 The following is a presentation of TFNN the Tiger technician hour with your host as a Chapman call now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 Hello everyone Friday March the 11th Tiger technicians hour now is up 135 at 33,300 and was 3,000 32,000 315 we're looking at it went right to the 14 period moving average a little black line right there is now sitting on the nine period explanation the pink nine expert nine period explanation moving average and that is still very negative because it's way underneath the 14 that means the cell mode is in progress process and not only is this very poor action considering the last three days where they should have been a move towards the 33,700 so far with the rumor the Putin rumor at 638 or something this morning that suddenly saw the there's a 10-minute child it's just meandering yet the 42 70s area whoosh it screams up a thought of what nothing says that's some fantastic earnings announcement coming out of the announced and the market just loves the announcement or what is it so then I suddenly see that it's a prudent something about Putin if you're going to believe anything about that Putin says well good luck to you all I can say is that I expected the rally to pull back a bit and within the period of five minutes to 10 to five minutes past 11 that would be the most important period for me of the day other than the last 40 minutes of the session and the reason being you've got that hysterical opening flurry you've got this huge pullback I mean look at this every bar just makes a little version makes a lower highs and low lows and eventually hits the 200 period of moving average in the 10-minute chart in the E-mini where it's sitting right now this is the moment where you find new buyers saying hey you know I just you've got stocks that have been hammered this is a really good chance to just put a little bit of money to work and if enough fund managers do it it'll just form some kind of a base year in the 4250s for the E-mini and slowly but surely during my show maybe by 1035 this morning eastern time you're suddenly looking at the E-mini holding quite nicely at 4275 maybe 40 maybe a little higher than that that says to me good and then what I'm expecting is that no matter how well it does in today if it can do well in today we don't even know yet because it really has to hold 4250 key support goes under that is just too far away from 200 period moving average this is the E-mini I'm talking about to come back and then break all the way back up into those moving averages at the 4280 4285 area whoops there we go down again now we down three so this is really for me it's just critical and it's critical for a number of reasons it's also one of the reasons why I decided I would make time in the 11 to 12 hour where Larry usually does his show and Larry's got a voice problem so I thought if I was able to do it I do want to in any case for my subscribers we did some of it yesterday I didn't finish enough of it but I wanted to go through a lot of the commodities I need to do that because I need the whole picture I like to get the big picture on the weekend when I do my market overview video I'm I'm trying to cover it as much as possible and I have extended the time I usually go now for about an hour I tried to get as much done for those people who are short on time for the for the current positions that we have and then I go on to all these other areas so this is what I'm looking at right now the I'm going back to this market right here these are the child on the left is the dating chart in the middle is the weekly on the right is the monthly chart and we're going to go to the S&P because this is becoming more and more important now I talk about a candle I called it for years now decades I've called it the Chapman wave Roman candle I've titled a Chapman wave under the umbrella of all my other techniques that I've discovered and worked on I can't call it a proprietary since I talk about it openly so it's not really it's out there but what it is is there's a candle that over the years certainly that October high back in 2008 confirmed what I've been doing this all the time but that was one of those moments where it really confirmed for a candle to say I've made a particular pattern and these are the criteria this pattern requires if it's going to either break down or to break upside so the candle we're talking about is this one I call the Chapman wave Roman candle the market opens towards the highs and usually it's a high highs it means whatever the high is on a look back period of a lot of bars right so it's a buy signal going to buy mode and now it's gotten to a point where it could be a little overboard and in this case the S&P it had 4818.62 and that was just a tad higher than the 488.93 high of December so that's January we close the month with a candle that had an opening price let's do the whole thing opening price of 47 78.14 had a high of 4818.62 plunge I say plunge I mean plunge down to 4222.62 and then intramount this can happen even intro bar into whatever it is but intramount it's amazing it managed to close at 45 15.55 now the candle that I talk about is at a top I have the same rule at a bottom I also have the same rule if it's inverted just on if you're looking at these charts because the daily chart came back to 42 22.62 I believe that was a 24th of January that's the candle the rule of thumb was if at any point for a shorter period you always have to go to the shorter period in this case is daily chart in 120 minute chart if we go for more than 90 minutes underneath the midpoint in that case I believe I call the midpoint right there 43.05 I think I said 43.05 I might say 43.00 but 43.05 that suggests that there's going to be a retest of the low or even lower than that but if within two to three sessions there is a push above preferably a close above but a push above that holds making that closing candle of the 24th 48 10.13 if there is a close below that you got to be careful but if there is a move that pushes above it that Roman candle can be a big Roman candles these are fireworks it lights up this could be a trigger for a move much higher well we got that move in a rank of 45.95 and then it failed for it failed for many reasons but it certainly broke that pattern and was a very positive chapter of Roman candle at a potential low it was also the 200 period moving average I want to get into that now let's get back to the monthly candle there's a reason why I'm spending some time on this because I'd say if at any point in the following month I'm not going to go to a daily chart I'm going to prefer to go to a weekly chart this is so important there is a close below the 40 period so the green 9th period expansion moving average and at the time that was at about 44.38 that's a big negative and I that's the chapter of the candle that tends to look nice are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your 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happens to be a monthly could be a one-minute bar and it closes at least halfway to two-thirds above the low if the following bars I might give it two bars sometimes three but the best is when it works the next bar if there is a close below halfway into the wick on in a shorter timeframe talking about monthly so I could have gone to date but I want you to go I went weekly I want to be as conservative as possible and there was a close that was in February more than halfway and underneath the nine-period exponential moving average which is still really way above the 14 and still very strong I said you've got to be careful now what we've got is we've done exactly the same thing but the month is what we've got we're on the 11th of March we've got you know weeks to go well this is very interesting because I wanted to show this because look at this wheat did exactly the same thing on when I was talking to Tom on Tuesday when I was interviewing Tom in Tuesday afternoon I said yes this pattern that wheat opened pullback very gapped up off the two gap huge gap up days limit up didn't move just limit up the next day it opens just below and then there must have been residual action in sorry it opens it spikes up I guess it was another limit up and I went to 7 13 63 and a half this is on the continuous contract that's not the the futures that you would trade this is the continuous contract it's like the root and the high is exactly the same so it didn't really have a wick not even one quarter not even a tick but that has a pattern because it plunged down took out all of the all the limit ups I mean you can imagine what the people said oh I gotta get out I've got to get out they get out they get out of the high of the day and the next thing they're getting out at 13 1350 area and what happens it plunges down to 1164 round number love round numbers 1164 by the then closes at 1286 the bulls and the bears are flummox they have not a clue but he has the chapter we've methodology if the next session particularly the next session there is a shorter time frame meaning the 120 minute chart in my case that that has a bar that closes underneath in this case 1245 is called 1246 there's a really good chance that within a day or two you're going to not only test the left side low that's the low of 1164 round number but you're gonna go below it where's week today which is down 10 and 10 76 those people they got trapped at the top this is I mean talk about ugly but you're in enough you're in the futures market you're whatever it is in the market it is unlike other things you are you are playing with fire you know that so whatever you do you've got to have plans that immediate rate to some extent whatever you're doing so that 1357 down to today's love 1043 now I'm gonna be doing Larry's show only because I want to go through a whole bunch of these things a lot of commodities I didn't quite finish them yesterday we'll talk about them I just want to talk about the candle why it is so important so this is the third candle after the Roman candle it's holding the 14th period moving edge from yet from here you could have a major turn down you could have a major pop to at least 50% back to the 1216 all sorts of things are happening that's why I want you to do this and say this is a work in progress and when I was mentioning for the last week this time into Monday I was saying in terms of money management I had said quite some time ago if you are a long-term investor that was the time just if you take your money off like I'd recommended going into late fall in that whole October November period I said but so putting money back because I'm thinking end of February beginning of March is where we should get a normal really strong rally number one number two is within the context of markets namely when lost we were in a world war it wasn't yesterday it wasn't this this decade it wasn't last decade it was back in the 1930s 1940s so once there was an invasion of Ukraine I said to myself this is different now I have to look at whatever's happened up until now and say there could be an aberration of all sorts of things positive because crude oil was about to start moving it had already moved high that wasn't I mean anybody was blaming Russian Ukraine for the high price of gasoline I don't want to get into that I'm just telling you it was headed higher in any case but we're in a different focus right now so I said take now if the last tranche was put in two three weeks ago at the beginning of the month or the end of last month I'm recommending take some of that off or even take off the last tranche you want cash you want to have cash for anything and I might even recommend again to do that another time why we have not been in this situation you know in markets if you don't change to the direction of the month the courage if you're out in the water and the current changes or there is a storm on the horizon and you ignore it you ignore it at your peril do I care whether I'm right or wrong no I care if I'm alive I would care to have money in pocket to be able to play the game and lost for decades that was my point I want to make that point again I've made it before I'm doing it again now number number two in this whole aspect of the chapter we've Roman candle look we've had the big red candle at the top we followed with another red candle long wick lower but closed above we've got a long wick now that isn't as low as the 4111 was that 41 14.65 low of the 24th of February but we're making low loads the magnies turned out stochastic now only at 76% not at 80 on balance volumes pulled back sharply but the night is still way above the 14 which says for this to go the monthly chart in the S&P to go it's not even a cell signal yet but if it was to close sharply below 440 I'd say 4080 4080 I have to think about this as a monthly potential cell signal not yet a monthly because the nine to get under the 14 we'll probably have to go to 38 yeah somewhere in the 38 to 30 area and then you will get a really ugly cross over to the negative side from green to pink I wanted to go through that because it's technical Friday and these are all the things that to me are really important we come back and we'll go through bonds we'll go through everything else I'll be right back having fun trading the markets but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with become an apex creditor in the trading markets and joined the Tiger's Den trading room only at tfnn.com the Tiger's Den is an exclusive trading room where successful traders from around the world come to exchange trades and ideas join the den and surround yourself with the sharpest minds in the trading world subscribers to the Tiger's Den are also the first to have their questions answered live on air and can privately chat with our tfnn hosts live during their shows interact with other Tigers and Tigers as they share trading 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little bit if you look at the weekly chart there's a good chance that we've got a long-legged doji candle whoops whoops whoops whoops 1978 nope we've got a very interesting candle coming up here we'll see where it closes on the day but it is leg E and that is a leg C in the monthly chart uh this is look at this point it's a monthly chart but if this was a weekly chart I'd say this is chumway inverted roman candle at a high if at any point it's able to close in a shorter time from monthly so let's just imagine it was a weekly I say on a daily basis or intraday basis if it managed to close above 20.20 at any stage there's a good chance it's going to try to roam its way back to the most recent high this is the upside down chumway roman candle and if it starts to close for two sessions below the low of the bar remember this is I'm just using this as an example and that would be below 1903 um then there's a good chance it's going to go lower all right that's just the way we're looking at those things so there's silver now this is very interesting remember I said earlier in the week when I was doing the show I said there's a chance that silver will play catch up and my experience is being that gold leads the way in chart formation silver then follows then gold kind of stalls as silver plays catch up and then has a better looking chart and as they both looking pretty good that's when they both pull back all right so let's see where silver is right now silver there it is silver made a peeky also four sessions ago surfers holding a little bit better than gold's down 13 at ticks at 26.12 um same thing in the weekly chart legs see and the monthly chart really that monthly chart let me make it smaller because you want to see exactly what it looks like and I'm just saying to you uh the monthly chart has improved a lot it's not great but it has improved a lot it's just holding in a rectangle formation basically going sideways so the metals the silver and gold are in play so I suspect that any decent pullback and you can start to see another rally because gold certainly as I always say gold is the fear icon that's where geopolitically that's where big money goes when there's nervousness about the geopolitical situation geopolitical economic but more geopolitical in this particular case we're looking at the dollar the dollar had a really strong move up to 99.42 uh four sessions five sessions ago holding very nicely up 17 ticks at 98.67 so this is what I look I look at the dollar as the American icon of economic I'm not going to say success of economic strength let's just say that internationally and that's where the dollar comes in that's where money seems to flow I'll be doing more of this when I do Larry show later on it's not cost it's not Larry is Larry's time definitely not Larry show there's only one Larry Percevento and he he commands that show I mean he's a he's always a major attraction there's no question about with all his knowledge I love those stories I don't know how he remembers he says um on Tuesday I was Tuesday November the third 1960 oh yeah I remember it we were sitting on the armchair and I don't know how he remembers oh it was uh Joe whatever Smith I yep yep you know I don't know Bravo I don't know how anyone can do that great memory so all right there we go um the dollar is holding okay you are I'll do more of this when I do the currencies and commodities in the next show so we're looking at this trend line look at this major trend line the weekly chart of the I want you to show this I'll do more of it I just want to show you the pattern remember these very big art formations that do they do a beautiful left side right side price time to the plum line matches the plum line right here and that says that by there's a chance that 1.06364 I bet it's changed that was the number I put in the March this is the week of March the 27th 2020 1.0636 that's the level that could be hit the uh euro right now is at 1.09571 she says numbers how do how do you deal with that sir and we're coming down to the chapter wave I usually make this a dashed line and I usually make it pink on the way down and green on the way up school the Chapman wave inside wedge particular way of tracking it target support line on the way down and it says that there's a chance that by the 15th the week of the 15th of April it could be before but by then 1.0636 would be a target never say the dollar has a chance to redo or retest the highs let's do I want you to do high grade copper high grade copper this is very interesting look you've had a cup and another cup it's like a it's like a bifocals right I used to call it on something else not allowed anymore it's a pity because even the person that I called it for would have just loved it before it was an honor but I'm not going to do that but this is a leg D in the weekly chart in high grade copper let's just get out of that because I want to show you this is a peak E at 5.02 I think it is let's see 5.0395 on the on the 7th of March we've pulled back sharply and this is a leg D in the weekly chart and it's done this almost the same I'm going to do this in Larry show because it's done almost the same number of bars to the left side this is what I call tap wave left side right side price tie match we'll talk about later on so it's a legs it's only a leg C in the monthly I don't worry we'll get to it and in the next hour meantime back at the ranch we're looking at us bonds us bonds are down again oh they're up 1130 seconds at 155 and 230 seconds to hit the 200 period moving peak D in the chapter we methodology is where you you lift your foot of the accelerator moment surely hover over you got the the orange light you hover over it because you could turn around objective in the chapter we buy signal to buy mode is to get to at least the peak D that's where other things can happen in this case the other things is we hit 160 this is a continuous contract 160 and let's go to half and right now we're at 155 unbelievable the TLT shows it even better that didn't even make a peak D went to a peak C minus and failed in the dreaded action looks a little more like an inverted V shape pattern and look at this plummets right okay I wanted to finish up with those because we'll do a lot more when I do the next hour most importantly I wanted to show you where to go where to go where to go yeah so cyber I just wanted to go through this hack is the cyber symbol that I look at this is a prime cyber security ETF security I had a question the den hi bezel could you please go over CIBR it is a peak A and in a downward channel since November they're trying to break out of the channel and now back in it what could be an entry price so we're talking about this it's exactly the same pattern as hack I'll go to the cyber I don't have it all notated like I do the hack I'll be back in a moment now is that my are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area 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many rectangles we have had so this is the one minute chart look at the rectangle there i can go look there was a rectangle there a long very long narrow rectangle all the way from the after the spike this morning it traded in a range of about 43.22 to about 43.05 just stuck there for a long long time finally broke down held the 200 period moving average walked the 200 period moving average but couldn't run so it broke down and that became resistance so it's really important in this kind of rectangle formation that there is if there's a significant breakout either way up or down it needs to go sharply above the resistance line this case 42.74 would be and hold above that and then it says aha now the 200 period moving average of 42.80 could be our target all of these techniques i'm mentioning now because this is what we this is what i apply for subscribers to my opening call now we want to go back we were looking at the hack which is the prime cyber security and the c i b r which is a different company it's a first trust nasdaq cyber okay so the patterns are almost the same except this went to peak a pullback great peak a because the stochastic only held above 80 briefly and then pullback sharpies to 65 and now there's been a rally attempt this morning and it's pulling back again there's there's the importance of the 200 period moving average so where would an entry entry price be i'm watching this so closely why on earth has cyber been so horrible um you just got back to heck because i've got this all notated look at this it went to peak c at about 67 97 back in november mid november and it's just plunge since then it's gone down to 50 and this is the cyber area i don't understand of course you've got crown strike with fantastic earnings and it's still way near the low 150 has been the low on the 24th of jan successful dreaded h pattern ran up to almost a 200 period moving average if there is a move in cyber towards the 202 level that 200 period moving average then becomes a magnet remember it broke down from it before so i'm thinking they're the only one at pan pa and w so um see pan pan power altar networks ink cyber security pa and w trading up 53 cents and again like this the 552.38 there's something wrong it's either specific company i don't know what it is but you have such to have the cyber security stocks not leading the charges upside this is the best one it is awful all time high of about 600 it's at 553 it's not a big deal almost all the other ones like cyber cbi this is cyber arc 153 right now has a high in the 200 area i i don't know what's going on so now let me go back your question is when to enter that's why i'm taking a little time here so i'm just going to say to you cyber c i b r and that is this uh nasdaq first trust nasdaq cyber security etf i don't like what i'm seeing because it's not leaving the market it's just kind of hanging in there so i would do this first of all i think you do use options i would take an option on cyber if you can get it said 4899 i think it's going to be retesting the 4850 area which is the 200 p removing average and if it goes under that then i think it makes a generation even takes out and goes towards the 47 level it's so important that even today it can correct its negativity is down 20 cents i'm going to make two suggestions one is you wait and i would prefer to see just a nibble a starting position closer to 4854 i know we're doing 50 cents and the last time i was at 51 something what's the big deal well the big deal is the technicals are really not helping the 90s over the 14 but it's starting to fizzle so i'm going to suggest why don't you look at an april call option if you're really interested in this preferably go in the money a little bit it's a 4902 right now if you can get a 47 and a half i would just start off like that you know exactly what you can lose but you also know that you're getting a really good feeling when the premium comes in that is it's starting to work it's a cheaper way of doing it less expensive let's say not cheaper but less expensive way but i can't if today of all days it can't actually hold the gain of 49 66 the high and it's still much lower all i can say is the best thing is either get to the option to the call option for april preferably in the money so i wouldn't risk just throwing away money is at 50 i don't even know if it'll hold there if it even hits it once or twice it doesn't look like it has the strength so that's what i'm talking about so that's what i'm saying it's not it's i've tried my best to keep it in our for subscribers in our focus the whole area it's something's wrong in this environment you think cyber security starts i mean they should be on fine they should be way at the highs and they're not so but i would like to have a position because i think at some point they're going to become in favor but what you get the hack you get in that 55 53 right now and suddenly it starts to fail holding 53 and goes back to the i know this is not a great-looking chart so that's all i'm saying i'm down i'm a little nervous about giving you a full full-throated yes start your positions i'd say i don't know but if you're really interested you could buy an option called it might be the best way okay next question is tlt um yeah tlt just this is saying rates are going higher and um if you let me do this if you're looking at the t and x dot x and the fed oh the question is why is the fed reluctant to raise rates they talked about it enough and my answer to that is it's a two-fold answer and the answer is based on the reality of the stock market it's really tough for them to do that based on the um on what they've been saying for this amount of time they're really obligated to do something so i think it's just like quarter points today they have to be worried about inflation i mean inflation has been here for a while now it's really accelerating and it doesn't just go away and i don't see it going away remember my my theory here is that if we lost if this war this war goes on for three weeks three to four weeks it just it can't just stop on a dime the commitment on every side now the other thing i want to mention is the the bill that's just about to be passed what 2700 pages something nobody's hardly anybody's read it but you remember my rule of thumb the fine print in any bill eventually becomes the large print so all the little things all the little boondoggles all the little stuff that was thrown in there all those favors to other people those become prime at some point later on and all the big headlines just fades away can we afford to do a trillion one point one one and a half trillion i'll leave it as a hanging question i'll be back in a moment and we'll wrap up this action and then we're going to go to the next hour which i'm actually looking forward to very much because i'm going to go through coffee um feeder cattle this all sorts of things out practically we haven't looked 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formation could last a lot longer than your patience this is from about just before 10 this morning it's stuck in a tiny rate just broke above it but you're ready to see 42 74 42 75 and then that 42 78 200 premovement average in the one minute e-mini chart so far the green line says it's in a buy mode and it can hold that way for a while we'll see what happens there okay real quickly and then some of the follow-through I'll do during Larry show so the TNX is running up very nicely we'll see if it's going to get into the 2.1 area sometime in March that's going to be a big deal so yes the question Neo GT last night you sent a thing Neo I've been negative on Neo for a long time made a high of 66.91 back in January I think it was 2021 electric cars vehicles I think this is Chinese and it goes from 66.99 to today's of 16.92 and the other one you were talking about is uh it was Neo and oh where did I write it right right right right right right right right right right mm-hmm oh JD JD this is also JD this is in the commerce area JD JD calm what is it called JD.com yeah JD.com also I believe Chinese look at that smashes down side and I've been talking about being negative the FXI I don't know why we didn't even short it I'd be negative for ages and ages and ages and he has FXI going from 54.33 this is the China big caps fun February of 2021 and 54 today 29 this is a fun folks this is not this is China so okay that was that that that I got just quickly before we wrap up um yeah oh and the Boston area remember I said back in November I think I said if there is a storm a big snow storm on any particular day my experience tells me that that gets repeated throughout the season but the majority of storms come on that day what has been the weekend this weekend with Saturday night if you get another storm I'll be back and hopefully do it I'll be doing the hour not very pessimistic show I'm doing the hour the very day we go from a whole bunch of commodities uh what's the spot your price it doesn't mean for these to get up to 85