 Hi, my name is Liam Rowe currency trader and trading coach at trading 180.com and welcome to this week's supply and demand Forex and gold fundamental and technical analysis if you're new a very warm welcome to you And if you're returning a weekly warm welcome to you And if you find the analysis that I do every week useful please don't forget to like subscribe and Share as it's a free way to support the channel and it gets the quality content out to Traders that really would benefit from this type of analysis. So let's get into the week ahead on trading economics and zoom in a little bit and This week the Fed and the Reserve Bank of Australia will be releasing policy meeting minutes while central banks in China and Africa Set to meet to set interest rates. So we're looking at the Federal Reserve and the RBA For For monetary guidance, I guess so what they're going to do with regards to interest rates and interest rate and monetary policy Also flash PMI surveys for the US UK Eurozone, Japan and Australia were given insight About the state of the global economy other important releases include the US building permits and housing starts Canada and the UK Inflation data that would be important and retail trade Japan And Eurozone first quarter GDP growth rates that definitely be important for Japan and especially Europe all eyes will be on that China industrial production and Australia employment figures so a very busy week depending on the currency pairs That you are looking to trade. So now let's get into the technicals and some fundamentals as well starting off as we usually do on the dollar index to DXY and The dollar is suffering a bit and I say suffering in in the sense that it's you know being being sold off Which is actually positive for the for the Federal Reserve in a currency war, which we're pretty much in This competitive devaluations the only problem that the Federal Reserve have is is inflation Right and I say the only problem they have a number of problems But they have them they have inflation problems and also a GDP in jobs problem But recently the Fed officials have six reasons to bet inflation spike will pass and why is that really important? It's because if inflation doesn't if inflation Really gets out of hand then they're going to be forced to act and raise interest rates Which is basically what they don't want to do because if they raise interest rates too soon Then it really hurt it can hurt the economy and the economy at the moment We had a massive jobs miss. I think it was last week of the week before So the Fed are very cautious We're wanting to raise rates and borrowing costs because it could really hurt the economy before it really gets going So they're in a bit of a conundrum at the moment and the Federal Reserve are really kind of talking down the the inflation Numbers, you know, they're looking for an average inflation target of two percent Which at the moment It looks like it might be going a lot higher than that But it says much is at stake the feds new policy framework approved last August pledges more patience in viewing inflation Now it aims for an average of two percent over time including some overshooting for past misses and want to achieve more inclusive employment That aids lower-income workers and minorities so Again, they're talking down the expectation the word. I think the word they're using is is is not trans Transitory is I think that's what it's what it's known as and basically what they're saying is is that It's not it's not transitioning to high inflation It's just a little bit of a spike a little bit of a blip and it will come down Soon and the average will work out. So there's no need to look to even high crates. So, yeah, they're in a bit of a They're being a bit of a conundrum at the moment So the the general consensus actually is to continue to you know, short the dollar. So With the fundamentals at play what you're looking to do is look for Selling opportunities and confluences I guess using the dollar index and the dollar index is just a measure of dollar strength against the basket of currencies like the euro the yen and the pound and So what you're looking for pretty much is is a pullback to potential supply zones And if it starts to sell off there, then you're looking for sell trades on the dollar yen dollar Swiss For example, if there is some good news and positive news around the the US dollar potentially, you know growing GDP jobs numbers, etc Then you this could actually be a decent area to look for some long trades on the dollar But I think the general consensus is for a a weaker dollar until the data supports the the the buy narrative moving on to the dollar yen and the dollar yen at the moment is Again in a bit of a predicament the yen isn't necessarily the best pair to buy in a risk on environment And the risk on environment means that the investors looking for a higher return on their investment The Japanese yen is really in the minus zero point one meaning that it's going to cost you minus zero point one percent or zero point one percent to keep your money in the bank so And we've you know the the dollar Not doing so well. You probably may see a bit of a range start to come into play so at the moment this is Quite a difficult pair to trade When it comes to looking to buy or sell obviously that would I say obviously but the tint of my my my my bias I guess would be to Maybe some dollar upside, but it's it's a bit too difficult to kind of tell fundamentally So for me, I'm personally staying up But if you do want to get you know long or short then I would say this is probably the time now to get look for Short trades or just a bit higher right here Probably delete that upper supply zone. I would say that's probably where the best zone is and Probably down here as we can see if prices do break through that demand zone the 108 is probably a decent buy If you're looking to buy the dollar against the yen moving on to the dollar at Swiss dollar Swiss We again got some more selling the Swiss Frank again just similar to the Yen is a risk is a safe haven currency meaning that the Swiss Frank tends to do well in a risk off Environment as money will flow tend to flow into the the the Swiss Frank But with a an interest rate of 0.7 minus 0.75 It's the worst out of all the the the major the major economies that we trade. So Personally, I wouldn't necessarily even look to trade this pair again not financial advice You can do what you want to do, but I'm just letting you know, you know what where my where my stance on that is But it's there are easier trades out there. So If you do want to get long on this, this is a decent opportunity to get long Not the best demand zone daily demand zone in the world. There's a few more things I would like to see before I would look to ever get long on the on the dollar Swiss And Again, if you do want to continue getting short and really kind of ride this recent downward trend from You know the beginning of April then you're looking at prices moving back up to this You know just above this 91 cent area and then looking for short trades again in conjunction with the dollar index Setoffs looking at the dollar CAD and dollar CAD. This has been You know the other CAD being actually quite quite strong with especially with the Bank of Canada looking to taper And remove support when I say remove support. They're basically Not looking to you know quantitative ease print money, etc. And devalue their currency You're pretty much seeing the the effect of of that So again the Bank of Canada potentially looking to raise rates, you know within the next, you know two years The market is pricing that in ahead of time. So For me, it's shorts all the way for now any pullbacks to this supply zone will be a decent short If you are looking to get long on this currency pair, you really want to see proof of value and prices, you know Basically move to the upside to prove that there is you know The dollar is a potential bargain down here then a pullback into that demand zone before looking at any kind of long trades Moving on to the New Zealand dollar and New Zealand dollar. I think New Zealand is is is a trade There's a currency that is a buy and prices did come down to its nice demand zone last week And this was a decent buy So the New Zealand dollar doing well and the risk on the environment the dollar US dollar not doing so well So so yeah, this was this was always a potential buy And if prices do come down again, I would say this level's probably been used several times So you probably want to wait for prices to come down to this zone before looking at any kind of long trades If you get the opportunity if you want to get short So there's a change in in sentiment on the US dollar or even the New Zealand dollar and I do think this area this 70 0.73 for Level is a really decent zone to get short technically, but I don't really like this pair for a For a sell trade if my bias is to the to the to the upside as far as a buy on the New Zealand dollar Moving on to the pound dollar and the pound has been going from strength to strength, especially since last week's US jobs miss we saw pretty much prices move to the upside as to be expected bit of a pullback And then you know we're looking at more potential upsides So At the moment again looking at the fundamentals the UK economy picked up momentum in March towards the end of the lockdown So the UK economy gained momentum in March as Britain's geared up for the lifting of Coronavirus restrictions and gross domestic products rose to a stronger than expected 2.1 percent Following a revised 0.7 increase in February. So Again, nothing but positive news around the the pound. There is a bit of a scare though With regards to the Indian variant of the coronavirus, I think four people five people have passed away due to In in the UK, so it's found that very it's found this way to the UK shores So that could have an effect really on the pound if it starts to get out of hand But let's see because Boris Johnson our Prime Minister will make, you know certain choices regarding the reopening of the economy if if you know, it starts to potentially affect The UK then you could see a potential selling opportunity But if that's so then you're looking for short trades here, but I think overall It's it's really buy trades For the foreseeable future as long as the data supports the narrative moving on to the dollar Euro dollar and the euro dollar. So there was a really nice trade setup around here intraday CPR Demand zone set up that I shared with the guys in the trading group And it really worked out well for for anyone who took those trades, but some from a daily supply and demand zone perspective We really I would say probably that's where the supply zone is There wasn't really an opportunity in this prices came down to this area here before looking at long trades the general consensus is for the Euro dollar to reach around the one to five area So we've definitely got about three three hundred fifty pips to the upside of prices do continue to you know Get to to kind of rise and the euro area to kind of support that narrative European economic outlook upgraded on fiscal fund and Vaccines to the euro economy will grow more quickly this year than previously forecasted as The region's vaccination program campaign story gathers speed Fiscal support is rolled out and a strong global rebound helps exports. So a Lot of the things that I I teach in the private members group And things that we look for, you know to help really kind of Make our trading decisions and our bias. So I've been saying for a week or two now to kind of get long on The on the euro dollar you're seeing that really kind of play out So any pullbacks to levels of you know daily demand are going to be really kind of buying opportunities But for now if you do want to get short on it on the euro dollar, you may want to wait for potential move You know for the problem now Maybe a bit higher before looking at short trades if the euro GDP does disappoint Then that could actually be an opportunity to actually buy the US dollar versus the euro or another currency's You know sell the euro against another currency or short the euro against another currency Euro yen and I just haven't been able to get into this trade. I really wanted to get involved Down here, but there's really been No, no setups per se for me to kind of get involved in this and prices have really moved like about 300 pips so I've got to be patient patience is you know Something that we need in in trading. So looking for potential pullback. I do like this zone here This demand zone between this one three one point four one and it's one three zero point nine eight Zone so there are demand zones here as well Technically you do have a demand zone right there as well I prefer price to pull back a bit more deeper pullback better bargain price and within this zone I think that's nice. We've also got bit of Confluence where we've got Some resistance here in support So there's some traders that trade support resistance that will add to the demand equation around here Hopefully, I do think that pullback is really nice for a potential buy Especially with the the euro on the up and up and the yen in fact struggling with the virus I recently moving on to the Aussie dollar and the Aussie dollar We've got let me just move this here. I think the Really the play is again more Aussie dollar upside So when prices came back down into this demand zone this week again, you saw lots of buying going on So I think more upside potential on the Aussie dollar, especially with the Australian dollar I Guess strengthening in the risk on environment. You've got commodity currencies I say commodity sorry like iron ore copper oil making, you know highs and stuff like that. So Very bullish risk on environment out of the two My bias would be to an Australian for an Australian dollar long But this the this is a decent area to get short if again There is a narrative change around the US dollar and also as well This this higher zone would be really nice for a potential short technically, but not necessarily fundamentally Moving on to the Aussie yen and Aussie yen just keeps going from strength to strengthen the risk on environment Or you what you should see is basically what's been happening now, right? We've been basically talking about this for the past six months I Said last year October November times to get long on the Aussie Yen haven't changed that bias and you're pretty much seeing what's been going on With the Australian dollar and the Japanese yen So this has been driven fundamentally prices not really driven technically unless it's really kind of short-term You know intraday, which is basically just manipulations and liquidity hunting. So again a pullback into a nice demand zone from the From a yen first rate from an Australian dollar perspective making higher highs higher lows Higher high high low. This is a bargain area and then prices came back in looking for potential long trade I do want prices to pull back a bit more before looking at getting long or if prices can pull back into this Zone here this 83 area and just below that will be even better for a long trade But let's see what happens If the narrative does change so for example if there is more risk of let's say for example an outbreak virus outbreak or the Australian dollar has a bit of a miss when it comes to the Their jobs, you know report then there could be a decent opportunity to look for potential short trades Once I change that to supply Yeah so maybe a short trade right now of as prices go up into this zone here before looking at getting short and finally looking at gold and gold has been again a bit of a Tough one if you are looking to short the dollar then the alternative rather than shorting Any kind of a currency pairs as far as you know shorting dollar Swiss dollar, you know dollar CAD etc Then you would probably look for buying gold right the only problem is is gold is that? is is the fact that Inflation is is driving Gold but we're in a risk on the environment So in a risk on environment where stock market is making you know new highs and again Maybe just pulling back a little bit, but generally the consensus is for you know more highs in the For the for the stock market you also have Commodities really making new highs Gold for me is a bit of a bit of a tough buy if you are buying it It'd be purely based off of dollar weakness and and inflation concerns, so Any kind of a pullbacks to a decent zone maybe there or if price is making new high Then this would become a nice demand zone And are you looking for a pullback into that zone before looking at getting long on potential inflation concerns and dollar weakness? but if you are looking for a potential Short trade and you see some dollar strength maybe some sort of jobs Number which is really good and and GDP figures Then you could look for potential some short trades in and around this area here But for now, I don't think it's necessarily the best buy in the world fundamentally But everyone has their you know their their bias on the US dollar And I would probably say if you are getting short on the dollar then the bias really should be you know With regards to gold and silver to you know the the upside I would say is is really the point of the path of least resistance So any pullbacks to demand zones is where you probably want to look for any kind of a long trade Again, not financial advice. Please do your own research and that brings us to the end of this week's analysis Thanks for the comments as well. By the way, keep them up again Don't forget to like subscribe and share and I will speak to you all soon Hope you have a great trading week and take care