 Hi, this is Dr. Don. This is another video in the Monte Carlo simulation series. On this one, I'm just going to focus on how to use the triangle distribution calculator I provided on some of the problems. Excel does not have a built-in function to calculate either the probability under a triangular distribution or of course the X value, the random variable value that generates that probability. If you have a more expensive software package such as crystal ball or at risk, those have these built-in triangular distributions but Plano Excel doesn't. Unfortunately, many business decisions you see the only information available is in the form of a low estimate, a high estimate, and most likely sometimes it's called worst case, best case, most likely case. It's very common in business. So I built this calculator and I have another video that shows the theory behind the calculator and and how triangular distributions work. This video is just on how to use that little calculator that I'm providing. Looking back at our outsourcing decision model, previously we just had two variables that were randomly varying and that was the demand under normal distribution and the UVC, the unit variable cost we also had under a normal in this particular spreadsheet. Now I'm adding the outsourced unit cost OUC as a triangular distribution with a low estimate of $150, a high estimate of $185, and a most likely estimate of $165. Here's the little calculator that I created and that I'm providing on some models and you have to input the low most likely and high values. They can be in dollars, they can be in percent if you're looking at inflation or increases in prices but despite it they have to be consistent and you've got to put it in this pattern. Low, medium, high, and I've labeled those A1, C1, and B1 so that that'll help you do your modeling. The calculator outputs the cumulative probability distribution that's everything to the left. If you think of our traditional curves and you'll understand that better when you see the other video associated with the triangular distribution but I also have included a formula that will do the inverse of that, takes that probability and gives us the X value which is what we need in this particular case. With that said I took the value here in this cell which is the output cell and linked that up here to the OUC and then of course redid the spreadsheet. You can see the OUC goes down here to the random variable. The random variable uses all four of those inputs and then over here of course my OAC links back here so from there to there to there to the random. Remember we've got to have all the variables that are we want to randomize in our data table and so I'm just going to stop there you know how to create the data table for now on. So that's how to use the triangular distribution. I hope this helps.