 where we are right now already feeling like we're down here, you know, surfing the wave of the digital society. But what's really happening is back here, right? This is the tornado that's going to come when there's five billion people connected to the internet. I think about the social consequences, the political consequences, the issues of inequality and all these things. I mean, that is a tornado we're going to see coming and that's where we are headed. And of course, much of that will be happening in the emerging markets, the so-called BRIC countries. There's a lot of reasons for this, but many of you are already looking at this market. I'm going to talk about the other three billion, the 03B, going online in Brazil, Russia, India, China, Indonesia, and so on, going online. Look at just these graphs here, showing the penetration of internet access and the increase that we're going to see in China, India from 7 to 19 percent, Brazil to 74 percent in three years. Look what happens in America from 70 to 73. So clearly, all the growth and all the GDP growth, if you're looking for money, clearly. Those are not easy places to work. I do a lot of work there, but that's where we are going. Mary Meeker, who was one of the lead investors in Facebook, and still is, I think, has a yearly slideshow called the Mary Meeker Internet Trends. And you can download them as 180 pages. You definitely download this. But she, last year, at the end of last year, she talked about this and she said basically what's happening is that we're looking at the re-imagination of everything. How we pay, how we learn, how we get our music, how we watch movies, how we store our health data, how we buy stuff. It's quite scary, in fact, when you think about it. We have now the power in our hands, on our mobiles, than the president of the US had 10 years ago, in terms of information. So the re-imagination of just about everything is pretty mind-boggling. And what it really means is radical empowerment of the user. This is good for us as users. We can go online, we can complain about EasyJet or Ryanair or whatever. We can compare prices. We can fire ourselves through Facebook. So this is empowerment radical, but it's for companies and for businesses, this is like a perpetual WikiLeak. Everything goes out, everybody is transparent. If you are in business, you're essentially naked. I mean, people can look at your company and they want to see what's really happening. So that's quite a trend. And it's very cultural, like here in Korea, Tesco installed a service where you can buy groceries by using the mobile phone against a virtual wall. You can scan the product and hit buy, and it'll be delivered to your home later this evening. So it's a 3D shop in the subway. Would that work here? Kind of doubt it. So re-imagination is almost very cultured and learning is very cultured, but I think technology is totally refining the relationships between us and the data, information, who's a teacher, who's a learner, who pays whom, for what and why. That is a tall order. And especially the next five years they're going to really rewrite how this works. The keyword here, also from Kleiner Perkins, they call this Solomo, I'm sure you heard this before, social, local, mobile. And that has become the war cry of all companies who are starting up at this point looking at what they're gonna do in the next five years, social, local, mobile. I mean, clearly, I don't even have to ask here, you guys, who's on LinkedIn or Facebook? I mean, this will be like asking who's gonna go to the bathroom later? Now, everybody is on these networks. Everybody has a mobile, everybody's using local services and one where the others, whether it's coupons or logins or four square. So that's sort of where it's going. I had social, local, mobile, and in the connected users' mindset, we're always thinking, well, there must be an app for this. There must be a better way to do it quicker. This has become a default mindset. For example, now there's over 25 divorce apps. So if you're looking to get divorce, you can do that with an app now. It's too late for me, I already happened once before, so I wasn't ready for that, but maybe it would have helped me, I don't know. But people are thinking there's an app for that. And if they think about learning and education and finding out stuff, you can download Wikipedia with a thing called wiki offline. It's a five gig download and you can use Wikipedia offline. This is extremely helpful for your external brain, so to speak. But now the learners are the ones leading innovation. It's not the companies, all the schools, the institutions, the providers, it's the learners themselves, because we are now, what's called in the consumerization of IT. We have sometimes better tools than the companies that we work for. We bring our own device and we're using all these things and the company has this ancient system using Microsoft or whatever, or even more ancient systems. They use that system and we have apps. We have our own mobile. So we're actually more powerful than some of us. So this is basically a huge amount of disruption and opportunity. I don't have to tell you all the trends that are happening here now from the rise of data, smart, intelligent agents, this idea of a new interface technologies and abundant choice. You want to learn about something? Go to Ted.com, there's 2,500 videos. You can learn a lot of stuff there. Maybe you can also sort of, you know, learn about some way of life that Ted proclaims to tell you. But it's a very interesting scenario. We can learn, I mean, there's 50 shows on the web, forward.tv and big think and Ted, where we can learn. But one thing is clear that pervasive mobile connectivity means high speed, low cost, cheap devices, LTE with 10 pound devices. So to India, you can buy the Aakash tablet for $30. The Brazilian government is looking to buy 100 million tablets for $10 each to give away to the students for free, for learning. So pervasive mobile connectivity, that's going to happen in the next five years. High speed, low cost, maybe even free. We'll radically reshape the way we learn with the virtual classrooms and all that stuff that I'm going to talk about a little bit. But how disruptive mobile really is. If you're a Kindle user, for example, you know it has completely disrupted what we do with books and me as a writer has completely disrupted what I do as a writer. First, I don't need a publisher. That's bad for them. But second, I can write short books. I can be lazy. You know, just publish short books, which I am doing. But really the whole process of reading, now I have a queue on the Kindle that I would never have in real life. You know, my queue is on the Kindle, is 228 books as of yesterday. Would I have bought that many books if I had buy real books? I would have stopped at 50. So change is all behavior and if you're looking at this graph from Henry Blodgett, a little bit hard to see. The main thing is that the mind-share that mobile is taken away from all the other media. So people use more mobile access and they go away from television, radio and print in favor of mobile. So where is this going to go? Of course, it's convergence, but really it's very disruptive. Quite possibly, I think mobile means the end of learning monopolies, not say in a bad way, and the end of I don't know. Because you can always find out. There's no longer I don't know and of course, the bad part of that is there's no longer any boredom. And that kind of bores me. When you think about this, the fact that there's no boredom is not necessarily a good thing. Because we need that sometimes to be able to invent something, actually, because otherwise, we're always looking for the next thing. So this is a really big shift in society. And now we're going even further by essentially using the mobile as our external brain. And people want to go further and make the mobile our internal brain. Literally, like this guy. The internet is going to be in our contact lens. And when the internet is in our contact lens, you blink and you will go online. And if you meet somebody at a meeting, a conference, or a classroom, and you don't know who they are, your glasses will identify who they are and print out their biography in your contact lens. Oh, this is very useful. This is like Google Glass, I'll take it one step further, I suppose. But what does it mean for learning? Will I actually learn ahead of time or just pull up my internal Wikipedia implant or my language implant? Will I learn languages if there's automatic language translation, which there will be? Already exists, it's clumsy. But Dokomo in Japan has an app that you speak into in German, it comes out in Japanese or Chinese. It works. Will our kids still learn languages if they have this Star Trek-like ability to translate on the fly? But one thing's for sure, computing is becoming virtually free. This is the very first big rate array that they had to ship with the plane, had the power of my wristwatch, basically. Now we have this. Virtually free, basically. I mean, there's lots of things that aren't free in the under, but this is a huge shift in terms of what we're going to do. Every screen's becoming some kind of connected device and a way to learn. Every screen. Literally every screen. In the car, I mean, just go take a taxi cab anywhere in a big city, you see five or six screens in front. Now their Facebook screen, which is more important than the navigation, and the payment screen, and maybe a television is blasting at you on the rear seat. Every screen is getting connected in some way to learn. So in this social, local, mobile world, I think all of the processes of creation, of training, of production, of distribution, of selling are completely different. And look no further than the music business or the television business or the movie business for this kind of disruption and talk to the newspapers about what's happening to them. Same thing is going to happen to education. So basically what we're looking at is disruption, but also huge opportunities to reinvent things that are digitally native that only work because of the internet. And this is clearly a new multi-platform world. It's a world where we're not going to say, well, I've watched my television on the TV and I listened to radio in the car. It's going to be completely different. I'm going to listen to radio on television and read my newspaper on the car radio, which is reading it to me while I drive. So multi-platform, multi-channel, and fragmented. Whatever I may like, you may hate. And I may only ever watch a television show about how to fix my motorcycle because I like motorcycles. So it's fragmentation and that's clearly a challenge for business model. But you've heard about cloud computing and many of you are involved in this, but inevitably all content and education is and learning is content. All moves into the cloud. Our health records, our music, our textbooks. This is a huge shift for publishers. They're not quite sure if they should hate it or like it. But basically this is inevitable and it's going to cause situations where we're wondering are we learning for later like what I did when I went to school? You know, I studied theology when I was a kid and I studied music after that. So all kind of useless stuff basically. But I became a diploma jazz musician and I had to learn 800 songs just in case I had to play them sometime. So I learned for later. But now we have this kind of situation that you may know from a movie that some of you may know. Can you fly that thing? Not yet. Operator. Tank, I need a pilot program for a B-212 helicopter. Hurry. Let's go. So she downloaded the pilot program because it could be done on demand. Will we live like this? I mean, it's quite likely in fact, not essentially like this, but in similar situations we'll be looking for stuff on the fly to learn for the next day just like I learned about this topic in the last three weeks. I didn't know all about it as much as I do now. So that's sort of like a similar situation where we're looking at speed. You know, the need for speed, the game, if you have kids, you know how to play this, but the need for speed is essential. And because of the need for speed, we sometimes have the need for, you know, skimping along the surface, which is an interesting dichotomy because in the end, really, what it's all about learning is really about having an immersive experience. And it can't always be rushed. You can't always say, well, let me read a summary of this book. Then you haven't really read the book. It's like, you know, looking at a plastic version of food in the window, that doesn't mean you have eaten it. So is it a contradiction, speed and immersion? I think sometimes it could be, but clearly we're heading into a time of information tsunami, like I showed you in the beginning. More and more data every single day, more SMS, more email, of course, more social messages, more status updates, more what have you all the time. Very noisy world, looking at all the stuff that's happening. I mean, we're estimating that about 60% of the entire internet traffic will be done on mobile devices in the next three to five years. On mobile devices, it's only 10% now. So in this information tsunami, we need filters. This is why we need newspapers and publishers and radio editors and people who write programs. This is why we need teachers because they're filters. How can you possibly say that you're gonna actually learn from a Twitter feed? You can learn something, but the realization of what happens needs a filter. It needs to go into a place that goes a little bit deeper than that. Because it's not just about data, it's about digesting it. Could you drink from a fire hose? You can try, but you need a dentist afterward. I mean, it's possible, but what we need is a filter, some sort of plug-in that makes this possible for us. And this is the interesting part. Most of the information that we have, our information about things that we can learn, it's still hidden. This is like Mauna Kea in Hawaii, which is the biggest mountain in the world, not Mount Everest, most of it underwater. We're up here with our information. Most of the stuff that we could find out about is still down here. It's all going to come out. So this is a future knowledge that we're going to see and as Clay Scherke, a really smart writer and colleague of mine says, the problem is not really information overload, while it kind of is a problem, obviously, but the problem really is filter failure. So if we're going to learn something and get inside of something, we need better filters, better handling, better interfaces, better experiences. And that's the huge opportunity because of all the information that becomes available. And sometimes, of course, we're now in a situation where we get addicted to this flow, literally addicted. I mean, there's research showing that American kids, when they wake up at night, check their Facebook feed. I don't know if you do that, I hope not, but otherwise you'll be seeing me there. But anyway, this is really an issue, right? Addiction to information overload is also an issue. 43 internet addiction clinics and hospitals in Korea alone. I have visited one, it's quite an experience, but I don't have time to tell you about that. So, no, I mean, I wasn't inside, I came in from the outside. But anyway, abundance is inevitable, abundance of data. More information that we could ever humanly process. So therefore, curation and context and interface become crucial. This is an argument, of course, that ultimately says the user-generated content is very important, but it has to be filtered into something that we can actually put to work. As Nick was saying yesterday, and the behavioral scientist, ETIA, yeah, I was talking about yesterday as well, that information is useless unless we find a way to make it meaningful. So, this kind of preview of our future, now we are now heading into a world where the web of context is really happening and the web of things that are connected, the internet of things, and the quartz-wile version of the web of brain and thought extension, which is quite likely to happen in the next 10 years. So, what does that mean for learning? I mean, this is going to be a huge challenge for us to figure out how we can actually get in there. But let's remember, I think learning is really about conversation and experience and context. You can learn lots of data, but it's meaningless until you've chewed on it. So, there is a human challenge for us to create those interfaces in technology itself. So, looking at the multitude of feeds that we're seeing today, the question to me is, will real experiences remain to be in person, in the same space, or in time, or are they going to also become virtual? An interesting fact art here is, for example, with Guitar Hero, that some of you may know, but unfortunately enough for your kids to actually use this. Guitar Hero in the US has led to an increased sales of guitars for the last five years. People play Guitar Hero, which is like a mock-up guitar playing, plastic guitar and so on. But kids who play this a lot, eventually they realize, you know, it would be fun to really play the guitar. So, the virtual experience has led to a real experience. That's probably not always true, but I think there's a strong relationship between the two. But the future really is going to be rather complex if you're looking at all the things that are being invented. And I think we have to literally buckle up for things like augmented reality, telepresence, which is hugely expensive, but will go down to a couple thousand dollars in the future. And I've tried quite a few of the holographic haptic robots that represent us in a meeting. Sounds weird, but works, holograms, widely used on television now. Takes a half a million dollars to set it up, but yes, you can project me into some place. Automatic language translation, using reading devices and speaking devices. That's all within three years. Google Glass, I mean, you have to be sort of a sociopath to actually do this, but maybe some of us will find some use for it. We're basically looking at a situation of an entire interface revolution. Lots of really great things from the graphic user interface to the new way to the natural user interface. And that's really gonna help us deal with information and maybe Apple will come up with this thing called, I think, which will alleviate the need to learn anything or to do anything for that matter. But Steve probably thought this up. In any way, we're going into a world that goes from downloads and products and walled gardens to flows and services and open platforms. All of the success of the last 10 years has been in this direction, what I call the networked connected society. Google, Twitter, Facebook, QQ, Zing, Orchage, you name it, on and on goes. So if you're looking for something that's happening in mapping, there's this company called Waze that is crowdsourcing information for maps from people who are actually driving, pushing a button and saying, we have construction, we have a jam here, we have a radar camera over here and crowdsourcing information. This company is just about to be purchased by Apple because they have the best real-time information of maps. It's driven by people using a connected way of real-time gas station information and so on and so on. So Kevin Kelly who started Quiet Magazine, he calls this the switch from the download to the flow. And this is a very, very important principle because it really changes learning. Do we need to download and store stuff or are we switching like the internet is switching from over here to streams, to tags and the cloud? Most of you today are no longer bothering to download music for free or even download it at all because it's always there using YouTube or Spotify or whatever you're using, it's virtually there. The value of music of course has been diminished as a copy but in terms of society and the value of music, what people like about music has increased but commercially has created a huge mess with this equation of the shift to a fluid system. So this is what's happening with learning, it's becoming fluid and that changes the rule of the equation of what happens in terms of the value proposition and we're moving at warp speed. We're moving at a speed that we would have previously thought is impossible. In many ways we thought about this years ago and we said it's going to be fast but now finally it is. In the next three to five years we're looking at mind-boggling changes there. As GigaOm says, over 70% of Apple's revenue and 40% of IBM's comes from products that are impossible to offer just a few years ago. Now think about that for your company, the stuff you're going to invent today, how long will it actually be new? And in three years the things that we're going to use as a standard like we do today with Twitter didn't even exist, the timing is totally compressed. So I think what that means is that work is being redefined, what does it mean to work? How do we work, where do we work and of course that totally redefines learning. It goes together. So in this scenario we are becoming sort of a global brain because we can connect to others on global issues and we can connect to others on important changes to those global issues and sometimes it's this sort of multi-layered information that we can get into using the global brain. I think it's an important part of the future is that we're all to some degree becoming a global brain. And then we have adaptive learning technologies like this one from McCraw-Hill that you may know about the smart book that actually learns with the student what is the best thing to do in the learning process in the next step. So it's adapting the program as you do this and this is a very important technology of course that we're going to see not just from these guys but in general, this idea of digital native learning technologies, things that are only possible because we are online and because we are connected. And here's a scary part that I think is also a huge opportunity we're entering the area of intelligent electronic agents. It sounds like science fiction but you can go to a store now in many countries all over the world and you can try your own address and then you can Twitter about it in a mirror and send it off to your friends and they can let you know if you should buy it. I haven't tried it myself and nobody would care if I did. But the virtual fitting room, Disney now has a wristband that they put a billion dollars into this technology that allows people to go into a theme park and be completely recognized who they are and offer customized products and services and bonuses and coupons, all that kind of stuff. This is a thing that is from the XPISE Foundation. It's called the Tricorder, the remote analysis of your body. You can actually, there's a poker, you can poke your finger and it will tell you what your status is, medically speaking. It's just now being invented. This is a Star Trek product. So this is really amazing, this way of talking to your smart meter at home and have it change the air condition remotely. This all sounds like science fiction, the internet of things, but that's here. And lots of really interesting products are being invented. So now it's a question that I wanted to post to you. What is your world view? If you're from New Zealand, you see the map like this. This is a Kiwi map of the world where New Zealand and Australia's in the middle, the rest is down here. It's a reverse map. But what is your world view? This is a very important question because if you're looking at an industry where I've worked in for a long time, as a musician, you may recognize this, the music business. They've done a fabulous job of adjusting to a digital reality of life by suing people and by making things unavailable. So in return, their revenues have declined 74%. So if that's not success, I don't know what is, but there's a great quote. The illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn and relearn. Unlearn. And what did we have to unlearn the music business? Simple. We had to unlearn that the artist is a slave and the customer is stupid. Bad assumption. We had to unlearn just the underlying operating mechanism of how this all works. And here's the reality for content, which I think learning is to a large degree also content. We are experiencing this in this era of transition, you know, from the physical to digital, from the analog to digital choice, there's a value reduction because there's friction removed. So a song that used to cost a pound on iTunes, if we were to actually pay for it in Spotify or other servers, it would be a penny or 10 cent. That's the value reduction, about 50 to 90%. You put all the movies of the world online, everybody pays to watch the movies, is not going to fetch as much money as if you were buying a DVD. Clearly, it's a huge reduction in overall value. But the good news is this, and this is really the encouraging part, you have 50 to 100 times the number of potential users. Because it's virtual, you know, you can access anywhere, you have the other three billion coming online, you have lower cost of distribution, and you have new business models. So ask yourself a simple question. You're going to sell a DVD with an educational product to 500 people, or you're going to sell an online service or an app to 500,000 people for one 20th of the price. What's better? I mean, do the math clearly, second one is better. But there is a huge difference, of course, in that it's much harder to control. So I want to play this short movie because it's an interesting view into the future of what really the issue is there. Again, this is the USS Montana requesting that you immediately divert your course 15 degrees to the North to avoid a collision over. Please divert your course 15 degrees to the South to avoid collision. This is Captain Hancock. You will divert your course over. Negative, Captain, I'm not moving anything. Change your course over. So this is the USS Montana, the second largest vessel in the North Atlantic fleet. You will change course 15 degrees north when I will be forced to take measures to ensure the safety of this ship. Over. This is a license measure. Is your call? So, yeah, that was kind of a misunderstanding. But I call this the toxic assumptions. You know, the assumptions that we assume are true, but they have never actually been true and they're not true now. We just always thought that they were true. And there's no better example in a music business for that, of course. But what are our toxic assumptions? What are we assuming is true that actually isn't true and that we've believed in? So we have to abolish some of those and maybe first discover them, of course, what they are. And here's one of them, intellectual property. That is, of course, important. And I don't mean to write copy by a penny means, but look at this slide here from GE, saying that the top reasons for not collaborating with other companies is lack of IP protection, meaning that if we collaborate, somebody else could say that they're involved and we would have to share the outcome. This slide is even more dramatic. Number one reason, lack of IP protection confidentiality and even more interesting, the next slide, shows that in the UK, you're not doing so bad. Here, the largest concern of protection is only 58% here, but in Brazil that we always think of a cool place is 86%. So Brazilians are really worried about intellectual property. But do our assumptions hold true that if we can control copyright and claim it for ourselves, we're going to be better off? The pharma business is showing us that's not true. The pharma business is now shifting to an open crowd sourcing model of finding stuff outside of their own R&D. This is really something very interesting. I think if you're looking at the movie business, this is a illustration of the movie business, hugging the intellectual properties, think twice about this. Think twice about whether that protection is going to actually yield something beyond the immediate feeling of ownership. I think what we're seeing is here that the learning sector has an evolution. It used to be this idea of centralized top-down broadcasting of information, and now there comes a networked brain, a global brain. Becomes an ecosystem, and this is the big difference. In this ecosystem, you can be a big wheel. You can be a big publisher, you can be a big technology provider, but you can't be the wheel. And that is a substantial difference. An ecosystem is broken when the parts of the system don't perform their functions, you know, some other wheel takes over, but if there's 90% of them breaking down, the whole thing falls apart. So an ecosystem, which is a topic of my next book, by the way, is this idea of saying, you know, what's happening with learning, for example, with the iTunes, the Open University on iTunes, in a social, local, mobile world, that it's becoming a whole new ecosystem, and I think this means for learning institutions, they have to become part of a larger ecosystem. My view is that because I work a lot with colleges and also I'm teaching at various places and I do a lot of corporate development as well, this is the kind of world that will live in the past, you know, under a bubble protected from the outside, and the future really is going to be like this. This bubble is becoming part of a larger ecosystem. And that's a good thing, because obviously, you know, the pie is getting bigger, it's not that we're gonna go back and eat from the same pie and compete. We're actually growing this, but you can see a substantial difference here, clearly, is that this is a collaborative thing. It's an ecosystem. So this guy, Paul Barron, who came up with a bunch of network principles of network society and so on about 50 years ago, he's got a very interesting slide, where he's talking in his book about how the world is shifting from centralized to decentralized to distributed information. Schools are, of course, centralized, used to be rather, companies like Coursera are distributed because they're distributing others. And Salesforce, Chatter, or Yammer, or all these peer-to-peer, or Facebook, for that matter, is distributed. So the information is shifting in this way, and basically what's happening here is that all three of them will coexist, because we need different things at different times. But if you're going to build something in the future, you're very unlikely to build a centralized entity, because clearly that is requiring a lot of details, a lot of holding on to stuff, while distributed commerce and distributed information, peer-to-peer and user-generated information is clearly taken over. I think the rising tide will float all of those boats, all three of them. And this will be very interesting in the future because I think we're living in an end world, not in an either or world. So sometimes, compared with television, sometimes you want to use your cable television to watch a football game or something, and it really works, and that's great. If you use your mobile phone to do the same thing, chances are it wouldn't work because somebody else is using it at the same time. There's enough power there. So we have to have both. We have to have both the institutions. We have to have both the user-made content, and the question is how do we combine them? How do we create our own reality? So what's happening here in general, I think is that we have this trend towards what I call open AMAP, open as much as possible. Tim O'Reilly, who's a publisher, has a great saying that says when you want to gain speed and you want to gain an audience, you open up as much as you can because that brings people in, and of course that means it's often free. But when it's about monetizing and trying to figure out how to make a business model out of it, then you have to figure out a way that the open becomes a way of how you can turn around revenues into a certain direction. So that means you're getting a little bit more closed. And that is an ongoing dance. Ask yourself a simple question. If LinkedIn, which all of you are on LinkedIn, of course, I assume, let me ask who's actually paying for LinkedIn, for the premium service. You can admit it, it's okay. It's kind of foolish, but I do it, so not to say it's foolish, it's actually really good. But if LinkedIn, seven years ago, I was number 7,000 on LinkedIn when I signed up. There's 278 million people now. If LinkedIn had asked us for $10 to sign up, who would have signed up? Nobody would have signed up because it wasn't clear what it was. But now LinkedIn last year made $780 million with premium subscriptions, HR services, advertising. They created a model out of being open and then closing down some of it, for example, if I want to email 50 people through LinkedIn, I can't do it unless I buy the premium. So that's where they, no, this is the whole premium model. This is very, very important, for example, with this issue of the pay wall in the newspapers. So if somebody tells us to say, okay, now we have to pay or go away, 98% of us go away, because it's not the right time to pay yet. So we have to figure out how we can convert at the right time. KlaxoSmithKline, as I said earlier, the pharma company has created an open innovation lab for tropical disease research, where they donated one billion euros worth of research for free. And why are they doing this? Not because they're good at their heart, maybe they are, kind of doubted though. The billion dollars that they let go creates another 20 billion in research that comes to an open network where people are participating using their own information. The crowdsourced ideas, sharing intellectual property, great book, but TAPS got a good friend of mine, just came out last week, it's called Radical Openness. And that teaches us about how they can actually work in a capitalist society, in a business scenario. But I think if you're going to build something today in learning, in terms of technology, building a walled garden is mission impossible. Unless you, as brilliant as Steve Jobs, where you can run the world according to your own liking, rest in peace. He did it, congratulations. But you're going to do that? You're going to build a walled garden? I wouldn't do it. I think we're looking at a mindset evolution in society, but also in business, from this idea of ownership, of industrial development, production, to this idea of a networked business scenario. And this is apparent everywhere. It used to be, for example, that learning and development and training was considered in most companies to be sort of accidental, or it's just there somewhere. It's like sustainability. You look down here and you say, oh, there it is, yes. It also matters. But it's becoming center stage now. How to learn something in the company has become the number one issue. If your people don't have knowledge, if they don't move, if they don't create, you are dead, you're going to be dead for sure. And you should leave a company that doesn't do that because there's no point sticking around. Just like sustainability is becoming center stage now, mindset evolution of what's called the weak economics, creating something together. So the future in this sector and in many others is about hypercollaboration. It's not about hypercompetition. It's not about how to stamp out the other guy who has another software like this or has another offering like this, but it's to actually collaborate to create collaborative business models to create ecosystem. For example, Mozilla has a fantastic way of creating collaboration through badges, called open badges. So when you are an engineer that does something really good, you get this badge and that basically shows people that you've been approved by the crowd of Mozilla. So basically, I think we need to take the lid off these collective resources. And that's happening on a global scale. That's pretty mind-boggling for example, what Mercedes-Benz is doing crowdsourcing information about how to build the next car from their drivers. You get invited to this website where you can contribute, they have an open innovation network. I mean, this is a really conservative German company. This is not a bunch of startup guys. Lufthansa came up with an error cargo challenge. And then somebody won like, I think a half a million euros here inventing how error cargo can be changed. So let's take the lid off these collective resources because they're vast. Looking at sites like Kickstarter and those that are already doing this, how can you do that as part of your company? Craft has a great concept called the Collaboration Kitchen where they invite people to cook up recipes for the new product. And Starbucks has been doing this for a long time of course, but this is a really powerful thought. How to collaborate there, how do you do this? Another thing that's happening is that, imagine we are in this Rolodex with all of our linked in connections and everyone that we know, there's a huge contextual Rolodex developing. If I have a problem and I need to find out about how people use educational textbooks on the internet in China, I can research, but I can just go to my network and raise a flag. I can go inside my Rolodex using smart or others and I can ask people, you're in China, we've met XYZ, can you send me a link? And in three seconds, I have a bunch of people saying, you should look here, you should look there. This is a huge learning advantage, learning from each other, tapping into each other's minds in this way. This also unfortunately may lead to this idea of quantified workers. Now, workers who are basically being raided, for example, you may know about this service called Cloud, K-L-O-U-T, to where you get assigned a rating based on your activity on social networks. I have no idea why my is 71, maybe somebody rigged it up or something, but if you have a rating over 50, you get an upgrade in many hotels because apparently it's somewhat important, whatever that means. And then there's Salesforce chatter and of course Yammer to where you can essentially quantify people who are working with you to see how much value they are generating in the network. This will be used eventually as a way of promotion, as a way of figuring out who's actually creating value rather than just noise. And of course now we're going to touch data. We're going to be able to touch the data from the people that work. We're going to literally go inside of their brain and find out what they need or what they can give to us. And as Kevin Kelly says, we're going to a whole new level of visuality. Having visual information, infographics, this is a very big trend for learning. Gamification, I think you've heard about this, turning learning into games. This is a major trend and I'm not entirely sure sometimes what the outcome of this is and it's been overhyped to some degree, but the Gardner report says 40% of global 1,000 companies will use gamification as a primary mechanism to transform business operations and also learning. Gamification means doing something that used to be very frustrating and boring, turning that into an exercise and doing something and you can see some of the graphs here. There's a huge business into gamifying processes, learning something as part of a game. An example here is how Marriott has created a Facebook game to recruit people. So you play this game on Facebook and you authenticate yourself as somebody who knows a certain thing and once you've unlocked a certain level, then you can apply for the job. So this kind of gamification is a mechanism that you know only too well because in a way Facebook and LinkedIn are also games. You know, we're playing a game of swords there by publishing and pushing stuff to each other. Deloitte has a leadership academy where most of what they do is based on game mechanics, learning stuff in a playful way. This is a huge business opportunity in my view is to consider what this actually does. If you've ever been to Burning Man, I'm not promoting it, I'm just saying that if you don't know what Burning Man is, you're a deep dropper. But my good friend Albert Einstein said, wisdom is the residue of time wasted. I think this is so true. Playing is a competitive advantage. Playing with information, playing with ideas, and this the Google mantra is 20% of an engineer's time is spent on playing with new stuff. Maybe that's the reason why they're so widely successful for their new products. And playing with information, getting inside of information is really where we come up with ideas that are human. We don't need ideas that are gonna turn us into robots. I mean, that may make some money in the short run. But if you wanna know about this, watch this new movie called Robot and Frank or Frank and Robot, you understand where this is going. So the best technology in my world will help us to be or to remain or even become human. And this is the key challenge in my view and learning is, how do we go from the human to the machine, to the data, to the knowledge that's inside of other things? What's the interface? I think efficiency should never come at the expense of humanity. I got this from Bill Teller at HBR, which is very true. If we focus on being efficient in learning, I think we're gonna bark up the wrong tree. It's really about being more human, about creating this interface, because as again, my friend Albert Einstein says, imagination is more important than knowledge. I don't know if he would agree, I think it's knowledge, obviously, and information is very important. But I don't believe that we can have this sort of techno-fix approach to our issues. No, we invent another technology to solve a problem that we created with yet another technology. Like we're going to create machines that suck the carbon out of the air because we drive too many cars. And what's the next thing we're gonna geo-engineer the entire world so we can keep those machines running? So there's an issue I think that we should face. We need algorithms and technology, but we also need what I call, humorism, something that works actually for people. This is very important because clearly for learning our brain is a lot more than big data. I mean, there's a huge business in big data, but there's a lot more about other things than just data. Imagination, my view, will matter more than ever before. And whatever you're creating in the learning industry should take that into account what imagination would mean in the future, and also what this means, which is resilience. The entire topic of the Davos meetings last week in Switzerland was this. How do we create resilient societies? If something fails here in the system, if this piece of the spider web collapses, the spider doesn't freak out and goes away, it just continues to catch somewhere else or it fixes it. Only if 90% is broken there, you go somewhere else. Resilience, that's what we need for learning. We have to learn how to be resilient rather than depend on one thing to work at the same time. I think learning now becomes, because of our digital society, learning becomes dynamic, real-time, social, mobile, local, fluid, peer-to-peer, and gamified. And what used to be with learning is also still going to be there. Our old system exists in parallel. It's like we're going to watch television on the internet, doesn't mean we're gonna give up cable anytime soon. Eventually, maybe, some of us. But this is a key slide, of course. So I'll give you a summary and then we're gonna have some questions. You can download the slideshow at gertcloud.com later or even now, if you wish. Here's a summary. First, embrace and design for social, local, mobile. All the major trends in society and in learning and in opportunities in business come from this angle. I mean, five years ago, Eric Schmidt from Google said it's mobile first. Five years ago. And it actually is today. Mobile is first. It's about multi-channel and multi-platform. Whatever you're creating has to work in different places so you can use it when you're traveling and then at home you can use it on television and then you can print out something. It's all one part of the same platform. So centralized, decentralized and distributed as the slide was showing from Paul Bernin is they will coexist. I think there may be sort of an overlap at a certain point to where the distributed model will eat into the central model. But for the time being, I think the next five years we're going to have coexistence and the change of business model there. It's an and, we're all not in either or world and it's also a fragmented world where we are looking at what's coming together between ourselves and what comes from the middle. Next generation interfaces. Voice translation, augmented reality, 3D, tangible data. Clearly that is something we have to look at starting with augmented reality. But don't be a robot. Find and dissect and boot your toxic assumption. This is very important. What are we believing that is there, that's sort of at the core? Like when I worked in the music business, their primary belief was very simple and that was if we don't control distribution, the copying of our music, we're dead. Reality is you control distribution and you're dead. And they're finding out today that control distribution is not an issue because it can't be controlled. They have to control attention. It's a whole different cup of tea and they're finally getting to that. So if a technology doesn't help us to be more human, forget it. I wouldn't be interested. Technology is going to create an algorithm that I have to comply with like cloud. I'm not interested. This is very important for learning I think. Open as much as possible is becoming mission critical. To gain an audience, to get speed of deployment. What is not a good idea is to make everything free, just to make it free and not have a way to do anything afterwards. So the freemium only works if you have a way to get to the next level. So this is kind of a dance between open and close but clearly open as much as possible is becoming mission critical. The craft example I consider starting your own collaboration kitchen. Look at your competitors and people outside of your space and say can I work with these guys? You know the most common trends in our media, television, music and so on is to work with telecom providers and mobile operators. Complete the outside of your old routine. So consider starting your own collaboration kitchen and reduce overload. Talk briefly about this, get better filters. This is also really important for learning because when you have overload you don't learn and don't forget to detox.