 Hi, everyone, this is Mitch Schneider, chief strategist of MarketGauge.com. It is the end of the trading day, June 12th in the U.S. And we're going to have a look at some of the futures in anticipation of a pretty heavy duty week in terms of ECHO stats. Starting in the morning, we're all already trading and we're waking up to the CPI numbers, PPI numbers, and then, of course, we've got the good old FOMC. We also have retail sales this week. And in terms of the overall macro of the U.S. market, people are talking about the bull market in the spiders. And, of course, a 20% up is some measurement that some use, not necessarily us. And we still have issues, of course, with the retail sector, the transportation sector doing better, but still not necessarily as lofty as what we're seeing in tech, for sure. And then, of course, we also have the small cap. So, and I think that something you have to keep in your mind is a backdrop. Will these numbers get those inside sectors going? But let's take a look at gold. So this is the futures contract of August now. So we've rolled over. And it's so clear that this 1950 is just hugely supportive at this point. And depending on what kind of chart you look at, some people actually talked about a head and shoulders top. You don't see it so much and that's why I love the futures market. You're not seeing it so much here. What you're really basically seeing is the reversal and the follow through testing the support. So I think that makes it pretty simple for tomorrow. In our momentum indicators, the momentum has gone down, of course, with the price, but it's still not necessarily as weak as it could be. And if it gets much weaker and the price gets much lower, then I would even start looking more for a mean reversion. But for right now, just looking strictly at these numbers here, we can see if I just blow this up a little bit and I like to use closing prices very often, that 1980 level is really your resistance. We wake up tomorrow and CPI is a surprise and inflation looks like it's going to come back, which personally I think it will, but not just yet. Then 1980 will be the number. If it gets through that, I would certainly be a buyer of gold looking maybe for a 10 to $20 pop. On the reverse, if it comes in under, let's say this 1970 level tomorrow, we've closed just about around there, then I would be looking not only for 1960, a $10 drop, but possibly, especially if CPI is showing a cooling inflation, then under 1950, I think we could probably see whatever longs are left in the gold market at these levels right now sell into it. And then of course, we would take a look at our next area of support, which would be closer to 1900. Personally, we are flat gold. We are flat miners. When I say personally, I mean us at market gauge. And I am always looking for a free entry at this point, but at right now, I think being aside, except for scouting is probably the smartest thing to do. Let's move over to the oil market because that also took a very weak turn today, but will that sustain? So we're looking here at the July contract of WTI oil. And once again, we had talked a lot about this 50 day moving average and how we haven't been able to get through. And clearly that is the situation right here. And we broke down under pretty good support under that $70 a barrel level just today with Goldman Sachs doing a downgrade. I don't really care very much about analysts downgrades or upgrades because I believe that they're looking at very different type of parameters than I'm looking at because I'm looking mainly at fundamentals and of supply demand number one, and number two of what the technical analysis is. So it's pretty clear in terms of technical analysis. If you go back to these levels back here, which was in March, and you compare it to the two lows that we just had here and here, then that kind of tells you that the $67 barrel is important. And once again, from a pure technical standpoint, if CPI comes in weaker and this perfects the oil market negatively, borcellos come in and we break down under $67 a barrel, of course, then we'll be back looking pretty quickly at that 64. If 64 does not break down and it holds and stops to turn back, then that's a good solid bottom. But for now, 67 is gonna be my pivotal area. To the downside, $70 a barrel if things look different to the upside. Longer term projection on oil is I wouldn't get too complacent on the negative oil, not just pick a geopolitics, but we're having some supply chain issues really basically on both sides of the border here in the US and of course in Canada. And the other thing too is with all this demand coming back in the transportation sector, cruise lines for example, rally a tremendous amount today about 15%, the more demand and the more comfortable people are feeling about rates may have peaked, inflation may have peaked, then the more that we will start to see a demand in the oil market. So again, 67 pivotal, 70 over bullish, under 67 we're looking at 64. Let's move now down to the next area of course which is another X factor and that would be the dollar and the dollar pairs. So we've talked about the dollar, this is the continuous contract of the dollar. At that 104.20, if you recall, we said above was bullish, below was bearish. And so we have actually seen a little bit of selling coming in based on that 104.20 level not being able to clear. And again, that's why I like closing levels sometimes they're very important. You can see that 104.21. Now, well let's continue to use that. We can even lower it a little bit, we can say 104. Dollar gets back through 104 for whatever reason whether it's the Fed doesn't pause and decides to raise rates or we have more hawkish talk coming out of Europe as Lagarde actually sounded a little more dovish today or whatever reason it is. Right now what we're seeing is 104 is going to be my new pivotal number and over 104 we're going to have a stronger dollar. And we'll still have to be taking a look at that 200 day moving average up here at around 105.40 to 105.50. However, we mentioned 103 as the next goal to the downside and we haven't gotten there yet. So 103 is going to be an area that we'll look at for support if it continues to decline. And of course, if it continues to decline under 103 for whatever reason, then we would have to be looking not only at the 50 day moving average at 102.50, but then we're going to start to look at some of these other areas that we really formed a base from in April and early May and that's between 101 and 102. So it's good for you to look at the weekly videos that I do because there's a consistency in that I'm picking up from levels the week before and looking at levels this week. And like I said, 104.20 would be one. Maybe we can lower it to 104. And then under these current levels here at 103.50, we're going to be looking at around that 103 next. And now let's take a look at some of the pairs to the dollar, particularly looking at the euro and the yen. So remember that when we're looking at these charts, these pair currency charts, the one instrument that it starts was the one that we're comparing to the other instrument. So in this case, this is measuring how the euro is doing versus the dollar. And of course, with the recent dollar strength, the euro broke down underneath this 50-day moving average. Remember the 50 is the thin line, the 200 is the thicker line, but it's popped back a little bit. So again, we're in some kind of an interesting trading range and it's really pretty tight. I would say under 1.07 negative, that would be negative for the euro, stronger for the dollar, above 108 positive, positive for the euro, negative for the dollar. And then we can start looking at what happens here at the 50-day moving average, which, since it's broken down from with this little bit of a bear flag, has not been able to get through. From a little bit of a longer-term perspective here, we had so many tops up here at around this 111. I would think that at this point now with so much talk of bricks, this would definitely be worthwhile keeping an eye on and seeing if indeed the euro does start to get stronger through that 1.08 and onward from there. Well, the bar chart system is not allowing me to look at the yen as the lead. Instead, we have to look now at the dollar versus the yen. So again, we're talking about a reverse, what the dollar is going to do versus the yen. And we've talked a lot about that 140 level in that if the dollar gets through that 140, then that would be more negative for the yen. And at the same token, of course, if we get down underneath, particularly this 200-day moving average, but even starting at around 138, then we know that the yen is going to get stronger versus the dollar. So at this point, we're still so stuck in the middle. And if I take that same ability to look at a bunch of closing prices, where we've had a lot of congestion, it's really just shy of that 140 level, really looking more like at 139.67. So let's call that our nearest term pivotal point, 139.67. If you want to trade the pairs and the dollar gets through that, obviously that would be negative for the yen. And of course, if we cannot get through that 139.67, then most likely it means that the dollar will decline back to those 103 levels we just talked about, and that would be more bullish for the yen. And the final thing I want to show you is since there's such an important USDA report coming out this week, is corn futures, particularly as we've been looking at them over the last couple of weeks. And this here is what you're looking at is the dry conditions for US corn, because on Thursday, there will be a drought report. Now this is extremely important in that you can see that 45% of the corn production in the US is located in drought areas. And so this is obviously always a wild card when it comes to crops, but I think it's a good lead in for us to be taking a look at the actual corn futures chart. Okay, so we've been looking at this July corn chart and we talked about that it had to clear the 50. It certainly did last week. It's been up and down around the 50, so it hasn't exactly really gotten any follow-through until today. So that tells me now that this is looking more like a bit of an inverted head and shoulders bottom. And if we're looking at some kind of a measurement, if we take, let's say, rounding off from 550 to $650 move, that projects, based on what we're seeing today, the potential of this to get up to 645 or 650. And certainly that drought report can really be the catalyst that puts it up there. So for right now, if you're interested in trading corn futures, again, if we take a look at levels where there's been congestion based on a closing basis, we're looking at around 607, 607.50. But since we broke out of that today, let's move that up just a little bit now and say that as long as this holds somewhere around 615, you can be a very low-risk buyer at that 615 level or around the 615 level. And if it continues to get through the highs of today, which would be closer to 623 in change, then I would think that it would be a good long position with some potential selling coming in as we get closer to the 640 or the 650 level. On the flip side, if we fail these levels today, then I would be wanting to see a breakdown underneath that 607 level. And then underneath that 607, then I would consider this to be a bit of a failure and most likely move back down to 580. So basically that's it. The market is really, really hanging in the balance in terms of the futures market while the equities continue to be supreme. But on the other hand, there are factors to be looking at around the country, starting with the Canadian fires affecting supply chain, what's happening here with potential strikes on the west coast, the collapse of I-95 on the east coast, which is a major north to south highway. And then of course, drought areas that we're seeing. And then on top of that, obviously the ongoing geopolitical situations we have with social unrest throughout the world with always the possibility of Russia poking its head out or China poking its head out. And that's what makes these futures markets so good. They are dollar related to a degree, but they also right now show the delicate situation that we have with supply chain. Okay, that's it for now. Thanks so much for watching. You all have a great day. I'll see you next week. Bye.