 What's going on and welcome to the solo shot? My name is Tom Vecchio with a five game MLB sleight tonight lock is set for 640 as always this is one of the many shows on the fable podcast network You can find that anywhere whether it's iTunes whether it's Spotify you name you can find it make sure to give it a like follow Or subscribe leave a review that we greatly appreciated the video version can be found on the fable YouTube page We found on fable TV plus and it can be found on fable comm slash watch You follow me on Twitter at Tom underscore Vecchio one before we hop into things the NFL Sunday million is now live on fable Put your NFL knowledge to the test and create your best nine-player roster while staying under the salary cap Then using fables a live scoring feature You can follow along and compete for your share of one million in prizes with first place taking home $200,000 just for $9 with your choice of stars like Christian Caffrey Debo Samuel and Darren Waller all set to take the field on September 21st There are plenty of big big names to use in your lineup Thursday is coming quickly so head over to Fandle and get your lineups in today Eligibility of shirts and apply go to Fandle.com or download the Fandle app for more details All right, let's get into tonight's five game MLB sleight again lock is set for 640 a little bit of a smaller slate tonight Also starting a bit earlier in terms of whether there's only one spot. We need to be paying attention to tonight That would be the st. Louis Cardinals They are at home hosting the Milwaukee Brewers This is an important game because we probably should be interested in both teams when it comes to stacking here So there's gonna be rain tonight Whether it starts before the game and continues into the game whether it starts at you know after the game is underway That is all yet to be seen, but there is a weather concern tonight specifically for rain for st. Louis Everything else is looking good to go. It should also be noted that the Dodgers The Dodgers Tigers game is not on this slate. So it's just the five games starting at 640 705 740 and 745 so Milwaukee st. Louis is actually pretty important tonight Just based on the fact that we probably want some hitters in that matchup Let's jump into a pitching starting off of the top where Kevin Gossman at 10.9 is the most expensive pitcher Justin Steel is 10.8. Kota Senga is 10.6. Mitch Keller is 10.2 We have four pitchers on a smaller five game slate that are all 10k and above now It's easy to say that Kevin Gossman is the best pitcher on tonight's slate Frankly, I think that both Justin Steel and Mitch Keller are a little bit too expensive for my liking especially given what we have with Kevin Gossman and just the level of Pitching and the high level of consistency along with upside that we've seen from Kevin Gossman Not only this season dating back over the past few years He comes in with a thirty one point one percent strikeout rate a seven percent walk rate 0.99 homeruns per 90 is an absolutely awesome 3.32 Sierra skill interactive VRA, and he's not allowing too much damage when it comes to fly balls or Hard contact. He's mainly a ground ball medium contact pitcher at a forty two point three percent ground ball rate at a forty six point nine percent Medium contact Ray Gossman has been the ace for Blue Jays He's can you know continuously going deeper into games outside of you know One of the one or two of these recent stars against Texas when he was four earned runs He's been known for that high strikeout upside and that's really something we should be seeing from him tonight Going up against the New York Yankees with our current active roster versus right-handed pitching the Yankees come in the twenty four point three percent strikeout Rate, which is the eighth highest in the league. They also come within 93 WRC plus and a one sixty six I so this has been the story for the Yankees all season They do not have power and they don't have consistency in their lineup compared to years past They are very much worth attacking kind of especially With a pitcher like Kevin Gosman who really can reach for that, you know ten strikeout kind of upside now Justin Steele is a really solid pitcher and I talked about him last week I think his salary is just a bit too much Given the fact, you know when we're looking at not only Kevin Gosman, but also caught a Senga tonight Steel comes on the twenty four point two percent strikeout rate And that's just not as high as what we see from Gosman or Senga You know for comparison sake Senga is at twenty nine point five percent So he can go toe to toe with Gosman and Steele really can't touch that Steele is a really really solid Real-life pitcher when it comes down to it. He is a massive massive medium contact Ground ball pitcher where he keeps the ball low limits the damage. He can cruise through innings Low walk rate all these things he can limit the damage and he piles up fantasy points by getting, you know Five six strikeouts getting the QS maybe getting the wind points But the real fantasy upside comes from the strikeouts that we have with Gosman and Senga now the matchup for Steele is certainly a favorable one. There's no doubt about it He's at home at Wrigley Field going up against the pirates the pirates coming with a twenty five point six percent strikeout rate With their current active roster versus left-handed pitching, which is the third worst in the league They also come in with an eighty five WRC plus Versus lefties in their current with their current active roster Which is 28th in the league and their ISO versus lefties not surprisingly is a 131 Team ISO, which is 29th in the league. So it's no doubt an easy matchup for Justin Steele I just don't know if we can put him as high when we're looking at a literally a $100 salary difference when Gossman's up at a 31% strikeout rate compared to Steele at 10.8 Now Senga is here at 10.6 and we're splitting hairs between These pitchers in terms of salaries and their strikeout rates against Senga is at twenty nine point five percent His walk rate is at eleven point one percent, which I certainly do not like to see But he's only one point eight one home runs per nine, which is certainly very very solid Comes on the three point nine six Sierra Fifty two percent medium contact rate forty five point three percent ground ball rate when it comes to steel is a three point six seven Sierra a Fifty five percent medium contact rate and a forty nine percent ground ball rate Also on top of the fact that Steele has a five point two percent walk rate. So Steele has a lower has a better walk rate He's you know a little bit more ground balls But it doesn't have as high of a strikeout rate Senga has a higher walk rate higher strikeout rate Etc etc etc so very very minor differences between these pitchers now Mitch Keller is at ten point two and frankly I don't have a whole lot of interest in Mitch Keller tonight. He was really good at the start of the season He kind of went through some ups and downs. He's looking better as of late, but frankly At ten point two It's not like he's the only option that we have and if you can get to ten point two You might as well just try to get up to Senga at ten point six or realistically just get up to Gossman at ten point nine So I think Gossman is I think we're dealing with the situation as we saw last night where You know Strider was awesome last night. Blake Snell was awesome last night. Luis Castillo was awesome last night They all put up these massive numbers I think Gossman we're gonna compare to Strider from last night where he's number one and then Senga and Steele are like 2a2b, you know, however you want to rank them because yes Steele doesn't have as high of a strike area Senga, but again this match up versus Pittsburgh Really should allow him to kind of reach for the strikeout ceiling that he should have so Gossman one saying to Steele 2a2b, however you want to rank them. I don't think they're that much of a difference not especially only 200 in salary apart Now the question becomes is where would you go if you're not going to one of these top pitchers because You know again, we're dealing with a smaller a Smaller five game slate. There's not a whole lot of options out here Aaron Savalli at 8300 for Tampa is probably gonna get a bit of traction today He's certainly getting the strikeouts going a bit more compared to when we saw him with Cleveland before he got traded And he also has a good matchup tonight going up against the Los Angeles angels the coming up to 25.4% strike area with their current Active roster versus righties, which is the fourth worst on legal along with an 83 WRC plus So, you know at 8300 Savalli is certainly pretty interesting tonight It's kind of a lower salary pitcher. You would look to get into your line-ups if you are going outside of this top tier So that is all pretty straightforward at pitching Gossman one Steel Senga 2a2b, however you want to go for I'm passing over Mitch Keller tonight And then if I'm going anywhere else, it would be Aaron Savalli Let's move over to stacks on tonight's late and as I said, you know, one of the main spots we want to be targeting is Really the the Milwaukee Brewers at the St. Louis Cardinals Zach Thompson will be on the mound for the St. Louis Cardinals This is his second year in the majors. He didn't have a big sample size last year only 34.2 innings He's a 56 innings sample size this year, which isn't massive You know, he's got some decent strikeout stuff with a 25.9 percent strikeout rate But he has a 9.5 percent walk rate, which is certainly very rough to see and a 353 babbitt Batting average of balls in play. He's only going 0.96 homeruns per nine. So what does this all mean? It means that He's not giving up a massive amount of fly balls. He's not giving up You know all these homeruns whatever might be and he's allowing runners on base for fruit at 9.5 percent walk rate And then once they get on base It's like the pitcher that gives up a single here a walk a double a single a walk And that's where we see some run production from, you know, his opponents So Milwaukee is a team that doesn't have a massive power upside and they don't have a ton of, you know, homerun hitters They have a few good ones, but I think they fit the profile well good against Zach Thompson Again, the issue here is is coming down to the rain. Will this game be played? Will they postpone it? You know, I will say I'm optimistic that they play it even if there is rain They'll just wait through the delay Frankly, given the fact that there's a week and a half left in the MLB season Like we're running out of days or there's basically no days left for them to really make up these games So I'd be somewhat optimistic that they just go with a delay And then they do end up playing just because they kind of need to get this game in and they have to get this game in So that's really where I'm looking when it comes to You know Milwaukee hitters and the same thing can be said about St. Louis. We'll get to them in a second So when it comes to Milwaukee Again, I've talked about them recently in some of these recent shows where they're good because no one on their roster is Super super expensive Christian Yellish at 3.3k is the most expensive Hitter for the Brewers and we know he was not in the lineup yesterday That means William Contreras at 3200 is the most expensive hitters So this really opens up a whole lot when it comes to roster construction in terms of who we want to be Uh, you know going with when we're trying to pay up for Gossman or Senga or steel Whatever might be when it comes to pitching and for Milwaukee, they're gonna have adrian hauser on the mound another pitch I think we can very much look to attack with the Cardinals who still have a good offense, you know Whether their record shows it or not like they still have a pretty solid offense And frankly adrian hauser is not a pitcher you should be worried about in really any capacity He comes with a 19.6 strike every which is below the league average only is a 6.7 Walk rate, which is one of the or which is the best of his entire career over the past two years It was over 10 the two years prior. It was over 8 percent. So he is really not a very Um, you know high strikeout or super controlled pitcher on the mound where he lets runners on base are free He's also allowing 1.13 homerans per nine. He has a 4.45 skill interactive eRA this season And we also see how they're coming in with a 3 36 Babbitt batting average of balls and play So it's kind of the same story where we have pitchers that just get hit around a lot They get babbitt to death, which is single double walk single double walk whatever might be And that does provide prevent Does provide a lot of fantasy upside for the opposing team in this case would be the cardinals So i'd be more inclined to go to the cardinals tonight if I had to choose Between one of these two teams either milwaukie or st. Louis Frankly because i'm just a little more confident and have a little more trust in some of the hitters from st Louis specifically because if the brewers are not going to be having yellets in their line If that's just a factually weaker lineup and I'd rather roll with goldschmidt aeronado newt bar You know tom yedman jordan jordan walker like some of these hitters that are a little bit more proven compared to some of the hitters On the brewers and yes getting up to goldschmidt aeronado newt bar would be a great one two three stack For the cardinals. So again, um cautiously optimistic given the Rain uh, you know the potential for rain in this game just because again They kind of have to get this game in as we're getting to the closing portion of the season And then when it comes to this game specifically i'm going to be siding slightly with st Louis just based on the hitters that they have and really goldschmidt at 3600 isn't that expensive in aeronados at 3.3 k So we're not dealing with any hitters that are super super expensive tonight and it really should Uh, I would say ease line of instruction overall and again if you want to drop further down And take some of these hitters depending on who's in and out of their lineup that can be done Uh, you know jordan walker, I certainly like the power upside and him as a prospect overall at 2800 He's probably gonna be a key part of it because he he's in the middle of their lineup His salary is not too expensive and that power is certainly there for him Now we also should be looking at the tampa bay raised tonight If you're at home, they're going up against redetmers for the los angeles angels Detmer certainly has some my strikeout upside be also has some issues with walks He has some issues with home runs. He has some issues with hard contact surprise surprise Is a pretty easy profile of pitcher. We should be attacking 25.8 strike a rate of solid 9.1 walk rate is not he comes with a 4.15 sierra He's allowing a 40.6 fly ball rate this season along with a 36.2 hard contact rate and a 322 Babbit so sure some strikeouts could certainly be there for detmers as he's kind of shown Throughout the course of his career But also the walks and the home runs are going to continue to be an issue for him And when we have a lineup such as tampa This is a lineup that can certainly take advantage of that with the power that they have Diaz a rosarina lau lau paderis you name it. We have plenty of options up at the top when it comes to Tampa Bay raise and they're on the slightly more expensive side Especially if you try to get up to both Diaz and a rosarina at 36 and 3500 But that's something I should certainly be looking to do Diaz comes in with a 283 iso In this split versus lefties and is absolutely one of my favorite players on tonight's slate given Everything that we have in terms of a salary his matchup The fact that it is a five game slate and we're kind of star for true true power upside hitters Diaz for the raise is going to be one of my favorite options tonight So detmers is certainly a pitcher that we should be looking to stack against tonight I'm not worried about the angels bullpen and frankly. I'm going to be very very confident rolling with the raise as a stack if you want to roll with the You want to roll with the cubs again because your cubs again as we saw their power upside last night You're trying to take leverage against a pitcher like mitch keller who could be popular I certainly think that's viable to do so especially on You know small or slight you're just taking pictures or hitters going up against what could be popular pitchers So i'm certainly on board for that It's pretty good at core at wriggly field. I should say there's no course fields in it But should be good at wriggly fields in terms of hitting conditions So i'm certainly interested in some cubs hitters as well And again, mitch keller has been a bit up and down this season In terms of his pitching consistency And i'll take the cubs who you know kind of need that that offense in a tight wild card race I don't think they can make the nl central anymore, but they can certainly do something in the nl wild card So when it comes to Dinger calls to kind of close things out tonight I'm going to be going with andy ds as I said one of my favorite hitters 283 iso in this matchup Versus lefties the power upside that he has is very very clear Cody bellinger hit a home run last night don't want to be going there I actually want to be going to nolan aeronado for st Louis obviously there's a bit of rain concern in this game So if you want to pivot away from aeronado you could certainly be looking to someone like eon hap tonight for the chicago cubs A switch hitter and again, he's been pretty solid at the plate as of late a couple of these recent games putting on multi-hit performances He's kind of locked in and again. I'm not too worried about mitch keller in terms of what he can do on the mound Smaller five games late again, it locks at 640 That has done it for today's podcast has always been found on apple podcasts. We found on spotify You can find it on the fendle youtube page You can find it on fendle tv plus you can find it on fendle.com slash watch You can follow me on twitter at tom underscore vecchio one until next time. Good luck in your contest