 Hi, my name is Liam Rowe currency trader and trading coach at trading 180.com and welcome to this week's a plan demand for its and gold Fundamental and technical analysis if you are new or warm welcome to you And if you are returning an equally warm welcome to you and last week I Asked for you guys to see if I could get a hundred likes on the weekly analysis video and thankfully You gave it a hundred and sixty one likes In exchange for the likes. I said I would do a webinar free webinar Really the rules to the fundamental analysis game. You won't see anything like this on YouTube There's a lot of misunderstandings about fundamental analysis. So if you want to as a thank you for Giving me the hundred likes target and you way exceeded that I To those of you who want to join the webinar this Thursday The 14th of October at 8 p.m. London time Please email info at trading 180.com with the subject title F a webinar. I've had a few Emails from people who have not put that in the title although they want to be a part of the webinar They they haven't put that and you need to put that in the webinar So if you haven't put that in the in the email subject title, please make sure that you've put F a webinar So I can put you on the list and the zoom link to that private Webinar which will not be For YouTube, I'm not going to put it out anywhere, but but only for those who actually were in the Who would emailed me are going to get the recording of that so they can watch it Later and also some of the things I want to be covering in The webinar are going to be the missing information the misinformation about fundamental analysis using fundamental and Diverges is a converges is to select currency pairs likely to trend the importance of liquidity and slippage buying the rumor And what is priced in gathering fundamental evidence? 2021 euro dollar fundamental analysis case study. That's going to be very interesting So I'm going to be showing you, you know the the euro dollar so far and really the turning points and fundamental turning points not only with and how it applied to price and also risk of sentiment so It's my process from really from top to bottom and also as well. Don't forget that The trading 180 2021 course enrollment opens Monday the 11th of October visit trading 180.com and it will close It's only open for a week and it's going to close next week Sunday the 17th of October And it won't be open until 2022. It's going to be my last intake many people think, you know, they can kind of join whenever they want Unfortunately, that's not how it goes. I really like to focus on it on a group of people at a time So we can get the best out of out of the mentoring And so that's the best way to really To for you guys to to learn in that kind of environment is in a kind of class environment where everyone's on the same page So I will be closing that 17th of October never to be opened again for this year And maybe, you know, I don't know I might do it January February March depends on how I feel Might reopen it again then so it's going to be a last chance for this year So visit trading 180.com if you are interested anyways, let's get into the this week's fundamental analysis and looking at the week ahead So the week ahead Let me just zoom in a little bit We've got third quarter earning seasons and that is with the stocks One minutes from the last FOMC meeting will be watched for further cues on the on the feds tapering timeline Right, that is going to be a really important Measure and I'll get into it in as we analyze the dollar So other important releases to follow include US and China and India inflation rates US retail Cells UK on Australia jobs report Eurozone industrial output and Japan machinery orders. So Yeah, I'll get into the technicals and I guess the fundamentals now Bit more in-depth, but that's what's coming up this week some as a market moving news especially with regards to the the US at the moment, so let's look at the dollar index the DXY and The dollar index is just a measure of dollar strength against or weakness against a basket of the major currencies like the Euro the yen the pound for example and At the moment we are really at these these highs and the dollar index hasn't really sold off even though We did have some really disappointing news In fact, I should really be that one. It should be this one So US payrolls growth misses again with the smallest gain of the year But there was some positive news around this so unemployment rate did fall as size of labor force shrinks and but the employment rate only rose by 194,000 in September which was the smallest this year So US jobs growth in September was the slowest this year signalling a Tempering of the labor market recovering and complicating a potential decision by the Fed Federal reserve to begin scaling back monetary Support before the year ends so the non-farm payrolls increased 194,000 last month in an upwardly revised 366,000 gain in August a labor market department report showed on Friday the unemployment rate fell 4.8 partly reflecting a decline in labor force Participation among women and meanwhile average hourly earnings jumped. So there's a lot of pressure There's a lot of pressure With regards to what the Federal Reserve should do. So the September increase was weaker Then all but one estimate in a bloom big Bloomberg survey of economic of economists The median projection was for 500,000 rise the US stock fluctuated Treasury yields rose and the dollar remained lower. So they expected 500,000 only got 194,000 so on the surface the numbers seem You know quite quite bad, right? But there again, there was some positive numbers regarding unemployment and actual wage growth which gives the Fed a bit of a headache and Initially, you know, it was probably like looking for you know, any kind of short trades on the dollar but After doing some weekend reading the Fed seen pushing ahead with November despite payrolls and myths So jobs likely to meet the test for substantial further progress and wage growth and unemployment rate suggest job market tightness So Again, there is some positivity around it and the Federal Reserve Policymakers will likely look through September's weakening in the US labor market Recovery and take their first step to removing pandemic stimulus at their meeting next month So this is a quote from a chief economist With high-frequency economics and he says Rubella Faruqi Says that this does not change the Fed's taper timeline even though I probably would have thought it was it would have For the Fed for the Fed taper the standards on both inflation and a labor market have likely been met However, this is little about policy tightening which has much more stringent test and is some time off So there's a difference in fact between tapering and tightening basically hiking rates so although they may start to potentially look to Taper which is basically the reduction of of bond purchases basically debt buying Hiking may be some time off So at the moment the Federal Reserve and the dollar is in a bit of a precarious situation There's there's a lot of uncertainty whereas if the if the job numbers had met their 500k Target, you would probably expect some sort of if you know upward move It might have gone down a little bit But generally the the path for these resistance would have been probably to the upside now although the rumor is that the Fed may look past the poor recent jobs numbers Personally, I'm not so sure on that and I think that Ultimately the dollar probably may start to look to potentially start to range or You know move to the downside again depending on the narrative So if you believe or you think that the the dollar should get weaker in the short term This is the dollar dollar index what you're just looking at this is just for confidence, right? So you look at the dollar index. We're at quite a really kind of important supply zone The next really supply zone is all the way back at the 96 area So if you think the dollar is going to strengthen On the back of the news or the potential rumor that the Federal Reserve is still going to look to tighten then Pretty much what you're looking for is is really kind of pullbacks And I would say the nearest pullback would be at the 93 area So if your prices do pull back down here Then what you're looking for is buy trades on the you know the dollar yen dollar Swiss dollar cad is confidence right in that demand zone on the DXY but for me, I think Overall run probably more still more bullish dollar, but I think them the dollar Move is probably now going to be a bit overdone in the at least in the short term Because of the disappointing news, so let's see what happens even though the Fed are Potentially still going to taper does that mean that the dollar really is going to continue trending higher if there is disappointing news So for me, it's it's highly unlikely. I think the data has to support the narrative There has to be some good jobs data in order for the the Federal Reserve to continue to look to high crates At the dates that they say they will so a bit indifferent on the dollar so but I think long term should be Potentially a buy so any kind of pullbacks. I think are decent Buyers, but for this week, I'm a bit indifferent about the dollar looking at the dollar yen And the dollar yen again, we got a bit of a reaction I think a lot of traders were getting short in and around these areas and Prices have pretty much gone to the upside So we could see matter of fact Price that may be a bit of a stop-hunt at the top if price start to close back inside that level But for me the dollar is still a buy over the Japanese yen The Japanese yen and monetary policy terms are way behind the curve when it comes to Hiking rates or even looking to you know taper at any point so any pullbacks into these zones I think in the short term You know this one one four six area down to the one one one area I think is going to be a really nice buy and I think in fact if we're looking at this from a range low to a range high now making higher highs That higher low is going to be the strongest area of demand So I think this price does pull back to that one eleven area I think that actually is going to be a decent buy technically I do like that that also has some confluence of Some support and resistance right here as well So technically there's a lot of things that do line up with this So I think ultimately I don't want to be a buyer of the dollar Against the yen in and around this area if that was a currency pair I'm looking to if I was looking to buy the dollar looking to sell the dollar Probably not against the Japanese yen unless there is some sort of risk-off sentiment that really takes over The market looking at the dollar Swiss dollar Swiss again technically not fantastic, but Again similar with the dollar yen the Swiss franc is a risk-off Currency and again way behind the curve when it comes to monetary policy and hiking rates So I think again Any pullbacks into any of these zones potentially are still buying opportunities if you want to still buy the dollar But I do think the upside potential Is is a bit done if prices do come up? I think this is going to be definitely a level that traders are going to look for this is the yearly You know the yearly hired twenty twenty one highs And I think there's going to be a lot of profit taking in and around here the question You know I say to the traders in the private mentoring group is what is going to push prices way beyond here You know if if there's you know uncertainty around the dollar and hiking rates Then you know there's got to be a limit to really the upside move So I think if prices do come up to this this area here. It's ninety three zero point nine three fifty I think that's actually quite a nice short technically fundamentally, I'm not keen on buying the The Swiss franc but from a short dollar and a weaker dollar perspective That could be a decent area to look for any kind of short trades or any long trades at these demands If you get a pullback Dollar CAD is now actually on my list right is on my list of things to trade Reason beings because the Canadian dollar actually had on Friday even though the headlines were all about the non-farms miss the Canadian dollar had a great jobs number really kind of exceeding expectations So I think there's a bit of a divergence there the Bank of Canada are looking to potentially look to also taper and hike at some point, so I believe if there is some Divergences and I think there probably is between the Bank of Canada and the the US dollar I do like this pullback for a short this one to six area for a nice short trade It also is a bit of a supply zone a wide supply zone there But within that wide supply zone you've got areas of Support and resistance which I do like so I think that area there is going to be really nice for a potential short as well But the immediate short I think for me is going to be any kind of pullback into that zone if you do want to be a buyer of the Dollar against the US dollar against the Canadian dollar then pretty much I think now is a decent area to look for a long trade although we have touched this area once already So twice might not necessarily to be the best area I think probably down into this one two three fifty to one two three Round number would be probably a better zone again. Just looking at we're looking at yearly highs and yearly lows in fact This was probably be the yearly high right here. This is the yearly low so Where are we okay? We're basically at fair value. So I think anything any pullback for the Canadian dollar It's going to be a cheap area to look for any kind of short trades So I do like that and again these zones would be a bargain areas for if you're looking to buy the US dollar New Zealand dollar US dollar I'm really interested technically in this area here not necessarily the best area from a Not the best trade to take from a fundamental perspective But I think we've disappointed in dollar US dollar news I think the New Zealand dollar who have just hiked rates any kind of pullbacks into this I think that was the yearly low as well. Yep into this yearly low area. I think it's going to be The more I kind of think about it. I really do like this area technically so While I normally wouldn't look for any kind of trade on on two pairs that are potentially strengthening I do think with the non-farms Disappointing and really the Federal Reserve In a bit in a bit of a situation if prices do start to pull back into this this yearly low I do think that that would be a really nice Technical buy trade for the New Zealand dollar as long as the New Zealand dollar still remains Positive on their On their their monetary policy as well as a risk on sentiment remaining because if in a risk-off situation Pretty the dollar looks to strengthen so that would actually you know that may actually cause the The New Zealand dollar to weaken temporarily, but who knows but I do like this area Not that's right on that area I do like this area here to buy the the New Zealand dollar Technically not necessarily the best fundamental trade in the world Pound dollar so pound dollar The pound has really kind of suffered recently with I think more than most with supply chain problems Not what I'm gonna hesitate to put that as a supply zone, but we are in definitely a demand zone here let me just put that around here technically and You know recently if you've been reading up on any of the UK news we've had You know a bit of a petrol crisis supply chain problems as well as a Noncoming energy crisis. We've got the furlough scheme. I think I'm not sure if it ended or not or whether I think I did read something that I think Rishi Sunak our Chancellor Extended the furlough somewhat. I'm not too sure of the exact details But also as well there was universal credit that was cut Which really kind of hurts the most vulnerable in society and if the government want people to spend then You know by cutting universal credit To to the most vulnerable that doesn't help with With people wanting to spend right because they got less money Every weekend every month and 20 pound is quite a hefty cut as well So that may have an effect on the pound going forward. So just looking at the Bank of England's Bailey warns of potential damaging inflation for the UK so inflation being The the fact that we've got high energy prices on the horizon so the Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey warned of a potentially very damaging period of inflation for British consumers as the resumption of pre-pandemic spending habits Puts pressure on supply chains. So in an interview Bailey said the UK inflation would exceed the banks previous forecast So that's really high inflation. I think the previous forecast I think was maybe about something like 2% or something But a flurry of news this week undercut the Bank of England's original view that much of the jump in prices willing will prove transitory so transitory being kind of temporary So now they're thinking that it's obviously going to be a bit more of a sustained inflation So that's a problem and it comes amid growing bets that spiking inflation will force the Bank of England to High crates in the near future, but for me, I'm not so sure about them having to high crates because Central banks will generally high crates in a environment where GDP is growing and recently GDP has kind of stalled and there are obviously, you know Issues that are on the horizon in the data. So I can't see the Bank of England really look into high crates I think they're trying to basically Talk up the pound and keep the rumor going so that they can they would rather get a stronger pound than a weaker pound Right because a weaker pound puts in pushes inflation up And if the pound gets weaker and inflation is already high then it just pushes inflation higher Which is going to be a headache for the Bank of England So for me, I will continue to potentially short the the pound And if you are looking to short the pound or financial advice, that's going to be a really nice area Supplier zone for a short. I think the the the US are even though bad or not the best Non-farm news. I still think that they're they're going to be ahead of the British pound So that is a decent this this decent short here technically this this long trade here is decent at this one three four Fifty area so decent and I think we've got summer We've got a major level of support and resistance Which is basically just supply pass supply and demand zones that have been projected into the future So there's a there's definitely a key level in and around that area. That's been traded. So Let's see what happens there. Not the best fundamental trade But I think the path at least resistance should probably continue to the downside Euro dollar so Euro dollar On the back of the The bad non-farm payroll news, I think everyone's pretty much expecting now the the euro to start to to rise and I would probably have to potentially agree with that and I would have agreed with that 100% had I not read, you know previous, you know, dollar news, right? So the Fed Seen to potentially move ahead with the taper Again, I don't know how true that is or how believable that is, but if you do believe that then Obviously the path of these resistance would be still to the downside, right because you're buying the dollar in the face of Of bad data and if they're still looking to taper that should potentially have a potential positive Spin on on price, but If there is if the Fed come out and pretty much say this week in their statement that they're not too sure or they're they're quite dovish in their statement and Maybe have you know have a bit of a change in tone Then I think this area is actually going to be really a really nice buy The only problem with it technically is that if you look to the left, there's actually no Level of demand past level of demand to really kind of take this To take this trade there are some I think there's some maybe some lower timeframe trades that you may want to look towards But from a daily supply and demand zone for me, it's there's nothing there So I would really have to wait for proof of value proof of value meaning that the market says that there is definitely Demand for the euro and this is basically the limit. This is an expensive area for the US dollar Once prices move to the upside then what you want to look for what I would probably look for is a pullback into that zone And then look for any kind of buy trades Providing that obviously the dollar is still, you know uncertain regarding, you know Hiking rates and tapering and also there's positive some positive news around the euro now with the euro The ECB's Villaroy says inflation to fall below 2% by end of 2022 Which isn't necessarily the most positive thing right because in order for central banks to high crates you want to see Inflation above that 2% targets so Here was Here was a quote that said a bump even if it's high doesn't make for a long-term trend Villaroy said in an interview on Francis into radio. I don't think it's a part of a spiral even if we need to remain very vigilant And so what he's saying is is that again, he doesn't think that any rises in inflation Are going to be Trend it's going to be maybe just temporary So Villaroy also dismissed a question about whether the ECB should consider raising rates Saying that the first error one can make in monetary policy would be to overreact in a temporary Variate so to a temporary variation in prices. So he's definitely not hawkish on this, you know And although he is just one member You know, there's definitely dovish tones to this so ultimately the way to kind of look at that is that Sorry the the European Central Bank are not really looking to high crates anytime soon So this play if you're looking to buy the euro, it would be more based off of Anticipating dollar weakness then euro strength per se. So With that being said or unless obviously, you know, the euro they do kind of change their stance on this as far as There are more dead more hawkish tone start to develop and the data does support that narrative But this would be more of a play of buying or shorting the dollar rather than buying The euro so with that being said if that's the case, I would really want to see price Prove that there is demand some demand there for the euro and then look for any kind of pullbacks But again the path of these resistance I would say is still potentially to the downside. So any moves if not to this Supply zone this supply zone here is going to be a really nice technical where area this 117 area for a potential short euro yen and the euro yen again Pair that we were looking at in the group not necessarily just just yet But it seems like the yen is is really kind of got, you know weaker We've got some you know some major demand zones here in fact, I think we were waiting for the Price to kind of pull back down to this Demand zone around here potentially before looking at getting long But who knows where we'll get down there anytime soon I do think though if prices do you know come down to this zone here? I think that is going to be a really that one two seven six area I think that's going to be a really really really nice. So I'm going to move this area just along here So yeah, I do think that that's actually quite nice for a buy Although the euro isn't necessarily the greatest buy in the world. It is You know, I would say that they're they're they're ahead of the Japanese yen and the and the And the Japanese economy in the Bank of Japan's monetary policy Any kind of risk-off sentiment that comes into the market though the Japanese yen will strengthen So any of these areas here are decent shorts, of course You want to wait for more fresher areas of supply because those are the areas that will Likely to hold better than areas that have been touched several times Australian dollar US dollar so Fundamentally, I'm really not interested in this at all I think the Australian dollar is going to be a buy at some point, but it's just at the moment The their data they got disappointing news. So potentially If I was looking at anywhere within that zone for a buy for the Australian dollar, it would be somewhere around here so anywhere from This zone this 0.7 22 Price area where we've got a bit of support within that demand and even just below that I think that's really nice for technically and even better would be that area there again when you think about, you know, the the the yearly highs and lows you've got You've got I mean yearly highs yearly lows to be fair is like that's probably the yearly higher right there If you look at the most recent high and lower prices contained between then this has to be a bargain area For the Australian dollar and so anything below this area and come if it comes down to here We'll be seen as a bit of a bargain. I think many kind of pullbacks They are lagging behind though the the Federal Reserve the RBA Again, they're very dovish on their their currency and again the data has to support the narrative So I think really any pullbacks to supply zones I think are going to be decent short trades and Again, just looking at potential some some potential confluences You know that area there with which is acted as support and resistance in the past You've got nice supply zone that area there is decent for a potential short, but not really my pet I'm really interested in trading Aussie yen again with some weakness in the Australian dollar That supply zone definitely got taken out. We're looking at that as now demand decent demand in and around here Right now is actually quite a nice Shorting opportunity. I do like that technically for a short again You'd have to really Understand why you're looking to buy the Japanese yen or shortly Australian dollar The only time I would really look for this is to is to understand where you know risk off sentiment is so for me Not necessarily fantastic Within that wide zone of Demand I would probably say this is an area that would be quite nice also as well If you want to go down into lower timeframes to get a bit more detail of where local areas of support and resistance are within these demand zones Daily demand zones is obviously, you know worth doing as well But I do think that this area here has been touched once twice. It's been definitely traded. There's a lot of trading activity So for me if I was looking to buy the Australian dollar pullbacks into that zone would be that 80 just around that 80 round number would be Would be quite a decent buy trade I think But again, not really a Pair down. I'm interested in unless the Australian dollar really kind of gets its act together Where on when it comes to data and finally gold so gold a bit of a mixed bag again Trades in in opposite to the dollar So if you do believe that the dollar is going to get stronger Then you're looking at short trades, right and you can see as the dollars been getting stronger Gold has been you know going to downside if you zoom out a little bit We've got some yearly lows around here I think any kind of buying opportunities for gold is going to be really really nice In and around this area here to 1680 area Just be careful because that is an area prime for stop hunting lots of liquidity around here So that's potentially a great area to look for a trade doesn't mean you should take one But also it depends fundamentally on what you think is going to happen with the dollar, right? If the dollar comes out with some really good news, as I said, you're going to see, you know You're more likely to see prices and gold prices continue to go down but any reversals or misfortunes in the dollar any kind of Fed dovishness when it comes to hiking rates or a delay in hiking rates are tapering Then you should see gold to go to the upside So we've got let me just delete some of this stuff off of here from a demand zone perspective I think we have just come into this demand zone here It's created that demand zone there. So so decent quite decent also as well You've got an area of support and resistance in that Zone there as well. So that's decent. I think for a for a buy Right again, believe in that the dollar is going to get weaker at some point So, yeah, that's pretty much it for this week again, just as a guess a quick reminder that the The trading 180 course Enrollment opens on Monday the 11th. So check that out at trading 180 comm and also we've got the rules that are fundamental Analysis game free webinar Thursday 14th of October at 8 p.m. London time Please don't be late if you're more than 10 minutes late or 15 minutes late I'll probably won't allow you into the room and you'll have to watch the recording afterwards That's otherwise we could get a lot of disturbances I need to kind of flow and talk rather than try to deal with certain problems that maybe certain people have So try to log in at least 30 minutes before the start 25 minutes before the start get you, you know your Zoom sorted and then we can hopefully have this webinar Technical Problem-free if you know, I mean because generally when we Say generally but sometimes when we have these webinars and sometimes there can be some technical issues for some people so we can try and sort them out before We actually start the webinar. So So, yeah, try and try and get there at least 30 minutes before when I Email the zoom link to you anyways guys looking forward to the webinar and showing you really how to trade the fundamentals and the rules behind the fundamental game anyways guys have a great Week and see most of you or some of you on thursday and take care guys speak soon