 Week two of the 2021 NFL season was a certified roller coaster because started off on a really bummer now with a bunch of quarterbacking injuries on the early slates and we never want to see that those really suck and then the afternoon games come around and all of a sudden we've got some chaos we've got some fun games we've got some big DFS scores and some exciting players doing exciting stuff Sunday football pretty fun as well so there's a lot to process week two we're going to break it all down let you know what it means from a DFS perspective and get you set for week number three welcome on into the heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire that's right here on the fan dual podcast network in numberfire.com my name is Jim Sonnis I am a senior writer and analyst for numberfire.com joined here as always by Brandon Gadoula he is the managing editor for numberfire.com Brandon week two is mostly in the books how are you doing today um i'm i'm good uh you know we had a really slow start like you said uh till week two and then the afternoon games and then the sunday night game were were pretty phenomenal but uh i i'm having a hard time moving past the fact that you were just singing some fallout boy right before we recorded was i yeah what did i sing the it's one of their newer songs that uh light them up song is that fallout boy yeah and i was gonna say if you're gonna sing some fallout boy you gotta get a little bit older than their new stuff which isn't i don't i didn't know that was them honestly why did i think that i don't remember singing that song fully so like yeah you were blacked out yeah i i guess but you were singing it uh right before you flip flip the switch to turn us on oh yeah okay light them up yeah okay so there we go uh apparently i know fallout boy didn't know that i knew that but hey here we go to address it i mean i didn't think you would have known a song from them i mean like apparently i do i i know of them and i know that song i just didn't know that was them so clearly my knowledge is greater than i than i thought it may be which i wish would have been the case for nfl dfs week two but it was frustrating i think it's the way that i would say it because i mean naji harris ventured got there like do i feel good about it no but he got there and then there was the cowboys charters game which was awesome like there was there were a bunch of yards they moved the ball up and down the field that will but then penalties just ruined everything penalties uh there was weird stuff in the red zone so like i had a lot of that game i had a lot of dak and a lot of herbert and having that be the capper to the slate i think just kind of made it frustrating even though like i had enough kyla we're like you know that that definitely helped uh but like it was just kind of frustrating the way that worked and then darik henry just lighting things up there we go again like it was uh the the afternoon sleigh was fun but like i i feel like i just wish i could have i don't know i wish that that cowboys charters game hadn't gone the way it had because i feel like it would have made things go a lot smoother yeah um the the darik henry thing is it's just our good reminder of and i know that we bucket him with nick chubb but i think we also very much differentiate he and nick chubb because nick chubb doesn't really have these 40 point games but you need players in your lineups who can erase mistakes as you as you like to put it darik henry can do that now sometimes he can be the mistake to play but that is why upside it is so important and that's the one thing that that really stuck out to me is you know we were both kind of tilting like why do we play chris carson and he scored twice and like i still hated myself for it but and like i understand there's a salary gap between guys like this but it's just really important uh to keep in mind like yeah getting a two touchdown game from chris carson is very different most likely from a two touchdown game from something like darik henry or alvin chimera or dalvin cook or christian mccaffrey because i forgot about alvin thanks for reminding me of chimera what happened there yeah so yeah he was my snake draft uh first round pick so the snake draft did not go well for me drosh alan looks completely i don't want to say completely busted but uh there's a i think there's a lot uh that we need to figure out if it's real or not and we will be to start that off uh just talking about the headliners but first hey football fans fandals giving new users an exclusive offer to play nfl daily fantasy for free all season long all you got to do is sign up if you have not yet for fandal daily fantasy i know some of you are new listeners here welcome if you're not signed up for fandal yet make sure you do so you'll receive one free voucher for each remaining week of the nfl season you will receive your voucher upon sign up to the fandal app uh vouchers will automatically apply to each weekly entry head over to fandal dot com and sign to play daily fantasy football today eligibility restrictions apply new users only go to fandal dot com or download the fandal app more details also a quick reminder we do have a listener league back once again uh week one ran so we will have a or sorry week two ran we'll have a week three listener league as well tune in on the thursday preview podcast to get the url for that i'll put it pretty early in the podcast so you can know where to go it's a five-dollar entry three entries max there is no rake uh so you can go there and get yourself entered next week just a reminder to tune in on thursday to get that link let's break down the headlines now week number one the main headline here for this or if week number two the main headline here unfortunately is the quarterbacking injuries because quarterback just drives so much of how we view teams from a dfs perspective when we see guys go down they're like four different quarterbacking injuries we had to discuss it is kind of where we have to start things we'll talk about some happier stuff and the role changes with some receivers emerging but first let's start things off here with the quarterbacking injuries with adie dalton heard his knee early against the bears or with the bears against the bangles did not return justin fields came in didn't look great six of 13 for 60 yards he had a pick uh negative point six zero passing that expected points per drop back but there were good things there first of all he was willing to throw down fields dalton was not we know fields is a good deep ball thrower he ran the ball 10 times compared to 13 pass attempts that's pretty crazy so brandon it sounds i was listening to you know rapport this morning and it sounds like he is hinting as if justin fields will be starting in week number three against the cleveland browns so let's just assume right now that's the case how do we view this bearish team if we assume justin fields is the starter in week number three i mean i think the default is to say that it's better than with andy dalton but the the sheer number of rushing attempts he had compared to passes uh at least puts into question how hard we would be able to go with someone like alan robinson who as much as we love alan robinson typically is more of a volume based uh ceiling guide than than a downfield threat but we did see fields at least throw uh deep so at least 16 areas downfield from the line of scrimmage on three of his 13 attempts um two of those went to darnell mooney the other one went to alan robinson uh overall mooney had four targets from him uh robinson had three and mark he's good when i had three so if we at least know that he's going to fixate more on mooney and robinson that helps um but the the real question i think comes into like the the real question we have to ask is what's their pass rate going to be and how might that affect the overall offense so i would want to be out ahead of the curve with justin fields i don't think that's even possible because everyone seems to everyone has just been waiting for him but yeah i think that if everyone is going to go hard at him that the the possible red flag here would just be he might run the ball a ton and they might not throw the ball uh as much as we would hope for the stacks to hit i think that the way i'd view it is being more volatile which is good i think volatility is good i should clarify that volatility is a good thing because he could be what he was on sunday which is a guy who runs a lot a guy who isn't super effective as a passer the floor on that is pretty bad but we saw justin fields in the preseason we've heard buzz during training camp we watched him obliterate clemson uh in college we know what this dude can do so i feel like the range of alchem just got a lot wider it gets a lot wider a field starts that's a good thing so you're looking at that game between chaco and cleveland it's a 46 and a half point total like that game could be 34 points or it could be 57 points by the end i think that's a good thing because we talk a lot about trying to stack good a game environment there is a situation which this is one of the better game runs on the slate that's not my default assumption but there is a path to that and i think that that's pretty valuable and i would say that that even if they do run more and even if field is not as effective as we'd we'd hope right away i still think that down or an upgrade for for mooney and robinson because fields will go downfield we need downfield pass attempts for our our rider seekers yeah we really do um and that's that's one thing that i've really uh learned from you the past few years is a dot can help air yards can help um but this year just downfield targets that guys are getting um that you know i ran the numbers i don't i don't remember the exact percentage off my head but like uh downfield targets are more important they're worth more than your average target obviously um and so that's that's important that's why i'm kind of high on darnell mooney moving forward he actually led the team in routes this week yeah and i we talked about mooney a lot last year i was not in on him but that was because i didn't have faith in the guys during the football to connect downfield now you've got a guy who i've seen with my eyes have a great deep ball and mooney has a lot of speed i think that that adds up pretty well so i would say that mooney gets the biggest bump here of the guys could you do like a rapid fire name that salary for fields david montgomery alan robinson and darnell mooney field 75 uh david montgomery 77 alan robinson i'll probably be lower than his actual salary this probably like 7 000 uh and then darnell mooney i would say is 57 those are all very much off the top of the head the mooney is 56 so you're right on there robinson 7 000 so you were dead on uh montgomery is 6900 which is very nice okay a lot lower than than you expected and then jesson fields 6500 oh so he could open things up a lot oh week three 65 so is this one okay so for anyone who hasn't tuned in yet to a recap show which i guess this is our second um even though it's we're we're doing a a final concluding section notes to our future self things we don't want to forget would you consider putting play justin fields in that no because i feel like there are other good quarterbacks in that slate so i don't think he's a must i think that he is gonna be in the player pool yes okay like if he starts 6500 given the rushing given the possibility i think that game shoots out i would also say it opens up browns defense again at 4200 like i think you want you want to have both situations covered because again it's a very volatile situation which is good in this scenario yeah so did you differ from me in any of the skill guides as far as where i thought the sour should be um no i was about i was about on i would be a little bit lower on david montgomery just because i'm never i'm never putting david montgomery up close to 8 000 just because uh because of how i am but yeah next week with this just looking at the schedule we should have russ uh who else uh kyler mehomes lemar yeah it's gonna be montgomery had a really good role in week two i know it's because they were ahead but like 79 snap rates 44 of the red zone chances he had 28 adjust opportunities he looked good in week one we got banged up i think that montgomery is under salaryed at that i would say that role yeah but i also wouldn't put him at 77 i'd wear enough for him or 73 or 74 so keep it close tab on that one because if field starts that's gonna be a big headline for week number three let's move now to the dolphins to a tongue of iloa uh bruised his ribs and didn't return didn't look good i i thought worse and bruised ribs when he went down because he was like kind of stumbling it didn't look good speaking it didn't look good you got me reset uh came in that game negative 0.31 passing that expected points per drop back in that game it kind of sounds seems like expectation right now is that tool will start in week number three against los vegas but we've seen him once against new england where i had some concerns on the way he looked in that game and then he got hurt early against the bills so what's your vibe on this miami offense heading out to los vegas in week number three it's not great two has taken a sack on 11.4 percent of his drop backs which is a top top four rate or i guess bottom four rate however you'd want to look at that but um that's that's problematic uh his a dot 7.9 yards which is just the average not a whole lot of overall uh efficiency um i just i feel like miami is an offense that i'm never going to worry about uh and i pose this question in our slack uh yesterday um on sunday just thinking like i got started thinking through like what are the odds at 5 p.m on a sunday that i'm tilting like not using someone from a ceiling perspective and there's nobody in this offense that i would just be like i should have used them because their ceiling was so great so this is one of those things where yeah we have quarterback injuries but in a certain point i think it just takes the offense is completely off the board you know two might play but if he's banged up and has been struggling already then that's just kind of hard to get behind yeah uh right now nobody in this offense is more than a 24 target share davante parker leads at 23 percent parker has three total deep targets they didn't throw a deep a lot in week one kind of as you alluded to with the low a dot i i think that like parker and waddle would be considerations but like they're not i agree where i'm not there's not a lot of fomo there i think yeah it's i think it's i think it's probably the only chance that i'm getting there it's if i love the other side of the game and i'm just looking for bringbacks but that's you might because we'll talk about tarot car later yeah bombs away baby uh tarot taylor bummer suffered a hamstring injury he's out at least this thursday he was just playing too well like we didn't deserve tyrod or tarot uh davis mille took over and completed eight of 18 passes um he averaged 0.09 passing unexpected points per drop back which seems wrong but whatever um he was horrible in the preseason he averaged negative 0.41 epa per drop back according to next gen stats i know it's a single game slate but like i know you have to use one texan in your lineup but it's gonna be really hard to find one with davis mille's there starting on thursday i think the big takeaway here is i know carolina's seven point favorite i wouldn't be shocked if that moves before uh before the game i think we're okay just writing off the entire texans team right i don't want to do that to my guy chris connelly um but he had two targets even though they threw a ton i'm not not trying to poo poo your boy but like the the one guy that i was gonna get at he was tied for second in targets he was because there was such a big gap uh brandon cooks would be the obvious uh beneficiary here of i don't know i'm not really beneficiary but um i think he's let me see if i stored this the right way third in target share uh through two games behind cooper cup and diva samuel among receivers that's again you're not gonna want to go out of your out of your way on a full slate to play brandon cooks in such a bad offense but you know if we're talking single game he's the guy who just has the clear role yep uh they're a cross-off team for sure once tarot gets back we can talk about them because he looked really good again and i think that was fun um but like not with davis mille's karson wenz turned his ankle in the fourth quarter and did not return doesn't seem too bad but like they were in a high impact situation and wenz couldn't really go um jacob eason did not look good i'm not sure what the vibe is on wenz it sounds like it's not related to his foot injury from the preseason but it's a they're in an interesting game for week number three it seems like bookmakers are assuming wenz will play because it is a four and a half point spread in favor of tennessee right now what's your level of concern on this tennessee or this indian apples offense given we don't really know wenz's health michael pitton did kind of have a role in week two yeah pitton was someone i was keeping an eye on i almost played him a bit um in my own lineups but i didn't quite get there and in like daryl henderson bring backs but um he's had a solid role i just think that and this is probably kind of us talking we're not that high on karsten wenz to begin with um so i don't know how much i would change based on his health what's really appealing or interesting i should at least say is that that game has a total of 50 and a half which is one of four games that i'm counting on the main slate over 50 i don't think it'll stick there that's without the chargers and the chiefs posted yet so that that'll make it five i thought they were on there uh they're not oh they're not okay no so i would expect that not to be above 50 um and if even if it is i don't think i'm going to chase that one um i just don't have a whole lot of interest in the colt's offense historically because of the target shares that they dole out michael pittman's kind of the only uh receiver you could consider from a daily fantasy standpoint some other guys are relevant more per season long and then there's obviously jonathan taylor but i typically don't even get to jonathan taylor uh just because i prefer other offenses so i'm still just kind of down on this offense regardless of karsten wintz's health yeah taylor did lose snaps again because they were in a negative script which is you know one thing we knew was possible but the one positive for him is that he still had 44 percent of the team's red zone chances so we saw last year where he'd lose work to not he mines in the red zone that's not happening this year so that's the one good thing for him and i think that i think that i'll probably have shares of that game in terms of game stacks and both pitman and taylor worked there and let's see what the salary is for pitman it is 56 hundred dollars i think that's low enough where i can like be okay but not like prioritizing right yeah i think i think the the wide receiver depth that we have in the nfl currently is putting a lot of capable receivers uh on the radar but just by nature of you can't have every receiver above 6000 with a roll on fandal so we're naturally going to get kind of a row i would assume like a rotating cast of receivers you haven't performed you know for a week or two dropping below 6000 on fandal that one's probably just going to be part of that so i think that that's going to end up being a key uh for me on fandal just because of the the state of position okay so this is the quarterbacking injuries let's move now into the injury section of the podcast and talk about uh some of the non-quarterbacks who got hurt just starting off with jarvis landry hurt his mcl and seems like he's probably going to miss some time here baker mayfield still average 0.20 passing that expected points per drop back without him which i mean like they had a lot of time last year to work with like non-elite receivers and baker still played well austin hooper and donovan people's jones led with 17 routes run rishard higgins had more of a full-time roll of 15 routes nick chubb and anthony schwarz both ran 13 david and joku and harrison bryant ran 11 so seems like they went with a lot of heavy formations with and joku bryant hooper out there out there which is good for hooper who lost some routes to and joku last week and seems like that was not as true this week so landry's probably going to sit we don't know the status of odell beckham for this week where are you sitting with this brown's offense if we assume jarvis is not going to go and we don't know about odell beckham so this is one of those spots where i would say just remember that nfl dfs is not nba dfs not every injury is the biggest thing that ever happened yeah and actually a lot of the times with nfl if you take their the best skill position players off the field the offensive expectation drops a ton if you're not moving the ball you're not running plays you're not you know generating yards you're not having touchdown chances this isn't just like who can get the most targets per dollar in salary like we might have with nba i'm not overly excited about the browns is a seven and a half point favorite they might just i mean they're they're they're going to want to run the ball and i think that where we get who led here in targets hooper with five like in jarvis basically out the whole game so yeah hooper is $5300 not even like a super low salary tight end like he's no he's up there i guess what's people what's people's jones but he's he's $5500 and he got a lot of good buzz during camp and he played well at times last year but like he's had a good role both games and has two total targets yeah like that's because i want to like him he's running some wind sprints out there he's a spat i mean he's looking good doing him he's a he's a great athlete but like it's kind of annoying like anthony sports just doesn't like he's kind of banged up five targets in week one and what he does is speed right three of them are downfield yeah congrats on this um we'll keep this receiver over 55 miles per hour but like i think that with with him it's just like is he is there a situation where donovan people's jones or anthony shorts gives me seven targets that's that i don't know i don't think so i mean so they had seven guys in week two run between uh 48 percent and 74 percent of routes so between 11 and 17 that's a that's a hefty number of players to be giving like middling workloads yeah um so i just again i'm just gonna say it is this isn't like if we had like an eight man rotation nba it'd be like yeah play all these guys but it just doesn't work that way and i don't really see the the path to big games from from these receivers if they're all getting kind of equal opportunities overall yeah it's it's tough i i think you could take swipes but you can't have any confidence in any of these guys and i'd rather have confidence in my dudes personally uh no update yet in deontay johnson who seemed to hurt his knee at the end of the game it was literally like a worthless play they were down i think by two scores and they there was nothing to be gained there hurt his knee but no update yet chase claypool with five d targets in the game problems that the offense sucks and they can't afford to lose good players i know people have gripes about deontay johnson's hands but he's a good football player if you take him out of this offense that's gonna be rough uh defense they would be without tj watt that matters a lot for the opposing teams uh dj or tj watt hurt his groin that's concerned there but like the Steelers are already bad and now maybe no deontay johnson they're facing since nadi next week like since nadi didn't look since nice defense isn't like elite by any means but like i don't know i feel like maybe you go to claypool but like i think the overall expectation of this offense goes down it hurts naji harris once again too yeah i mean it's kind of a similar thing that we just talked about with the browns you take good players out of an offense it it opens up opportunity but those opportunities are tied to you know more more plays in the middle of the field fewer plays down in the red zone and i think the real key that they kind of jumped out to me just now the more that i think about it is that probably puts more of an emphasis on those downfield targets because if you're kind of guaranteeing fewer red zone trips for your team you don't be looking at like a red zone target you wouldn't be looking at the downfield targets the guys who are getting those those better opportunities so i would say that downgrades naji harris unfortunately and would put me highest on claypool of anyone because we know juju is not really going to be too much of a downfield threat so no with naji he has had 49 total yards and 81 so far that's bad 22 and 20 adjust opportunities that's not great he needed like a sick play just a score in week number two uh doesn't get a lot of red zone work he had 50 percent of the red zone chances this week 57 last week so like that's good but like name that's our naji harris now that we have two weeks to sample on this offense just being wretched he's got to be someone like in that 67 range i think because the workload is still good but the offense is not i think he's 2019 liner for net like that's that's kind of what it is where he gets amazing work but like the offense that was more for net maybe not being great than like the offense this is i think more the offense than naji so what would you say for his salary i think 67's right because he's 75 that's that's a lot now i know we're looking for guys who play just have snaps have a roll but that's that's tough especially whenever we were just basically praying that he got bailed out with a touchdown yesterday and we're not we're not really here to say like oh he had 45 and 38 rushing yards that's what he's going to do the rest of the year but there are you know with all of this context with the offensive line with with the ante banged up he might get more targets sure um he had five targets and three targets in week one but again if you're not moving the ball efficiently you need to break a long run and like he had that stiff arm and i think people will uh take note of that but that's a steep salary to be asking for in this offense all right would you rather joe mixon or naji harris jacking joe mixon by a wide margin right yeah i agree we've officially flipped on poor naji again not his fault this is not him and mixon 67 that's why i asked because i was like yeah my eyes lit up because that's why i know it's not a great rushing match up for mixing but i don't care for 67 put him up against like the 70s vikings purple people leaders and let's ride baby uh all the 49ers backs except Trenton cannon got hurt uh trace sermon as a concussion Elijah Mitchell had a shoulder injury he came back in but like he's not fully healthy john michael hasty has an ankle injury cannon is typically a special teamer but he has speed talked about this uh a thursday the monday night preview when he was with the ravens i was talking with ryan williams about how uh trenton cannon in madden with the jets back in like 2015 was amazing because he just had speed you could just like plug him into whatever but he's simply a special teamer so he does actually fit what they tend to do like where he mostard is a fast fast some more special teamer trend cannon is that too but like it seemed like Mitchell had a good role before the injury i just don't know what to think about this backfield given the lack of knowledge we have right now yeah it's going to be hard to project this early what happens i think the the really the real hypotheticals are because you know Eli Mitchell did come back i think the two hypotheticals you have to ask are if Mitchell plays where are we with this backfield and if it's like just Trenton cannon where are we with the with the backfield but they'll bring like i don't know it feels like they still have seven running backs on their roster because they feel like they have every running back in the league yeah they they do so we'll see how it plays out there i think that's when we just kind of need more info on let's move on now daryl henderson amazing role but then got hurt uh injuries ribs against the colds i think he might have played every snap before then i know jake funk got in it might have been for like one or two snap snaps before henderson got hurt but sony michelle played 16 of 19 snaps after henderson's injury 10 carries and no targets and like that's a good role i mean it's so it's an okay role the problem is they're facing the bucks next week and the one thing i mean bucks do a lot of stuff well but the thing they do like amazing on defense to stop the run so let's assume that there's no henderson and we're in this match up here at the box name that sour for sony michelle and week number three i'm probably gonna be low just but i'm baking in the match up and the fact that michelle has not been a a factor and before i even say this you said jake funk played three snaps he did um i tried to count these up i think there were 19 offensive plays for the rams after daryl henderson's injury i have michelle with 16 snaps and funk with three total snaps for the game i didn't count up jake funk snaps but that makes sense that you were grinding jake funk tape no so like henderson might literally have played every snap before that and if it took an injury to daryl henderson to get sony michelle out there that's telling so that plus the match up i'm gonna be low on this but i'd probably say like 6200 i was thinking 65 so we're not that far off um like it just i think there's a lot of question mark 257 so like it's low enough to be in play because like there's a situation where he does get some passing game work maybe so yeah sony michelle is going to be like the the point per dollar guy who makes a lot he'll be the elijah mitchell of week three yeah he's gonna make the optimizer lineups like love him and so that you can get up to the the stud receivers i was like deandre hopkins at probably 9 000 or whatever he's ronda more at 10 000 1000 uh in salary for every route he runs yep exactly um so i'm probably i don't want to hear what mcvay says mcvay is full of poop sometimes but the way he phrases things can be telling if you read into it like this week he someone asked him like well sony michelle get a bigger workload he said i don't know and like that that was true so don't take his words at face value but read into what he's saying and try to get a vibe on the sentiments around michelle and then go from there but it's just going to be early downwork ends that defense that's tough even though i'm going to stack the daylights out of that game most likely so keep that in mind let's move now to role changes and talk about happier things we saw some good wide receivers get good usage in week number two and a lot of them are like mid-range guys not like the typical stud wide receivers one of them is a previous stud wide receiver who is back good to see him healthy again given the camp ports that his courtland sun was outstanding in week two from a usage perspective he had 12 targets nobody else had more than six he had 5d targets 260 ariarts courtland sun was getting work teddie bridgewater is playing well teddie bridgewater revenge game incoming against the jets thoughts on courtland sudden here yeah i thought about that i feel like teddie's gonna have a ton of revenge games coming up they play the same since here i really need him to i think that'd be great just feels like he's been with enough teams now where he's going to be like you know the ryan is patrick revenge in every every third week's gonna be a revenge game for him i'm gonna do it um but yeah sudden someone that we liked a lot last year um mostly because he is just a phenomenal receiver you alluded to the the camp reports where it seemed like he was maybe not mentally ready to return after his injury i think that hopefully he's overcome that but the five downfield targets tied him for a week lead with chase claypool as you mentioned but also mike evans that that's good good company to keep and i put together a little model just kind of predict expected fantasy points based on underlying data so doesn't even really factor in anything that you actually did he led the week so basically a way to say he had the best kind of overall workload among receivers in week two so i don't really think you can talk poorly about that yeah uh i think if i did the flow to comp out there he's gonna be alan robinson esk where he's not in games we want to stack but the workload is amazing that's kind of the one downside is i don't know how often i'll want to stack broncos games just because like their defense is pretty good and they're not going to be in a lot of super high scoring affair that i wouldn't expect yeah i think oh yeah i mean style it like stylistically not quite just because of the the downfield targets i think robinson gets downfield work sure but i don't know i'm sure alan robinson has like a 16 target 260 yard game but uh they're probably fewer than than than suttons but yeah so yeah that's a good that's a good comp i think like in terms of how we would think of them although i would assume courtland sutton probably never going to be as high salary as alan robinson but i could be wrong in that name that's our for courtland sutton week three considering that it's a game where they're heavily favored against a bad team so that's going to bog things down um how does 68 sound appropriate that's around that's around the a rob zone uh and sutton is scrolling 6900 dollars about appropriate yeah i think like you know it's a 41 and a half point total that's rough that might be high that might be high we'll see we'll see uh zack wilson is not as bad as perception on sunday he made some really idiotic throws but like people took it a little too far like cori davis should have one of those picks but whatever um ron dalmore we joked about it before like not running a lot of routes but like who cares uh he leads the cardinals and target share through two weeks over deandre opkins 19.7 which is not great but like he ran a route on 22 of 39 dropaxes which is 56 but led the team with eight targets he had a better role in week two than he had in week one i would say it's really hard to keep talented guys out the field for too long and whether that is at the expense of a j green or christian kirke i don't know a j green kind of dusted the vikings on the play which is really embarrassing um i feel like we should be okay with ron dalmore even though the routes are bad is that is that begging for death and destruction is that what i'm asking for here yeah this is a really interesting conversation because everybody knows what ron dalmore did in week two and even in week one like it was it was a really strong production-based week one all things considered for rookie but he's run 36 routes total um i think if you look at the other top four christian kirke runs 50 it's like there's a pretty massive gap between he and the next guy in that top four but he leads the as you mentioned in target share and he's gotten a target on 36 of his routes run that rate trails only debo samuel at 42 in cooper cup at 37 among relevant receivers so it's one thing to have route like the volume of routes be the issue but he's getting work on those routes which really helps but i don't know if like he's getting volume because he because he was like wide open on his big touchdown like yeah that was a broken coverage so like if there comes a week where he's he still runs the fourth most routes is basically running half the routes of the other guys doesn't convert on these big plays maybe doesn't even get targeted at this outlier rate he's gonna bust and so it's like i can see both sides of it where yeah but he's getting work he's probably getting more acclimated he's probably gonna get keep that roll and get targeted when he's out there but then there's the flip side of like he's just not running a whole lot of routes and if it does if he's not hyper efficient he has no real path to like production do you want to guess ronda moore's average yards of separation per target per next gen stats it says probably like eight it's 7.8 i think you were exaggerating you were almost right so i think that with this situation you never want to assume the way coaches will play things because like coaches that'll lose you all a lot of money yes so much money yes however at a certain point like they were so i think the encouraging thing too is they were getting the ball in there they are trying to get the ball in his hands and that to me says that even if the route number stays low the routes the targets per route run number is going to be not outlierish maybe but it's going to be high so even if it does come down i think it'll still be elevated so those routes go up and that number stays high that to me is pretty encouraging so name that salary for ronda moore all things considered in week three at jackson though um so i ended up seeing it for transparency just because i wanted to throw it to you because i think i made my case and then you were making your case so you name that salary first fifty eight hundred dollars it's 56 perfect i'll take it like that's not a do you think that's appropriate or do you think that's too low that's appropriate i think so um like i think people will probably be a bit more excited about him than they should be in week three given the volatility but like i would still say that even if we go in with no additional information what his role will be he is still someone worthy worthy of exposure like we talked about will i regret not using this guy there is a good chance that regret not using ronda moore week three if i don't use him yeah but i can also see i can regret using him sure i can regret using him and he gets 15 routes and just the four targets and doesn't have the ad yard touchdown yeah so he's going to be fascinating i think we're probably end up talking more about him specifically on thursday just need jacksonville to score to do literally anything literally anything in that game which is not a guarantee um let's talk about the rams here because matthew stafford is slinging it looking really good and most of that slang and it's going to cooper cup he has 37 of the team's targets or 38 overall the first two weeks he has 30 of the deep targets and i think 40 percent in the red zone i just had these numbers um why don't i just actually look at the numbers okay so 38 overall 33 deep 40 in the red zone matthew stafford balling out uh cooper cup's been awesome and robert woods is kind of getting outrun by van jefferson which is weird i know that the targets favor woods by a pretty decent amount but i would say level of concern on woods is decent uh level of green these days are green in this conversation level of adoration for cooper cup skyrocketing as you know cooper is not my favorite uh uh not my favorite uh guy but uh i'm i'm into it now i'm finally on team cooper cup i've been broken yeah i mean the the 37 target share in week two 39 percent a week one uh and the thing i think for us with with cup is that he historically has not gotten a whole lot of downfield work his eight up so eight yards he also fumbles and ruins jaren golf's expected points numbers but that's different uh he had a downfield target in week one um a different source actually had two downfield targets for him in week one as well but i had two in week two and a touchdown each week on those downfield books which yes it says regression but i'm okay going with the guy getting some downfield work that's just a big difference for me so i was not as high as i should have been because i love the role with cup the $6200 salary was phenomenal i just was like well he's still cooper cup not going to get a whole lot of downfield work and that's that's changing so that is what is driving my uh differentiation this year on cup yeah and i i liked him i just wasn't in that range very much which is like it's a bad excuse like that's bad i should if you like someone that much you should prioritize him and i didn't that was a mistake on my part didn't have enough i had some but not enough for sure uh with cooper cup name that star for cooper cup in week number three uh he's gonna he's gonna have like the biggest jump um who do they play and what's the overunder they play the box in one of the best kinds oh yeah yeah that's right um he's gonna be like 75 probably he is 79 but it's appropriate given his target share that's fine yeah boy they're gonna throw so they're top three in uh just percent of their plays that are downfield passes yeah that's that's gonna be a a pass heavy game oh yeah i'm into it very into it um what are your thoughts on robert woods and tyler higby higby i used a lot of on sunday did not go well yeah um his target share dropped from 23 percent to 3 percent uh in week two um i'm probably just not i don't know i don't think i have to go so i guess the issue is if they weren't in this game next week i wouldn't really even have much interest in robert woods but i'm gonna have interest because everyone is most likely going to be down on robert woods after what he's put forth so i should probably be open to the idea of some woods he's got a 10.8a dot uh two downfield targets per game is that per game yeah per game uh he's got more ariards per game than than cup i think i think maybe woods is just kind of gonna get like forgotten about yeah yeah so cups at 18 18.7 expected receiving fantasy points per game woods is at 14.8 and their their gap in actual fandal points per game is a cavern so what's the 6100 dollars so i'll be there i'm probably gonna have a lot of i'm probably gonna have a lot of robert woods i don't want to but i will too um it's disappointing um tyler higby he didn't do anything which is annoying and it does hurt to go back to someone who just literally like took a cinder block to like wherever is most painful on you and that sucks but he ran a route on 26 and 31 drop backs and he played every single snap once again i think he did that last week as well higby's 5500 dollars i think that tyler higby is a cash game consideration at that salary despite the fact he had one target this past week sure i mean tight end we're gonna have kelsey on on the slate um grog who is basically kelsey yeah darren waller will be back on the slate it's i don't know it's honestly i mean i know darren waller wasn't great this week but it's really scary yeah no he's great it's scary at this point to avoid the the elite tight ends and the elite quarterbacks because they're separating from the rest of the their positions i do think higby has a role good enough to get there though so i'd say that to get you what 11 no he plays every snap and a good offense in the game we want to stack come on come on come on uh diva sandals meant to himself as a target monster for the 49ers there are two games 39 the targets he's averaging 10 targets per game if you're concerned about the run heavy nature he's getting targets george katal a second at 18 percent which is 4.5 per game debo just two deep targets but he's shown yardage upside still because he's amazing um so i know that like it's not the best rule but like it's pretty good still bright enough you did have a little bit more life in week number three or two he ran around on 18 or 30 drop backs still just two targets i think it's kind of debo show until we hear different right oh yeah i mean it's it's that's very crazy got 54 in the team's area yards which is 72 per game which isn't phenomenal but we know he's got run after the catchability and honestly if you give debo anything that is at the line of scrimmage that's good for debo but anything beyond that is just a big plus so yeah i'm totally fine with it also also high key might get some rush more rushing attempts this week because of all the running back injuries very very true so debo could be kind of uh a bit of a cheat code this week but before i forget robert woods three total deep targets one and a half per game i had it sorted to week two not not both weeks i just wanted to clarify before scrub yeah uh terry mclauren seems to be a favorite of taylor heineke he had 14 targets on thursday which gives him a 28 target share this year heineke is at 0.09 passing that expected points per dropback this year 0.10 last year so i think that's probably about where we should expect him not super aggressive thus far has been heineke but um the other thing is there's some slight concerns around the high leverage looks because mclauren has just two deep targets and one in the red zone so far this year but i think that he's kind of reestablished himself as being a target hog for this team facing buffalo next week what's your thoughts on terry mclauren for that game like him uh the two deep targets in week two i'm really just looking at his week two stuff here on 110 air yards 14 targets it's mclauren is one of those guys who both has a path to stealing from volume but also big playability and that is super valuable to me um so he's going to be someone that i i do like the rest of the year if he's going to get peppered like this yeah but even if even if the that workload gets scaled back some for some reason i think the high leverage looks are good enough for me had an end zone target red zone target too deep and on thursday uh logan thomas revenge game next week for that one i don't really have a ton of interest because he's kind of you know the role's been okay this year but you know just noting that needs to be noted that it's a revenge game for logan thomas uh mike williams didn't get a role change but solidified what he did in week number one he had 10 targets compared to kina now it's eight and if you look at their two their their sharers this year their overall targets deep targets and red zone targets they are almost clones i am going to view them as a one a one b situation a dk meccaf tyler lockett situation where they are both really good and although there are two guys getting work in the same offense i don't care i'll just use let's use the ball why not um so i think there are one a one b going forward what are your thoughts on a big mic after week two i was thinking of it more of uh not necessarily play style wise feeling jefferson or no sorry the one that came to mind for me because i think there's a clear gap although probably going to work for feeling and jefferson um was last year for a g brown and cori davis okay where you would still prioritize the a g brown and that which i think is kina now and but uh their workloads being identical and again cori davis being capable last year mike Williams definitely being capable this year so it's going to be one of those where like i still want i'm going to prefer kina allen every week like so i wouldn't say quite one a one b but mike Williams is the the number two here for me but it's it's a lot closer than it was so uh i think and i think you and i just both loved him for a while now he's great he gets he gets kind of targets we want baby and he's converting and then they get called back by penalty because it's the chargers uh name that salary for mike williams in week number three versus kansas city in a game that we are going to stack the poop out of um that's going to be like a 68 probably he is six thousand what okay so all right let me scroll ahead to notes to myself play like what kina 69 though so like just use both or kina all those bills it all sets what's that all sets tary can kelsey a bit like echelor seven thousand still what and echelor okay got one of my notes to remember for next week have you ever played for the chargers if yes i will use you in week number three that is the checklist what's herbert like 63 apparently 7500 he went down i think 100 people love justin herbert i found that out on twitter did you people bad mouth him do you bad mouth him or what no i would never do that but people are like i saw a tweet that was like name the name the number of quarterbacks you take over herbert over the next 10 years okay so jarred golf tarantula baker mayfield to a tongue of aloha well the answer was zero for that was good and i was like oh that's who are you talking to because i have a long like we're not like baking way too fast here i i don't i think it was like a legit nfl writer and i was astonished because there's a at least one guy i mean yeah like even if you nitpick everyone else like i don't i take dak too but whatever um that's not a anti herbert thing it's a pro dak thing because dak's great right um speaking of your quarterbacks some are jackson was peppering marquise brown in week number two can i introduce in some hollywood hollywood uh marquise brown led with 10 targets last night four those were deep two were in the red zone if we look at the first two games marquise brown 30 target share 63 the deep targets and half of the red zone targets it's small samples that's amazing samy walkins the 28 overall mark andrew's at 19 percent so this is a two-part question are you finally in on on marquise brown and where are you at in samy walkins and mark andrew's because mark andrew's no high leverage targets yet not a ton of work overall little uncomfortable with him uh what are your thoughts here with the raven's passing game yes so i was going to throw these guys in the situation to the monitor but i have marquise brown with at least a 20 target share in both games and the same for samy walkins um obviously brown the bigger target share in week two just barely made that cut off in week one walkins been around 27 percent but i think the thing that stands out for me is i have a story we've been down on on marquise brown just from a sheer volume standpoint but if he's going to get those like jump passes and just be the clear number one here or at least the very obvious 1a over like a samy walkins that changes things that also puts the mar jackson into much even more viability for me from a defes perspective because lamar is one of the guys that you can justify playing uh in a naked stacks and not really stacking him with a receiver but if you can give me marquise brown or even samy walkins if he can stay healthy and relevant that's going to bump up lamar jackson for me as for marquise andrew's i'm not really there his receiving role i mean he's he's averaging 5.9 vandal points per game he should have 6.5 so a slight underperformance there but like not a whole lot to be that concerned about yeah and the reason that that number is low is because he's not getting the kinds of targets that jack up that number fast yeah that's the thing i think that's what makes it really concerning for me and maybe that's just a small sample because they faced tyron matthew like that can that can jack some things up for sure but like i'm i'm a little concerned but you know they're playing Detroit next week that could be a good get rights by spot mark andrew's not a game we'll probably want to stack despite the fact that ravens has minjres and jarragoff is the best quarterback of the planet but like i think that might be a good situation to get more data on andrew's and then see how we apply that when he's on in games that we find more attractive what would his salary need to be for you to want to like kind of build around him so if i go based on the role he has had so far this year i think that he's like a $5800 tight end so he's 6 000 so it's not that far off but yeah i'm not going to go out of my way to be building around mark andrew's higby or mark andrew's i guess higby at this point just for the salary i agree uh so this is not a receiver role change we do have to talk about it in role changes because my goodness uh derrick henry is going to catch passes this year we should have talked about this last week i messed up um he had six targets this week which is the most his entire career that uh the four targets he had last week were tied for the fourth most of his career i didn't i i kind of noticed it but didn't make notice and i should have 47 adjust opportunities which is carious plus two x targets this week nobody else had more than 36 that is inflated by overtime however my goodness did they go to ot they did yeah um so they're at home against the colts name that salary for derrick henry in week number three he's gonna be like at least 9400 i feel like but what would you put him at i would want to put him at like being honest that i would i would go 9 000 yeah i think 88 9 000 somewhere in there is appropriate he is 9700 i still think that like you should use him at that number um so there's no christ mccaffery on this slate i don't think he needs to be a 50 type guy at that number which is helpful like sure that does lower like dalvin cook at 95 i think is in a i like that game bit more against seattle um so that does help too but like henry's role is sick right now yeah uh and we've or at least i i don't want to say we in this situation just have been more hesitant on henry uh and i mean i think the more even more encouraging than the receiving is that he's done this before thanksgiving he cares you know he's he's trying before thanksgiving it's weird what's going on i mean i i want to see how this affects his pre thanksgiving splits and why nobody's talking about it yeah not november yet well it sounds like there's some turkey outside or something like that's anyway uh we'll see with darry canary but i feel like even though 97 is a lot his role justifies that right now let's finish up with some situations to monitor starting off with you which situations do you have your eye on based on week two usage and more um so some of these we ended up covering anyway but just some some quick this is just kind of our quick segment here darna mooney uh led the bears and routes in week two which i thought was interesting michael pitman jr had a 33 target share in week two that's 20 22 percent on the season uh we you and i historically just track how infrequently uh cults receivers get a 20 target share in a game so we've had bets on it before yeah um so he might be the only non jonathan taylor cult i would consider in dfs in quite some time speaking of taylor just a 46 snap rate in negative script but as you pointed out had a good red zone role i just don't love i don't like paying up paying heavy salary for running backs who get phased out um in negative script uh one thing that i find interesting there are 19 receivers who had at least a 20 target share in both games i took off some of the most obvious names because we don't need to talk about them but some some lower salaried or at least maybe unexpected receivers who again had a 20 target share in week one and two so kind of had a good role both weeks uh just because the short the short samples can really be fluky with overall target share right now but brandon cooks marquise brown and seamy walkins as we mentioned uh sterling shepherd deontay johnson uh hope you're healthy uh davante smith tons of air yards had an unique a dot i don't pay the bills i'm very i have 39 i know um but still a great role despite what happened this week i don't feel better about it i feel better about the process don't feel better about the results does not help pay the bills um obviously debo but i think pre entering the season that would have been surprising that his role has been so consistent both weeks uh mike Williams davante parker which isn't going to be enough for me to go there if two has banged up in jacoby mires how many targets of jacoby mires need to get 100 yards like over under 16 given that mac johnson's a dot is like three uh probably a push there okay cool um any other ones standing out to you because i think we talked about most of those receivers anything else you're looking at here um just quickly austin eckler uh 24 routes on week one zero targets 24 routes on week two nine targets so you said seven thousand is his salary yes i'm gonna have a lot of austin eckler again he paid off again with no touchdowns it was 2020 austin eckler all over again we're like i touchdowns are awesome i love running backs who can pay off without them i think it's amazing uh he left a bit to get checked for a concussion came back in after that which means he's good to go did get taped up a bit on the sideline too it looked like his ankle or his foot was getting taped up um but this week he had one of nine red zone chances i think a couple of those came while he was out of the game but last week seven of 23 they ran 23 snaps in the red zone last week that's absurd uh but i think that eckler is more of like a 7800 back given the role that he has if we account for the fact there might still be some touchdown concerns there yeah um i agree with that two other names that had jotted down just because i thought they had interesting roles for different reasons antonio gibson his third down role went from uh his target share went from 24 to 4 in week two with with basically a new uh you know with a new quarterback and then sequin barkley played 83 of snaps on that thursday night game which is relevant and i want to ask you um barkley plays the falcons and gibson plays uh at the bills what would you what would you put their salaries at so for sequin the falcons are pretty good against the rush i think that is worth noting yeah 83 of the snaps after uh 48 a week one 27 routes run yeah that was a four day arrest between games 13 rushes three targets he ran really well like he had that that big that big breakaway yeah i think sequins back to a rat this is gonna sound low but uh oh is it really low go ahead i was gonna say 76 and 6000 oh my god what yeah so what yeah what 83 and the reason i was gonna mention it i was like yeah sake one's gonna be like 7500 but he's playing 83 percent of the snaps and we know how good he is and coming off the dairy canary thing it's like you know sake one's not gonna have quite that kind of game but at his peak he could be the best running back in football the six thousand dollar salary is and again with the three targets 27 routes as you mentioned playing on that short week you had 56 percent of the red zone chances in week two play sake one bark wait so who do we have so far we have sake one you is every person who has ever thought of playing for the chargers uh like yeah okay cool okay it's in his role is the same as it was like like we knew those concerns they're still there like okay so i would say he's more of like a 68 type guy 61 yeah so yeah i i made a for anyone watching the video i've been kind of making some faces and doing some poses because that's perplexed but i mean i think era is not like three thousand dollars after whatever this past week i was like arrow up on sake one arrow down a bit on on gibson but with their salaries right around six thousand i mean okay so let's look at i'm glad you asked me to go over the other notes i had because i was gonna skip over these things just because we're an hour in already but gibson still had 108 yards and scrimmage in week one 73 in week two he had 30 adjust opportunities in week one like even though he's flawed i still think that like there's enough there to feel good about it and 61 i'd prefer sake one but like yeah but even though sake one again does have a team that's decent against the rush but still who cares nobody yeah uh so i was i played i i hit the absolute lock button on naji harris at 6100 i'm i might do the same one sake one for week three and dany sacks didn't play terribly on thursday so like you know that that helps too they get a extra long week arrest what could go wrong uh my things to monitor for this week tony pollard really effective on sunday he i think he seemed to gain some more work in this backfield zeke had 20 adjust opportunities pollard had 19 uh pollard just played 35 of the snaps and zeke played 72 but they're both effective pollard was more explosive zeke had a you know high success rate type type game zeke also had three of eight red zone chances pollard got just one so i would say that zeke is not off the radar i would say that this does put a dent in his floor and it does put a dent in his upside but you know still some we can consider here and then as far as pollard goes i don't want to go there yet but like it he's one of those guys where it's ron down more ask where if the role expands it it's really interesting what are your thoughts on the cowboys backfield yeah i'm not going to be as low on zeke as most people were even you know entering week two um the the snaps are still there it's just it's a spot where tony pollard both is good and when he's on the field he's getting work so it feels like his role is much much bigger than it is so i'm not to the point where i can play pollard by any means if you're not playing a majority of the snaps you're not in the conversation for me but i'm also not out on zeke now they do play monday night so it's a single game conversation but it can expand our sample kind of like with mark andrews we're like you know he's not he's on the main slate but like i want to get more information here right and i think that's good for the cowboys michael harbin had decent usage in week two he had eight targets four those were deep tyrie kill seemed to be a focal point for the ravens defense but harbin i think is a different role now than he had previously he's he's on the field a lot more than he was before so we you i think he was more so than me have been more hesitant on michael harbin using guys like demarcus robinson who's never got a downfield target except for the touchdown he had on last night um but that's the game we want to stack will you include michael harbin in those game stacks yeah i mean i i talked in week one about like trying to limit my exposure to wide receiver like threes and i think you kind of just say kind of you could probably call him the wide receiver three behind travis calcy and terry kill um but with the downfield work in it in this offense it's a little bit different so i'm good with harbin um but i just don't like that you besmirched demarcus robinson either i didn't sorry he hasn't so he had 172 yards in week one or week two in 2019 he has not come with a hundred come within a hundred yards that sense no no um we don't have a note on ceh but like he's dead to us right like we don't need to ever use ceh ever again yeah i really didn't anyway just because of how like what his role has been okay cool so yeah just want to make sure because like they got a pretty good rushing match next week and i just want to make sure i can cross them off we are always looking for tight ends of the pulse so pratt friarmuth i think getting friarmuth muth muth muth thank you i looked at like 16 youtube videos during drasses and i heard friarm friarmuth i've heard it all yeah within the same highlight package the same game i heard different pronunciations we'll go friarmuth um his week i was nodding because i love him okay yeah his week two is noteworthy because he ran around on more than half the teams drop backs after being around 32 last week finished the four targets um the stealers offense is bad enough where i'm not going to use friarmuth yet but like we need tight ends who will do something i think he's worth monitoring are you hiring him the matter no um i'm never really high on value tight ends just because they can really sink a line up unless they are well within like the four thousand range but i just want to mention that that friarmuth was a really good tight end prospect in my model um just kind of forgotten about because of kyle pits this year but he's he's great pent state bias from your like year and a half there yeah bleeding through yeah i was i know that that auburn pent state game this weekend was yeah brandon just bleeding nittany lions it's not bleeding blue he's bleeding actual lions coming out of his blood other tight end note max williams didn't run a ton of rats on sunday but did get seven targets in 94 yards um kind of interesting probably because it was a quasi revenge game he went to the university of minnesota beat up on the minnesota vikings i think it's a revenge game there yeah also um yeah i think that that's the main thing there not going there yet just noting that max williams did something uh talk about the panthers they are revolving around christ mccaffrey and dj more through two games more leads at 20 percent of the targets but caffrey is 22 percent nobody else higher than 14 percent robbie anderson does have four of nine deep targets but that's a pretty thin roll um are we okay just kind of focusing on more mccaffrey or are you still of interest in terris marshall robbie anderson dan arland any of those guys um no i mean it's not it's not a good enough offense for that um so i'm stuck with uh don't let the darnold people hear that they're they're they're in the twitter streets and they're very confident right now and it's very scary hey i like sam darnold but it's it i don't think it's really the offense where he's going to support four skill position players especially with i listen five so uh especially with um mccaffrey accounting for so much of the offense out of the backfield so for me it's still dj more and mccaffrey uh final one this is just one to note don't have to expand on it but cordial patterson is awesome didn't play a ton of snaps a week too but like got interesting usage seven carries and six targets for 69 yards he also had four of nine red zone chances mike davis got none i am fully out of mike davis i am keeping an eye on patterson if his role were to expand a bit i'd be there is he still wide receiver slash running back on fendall he is i believe so because he's a running back at wide receiver he keeps screwing up all of my well you can use like a 30 snap rate running back at wide receiver but he's also good he well imagine if you got if you could get a wide receiver who would get you six targets but would also get you 44 percent of the team's red zone chances and seven carries i mean he's like tason hill tason hill could play football so the the funny thing is mike davis still has played uh between two games 68 percent of snaps and has run 63 percent of routes by comparison just top three's number was really good in week two but i don't care he's dead that's but that's the thing is like that's still pretty good but it's not good enough for what we're looking for yeah agreed so mike davis dust cordial patterson deity dust or deity i'll be a fun game uh let's go through some quick philosophical changes here starting off with the bills i was keeping an eye on them because they didn't play well in week one and there had been some some chatter a little buzz buzz on the street about how okay you know didn't things didn't go well maybe they'll get zak mas active maybe they'll try to re-establish it they kind of did in week number two their early down first half pass right was 48 percent usually they're at about 112 percent in that number roughly just estimating it could be because josh allen has struggled it could be nothing i think it's more so worth noting than something i'm going to react to right away so let's get a temperature check for you on the bill's offense facing washington washington's defense not been immaculate to the first two games but they're still you know a good unit good defensive line i think part of the bill's issues have been their offensive line so uh temperature check on the bill's offense for you heading into week three um i don't know how to respond to a temperature check like specifically if you're looking for degrees or like cloudy take it however you want partly sunny like those types of things um i would say probably cloudy with a chance of sunshine how about that i think i say meatballs how about that that was a good one there's a chance that this could still just kind of come you see the second movie i haven't seen the first movie kind of chance meatballs is great i'm actually thinking i watch any movies i used to work at a daycare it was a great movie you should watch it you'd actually like it i'm not i'm not being serious you like what i love animated movies that's pretty good some of the best movies are just like those anyway you should watch it um so so the thing with the bills is that it's not like this huge conversation we even have to have it's do you want to play josh allen and you want to stack them with staphon digs because if you don't you don't have to worry about this offense yeah and there that is that is really not well manny sure manny to some degree but let's see what's manny's workload right like not as good as i thought okay well he's gotten 35 percent of the deep target that's three per game that's actually not that bad so i mean there's colby easily running 89 percent of the routes col col weasley over under that's actually a name never mind oh i did not mean to assign colby easily to the weasley's sorry um sorry he's got a foot in your day dot yeah i'm okay going elsewhere i think that could be a mistake but so they've all three of them have underperformed their expected workloads so they could be a bylaw opportunity i was big on buying low on staphon digs um in week two eventually it's gonna correct and so we want to take advantage of that but again for me i'm not really gonna play manny with sanders it's gonna be digs and allen for me if i think that if they were playing a more attractive opponent like they're playing washington let's say they were playing like jimmy like jimmy g or like tom rady yeah yeah jimmy g jimmy g is actually a good comp because like they could score points so actually yeah yes that's a good one i think you were joking but yes i i think that'd be a better one so there you go um derrick carves kind of degaffin it up and i love it how he's averaging 10.5 d targets per game through two weeks he was at 5.6 last year his passing any peep or drop back number is 0.38 which is top notch darin waller has 29 percent of the d targets henry rugs a second at 24 percent and i'm not saying that rugs his role is good enough to like justify using him i think it's still mostly about darin wall and there's all darin waller in this offense but like derrick carves kind of not playing bad thoughts for you on the raiders offense again up but are we ever going to play darin car in dfs no probably not but i would say the he's less of a cross off now than he was even if he's still a cross off sure the reason we're not going to play him is that he doesn't run the ball um and you have to be hyper efficient and basically throw for like 350 yards and four touchdowns to put up a huge game so cars probably out this backfields out henry rugs is a little bit interesting he had three downfield targets in week one with a almost a 17 yard a dot caught five of seven targets in week two for that 113 in the touchdown with a double digit a dot he's going to be volatile so in the right situations henry rugs is on the radar but he's like kind of a gpp bring back because we're not going to come with darin car so again it all almost just comes down to like do you want to play darin waller and the answer is going to be yes so i love i love this shift but for me it's not enough to like play darin car or yeah i think it does increase the interest in waller though because part of the reason that waller was annoying was that like you know it's like a bunch of like bunny targets but it's not that anymore yes so i'm saying arrows up on the offense arrows up for waller but even with that it's kind of still just waller and occasionally some rugs if the matchups right agreed so let's move now to look at some pace stuff that you dug up some pace and pass rate shifts what did you see in week two that caught your attention i actually just did some some pace stuff because you were talking some pass rates for the bills but um the one thing that really stood out to me was that dalis returned to a league high pace looking at their plays their offensive plays when they're pretty snap win probability was between 20 and 80 percent so kind of just weeding out those garbage plays um so they were the fastest team in week two uh they were still kind of fast playing tampa bay in week one so that's really good to see uh teams who have ranked top six in pace both weeks now include new england which even though they play fast not really appealing washington's interesting because if taylor heinecke is relevant and you know we have terry mclauren logon thomas internia gibson that could be good for bringbacks and i think that one's sticky too because washington their oc wants to play fast so i think that one's sticky as well and then atlanta um has played fast both weeks now let's help our opponents let's go take one that's i think the big the big takeaway here is that even if we don't love the offense is so much it does help the the other side of the ball now the opposite end of the spectrum teams that have ranked bottom five each week just denver and pittsburgh right now um so i know we like denver we like courtland Sutton we talked about him still a little bit of a concern here and then pittsburgh with all of their question marks another reason why nudge here is it i think 7500 is what he is a little bit hard to kind of get around um and then one other thing that jumped out to me three amps had a really small relevant sample because they blew out the bears in week one but their pass rate went from 75 percent to 52 percent in these context dependent situations in week two and their pace climbed like five seconds so the rams looked amazing in week one a little less so in week two so i'm really hoping to see how that pans out in week three against the box against the box over under 80 percent pass rate for them over okay good i agree um i'm i really hope so for that game let's finish up here with a note to future me we've kind of alluded to this out there podcast but things we want to keep in mind as we get closer to thursday because a lot of times this data is fresh in our minds may have better takeaways now than we'll have when we're further in movement so brandon what are the key takeaways for you notes to future brandon here yeah and and also just before i start like reading other information and hearing other things then i start to forget what i feel like um i'm gonna say and i think we're probably have the both of these so i'll just take one but it's gonna be playsaic one barkley i'll leave the other one for you i think playsaic one at six thousand is going to be a key for me and then also um these games are starting to separate with their over unders we kind of saw that on week two as well where week one things were a little bit tighter with the over unders and the spreads being just kind of was just natural for week one then things start to separate more we're starting to see like elite games with these 50 plus over unders i just want to make sure i'm not i'm not chasing the bad games i understand that the dalas in the chargers game wasn't all it was supposed to be but long term it's a winning strategy so i don't want to bail on that so i'm gonna be having a short player pool for my core plays with these games that have totals over 50 i think the bucks just went up to 54 and a half two uh the chief chargers game is posted at 54 and a half it's the seven point spread my cardinal rule is never to bet against patrick mahomes i think seven is a good number is what i would say that's that's what i would say my no future me is playsaic one like you said um also don't dwell too much on things that burned you last week specifically the naji harris thing with regards to sake one like don't don't get nervous in going all in on sake one because it didn't go well last week it don't get nervous about the chargers because of the way things went there there was a lot of flukeness in the way that game went down a lot of weird penalties i think that may have a bad taste in my mouth from the way that sake one went in the way that the chargers stacks went but i think or the way that naji went in the way that the chargers stacks went but i still think i can be aggressive and under salad running backs like like sake one barkley and be aggressive and stacking good games and i think that chargers game is going to be a good game so that's the notes future me for week number two that is all that we have here for today on this heat check fantasy podcast wrapping up week number two as always we are back once again on thursday though to get you set for week number three that will be live on the fandal youtube page at 10 a.m on thursday and we'll go up on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed after that so search for the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast while you're there uh hit subscribe and leave us a rating and review as well brandon if people have questions for you on twitter where can they find you there i'm at goodwill 13 gd ula 1 3 and i'm at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s you can also follow the fandal podcast network at fandal podcast we'll be have more nfl discussion here on the fandal youtube twitch facebook and twitter pages today monday at 4 p.m ryan williams and jessica gridiron will be here to preview monday night football between the packers and the lines if you want to talk some single game dfs or some betting swing by and talk to ryan and jessica at 4 p.m today but until then uh good luck with all your lineups we'll talk to you once again on thursday to get you set for week number three this has been the heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire