 Aloha and welcome to Figments on Reality. I'm Dan Leif. I go by Fig, best of the name. And today we're going to talk about the harsh realities of 2022. What a cheery topic. It might not be that bad. I do want to tell you that season two episode five is the final episode of Figments on Reality per se. I'm still going to do Figments, the power of imagination, but reduce the frequency to every two weeks because what I simply can't handle it. I have too many other things to do. One of them is the first harsh reality I'll talk about in today's show. So I'll appear every other week starting next week with figments the power of imagination as the title, but we will interspersed commentary as we do. Occasionally, I have shows that are devoted entirely to commentary on an event. I'm sure the world will provide us plenty to talk about in 2022. And that commentary will continue in the on reality vein apolitical even in a midterm election year, because I don't like to muddy what I think with political leanings because my leanings aren't political there, but how the country in the world can work and should work. And of course I try not to be vitriolic, vitriolic, especially during the holiday season. And I hope you all have joyous wonderful holiday seasons whatever holidays you celebrated and ready for a new year, and I wish you a blessed and happy new year. I hope you had a blessed and happy holiday season in New Year, because we have a new member of the family that's right. There's a cementure schnauzer the newest member of the family. He's a blast. As you can see by the cloud he's a puppy of destiny when when your profiles in the sky you must be a special dog. And of course everybody's dog is special to the family. And it's been a really wonderful family endeavor to do all the things that come with puppies and those of you have experienced it know exactly what I'm talking about. But he's a blast keeps us busy in will make the new year. Pretty exciting now I'm going to get on to my harsh realities in a second but let me tell you, these are not predictions there are realities that may present themselves but they're what I think are the most important potentialities on the horizon. The only, I'll make one prediction okay I will step away from that, not one of my harsh realities. I predict that Brandon will not be the most popular boys name for babies born in 2022, regardless of the political leanings of the family, I just think that's a lot. Okay harsh realities. My harsh reality is, I have to write a book. I've been encouraged to write a book for a long time you know I have opinions and some stories and no amazing people, many of whom appeared on figments, the power of imagination. And Alejandra my wife and others have encouraged me to write a book I've been reluctant because I know my memory is not perfectly accurate. Also, I don't want to write something that will be self aggrandizing or gloss over my flaws, and frankly the writing of this book has been a wonderful time for reflection. Both success and failure and maybe the most helpful and looking back at failures and things that I could have done better and hope to do better in the future. It's a collection of stories and the titles going to be at least tentatively stories I tell myself because while I'm a storyteller and do it from podiums and over beers and things like that. And really the stories I tell to myself to reinforce what I've learned and to form or adjust my life view so they're important to me in that regard I've had an amazing journey from a small town in Wisconsin, to being a senior officer and an Air Force to the things I've gotten to do after that including figments. So I'd like to give you an example and I might do this every week I'm up to about 50 pages. Here's an example of one of the stories when I was talking about my matriculation to Air Force pilot training, and through the university with much difficulty and everything else so here's the last paragraph before I set off for Air Force pilot After college graduation, I had to wait almost seven months before reporting for active duty. I made ends meet with two genuine crap jobs might have said it differently in the book. The first was of the equine variety mucking stalls on an Arabian horse breeding ranch in exchange for rental of the small farmhouse. I'm not a fan of horses anyway, and my experience at the end at that end of the business hardened my dislike. Little did I know that shoveling horse manure was perfect preparation for to for a job in the Pentagon, decades later. So now I'm sure you're excited you'll buy the book if I finished the book. And if somebody publishes book, fun to write a good exercise and hard work, but worthy work. All right, what is my harsh reality number two I talked about this way back on December 6. It's the end of the pandemic folks, trust me on this, the end of the pandemic. I'm a crime represents the end of the pandemic, because it is so contagious, so well countered by vaccines and relatively mild. Okay, so it's the end of the pandemic. But letting that pandemic and this pandemic and is something that some people are going to fork. I think the authorities will be reluctant for a variety of reasons and perhaps slow to recognize that it's over, and we should return to whatever the new normal is. And additionally, there are two powerful groups that will work to continue the pandemic one are those companies that stand to make money the pharmaceuticals and others and hey it's business I'm not calling them evil I'm just saying why would you want cash cow to croak. And another, frankly, our interest groups like unions, who rightly or wrongly are reluctant to return to a fully functioning economy. In other words, normal work from the normal workplace. And surely there'll be some adjustments to methods of work in the future but these groups for out of interest of protecting their workers are because the workers have become accustomed to either not working or working at home are going to fight a return to normal and we can see that today where the federal government has mandated total telework in Washington DC. This is the end of the pandemic folks and we're reacting in the wrong way. The one thing that Omicron has illustrated that should have been kind of obvious to those in power responsible for making broad decisions is the value of self testing. I think we could have limited the spread and sped the treatment of COVID-19 long ago with deployment of self testing assets so you knew if you had it and you didn't have to go stand in line at the pharmacy or as we saw at the mall. This weekend. You find out you have COVID you stay home if you're at risk or feeling very badly you get treatment ASAP. It may be obvious to me but we're still behind the power curve and then I don't see the government getting this done in with sufficient rapidness, if you will. So, we shouldn't go crazy. But it is time to recognize that COVID has become the common COVID is morphed into an endemic and tolerable melody, and we've got to get on with it. Let's do that. Unfortunately, related to the pandemic is my next harsh reality and that is continued economic malaise. I do not see the US or global economy getting better during 2022. I just don't think it's going to happen. We're going to be very slow to transition back to a normal vibrant economic environment. Even when we do that we're going to have to pay some government bills for the assistance that was provided, and some of the money that was wasted in response to the pandemic and inflation and under employment are going to continue. So that isn't a recipe for rapid economic recovery. And that failure to have a rapid economic recovery is going to feed the very next harsh reality. And that's political chaos and I may talk more about this than any other one. I believe 2022 will hold extraordinary or feature extraordinary political chaos in the United States. We're already in troubled waters with the broad divides between other Republican and Democrat parties and the various philosophies, if you will, that are counterproductive and keep the government from getting anything done that needs to be done. I see that with the build back better failure and other problems. As I've mentioned in the past we have an extraordinarily unpresent unpopular president for the second time in a row in a row with an equally at least unpopular vice president, which means there'll be a lack of, and this is not a political comment it's an observation on how things are working. A lack of cohesiveness and coherence and one side. And then the other side the Republicans conservatives whatever label you prefer are going to be scrambling to make the most of the opportunity that the bad economy and and Democrat dysfunction provides them and that will be a Republican world. And so we're going to see tremendous chaos. There's another bit of potential political chaos that that I don't wish for and I hope I'm wrong about this but now President Biden is not a young man at times he has not looked particularly vibrant or vital in public. And there's no guarantee that 2022 doesn't hold some sort of a physical crisis for the president. That's bad enough we have a transition plan we've transitioned in the past as a result of assassination and illness. As I said we've got an extraordinarily unpopular vice president, rightly or wrongly, not judging but this sets the stage for added to all the other issues in our political system right now. If there's such a crisis, it's going to be very chaotic chaotic and that chaos is bad for the United States we have things to do we have government things to do with budgets to pass. To enable return to a vibrant economy. And if our political system isn't working becomes that much more difficult and thus unlikely. So that worries me, but it's also worrisome because it can provide a window of opportunity for those who think differently than us on the international stage, and perceived weakness or paralysis in the American system can can encourage bad behavior by others on the world's world stage, and this should be very concerning to all of us. I'll have to get to what would fig do at the end I haven't prepared that because I intended to think through it as I talked to you all. There are things we can do. So that political chaos could be very, very problematic to say the least. Quick break to talk about my next episode of segments the power of imagination, I've got a really cool guest lined up. Ricky Ellison two time Super Bowl champion won a national championship. Ricky's football team is a very interesting guy. He is the CEO president director of the missile defense advocacy agency kind of an unlikely role. His story is a great one and Ricky's agreed to be my guest and talk about his amazing journey from New Zealand to now Washington DC with a quick stop on the field of battle in the NFL. So I'm sure you'll enjoy that. I really look forward to having him on the show. Okay, back to harsh realities. Next, this one should make me happy, right. I've advocated since 2017 for an end of war agreement on the Korean Peninsula. Let me remind you the Korean War ended with an armistice, not a peace treaty, not a true end to the conflict, but a pause. It's been a really long pause. And in my mind the armistice should be replaced with some agreement that ends the war. There are those that say that the, this is dangerous, you know, we're rewarding North Korea for bad behavior it's a victory, whatever. And solve the problems on the Korean Peninsula, the divide between the two Koreas, the nuclear tensions, when the first sentence in any discussion about the Korean Peninsula starts with technically still at war. So I firmly believe that even with the attendant risk. There will be an end of war agreement. The South Koreans have been pushing for this and have publicly said that they've reached an agreement in principle with the United States to move forward on an end of war agreement. Guess what, not happening. Why is it not happening or not going to have the necessary effect, because the Biden administration has shown its disinterest in the Korean Peninsula. The dual role special representative on North Korea matters and we don't even have an ambassador nominated a year later to be our ambassador in Seoul to the Republic of Korea South Korea. I think it's a pretty important place I think ambassador roles and I've said this before on figments are extraordinarily important. And if I were to be president, not happening. 2022 or any other time. The first thing I do is work to get a slate of qualified ambassadors in place around the world. There are key executors of foreign policy. I mean they do a lot of work in Washington DC. And the Secretary of State does a lot of traveling and meetings and talking and the President meets with senior leaders but the hard work is done by the country team led by a qualified investor. The fact that we haven't even nominated a replacement for Ambassador Harry Harris in Seoul. And of course he departed at the end of the administration. Shows we're not interested and make convinces me that even though we have a chance to make extraordinary progress in with regard to the matters on the Korean Peninsula. It's highly unlikely because we don't have anybody there to do it. It's a tragedy. And it's not just a tragedy because we have a chance to make the world safer by lessening the likelihood of conflict in Korea. We have a chance to help the long suffering people of North Korea, and that should be as much motivation as solving the nuclear crisis. Bad news. Good news turn to bad news by inaction or disinterest. Next on my hip parade of harsh realities boy there's going to be a conflict somewhere. And I think it's an unforeseen conflict I'm not ruling out the potential for Chinese military action against Taiwan or some other escalation in the Taiwan Straits or around the Taiwan, or Russia or Ukraine those could happen but my view is that we are always surprised. That somewhere an internal or external conflict will erupt, and will be big enough to demand the attention of the great powers and maybe the intervention of the great powers. I don't know what it will be Miramar is certainly looking. Magic, as I've said in past shows, but there are plenty of other places for unrest and conflict. And I don't think 2022 is going to be different than most years in that regard. And my final art reality, also mentioned previously is another pandemic, but not a viral pandemic, but a cyber pandemic. We've seen, as I mentioned before, pretty large scale cyber intrusions cyber fraud theft and disruption. And it's only going to get worse. The, it's going to get worse and I view 2022 as a turning point where hopefully the world, both government and in business will take more seriously the cyber threat, not just in bitcoins and cyber currencies, but in business the ability to conduct business, and so on, and also in life, because a cyber attack on a power grid, or a banking system will disrupt input at risk human life. It's a very luck outlook for 2022 but that's not really how I feel I just think that we need to be realistic about what we get ready for what we ponder both personally and collectively, going into the new year so let's take a look back at these and let's talk about what big do. I'm going to go to the list okay right the book I'm going to write some more today I've already done some my wife has the first 50 pages for review. I'm going to get it done, and get that harsh reality, realized the end of the pandemic, you have a voice. And both the voice and, and your actions to make this the end of the pandemic as I said, it's not time to go nuts to be careless, but it is a time to live with an endemic disease, while taking appropriate risk and pushing to return to normal. Call your representatives call your mayors call you whomever get vaccinated, get a self test kit. That's on my to do list, but let's get after aggressively or number three there not number. The economic noise will only deepen. That again, we have a voice. Citizens should argue for a revitalization of the economy for reopening of those bit businesses that are still or again closed. Again with adequate safeguards, but we can't sit and say well this is just the way it is. It isn't the way it is anymore. Things have changed the common coven less, less lethal, less debilitating and easily countered by protected measures and vaccination being the most important protective measure, the way we've got to end the pandemic to limit the economic noise. As for the political chaos, what would fig do. Oh boy, I don't have an easy answer for that one folks it's not. There, they're, this is a long term valley in American political performance on optimistic that over time as we have often done in the past will return to a fully functioning democracy with more collaborative effort. And better sense of commitments to things other than reelection or political advantage. But it's going to be a while. So, all I can say is, again, communicate with those you've elected to represent you insist on action, the fast budgets to, to enact or enforce laws that work to maintain the role of law, do their jobs and they don't don't do their jobs. There's a midterm election coming up and change that as you evaluate candidates in that midterm election. Please look beyond ideology. I have views I have things that I believe in politically, but the thing I believe in most is competence. I believe in for politicians is commitment seeing what they say and what they actually do during a campaign. We need representatives who are competent in cooperating and governing as part of a body, and who are committed to a higher level, the nation and its citizens, the city and its residents, the state and its residents, more than they are to a donkey or an elephant or a color. So insist on that and vote for the, on the end of war agreement. Well, I'm going to keep writing and talking about that. If you're interested, please do the same. We have an ambassador in the South Korea and we've got to take advantage of this opportunity to make some real progress and we have to be willing to take some risk to do that. I'll say that in print and to our elected officials. If you share my view, please join me in doing that. What you can do to be ready for unforeseen conflict because it's unforeseen, other than to know that it will come and that a competent US response as part of the world community is very important and the US response should encourage peaceful resolution first and armed conflict should only be entered as the absolute last resort. It has become too easy to engage in so called limited conflict. I would assert that it's not limited when you're at the ground center point of a target, or it's your country or your village. But with drone warfare and other risk free options. It has become too easy for the United States standard conflict and we should solve them not start them. And finally cyber pandemic. The, you do have a personal role, change your passwords make sure they're good passwords, ensure that your protective software is in place and updated I'm not recommending a particular vendor, but this is serious stuff. Look at your apps look at your banks know what's being done with your privacy. So, I said hey happy 2022, it will be happy 2022. We always have problems deal with one of the things that irritates me the most when I play grumpy old man and tell people to get off my lawn. I don't do I certainly don't tell ace the wonder dog to get off my lawn. One thing that does irritate me is that we tend to assume we've got it worse than anybody else has, we don't, it's going to be a difficult year, the pandemic has been difficult hasn't been the depression. It hasn't been the Spanish food epidemic it hasn't been a world war. And we are much blessed in the United States, I think, especially blessed not because we're special but we're pretty darn lucky. And we ought to appreciate that and be use those blessings to make the world a better place and not sit there whining on Facebook or Instagram or anything else about how tough we've got it, because we don't have it that tough. It's great, as long as we make it right. So let me close by saying thanks, as always to think tech, think tech why is a nonprofit corporation that needs your support. I made my end of your donation, please make your start of your donation or sometime during the year, you're going to find some content you like on think tech why so go to their website and check it out. If you want to watch mine on think tech or YouTube or Vimeo, please click like, there's no make your host feel better. So best wishes for 2022 don't let the harsh realities here you enjoy your life and your year. And I'll see you in next week on figments the power of imagination.