 When I get up to speak these days, the first question they ask is, how old are you? How old am I? And I want to answer that question first, then I'll go on. I am one year younger than Dr. Helley of the studio. You may laugh, but Dr. DeSigneau has the yearly record of the most seminars attended here by Longshot. And she believes that, you know, live like you die tomorrow, learn like you live forever. And she's living forever. And so now the other thing is, so many of us have seen each other not recently, so there's a lot of talk. But I know you want to talk more. And we've arranged a merry-end for the SSD people and whoever else would like to come. So you can, after the seminar, we can talk with each other. Now, the speaker, his brief bio-day is there. I want to add just a couple of things. Back in the 1950s, when I was in grad school, I had a classmate by the name of Uri Uro Hayami. Many of you will remember, I think, Uri Uro. And one thing I discovered about Hayami was he not only was smarter than me, but he could beat me a tennis. And so when I came to Uri, one of the first things I did is persuaded Dr. Hayami to come and stay here and start the program. You know, he was in and out for years in the so-called Hayami Village Study. It was one of the classics that you could buy in a book store. So then one of the nice things that happened, of course, is Dr. Hayami's son-in-law, our speaker, came to Uri for, I think, 2006 to 2012. And the other important thing I would say about Kay, other than the fact he's also smarter than me, is that his major interest is number one. He's spending time in Africa, I think, in Uganda. What? Tanzania, trying to help in the transition of technology that will help Africa. And the second thing is his interest in water management. And I think one of the real problems we have today is water management. The future of rice, whether in Asia or so forth, depends upon how well we either manage or mismanage our water. And I emphasize that because this is an area of research that he's interested in that I think is extremely important. Now, having said all that, I guess Kay, I'll let you talk. I almost forgot. That's one of my problems. I wanted to just point out the list of the left side of the people that were involved in the study. And I'm not going to name them all, but if you look at the left side, these are the people who say the word. And the first person on that list is Violi Korlova. Is she here? Yeah, Violi is over there. Okay. She's the first person I heard back in 1966. And the second one I want to point out is Faye. Faye has been with the study from the beginning to the end. I don't know how old she was when we heard her. She's still around doing the village level stuff and so forth. And the final person I want to mention, of course, is the person that we wouldn't even have the seminar today if it wasn't for Paimoia. Now, think about this. Keeping records in the early days, in the 60s and so forth, it's difficult to keep the records and so forth. It's easy now. You've got all this storage equipment. So the people that did the records, there's a miracle that we were able to keep the firm level records in the 60s and carry it on and so forth. So that's one of the outstanding things I think I can say that this is the longest-running firm survey of rice probably anywhere in the world. So I think with that, now I can let you talk. Thank you very much, Mr. Handi. It's my great pleasure to come back early for the first day seminar standing on this stage again. After my exit seminar about three years ago. This time, well, because I'm so happy that I could not help wearing eerie polo shirts today because I hope I still look like an internal person. Well, the topic of the title of today's seminar is changes in rice farming in the Philippines. This is an insight from the five decades of the loop survey. As Handi explained, this is one of the precious assets of Giri started in 1966. But what is the loop? Let me explain the verus of Giri. The survey was initiated in 1966 by the agriculture engineering department, two Johnson, one and Lloyd Johnson of the head and another Johnson of the families. And that was good timing because that was on the eve of the Green Revolution. The IR8 was released in 1966. And therefore, with this data set, you can observe the change from traditional farming to the modern farming up to now. This data set covers detailed records of the production systems in both wheat and rice, as well as household characteristics of social science analysis. The survey was conducted every four to five years until 2001 and 2012 round. In total, we have 23 rounds of farming. This is one of the longest continuous survey of rice farming and rice farm families in existence. And based on this data set, 33 publications, books, reports, and journal papers have been produced. Well, Handi already showed this. And why did this school do it? Because look at the map. The survey fields are observed specific kilometers along the loop of the national highway. That's why it's called the loop. And another feature is that we have done the survey of the same field for over 50 years. Because even when the operator changes, we keep track of the current operator and track them correctly. Therefore, it has a feature of the prop level panel. Well, to understand how unique the loop survey is, I would like to show how I would like to place the loop survey in the other kind of long-term survey. The one maybe most famous at theory is this one. Lothamastet Experiment Station that was started in mid-19th century. And another famous one is in the Asian version of this one is Eridong Time Experiment, started in 1968. But those two are the data from experimental fields, not from the real farm. The one dealing with the real farmer and real farming activity is the one done by, started by UP. But really, unfortunately, Lothamastet has eaten the original questionnaire. So now it's in heaven. Forget about it. It cannot be over there. Another famous and unique data, this is very intensive data collection. Very baby-based consumption data for 10 years. But it's not so old, but also it's pretty, there is an interval between the ladies here. Another one, Bangladesh panel, started by Dr. Moaba Fosen, former SSD head. This is also represented in good data, but not so old. The first year is 1987. This one is the one Randy mentioned. It's a very old data set, started in 1977. It's a target field ongoing. But the drawback of this data, this is very comprehensive accumulation of household characteristics, but one drawback is the data comes from just one page. So it's very difficult to say this is the representative picture of the field. On the other hand, looks are based on the oldest, even before the Green Revolution, ongoing and it covers major rice growing. Well, just saying 50 years, maybe it's difficult to imagine how long 50 years is. So I just want to show the picture. Here is Randy, like this. Maybe actually this picture is newer than 50 years ago. So Randy must look much younger than this at the onset of the beginning. And pie, look at this action. Actually this one is newer than 50 years ago. Then myself, they don't exist. Okay, I was born here after the study started. I think I was exactly like this in 1967. Well, this is the outline of the presentation. Anyway, so we cover almost all the aspects of the rice farm. The first changes in yield and volume. Before going to the first, let me point out two important events that are related to the Green Revolution. First is irrigation development. Upper Pampanga River, integrated irrigation system started its population in 1975. Then, propping intensity. Propping intensity is an index which measures how many times you cultivate your parcel in a year. So if you cultivate dry and wet, propping intensity is two. We say this introduction, propping intensity jumped up to around 1.5. So about half of the farmers started cultivation in dry season. Then in the 90s, the loaded home became available, became popular among the farmers. So even the area where gravity irrigation system is not available, they started irrigation and they started double cropping. Then again, this is the second jump, and now the crop intensity index is as high as about 1.8. So nowadays double cropping is standard in the central region. Another important event is the land reform. It started initially in 1963, and then the stronger version of that land reform started in 1972. So initially, in the first round, most of the farmers, the shiitainan, this does one with the proportion of the shiitainan, and just few owners, they pay rent to about one third of the crop, or half of the crop to the land owners. But after the land reform, shiitainan capri went down and then owner, operator, and also this order increased. Nowadays, in the last round of the survey, most of the, about more than half of the farmers are owner, operator. Not owner, they are least for them. Only minimal farmers are just being shared in. That's the current issue of energy structure of the central zone. Okay, now let's move to the main point. Here it grows over the 50 decades. Here, horizontal axis is the round of the survey, horizontal axis measures tons per hectare per year. And one important finding is that yield has more than doubled over 50 years, from around two tons per hectare to around four to five tons per hectare. Interesting thing is, future is over the last decade. Dry season yields have been continuously increasing up to six tons per hectare in the last line. And the last round high yield, the adoption of hybrid seed is slightly contributing to this high yield. But on the other hand, look at the wet season yield. It has been plateaued at around four tons per hectare in the last decade. So the gap has since been increasing between dry and wet. And according to the farmers, the main reason for the low yield in wet season is flood. This is quite recent event, because if you go back to the old article, for example, the article by S.P. Giro and O.S. Uta in 1999, it says that paddy fields in Central Aupong are largely free from floods during the wet season, but not anymore. I'd like to make one important remark on the flood in Central Aupong. This is man-made disaster in Central Aupong. Why am I saying man-made disaster? Because look at, okay, these are some sort of extreme examples. Here, this farmer, this farm plot is converted to pottery farm, and then it blocks the water flow, and now half of his plot is flooded in every wet season. So he cannot grow right here. Another example, these are two different farmers. This farmer and this farmer have the same problem. National highway is constructed on the side of their farm fields in Maitreya, and that blocks the water flow. And this farmer, he just gave up wet season commutation, because it is too wet. This farmer, he can still grow rice, but yield is quite low. That's why, and more or less, these three are the extreme case, but there are many, many minor problems for the singularity. So, plot in Central Aupong is very location-specific disaster, and also it's different from area-wide flooding, maybe like India or Bangladesh or other countries. That is, I think, we have to remember. Okay, related to yield growth, I want to talk about how it is achieved through the diffusion of the modern varieties. This graph, the left one is wet season, right one is dry season, and it shows the proportion of the different generations of modern varieties. Blue area is traditional varieties. Orange, MB1. MB1 is first generation modern varieties, such as IR8 or C4. MB2 is the second generation. You can see this for definition. The feature trait of those varieties are short-duration, test-and-release-release. And MB3, MB2, 2-plus grain quality. MB4 is MB3 plus solid-acid environment. And from these figures, we can observe two important features. First, the switching from new, sorry, this one, 2. Switching to newer modern varieties is very strong. Look at the change from one generation to another generation. Just usually within four years, more than 70 to 80% could switch from to newer varieties. The exception is the first phase, the switching from TV traditional varieties to MB1. It took a little bit longer time, but it's natural because they completely changed their farming system. Another point I would like to show is this tiny portion here, the corner of dry season, right corner of dry season. Highly, it's emerging in dry season in the central part, but still cute. And this period, government provided a supporting program. They provided a package of hybrid seeds to the farmer. That was one reason why they tried hybrid seeds. But lastly, actually, I visited the farmer and some of them still use it. But not all. The farmer who has suitable plot for hybrid continuously uses it. The top variety. More detail on the variety. It's wet season top varieties. I want to point out two features. First, IL-64, so for the mega variety, has been the top variety for long time in the 80s and 90s. But after that, in 2000, replacement cycle is really critical. Every season, every round, different varieties. And also, change of the ranking of the many varieties. So, the placement process becomes much quicker in recent years. Similar in dry season. But more different varieties in the dry season program because in dry season, farmers have more choices in the suitable varieties. Okay, next one is the changes in yield variation. This measures the variation of yield among the farmer in a particular round, in a particular season. And to measure that, I use a coefficient of variation which is defined as standard deviation divided by the minimum. What we can learn from this is initially when farmer switch from traditional variety in the 60s to modern variety first generation in the 70s, variation of yield went up. It's quite natural because some cultivation of modern varieties is quite new experience to the farmer. Some will fail, some will succeed. So, variation was high. But later, as they get used to the modern farming, the variation since 1970 has continuously gone down up to the latest round. So, this means that modern cultivation technology or modern way of farming has been now standardized among the farmers. Okay, second changes in crop management practice and yield use. First, I'd like to talk about the particular price and use. The left hand side figure shows the price. The particular access measure price is 15 per kilogram and the green line measures real price of 10. Right hand side figure shows NPK application kilogram per hectare. From here, in the 60s and 70s there is a period of introduction of modern varieties. The modern variety is a fertilizer-responsive variety. There are four fertilizers that increase that period. But at the same time, you can see the price also increase, real price increase. Even price, regardless of this price increase, because the demand increase is so big, farmers increase the application of nitrogen fertilizer. And after that continuously up to the year of the rice prices, farmers steadily increase the fertilizer application. By the 90s the application got close to the recommended level. P and K, not so much, even now 20 kg per hectare. Both of these. This is the supporting figure. It shows the nitrogen adi price ratio. What I learned from at Erie, when I was at Erie, is that as a rule of thumb, if this ratio is lower than 4, application of the fertilizer is closer. And so look at this. Except the year of rice year prices, where in that year, fertilizer price went up also but other years, the ratio is basically lower than 4, so fertilizer application has been closer. That's additional information. Well, insecticide use and outside use. This is very striking for me, this figure. Insecticide use increase sharply in the 70s together with the introduction of modern varieties. That aspect as a negative side of the green revolution. But after that, because of the educational campaign and also introduction or integrated price management, it sharply went down in the Philippines and reached about 0.2 kg active ingredients. By the way, the virtual access is kg of active ingredients, active ingredients in the contents of the cancer. It's converted into the cancer. Yeah. And the reduction of insecticide use that period Prabhupinay also a SSD we belong to SSD at that time and he wrote very, very landmark journal to one the health program of the chemical use. And he actually took a block of the farmer and then showed that how overuse of the chemical is caused damage over the health of the farmer. This is really a innovative way to show the damage of the chemical use from the real data. And that is really strong impact in the society and then it turned out to be this result. So I want to stress that how scientific evidence is important to change the society. Well, on the other hand I decided to use a grown up and things to be reached to the maximum level. One feature I want to point out is the difference between DS and web season and web dry season application is higher because about half of the farmer is now using a direct season. Direct season you have to control the wind. So they are flying more hard in dry season. On the other hand, wet season because no farmer use direct season in the central zone because water control is difficult so they cannot control germination so in central zone, wet season there is no direct season. Additional information about the proportion of the direct seeding farmer in dry season. Now the third topic is mechanization and labor use. Two types of mechanization. One for non-preparation and the other for pressure. Non-preparation in the 60s most of the work is done by animal, kalabao. But after the introduction of power tira it has gradually replaced animal preparation and now a major source of the power is the hand plant. They still use animal kalabao but this is not, this is because dwelling at the side and the corner of the plot cannot be done by the tractor. Therefore they still use kalabao. Sureshin machine, introduction of small scale Sureshin machine is more successful. By 90s nobody is doing Sureshin by manual or big Sureshin. Now 100% Sureshin by manual.