 Welcome to the weather forecast for the week beginning Wednesday, September 22nd, 2021. I'm Chief Meteorologist John Ennsworth for Longmont Public Media. Our first phase of the new season fall will be Tuesday, September 28th in the early morning hours, a little less than half illuminated as you look at it. The first day of fall is happening as I record on Wednesday, September 22nd at 1.20pm mountain time. Our drought conditions are slowly getting worse. Taking a look at last week to this week now that we have data, take a look at the plains as we go forward. Definitely abnormally dry conditions are beginning to show up. This is harvest time or approaching harvest time, so maybe it's not as bad for agriculture as it would be earlier in the year. Naturally areas out here to look at the plains have been very dry and now short term drought is settling in there. To make that point even better, take a look at the precipitation over the last week and we had trace amounts in many places, nothing other. We had at one front earlier in the week that did put down some showers south of Denver in the Palmer Divide in Colorado Springs and up in the northern mountains, but that's been it. So our weather scenario right now is a ridge in the west, oh yeah, I'm a broken record, and a trough in the east and this little low shortwave trough approaching on Wednesday. As we go to Thursday, it's kind of reconnecting with the jet stream, bringing in a cold front to cool us down, but ridge on the west, trough on the east moving out. So with moisture, precipitable water, there is moisture down here in the desert southwest, but a belt of dryness and dryness behind this cold front predominant over the region. Good news on the smoke, colder weather and light winds for a while over on the west coast has really diminished fire activity and we are breathing clear, this is smoke at all levels and then going to surface it's pretty much the same, just not a lot of smoke around. I will check to see if this is an initialization problem, maybe they are missing some of the smoke over here. They had to restart the model, but I don't know. Right now it's been very clear outside. Because of the low moisture and high pressure ridge overhead or nearby, we have no chance of convection at all, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, nothing to see there. Here is our cold front coming in at the end of the week, in the range of normal from 76 to 71. So now we are supposed to be in the 70s and we are going to be in the 80s for much of the next week. So still above normal, maybe we are done with 90s, I don't know. But still above normal temperatures and bone dry until right about the end of the month where there is a chance, not all of the ensemble models show it, but there is a chance of some precipitation coming in. So the next notable thing is Monday noon, the ridge really establishes itself overhead strong, that ridge. So let's put this in motion to watch the ridge do its thing. So there is the ridge, here comes our short way for the end of the week, kicking that cold front down, kind of zips up north and away, and the ridge rebuilds in the west from Saturday into Sunday, and then Monday we have this trough down south of us, but that doesn't matter for us, we are under the ridge. By 28th and 29th end of the month we do see this trough coming in, it should cool us down, and this is what may bring us a chance of showers to the end of next week. Okay, temperatures, here comes the cool air moving off, and the ridge re-establishing the heat in the west, our next short way for the end of the week comes down, puts cold air briefly down, the eastern plains are off, then we just have heat, and more heat into Sunday, and like that. So the moisture is not available, here goes the cold front sweeping down, so little stuff in the northern Rockies, we are in this dry belt right through here for Friday and Saturday, and then on into Sunday, and let's see what happens mid-week with the moisture. You do see some tropical stuff down in the southwest, monsoonal like stuff, here comes the front for a Tuesday and a Wednesday, and some good pooling of moisture along yet, a surge of tropical moisture up the plains, we have moisture briefly and then super dry air comes in at the end of next week. For precipitation, I'm not going to play much of this, it's just dry, it's nothing to see, sorry. And to put an exclamation point on it, over the next five days the GFS has nothing falling statewide, over the next ten days it'll be spots, oh my goodness, I don't know if I've ever seen such a dry forecast. So I feel justified in bouncing us between the 70s and the 80s, for the next week was zero percent chance of rain, partly cloudy to sunny skies throughout. Nothing else in the tropics to talk about either, so that's it for local news and frequent weather updates, maybe not too frequent this week because the story isn't going to change much, check out the Longmont Leader, LongmontLeader.com, this has been Chief New Yorker's John Insworth, keep plucking up.