as much and he does have a little bit of rushing upside usually not necessarily In the same tier as the the true dual threat guys we think of but I do I do think that this is a pretty fun game I think that that Herbert's in that conversation is like a An alternative route to go at quarterback. I think the the easiest play to justify is Jalen Hurts this week, but Herbert Coming off of a mini by so he's kind of out of sight out of mind for a little bit extra He's not a hundred percent. I think that he's someone who could just go more or less overlooked for how good he can be So I like Herbert If Keenan plays love his workload if he doesn't obviously Mike Williams and Mike Williams is still in play if Keenan goes But you know, I think arrows up on Herbert. I just will still not be getting tossed in that clear Yeah, I won't either too too high side for me Keenan now in seventy five hundred dollars before getting hurt in week one Four total targets two of those were deep He actually had a very good role before that injury which is not a surprise based on his history But I think it's worth noting that he had a good role in that game before getting hurt so if we get a full practice from Keenan by Friday like Or if we get like even if we get like a shifty bomb Saturday night same it'll play Kind of like confirmation beforehand that means I feel pretty good about it I'd feel pretty good about him too and I do think that Herbert is in play for stacking and the good thing is You know how to stack this game you go Herbert you go Keenan or Mike will maybe I don't I don't like Everett as much as most people do I don't think I think I'm lower on him the most are Sorry, why did you make that face? I just was surprised to hear you today I think he stinks and I think that there's a chance that once Donald Parham is back He gets benched because he's not very good at football, but um, that's like the harebrained thing. Anyway, sorry What you've got the 54 and 71 yards in his two games and not a whole lot of tight ends have a Pulse in the yardage column. I thought you I thought you'd love that Do you want to ever versus Higby bet? No, I'm not saying I like I love him to that degree I just if you're if you like this offense in this game, I figured you'd be higher on it. I don't like him There have been multiple you love Tyler Higby as a talent. So this is so this is like Fair um This is not something that's like legitimate This is just like but like the thought cross the thought has crossed my mind twice within the past year is Gerald Everett point shaving I know he's not he's not he's not I want to make that very clear it would never accuse him of that but like he plays poorly enough for a like I'm like I know he's not, you know, I know he's not making that very clear But you ask the question to yourself like that's he's not very good. So I worry about that this is what you talk about like Watching the film can sometimes be a detriment watching Gerald Everett play it makes me hate Charles Everett. So That's where I wind up there. That's my issue with that one Anyway, oh, sorry, you know how to stack this game, you know, Herbert with Mike Will or Kenan Maybe Everett and then you run it back with Christian Kirk. So if I know where to stack it makes it easier makes it, you know Predictable, I'll take that for sure Alvin Camero able to practice Wednesday with his rib issue Seems to set up a return for week three Backfields pretty spread out without Camero. What's your view of this backfield with Camero does return So we didn't love the role for him in week one when we went over it played 63% of the snaps 40% Route rate did have a 71% first half snap rate. So it's a bit better there before the rib issue probably So, I mean, there's that The like I'm a I would be lying out right if I said I wasn't a little bit tempted it Camero at 7,000 Yeah for what he can do But it's it's more a matter of usage and you're banking on like elite efficiency on a per-touch basis, which obviously he has But I don't know they kind of have more weapons than they used to as well. Yeah one more game Carolina's defense is not the worst. Yeah Like I think the idea of pivoting to him when there are a lot of running backs We like in that range is interesting, but it also means that none of those guys will be prohibitively popular One of them who we like more may slip through the cracks So I think I'd rather pivot elsewhere in that range James Conner didn't practice Wednesday But it's listed as day-to-day and did get some working on Wednesday despite the official low practice After Conner left, you know, Benjamin and Darryl Williams split work So if Conner sits any interest in either of those guys for you Prior to the situation where they split work We want to we want to prioritize Benjamin because of the receiving role But the reason that we like James Conner is that he gets a lot of like goal line touches and those are going to go To Williams. So I feel like it's very easy to guess wrong here I don't know if the upside is worth it even even saving salary So I'm probably out on both unless I'm really really stacking this game up in like a creative way But that's about it. Yeah, I think that Like you said there is a low floor because you could guess wrong and not the best ceiling So I agree with you there. Well, even if you don't guess wrong, it could be a split and then correct Yeah, low floor low ceiling. I don't want that both Alec Pierce and Michael Pittman were able to return to practice Wednesday after missing week To Pierce was a full which means he probably should clear a concussion protocol this week. Pittman was limited What's your view of Pittman something he plays? This week if he's back against the cheese So spoiler alert, I don't really have a top like number one receiver love yet just because it's so wide open And realistically I you know, I love Justin Jefferson a ton But I don't know if I'm gonna be able to get their salary wise for like primary lineups Pittman's in that conversation. His role was really really good in week one 27% target share 35% a yard share in the opener. We saw them not play very well last week You would think that if he's out there, they're gonna get him the ball So I'm you know, he's in that conversation Maybe is like a guy at a reasonable salary who can outperform that but obviously still limited So I have to wait and see I'm interested to hear your thoughts in Pittman, but then also Jonathan Taylor Yeah, so I like this game and I like most of the chief side of it But like, you know, I think that I think this game is pretty fun Pittman if if he gets taken off the injury report or is a full practice Friday I'll be very high on him for this week at $7,400 because it's a good game. It's indoors There are a lot of receivers in that range who should attract attention People might be wary coming off the injury stuff like that So I do like him a lot and would like to be there. I probably prefer Taylor Well, I don't know because he's $9,400 and we're just talking about balance. So I I think I guess I'd probably prefer Pittman then just due to salary, right? I think I have to it's really difficult to play Jonathan Taylor and you know, you can say well, I'm gonna get sprinkles in then you're building like lineups that completely They're completely fundamentally different. Yeah, if you're trying to force in Jonathan Taylor into some lineups. So I mean, it's I'm not saying that's the wrong call That's just not how I tend to do things. I try to be a little bit more You know narrow. Yeah, and it's scary to be low on Jonathan Taylor especially coming off of a down game But it's also scary not to be on Cooper Cup and Justin Jefferson too. So well, I think one way to look at it though is You can use Jonathan Taylor and Tyler Higbee or you can use like Aaron Jones and Travis Kelsey. Love me a 2v2. Yeah, I think that that's kind of the way to view it I think it's more so about tight end for me than receiver Because I don't know if I will have any value receivers I can use and I there are value tight ends I can use so I Think it's probably Pittman over Taylor, but I do want to get to both. It's just it'll be tough Taylor with Kelsey will be a difficult build. I know that for sure Deandre Swift set out practice Wednesday, but he is apparently feeling much better this week So he should be good to go and like they have a bigger role than he had in week two We'll talk about that game in the bookmakers section Hunter Renfrow is in concussion protocol after that big hit Sunday Didn't practice Wednesday Brandon Bolden was limited if he plays it could hurt Josh Jacobs role Don't really have a lot of interest there regardless personally, but did want to note that as her Renfrow He could still get cleared by Sunday, but if Renfrow does miss how does impact your view of this Raiders passing offense? You mean Renfrow has been involved. Yeah, he's got a 22 percent target share a dot of 3.4 yards, which you just love to see Something that we'll talk about one of my one of my trends is focused on target depth and air yards, but Jim I was I was being sarcastic with the fact that you'd love to see a 3.4 at a dot Sorry, sorry, I wanted to make that clear, but I knew you I guess I didn't pick up on the fact other people might not but yeah Well, there's a callback to the fact that you that I I was on Debo Samuel who on a breaking leagues Yes, agreed. Yeah, that's where your mind might not like earlier in this show whenever I was being sarcastic and you got sure I think that it if we get This might be like a strange take, but if we get Bolden back like I think that And there's no Renfrow we could see Josh Jacobs hurt more because they might have Bolden on the field more Yeah, I don't think I want Jacobs even if even if Bolden sits I think we're both on that same page with Josh Jacobs, but I do not think that we are Indicative of most people stop process on Josh Jacobs. Sure. I agree. I think that it would actually help Darren Waller a lot his a dots way better than Renfrow, but I'm gonna be hiring Waller this week again than you So my issue with Waller is that he actually did lose some routes to Foster Moreau last week Across two games Waller has run around. I'm 70% of all drop backs. Moreau is at 28% But we look at just week two Specifically, I haven't loaded this yet. So stalling in week two specifically Waller's route rate was 60% so it's declining a bit and I think that if you had shown me Darren Waller's target shares from last week Target shares in week one and said do you want him at 64? I probably said yes I'm a little bit worried about Moreau taking some snaps. I think that the Renfrow injury does help him so 64 is a very fair salary and one Where I'm still like I've got interest and probably will use him It just lowers my enthusiasm when I have guys below him who I think have pretty good volume, too I think it's a reasonable salary for a you know environment that I that I like so Yeah, I guess the the final thing here is reasonable is correct. That you that's the right way to agree. I agree that The the one name we might not talk much about this week is is Devonte Adams. I Think he deserves at least our thoughts here Coming off of a game where he felt coming off of a game in week one Where he felt unfaithful and that kind of reflected in like the Sunday million. Yeah draft percentages And then went two for seven did bail himself out with a touchdown, but thoughts on Devonte I bet the under on that game. So I don't like the game environment that much I could just go down to Terry Kale, Stefan Diggs, AJ Brown Like I I I'm kind of okay missing out if he torches me I know it's like a good buy low spot But like like it's kind of similar to the discussion with Camaro where I'm probably gonna be able to use someone I like more who is also in like a pivot roster rate range So I think I'd rather go with one of those guys than with Devonte personally Yeah, I'm probably not gonna get the Devonte Yeah, I agree Lamar Jackson limited in practice Wednesday with a forearm issue sounds like he'll be good to go though JK Dobbins got another full practice Wednesday John Harbaugh called him week to week earlier this week So we know to avoid this backfield if if Dobbins sits, but if he plays Still no interest or where yet Look if JK Dobbins comes back for the first time since 2020 and like burns me in an offense that doesn't throw the ball to their backfield I'll fill it with it Fair enough Jacoby Myers missed practice Wednesday with a knee injury. He underwent testing which is typically not what you want New England Almost always a cross-off, but Brandon Would you consider someone like Nelson Moss Aguilore against a beat-up secondary if Myers were to sit? No Even with no jacoby Myers you would not go you would not consider Nelson Aguilore He overperformed a ton last week But jacoby Myers played that game and he wouldn't be playing this one Oh, is that how it works if someone's out? Yeah but He overperformed because he must a guy Sure. Did you see it? Yeah. Yeah, it was awesome. Okay. So like let's talk about watching the film. He does that We think that he's like Going to be a safe play in an offense that we despise. I didn't say safe I said he might have upside now, which he didn't have previously because there are vacated targets My numbers like the over in that game. I'm not doing it, but my numbers do like the over I'll put it up that out there as well well How much do you believe in jacoby Myers making it making a difference? I don't that's why I don't want to use him. No Their offense already stinks. Can we get worse? Jim, I don't know who you are targeting a Patriots receiver. No hypothetically saying he's in play A guy who gets some downfield work who just lost a guy Um is $5,900 in a game where my number is like the over, you know, I can I can consider that Okay, well his nickname is swagalore, you know Lots of great things in his favor The list is endless I mean, I know we need I know we need buyer receiver, but I I'm not gonna get there Give me chrysalovay instead Yeah, it's fair. Um, I'm not super high on shark probably instead Don't talk don't say that name and a better game dead to me after last week dead to me I had like a lot still was a good week, but could have been better not for old dj shark I think aglor is an option That's as far as I'll go Traylon berks or aglor aglor Finding an extra hundred to get to alan robinson or aglor 100 for johan dotson Or felon or davante smith The lens I think he's pretty dusty at this point. I used him on the monday slate and regretted it. So Therefore he's crossed off forever. That's the rule. Yeah, his red's not great, but that's Okay What? I just I was gonna say like I think We got to figure out what's what exactly is uh descriptive and predictive here and Mossing someone is predictive. Not great, but no mossing someone is predictive Just okay Someone doesn't know ball. What about your boy? Jarvis land tree. He's also dead to me. He's also dead to me. Yeah Swagger gym now a fan of the one week sample Mm-hmm. Correct. You're right Don't walk it back. It's right. Uh, cj uzama got in it Just move on Yeah, but you're talking about touchdowns. You're not talking about mossing guys. Come on CJ uzama got in a limited practice on wednesday revenge game this week, by the way He missed week two with a hamstring injury I would guess that tyler conclin gets downgraded here if uzama does play just keep that in mind with them Also a minor one at tight end price and hopkins got suspended three games for violating the league's substance abuse policy That should be a slight bump for tyler higby who may play every snap against the cardinals So keep that one in mind as well. Let's dive in here to the bookmaker section for week number three His total on the board is in minnesota for the vikings and the lions 53 and a half point total vikings favorite here by five and a half and it's easy to see why The lions have been involved in two shootouts of so far Their defense sucks their offense is led by the best quarterback in football either him or marcus mariota You choose we got big names in this one. Um, I'm assuming it's a zero quarterback game Maybe you disagree based on what you were saying earlier. Where does this one rank for you in terms of mini stacks? Probably number if it's just specifically mini stacks number one. Yes cat. I agree Um, I think jim alluded to is that the simulation model that I run likes kurt cousins at salary a good bit, which makes sense I'm not going to get there myself I don't think probably not Just let me get back up to kyler instead But we have dalvin cook who I like a lot this week Hasn't really been on the forefront of anyone's minds based on what he's done. Justin jefferson. I think I probably have to learn my lesson eventually not to Prefer anyone to cooper coppin or given week, but I think jefferson is the one I prefer This week. I've come around a little bit on earth smith. Although he did drop what could have been a long touchdown last week So again, let's stop. I don't know if he's dead. I don't know if he's dead to jim now No, he's very alive to me. He's very alive. What's a river most alive? Is Is he wearing 84? I can't remember earth smith earth smith Uh, maybe but it is 84. Wow Why didn't they retire that They should retire that. Yeah, probably why is the 81 not retired for the vikings? What is going on here? I'm offended by this now I feel like I had to cross off earth for wearing 84 Yeah What is the center actually Herb is 5000. I prefer higby prefer earths and that salary range But like herb is not the worst play if I'm stacking mini stacking this game Yeah, he's just he's like a stack only. Um Do you under swift? I'm gonna love a lot Uh, like hawkinson I think the biggest question because it's probably easy to make the case for dalvin and swift at running back jefferson Um Both tight ends if you understand like the expectations Yeah, the big outlier is amon ross st. Brown who had an incredible game last week got a salary bumped the whole way up to 7800 um Based on the role probably supportable, but also Multi-touchdown game Last week hard to meet those expectations. So what are your thoughts on uh st. Brown? So I think that like the question is like, how do you view them relative to other guys in that range? Because he's right by aj brown. I would go brown over amon ross st. Brown, but like amon ross is jail and waddle Kind of might go amon ross there, right? Is that stupid amon ross keenan allen michael pitman all these guys in this range? Like I think it's a very fair salary and probably where it should be potentially even still too low still Yeah, my model this week like a sort of very back Yeah, it's it's been stormy here. Um, same here. Yeah that hit us Go ahead continue, but uh um My model loves st. Brown for this week With he's actually between cup and jefferson in terms of like floor to ceiling ratio. So And that counts for salary. So yeah, that's awesome. Good for him Like I don't I can't push back on that like that's that's sick He deserves to be there too given the game given the role everything like that um I think for me like I think dalvin might be like one of my top running back plays of the week 8300 dollars I want to get a read on roster ray projections between him and mixon because both those guys have Very good roles, but I've not blown up yet But have the potential to blow up based on both their role and the game environment which they're playing for this week so I like dalva lot. I prefer him over de andre switch at $8,000. What do you read on the running back to this game? Love both um dalvin's one of my player picks for this week I think the salary is is low enough where he can Overperform that pretty substantially. So it makes me a little bit less concerned about someone like jonathan taylor I love you andre swift, especially with the role increase the one thing that kind of jumps out to me um For st. Brown is that maybe with swift more involved st. Brown's workload skills back uh, also with with that kind of game that he had last week probably a situation where He just can't replicate that success. So a little bit lower on st. Brown than you don't need 40 points out of him like right We don't need to replicate but 78 we just like like if you just look at his role his role through two games. Let me pull it up his role Through two games ignore what happened last week like ignore the production and just look at him as a wide receiver who has a 34 target share in an offense that we think is pretty good and who has 33 percent of the red zone work in a game we like playing indoors against a not only defense Like I don't care what you did last week. That's a good role and worthy of $7,800 Yeah, I have him sixth in expected fandal points based on usage among all receivers behind just cup tyreek pitman digs waddle That's it so So I think that the could the could be a situation where you get the read like what will his roster AP compared to pitman Compared to waddle compared to tyreek and if the if it's if it's higher than all of them pivot there I think that might play this. Yeah Anything else in this game? No, I think it's it's like a narrow even though we spent a long time on it. I think it's a narrow one Yeah, I agree. Okay. One game that does have a quarterback in it Obviously tua is the bills at the dolphins. Uh, total there is 52 and a half spread is five Six and a half in favor of buffalo It was six tuesday morning then got that down to five and a half and has since been bet back to six and a half Both these teams are super pass heavy. We love that a lot of plays in this game Concentrated volume for the most part. How are you stacking this game up? This one I find tougher than the game we just talked about because the salaries are high There's not a lot of value to to sort of build in like at least with the tight ends in the other game We have right here. It's not so much Obviously Love josh alan staphon digs, but they're playing on a short week After a fantastic game for both of them. I think that's gonna You know downgrade their expected production a little bit just because it's a short week But also inflate what their You know popularity is and it's deserved for these guys. They're that good, but yeah, which is not That's something you got a factor in also Not the like kind of analysis that we do here, but Miami might be like a little low on energy after that You come from behind shootout game I'm sure they'll you know Get energized for a max up against the bills, but like I think it's fair to wonder what you know That kind of does to a team. It is tough It drains a lot of energy to do the sam casale dance for like a full week Like down the halls of the facility like that's that could drain energy for sure Yeah, it would have to um, but yeah, I mean other like realistically alan digs gave davis assuming health tyrantian waddle the The way I might have to go is alan davis and waddle though just due to salaries But that's going to be very That that combo itself might be pretty popular I don't think davis will catch popularity just based on coming off an injury based on Having other guys in that range were pretty attractive and people tend to like a lot So I think davis actually will probably be safe Um waddle will be popular like that. I can almost guarantee you but like, you know To stack the game you kind of got to go there and I think that The one concern that I have is weather wind speeds currently 12 miles per hour And if I talk about wind on twitter, there will be a reply someone saying oh people care too much about wind Lower rostrates for me hardy horror. If you look at what the public actually does they don't react to wind enough based on Players who are popular in daily fantasy versus players who succeed in perfect lineups The public doesn't react enough to wind. So if the wind stays high I might wind up having to like in a single entry lineup just fade this game outright for multi entry I would still be here. Um, but lower than what I would be otherwise for like one single entry lineup I'd probably pivot elsewhere if the wind stays where it is given popularity of this game given Alternatives I actually have alternatives elsewhere. I think that that's the way I'd have to play it there Uh, luckily no running backs to consider here. Um We know that alan has the upside the juice the we know where the ball is going at wide receiver Does lead to inflated salaries, but in a vacuum. It's a very good game, but There is a path to disappointment via that wind If it stays where it is and if it's going to be popular to you, that's a negative for sure Let's talk here about the rams at the cardinals total is 48 and a half the rams Three and a half point favorites spread here is actually tightening that number has come down As the week has gone along we've seen the cardinals get off to super slow starts each of the first two games How much does that concern you in a game that should be pretty attractive for stacking? Yeah, I mean it's either got a change Or it's going to be more the same where we're talking ourselves into the cardinals and then it's just a slow start or You know just a disappointment. Um, and then you're waiting for chile Murray to make something happen I will say in this case Pretty narrow game stack if you're going to go there. Um, I think I think both quarterbacks realistically are in play But obviously prefer chile Murray Um outside of that don't love the running backs on either side Just too much of a committee for me. Agreed. Um, our keys brown zackerts For the cardinals if you're going to stack with Murray and then cooper cup, obviously But tither higby, I guess I guess maybe I'm overlooking alan robinson but He kind of got some targets early and then didn't really have a ton after that in a week too, so um If I'm going to stack it it's going to be narrow I don't know if this is going to be the the stack that I built around for On my main lineup though, it might be for mine Um, that's because you like color more than I do probably. Yeah Should I know but I do, um I don't dislike them. I just I don't know how you don't play. I totally understand. I totally understand where you're coming from I think it makes a lot of sense. Um, I'm just looking at some projected roster rates and adam feelings at the top That can't be right. Okay. I'm going to disregard these so That's not right. I'm going to give it to that tab anyway, um I think that given what my research has shown on how hesitant the public is to roster underdog quarterbacks given The upside that they have given the upside kyler specifically has um They're getting healthier as zekker it's now weak healthier as well ronda is probably not going to play again so he's probably out but Continuing to get more acclimated with a a hollywood brown centric offense. He looks pretty good last week. So I think that like a kyler hollywood earth stack is Really funks it fits my approach of being balanced, but also does get me upside at all three spots and I kind of like that. So I think that like if I have one single entry lineup This might be the game I start with first and then get many stacks of She's cool. It's the many stacks of eagles commanders many stacks of vikings lines Obviously not all at once, but like kind of get the mini stacks from there I might have my quarterback aka kyler b in this game. Yeah Building trying to build a lineup here. Um Makes this game more appealing. Yeah from that from that aspect, but I still I'm gonna have a hard time going away from um jalen hurts and I know Be popular, which I'm doing an air quotes for anyone who's not watching which I'm assuming is probably the majority but um Quarterbacks don't really get prohibitively popular. I've done research on it. Um for me. It's more so like Not that I'm avoiding someone who's popular more so that I'm seeking out someone who is under rostered on very few Yeah, yeah, but I'm not I'm not gonna be worried about jalen hurts. Correct. I'm not either from a roster perspective I'm more seeking out someone who is going to be on 5% of rosters probably in kyler Somewhere around there You might have frozen I can't tell if you're just like annoyed that I brought up kyler again if you're frozen But you look like you're back now. No, I froze it's it's real windy here So for me, it's more it's less about avoiding pop or avoiding pop Avoiding chalk and investing in a spot where the public under invests. That's what it is to me Yeah, and I I just said, uh, I'm not gonna avoid jalen hurts because he'll be on like 16 percent or 17 percent of rosters. Yeah, I mean he might get up to like 20 some but I find that hard to believe with how many quarterbacks No, he won't be there's no way he will be this week with the number of quarterbacks available Again, it's not about hurts. That's about seeking out guys who are under rostered. I'm not trying to avoid chalk I'm trying to have a fine guys who are under roster relative to where they should be And to me, that's that's kyler murray You talked about robinson. You talked about a higbie. Do you prefer a guy in terms of a salary saver on that side? between those two I want to say like the reaction is higbie But I feel like we have more viable tight ends to go to in that range and not a whole lot at receiver Who have like if you want to go with if you want to get like a jt lineup in there Something like that. You could go with a kyler earths a rob stack. Yeah Honestly kyler earths cup works too like you can make that work and not be super super top heavy. So I think this game is a good value stack that has upside which I like last week robinson had just the five targets We're in 97 percent of the routes but the routes weren't really the issue The 14 percent target share um two end zone targets I don't like almost a second touchdown. Yeah I don't I don't hate it I don't hate it, but I don't love it either is what I would say So uh prefer higbie between the two personally Right there. Okay. Let's dive into our trends discussion one thing you've been Referencing throughout the show is air yards air yards and very important. Um, despite what people may say So you dug into how important they are and what they mean. So what'd you find when you were looking at that data? Yeah, um, so I tweeted about how chrysal avay got over 300 air yards in Week two and that that had only been done for other times since 2016 and been done specifically by Mike evans marquise brown holio jones and a j green So that's good company But look the the ratio of reactions was much more positive But I got a few like this doesn't matter Um, it's a made-up stat kind of like vibe He scored only 10 points and like I get it Trust me. I understand How fantasy points are scored. I know the formula. It's not that complex um, you know in terms of how to Get fandal points actually added and I know that it doesn't come from air yards like I get that but Air yards are important and understanding how to implement them is also important Since 2016 if you look on a full season basis Among receivers with at least 25 targets air ads have a correlation with fandal points of 0.85 Perfect correlation is one That's the same as touchdowns And touchdowns actually factor in heavily with fandal points It's higher than routes, which is a 0.82 targets are a 0.93 There's still obviously a great metric overall, but to call air yards irrelevant as dismissive On a single game basis among receivers since 2016 with at least five targets In-game air yards fall to a 0.63 correlation Because there's a lot of unrealized air yards on a per game basis that that it can exist Targets though fall to a 0.71 So it's not like it's just about targets either And beyond the numbers that actually lead to fandal points So if you look if you exclude catches yards touchdowns air ads are just a really good predictor of fantasy success and overall usage We see that unfold in target depth, which we reference often For simplicity, I'm just going to round these numbers But last year the average receiver target led to 1.4 fandal points On throws of 20 plus yards downfield. It was 2.0 That's a 42 increase over the target average on 10 plus yards downfield It was 1.7, which is a 20 increase on throws from zero to nine air yards Roughly half of all targets. It's 1.2, which is about 90 percent So we kind of see a break even point or like a differentiation point At 10 yards downfield. So this stuff matters now. Here's the thing as I said Targets correlate stronger with fandal points than pure air yards. You know what that tells us in a literal sense Play the guys who get the targets You know what everyone already knows. It's to play the guys who get the targets the issue Is that those guys have really high salaries? So what does it tell us practically? It tells us that when you're breaking down non-elite guys like a chris alave or like an alan robinson or whoa Non-elite and chris alave. How dare you sure sure, okay? Yeah Take them back some people back some people think he's not not quite elite Yeah, but whenever you're looking at guys who aren't cooper cup or jesson jefferson, and you know that they're going to get targets Six targets from one player and six targets for another player Could be very very different So you should be looking at things like a dot or Downfield work for guys who like cooper cup doesn't have the best a dot that doesn't mean he's not A great receiver. He has the volume to overcome that so We know targets and points Are the goal, but air yards can help differentiate whenever we're looking down the list That's why it's important That's why I don't cite total air yards numbers for like cooper cup unless i'm just throwing it in It's not like cooper cups areas aren't good enough his target volume is is crazy That's the difference is we know targets matter for everyone But whenever we're not guaranteed as much volume Things like air yards things like target depth can help us find These receivers who actually have some sort of added upside on the same number of targets compared to someone Like a hunter ren fro with the 3.4 yard eight. So I don't know what we can really get into here. I just wanted to go over some of this stuff explain why it's important, but Anything jump out to you in terms of how you use I know you use target like downfield targets a lot You don't use air yards as much as I do But any shortcomings here anything that you really think Stands out from this well, I'm talking about a lave specifically because So you talked about air yards and targets mattering, but he got both last week It wasn't just like downfield looks he had so he had 13 overall targets Seven of those were 15 or fewer yards downfield. He got bunnies too So I like that blend because it means he's probably gonna catch a couple and he has the shot to to ping a deep one He's 5500 dollars is a lobby the most attractive mid 5 5000 range receiver to you. I think he has to be And the thing is i'm gonna talk about point chasing on my next trend, but You know he didn't score that many points so people But the the underlying workload was fantastic and that matters and yes sort of a specific game script and james really threw it deep but This is how you kind of find guys who have workloads that are worth targeting in the value range Yeah, I agree. I think that with with a lave specifically it works for me Like you said, I tend to look at a combination where I look at and this is what you do too But like a combination of overall targets with deep targets and then red zone targets kind of let me know Are they getting overall work and are they getting juicy targets and or high leverage targets and juicy also works But for a lave across two games including week one. He's at a 22 target share for 5 5500 dollars. That's sweet He has a 39 deep target share for 5500 dollars. That's sweet. He has a 22 red zone share that'll work. So for 5500 dollars I i'm most inclined to break my my balanced build for chrysal lave this week I think that's what I would say So i'm glad you talked about this that did increase my interest in a lave Just kind of reaffirmed that like we actually have someone down there. We could feel pretty good about I want to talk to you about the chief's offense in the bookmaker section We did not discuss the offense and my numbers like the most this week and that is the chief's by a pretty significant margin so I wanted to dig into their offense to see The best wrap are taking advantage of their efficiency is and the primary answer seems to be just use travis kelsey He has 22 percent of the overall target so far. He's the lone guy about 16 percent kelsey is at 22 percent of the deep targets and 17 percent of the red zone so Not dominant shares there, but we know He has yardage juice. He showed that week one He feels tight end 78 is not bad for a salary for him. I like travis kelsey this week I know very bold on my part marquez valda scantley and judo smith shuster Both have a 15 target share michael harbin at 14 percent harbin leads with 33 percent of the deep targets mbs is at 22 percent harbin is also tied with kelsey for the lead with three red zone targets I think the deep threads here interesting because the colts defense coordinator is gus bradley who was with the raiders last year And he does not run that too high safety defense that is forced the chiefs to be a bit more of a bunny offense the past two years So in two games of the raiders last year tyrie kill had made out of 13.9 yards Miko harbin was at 15.5 fire and pringle 14.2 of the four guys with double digit targets Hardman leads with a 12.8 yard adopt this year kelsey's at 10.1 mvs 8.7 juju 7.7 mvs and hardman very volatile, but Maybe in game stacks. Maybe we'll be in there juju is 79 yards a week one. So he's definitely on the menu I just think the downfield guys here get a boost as for clad edwards elair I probably won't get there his snap rates will hit 50% eventually if they're in like a Competitive game. He doesn't get stepped on or whatever The targets he's getting are creative and good, but the yardage and the yard has been good too I just think that the other guys around him will have more bankable roles So i'm okay if he kills me this week. So I think the easy way out is using Mahomes with kelsey and walking away But i'm fine filtering in the others to multi entry Is that too much of a leap for you or are the roles good enough for juju mvs hardman in a game that I at least desperately want to stack I think good enough is probably the way to put it. Yeah, um where they're definitely not jumping out I think the issue is No, none of those really separate from the rest Correct, and then I got a guess right and naturally some of them have more upside baked in Uh, then you know juju, I would say probably the lowest upside based on his role um That said his a dot is uh 7.7. That's about three yards shy of receiver average, uh still Still gets like two two downfield targets per game, which for me is 10 plus yards downfield Not completely irrelevant in the red zone. I might honestly Lean juju and hope that He gets a higher target share sure, but I just don't know how to guess right i'm kind of Viewing them not not in the same offensive context, but similar to to washington's receivers It's fair. I think they're a bit below them though. It's me at least. Um, you know, I give you more or the chief I think washington is better Yeah, um I give you 10 mahomes lineups. How are you stacking them? It's the problem with me in my homes this week Probably If i'm going in on my homes, I think I got a bank on kelsey being relevant Have like having a big game. So probably six kelsey And just because i'm me Like three mvs one juju if i'm playing like tournaments Like and just not what i'm getting is not playing everyone. Yeah So i'm gonna do the opposite six kelsey. I agree that part, but then one each of mvs juju and um hardman and then one with mahomes by himself because You just assume that the stuff is all spread out and there's no one who posts a big score I've I can't recall if i've ever done a mahomes naked lineup I think I will this week though if I have Which I will have 10 mahomes lineups. So like I think I'll have a naked mahomes in there, but 60 percent kelsey. I think it's the way I want to go in terms of stacking with him I think that's the part I feel most definitive about Yeah, so my question to you is would you duplicate a lineup and play The those guys or would you try to change things around because if I change things around with the few hundred I get here in there Then I am going to feel nervous that I changed my lineup because it's going to be hard enough to hit the right The right chief's receiver. Yeah, this is like a duplicate and wrote just rotate in the three I think that's a lot easier because we know the only two guys to stack on the opposing side are jt and pitman So yes to your answer your question. Yes. I think so personally love it The good thing about the cheese is we're not point chasing because their guys don't score a lot of points I'll find justin watson that brings us to your second trend talking about point chasing My research has shown that point chasing is a plague in dfs You did more research into looking at how guys do at the week after scoring. So what did you find when you dug into that? Yeah, I mean we we say point chasing a lot and why we shouldn't do it But I think it's good to set some sort of baseline research early in the season It's also something that I don't necessarily implement on a week to week basis as well as I should so I'm trying to fix that now Um touchdowns are not scored in bunches. They're pretty random So just because you scored one week doesn't mean you're going to score At a much higher rate than your full season average if anything it probably means you're going to regress closer to your Your average which might mean A little bit of an underperformance But I dug back into weekly results since 2016 and since 2016 among players with a salary of at least 5500 on consecutive main slates So guys we'd actually see on a main slate last week and you know see again running backs who scored One week go up an average of 207 dollars in terms of vandal salary But score six fewer vandal points the next week despite still having a solid scoring rate the following week because You know for for running backs if you score you Generally have a It's like a selection bias thing where the guys who do score tend to have more of a goal line role score a higher percentage of their teams touchdowns, but um, so I want to make sure that that's clear and something that I'll Reiterate is that this is not a if you score one week You literally cannot score the next week or you will regress or whatever it is That's not the case, but the non scoring group drops about 140 in salary and scores 3.4 More vandal points the following week than they did the week before this does not account for things like match up So that could be baked in here But it's more about like a recency bias who scored that six in your mind who didn't score this guy's kind of go down in salary on average but also kind of fall out of favor with with how we view things but Tight ends who scored go up an average of 150 dollars in vandal salary But score 7.6 fewer vandal points and have a below average score rate 28 of their games of this qualifying set had a touchdown the following week compared to 30 for the overall average But a tight ends who didn't score the week prior drop By about 85 dollars in vandal salary So not a huge jump but score 3.1 more points and score about just over the position average So we see a little bit more of that correction in terms of scoring When it comes to tight ends and then a receiver Receivers who scored last week go up over 170 dollars on average Score eight fewer vandal points, but still score around the same frequency as the full sample Those who didn't score drop about a hundred in salary score 3.3 more points than they did the following week And score at about position average So it's actually like kind of see these the scoring rates stabilize a bit but one thing to think about is that If you're scoring you probably have some elevated volume or your offense is doing better And then we're talking about like this the sort of all bakes in Offensive and roll regression from one week to the next so This is not about assuming that these guys bust Rather that they play more to their long-term baseline But however, they see a salary increase that they scored see a decrease if they didn't and then we're kind of chasing that points in terms of how the The salary shake out even if you remove touchdowns and just look at vandal points without touchdowns Because I wanted to make sure that this was not just did you score or not? Obviously you're going to have an extra six points Although for a a one-yard touchdown catch at 6.6 points. That's pretty drastic to lose from one week to the next But if you look at just vandal points without touchdowns running backs who did score drop about 1.6 points The following week an increase 0.6 the next week tight ends drop about two points and receivers drop about 2.7 points the following week. So we actually see a little bit of a conversion Decrease as well things like catch rate over expectation High one week leads to touchdowns A little bit low or more normal than the following week. You don't actually catch as many passes. So that's stuff is all sort of baked in so You know, it's not about Never playing guys who scored the following week. It's being cognizant that their salaries almost always go up The guys who don't their salaries go down and the roles themselves kind of don't They don't change drastically but based on their production without touchdowns it Scoring one week has kind of tied to an overperformance of what you do the next week anyway So I think it's really interesting. Um, and it's something I need to do a better job of just kind of using it Maybe as tiebreakers or someone like almanra saint brown this week being cognizant that he scored twice His salary is way up the role is still good. He can score this week But historically speaking It's something I should just be a little bit wary of Yeah, I think for me it's like you strip away the name and don't look at their player cards on fan duel I'm just looking for volume. So just try to ask yourself. Okay. This is the circumstance. This is this person's role This is their scoring environment. This is the game that they're in Stuff like that. This is their salary and try to ignore what happened from that perspective And if you still like a modern saint brown at 78 sick use him and like there are a lot of reasons to like him at that number but like try to separate that out so So actively thinking through being cognizant of which guys scored is helpful because it can help you That's like, oh, yeah, like Garrett Wilson had like an awesome situation last week I should use him a bunch and like Garrett Wilson is a good play compared to a salary I will say that up front. He is a good play, but make sure you're you're Flocking to that person based on their role and not based on what they did Um, so keep that in mind. I think that's a good overall thing and we do see it a lot and again looking at roster rates Quarterbacks who are popular score on average six points fewer the week they're popular than they did the week before so like people point chase and That's an important thing to keep in mind So I think that's a good overall discussion to have my second trend is about the Eagles offense some more to the chiefs It's it's all to a sick start. They're facing a pretty rough Washington defense this week So I think it's wise to dig in and see if there are any takeaways from this offense We know they're efficient. I don't need to dwell on that. They're very good But we also know where the ball is going because across the two games a j brown has a 36 target share That is with 50 of the deep work and 50 of the red zone work If you can make it work stacking in with Hertz is massively in play once again this week Devontae Smith and Dallas Goddard both at 17 target shares Neither guy has more than seven targets in any game so far this year But both these guys were productive without a touchdown on Monday for me both those guys are game stacks only because I think the volume is still not where you really want it to be If you think Washington keeps pace those guys are on the table If not, then it's mostly just Hertz and brown for me mild standards though is at least worth mentioning his name He has 95.5 yards per game so far from scrimmage He has 20 adjust opportunities his red zone share is 20 percent So those are both pretty bad numbers for 6800 dollars, but we can expect decent efficiency in this offense his salary of 6800 dollars So i'm not in on sanders, but i'm also not Entirely out and I could be talked into it if you were super into him I know you're not a mild sanders guy, but just throw that out there as for Hertz at 8100 dollars He probably should be the default cash game quarterback this week. That's too low of a number for his floor and upside Even with the the total coming down In this game. I feel really good about it. So what's your read on the eagles and this game in general? love them I I know on the the Monday morning recap show When we did the salary scroll I tagged Hertz as Like the guy I was probably gonna build around this week Then he had a really good game. Um, I talked about point chasing But it's still It's a matter of Did the salary go up? Obviously, no in this case. Um And is the situation still good? Yes, because again, there's a difference between Playing well and then busting and playing well and then playing more to your baseline And if you play more to your baseline in jail and Hertz the baseline is still higher than the 8100 dollar salary in this game So I think he's fantastic. Um, I've been wavering on Like a top Receiver to name is a love in the player picks I think it's going to be a jay brown. Mm-hmm because at that salary he can still well He can still overperform that pretty substantially but the role is honestly phenomenal and I can get there with a Sort of moderate build at running back. So I feel pretty good about a brown this week I don't know how much more i'm getting there uh with this offense. So what are your thoughts on I know I know you like a jay brown, but what are your thoughts on davante smith and dallas goddard? game stacks only um, and Honestly, probably pretty limited in game stacks. I'll probably treat brown like kelsey where 60 percent of my Hertz line-ups are attached to brown Just because like his role is sick and I don't think washington can stop him. So I I think I would treat him like kelsey effectively So if I I have a metric I should probably just use this more and simplify things, but I wait targets, whether it's uh Just a general target a downfield target or a red zone target if you look at that and uh use like a weighted target share metric cooper cups number one at 39 percent and a jay brown is second At 38 percent and actually drake london's 35 love him this week too. So not the prides about that at all Um, okay Let's talk about the washington side of things here How do you feel about the receivers? Obviously like they all have paths to a good game, but it's it's three different dudes And they all have paths to being Not particularly great. Although honestly like they haven't like Have they had a bad game yet? Like her to samuel has not Lauren I think week one might not have been great for him Now you said It's been fine both games. Um dotson's been fine both game. They've all been fine all all both games so far all three have been fine I would most want to play McLaren, I think uh Find the salary to get there four downfield targets per game Just the 14 percent overall target share though 16 percent if you wait it like it's it's kind of tough To feel annoyed with you specifically Because if you on monday had not mentioned her to samuel's rushing I would have been lower on him But you had to mention that he's gotten five rush attempts so far this year and now i'm like cuckoo for him again like Do rushing attempts for wide receivers matter? Not that much But it's an indication they want the ball in his hands and that to me is a signal that I care about Um, so i'm gonna wreck samuel one despite the really bad adott because it's very clear they want the ball in his hands and He might not get 85 receiving yards, but 85 total yards. That's doable Curtis debo samuel. I know he's it's people named samuel. Um Just wrecking the show Because they you know No, they wreck the show because you don't understand what i'm saying when I say that debo's hard to model out because No, you said he's the worst player of all time. That's what I heard. That's what I heard I'm just I'm just reporting facts. No, I know what you heard. Yeah, I'm just reporting facts here Sorry, we have our poro hat on my big j journals and uh had on uh So i'll go samuel one i'll go mcclore and two dots and three, but If I have six aj brown jalen hurts line-ups, I can rotate through and have all three of them twice so Dotson's really over performed with the catch rate numbers But I think there's a potential for his role to expand because he's a baller Yes, there's potential for his role to expand from a 93 route rate No, for all actually a target perspective because he keeps like torching guys. Yeah, and then if that's the case terry's gonna be Full dusty. Yeah finally He's he he might be your diva samuel No, he's his sour I like him more now So I don't think that's well you like diva more too as the year went along So I don't know I guess it was never a matter of whether I liked him or not I just said he was really hard to model You said you was unlike any other you said you said that you hoped you stubbed his toe on legos I heard it. I heard it. I heard it explicitly. Um Sorry again reporting facts here Any antonio gibson or no and any mile sanders Gibson's role got worse Uh, it I was really impressed with the target numbers and the route numbers in week one, but then it got worse So that that scares me. Yeah, uh, miles or no Uh, no I think he's like in play. He's viable. I probably won't use him, but I think he's viable this week Yes, that wasn't the question. Am I gonna use him? No, is he viable and especially in game stacks? Sure, but I don't like running back who When I watch when I see them on red zone, he might not even be on the field And that is not what I want to see for my running back that I roster Yeah, if it were a Tougher slate where there weren't a lot of options. I could see it, but it's not a tough slate. There are a lot of options There's too many options. Correct. Exactly. Everywhere. I agree. Let's dig into some weather for this week There is a chance of rain in national for the titans and raiders wins. They're at 10 miles per hour So slight downgrade offense is there wins in miami for the bills and dolphins currently 12 miles per hour There is a slight chance of rain early on if the wind sticks at 12 miles per hour That would be a slight downgrade for both those offenses wind speeds are 11 miles per hour in chicago for the bears and texans I know you care deeply about passing offenses there, but downgrade Those passing offenses similar story in carolina for the panthers and saints winds are at 10 miles per hour in that one I think the overall takeaway here is nothing is super concerning yet But check back on it later and potentially downgrade if wind speeds are 10 miles per hour higher Which is kind of a gradient downgrading as the wind increases Let's go now into our positional plays for week number three brandon Who are you building around a quarterback this week? Uh gillian hurts Um, I know it's going to be a bit chalky, but also with jump. First of all quarterbacks. Don't get chalky We say that all the time. It's very rare to see like mega chalk at quarterback um And we have so many names on the list that hurts isn't going to be super popular From that regard, but even if he is doesn't matter because quarterback chalk performs really well, especially in the stud level Again, I I liked him monday morning Said that he was going to be someone that I that I like still like him He checks the high total rushing quarterback low wind box um at a really good number so He's going to be my my building block for this week obviously I love Virtually all of the the top, you know, seven basically caught him right up. I like but if I'm trying to be a little bit Different without being dumb. I think jesson herbert stands out to me at 82 I don't think we'll get a lot of buzz. It's been 10 days since we've seen them play on thursday night football Um, he's not going to be 100 percent most likely So I think people will probably just avoid him to a degree, uh, but And you know the jaguars blank the colds, but the colds are the colds without michael pittman are not like the chargers With potentially kean and alan so i'm not that concerned there. Um, so definitely consideration despite that injury Would love to know if he's healthy like healthier so that he can run a bit, but I think he's got three stacking options even though you hate jerry whatever it Um, so i'm into it. I'm not pushing back on that comment. It's it's accurate. Anyway, um, my first love at quarterback is patrick My homes. I'm not avoiding hers because he's popular Not avoiding josh alex is popular. I just think I want to get to guys who I think will be a bit under roster this week And those guys to me are my homes and kyler murray my homes playing indoors facing a defense A defense that got shredded by trevor lorence. I think is good So that's not like an indictment of them but like so is my homes And facing a defensive scheme that he has traditionally done very well against and had a lot of upside against So we know where the ball is going. That's travis kelsey for the most part I think I can stack him with kelsey pretty easily and make that work this week So I think my homes will be under roster compared to where he should be I also love kyler for a similar reason 7 800 dollars It's a week where I need to save some salary and he does get me that without sacrificing upside and We know murray's not running a ton But he's running when he needs to and he might need to in a divisional game against a very good team The rams just lost troy hill their cornerback. The defense has struggled so far this year and Similar to my homes. I know how to stack and that's with marquise brown with zack erz And you log out from there game stacks and that one also pretty easy via higby a rob and that guy called The cooper cup as well running back. Where are you going there? I delve and cook a three. I think is probably my number one play just overall at running back Which I mean, I know he's number one love but we go by salary here And I think he's probably the guy i'm trying to get most exposure to third biggest under performer for me in terms of expected fandal points Tied with another love of mine actually cook's been a bit of an afterthought I think in like the fantasy point column That's despite 24 adjusted opportunities per game, which is carries plus two x targets 73 snap rate 5.5 targets per game, but a catch rate over expectation of minus 11 percent So could bounce back there 72 yards from scrimmage on that workload can really only go up from him for For him love this game. So I think dal is very much in the conversation For the the overall rb1 this week second loves Leonard for net at 7200 I think he's If you look at pure process the best play Because his workload is fantastic One of three running backs this year with an 80 snap rate or higher through two games He's second in route rate The offensive efficiency is the big question mark here But for net is a dual threat quarterback or a running back. So I think that Even if he doesn't score he can get there on yardage and in receptions So I like that at that salary green base the best composite running back match up across, you know, three three rushing metrics I use 95 percent first half snap rate as well best at the position. So I like that And third love this might be someone on your list too he is but david montgomery 7100 Another big regression candidate from the expected vandal points model played in that ugly game in week one I guess all of the bearish games probably gonna be ugly But 22 adjusted opportunities per game 93 scrimmage yards per game 64 route rate 21 target share for three per game I was gonna say Houston's definitely not like the kind of matchup that I worry about running back I'm in a 76 first half snap rate last week. So I think he's in play My biggest question mark here might be trying to get back up to like d'andre swift instead Sure, but I like these guys. Yeah, I did too. So I have lenny and montgomery on my list too for loves I think that if I were to pivot and add one more guy in there be erin jones $7,000 facing the bucks who are a very very very difficult rush defense but just lost to keen hicks and I think that does matter quite a bit might downgrade their rush defense We know that erin rogers wants the ball and erin jones hands. He said that And matt leflore said that after week one as well and they did that in week two against chicago Obviously aj dylan out carried erin jones, but also Idg af They're getting the ball more creative ways to erin jones So I think erin jones if I were to add one more guy Into that equation. I would go him. I kind of want to get a read on roster rates for those three guys lenny montgomery and jones Because all three have passed a failure But all three have passed to a good ceiling So if there's one of them who will kind of slip through the cracks and be a bit under rostered Maybe I'll go that way. Um, I think all three are good. I'll use all three And I'll be happy there. My first love could have also been dalvin cook I could have gone three for three with you, but I went joe mixon. Um Again, it kind of comes down to roster rates for a single entry Um, I could just go both as well if I can get there. I'm not sure if I can but I love both these guys Nixon actually leads the slate in a just opportunities per game to open the year 21 carries six nap targets. That's inflated by the number of snaps they've run. It's it's a big number so that will come down but The rate numbers are very good too 114 yards and scrimmage per game facing the jets I think they're a better team than perception, but it's a great spot for him I think that if I get the read that mixon will be more popular than dalv I'll pivot to dalvin stead But both these guys tremendous options this week and I do Like them a lot and I want to be building around those two guys But again, lenny and montgomery are my other two loves I'll toss erin jones in there as well Wide receiver what you going towards there? It is a really tough one to pick one Who's realistic that I can build around if I had to if I could pick any one It'd be jesson jefferson this week, but he's not going to fit like my common builds. So I need to look elsewhere Aji brown is even tough But I think I'm going to go there because I can't get to him If I go with like the sort of mid-range value at running back those guys that we talked about He is involved everywhere on the field downfield red zone all over the place like the game 38% weighted target share as I mentioned 109 yards per game 10 and a half targets per game Can still overperform that number If I really had to pick someone else in the 7000 range instead Would be keen and if he's healthy If not, maybe michael pitman If I have to go there Second love and gun the whole way down to drake london snap rate went up from 73 percent to 80 percent in week two Again was not fully healthy during the preseason. So you expect a little bit of a slow start for him Slow start a little bit in terms of the snaps, but definitely not in the production Week two 12 targets 86 yards touchdown That was almost half of the team's targets and air yards. You'll love those five of the 12 were Targets were at least 10 yards downfield two were in the red zone Fantastic workload. Um, and I think I said he was third in weighted target share, which is nuts So I think that he's just under salary. He's going to be a lock for me Not a complete lock, but in a in our head to head. He's locked in Yeah, and I know that we might have to track the wind here, but chris a lobby. I think is under salaried I talked about the dangers of point chasing, but it's not point chasing because he didn't convert enough on his role um The workload is phenomenal honestly, and we can look at week one and two Combined for most situations for you know rookies guys changing teams We can separate that out a little bit more and his bump from week one to week two Was a 79 route rate in week one 87 percent a week two I think there's just a massive potential here for a lobby at 55. So even if the winds up, I think I'm gonna go with a lobby Yeah, I agree that he's the one guy below 6 000 actually feel like Good about and I might feel better than good about him You've talked me into him pretty heavily and I agree with the sentiment there My first love is marquise brown. He hasn't had elite production yet, but it's it's close He had that one drop uh laid in that game on sunday He's getting good work 21 overall target share 42 of the deep work and 29 the red zone great matchup He's at home. I love getting high a dot guys and spots like that and brown is that so brown A standout for me at seven thousand dollars stacked up with kyler. I do love drake london. I want to get a read on his popularity in tournaments because Receivers who are popular and gains with very low totals have an awful hit rate So if london gets teamed up due to his production, I will pivot But there are other guys I can turn to there london like you said great workload so far 6200 dollars I'm not worrying about seattle secondary So I want to get a read on roster rate, but if i'm good to go there He will be in my lineups for sure. He'll be in a cash game lineup regardless, but uh for for tournaments I would like to get there too if I can similar line of thought for garret wilson. I think that it's less likely that he gets teamed up based on What I've seen the talk around london so far this week But the workload is real good. Even if you include week one whereas route route rate was low 23 percent overall target share 30 percent of the deep work 42 percent in the red zone His salary is 6100 dollars uh brandon Facing off against an ohio team played college football in ohio. Yeah, yeah, again back to back weeks little uh Homecoming not homecoming revenge narrative. I don't know what I'll whatever you want to go with there Are we too low on that game? Maybe well, I like mixing a lot. So Mixon wilson game stacks. I don't want to get to burrow. I don't I'm not going that far But like a mixon burrow game stack. I'm sorry mixon wilson game stack kind of like that Good production not the worst game You know I'm into it. Yeah T Higgins was in my when I was trying to list like a another number one play that could be fun I think that's a good. That's a good call out too. Um, if I can't go to london or wilson I'd probably pivot to occur to samuel first in this lower 6 000 range 6300 dollars I do like a lobby of 55 who brandon mentioned and then Other guys you can consider if roster rates gets a bit too heavy I guess like juju Her alan robinson, but I like these guys more. I just like their their roles their roles are very very good And I want to buy into them while the salaries are still low tight end. We got there I'm gonna go with darin waller. Um 6400. I think it's still a good salary For him scored last week, but the salary came down moderate total for the game tight spread so back and forth, um Tennessee's allowed two touchdowns on 10 targets at titans waller's fifth and weighted target share among titans adod is over It's almost 11 yards, which is really good for a tight end a fifth in yards per out rate among the position I know that there might be some reasons to be concerned his first half snap rate did drop a lot, but I think that he's not salaried as like a super elite. So i'm fine with it and second love is zacher Under salaried might honestly be the way that I have to go in cash games Um gets me back up into that elite tier at receiver Uh 79 route rate, which is six the monk or it's also a sixth in weighted target share among titans getting red zone work The rams have faced six tight end targets this year This is the the one concern six tight end targets this year against dos and knocks and coyote pits Which could scare you or you guys weren't involved in their offense or those guys could be dust So who could say But even if he doesn't have a huge game 52 50 200 opens up a lot And I know that we don't want low upside guys, but that's zacher. It's not a low upside tight end correct all things considered So I agree. I like actually like both those guys in that game and they're my two loves for this week Tyler Higby and zacher. It's I do want to get to kelsey I think that for tournaments Mark andrews deserves consideration because like you said Uh high salary and stud tight ends who are not popular tend to be pretty good plays again My number is like the over in that game. I don't um, but like my numbers do so I want to actively like shoehorn in a couple andrews lineups to make sure I get there But for the most part it'll be around kelsey and then uh higby and earth's higby 26 target share this year 31 the red zone no touchdowns yet. I don't think Salary 5700 uh tight ends racking of volume against the cardinals Pretty sure noa gray had a touchdown against them, but he's like the best tight end of all time So that's again not a ding he had a red zone target. Maybe it was uh, jody forts joey fortson jody jody foster jody fortson Jody fortson had a score against them in week one and then waller had the touchdown last week So I think it's match we can turn to and feel good about that earth's salary is too low Like you said 19 percent overall share 36 percent in the red zone 75 yards in week two Good game to stack i'm willing to spend down this week as specifically on these two guys because of their volume Don't really want any other low salary tight ends um Not really super into goddard Not an angriom conklin Hurst Maybe I could use some urban like game stacks. That's primarily it defense. What you got there My favorite part of the show. Love it. I know I know I was waiting for it with baited breath eagles Why Fifth and adjusted passing on that expected points per play allowed to a poser opposing offenses um, doesn't mean they call karsten wendt's a poser no But also the narrative of going up against karsten wendt's game So this does not mean that I don't like washington's pieces at all still like the receivers enough, but we want sacks and interceptions at You know for our defenses we want play volume We want passing volume wendt's can give us that got six and a half percent sack rate 1.5 picks per game So the havoc factor I think could be there for 4 000 and they're a pass heavy team Which is very good for opposing defenses. So I think that does make sense. Did you see the always sunny graphic during monday night football? um They had during the eagles game. They had like that weird espn graphic where it was like an always sunny thing Is like the the gang gets some new members And it was like jordan davis sitting at a table with like a nasal strip on and like chowing down on some food Do you know that reference? No Well, I mean, I know it's always sunny, but yeah, but a specific thing within it. Yeah, what? uh, that's when I don't know if we should get into this now, but uh D is in a boxing match against the daughter of her father's Like nemesis from back in the day. She takes steroids charlie takes the steroids and then he's like Are they implying that jordan davis is on steroids? I don't know. I didn't make the graphic. I was just explaining the plot of a hundred dollar baby hundred dollar Disrespectful my defense of love is achieved. They've been generating a lot of pressure and facing They're facing a struggling an offensive line in the colts right now She's ranked third in pressure rate thus far. The colts sacrate is eight percent. Matt ryan is dust. It's a high total There's not terrible pace in this game. I'm also fine going back to the bangles against wacko for flacco this week I know they let a lot go down last week including myself But I think they're at a better spot this week because it's a past heavier offense I like the eagles as you mentioned. I do like the raiders and seahawks as well So decent number of defenses with salaries of forty one hundred dollars or lower. We can choose from for this week That's all we got here on the week three preview brand any final thoughts for you From you for the good people before we send them off to fill out their winning lineups week number three We probably say this a lot, but And you say this more some of the other from you but go through and rank Yeah, like Maybe just like of all the positions like rank like I want to make sure I have justin jefferson this week Like I think he's gonna have a huge game in this matchup I want to rank him number one for me therefore I need to make sure I build lineups that give me access to him because it can be very easy to like overlook that stuff and You're then just sort of building lineups around The value you think is there and then you're not actually playing the guys that you think are gonna go off So like we we try to lay out a lot of process Behind the plays our plays are not always going to hit but The process is there then feel good about it. But this is kind of weak where You know, you might think stuff on digs does it again or it's like everyone's sleeping on jonathan taylor You know, so I think you can justify a lot of plays this week And I think that's the key is you you're allowed to be picky Because even the best plays like I love josh allen. He's an amazing play this week But like the winds gives me an out to be picky. So You're gonna miss out on something big this week. It's gonna happen. You have to just embrace that and be okay with it It's gonna happen You can still win money while missing out on some big plays But the way to do that is to make sure that the guys you're playing Have big ceilings, correct And I I think I actually talked about this last week whenever he had two rushing quarterbacks If lamar went off nobody's matching that and tuha did because he had like a hall of fame game golf almost did too Future hall of fame or jerry golf by the way, but again, like maybe maybe this week You think it's stafford cousins burrow like those guys can do it, but Those are much more outlier performances. Yeah And you're also naming a handful of guys who can do it instead of The few who we know we're gonna have or generally have a good game. So yeah, yep, exactly Okay, that is all that we have here for this week on the heat check fantasy podcast But we'll be back with you on monday to recap everything that went down in this week across week three in the nfl So make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast And also the fan dual youtube page to watch it as we are live at 10 a.m On monday or check it out after the fact on the number fire daily fantasy podcast be branded People have questions for you on twitter where can they find you there? Um at gridola 13 gdu la at 13 and i am on twitter at jim sonnis You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in for this week. Good luck to you with your week three nfl dfs lineups We'll talk to you once again monday to wrap it all up. This has been a heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire