 Thanks Keith. So move the slides on please James, thanks. Hi everyone, so my name is Owen Bellamy so I'm head of the power sector team at the CCC. So we've got a presentation for you here, it's about 20 to 25 minutes. I'm going to cover two main sections in the presentation. So we've got some slides on the kind of overall approach to the six carbon budget at the economy wide level and the target itself and then we've got a section on specifically on the energy sector and including electricity generation and hydrogen. So with a bit more detail on kind of those specific parts of the analysis. So James can you move thanks. So I guess in terms of the approach to the six carbon budget as a whole we looked at three main scenarios for how we could get to net zero by 2050. So that's an engagement scenario, an innovation scenario and what we call a headwind scenario. You can see on the chart there that those are split in on the grid in terms of behaviour change and innovation. So the widespread engagement scenario is a scenario which has high levels of behaviour change. So for example further action on dietary changes and aviation. On the innovation scenario that focuses more on kind of particular reductions in costs and availability for key technologies at the high end of the kind of innovation spectrum. And then there's a third scenario called headwinds which has less behaviour change and less innovation than the other two scenarios and that's kind of more dominated by infrastructure changes for example in CCS. So all three of those scenarios get to net zero by 2050 but they get there in different ways and then James click on. There is also a fourth and then a fifth scenario. So the tailwind scenario combines the extra behaviour change that's in the engagement scenario and the extra innovation that's in the innovation scenario and combines those into a kind of optimistic very high end scenario which actually gets to net zero before 2050. And then James lastly we have a kind of central balanced pathway which the six carbon budget recommendation is based on and which is designed to keep open the option of being able to achieve all of those exploratory scenarios by 2050 on the path to the six carbon budget in 2035. So if you could move us on James please. So this chart then shows you the pathway for the carbon budget as a whole. So that's the balanced pathway in purple there and you can see that the balanced pathway goes through at least a 68% reduction in 2030 which is the recommendation for the UK's nationally determined contribution and then a 78% reduction in 2035 on the pathway to getting to net zero in 2050. And I guess the key point to highlight is that the pathway slightly front ended there and more particularly on electricity generation we'll see the reasons for that in the coming section. Thanks. So moving on to the energy sector and in particular electricity generation and hydrogen. So a few slides just highlighting the main overarching changes in energy demand out to 2050 and this is for the balanced pathway. So you can see a gas at the top there and oil demand by sector and both oil demand and gas demand fall very substantially by 2050 compared to today's levels. So oil is down 85% and gas is down 70%. And you can see for gas the kind of two big users of gas are yellow and green. So yellow is electricity supply so we'll see there is still use of gas as gas CCS in power generation and also in fuel supply as well, particularly to make hydrogen. And then oil you can see almost all oil use phased out by 2050 except in the purple chunk there and that purple chunk is aviation. So oil use particularly petroleum restricted to aviation in the long term and gas used only for CCS and power generation and in fuel supply particularly for production of hydrogen not used in buildings in the long term. And just a chart to show you the balance of hydrogen as well in the scenario. So the hydrogen economy I guess grows from nothing today out to kind of very substantial levels in 2050. And again this is the balance pathway but considering that the size of the current electricity generation sector is about 300 tail hours we're looking here at a hydrogen sector which is broadly equivalent in size to electricity generation sector today. And if you look at where that demand comes from in the right hand side chart you can see I guess the two big sectors there are shipping and which is the kind of pinky colour above the yellow and the light blue which is manufacturing and construction. Those are the kind of two biggest uses of hydrogen in 2050 but obviously also spits across some of the other sectors to a kind of smaller extent. And I guess the next biggest one you can see in yellow there is power generation which leads us nicely onto the next set of slides which are particularly focused on power and electricity generation. So just showing you here the balance pathway and the demand for electricity under the balance pathway. So you can see here that demand for electricity goes up very substantially in the period from 2020 to 2050. So demand approximately doubles from current levels of around 300 tail hours up to 6 to 700 tail hours in 2050. And that splits across a number of sectors as we electrify, increasingly electrify the rest of the economy. And in particular the biggest new area of demand you can see there is in the purple wedge and that's from electrification of surface transport. But there is also electrification across the scenarios of buildings non-residential and residential of manufacturing and construction and some other smaller sectors as well as using electricity to produce hydrogen which is the yellow bar at the top. So really the story of the scenarios is a move away from fossil fuels and towards electrification where possible. So how do we generate that doubling of electricity demand by 2050? Well this is a chart of the generation mix over time and out to 2050. And I guess the key point is a very large expansion of variable renewables. So you can see the pink section there going up to 80% of generation from variable renewables by 2015. There's a phasing out of unabated gas for electricity generation by 2035 in the balance pathway. And that means that all generation from 2035 onwards is low carbon generation. So the challenge over the next 15 years is to move to a low carbon system and then to meet the new electricity demands that are coming in a low carbon way. So you can see an increase in variable renewables but also an increase in low carbon dispatchable generation which is the orange bar there. So that's generation to balance the variable renewables in a kind of midmeric way and that's either in our modelling gas with CCS and or hydrogen. Also behind that is an increasingly flexible electricity system. So that includes things like demand side management. So from the expansion of electric vehicles and heat pump demands we can flex that demand on different timescales in order to manage the variability of renewable generation. It will require an increase in storage capacity and there are a variety of technologies which could play that role. It will require an increase in hydrogen production and in particular using surplus electricity generation to create hydrogen. And also not shown on the chart. Also interconnection will be important as well as an extra avenue for flexibility. So what does that mean for emissions in the power sector? Well hopefully everyone knows that the past 10 years for emissions in electricity generation have been very successful and in fact the most successful of all the sectors in the UK economy. So emissions have fallen nearly 65% since 2010 and you can see that in the black dotted line there. That's a result of moving away largely from coal towards renewables and some unabated gas. The challenge over the next 15 years is to move away from the last remaining source of fossil fuels, the last remaining source of emissions sorry which is unabated gas generation. In our scenarios that happened by 2035 you can see by 2035 emissions are very low and then the challenge over the next 15 years after that is to expand the use of low carbon generation and emissions continues to fall slightly out to 2050 as variable renewables take an increasingly larger share of the system and as gas CCS capture rates increase as well. So emissions in the power sector are almost completely decarbonised by 2035 and then low carbon from from there on. Just to touch on the role of hydrogen in electricity generation, so hydrogen actually has a kind of dual role in our scenarios for electricity. So also a source of low carbon generation itself but also a potential new demand for electricity as well. So it can be produced using electricity or by methane reformation with CCS and the role between electrolysis and methane reformation changes somewhat over time as the costs of those technologies changes. So in the 2020s there's a focus more on methane reformation with CCS that's because the cost of electricity would be need to be relatively low in order for electrolysis to be cost competitive. But from the 2030s onwards as the cost of renewables falls and as the potential for using surplus generation to provide that that electricity increases then that makes the role of electrolysis in hydrogen production more attractive and you see the balance shifting towards more towards electrolysis compared to the 2020s and in fact by 2050 in the balance pathway not only is there nearly 200 tail hours of domestic hydrogen production that is evenly split between gas CCS and sorry between methane reformation and electrolysis. So just to touch on costs I've got a couple of slides on the costs of the different technologies and then what that means in aggregate for electricity generation. So just to briefly show you the costs that are seen across the scenarios so the balance pathway and the headwinds and engagement scenarios take a relatively somewhat conservative view on renewables costs so they fall slightly. So these are in 2019 prices which are slightly higher than the 2012 prices that are often quoted so that would be the equivalent of 35 pounds for variable renewables in 2050 on a 2012 price level basis. So a slight fall in immuable costs out to 2050. In the innovation and tailwind scenarios we assume much more significant reduction in the cost of renewables approximately halving compared to the levels seen today and that obviously changes the balance of electrification across those scenarios and the innovation scenario in the tailwind scenario therefore have a higher level of electrification driven by those lower renewable costs. And firm power so in particular nuclear we see as being more expensive than renewables even out to 2050 and dispatchable low carbon power with gas CCS at the low end of that range being competitive with firm power but becks slightly more expensive and towards the higher end of that range there. So what does that mean in terms of kind of more aggregate costs for electricity generation? So this slide shows the additional investment costs in the dark blue line and the additional operating costs in the yellow line there of moving to net zero compared to running a fossil fuel based power system. So you can see in terms of investment costs and those kind of peak in the early to mid 2030s particularly as we're expanding supply but while technology is still being deployed and while costs are still coming down. So we see investment costs falling from the kind of mid 2030 onwards as the cost of those technologies starts to fall once they've been deployed at scale. But in terms of operating costs obviously the cost of these technologies in particular given that the system is dominated by renewables which have no input costs in terms of their fuels actually running a variable renewable based system is cheaper than running a fossil fuel based system. So actually there's large potential savings on the operational cost side and by 2050 those savings outweigh the additional investment that's required in that system. So by 2050 actually the balanced pathway is cost saving. So you can see the minus 10 outweighs the plus five there compared to its cost saving compared to a high carbon equivalent system. There's also obviously a range of unquantified benefits that would come with moving to a net zero system. So I've listed a few of them there. We haven't attempted to quantify these in the report but those co-benefits could include improved air quality, potentially lower electricity prices and also industrial opportunities for an expansion of some of these kind of key growth industries and also employment opportunities for a just transition. So what are the policy recommendations for the power sector that fly out of that analysis? So I've highlighted five key policy recommendations that we have described in the report. So the first one is that we need to deploy low carbon electricity generation at scale starting in the 2020s. So on the renewable side we need to move up to wards a system which is heavily based on renewables in the long term. That means achieving the 40 gigawatt target for offshore wind by 2030 that the government has. In the balanced pathway going up to 100 gigawatts of offshore wind and in the innovation scenario potentially up to 140 gigawatts of offshore wind by 2050. We need to develop the markets for dispatchable low carbon generation so gas CCS and hydrogen in order that we can phase out unabated gas by 2035. If I skip to that one next we think the government should commit to phasing out unabated gas power generation by 2035. We think that's cost effective. They need to publish next year a comprehensive strategy for actually achieving that. So demonstrating how the markets for variable renewables and that dispatchable low carbon generation can be developed in order that that can drive unabated gas off the system. And then we think by 2030 they should be in a position to regulate for no new build of unabated gas plant and also for a firm pathway to zero unabated gas by 2035 subject to ensuring security of supply. That plan will also need to cover the development of a flexible electricity system. So putting in place the measures to enable more demand side management and also bringing through the storage hydrogen production and interconnection that would be required to deliver that system. And then lastly there's an important question about networks. So we need to make sure the electricity networks can accommodate that doubling and potentially tripling of electricity demand that will be coming in the long term. And that's actually not necessarily something that can be put off. So our scenarios have a 50% increase in electricity demand by 2035 compared to current levels. So this is something which is going to need to happen early on in the 2020s in order that we can put those investments in place and future proof of network. And I guess lastly there is a question about the overall market framework for delivering net zero. And we think they should publish a long term strategy for how the electricity market is going to function in a net zero world which is going to be dominated by zero marginal cost generation. So variable renewables with no fuel costs which is going to need a kind of different market structure compared to the current market structure which has been developed over the last couple of decades and mostly focused on a kind of more thermal based system. So we think they need to bring forward that market framework as soon as possible and definitely before 2025 in order that the changes that are required can be put in place on the time frames that are needed. So just a couple of more slides to go. So just again a kind of slightly more infographic version of the previous slide but just to highlight that the electricity sector needs to be basically fully locum by the mid 2030s. And that means actually the policies for delivering that need to be thought about in the coming decade and definitely over the next kind of well definitely in the first half of the 2020s I think you can see from the boxes at the bottom just pulling out the key points. So we need to put in place the policy framework and the markets within the next few years in order that they can be deployed at scale and that the system can be completely decarbonised by 2035. And then the challenge after 2035 is to deploy that and keep up with the increase in demand. So I think just one more slide on hydrogen. So I'm not going to cover all of these but just to kind of pull out the key points in purple there on hydrogen supply. So I think hydrogen needs to be focused on areas that cannot feasibly decarbonise without it. That means we need to get on with developing the supply chains to bring forward that low carbon hydrogen. And we talked about the kind of balance between methane reformation and electrolysis already. And then we also need to make sure that that low hydrogen is incentivised to contribute to emissions reductions. But it doesn't bias those solutions towards hydrogen in the cases where electrification is competitive. So we want to see a level playing field not to reuse that word too much in the current circumstances for both hydrogen and electrification. And I think that should be it, James. Thank you. Thanks very much.