 Okay, traders, that's 2 p.m. UK time and we are going to get going here this week's live trade analysis session with me Patrick Munlow. If you can hear me and you can see the Tick Mail welcome screen, you can just type Y in the chat box so I know that we are good to get going here. Good stuff. Okay, so before we jump into today's content, as always, we want to adhere to the risk disclaimer. Most importantly for today's discussion, the views and opinions expressed by me are solely mine and they're not indicted above all representative of those held by Tick Mail UK Limited or Tick Mail Europe Limited. One point of housekeeping before we continue guys is that if you do have any questions with respect to any of the charts I cover or anything to do, additionally to do with trading, you can make a note of those and I'll open up a Q&A at the end of the session to cover off any questions. Okay, so for those of you here for the first time, a brief introduction to myself. After I graduated from university, I joined a city PLC consulting firm. I left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found and exit a consulting startup. Having a front row seat in the dot com bubble, witnessing people make and lose the fortune of the markets quite literally overnight, I decided to explore my curiosity for markets with some capital to play with and some time in my hands, I started day trading the S&P 500 or more appropriately, day gambling. After some early beginners' luck, I racked up some pretty solid gains. However, as is often the case, my beginners' luck ran out and as the market phase changed, I began to average down into positions, ultimately giving back all my gains and experiencing a significant six-figure financial hit. To say this was a gut wrenching and sobering experience is another statement. I really had to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the markets. So I decided to get serious about trading and sort out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. Working with my mentor for a period of 18 months to two years, I upped not just my technical gain in terms of developing a strategy that suits my personality, researching and extensively back and forward testing strategies, all of which were underpinned by a rigorous risk management approach. But most importantly, during the period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game. And probably most importantly, I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal-orientated individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely process-orientated. So what does that mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy, oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process orientated and you have a professional trading mindset and you understand the true nature of trading being a numbers game in which we're simply playing the probabilities, you lose the emotional investments and hellish emotional rollercoaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. So I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or a small string of trades. My focus is on the next 100 trades because I know if I focus on excellence in execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over the extended series of outcomes. My multi-strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. Since 2013, I've also been managing investor capital through a managed account service, delivering annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multi-million portfolio. Since 2010, I've mentored hundreds of private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to reach consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring, I'm also a resident market expert for TITML, exclusively providing market and trade analysis through their blog. And you can register for updates for my daily market outlook through putting your email address on their site and you'll get those delivered to your inbox. I guess my other passion project is leading trader education for a premier trading education brand called FXcareerswap.com. At FXcareerswap, we offer development and funding to retail trading time. We don't just develop retail traders market and trading strategy knowledge, we work on mindset development through a structured programme that culminates in managing the firm's capital at zero personal financial risk on a profit share basis. So that gives you a sense of where it is I'm coming from. Now what I want to do is jump into the charts and we're going to start with taking a look here at the S&P 500, we're on the looking at the daily timeframe. And so where we're at at the moment is that we are seeing the potential here for the prices to stall out at this 4230 level. We're seeing a bit of a reversal to today heading into the cash session open. What we are looking for, what I'll be initially looking for now is a test of this monthly pivot at 4157. If we can get a reversal from there, then I see the potential for another high into tomorrow, into the non-farm payrolls data. And from there, timing suggests that we should then see a pull back, certainly to test the ascending trend line support at 4131, weekly range support 4100. But maybe something a bit more pronounced as we head into next week. From a timing perspective, this period heading into the back end of tomorrow and the middle part of next week is a window where we could see a bit of volatility in the market. So we want to pay attention to one, can we hold the monthly pivot today? If we don't, then the period or the window of perceived volatility could already be open. And if that's the case, what we would be looking at would be an equality objective versus this swing high, which would actually put us back down into 4029 as the target zone if we don't see a recovery in prices today. So it's going to be very important to see how we trade at the cash session opens, 230 UK time to see if we can hold the pivot and get that new high and then see prices roll over a bit into the back end of the week and beginning of next week. NASDAQ looks a bit weaker at the moment. It's actually sitting on the monthly pivot now. So if we get a close through there today, and that sets up an equality objective versus the current potential B wave high here at 13792 down to 12659 will be the downside equality objective that we'll be targeting if we close through the monthly pivot and get a bearish close here. Similarly with Dow Jones, looks like it got a pinbar set, a pinbar posted midweek and we now look like we could be rolling over here. Again, what we're focused on or the pivotal area now is going to be this monthly pivot test. If we can hold the monthly pivot, then again we can see, we can still have the potential to see one more high before rolling over, but if we don't hold the monthly pivot, then short positions will be warranted and what we'll be looking for again is the equality objective versus the swing structure there, which will actually put us down into the new monthly range support at 33,000, just above 33,000. So these closes there are going to be pivotal. DAX also rolling over from its potential double top scenario here. Not as clean, the price action isn't as clean as it is in these US indices. So I'm going to focus on those, the Nikkei weakest of the lot really and has still failed to actually recover in terms of how the other indexes have been performing. So if we roll over today, then I'd be looking for the Nikkei to trade lower into, we've held that one, let's have a look at this one from here. So we could see the Nikkei trading down into the 26,000 level versus the last swing structure. The VIX, obviously the volatility index, we anticipate when markets are rolling over that the VIX is going to pop and we're seeing a bit of a pop here. I was actually looking for the VIX to make a new low into this trend line support at the 14.4 level, but we are seeing the VIX spike up. So if the VIX equally can hold its monthly pivot as resistance, then we could still see that next level to the downside before seeing what I anticipate is going to be a spike into next week. Moving into the dollar, this is the equal weighted dollar index. Obviously as we see a bit of risk aversion coming to the markets, the dollar picks up a little bit here. Let's clean the price action I think is in the broader dollar index. So this is the dollar index versus a basket of six currencies. So what I've been looking for is the dollar index to hold the monthly pivot and then make a new low tomorrow. I did potentially into this job state. So if we're going to blow out number tomorrow in terms of the job status far exceeding expectations, then what that's from a market dynamic perspective and from a thematic perspective that should bring the Fed back into discussion with respect to tapering. So at the moment obviously the rhetoric has been they're not even thinking about tapering, but I think if we see a blow out jobs number tomorrow and we see some weakness heading into that from the dollar and maybe we just take out those prior loans, but with all this momentum divergence we've got, then I see the potential for a correction in terms of this dollar index. Gold, at the resistance area, I'm looking for a pullback in gold now for gold to test 1860, the ascending trend line support and the monthly pivot here, but what should bullish reversal plans from that area to set long positions looking for a test of 1960 in terms of gold silver. Silver's breaking down a bit here now. If again if we get a close through the monthly pivot here in silver, then we could have the potential for a three-way corrected move here back into, let's just draw this in, so I've been looking for a move back into this 26th level to set longs from there for the next leg to the upside. What you want to be focusing on is gold really, as long as gold holds its support then it should take silver with it, so watch that 1860 level in terms of gold. Crude is coming into resistance here. I posted this as a chart of the day earlier. Watching this 7060 level where we've got this potential broadening pattern developing, what should bearish reversal patterns from the trend line resistance 71 and weekly range resistance at 7060. I think that's a decent opportunity on the short side in terms of crude. Looking for a three-way corrected move into the ascending trend line support at 64 before setting a base there for the next leg to the upside. Copper also starting to roll over here, so whilst we hold the 470 59 level then we have an equality injected now 42505 and then from there we could easily see the next leg to the upside. This is the level to pay attention to 402505 and watch for bullish reversal patterns there. I think that should set the base for the next leg of upside in terms of copper. Bitcoin, so I was talking about this symmetry swing resistance at the 43200 level. We didn't really test it and now we've got another potential pattern developing here, so we have this leg here versus this leg versus this leg, so that will be the equality objective and that now broadly coincides with the symmetry swing resistance. So this level is going to be pivots on now, even if we see some strength here in terms of Bitcoin, watch for the confidence at the 43,880 level. Bearish reversal patterns there and I still think we've got to run at the 20,000 yearly pivot before we try and put in a more meaningful base. The Dali Yuan has really been driving this dollar story. People's Bank of China have come out this week and want to remove the notion that it's a one-way trade and they've put in some effects reserve requirements for national banks. So I'm looking for the Dali Yuan obviously in line with the dollar index to put in a base here and for us to trade higher. Again, we've got that significant momentum divergence, so once we can get through this trend line resistance, the monthly pivot weekly range resistance 641, I think we've got a clear run then to 650 in terms of the Dali Yuan. Still hugging this trend line, didn't break down, it looked like it was going to but we didn't get consecutive closes and so now the upside objective versus the current swing structure is actually 110.85 before we would look for potential some weakness in the Dali Yuan. Swissy, so we have a potential inverse head and shoulders scenario here. We've taken out the trend line resistance. All I'm waiting for really now is a close through 1930 set long positions and certainly we can start to think about a move up to 91.80 or 92 before we'd see it, before that becomes a decision point for the markets where I think we'd rather roll over from there and make new loans or we could be talking about putting in a more meaningful bottom here and looking for further upside. So looking for that close through the monthly pivot 1930, 1935, I like long positions in the dollar Swiss. Looney still going nowhere fast here and this is kind of a story in a bunch of these markets at the moment. We've been in a period of exceptionally low volatility but as I said last week that low volatility begets higher volatility and I anticipate we're heading into that phase now, the back end of this week, the early to middle part next week. So we have to see can the Looney breakthrough range resistance here 121.50 and get a move up into 124, the descending trend line resistance would be the play there. Euro continues to hold trend line support. I'm looking for the euro to break 121.50 and for that to set up a corrected phase back down into the 120 zone. So just waiting to see if we can get a close through that monthly pivot there to see some further downside in terms of the euro and again that's all I'm talking about is a correction at this stage. Certainly we hold 120 and then it will be time to think about looking for bullish reversal patterns to get in on the long side to take out these prior cycle highs at 123.50. Euro yen, so the euro yen squeezing in this ascending wedge again if we're going to see some volatility into next week then I think that we should that should also play out in these yen pairs and I'm looking for them to break to the downside for some corrective action. Don't have any confirmations yet. The euro yen is serving on to see it close through the weekly pivot there 133.47 before thinking about getting in on the short side. Euro Swiss still looking for that 109.05 test before looking for a corrective, for looking for a resumption really on the upside in terms of euro Swiss. I think we could be in line to see that in the coming sessions so pay attention to 109.05 in the euro Swiss. Euro sterling, I was looking for this to to break the one at the 86.50 to see some attempt at the resistance cluster here 88, 11 to 88.30 but still can't find its legs here but whilst we hold above 85.60 there is still the potential that we see that 88 so we'll have to see if we can get some some positive closes on euro sterling. Euro CAD, still again looking for a three-wave corrective pattern to play out here but we're not getting any bullish reversal at this stage so there's nothing for me to do at this juncture in the euro CAD. Euro Kiwi, I was in and out of this looking for looking for it to break higher but again in this lower volatility which is not quite seen the follow-through at the moment and so we want to wait for the volatility to pick up before re-engaging but it does look poised to get to make a test here of the quality objective versus the WX pattern here 166 up to the 172 handle that's slow going at the moment. Sterling, I'm looking for sterling to ultimately break down here I think we've got this major double top and a bunch of momentum divergence but again just in terms of this lower volatility at the moment it's very slow going but if we can take out the support at 140, 140 80 and certainly we can be down at 130, 980 and I think probably lower than that in terms of sterling before we can think about more upside so I'd be thinking in terms of certainly a 130 9 test maybe monthly range support 138 20 before the next leg to the upside but again need to see that that monthly pivot go up 140 80 to to see things developed to the downside. Sterling again again with these yens if if we start to see some weakness in terms of risk sentiment next week and until it's making a roll over certainly pay attention to bearish reversal patterns into the 156 20 weekly range resistance 156 60 but nothing nothing right now sterling CAD this one could still be looking to put in a corrective phase here to if we can break through 170 170s and I think there's a run potential equal leg setup there so this type of scenario to test the 173 25 but again there's a heavy rotation within the range here at the moment so tricky going sideways gain in the Aussie but the momentum now is looks to be shifting to the downside here again but you know we've been trading in this 76 80 to you know 100 pit range in the Aussie since the beginning of May so really to see that break to the downside so through the 76 70s would be an opportunity on the short side and the target equality objective versus that swing high at 78 94 will be 74 19 and like I said momentum is starting to to roll over a bit here and we've had we've had a bunch of bearish trending handle development so just need to see the support go on a closing basis to to look at short positions Aussie yen again can't really get bearish on this until we take out this trend line support at the 84 19 but again if we are going to see some risks some height and risk next week then we've still got plenty of momentum divergence and a potential double top here and we could see this break down but nothing to do just yet Aussie Swiss this one looking for longs but again we're just trading in this very choppy range here so sidelines for an hour will need to take needed to take out the 69 80s to look for an extension higher into the top side there 71 30s will be the target range there the CAD another one been watching maybe we're going to get the roll over here so looking for a test of 92 59 which is the equality objective versus the 97 62 high also got the yearly pivot weekly range support so if we can get down into this area and get bullish reversal patterns I like I like the long side then in terms of the Aussie CAD now to the Kiwi so Kiwi now sitting on this major trend line support from last last March Lowe's if we take that out on a closing basis then we need to be thinking about a short side in terms of the Kiwi like to see the psychic indicators flip red as well but a close through this 71 80 level will start to put focus on the downside in terms of Kiwi and the quality objective versus the 73 16 high is that 68 level so plenty to play for in terms of the downside in the Kiwi there Kiwi again need to take out the trend line support really before looking on the on the short side in terms of Kiwi again Kiwi Swiss nothing to do there nothing in the Kiwi CADs so Swiss yen looking for it to break down here so it's struggle at trend line support it's sitting at its trend line resistance so just looking some bearish closes here and I think we can certainly be thinking about a retest of 120 from above the other one that I'm watching closely is the CAD yen squeezing here so looking for a closing breach of this trend line support to set up a corrected move I think we can retest these the breakout higher here from that 88 30 level so monthly raise support at 88 43 so those are the charts that I'm watching and I guess the key message here is watching to see how we close today in terms of these equity markets if we close week today and we roll over then I would anticipate that we're in for a period of weakness probably into the middle part to the middle part of next week and that will give opportunities in a bunch of these yen pairs and and to play the dollar basically from the long side for at least a corrective move is is my game plan okay are there any questions if you have a question you can type it in the chat box or a chart you want me to take a look at I haven't covered you'll say type that in the chat box equally if you don't have a question and I've you've understood everything I've said if you type a an N in the chat box so I know we're all on the same page okay if there aren't any questions then I'm going to I'm going to wrap this one up here and we will we'll reconvene at the same time next week what economic days are we looking at uh just the the main uh the main dating you want to pay attention to the jewels is the non-farm payrolls tomorrow that's going to be driving uh the next phase of price action in these markets Nathan will you explain your trade pro FX trading uh Nathan that that's uh that would be a little bit that would double the length of this webinar today and I'm allocated 30 minutes so I wouldn't be able to do that today are you a member of the trade pro program Nathan okay well then you should be able to access all the uh the trade strategy videos uh through that program and uh and it's all explained there are it's a whole catalog of videos there are hundreds of videos uh going through all of that stuff okay if there are any other questions I'll uh I'll wrap this up here thanks very much everyone I hope this helps